But really, don’t overlook Escobar’s second half offensive performance.

That’s not just a ho-hum improvement or progression to the mean. That was a monumental shifting of offense. Adding 100 points to his batting average and OBP? An over 200 point increase in OPS? Hell, he even bumped his walk rate from 4.8 percent in the first half to 6.8 percent in the second. This was an astonishing improvement.

The key stat to focus on above would be his sOPS+. That is his OPS+ relative to that particular split. We know that 100 is average and anything above is better than league average. (For example, a 110 OPS+ is 10 percent better than the league average.) For the first half, Escobar was 55 percent worse than a league average hitter. God awful. Then, in the second, he rebounded to a 103 sOPS+. For perspective, that was the first time he had a half of baseball better than a 100 sOPS+ since all the way back before the All-Star break in 2012. 2012! (He did post a dead even 100 sOPS+ in the first half of 2014.)

That was actually a continuation of a trend that started in the 2016 season. In the previous two seasons, Escobar would put up a stinker of a first half, buried in a pile of abysmal rates and raw numbers, then would rebound with a decent (comparatively speaking) performance post All-Star Break.

Here’s 2016:

And 2017:

Each season, it’s something different. This year, it was a dismal first half BABIP that was countered by a second half rate that, had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify, would have tied him with his teammate Adalberto Mondesi for 32nd best in the majors. In 2016, it was an unexpected burst of power. Last year, his counting stats are consistent from one half to the next, but he put up those second half numbers in 80 fewer plate appearances. 

However, Escobar’s biggest second half accomplishment didn’t come on the field. From The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd:

Escobar said he understands the situation. He has spent part of the 2018 season offering guidance and wisdom to Mondesi. He did not grouse when he lost his job. (“He always helped me,” Mondesi said.) 

Royals watchers should not underestimate the impact Escobar has had in Mondesi’s development over the last two months of the season. Still just 22, Mondesi has always been the understudy to Escobar as the Royals chose to ride a consecutive game streak and declining performance. Mondesi was deployed at second and always seemed two or three hitless games away from spending time on the bench. The end of Escobar’s streak paved the way for Mondesi to stake his claim. That Escobar didn’t begrudge youth made the transition easier. As Escobar gracefully edged toward the shadows, it wasn’t a coincidence that Mondesi experienced a breakout.

Last winter, Escobar signed a one year deal for $2.5 million with a number of plate appearance bonuses built in to the contract. According to Cot’s Contracts, he cashed 17 of those for a tidy sum of $1.275 million. As I took to twitter to note each time Escobar hit a plate appearance milestone, several replied that it was a reward for good service during a pair of pennant winning seasons. I never saw it that way. That was supposed to be when the Royals exercised his $6.5 million option in 2017. That was a gift.

Despite a flurry of offense in the second half, Escobar will finish with a TAv either second or third from the bottom for the fourth consecutive year. Combined with a declining defensive ability, his -1.1 WARP was the worst mark of his career. Instead of (a lack of) contributions on the field, Escobar’s 2018 salary and bonus structure came to represent money spent for services rendered beyond the diamond. His role was to hold the position until the Royals were comfortable that Mondesi was ready for the every day rigors of the major leagues. Once that happened, it was up to Escobar to make the transition as painless as possible. By all accounts, that’s exactly what happened. Mondesi enters this winter with confidence and security. Mission accomplished. Even with Escobar’s negative WARP.

Now it’s time for the Royals and Escobar to part ways. Maybe his second half production will elevate status and get him that contract that didn’t come last winter. That’s highly unlikely given what we know about the current status of the free agent market and how ugly his numbers have declined the last several seasons, but by surrendering his position at short and moving around the field, he was able to prove a versatility that a team may find attractive in a limited role. His mentorship of Mondesi should play into that equation as well. Stranger things have happened. It’s OK to hope for a happy end to a major league career.

As another mainstay of the Royals pennant winning teams heads for the exit, it’s worth remembering his contributions. The web gems going deep in the hole to his right at short. Receiving a throw from Alex Gordon in left to provide the relay to Salvador Perez at home for the out. The Esky Magic at the top of the order in back-to-back Octobers. (He hit .311/.326/.467 in 31 postseason games.) The 2015 ALCS MVP award and the leadoff ambush inside the park home run against Matt Harvey in the World Series.

And now, as we watch Mondesi flourish, we’ll also remember Escobar’s contributions behind the scenes.

It’s fine! In fact, it’s better than fine because it gave a national audience a chance to see the very best parts of the Kansas City… rebuild? Build? Mid-year retooling that offered a jaded fanbase some (possibly misguided) hope? Probably that last one. But regardless, the Royals showcased their finest wares in a 10-3 win against the Twins, Saturday.

The Royals got going in the first, taking a 1-0 lead thanks to Whit Merrifield’s leadoff double, Adalberto Mondesi’s groundout—which moved Merrifield to third—and another Alex Gordon groundout to score Merrifield. Gordon was not finished by a long shot.

After the Twins tied the game with an RBI single from Ehire Adrianza in the second, the Royals answered with another run, this one from the bat of Alcides Escobar to drive in Jorge Bonifacio, who singled with one out and moved to second on Rosell Herrera’s groundout.

Following a quiet third inning, the Royals broke through for four runs in the fourth. It started rather beautifully—Herrera singled and scored on an Escobar triple (we’re not done with him yet either). But then there was some consternation when Cam Gallagher’s bunt attempt failed but Astudillo made a pick-off attempt on Escobar that sailed into left and brought the veteran home. Paul Molitor seemed to think Gallagher had interfered with Astudillo’s  throw, and he felt so strongly about it that he got tossed out of the game for his troubles.

No longer a candidate to bunt, Gallagher roped a double to left, moved to third on a BERTO single and then both scored when Gordon doubled, at which point the game was broken wide open.

Logan Forsythe singled in Gregorio Petit in the top of the fifth. Whoop-de-doo.

Gordon drove in Gallagher (single) and Merrifield (walk) in the bottom of the sixth with a double. An inning later, Escobar scored Herrera with a double, and then came around on Gallagher’s single—I’ll make a big deal out of Gordon and Escobar turning back the clock, but don’t sleep on Gallagher going 4-for-4 as he bids to become future Drew Butera.

Meanwhile, in just his third start since late June, Ian Kennedy didn’t have to work terribly hard—big leads are pretty easy for anyone to make stand up, even someone who entered on a 17-start streak without a win. Six innings, six hits, one earned and four strikeouts later and Kennedy had his first win since April 7.

In the eighth, the Twins pushed a run across against Glenn Sparkman, who relieved Tim Hill after Jake Cave’s leadoff single. Astudillo greeted Sparkman with a single to move Cave to third, and then Max Kepler scored him with a sac fly. Hilariously, the inning ended with an Adrianza pop up to third, only Astudillo had broken for second… or forgot there was only one out? Either way, he was doubled off first to end the frame and, for all intents and purposes, the evening.

Your Unusually Happy Tweet of the Game

Beautiful baseball being played by the Royals right now

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/15/recap-kennedy-gordon-esky-royals-turn-back-the-clock-to-defeat-minnesota/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/10/recap-junis-keeps-shoving-to-take-down-chicago/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/10/recap-junis-keeps-shoving-to-take-down-chicago/#comments Tue, 11 Sep 2018 03:50:49 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39066 Take away June and July and let him exclusively face the American League Central and Jakob Junis might be the best pitcher in baseball.

Now, remove any of those elements from the equation and things get a little more squirrely. Fortunately, that didn’t matter this is September and those were the White Sox and Junis was more than able to fend off the White Sox and put the Royals back in the win column at Kauffman Stadium.

And when things got tight late, Ned Yost turned to the one man he knew would come through: Alcides Escobar, who will probably have a three-year extension in front of him before you read this sentence. We’ll cross that bridge some other time.

The Good Guys bought Junis an early lead with a couple of runs early. Very early, in fact—Whit Merrifield deposited the first pitch he saw over the wall in left-center, his season’s 12^th and his seventh career leadoff blast. If the Royals weren’t historically bad, he’d get some downballot MVP consideration this year; as is, he’ll have to content himself with being the lone Royals position player in the top-50 among American League players in fWAR.

(Yeah, you can check on that. Salvador Perez is just outside the top-50. And the offense is the better side of the ball right now. No wonder they’re gonna lose at least 105 games.)

Perez led things off with a single in the second inning and moved up 90 feet on a Lucas Giolito wild pitch. Brian Goodwin singled Salvy to third, and then Escobar scored him with a sac fly. Quite a night for Alcides Escobar, the Patron Saint of Hitting At Or About .220.

Things threatened to come unglued in the White Sox third. Adam Engel led off with a home run, and then Jose Abreu started a two-out rally with a single. Daniel Palka (whose last name Ryan Lefebvre pronounces like, “caca,” which works for the 2018 White Sox on a great many levels) ended said rally with a two-run homer to put the Pale Hose ahead by a run.

A two-out Hunter Dozier triple represented the Royals chance in the third, and after that neither side really enjoyed another quality run-scoring opportunity again until the Royals sixth. That’s when Ryan O’Hearn sejt a Giolito two-seamer screaming into the Kansas City night for his season’s 10^th home run—speaking of fWAR, he’s ranked eighth among Royals, behind two dudes (Mike Moustakas and Jon Jay) who no longer play for Kansas City and another (Jorge Soler) who hasn’t since mid-June.

So… tie game! Junis continued to be electric, sitting down his final 11 on the night. That got the game through eight with a lead, and Wily Peralta held serve in the ninth. The Royals Royal’d for a few innings on offense, so everyone was treated to some free baseball!

Jake Newberry is nobody’s idea of a reliable stopper at this point in his career, but you don’t have to be modern-day Goose Gossage to handle Wellington Castillo, Tim Anderson and Engel (one hopes). But that gave the Royals a chance to put the game away in the ninth, and boy did they! Goodwin led off with a double and Escobar sacrificed him over… only Jeanmar Gomez had other ideas and attempted to get Goodwin at third, only his throw was high and Goodwin scampered home with the game-winning run.

Your Unusually Happy Tweet of the Game

Jakob Junis appears to be done, which will bring his streak of consecutive innings without a walk to 30. He also becomes 1 of 6 #Royals pitchers all-time to toss 4-straight starts without issuing a free pass.

— Dave Holtzman (@DHoltzy) September 11, 2018

The Bright Spot: That tweet largely summed it up; Junis has flashed the same talent and potential in July and August that he did in April and May, and I just hope someday we’re done talking about Jakob Junis in terms of potential. Goodwin collected two hits. So did Alex Gordon, batting third (????) because you can’t just say ‘pass’ in baseball.

The Nadir: Adalberto Mondesi struck out twice in his 0-for-3 performance from the two-spot, if we’re picking nits.

The Next Step: Brad Keller, who is good, takes on either Dylan Covey, who might be but hasn’t really shown it at any point in 2018. Keller displayed a bend-not-break quality in last week’s 11-hit, one-run performance against Cleveland; one hopes things will be simpler against the likes of Nicky Delmonico.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/10/recap-junis-keeps-shoving-to-take-down-chicago/feed/ 1 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/15/forget-the-past-focus-on-the-future/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/15/forget-the-past-focus-on-the-future/#comments Wed, 15 Aug 2018 12:00:23 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36717 Watching the Royals game on Tuesday night, it was as if the 2015 championship version melded with the dreadful 2018 club. A bizarre night, indeed. 

The Royals channeled the 2015 vintage as they kept the line moving with six doubles and four steals. The 2018 Royals manifested in a pair of double plays and, as they threatened to break the game open early, saw their number three batter called out on strikes with the bases loaded.

The result was irrelevant. At least as irrelevant as can be for a team chasing the number one overall draft pick next June. What mattered was, for at least one night at The K, baseball was entertaining once again. 

The star on Tuesday was Adalberto Mondesi. He collected two of those six doubles and was responsible for three of the four steals. He also electrified on defense. Mondesi, as we are well aware, has bounced between the upper levels of the minors and the big league club. Once the team’s top prospect, Mondesi has struggled in his cups of coffee and was pinched for testing positive for Clenbuterol. The prospect luster has long faded (partially due to him accruing enough service time back in 2016 that he can no longer be technically considered a prospect), but Mondesi remains a key player as the Royals start their journey on The Process 2.0.

Mondesi wasn’t recalled until mid-June, but has played fairly regularly. After Tuesday’s game, he’s hitting .279/.295/.450. He still has a ways to go to fulfill the promise of his prospect years, but has been worth 0.5 fWAR in his time with the team.

Mondesi represents the future.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar collected his 425th plate appearance in the sixth inning. That PA triggered a $75,000 bonus, the 13th such award he has received this year. That’s added $975,000 to his $2.5 million base salary on a contract he signed last January. He has six more bonuses he can obtain and if he picks up 150 plate appearances between now and the end of the season, he will cash all of them. (Escobar will need to play every game and average 3.4 plate appearances per to collect. He’s not going to get all of his potential bonuses.)

Escobar was signed when there were apparently no other bidders for his services. He played every game up until July 8 (the Royals’ 89th game of the year) and has sat on the bench for six games total this year. After Tuesday’s game he’s hitting .203/.255/.283. Among batters with at least 400 plate appearances this year, his .202 TAv is the second worst in baseball. (Chris Davis with a .200 TAv is at the bottom.) Escobar has been worth -1.0 fWAR.

Escobar represents the past.

This is the purgatory where General Manager Dayton Moore often resides. Ride with the known veteran commodity and lose or go with the upstart struggling to find his major league footing and perhaps lose some more. Moore, as we know, can’t stomach the losses and loathes the idea of tanking. So the Royals get a return engagement of Escobar and a few other highly paid and underperforming veterans. 

With around a quarter of the season remaining, now is the time for the Royals to jettison the veteran bats and unleash the kids. The process is already underway as we’ve seen with the trades for Brett Phillips and Brian Goodwin, the waiver claim of Rosell Herrera and the return from suspension of Jorge Bonifacio. This trio, along with Mondesi, needs to be in the lineup everyday. That means there’s no room for Lucas Duda, Escobar, and as much as it pains me to write it, Alex Gordon. Duda should have some value somewhere as a left-handed platoon option. Either trade him for an organizational guy or let him walk. Gordon has a contract that makes him untradeable, so he’s not going anywhere but the bench. Escobar has no value whatsoever and needs to be released outright. 

The remainder of the season will be ugly, but not any uglier than we’ve already seen. Play an outfield of Herrera, Phillips and Bonifacio every day. Mix in Goodwin when he returns from the disabled list. Move them around on the field and in the lineup and find their optimal roles where they could maximize their potential in the future. And light a candle for Jorge Soler.

On the infield, let Hunter Dozier bounce back and forth between first and third. I don’t believe he’s a big leaguer by any stretch, but we have nothing but time, so let’s double check that assessment. Give Ryan O’Hearn a few reps at first and keep a first baseman’s mitt warm for Salvador Perez. Why not? We know Whit Merrifield can play just about anywhere, so there’s really no need to move him around, so let him get some reps up the middle with his double play partner Mondesi. Add the possibility of Herrera at third just for fun. 

Basically, if you’re over 26, you’re out. Perez and Merrifield are the exceptions. At least they’re under 30. Play the kids and play them exclusively. Mix and match and see what they can do. Some things won’t work, but maybe something positive will happen that can shape the future of a particular player. The Royals will never find out about some of these players unless they commit. They’re on pace for 113 losses. Who cares about the record when it’s that subterranean? Pave the road for The Process 2.0.

Here’s to the future.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/15/forget-the-past-focus-on-the-future/feed/ 3 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/10/friday-notes-august-10-2018/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/10/friday-notes-august-10-2018/#comments Fri, 10 Aug 2018 12:00:27 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36279 I can very much appreciate consistency and the consistency with which people argue with the lineups the Royals put out is pretty fantastic. The fact that people still have that kind of passion for a team on the fast track to 110-plus losses is really pretty impressive and I do think speaks to how much the fan base loves this team. My favorite part is the calls for Ned Yost’s job based on this lineup, not because I think he’s earned the right to be manager forever or anything but because there are a lot of creative comments. I saw one person indicate that Yost had cost the Royals 25 to 30 losses. Yes, that’s right. This person seems to believe that the Royals would be 60-53 with a better manager. There’s your laugh of the week. Let’s get to the notes.

• The Royals have the potential for a very awkward outfield logjam if their injured players actually return. Brian Goodwin could be back any time, including today, so there’ll be a decision to be made soon. Jorge Soler’s slow recovery makes this a little easier because he seems destined to be out until September, but the Royals could potentially have Goodwin, Soler, Alex Gordon, Rosell Herrera, Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio. The concern I have is that Bonifacio is going to end up as the odd man out because of the way he’s played. He’s hit just .209/.293/.336 and that’s after starting by hitting .306/.358/.510 in his first 13 games. He did go two for three with a walk and a double on Wednesday night, so maybe he’s starting to come around again, but he’s looked absolutely lost. The last month and a half or so of the season is really important to basically all the Royals outfielders other than Gordon because they’re fighting for playing time in 2019. We’ve talked about Herrera’s versatility being a big key for them, but even so, that’s six outfielder with Elier Hernandez knocking on the door in Omaha and potentially needing to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason as well as Khalil Lee and Kort Peterson just a couple steps away. This is a pretty good problem to have, but it’ll be interesting to see how this all gets sorted out.
• I touched on this a few weeks ago when I talked about Blake Perkins and his ridiculous walk rate and .400-plus OBP since coming to the Royals, but with Kelvin Herrera hitting the disabled list this week, I’m completely ready to walk back my criticism of the deal. Another factor in that is that Kelvin Gutierrez has been really good for Northwest Arkansas over the last month or so. I haven’t been able to confirm this yet, but it’s worth mentioning in this spot that I had heard he was working with a swing coach to try to generate more loft and add the power that he had been lacking in his game. Before last night, he had hit .340/.359/.530 over his last 26 games. The walk rate is obviously pretty atrocious, but a .190 ISO will play and he’d even hit two home runs in August already heading into last night’s action. I thought at the time there was at least a chance they thought Herrera was a ticking time bomb and wanted to move him as quickly as possible, and now that he’s on the disabled list and has been somewhere between average and bad with the Nationals, I’m believing that a lot more. There’s plenty to criticize Dayton Moore and the front office about over the last couple years and especially the last few months, but I believe this trade is not one of those things.
• I’m not sure what the point is where results weigh heavily enough to change opinions and I know we’re not there yet on Heath Fillmyer, but the results we’ve seen from him have been pretty darn good. I know that 21 strikeouts and 17 walks in 37.1 innings is a recipe for future disaster, but you have to at least be impressed with the way he’s handled himself. He’s sort of like Jakob Junis in that he really relies on a slider to be successful, but it’s been excellent for him with a 33.3 percent whiff rate. His changeup has been very good too with a 7 percent whiff rate and .190 average against it. I don’t think I’d be going out on a limb to say that Fillmyer won’t really be a factor with any team at any point in his career, but given the success he’s had with the slider and changeup, he’s definitely a pitcher who could benefit from using his fastball less, a tactic the Astros (and others) use to their advantage. In his Wednesday start against the Cubs, his curve was also very good, even though he didn’t get a single swing and miss on it. Like I said, I still don’t believe in Filly long term, but he has some things to build on and if he does, maybe he could be a viable option on a pitching staff in some capacity. It’s at least a lot more likely today than it was two months ago.
• The Royals don’t have many August trade candidates, but they do have a few guys on the 40-man roster who I suppose could possibly get moved over the next couple weeks. The most likely is Lucas Duda who could provide actual value for a contender as a lefty bat off the bench, but in the likely scenario that none of them are actually dealt, I think the Royals should really just release all of Duda, Alcides Escobar, Drew Butera and Jason Hammel toward the end of the month. Before you scoff and/or say that’s super-obvious, if the Royals can’t get anything in a trade for any of them releasing them is actually sort of a very Dayton Moore thing to do because it would give them the opportunity to latch on with a team and maybe even be on their playoff roster. I’m not sure why a team would want any of them, but hey, you never know. And obviously the important part from the Royals perspective is it opens up some 40-man roster spots to be able to give them to guys like Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady and Nicky Lopez for September call-ups (if they’re to get one). I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it definitely should, and I do think it actually might.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/10/friday-notes-august-10-2018/feed/ 4 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/07/recap-nooooooooooooope/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/07/recap-nooooooooooooope/#comments Wed, 08 Aug 2018 03:39:19 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36101 Earlier today, our very own David Lesky proffered some very interesting explanations for the Royals lack of success when it comes to the bullpen and where that leaves them for the future. I encourage you to read it, because:

1. It’s very good
2. Gettin’ dem clicks

The upshot, if I understand it (Lesky tends to write above my level of comprehension) is that the Royals are very bad out of the bullpen (hey, no surprise there) and will need to find some reinforcements either from the farm (Hello, Lovelady!) or in free-agency to shore up what’s been an all-around disaster area this season.

What he didn’t bring up is that the starters aren’t really holding up their end of the bargain with anything resembling regularity. Kansas City starters have accounted for 40 quality starts in 113 attempts this season; Tampa Bay, which regularly starts pitchers it has no intention of throwing for more than an inning or two, has 30 quality starts, according to Baseball Reference.

That sets up the punchline that is the Royals, who lost 5-0. Brad Keller, the starter, did not register a quality start, although he did pitch into the sixth to keep the game out of the hands of the Brandon Maurers of the world for as long as possible.

By and large, Keller was “effective” if you use the term as applied against other Royals starters—he made it into the sixth inning even, after giving up four earned runs. For grins—after all, the Royals are (and it’s been awhile since I did this, and it’s getting closer) outscoring opponents 74-72 in the first inning while being outscored 549-340 in subsequent frames—Keller let the Cubs stake the lead in the first inning.

Up until tonight, I’d never heard of David Bote and if I had, I would assume it was from an insurance advertisement. But he did the Royals up good, driving in two with a two-out triple in the first inning to score Javier Baez (one-out single) and Ben Zobrist (one-out double).

Because nothing of consequence happened in innings bottom one-through-four, aside from some nice Baez catches, a great Jason Heyward grab and a Salvador Perez gunning down of Zobrist on a steal attempt, we’ll fast-forward to the fifth. That’s where your boy Bote broke bad once again, banging a run-scoring single to score Baez and make it 4-0 after a relatively pedestrian sac fly by Zobrist brough in Victor Caratini for run No. 3.

The fifth and final Cubs run followed this formula: Bote (that man again) walk, Kyle Schwarber single, Ian Happ sac fly. And what, pray tell, were the Royals up to during this? A quick summation of Kansas City’s “offensive” evening:

(I use quotations because it was the offense and it was offensive. Has everybody gotten the joke who’s getting it? Okay, moving on.)

• First inning, Perez singles
• Second inning, Alcides Escobar singles
• Third inning, Alex Gordon singles
• Fifth inning, Whit Merrifield singles
• Seventh inning, Adalberto Mondesi singles
• Eighth inning, Rosell Herrera singles

And… yep, that’s the list. Four Royals—Perez in the first inning, Hunter Dozier in the sixth, BERTO and Escobar in the seventh—reached scoring position.

Oh, and you know how I mentioned Maurer? Would you be stunned to know he gave up a run in the eighth? You wouldn’t? Me neither. This team is trash. Six losses in a row. The record is [Rustin Dodd bashes my head in with a sock full of quarters]

Your Tweet of Despair

Alcides Escobar should not be within 200 miles of a major league organization #Royals

— Timothy Finley (@LetsGetTacoBell) August 8, 2018

The Bright Spot: Escobar and Dozier each reached base twice. Brian Flynn and Wily Peralta threw scoreless innings of relief. Ned Yost can wear the hell out of a windbreaker.

The Nadir: Drew Butera at first. Dozier at DH. Escobar anywhere. This is the hill I will die on, and if I must give my life so that lineup makes a lick of sense, so be it.

The Next Step: Familiar foe Jose Quintana moved from the South Side to the North Side last trade deadline and this is his first appearance against the Royals since. Also in attendance: Heath Fillmyer, who has never faced any member of the Cubs lineup. He’ll catch ‘em by surprise.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/07/recap-nooooooooooooope/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/06/recap-abandon-hope-ye-who-enter/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/06/recap-abandon-hope-ye-who-enter/#comments Tue, 07 Aug 2018 04:06:13 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36020 Aside from losing again (of course they lost, do grow up), there were some real positives for the Kansas City Royals in Monday’s game against the Chicago Cubs.

………

Okay, so I can’t think of anything off the top of my head. For the 40^th time this season, the Royals managed less than three runs. And sure, I’m going to spend another 700 words on this, but that’s something I feel like you, dear reader, need to know. The Royals have played 112 games; more than a third of them have featured less than half the MLB average of 4.45 runs per game. That’s probably why the Royals have done all that infernal losing.

One feels for Jakob Junis. He hasn’t been great of late, but his five innings five-hit, one-run ball that included eight strike outs were more than enough to win. He got the ERA back under 5.00. Maybe he hasn’t ascended to the No. 2/3 starter that many hoped he’d become, but good golly ain’t nobody gonna get many wins when they’ve got to throw a shutout and pray that the bats and bullpen do something to help.

Right out of the gate, things were looking good for the Baby Blues. Cubs leadoff hitter Anthony Rizzo lifted a lazy fly into shallow left and a hard-charging Alex Gordon snared it. In the second, Rosell Herrera gunned down Willson Contreras attempting to stretch a single into a double.

The defense was holding up its end of the bargain, and the offense came to life long enough to give the Royals a lead in the second. Herrera singled ot lead it off and moved to second on a Jorge Bonifacio tapper. With two down, Alcides Escobar earned his next multi-year extension with a run-scoring single to make it 1-0.

Junis would enjoy the lead for all of eight outs. In the top of the fourth, Ben Zobrist’s return to Kauffman Stadium, which had earned him a nice ovation in his first at-bat, was met with slightly more derision after he led off with a triple. Jason Heyward walked, Javier Baez struck out and then, with runners on the corners, Junis’ 1-2 slider missed by a sizable margin and got away from Salvador Perez behind the plate, allowing the wily Zobrist to race home from third to tie the game.

Both teams loaded the sacks in the fifth but came away with nothing. Addison Russell and Albert Amora Jr. picked up one-out singles to turn the lineup over to Rizzo, who walked. Zobrist hit a grounder to Drew Butera at first, who made what I’m sure was an awkward throw home for a guy who had played all of 50 innings at first in his career and none in 2018. Either way, Russell was out at the plate, and Heyward’s ground out to Hunter Dozier at third ended the threat.

The Royals bases-loaded failure felt very Royalsy, in that it was always likely to lose but gave hope either way. Butera singled with one out before Whit Merrifield struck out. But then Gordon singled and Perez was hit by a pitch to load ‘em up for cleanup man Hunter Dozier, who worked the count full… and grounded out to Rizzo at first to end the inning.

After 87 pitches, Junis was removed for Kevin McCarthy. Baez was happy to see him, because he launched a homer  on McCarthy’s first offering to put the Cubs ahead for good. For funsies, he added an RBI double in the eighth inning to score Zobrist after a leadoff single and provide the hardly-needed insurance run.

Your Tweet of Despair

Maybe don’t put your backup catcher as the first baseman?

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/06/recap-abandon-hope-ye-who-enter/feed/ 1 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/28/recap-royals-split-a-doubleheader-in-the-bronx/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/28/recap-royals-split-a-doubleheader-in-the-bronx/#comments Sun, 29 Jul 2018 02:43:00 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35240 The Royals and Yankees played two Saturday, and so did we here at BPKC. That allowed me to kill two birds with one stone and give the people what they really want: the first look at a post-Moustakas world in Kansas City.

Game One

It’s weird how sometimes you lose an integral part of the lineup and hit a brief hot streak, like the rest of the clubhouse realizes that they have to up their collective game in response.

Aside from a brief return to form in the middle innings, that was more or less what the Royals got in Game One, handing the Yankees a 10-5 beating on their home turf.

Brad Keller got into a whole bunch of trouble in the second inning, walking leadoff batter Greg Bird before surrendering a single to Neil Walker and hitting Austin Romine—doubly dangerous given the vitriol Jakob Junis received Thursday after hitting Aaron Judge. But then an Austin Wade tapper right in front of the plate—I guess Wade thought it was foul? Who cares—was snatched by Salvador Perez, who stepped on the plate and then tagged Wade for the rarely-seen 2U double play.

(Last one I can remember: Game 4, 2015 World Series when Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud made a meal of Ben Zobrist kind of being in his way.)

The Good Guys in Blue scored two in the third. With one out, Adalberto Mondesi doubled, followed by a Whit Merrifield walk. Rosell Herrera doubled the duo home to give Kansas City an early lead. A pitch hit the next batter, Perez. We’re going to see fireworks before this series is over, dadgummit.

Kansas City scored four in the fifth, leading things off with a BERTO single and a one-out ground-rule double by Herrera. Perez scored both with a single to center, then he made the easy trot home when Lucas Duda (still SUPER AVAILABLE, MLB GM’s) hit a sky-scraper that cleared the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees answered with two in the fifth on a Giancarlo Stanton homer, just the third allowed by Keller in more than 75 innings work between starting and relieving this season.

Keller wouldn’t make it out of the sixth, giving up three straight singles to Gleyber Torres, Bird and Walker to start the frame. Romine grounded into a run-scoring double-play—the double-play ball is Keller’s best friend—but Keller walked Wade, was visited by Ned Yost, who left him in, then gave up a single to Shane Robinson to score Wade and was summarily replaced by Kevin McCarthy.

(Note: I wish Elias or somebody tracked this because I’m almost certain opponents are hitting like .850 when Ned visits the mound but doesn’t take out his pitcher.)

An inning later, the Yankees would pull within a run. Didi Gregorious led off the inning with a single and scored on Gleyber Torres’ double, but Torres tried to be a hero and move to third on the play at the plate. Sheriff Salvy was having none of that, obviously. McCarthy and Tim Hill combined to get out of that bucket of syrup.

A Jorge Bonifacio walk, Alex Gordon single and Brian Goodwin homer put the Royals comfortably back in front again in the eighth, and Duda added a sac fly to score Herrera in the ninth to allow the Royals to reach double-digits in the run column for the first time since May 30 against the Twins.

Game Two

It’s always fun to have the new guy show up mid-game. Brett Phillips arrived in time to put on a uniform (wearing No. 14, if you’re curious) and the FSKC cameras caught him talking to Burch Smith in the dugout mid-inning, trying to figure out who everybody was.

Royals lost, 5-4.

The game itself got off to a bit of a slow start, at least from Kansas City’s perspective. With two down in the first, Perez singled, Jorge Bonifacio doubled and Duda was hit by a pitch to load the bases. Unfortunately, Hunter Dozier grounded out to end the inning and yes, we’ll see this scenario play out again later.

The Yankees pushed two across in the first. Brett Gardner and Stanton led off with singles, clean-up hitter (???) Miguel Andujar singled to score Gardner and then Heath Fillmyer hit Greg Bird to load the bases. Neil Walker capitalized with a sac fly to score Stanton and put a crooked number up in the New York first.

Perez homered in the third. That tied him with Yasmani Grandal for most in the bigs by a catcher this season and gave him 18 RBI in the last 15 games. With Moustakas now in Milwaukee, it makes no sense to pitch to Salvy if you’re an opponent, but they keep doing it even when his protection in the lineup is Bonifacio and Herrera.

The Yanks added another run in the fourth on a Shane Robinson homer, but from there it was smooth sailing for Fillmyer, who was solid over five innings (five hits, three earned) before turning it over to Brian Flynn for two scoreless innings. In the sixth, Flynn induced his 14^th double play ball, most by a reliever in the bigs this season.

During this time the bats were doing their part in the comeback. In the fifth, the Royals loaded the bags thanks to one-out singles by Merrifield and Herrera and a Perez walk. Bonifacio struck out, but Duda drew a bases-loaded walk to plate Whit and bring the Royals within a run. Dozier struck out swinging to leave the bases loaded again. Kid’s got a swell exit velo, though, so it’s all good.

They’d tie it an inning later, with Rosie plating Brian Goodwin after a leadoff single and an Escobar sacrifice (literally the only good Esky can do at the plate without help).

Dozier would finally get something right with a two-out double in the seventh that eventually led to him scoring the go-ahead run. Goodwin singled, moving him to third, Escobar was walked—on four pitches!!!—and then Drew Butera walked to plate Dozier. I have been led to believe the Yankees had a good bullpen, but you can’t prove it by Zach Britton. Trash, I say. He should be a Royal.

I mentioned Flynn’s two scoreless innings. They were great. The bad news is that he was brought out for a third and Bird greeted him by launching a homer into the bullpen. Then Walker doubled. Then Flynn was removed and Glenn Sparkman was left to clean up the mess. Then Sparkman gave up a bunt single to Romine and walked Torres on four pitches that weren’t particularly close to load the bases with nobody out.

It didn’t go as poorly as it could’ve. Aaron Hicks hit a sac fly to score Walker. A Gardner tapper to Sparkman got a much-needed second out but moved the remaining runners up 90 feet. Then Sparkman reached back for a little extra to fan Stanton and end the inning.

Bless their terrible batting hearts, the Royals tried like the devil against Aroldis Chapman in the ninth. BERTO led off with a single, but Gordon struck out, Escobar popped the first pitch up to Torres at second and, after BERTO stole second, Butera walked. Hope!

Then Whit took strike three on a backdoor slider. I’ll take a split.

The Bright Spot: Rosell Herrera collected five hits over the course of the doubleheader, taking his season average from .246 to .268.

The Nadir: Escobar was 0-for-7. It was pretty incredible, to be honest.

The Next Step: One more game awaits Sunday as Smith squares off against newly-acquire J.A. Happ as the Royals eye a split. 12:05 p.m. (CT) from the Bronx on FSKC.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/28/recap-royals-split-a-doubleheader-in-the-bronx/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/27/friday-notes-july-27-2018/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/27/friday-notes-july-27-2018/#comments Fri, 27 Jul 2018 12:41:06 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35069 Here we sit with just a weekend and a day between us and the trade deadline and there are questions about what the Royals roster will look like the next time we meet for Friday Notes. Mike Moustakas will almost certainly be in another uniform. He may already be dealt, depending on when you’re reading this. I’m not sure there’s a player on the team who is 100 percent sure to not be dealt other than maybe Salvador Perez, so it looks like it might be an exciting weekend for Royals fans as we inch closer to the end of this long season. But hey, at least they won a few games out of the break. Even though wins and losses don’t matter this year, it’s nice to have something positive to watch and talk about at least.

• I’m not sure how or why this started, but there’s a lot of discussion out there now about the role luck played in the Royals championship years. Luck or not, they won, so even though I’m a process over results guy, sometimes the results are all that matters, which is the case here. The 2014/2015 Royals taught me two things that I think are very important as I continue to watch and cover baseball, and these are two things I will never forget. The first is that clubhouse chemistry does matter. I don’t think it’s massively vital or anything, but it matters. Sometimes good chemistry comes from winning, so it’s a chicken and egg argument, but there’s value to be had in a roster having each other’s backs the way those Royals teams did. And the second and probably more important thing is that there is more than one way to win in baseball. I didn’t agree with probably the majority of what the Royals did to prepare for their postseason runs, but they still happened and there still was that parade in November of 2015. And I think that’s something that’s easily forgotten. Your way might be a great way to do things. Maybe it’s even a better way. But it’s certainly not the only way. As I get older, I think I start to realize that some people are so stuck in their way of thinking that they can’t even comprehend another way might work too. Getting a chance to be in the clubhouse occasionally and see those teams up close taught me a lot that actually translates to some life lessons too, so before I get too sappy about that, I’ll move on.
• Now, that said, the Royals do have their issues, and I think loyalty is one of them. This is especially true with Alcides Escobar, who continues to play like at all for no good reason. I get that the Royals are trying to be careful with Adalberto Mondesi for both health reasons and development reasons (though why start caring about his development now when they hadn’t until recently?), but this is getting ridiculous. If anything, their insistence on him playing and even being on the roster is hurting his legacy. It’s not like everyone loved Escobar before this season, but it would have been nice for a guy who isn’t productive at all anymore to have been able to get the sendoff that Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer did. Of course, time will absolve all of this and he will be remembered fondly for his role in the championship years, but it is just silly how much time he spends on the field even after the consecutive games streak was broken. I hope the Royals are able to make the right business decision with him and with Moustakas. Even if the market isn’t what they’d like for him, there’s no reason to keep him around. Ned Yost says that Dayton Moore isn’t going to trade him just to trade him, but really, he should. I’m sure there’s a number that would make sense if you want to extend him for three more years or something, but I don’t think it’s a number he’d take, even after his disastrous trip through free agency the first time. So trade the guy. Get what you can. And if you really want to bring him back, give him the deal in November that you would give him today and hope he says yes. I don’t think that’s necessary, but it’s at least a compromise.
• I was pretty hard on the Kelvin Herrera trade when it was made because I saw the return as really underwhelming. Maybe I’m talking myself into it a little more or maybe my opinion on the deal is just evolving as we see more facts are the actual deal, but I’m slowly becoming okay with it. I do believe the Royals wanted to move as fast as possible, especially after his first truly bad outing of the season against the Reds that night. And the market for rental relievers isn’t what people want it to be after the Aroldis Chapman for Gleyber Torres deal. But maybe more than anything, Blake Perkins has done way more than I ever expected from him. He’s hitting .282/.429/.376 with Wilmington with an 18 percent walk rate and a reasonable 20 percent strikeout rate. No, there isn’t much power, but the guy can really play center field and can steal some bases too. He’s just one of many high-OBP guys the Royals have in the lower levels, and if he can become a guy who can get on base at a good clip and play a fantastic center field, I’ll certainly take that. This could very well just be a hot streak as his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down from his time in Potomac, but it’s at least very encouraging.
• It looks like young pitching will be on the horizon for the Royals for this season and the near future, given their draft this season. With that in mind, and I’m sorry to harp on Perez, but they really need to find someone better behind the plate to help them. I know Sal’s arm is a huge plus and I know he’s going to catch a lot, but they need someone who is a better framer than he or Drew Butera. Heading into play last night, Perez ranked as the fourth worst in baseball and Butera was the seventh worst. You can argue until you’re blue in the face about whether or not that matters, but the fact is that it does. Cam Gallagher is, by all accounts, very good at it, so it might take care of itself when Butera hopefully leaves as a free agent, but if the Royals are serious about getting Perez out from behind the plate more often and they want to look elsewhere, they really need to be serious about finding someone who is a good enough receiver to really help the young pitching as they find their way to the big leagues over the next few seasons.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/27/friday-notes-july-27-2018/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/24/the-bleak-reality-of-the-royals-offense/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/24/the-bleak-reality-of-the-royals-offense/#comments Tue, 24 Jul 2018 12:00:18 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=34757 Last month at the mothership, Rob Mains published a pair of articles comparing three of the more accepted advanced offensive metrics. TAv is what we use here at Baseball Prospectus. OPS+ is found on Baseball Reference. And wRC+ is located at Fangraphs. Mains ran the numbers and found that, despite some fundamental differences in how the outcomes are weighted in the formulas, all three correlate quite nicely.

His findings were basically there is no wrong answer when it comes to which one you prefer. There were some outliers who didn’t correlate so well when comparing the three, based on some freakish offensive performances (think Barry Bonds), but for the most part, the advanced metrics are generally in agreement. It’s nothing Earth-shattering, but interesting nonetheless.

So how do the numbers stack up when looking at the 2018 version of the Royals offense?

The Royals don’t walk and they don’t hit home runs. The numbers don’t lie. Their walk rate of seven percent is 28th in baseball. (But third in the Central. My goodness, this division is abjectly awful.) They’re dead last in home runs, with 81 through the weekend. Although they are lurking behind the Marlins and Tigers at 83 and 82 dingers, respectively. By this fact, the Royals should fare worse in OPS+, which places more weight behind the free pass and the dinger, than your other favorite composite offensive metric.

TAv has factored situational hitting into the sauce. That means things the Royals really seem to be good at, like those productive outs, carry a little more weight. But, hold on a moment. Situational hitting is also things such as bringing home runners from third with fewer than two outs and avoiding double plays. Those are two things the Royals aren’t so good at. The Royals have a 12.5 percent double play rate, which is the third highest in baseball. They’ve scored just 45 percent of runners on third with fewer than two outs. That’s the fourth-worst rate in the majors.

So why not take a look at how the 2018 Royals do when it comes to all three offensive metrics? We know it’s not going to be pretty. They’re at or near the bottom in nearly every key offensive statistic you can dream up. Individually, there haven’t been any standout performances. This is a dreadful offense. Still, we are a Royals site. We soldier on.

The following table is sorted by plate appearances.

Hitter	TAv	wRC+	OPS+
Whit Merrifield	.286	119	120
Mike Moustakas	.274	105	109
Alcides Escobar	.203	44	49
Salvador Perez	.231	75	79
Alex Gordon	.244	82	84
Jorge Soler	.294	125	125
Lucas Duda	.259	97	99
Hunter Dozier	.212	60	63
Drew Butera	.198	35	38
Rosell Herrera	.231	70	75
Paulo Orlando	.160	5	13
Adalberto Mondesi	.252	90	93
Jorge Bonifacio	.292	108	108

There are a couple of things we can immediately glean from this table. For starters, it’s a very good thing Whit Merrifield is leading off these days. He’s the best hitter on the team who isn’t on the disabled list (we see you, Jorge Soler) and it obviously makes sense the top offensive performer should get the most chances. We can say the same about Mike Moustakas, although the bat has cooled. The Phillies had another scout in attendance on Monday, but Moustakas sat. Still, the trade winds are blowing hard. The wager here is he will be removed from this table sometime this week.

Alas, beyond the top two names, the good offensive news stops abruptly. The Royals continue to insist that Alcides Escobar is a capable everyday player, but that’s just not the case anymore. There’s no amount of defense that can justify giving that many plate appearances to a batter that abjectly awful in the batter’s box. 

Had we run these numbers at the end of June, things would have looked a little more grim in the case of Salvador Perez. And boy do the Royals need to get Jorge Soler back. Although it sounds like his return isn’t pending anytime soon.

The numbers, as you should expect given the linear regression relationship, are fairly consistent across the board. There isn’t an individual on this club who does anything in the extreme. (Although you could argue that Escobar makes a ton of outs. This would be accurate.)  Take someone like Lucas Duda as an example as he’s the most pedestrian of the current Royals roster. Sure, he walks a little less than league average and strikes out a little more often, but by and large, he’s a league-average player in every facet of his offensive game.

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO
Lucas Duda	.246	.314	.411	.725	.164
League	.247	.318	.408	.726	.160

Duda’s traditional numbers are in line with his more advanced metrics. A point off the average TAv and a couple points below league average when it comes to wRC+ and OPS+. He did well against a left-handed starter on Monday. He was never signed to this team to play the entire season. We’ll see if someone will pay for a platoon advantage when he hits against the righties and an overall league average player. 

The big outlier is in the lineup is Bonifacio. His TAv outpaces his wRC+ and OPS+ by quite a bit. Some of that certainly comes down to sample size. He has just 70 plate appearances on the year through Sunday. 

This little exercise doesn’t necessarily prove anything; it basically confirms what we already know about the Royals offense. It’s grim. Things look to change in the next week with the addition of Brian Goodwin and the probable subtraction of Moustakas. The return of Adalberto Mondesi from family leave should reduce the playing time of Escobar. There may be more lineup alterations forthcoming. However, the changes aren’t any kind of panacea. In fact, things look to get worse before they get better.

Still, given the suboptimal pieces there’s an optimal lineup to be constructed. It does still exist. Good luck figuring that out.

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