This time of year might be the most interesting of the offseason because while so many free agents have found homes, there are now legitimate big league players who don’t know where they’re going in a few weeks for spring training. We’re not quite there yet, but some semblance of panic will set in soon enough and I think we’ll have a crazy few days on the market to watch guys find new teams. I actually believe the Royals will at least be active participants in this market, even if they don’t end up with anyone. So I guess what I’m saying is that even though this offseason has been insanely boring, it can still be redeemed.
- I wrote a couple months ago that the Royals had to do something. At the time, my thought was that they needed to either go for it and spend some money on free agents and make some win-now trades or they needed to really start the rebuilding process. I was of the belief that they should go for it one last time because when you have a chance to win, you should take that shot, but I’d have been fine either way. The one thing the Royals couldn’t do was just stand pat and hope their team would be better in 2017 than they were in 2016. I hadn’t really considered the option of the way the Royals have gone, and I can’t say I hate it though I’d still have preferred they take one of the two previously discussed paths. In trading two of their potential and most replaceable pending free agents, the Royals have acquired four years of club control over a probable starting right fielder and four years of club control over someone who I think can be a member of the rotation during his time with the club. You all know how big of a Jarrod Dyson fan I am, so I’m never going to love that trade. And I still think the Royals maybe could and should have gotten more for Wade Davis, but I have to say that those moves at least make sense on paper. Karns probably has more value than Dyson and Soler might be more valuable than Davis, but I think it’s fair to say they aren’t likely to be better than their trade counterparts. That said, four years of them is worth more than one year of each. So no, it’s not the path I’d have taken, but it’s definitely not the worst possible timeline.
- A lot of people have talked about Karns and his ability to shift to the bullpen. Just looking at what he can do with a good fastball, excellent curve and good enough changeup, I think it’s fair to assume he could potentially be a solid reliever, maybe even a very good one. One issue I have with that is he apparently wasn’t interested in becoming a reliever when the Mariners shifted him to the bullpen before his back injury ended his season in 2016. Obviously that’s fixable. I’m not sure how excited Davis was to be moved to the bullpen when he was, but that worked out okay for the team. The other is that I think Karns can be a successful starter, and if Wade Davis could have posted a 4.00 ERA in 180 innings in the rotation, he’d have been more valuable than he was as one of the best closers in baseball. You can argue that, but I won’t agree with you. And when you consider that the fifth spot in the rotation was setting up to be a battle between Mike Minor, who didn’t throw a single big league inning in 2016 and Chris Young, who we wish we could say the same about, it makes sense that Karns will be in the fifth spot in the rotation to start the year. The Royals may say there’ll be a competition, but I’d be surprised if it ends any way but that.
- And for my last point about Karns this week, I’m actually kind of digging how the 2018 rotation is stacking up. One caveat to that is they need to get the Danny Duffy extension done, which I still think will happen before the season starts. Not to gloss past the 2017 season, but the Royals rotation in 2018 could actually be solid. There’s some development that would need to happen, but if Yordano Ventura can finally harness his potential and Matt Strahm can ultimately convert to the rotation, the Royals would have Duffy, Ventura, Strahm and Karns as four guys who can get swings and misses. That’s two lefties and two righties, which doesn’t really matter, but if you can find that kind of balance, it’s always a good thing. The last spot in the rotation could go any number of ways. Ian Kennedy could very well be back if he doesn’t opt out (I still think there’s more of a chance than people want to give it). Kyle Zimmer could be healthy (I mean, it’s possible in theory). Josh Staumont could fill that role if he can take that final step and refine his command. A.J. Puckett could be ready to go by then, too. And if all that fails, along with some other possible back of the rotation prospects, the free agent market could work to fill that final spot. I could see the Royals having interest in Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Marco Estrada, Jeremy Hellickson, Lance Lynn, Michael Pineda, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman or even a reunion with Jason Vargas. There’s a fair amount of questions, but there appears to be some rotation depth for the Royals moving forward, and that’s a good thing.
- A shout out to Hunter Abbey for uncovering this, but there’s some interesting news for the Royals on an options front. We had all been under the impression that Billy Burns was out of options, but a bit of a loophole in the rules means that he actually can be sent down in 2017 without consequence, which is a really good thing for the Royals roster crunch. Prior to being traded, Burns had been optioned to Triple-A by the A’s on July 15th, and after the trade, he was recalled by the Royals on August 3rd. That means he spent 19 days in the minors during the 2016 season. In order to use an option, a player has to spend 20 days in the minors. So whether the Royals did this intentionally to create roster flexibility in 2017 or not, they have it now. That means if the Royals do set their sights on acquiring a full-time DH like a Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss, Logan Morrison, Chris Carter, etc., they could conceivably send Burns to the minors to make room on the roster and use Whit Merrifield as their fifth outfielder. It would still give the Royals a big need of a left-handed bat on the bench, but I still think signing Stephen Drew and trading Christian Colon for whatever they can get makes a lot of sense for this club. Regardless, they have more flexibility now than we’d realized before.
Considering they brought up Burns and promptly sat him on the bench with very little playing time I’d be very surprised if keeping the option was not the exact reason they did it.
The Karns comp to Wade Davis is right on. And let’s remember that Davis was not thrilled with going to the ‘pen, either. Royals were able to change his mind.