On September 2, 2018, the Royals completed a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles to up their record to 45-91, 32 games behind the division leading Cleveland Indians. If it was not for the absolutely atrocious Orioles, the Royals would have the worst record in baseball by nine games.  Kansas City has won seven of eight games to get here. Five of those wins were over the Orioles and Tigers, so don’t think the darkness has ended, but it’s something.

Of course, revisiting 2005 makes some sense, given that was the year the Royals lost 106 games – the worst in their history and this year’s team was, at least until a week ago, making a helluva run at besting that. Similar results? Yes. Similar teams? Not so much. At least not anymore.

On that dreary night in 2005 (actually it was 81 degrees with a light breeze, the baseball was dreary, perhaps it was a delightful night to sip four beers and eat two hot dogs), your Kansas City Royals trotted out this lineup:

• Aaron Guiel, CF.  He would go 2-for-5, upping his batting average AND on-base percentage to .148. The 32-year old was actually on the verge of getting hot and would record a trio of three-hit games in the next week.
• Terrance Long, LF. The 29-year old (I remembered him being older) would also go 2-for-5. He had that September and 12 games with the Yankees the next season left in his major league career.
• Emil Brown, RF. Finishing off the first of two competent seasons with the Royals, the 31-year old Brown went 0-for-3 with two walks.
• Matt Stairs, DH. The 37-year old Stairs would finish that year, one in which he played in 127 games, with a .373 on-base percentage. He would double and walk in five plate appearances and Chip Ambres would pinch run for him late. Ambres, by the way, would play 53 of 80 total major league games that year for the Royals.
• Mark Teahen, 3B. This was the season before ‘The Season of Teahen’, but the 23-year old rookie would go 4-for-5 with two doubles to push his average to .238 and edge his on-base percentage over .300!
• Angel Berroa, SS. The 27(?)-year old Berroa would go 1-for-5 in this game, one of 159 he would play that year. Angel would strike out 108 times in 2005….and walk 18. Say what you want about errors, but Berroa would make 25 that year.
• John Buck, C. The 25-year old was in his second major league season and his 0-for-5 that day would drop his average to .216. He would actually ‘get hot’ to end up slashing .242/.287/.389 for the year. In other words, he was John Buck.
• Justin Huber, 1B.  My goodness I was sure that Huber was going to be somebody. The 22-year old had gotten a whole five games in June and was now back with the September call-ups. He would go 2-for-5 that day, play the bulk of September and do a decent job of tempering the excitement surrounding him. Players who also played first that year: Stairs, Mike Sweeney, Tony Graffanino, Joe McEwing, Eli Marrero and Ken Harvey. And you were mad Ned Yost was playing Lucas Duda too much.
• Denny Hocking, 2B. The 35-year old was in his last major league campaign. He went 2-for-5 in his eighth start in nine games.
• Zack Greinke, SP. The 21-year old would pitch into the sixth, allowing three runs on seven hits. This was the season before Greinke quit baseball for a time and he would go 5-17 with a 5.80 earned run average. While pitcher records and ERA are generally poor indicators, they pretty accurately reflect Zack in 2005. Greinke was followed by Andrew Sisco who gave up two runs in 2/3 of an inning, Ambiriox Burgos who did the same, Juan Carlos Oviedo (Leo Nunez) who went two scoreless and Mike MacDougal who gave up a home run to Rod Barajas in the tenth. At the time, this bullpen had some hope as Sisco was 22, Burgos 21, Oviedo 23 and MacDougal 28 and all were entertaining/maddening.

Fast forward to the lineup of September 2nd of this year.  If you are reading about the Royals at this point in this season, I’m going to assume you are die-hard enough to not need much player embellishment:

• Whit Merrifield, DH. (29)
• Alex Gordon, LF (34)
• Hunter Dozier, 3B (26)
• Ryan O’Hearn, 1B (24)
• Jorge Bonifacio, RF (25)
• Rosell Herrera, 2B (25)
• Brett Phillips, CF (24)
• Alcides Escobar, SS (31, but Mondesi is just 22)
• Meibrys Viloria, C (21)
• Jorge Lopez, SP (25, followed by Tim Hill, 28 and Kevin McCarthy, 26)

Now, we are a bit unfair to the 2005 team as the September 2nd lineup was missing the injured David DeJesus, a good player who was just 25-years old, and Mike Sweeney who was sort of that team’s Alex Gordon. Back then, there was hope – some of it logical – that Teahen and Buck would both develop into good regular players. Teahen actually did for a bit, but could not sustain it.  That hope is probably little different from what we are currently thinking about O’Hearn, Bonifacio and maybe even still Dozier.

Greinke, after a couple of years, would turn into a star and the hope, of course and as always, is that the similarly-aged Mondesi will do the same for this version of the Royals. While you can say that Greinke helped the Royals become good by getting traded for Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar later on, the 2005 Royals were seven years from even being considered ‘decent’ and no one on that roster was part of them getting to that point.

Can we say the same of this year’s Royals? Cynically you can say yes and without question the lineup above (even with Mondesi and Perez in it) is not a lineup that gets to the playoffs next year or the year after, but it just feels like a better group than 2005.

One can say that mistakes were made and resources wasted at the start of the year that got the Royals to the point where winning seven of eight MIGHT save them from the worst season in franchise history. One could also say that mistakes were made and resources wasted during the season that are keeping this team from the number one draft pick. Intentionally or not, Baltimore has done a marvelous job of being so bad that not even the Royals can tank enough to win less!

Are the Royals seven or eight years away from being in contention again?  Maybe, but I think there is hope that they are more like four years (with some luck and a hot start, maybe three) and if that is the case, there are names in the lineup from September 2nd that will be part of the next round of success.

If nothing else, that makes 2018 better than 2005 and, for the love of god, hopefully will make 2019 better than 2006.

If, like me, you find yourself drawn to a rerun of The Office despite the Royals being on the other channel, I thought maybe we would take some strolls down memory lane to take our minds off a team that is so strikingly removed from the 2015 World Champions that one might just wonder if it even really happened. In doing so, I am not seeking out a particularly significant game or season, just randomly going back to this day in time for something, if not better, at least different.

For no reason whatsoever, I chose to start the journey by going back to this past weekend in 1974.

The Royals entered July 14th with a 43-43 record, 4.5 games behind the AL West leading Oakland A’s. It was 96 degrees that Sunday afternoon in Royals Stadium as Detroit and Kansas City played the rubber match of a three game set.  As it was a Sunday, Kansas City was not playing its regular lineup. Frank White, still a season away from becoming a regular, was leading off and playing second to give Cookie Rojas a rest. Al Cowens was in center for Amos Otis and Tony Solaita was batting third and playing first.

The Royals regular right fielder that year was Vada Pinson, who was batting second. Way back in 1961, Pinson had led the National League in hits with 208 on his way to hitting a career high .343. That is relevant because Norm Cash, playing his final season (he would, in fact, play in just 12 more games after this one) was in the Tigers’ lineup and he had led the American League in hits in 196 with 193 on his way to hitting a career high .361 that year. Cash would never hit higher than .280 in any season after 1961. As for Pinson, he compiled 600 or more plate appearances in 10 different seasons, hit over .300 four times and end his career with the Royals in 1975 with 2,757 hits.

Speaking of hits, Detroit’s Al Kaline was also in his final season and marching towards 3000 hits – a mark he would hit on September 24th, but he was not in the lineup this hot Sunday (he was 0 for his previous 17 leading up to this game). That is relevant because another 3000 hit guy, one George Brett, was in the lineup for the Royals.  At that time, the 21 year old rookie had amassed 49 career hits and entered the game hitting .234. As it was a ‘Sunday lineup’, Brett had moved up from his normal 9th spot in the batting order to hit 7th.

The starting pitcher for the Royals was Bruce Dal Canton, who in his previous eight starts had gone eight innings or more five times and not made it out of the second two times. Dal Canton, who was on his way to throwing a career high 175 innings in 1974 had toiled the full 10.2 innings a month earlier to these same Tigers, losing in the bottom of the 11th on an Aurelio Rodriguez walk-off single.  Mickey Lolich spun all 11 innings for the Tigers in that one. Mull this one over:  11 innings, two pitchers and a game time of three hours flat!

Back to July 14th, Joe Coleman was on the hill for the Tigers. The right-hander was just 27 years old and was already making his 286th major league appearance and 264th start. Coleman, who had started 38, 39 and 40 games the previous three years and would make 41 starts in 1974. He would make just 59 more starts afterwards.

Detroit started the scoring in the 2nd when Jerry Moses singled in Norm Cash. The Royals would even the game two innings later when Fran Healy hit his seventh home run of the year (on his way to a career high nine). The Tigers, thanks to Frank White’s second error of the game, put two on in the fifth, but could not score. Kansas City loaded the bases in the sixth, but Healy grounded into a pitcher to catcher to first base double play to end the threat.

In the seventh, Healy failed to catch a third strike, allowing Ed Brinkman to reach with two outs (when was the last time you saw that in the majors?), but Dal Canton simply struck out the next hitter. A Jim Wohlford double and Al Cowens walk gave the Royals two on with one out in the seventh, but Cookie Rojas, pinch hitting for Freddie Patek grounded into an inning ending double play.

John Hiller replaced Coleman in the 8th, working around two baserunners in what would be the first of his SIX relief innings that day. He ran into trouble again in the 9th when a Brett infield single was followed by an Al Cowens single, only to see Cowens run into an out at second. Hiller then intentionally walked Rojas to get to White, who popped out to end the frame.

Steve Mingori replaced Dal Canton, who had now pitched 20 innings in two starts against Detroit and had nothing to show for it, in the tenth and would allow only  a hit and three walks over the next FOUR innings of relief work. All the while, the Royals could muster little against Hiller. They even resorted to pulling Amos Otis out of his day off to replace Cowens to no avail.

Doug Bird threw a 1-2-3 14th and the Tigers sent Jim Ray out to throw the bottom of that inning. Ray was in his last major league season and had more walks than strikeouts that season. Otis led off with a single followed by a a bunt popout by Rojas. Another bunt by White pushed Otis over to second and then Vada Pinson was intentionally walked (the FOURTH Royal to be intentionally walked that day). Kurt Bevacqua, acquired just six days earlier and who had pinch-hit for Solaita earlier in the game, worked a walk and then Hal McRae walked in the winning run. A walk-off walk, if you will.

Game time, three hours and thirty-nine minutes. The teams combined to hit 3-23 with runners in scoring position, committed six errors, hit into five double plays and left 26 runners on base. McRae was hitless, but walked three times (twice intentionally) to up his on-base percentage to .396.  Tony Solaita struck out in all three of his at-bats.

Kansas City would eventually get to nine games above .500 and close to within four games of the A’s on August 26th, only to lose 14 of 15 games between August 28th and September 14th. A string that included shutout losses to Vida Blue and Catfish Hunter in a Monday doubleheader in Oakland sandwiched between a home series with Minnesota and an away series with California. In fact, here are some of the pitchers that the Royals lost to in that string: Gaylord Perry, Mike Cuellar, Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, Wilbur Wood, Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven, Blue, Hunter, Frank Tanana (back when he three HARD) and Nolan Ryan.

As we all know, the latter half of 1974 saw George Brett become GEORGE BRETT and also see the September major league debut of a 23 year old Dennis Leonard (who would go 0-4 in five starts). By 1975, the Royals were legitimate contenders when they won 91 games and were poised to make the post-season in six of the next ten campaigns.

In many ways, the 1974 Royals team was the team before the team got good squad – maybe a bit like the 2012 Royals.  One could, with a little imagination, see a contender in that group. Sadly, no such imagination exists that allows us to think the 2018 team is the ‘team before the team got good.’ As such, perhaps we will take some more trips back in time and see what we flounder upon next time.

Well, not really, and certainly not when it comes to the Royals’ offense. This is still a collection of bats that managed just nine runs in the six games leading up to Tuesday’s explosion and is still a team that has yet to win a game when the other team scores a run.  That early season performance – and it was admittedly pretty awful hitting weather for all of the games with a good team like Cleveland scoring just six runs in three games with two of those coming against Brandon Maurer (if you score runs against Maurer do they really count?) – led some to call this current Kansas City unit possibly one of the worst offensive groups in history.   If not the history of baseball, at least in franchise history.

Sure, the Royals batting Ryan Goins sixth in back to back games, but was it really as bad as this?

• August 30, 2004 versus Detroit (a 9-1 loss):  David DeJesus CF, Desi Relaford LF, Joe Randa 3B, Abraham Nunez RF, Calvin Pickering 1B, Angel Berroa SS, John Buck C, Aaron Guiel DH, Ruben Gotay 2B

or

• August 14, 2004 at Oakland (a 6-1 loss): Desi Relaford SS, Joe Randa 3B, Mike Sweeney 1B, Ken Harvey DH, Abraham Nunez CF, Aaron Guiel LF, Ruben Mateo RF, Ruben Gotay 2B, John Buck C

Yes, in a 1-0 Royals win earlier this year, Cheslor Cuthbert batted cleanup, protected in the lineup by Paulo Orlando in the five spot. That is not a recipe for success, but is that as bad as this?

• April 26, 2005 versus Minnesota (a 2-1 loss): Joe McEwing 3B, Tony Graffanino 2B, Mike Sweeney DH, Eli Marrero 1B, Angel Berroa SS, Emil Brown RF, Terrance Long CF, Alberto Castillo C, Matt Diaz LF

or

• August 29, 2005 versus Minnesota (a 3-1 loss): Aaron Guiel RF, Chip Ambres CF, Terrance Long LF, Emil Brown DH, Mark Teahen 3B, Angel Berroa SS, John Buck C, Denny Hocking 2B, Joe McEwing 1B

With certainty, the Royals will be putting some ‘interesting’ players in ‘interesting’ spots in the order this season. When posted, the Kansas City lineup will not cause rampant angst among opposing starting pitchers, but will it be worse than this?

• Doug Mientkiewicz batting third FIFTY-TWO times in 2006
• Tony Graffanino leading off 31 times in 2004 (and Angel Berroa another 28)
• Can anything that happens this year really get much worse than batting Willie Bloomquist third in 2010, even if it was just once?  Other than batting him second SEVENTY-FOUR times the year before?

Listen, in no way do I think the 2018 Royals are going to emerge as an offensive juggernaut when the temperature rises. They have a chance to maybe, just maybe, approach being a little below average. More likely, the Royals will be among the lower third in offensive production this season, but be careful when you start with the ‘worst ever’ or ‘worst in Royals’ history’ talk, or we will be forced to remind you of this final beauty:

• September 20, 2009 at Chicago (a 2-1 win!): Willie Bloomquist RF, Mitch Maier LF, Billy Butler 1B, Mike Jacobs DH, Alberto Callaspo 3B, John Buck C, Luis Hernandez 2B, Yuniesky Betancourt SS, Josh Anderson CF

Sweet dreams, fans.

Today, I will continue down the meandering, rubble strewn road to the 2018 season and take a quick first look at the pitching staff. This group offers plenty of room for cynicism and outright despair. Still, it is not without hope, or at least maybe not without some hope, anyway.

The starting rotation contains some absolute locks and also is fertile ground for the discussion of inventory. The latter was a catchphrase of Dayton Moore’s when he first came to Kansas City and is not without some logic. If the Royals are destined to be losers in 2018, there are good reasons to keep as many arms in the system as possible.  That may mean sending a better pitcher with options remaining to the minors in favor of keeping another pitcher (perhaps of less ability) who is out of options on the major league roster. The issue comes front and center right here, as Jake Junis might well be the second or third best starter on the team, but has options left.  Put that one in the back of your mind as we continue.

The rotation will be headed by Danny Duffy, followed by Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel (those contracts sure taste good, don’t they?).  When it comes to Kennedy, you can sigh, dream, grouse and hope all you want, but he’s going out there every fifth day.  In the case of Hammel, it would be fun to see if the Royals would ever truly commit to the absolute rule that Jason is never, ever allowed to face a batter three times in one game. I am not sure I can recollect a pitcher who could go from lights out to gasoline fire quicker and with more certainty than Hammel did last year. There’s a topic that has been covered and will be covered again.  For now, Hammel will be out there every fifth day as well.

After that, all the talk points to Nate Karns getting the fourth spot.  Before going down with the newest fad in pitcher injuries last year, Karns showed some real promise.  There should be some concern about whether he will be truly ready to go when the team heads north and if he will be effective immediately. There is no need to rush here and the Royals should not be adverse to a little early season disabled list stashing if Karns is not ‘full go’ by the end of March. For now, let’s say he is and, given that, he is an almost certainty to break camp in the rotation.

That leaves the aforementioned Junis as the fifth member of the rotation. After last season, one would think Junis would be a near lock, but he has options left.  That is something Sam Gaviglio does not have, nor does Jess Hahn or Brian Flynn.  The Royals are not letting Hahn go and he will either start or come out of the bullpen.  We will deal with Flynn in a paragraph or two.  Gaviglio? A fair portion of the fanbase would not notice him being let go, but I have seen bad teams carry worse pitchers.   I am thinking and writing at the same time, so let’s very tentatively put Junis in the rotation while we play with the bullpen.

While roles are far from settled, we know Kelvin Herrera is in the pen and so is Brandon Maurer (out of options, but he’s there because he exists). If the lefty Flynn gets anyone out in Arizona, he is on the team.  I mean, for godssake, he is lefthanded AND out of options! Jesse Hahn, who I did not let make the rotation, is in the bullpen.  You know who the next ‘near lock’ probably is?  Burch Smith, acquired in a Rule 5 draft trade. In a tear-down season, there is no reason to not carry Smith.  That’s five.  It’s pure guesswork from here on out.

Kevin McCarthy is a bit of a known quantity and not without some ability.  He has a real chance to make the relief corps.  There is ‘starter to successful reliever’ talk swirling about Wily Peralta and he likely has a claim staked on a relief spot as well.

That is seven relievers and a twelve man staff. The Royals could very well opt to break camp with thirteen pitchers, which would open a spot for Gaviglio, but gives Yost just one southpaw in the bullpen.  The above scenario has no room for Trevor Oaks on the 25 man roster or Eric Skoglund (a lefty) or Eric Stout (a lefty) or Tim Hill (a lefty) or cult hero Richard Lovelady (a lefty) or Kyle Zimmer (added for gallows humor only).  I mean, there are a LOT of arms in camp.  Remember Miguel Almonte?  Yeah, I almost forgot about him, too. I have been doing this long enough to generally expect someone unexpected to get the last bullpen spot and this year, with all the additional rebuilding, saving inventory variables will certainly be no exception.

Perhaps saying earlier that there is some hope with this group was a bit optimistic, but I think this will be an intriguing unit to watch throughout the year and likely one that will feature a great deal more pitchers getting a shot in the majors than we have mentioned above. That may or may not be good, but it will be….well, intriguing.

All that is likely gone.

Hosmer is signed with the Padres.  Dyson is off to the Diamondbacks and the dialogue between Kansas City and Moustakas is, at best, chilly. Jason Vargas has a contract elsewhere.  Hell, even Peter Moylan has found a different bullpen to fight kangaroos in. I might miss you most of all, Moylan.

Kansas City, if they did not before, now most definitely looks the part of a rebuilding team. They are talking the talk as well, as Dayton Moore indicated it was unlikely he would pursue any of the other free agents remaining out there.  Whether you were eager for it or dreading it, the rebuild is here. Some of you were too young or just too used to not following baseball to remember a time when 80-82 was a good year instead of a disappointing one. If you fall into that category, all I can say is buckle up. This is what your team might well look like come March 29th.

At catcher, we have probably the most certain of all roster spots: Salvador Perez backed up by Drew Butera. If an injury comes this way, Cam Gallagher was competent in brief work last year as well. Unless Perez goes down for long stretches or his interesting theory on the strike zone gets worse, the Royals are not bad here.  They might even be, dare we say it, good.

As it stands right now, the infield has a giant opening at first and some possible (and I think unwise) reshuffling if the organization once again falls in love with Raul Mondesi this spring. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Royals have been wishing for Mondesi to turn into Francisco Lindor since before they knew Lindor was as good as he is, and it has probably done Mondesi few favors. You can go two ways on this. The first is that Kansas City is not going to contend, so what’s the harm in letting Mondesi struggle and learn in the majors? The second theory would be what’s the harm in seeing if Whit Merrifield is really as good as he was last year at a position he is used to playing in the majors while Mondesi gets confident in AAA? I like the latter, and I wonder if the resigning of Escobar means the organization is leaning that way as well, despite some of the rumblings to the contrary.

Let’s say that I, for once, am right and Merrifield is the second baseman, with Escobar (gulp) at shortstop and Cheslor Cuthbert at third base. While there is a generous allotment of potential first basemen in the system (Samir Duenez, Ryan O’Hearn and Frank Schwindel head the list), Hunter Dozier is the oldest. I would entertain the argument that flipping Dozier and Cuthbert would make sense, but the Royals seem to have some affection for Cuthbert staying at third this year. If there is a free agent signing, it probably is for someone to play (or stand in the general area of) first base.

Playing Alex Gordon in center has some public appeal, as does giving Bubba Starling a look. I am a fan of neither, despite the entertainment value of both in what is likely to be a long summer. To start the year, it seems more than likely that Gordon will be back in left, Paulo Orlando will be in center, Jorge Bonifacio in right with Jorge Soler as the designated hitter. Like me, I don’t think the Royals have a ton of belief that Orlando will ever get close to his BABIP fueled run of near competency in 2016, but I also do not believe they are ready to throw Starling to the wolves, so Paulo likely gets the nod by default. I will also be shocked – SHOCKED I TELL YA! – if one of Billy Burns or Tyler Collins does not make the team as a fifth outfielder. As a point of clarification, that is not because I see any value in either being on the roster, both are just the kind of player that teams in the tear down portion of a rebuild have in their lineup.

For fun, I will throw out a batting order that has no relevance to anything I have heard or read and, frankly, little thought. It is not all that relevant to the overall discussion, but is a nice way to summarize a general look at this squad:

Merrifield 2B
Bonifacio RF
Perez C
Soler DH
Gordon LF
Orlando CF
Cuthbert 3B
Dozier 1B
Escobar SS

Butera is obviously on the bench as the backup catcher, joined by Burns or Collins (please not both, please!) and I would venture a guess Ryan Goins as the utility infielder. You could make a case for Ramon Torres in this spot, but I could see the organization wanting to let him garner regular time in Omaha to start the year. If the team were to go with 12 pitchers instead of 13, something I think is unlikely, it would open a spot for Cody Asche, as a fallback (not a good one, mind you) in case Cuthbert and Dozier both are truly awful.

Okay gang, I am generally a ray of optimism when this time of year rolls around. Way back when, I was excited about Mark Teahan and Ruben Gotay. I not only owned (own) an Angel Berroa jersey, but a Shane Costa AND Ryan Shealy jersey as well. That said, the above position player roster is uninspiring at best.

One can look at seven of the starting nine (excluding Orlando and Escobar) and be hopeful for improvement or, in the case of Perez and Merrifield, sustainment. You can do that, be pretty optimistic and have an offense that is not awful, but still not very good and a defense that is just okay. THAT is the optimistic view.

Welcome to 2018.

As has been discussed here, there and everywhere, the wisdom of committing $20 million per year to Eric Hosmer for some sizable number of seasons is questionable.  There is the allure (especially for us old guys) of players being Royals for life or at least close to it. Heck, there is allure – when looking at the potential lineup for next season – to having a player with a .385 on-base percentage come back and play for Kansas City. Let’s face it, Eric Hosmer is good, but is is 6/$120 million good?  And even if he is THAT good, is that good for the Kansas City Royals?

Craig deftly pointed out the business side of life yesterday. If the budget for payroll really is $120 million, the post-arbitration situation will leave Dayton Moore hard pressed to stay under that number even if he fills out a number of roster spots with major league minimum players. Craig’s calculations obviously do not include an Eric Hosmer contract and therein lies the rub. The list of things that would have to happen for the current Royals’ roster with Eric Hosmer to be a playoff team is too long to note or be logical enough to even consider.

So, the baseball gods simply make the Royals sign Hosmer and let’s play a game and say he really wants to come back and cuts the boys a break:  say $18 million per year for five or six years.  Boom, payroll, assuming the Royals arbitrate with Kelvin Herrera, is now banging on $130 million.  I think maybe at last, we have established that David Glass is not cheap….as long as he thinks the team can win, but this group might not be a winner.  Maybe it sounds silly, maybe it does not, but if you are going to spend $130 million to win 82 games it almost seems to make more sense to spend $150 million to win 90.

Contrary to what some may think, I get wins above replacement and the dollar value thereof. As constructed with Hosmer back, the Royals probably still need a number of things to go right to be just a winning team, much less a contender.  Even if they go big and spend $150 million in 2018, there remains a list of ‘have to go right’ items to be taste 90 wins. That list is considerably shorter at that point, far shorter than the one associated with signing Hosmer and calling it a winter.

If Dayton Moore and the Royals really are in the hunt for Hosmer..iff he really is going to basically fall back into the organization’s lap, then doesn’t that really almost force Glass and Moore to dive back into the fray for even more?

With Hosmer back, then the Royals might as well go get Mike Moustakas as well (who has generated virtually no buzz this off-season). Sure, he comes with warts and risk, and maybe he spends more time at designated hitter than third over the life of his contract, but the options are currently Cuthbert, Moss and Dozier. Now you have Hosmer and Moustakas and the idea of ‘hoping’ someone in house can manage centerfield seems inappropriate. There remain suitors out there for Lorenzo Cain, so he may not be an option even in my fantasy world of a $150 million payroll, but Moore would have to think about upgrading there as well.

I hear you out there, with all that, this Royals team still has too many ifs and buts.

The starting rotation is not confidence inspiring, but the brave new world Moore has embarked on by signing Hosmer includes keeping Danny Duffy and Jason Hammel and, gulp, Ian Kennedy (as if there was someone out there who wanted to trade for him!). To be honest, there is not a great option to invigorate this group unless we get completely – and I may be there already! – nuts. Assuming some semblance of sanity remains and since the Royals are getting the band back together, the next best thing is to return to the super bullpen.

In doing so, it would have been nice to retain Mike Minor, but that ship has left the barn. Wade Davis is out there longing to be wanted by someone (so is Greg Holland, but don’t be greedy – it’s the holiday season). If the Royals change their mindset from rebuilding to reloading, maybe you bring back the World Series closer, shuffle Kelvin Herrera back into his comfort zone, ride the Soria roller coaster and return Scott Alexander and Peter Moylan to fill in the cracks and, in the latter case, fend off any rogue kangaroos.

Without question, we are well down the rabbit hole at this point and, for the record, I do not expect the 2018 Kansas City Royals to boast a payroll in the $150 million range. What this exercise in fantasy revealed, however, is that signing just Eric Hosmer simply does not make much sense. It would feel good and it would look good, but it doesn’t put the Royals (barring multiple lightning strikes) in playoff contention in 2018…or 2019. Are you prepared to bank on a 30-year old Eric Hosmer leading a yet to be determined group of developed draftees back to relevance in 2020-2021?  That is a lot of dollars and time between now and the end of the rainbow.

For this winter, if David Glass is going to allow Dayton Moore to spend some money, then he might as well let him spend a LOT of money. I am fully prepare to admit that in itself is a dicey prospect and I am certainly ready to agree that none of the above should really take place. I am, however, adamant that if you start down this road by bringing Eric Hosmer back, you cannot then put the car in neutral.

All in or all out. There is no in between.

Frankly, I wrote something not far from this last week when we explored what keeping Wade Davis might have meant to the 2017 Royals. You might remember that I speculated there were three games that one could really, really put your finger on as losses that turn into wins with Davis closing versus Kelvin Herrera.  Since I wrote that column, there has been another game we can add to the total.

Sadly, no matter how eloquently it was portrayed, Wade Davis is not a member of the 2017 team.  Instead we have Jorge Soler.  As much as we might want to, there is nothing that we can do to make Whit Merrifield the opening day second baseman. We cannot even ripple time and space enough to keep Danny Duffy from getting hurt or Ian Kennedy from turning into a pumpkin.

That said, for all their faults, the Royals still linger three and one-half games back of a Wild Card spot that no one really seems to want to win.  Wheels are falling off, oil is leaking and yet Kansas City could be comfortably in the post-season if they had just managed to win one more game each month.  Seems simple, doesn’t it?  Just one stinking game per month.

It was a beautiful night on April 18^th when the Royals lost to San Francisco 2-1 in 11 innings.  Jason Hammel gave up one run over six innings.  The firm of Moylan, Wood, Soria and Herrera combined to toss three scoreless innings.  Scott Alexander pitched a scoreless tenth and got the first two outs in the 11^th before surrendering a double and a single to give the Giants the lead and twenty minutes later the win.

Remember this game?  Did you remember the Royals had 15 baserunners and scored ONE run? You want to talk about missed opportunities?  This is the game for you.

Tied at one in the bottom of the eighth, the Royals got a lead-off walk from Whit Merrifield, who had just been called up and was starting in right field. After a Mondesi sacrifice bunt, Alex Gordon was hit by a pitch.  Moustakas lined out, but Lorenzo Cain pulled a ball into the hole for an infield single. The bases were loaded, but Eric Hosmer ended the inning on a groundout.

Move to the bottom of the ninth.  Brandon Moss singled with one out.  Whit Merrifield walked with two out.  Two on, two out, Raul Mondesi strikes out.  An inning later, Moustakas and Cain hit back to back singles with one out only to have Hosmer ground into a replay aided inning ending double play.  (Craig Brown despises replay, by the way).

Down a run going to the bottom of the 11^th, a Perez lead-off single was followed by two strikeouts. Merrifield kept hope alive with a single.  Two on, two out, Mondesi up. Do I even need to tell you what happened?

Just one game in a dismal April, right?  It would be a nice one to have back.

If you are looking for one game in May, I am going to give you two choices and you can pick.

Let’s start with a 1-0 loss to Cleveland on a Sunday, May 7^th.  Mike Clevinger (who has had a nice season) was making his first start of the year and the Royals had Danny Duffy on the hill.  Despite throwing 50 strikes and 41 balls, the Royals managed ONE hit against Clevinger.  They failed to take advantage of the four walks he allowed (two of which lead off an inning) before Cleveland’s bullpen finished out the final three and one-half innings.  It should be noted, however, that the day was not done before Cody Allen hit Cain to lead off the inning, walked Soler with two outs and ended the game on a long fly ball by Brandon Moss.

If that May home loss seemed doesn’t sit right with you, how about another loss in Kansas City to Detroit on May 31^st?  Here, the Royals scored three in the first, but thanks to a rocky Ian Kennedy outing found themselves down 6-3 entering the bottom of the fourth.  Cheslor Cuthbert and Alcides Escobar combined to plate a run before the inning was ended when Escobar was caught stealing.

However, having chased the Tigers’ starter, Matt Boyd, in the fourth, Kansas City proceeded to hit EIGHT straight ground ball outs against Warwick Saupold. Eight. Warwick Saupold. Feels like a missed opportunity.

Kansas City enjoyed a fine June, but there is a game that would be nice to have back.  The opponent is again Detroit, this time in Comerica Park on June 27^th. Once again, the Royals plate three runs in the first inning by opening the game against Justin Verlander with FIVE straight hits.  Further damage was avoided as Verlander used just nine pitches to get three outs with two runners on base.

Matt Strahm was the starter that day for Kansas City and he was not good, but the Royals still held a 3-1 lead when they started the third inning with a single and walk only to see Verlander escape the inning via strikeout and two line outs.  The Tigers took a 4-3 lead in the bottom of that frame and added another run in the fourth.

Verlander would work into the eighth, leaving after Hosmer led off the inning with a single.  Bruce Rondon would strike out Perez, but give up a single to Moustakas.  Two on, one out, Moss and Escobar up.  Yeah, no runs.

July?  The Royals lost on walk-offs three different times and lost another Danny Duffy start 1-0. I will offer the 9-8 loss in ten innings against Boston on July 29^th as ‘our game of the month’, but you can pick from and lament any of those four.

The Boston game was a Trevor Cahill start that featured, not surprisingly, six different Royals relievers.  Four of those six allowed a single run in a slow bleed of a loss that also saw Kansas City get their lead-off batter on in both the ninth and tenth innings, but not score.

On August 24^th, in the game immediately before the Royals were shutout four consecutive times, they took a 2-0 lead over Colorado after two innings, only to see the game slip away via a Pat Valaika two-run two-out homer in the eighth.  The Royals could not take advantage of two walks issued to them in the fourth, a one-out single in the sixth or a lead-off single in the eighth. That eighth inning was particularly fun, given that Hosmer, Bonifacio and Moss all struck out swinging against Mike Dunn after Melky Cabrera’s lead-off single.

The obvious game in September is the ten inning loss to Cleveland on the 14^th, but I am trying to avoid games that go into the ‘if we had Wade Davis’ column.  Instead, how about another 3-2 loss to Cleveland last Sunday?

Here, the Royals plated two in the eighth to creep within a single run and put two on with one out in the ninth only to have Butera and Merrifield strike out swinging to end the game. Prior to that, the Royals had two on with one out in the seventh and did not score and Terrance Gore on second in the eighth only to see Mike Moustakas strike out.

One game a month, boys and girls.  Six games that could have turned the other way without using much imagination at all.  Six games that have very little to do with who the closer was.

You want Wade Davis and the four games he might have meant to this team?  I will live with Kelvin Herrera and ask for the six games detailed above.

The Kansas City Royals are not a great team this season.  They probably are not even a ‘good’ team. That said, for the want of one more win per month, they still could have us excited about October.

Full disclosure, I speculated during the off-season that Davis might be approaching the end of the line.  He had, after all, missed time due to injury twice during 2016 and upon returning in September had allowed 11 hits in 9.2 innings of work along with 3 runs.  Not bad numbers, but maybe not WADE DAVIS numbers. Relievers, closers especially, have a tendency to fall off the cliff. Trade a somewhat expensive reliever with some question marks (however ‘gut’ related and possibly unfounded they might be!) for a young, controllable everyday player with lots of potential?  Yes, I was onboard.

It might yet yield positive results, but this trade certainly did not work out in 2017.  Soler has been a non-factor in the major leagues for Kansas City. In-house option, Jorge Bonifacio has surpassed what Soler has provided by a huge margin. Meanwhile, Wade Davis is 29 for 29 in save opportunities for the Cubs in 2017.  Oh, my friends, what if?

To be fair, Davis has been very good this year, but not perfect. He has allowed four home runs, which is one more than the three previous seasons combined.  Davis has allowed a run to score in 9 of his 51 appearances and in four of those nine has allowed two runs. Fun fact, the Chicago Cubs have won eight of the nine games in which Davis allowed a run. The only blemish was a loss to Arizona on August 3rd in which Davis allowed two home runs.  The last time Wade Davis allowed two home runs in a game was back in May of 2013 when he was still a starter.

By contrast, Kelvin Herrera has allowed a run or more in 17 of his 56 appearances.  Nine times he has allowed two runs or more and in four of those nine he allowed three runs or more.  Davis, by the way, has not been charged with three runs in a relief appearance since September 28, 2012. In those 17 runs-allowed appearances by Herrera, the Royals won eight times, which leaves us nine games (by very crude logic) hanging in the balance.

Does Davis give up a home run to Jake Marisnick on April 9th (Herrera’s first blown save)? You can say he does not, but Davis has allowed four homers this season. This was one bad pitch and an otherwise good inning in a game the Royals would eventually lose in twelve innings. We can dig in deeper here and envision a different reliever usage for this game, too, with both Herrera and Davis in the bullpen, but you can also stretch alternative reality scenarios so far that they have no relation to the reality we currently reside in if you are not careful. (Yes, I watch Star Trek, shut up.)

On April 30th, Herrera gave up a run in the top of the ninth with to Minnesota with the Royals already down by two.  Kansas City would score a run in the bottom of the ninth, but still lose by two. Nothing to see here, move along.

May 6th against Cleveland is a game that might well stand out. Leading 1-0, Joakim Soria gave up a run in the top of the eighth to tie the game.  Herrera entered in the ninth, still tied, and gave up back to back home runs. With Davis on the roster, does Herrera pitch the 8th more effectively than Soria?  Again, here we are changing history in the 8th inning, the 9th inning and possibly beyond.

Herrera’s next blown save came on May 19th against Minnesota where he allowed a two run home run with Kansas City leading 3-1.  The Royals would lose this game in the tenth inning, a frame in which they pitched Al Alburquerque and Travis Wood.   Prior to Herrera, Kansas City threw Matt Strahm, Mike Minor and Soria for an inning apiece.  You do the math here, but Davis in the pen likely means that either Strahm or Minor is available to pitch the 10th, ASSUMING Wade blows a two run ninth inning lead – something he has not done all year for the Cubs.  This one stands out a bit more to me as ‘Wade Davis might have mattered game’.

The next runs allowed in a loss occurrence on Herrera’s ledger came on June 5th when he entered a game against Houston with the Royals down 4-3 and allowed three runs (two earned) in the top of the ninth to seal the team’s fate. Too many ifs and buts to say Davis makes a difference, but worth noting nonetheless. Later in that same series, Herrera entered a tie game on June 8th (1-1) in the top of the ninth, faces five, retires one and the Royals lose 6-1.

On July 1st, Kelvin entered a game once more in the top of the ninth with his team down 7-5 and surrenders three runs (two earned) to Minnesota. Later in the month, on the 19th, Herrera would blow a save against Detroit, but Kansas City would win the game despite the allowance of a two-run home run to Mikie Mahtook.

The last two games are fresher for all of us.  Last Thursday, Herrera would blow a 2-1 lead over Minnesota by allowing three runs in the top of the ninth. To be fair, Herrera did not get a ton of defensive help on the Jason Castro ‘single’ to short left, but he also walked the intimidating Robbie Grossman after that, so he hardly gets a pass on this game, either.  Herrera’s part of this ninith inning featured two singles, two walks (one intentional) and a sacrifice fly. I do not feel like that happens against Wade Davis.

Just to cover all the bases and rub some more salt in the wound, Herrera’s last runs allowed in a Royals’ loss, came the next night when he entered in the eighth, down by a run and allowed two additional runs before being excused from further work.

In reviewing the above, I look at the games on April 9th, May 19th and September 7th as the three that one could make a very reasonable argument that Kansas City wins if Wade Davis is on the roster. Given that the first two of those three came down mostly to one bad pitch that left the yard, a logical view says Davis blows a save in at least one of those.  We could also fancy a reality in which one of the two tie games (May 6th and June 8th) goes the Royals’ way with Davis in place of or in addition to Herrera.

Take those five games and change a Royals’ loss to a win in three of them?  One could very certainly make that case.  In doing so, however, we have to honestly ask if Herrera would have performed any better back in his set up role versus being the closer.  In doing so, it would be wise to remember that Joakim Soria allowed runs in just two of his first 22 appearances in 2017.  Conversely, as rocky as Herrera has been, would he have given up four runs to Minnesota on April 28th and four to Detroit on May 29th as Soria did in the eighth inning of games his team entered with the lead?

We could also factor in the idea that despite the trials and tribulations of both Herrera and Soria, they certainly offered a level of effectiveness somewhere beyond that exhibited by Travis Wood, Neftali Feliz, Al Alburquerque and so forth and so on.  There are fifty some innings worth of Wade Davis that are taken not from Soria and Herrera but from the bottom portion of the Royals’ bullpen. No, I don’t have the spreadsheets to prove this, but common sense tells you it almost has to have some sort of knock-on effect to the positive.

In the end, taking all the theories of the preceding three paragraphs and remembering that, contrary to what we remember, Wade Davis is also a human being and not an android, it would still seem that you could piece together a three game swing to the positive for the Kansas City Royals. I might even allow discussion of Davis changing the stars on four games, but that might be stretching it.

Still, three more wins.  How would you feel about the Royals’ playoff chances if they had three more wins?

If you are prepared to concede, at least for a moment, that Houston, Boston and Cleveland will be division winners and the New York Yankees have a lock on the first wild card, you are then left with a conglomeration of five (seven?!) teams from which only one has a positive run differential. Only the Rangers, the third highest scoring team in the league, have outscored their opponents for the season and that team, by the way, traded away Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy and still can’t get excused from the playoff race. With the exception of three games each versus the Yankees and Braves, the Rangers will spend the rest of the year in their division which is both good for the Royals (six games vs Houston) and bad (10 games vs Oakland).

The Angels, currently just one-half game out of the playoffs, are among the lowest scoring teams in the league. Their closer is Bud Norris. Their leader in innings is J.C. Ramirez, who never started a major league game before this season. Ricky Nolasco and Jesse Chavez start every fifth day for them! And yes, that IS the Jesse Chavez you are thinking of. Admittedly, this team is seven games over in games in which Mike Trout starts and have scored five or more runs in 13 of their last 19 games. They managed not to bury themselves early (as the Royals did) and stood pat at the trading deadline. Los Angeles has nine games with Houston and eight with Texas remaining, plus three with Cleveland just to spice things up.

The current holder of the second wild card is the Minnesota Twins, the team whose collapse has been anticipated by everyone since mid-April. Only four other teams in the AL have allowed more runs than Minnesota and those four sport a combined record of 218-282. They traded their closer at the deadline, acquired and then traded Jaime Garcia within the span of one week, currently start Bartolo Colon every fifth day and recently split a doubleheader in which they started Tim Melville and Dillon Gee. To be fair (Colon aside), this is a young team and not without talent. Perhaps we have been jaded a bit by the fact that a lot of these same faces were on some bad Twins teams of the past?

For what it’s worth, the Twins are 15-7 since theoretically throwing in the towel at the deadline, and have had seven different pitchers notch saves in the month of August and have the easiest schedule of all the wild card contenders from here on out. Oh, and just for fun, they have scored in double figures in five games over the last two weeks. They play the White Sox and Blue Jays to finish out the month and then face the Royals seven times in 10 days starting September 1st.

Seattle lurks just a half game back of Kansas City with a 64-63 record. They are 11 under against teams with winning records and 12 over against losing teams. I don’t know what you do with that when considering a wild card race where everyone is pretty much a .500 team. Felix Hernandez and James Paxton are both on the disabled list and 16 different pitchers have started a game for them…so far. They traded for David Phelps, who promptly got hurt, and lost another reliever (Tony Zych) to the disabled list last night. By record, the Mariners face the toughest schedule the rest of way, with home and homes with the Rangers, Angels and Astros, plus three games with the Indians.

Then, of course, we come to your Kansas City Royals, their negative run differential and problematic bullpen. Quite frankly, I am not sure the Royals might not have the best starting pitching of this admittedly run of the mill group of contenders. Their trade for Trevor Cahill and two relievers has resulted in Cahill going on the disabled list and the relievers pitching at a level that might make you wish they would join him. On the night when Kansas City welcomed back Salvador Perez, they watched Kelvin Herrera walk off the mound in pain. All that, just a couple days after putting Joakim Soria on the disabled list.

As we are all painfully aware, the Royals dropped nine of 11 after being six games over .500 at the trading deadline. In this race, it took that level of bad to relinquish the second wild card spot and it still was not enough to erase Kansas City from contention. Really, I am not sure you can give the second wild card spot away this year!

Kansas City has seven games AT Cleveland on their remaining slate, along with seven (home and home) with Minnesota. Arizona comes to town for three in addition to two more with the Rockies in what is a rather unfortunate inter-league schedule. Help comes with seven games against Chicago and six against Detroit. Although, with these teams, does schedule matter?

In this race, you have the Angels and Mariners with starting rotations that are barely recognizable. You have the Rangers who seemingly should be better, but aren’t and have not been all season. The Royals do not have a bullpen at this point, while the Twins are using Matt Belisle as their closer, who prior to this month had five career saves in over 600 games. They also are without Miguel Sano and a cast of others.

When completely healthy, I am not sure any of these teams are good.  None of them are healthy right now. Don’t see how Kansas City can possibly make the playoffs? I understand your feelings. Funny thing is, I don’t see how any of these other teams make it, either.  Craziest thing of all? ONE of them has to.

Embrace it, friends.  Embrace the mediocrity.

He has taken a free pass just 20 times in 436 plate appearances so far this season: just a 4.6 percentwalk rate. Among qualified batters, only 14 players in the majors have walked at a lesser rate than Whit. Two of those 14 are Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar, who leads the league in walking the least. It is a bit interesting that a whole bunch of middle infielders are in the bottom 15, including the likes of Rougned Odor, Didi Gregorius, Dee Gordon, Brandon Phillps and Jose Iglesias. Mike Moustakas, by the way, is 18th in least walks with a 4.8 percent rate. Of the 18 players who have walk rates under 5.0 percent, Merrifield’s .331 on-base percentage ranks third.

Information like that is enough to give one reason for pause. Certainly you have seen it about social media. Any rejoicing over something Merrifield has done is almost inevitably followed by either “yeah, but he’s 28″ or “sure, but he doesn’t walk.”  Merrifield’s WARP is 2.9, his fWAR is 2.8 and his bWAR is 3.7. Don’t cotton to those fancy metrics in your America? Well, Whit has slashed .295/.331/.483. Even more traditional? How about 14 home runs and 20 steals from your second baseman?

But he doesn’t walk.

While Merrifield did post walk rates of 6.2 percent or above in eight of his ten minor league stops, he only reached double digits in this category once (four seasons ago in AA). There is likely some logic in thinking that Merrifield might walk more with more major league time, but it might not happen (his walk rate is lower than in his rookie 2016 campaign) and Whit will certainly never be a player who walks a lot or, probably, even on a league average rate.

That said, do we just toss 2017 up to good fortune, juiced balls and the grace of the baseball gods and resign ourselves to the fact that next season Whit Merrifield will not be worth three wins above replacement and maybe not be any better than replacement level himself? One could point to an old friend of Royals fans, Angel Berroa, who hit .287/.338/.451 in 2003 at a suspected age of 25 and was right on the edge of awful from 2004 forward. However, one could also point to the fact that Whit’s numbers are up across the board in 2017 despite a fairly average .311 BABIP, which is fifty points lower than his 2016 mark.

But he doesn’t walk and that is a legitimate concern.

Hitting .295 as of last night, Merrifield still has just a .331 on-base percentage. That is 98th among all qualified batters in baseball. It’s not bad, particularly coming from a middle infielder with some speed and, at least this season, some pop. I think you can all do the math, however, and realize that if Whit is a .270 hitter next year (he carried a career .274 batting average in the minors), his on-base percentage is not going to enthuse anyone. Just a bit of bad hitting luck and Whit could go from leading off to Omaha (or worse) in a hurry.

I turned toward history to take a gander at players who appeared in at least 120 games in a season, posted a .330 or better on-base percentage and walked 30 times or less – numbers that Merrifield is likely to be at or around by season’s end. The search returned 539 instances of that happening and a ton of fun names. It has happened 190 times since 1990, which is – by very rough calculations – equates to about four percent of all batters who appeared in at least 120 games. Bottom line, it happens regularly, but not a lot.

Fun names? How about Nap Lajoie, who walked just 24 times in 1901 on his way to a .426/.463/.643 line. There is nothing relevant to Merrifield, but I thought it was important to note that a season like that was out there. Joe DiMaggio matched our criteria at age 21 while Roberto Clemente did so at age 36. You can lose yourself in this list (as you can with most) as notable players from all eras have, at one time or another, walked little and gotten on base at a plus .330 clip. Tony Oliva is there, so too is Kirby Puckett, Elston Howard, Hal McRae, Jim Rice and on and on.

I am sure many of you already knew, but George ‘High Pockets’ Kelly made the list in 1922. Kelly, who is in the Hall of Fame, would later be traded for Pea Ridge Day. Relevance? None, but any time you can type High Pockets and Pea Ridge, you have to do it. 1922 also saw Bing Miller and Hack Miller reach the same search criteria. The latter was known to swing a FORTY-SEVEN ounce bat while the former would play until the age of 42. Hack made our list the following season as well, while Bing would be on the list five times.

Ichiro Suzuki matched our criteria twice, albeit 15 years apart. Clemente did the same thing, making the list at age 21 and 36.  Felipe and Matty Alou combined to make the list five times. Six is the most times a player made this particular (peculiar?) list. Stuffy McInnis did it, so did George Burns. ‘Stuffy’ by the way, was sort of the early 20th century equivalent of ‘toolsy.’

Old friend Willie Wilson is on the list three times. Ken Harvey is there in his ‘All-Star’ season, while Mark Grudzielanek made the list four times with four different teams. Jim Eisenreich made it three times with three teams. Alcides Escobar is on the list, which surprised me in that he managed to get on-base at a plus .330 clip for an entire season. Billy Burns made the list for the A’s in 2015 while Lorenzo Cain did it for the Royals in 2014.

As we emerge from the rabbit hole, we return back to a search for relevance. The Royals, who will be a vastly different looking team in 2018, will be looking for Merrifield to repeat or even build upon this 2017 campaign. Can we find some recent players who have shown the ability to get on-base at a decent clip (as .330 is not exactly an eye-popping OBP) despite their lack of interest int he base on balls?

Starling Marte pops up right away. In three of the last four seasons, he has walked less than 30 times, but posted on-base percentages of .337 or greater. Marte walked just 33 times in the one season of the four he did not make our list. Brian Harper did it for the Twins in four out of five seasons from 1989 to 1993 and posted a .328 OBP the one season he missed the list. Placido Polanco made our list twice and he is an interesting and ‘hopeful’ comparison.

Four times, Polanco posted on-base percentages north of .330 while posting walk rates of less than 5 percent. In five additional seasons, Polanco surpassed the .330 mark with walk rates between 5 percent and 6 percent. While Placido Polanco comparisons may not get you all tingly, he was a middle infielder whose career slash line is .297/.343/.397 over a fifteen season major league run. All that was accomplished with a very modest 5.4 percent walk rate.

One other quasi-viable data point. As mentioned above, Lorenzo Cain made the list in his age 28 season of 2014, walking just 24 times in 133 games (.339 OBP). Cain has since seen his walk rate move from 4.8 percent to 6.1 percent to 7.1 percent to his current 2017 mark of 8.5 percent. Certainly Whit Merrifield is not the defender that Cain is, but if he could manage to do something similar with his walks over the next few seasons, it would do a great deal to keep him a viable member of the everyday lineup. For what it is worth, Lorenzo posted a 7.3 percent walk rate in his final season in AAA while Merrifield’s was 7.2 percent the last time he spent any real time in Omaha.

To be quite honest, in less time than I spent on this, you can find a long list of ‘low-walk’ guys who managed to cobble together one or even two productive seasons before their luck ran out. That fact is undeniable, but it also not an inevitable result either. If Merrifield’s BABIP was sailing along at Paulo Orlando-esque .380, then I would be first on board the ‘Merrifield cannot repeat this’ train, but it is not. His production has increased while his BABIP has decreased, and that provides some hope that Whit may be more Lorenzo Cain than Angel Berroa or, if not Cain, at least Placido Polanco.