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		<title>Series Preview: Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles, August 31-September 2</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/31/series-preview-royals-vs-baltimore-orioles-august-31-september-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Aug 2018 15:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brad Keller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cedric Mullins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Hess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Bundy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Fillmyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trey Mancini]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=38073</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you’re a fan of futility, and really who isn’t, this weekend is the weekend you’ve been waiting for. The Royals welcome in the only team worse than them in all of baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, for a three-game set that could help to determine who gets the number one pick in next June’s draft. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you’re a fan of futility, and really who isn’t, this weekend is the weekend you’ve been waiting for. The Royals welcome in the only team worse than them in all of baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, for a three-game set that could help to determine who gets the number one pick in next June’s draft. Both teams are on fire (for them) with Baltimore coming off as sweep of the Blue Jays and the Royals in the midst of a 4-1 homestand. The Orioles are a different looking team than the squad the Royals played back in May after trading away Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach and Darren O’Day and simply releasing a few others, including Danny Valencia. Since they traded Machado, they’re hitting .271/.327/.441 and averaging five runs per game, which is weird. But since the deadline, they’re back to .258/.312/.411 and averaging 4.4 runs per game, so, you know, back closer to normal. They still can’t pitch, so at least that’s the same.</p>
<h3>Orioles Vitals</h3>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Record</strong></td>
<td width="448">40-94, 5<sup>th</sup> Place, AL East</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Team TAv</strong></td>
<td width="448">.241</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Team SP DRA</strong></td>
<td width="448">5.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Team RP DRA</strong></td>
<td width="448">5.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Team WARP Leader</strong></td>
<td width="448">Trey Mancini, 1.0 (Machado, Schoop and Gausman all higher, but gone)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="142"><strong>Record vs. Royals</strong></td>
<td width="448">2-1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Royals vs. Orioles</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Runs.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-38147" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Runs.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Runs" width="765" height="417" /></a></p>
<h3>Offense</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Offense.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-38149" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Offense.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Offense" width="760" height="413" /></a></p>
<h3>Pitching</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Pitching.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-38150" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/08/Royals-vs-Orioles-Pitching.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Pitching" width="764" height="432" /></a></p>
<h3>Orioles Projected Lineup</h3>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="110"></td>
<td width="49"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="44"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>TAv</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Cedric Mullins</td>
<td width="49">.305</td>
<td width="48">.379</td>
<td width="44">.492</td>
<td width="45">.289</td>
<td width="60">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Jonathan Villar</td>
<td width="49">.265</td>
<td width="48">.327</td>
<td width="44">.387</td>
<td width="45">.257</td>
<td width="60">0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Trey Mancini</td>
<td width="49">.243</td>
<td width="48">.305</td>
<td width="44">.416</td>
<td width="45">.247</td>
<td width="60">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Adam Jones</td>
<td width="49">.285</td>
<td width="48">.318</td>
<td width="44">.432</td>
<td width="45">.255</td>
<td width="60">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Chris Davis</td>
<td width="49">.173</td>
<td width="48">.249</td>
<td width="44">.316</td>
<td width="45">.207</td>
<td width="60">-2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Renato Nunez</td>
<td width="49">.256</td>
<td width="48">.341</td>
<td width="44">.385</td>
<td width="45">.249</td>
<td width="60">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Tim Beckham</td>
<td width="49">.219</td>
<td width="48">.277</td>
<td width="44">.355</td>
<td width="45">.227</td>
<td width="60">-0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Craig Gentry</td>
<td width="49">.269</td>
<td width="48">.321</td>
<td width="44">.346</td>
<td width="45">.234</td>
<td width="60">-0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Caleb Joseph</td>
<td width="49">.209</td>
<td width="48">.253</td>
<td width="44">.323</td>
<td width="45">.213</td>
<td width="60">-0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Projected Pitching Matchups</h3>
<h4>Friday – 7:15 pm</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="120"></td>
<td width="31"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="29"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="47"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">Andrew Cashner</td>
<td width="31">25</td>
<td width="48">141.0</td>
<td width="34">4</td>
<td width="29">12</td>
<td width="45">4.79</td>
<td width="47">6.35</td>
<td width="59">-1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="120">Brad Keller</td>
<td width="31">36</td>
<td width="48">105.1</td>
<td width="34">6</td>
<td width="29">5</td>
<td width="45">3.33</td>
<td width="47">5.42</td>
<td width="59">-0.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I saw what the Orioles were doing when they signed Cashner to a relatively modest deal this winter, but I didn’t like the move. He seemed prime for regression given his ridiculously low strikeout rate and his too high for it walk rate. He’s struck out more this year, but still not enough and he’s just been a little less fortunate on batted balls, so he’s allowed more hits, more runners and more runs. Plus, his home runs are up slightly, and when you have zero room for regression, you can’t regress anywhere. Still, on the whole, he’s probably been their best starter left standing, though Alex Cobb has been great of late. Cashner has been brutal in August with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. He’s struck out 12 and walked 12 in 28.2 innings. That’s…well not good. There’s not really a scenario where Cashner truly excels, but he’s especially bad a third time through the order, which he’s left in for quite often. He allows a .336/.424/.543 line when he’s facing the lineup a third time. Given his repertoire, I feel like Adalberto Mondesi staying hot is a safe bet here.</p>
<p>Keller didn’t really have it in his last start against the Indians, but against that good team, he still gutted it out through five and allowed just two runs while striking out five. After a bit of a performance dip heading into the break, he’s made seven starts and averaged six innings per start since. What’s really encouraging, and we’ve talked about this before, is that he’s striking out 21 percent of batters faced and is walking just eight percent. Neither is elite or anything, but he does seem to be getting better. He’s given up a few more home runs, but he’s still at a reasonable level there as well, so he’s working his way out of an Andrew Cashner 2017-type season and into a conversation as being able to sustain this. Keller didn’t pitch against the Orioles in May, so this is his first time facing them.</p>
<h4>Saturday – 6:15 pm</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="110"></td>
<td width="31"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="29"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="47"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Dylan Bundy</td>
<td width="31">25</td>
<td width="48">140.2</td>
<td width="34">7</td>
<td width="29">13</td>
<td width="45">5.37</td>
<td width="47">5.43</td>
<td width="59">-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Heath Fillmyer</td>
<td width="31">12</td>
<td width="48">51.1</td>
<td width="34">2</td>
<td width="29">1</td>
<td width="45">4.21</td>
<td width="47">6.83</td>
<td width="59">-0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The last time the Royals saw Dylan Bundy, he faced seven batters and all seven scored. That was his third consecutive bad start after a quick start in his first five, and it hasn’t really gotten a whole lot better since. He did have a really good June, but since then he’s made nine starts with an ERA of 8.87 and allowed 16 home runs in 44.2 innings. He’s allowed 65 hits in that time! In those nine starts, he’s allowed at least five runs six times. It’s just been a rough go for Bundy. If there is a bright side for him, it’s that the season is almost over. Lefties have absolutely mauled him this year with a .316/.377/.550 line, so look for the Royals to load up in this one. The key against him (and all pitchers really but especially Bundy) is to get ahead in the count. When the hitter has the advantage, he allows a .336 average and .694 SLG. That’s crazy. And just to show how insane his start against the Royals was with four homers allowed in seven batters, here was the line – 1.000/1.000/3.400. That’s really amazing actually. Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez each have homers against him, but I’d look for some damage from the young guys like Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn and Brett Phillips in this one.</p>
<p>It seems like every time I’m about to write off Fillmyer, he performs well. He handled the Indians pretty well on Saturday night last weekend, giving up just a run on three hits in six innings. Maybe more encouraging than the numbers were 10 swings and misses, which ties his career high that he had set against the Tigers and White Sox previously. He threw a career-high 105 pitches, so two extra days of rest may not hurt him for this one. The Orioles could be a sneaky tough matchup for him because if his slider is hanging, they still have enough power to make him pay and get some quick runs against him. But if it’s working, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him set a new swinging strike career high.</p>
<h4>Sunday – 1:15 pm</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="116"></td>
<td width="31"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="35"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="28"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="116">David Hess</td>
<td width="31">16</td>
<td width="41">78.0</td>
<td width="35">3</td>
<td width="28">8</td>
<td width="46">5.08</td>
<td width="48">7.90</td>
<td width="60">-2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="116">Jorge Lopez</td>
<td width="31">13</td>
<td width="41">33.1</td>
<td width="35">0</td>
<td width="28">4</td>
<td width="46">4.86</td>
<td width="48">5.54</td>
<td width="60">-0.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Hess has pretty steadily climbed the minor league ladder for the Orioles since he was drafted in 2014 and has shown a couple decent things in the big leagues in spite of the rough numbers. The home run has bitten him more than it did in AA last year or AAA this year, but he’s still allowing less than a hit per inning, which is nice to see from him. That said, there just isn’t enough there stuff-wise to be successful, especially in an organization like the Orioles. He throws a 92-93 MPH fastball, which isn’t really impressive these days and he throws it a lot. His slider is probably his best strikeout pitch, and it’s similar to Fillmyer in that when it’s good, he’s quite good, but when it’s not, look out. Like Cashner, he’s a guy you can wait out as he really starts to tire at about 50 pitches and then when you get even deeper, he gets in some big trouble. He hasn’t exceeded 100 pitches yet, but he did get to 99 in his best start of the year his last time out against the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>So far, Lopez hasn’t done anything to make me believe he isn’t a reliever, but, again, this is the time to find out. His first time through the order in three starts, he’s allowed a .269 average and two runs. He’s walked just one in that time. His second and third time through, he’s allowed nine runs in three games and walked seven while striking out six. There’s no shame in being a reliever, but I’m pretty confident that’s what he is. That said, the Orioles do their share of flailing at the plate and Lopez has a great curveball when he’s on, so I would say this is an opportunity for him to gain some confidence if he can get that pitch working and recover from his rough outing against the Indians on Sunday.</p>
<hr />
<p>I’d have to care to look more, but I have to assume this is the first time the Royals have had back to back weekends with all three starters coming into the game with a season ERA under 5 since like April or so. Maybe I’m wrong. It doesn’t matter. This is going to be a slap fight all weekend, but I think the Royals come out victorious in two of three given how bad the Orioles are and how bad they are especially on the road. Nothing would really surprise me this weekend other than good baseball.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Series Preview: Royals at Baltimore Orioles</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/08/series-preview-royals-at-baltimore-orioles/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/08/series-preview-royals-at-baltimore-orioles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2018 12:41:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Duffy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Bundy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Skoglund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Gausman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=27753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Four years ago, the Royals and Baltimore Orioles played a series to determine who would go to the World Series. Now, both are fighting for the number one pick in the 2019 draft. Life comes at you fast, I guess. The two teams got to this point in slightly different ways, but here we are [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Four years ago, the Royals and Baltimore Orioles played a series to determine who would go to the World Series. Now, both are fighting for the number one pick in the 2019 draft. Life comes at you fast, I guess. The two teams got to this point in slightly different ways, but here we are with both among the worst teams in baseball. For the Orioles, age and a suspect rotation have caught up to them, and their once-vaunted bullpen is no longer. Part of that is the absence of Zach Britton, who should be returning relatively soon, but some of it is just underperformance. All in all, this series shapes up to be a tickle fight for the ages.</p>
<h3>Orioles Vitals</h3>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>Record</strong></td>
<td width="312">8-26, 5<sup>th</sup> Place, AL East</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>Team</strong> <strong>TAv</strong></td>
<td width="312">.223</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>Team SP DRA</strong></td>
<td width="312">6.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>Team RP DRA</strong></td>
<td width="312">4.14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>Team WARP Leader</strong></td>
<td width="312">Manny Machado, 1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="312"><strong>2017 Record vs. Royals</strong></td>
<td width="312">3-3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Royals vs. Orioles</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Runs.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27759" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Runs.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Runs" width="763" height="415" /></a></p>
<h3>Offense</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Offense.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27757" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Offense.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Offense" width="764" height="414" /></a></p>
<h3>Pitching</h3>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Pitching.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27758" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2018/05/Royals-vs-Orioles-Pitching.jpg" alt="Royals vs Orioles Pitching" width="764" height="434" /></a></p>
<h3>Orioles Projected Lineup</h3>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="137"></td>
<td width="48"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="47"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="44"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="44"><strong>TAv</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Trey Mancini</td>
<td width="48">.258</td>
<td width="47">.329</td>
<td width="44">.387</td>
<td width="44">.252</td>
<td width="59">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Adam Jones</td>
<td width="48">.245</td>
<td width="47">.257</td>
<td width="44">.417</td>
<td width="44">.214</td>
<td width="59">-0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Manny Machado</td>
<td width="48">.346</td>
<td width="47">.430</td>
<td width="44">.623</td>
<td width="44">.334</td>
<td width="59">1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Chris Davis</td>
<td width="48">.171</td>
<td width="47">.264</td>
<td width="44">.243</td>
<td width="44">.188</td>
<td width="59">-1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Jonathan Schoop</td>
<td width="48">.230</td>
<td width="47">.266</td>
<td width="44">.344</td>
<td width="44">.244</td>
<td width="59">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Mark Trumbo</td>
<td width="48">.292</td>
<td width="47">.292</td>
<td width="44">.375</td>
<td width="44">.213</td>
<td width="59">-0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Pedro Alvarez</td>
<td width="48">.205</td>
<td width="47">.311</td>
<td width="44">.500</td>
<td width="44">.273</td>
<td width="59">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Chance Sisco</td>
<td width="48">.203</td>
<td width="47">.299</td>
<td width="44">.305</td>
<td width="44">.215</td>
<td width="59">-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="137">Anthony Santander</td>
<td width="48">.202</td>
<td width="47">.245</td>
<td width="44">.315</td>
<td width="44">.185</td>
<td width="59">-0.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Pitching Matchups</h3>
<h4>Tuesday</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="93"></td>
<td width="30"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="27"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="93">Danny Duffy</td>
<td width="30">7</td>
<td width="41">38.1</td>
<td width="34">0</td>
<td width="27">4</td>
<td width="46">5.63</td>
<td width="48">7.20</td>
<td width="59">-0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="93">Dylan Bundy</td>
<td width="30">7</td>
<td width="41">40.2</td>
<td width="34">1</td>
<td width="27">4</td>
<td width="46">3.76</td>
<td width="48">2.94</td>
<td width="59">1.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It took a little while longer than expected, but Bundy has developed into a really good starting pitcher. The raw numbers are quite good and 48 strikeouts in those 40.2 innings is really impressive, but I am a little bit concerned about the number of hits he allows. Someone with his stuff probably shouldn’t give up more than a hit per inning. He’s been barreled up kind of an amazing 11.2 percent of the time, and a lot of that is on his fastball where he’s allowed a .319 average and .597 slugging percentage in 72 at-bats that have ended on it. His curve has also been a problem, but the sample is much smaller. He has a nasty slider, which he uses far more to righties and might be why they’ve hit just .202/.256/.440 against him this year. Lefties, on the other hand, have a .342/.395/.468 line against him, so while the righties have supplied the power, lefties have done plenty of damage. My guess is Jorge Soler looks plenty bad against Bundy at times in this one and the offense needs to run through the bats of Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Lucas Duda if the Royals are going to find success in this game.</p>
<p>Duffy is planning to make yet another adjustment and return to the stretch, where he found so much success over the last couple seasons. His home run rate has skyrocketed this season after allowing four to Boston in his last start, and that’s going to have to change if his season is going to turn around. In addition to the home runs, his control and command have been a big problem with his highest walk total since 2015. The strikeouts are mostly there, so that’s not too much of a concern, but he’s put together the terrible combination of very hittable with a lack of control and that’s led to about a base runner and a half per inning. It’s just not a good combination. Duffy has had big-time success against the Orioles in his career, and that comes partially from really holding down Adam Jones (.087/.087/.087 in 24 PA) and Manny Machado (.176/.222/.294 in 18 PA). If he can do that again, he should be in good shape.</p>
<h4>Wednesday</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="116"></td>
<td width="31"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="27"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="116">Eric Skoglund</td>
<td width="31">5</td>
<td width="41">26.1</td>
<td width="34">1</td>
<td width="27">2</td>
<td width="46">6.84</td>
<td width="48">7.85</td>
<td width="59">-0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="116">Andrew Cashner</td>
<td width="31">7</td>
<td width="41">38.2</td>
<td width="34">1</td>
<td width="27">4</td>
<td width="46">4.89</td>
<td width="48">6.70</td>
<td width="59">-0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>What a weird career Cashner has had. He’s been both underrated and overrated. He’s both underperformed and overperformed his peripherals. He’s been good. He’s been bad. He’s been a strikeout guy with iffy to control and a pitch to contact guy with very good control. Last season with Texas, he struck out just 86 batters in 166.2 innings and posted a 3.40 ERA, which is the third lowest of his career. That led him to Baltimore, who probably liked him because of his ground ball rate. He’s upped his strikeout rate to nearly one per inning, but his walk rate has already risen by the same amount. And to make matters worse, his ground ball rate has plummeted from 48.6 percent to 37.7 percent. He’s getting hit and he’s getting hit hard. He still relies heavily on that sinker along with his four-seam fastball with both around 92-94 MPH. The four-seam fastball has been great, but the sinker has been the cause of big problems with a .611 SLG against it. Cashner threw six shutout innings against the Royals last year while with Texas but took a no-decision.</p>
<p>Skoglund, off the best start of his career, looked a lot like the pitcher we’ve seen quite a bit of during his last start. He gave up five runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings, but there was a sign of maybe some good in that he struck out six batters, so maybe that’s something he can continue in this one. The Orioles have performed better against lefties than righties with a .236/.321/.399 line against them compared to .215/.277/.351 against righties, which makes some sense with a lot of their power coming from the right side. Basically, it comes down to Skoglund’s curve in this one. The Orioles, as a team, are hitting .158 against curveballs with a .287 SLG. This’ll be Skoglund’s first career start against the Orioles and at Camden Yards.</p>
<h4>Thursday</h4>
<table width="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="110"></td>
<td width="30"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td width="27"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>DRA</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Ian Kennedy</td>
<td width="30">7</td>
<td width="41">37.0</td>
<td width="34">1</td>
<td width="27">3</td>
<td width="46">2.92</td>
<td width="48">5.53</td>
<td width="59">-0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="110">Kevin Gausman</td>
<td width="30">7</td>
<td width="41">43.2</td>
<td width="34">2</td>
<td width="27">2</td>
<td width="46">3.30</td>
<td width="48">3.37</td>
<td width="59">0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Gausman has been an enigma. He has great stuff but has been hit pretty hard the past couple seasons, last year especially. He made 34 starts, but only pitched 186.2 innings, partially because he couldn’t keep runners off base, allowing 10 hits per nine and more walks than ever before. This year, he’s limited the hits and the walks, but at the expense of strikeouts. It’s working to this point with a solid ERA and DRA, so the Orioles certainly aren’t complaining. Gausman works a lot with his fastball and it’s pretty good, averaging about 93 MPH with decent movement. He also mixes in a splitter and a slider, and the splitter accounts for a good amount of swings and misses with a 37.1 percent whiff rate and 31.4 percent strikeout rate, easily the highest of all his pitches on both counts. He’s faced the Royals once in his career, last year, and gave up five runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings in the game Soler hit the missile to dead center (but it wasn’t against Gausman). He did allow a three-run blast to Moustakas, so look for Moose to try to recreate that magic.</p>
<p>Ian Kennedy continued down the path to a very good season in his last start against Detroit, lowering his ERA to 2.92 and while the DRA is still high, a lot of the peripherals are very encouraging. His strikeout rate is up a bit from 20 percent last year to 21.7 percent this year, and his walk rate has dropped a ton, from 9.3 percent last year to 6.8 percent this year. The one area where regression seems likely to hurt him in his strand rate where he’s left 81.5 percent of runners on base, though that never did come down in 2016, which was a very solid season for him, so maybe he can maintain it. I wouldn’t count on it, but maybe. Kennedy has made three starts in Baltimore in his career with one coming last year when he gave up four runs on eight hits in four innings. Somehow he didn’t allow a home run, though, so I guess that’s sort of a victory. While there isn’t much in the way of experience between Kennedy and really any Orioles hitters, he has limited Pedro Alvarez quite well. In 21 plate appearances. Kennedy’s curve might be a weapon in this one, for the reasons Skoglund’s could be, but if his changeup is on, it could be just as deadly as the Orioles are hitting .208 against changeups this year with a .309 SLG.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In all, these are two bad teams, but I think the Royals are a little better. Normally I’d say that’s two out of three for Kansas City, but they’re both in Baltimore and facing the Orioles two best starters this season, which tips the scales for me, so I think the Royals claim just one of three this week.</p>
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		<title>2017 Royals Trade Targets: Starting Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/11/2017-royals-trade-targets-starting-pitchers/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/11/2017-royals-trade-targets-starting-pitchers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jul 2017 12:17:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derek Holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edinson Volquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Nova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jaime Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Hahn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jhoulys Chacin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Koehler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trevor Cahill]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, folks, the Royals are 44-43 and right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead of digging through other team’s farm systems, it looks like we’ll be digging through other team’s big league rosters to see where the Royals can improve. By my count, I see three places the Royals are targeting to upgrade. One [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, folks, the Royals are 44-43 and right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead of digging through other team’s farm systems, it looks like we’ll be digging through other team’s big league rosters to see where the Royals can improve. By my count, I see three places the Royals are targeting to upgrade. One is starting pitching, one is relief pitching, and one is DH any way they can. So today is the first in a three-part series looking at starting pitching, position players (I’ve got a bonus non-DH just to make everyone happy) and relievers.</p>
<p>The Royals could very well surprise when looking for a starting pitcher, but I think they’ll focus on middle of the rotation arms to help lengthen the crew rather than go for the big name at the top. Part of the reason for that is they don’t have the prospect capital to go get one of those pitchers. I do think the system is better than many believe, but when competing with teams with great, deep systems, the Royals will get left in the dark.</p>
<p>Here are the starting pitchers I think they will be targeting in the next few weeks, listed alphabetically:</p>
<p><strong>Trevor Cahill –</strong> The starter turned reliever turned starter again has had his injury issues and has only made nine starts this year, but he’s been very good with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.46 DRA. With a base salary of $1.75 million (and an assignment bonus of $250k with a trade), he’s probably the right price for the Royals. What I like about Cahill is that he can give you some starts and then likely slide into the bullpen as a solid piece there if they do make a playoff run. I don’t think he’d cost too much in terms of prospects either.</p>
<p><strong>Andrew Cashner –</strong> He’s having a deceiving season. He’s been healthy, but he’s made 14 starts and averaged almost six innings per. The problem is that he’s struck out just 4.4 per nine and walked four per nine. That’s not a good combination. His 3.54 ERA comes with a 4.51 FIP and 5.73 DRA. I would stay as far away from Cashner as possible, but I like to be thorough here. I imagine the Rangers wouldn’t require much of a return on him, so if they’re looking for a guy just to take the ball every fifth day and avoid the young pitchers and/or Travis Wood, I guess he’d fit the bill.</p>
<p><strong>Jhoulys Chacin –</strong> He’ s made 18 starts and averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.67 DRA. He’s a back of the rotation starter if there ever was one, but he gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits home runs reasonably well and can be reliable. Like Cahill, he’s super cheap with a salary of $1.75 million and no assignment or other bonus. A move for Chacin wouldn’t make the Royals the favorites or anything but it wouldn’t be bad.</p>
<p><strong>Jesse Chavez –</strong> I promise there are guys on this list who aren’t <em>just</em> placeholders in a rotation, but the alphabet is what the alphabet is. Chavez is just another guy, but he’s someone else who has been successful in a relief role in the past, so he could be put there in the postseason in the Chris Young/Kris Medlen role if the Royals get there and be impactful. He’s not nearly as cheap as some of the others on this list with a base salary of $5.75 million and $3 million in incentives, so I see him as unlikely, but the Royals could offer a package that doesn’t part with much to get him.</p>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada –</strong> As the Blue Jays inch closer to selling with every loss, I imagine Estrada will be a popular name. He’s having a terrible season with a 5.17 ERA and a 7.41 DRA, but he’d been so good the last two years that you trade for him hoping it’s just a weird blip. He’s struck out a ton of batters and has exhibited his typically fantastic control, but he’s gone from allowing less than seven hits per nine to allowing more than nine. His opponent’s TAv is consistent with the past three seasons (all .261 before this year’s .265), so it does seem that he’s dealing with some bad luck. You might get a really nice middle of the rotation piece with him.</p>
<p><strong>Scott Feldman –</strong> Of all the mediocre pitchers on this list, Feldman might be my least favorite for the Royals to acquire, but at a base salary of $2.3 million and maybe another $600k or so in bonuses, he’s inexpensive and has been solid before. It’s probably not fair that I dislike him so much as a target because he has a 3.94 ERA and a 4.36 DRA after posting a 3.97 DRA and a 4.84 DRA mostly in relief last year. He wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects, you wouldn’t think, so this is a real possibility.</p>
<p><strong>Jaime Garcia –</strong> Garcia hasn’t exactly been the picture of health throughout his career, but he’s made 16 starts this year and hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been good. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 5.05 DRA with not enough strikeouts and too many walks. He’s also not especially cheap. I’d pass here, but Jon Heyman listed him, so I will too, I guess.</p>
<p><strong>Jesse Hahn –</strong> I’m not sure what it is about Hahn I like, but the A’s don’t share that with me, and with good reason. He’s posted a 5.30 ERA and 5.77 DRA this year after a 6.02 ERA and 6.82 DRA last season. I remember being a fan prior to the 2016 season and not really knowing where things went wrong. I’d take a shot on the potential that he could get back to where he was before with Eiland working with him. He’s limited home runs well for the most part in his career, so maybe they can fix him. Hahn would likely require a return that the Royals might not love to part with, but I think what he could be as a middle of the rotation starter would be worth the shot.</p>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ –</strong> This is potentially a waste of space, but I can’t get it out of my head that the Blue Jays would be a good match for Jorge Soler, and I can’t stop thinking about Soler for Happ. After being fixed in Pittsburgh, he had a good showing in the 2016 AL Cy Young race, winning 20 games with a 3.18 ERA. He’s followed it up this season with a 3.54 ERA and 4.09 DRA. He’s not great, but he’s definitely a solid arm who could make a rotation better. I don’t even know if the Blue Jays would trade him, but if they can get some right-handed power for a few seasons in return, maybe.</p>
<p><strong>Derek Holland –</strong> I lied about Feldman. Holland is my least favorite player on this list, but Heyman mentioned him too, so here he is. Dayton, if you’re reading this, don’t do it.</p>
<p><strong>Tom Koehler –</strong> A quick glance at Koehler’s numbers and you might vomit, but this is kind of out of nowhere for him, and the Royals would have him for another season. Maybe it’s not worth it, but for a guy with an ERA of 8.00 and a DRA of 7.25, you might be able to get him for a song and see if you can get him back to his back of the rotation stuff.</p>
<p><strong>Ivan Nova –</strong> I’m not sure Nova would even be available, especially not for a price the Royals should pay, but his insanely good control is appealing. He doesn’t strike many out, so I’d hesitate a bit with him, but he’s averaging 20 outs per start, and there’s a ton of value there even if it just gets you through the regular season. Of course, if you’re giving up what you’d likely give up, you’d hate to just get through the regular season with it.</p>
<p><strong>Edinson Volquez –</strong> A reunion with Ed could be in the offing given what the Royals need. He’s had an okay season for Miami with a high point of a no-hitter earlier this year. The issue is he’s walked far too many batters this season, but he has a 4.19 ERA and a 3.65 DRA. The bigger issue is that he’s owed $13 million next season. The Marlins would have to eat some money on this deal, but at that point, the prospect haul might be too much for him. I don’t think it’s likely, but I imagine the Royals will at least call to find out if they can make it happen.</p>
<p>I should note that in the original version of this article, I had Dan Straily of the Marlins listed. He&#8217;s cost-controlled and team-controlled and good. If he were to become available, he&#8217;d be my top choice, but it seems as if the Marlins aren&#8217;t interested in dealing him, so he was removed from this list.</p>
<p>Stay tuned for position players and relievers the Royals could target over the next couple days.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Trade Candidates: The Starting Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/19/trade-candidates-the-starting-pitchers/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/19/trade-candidates-the-starting-pitchers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2016 12:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Straily]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Smyly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ervin Santana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hector Santiago]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Nova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Odorizzi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Hellickson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge De La Rosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Junior Guerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Garza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Shoemaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rich hill]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For years, when discussing the Royals at the trade deadline, the question asked was who it was the Royals could trade to help improve their future. After winning back-to-back AL pennants and a World Series title, the question is now who the Royals can acquire to help their current team. I have to say that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For years, when discussing the Royals at the trade deadline, the question asked was who it was the Royals could trade to help improve their future. After winning back-to-back AL pennants and a World Series title, the question is now who the Royals can acquire to help their current team. I have to say that it can be a lot of fun trading veterans for prospects and getting to dream on them, but the winning in the now thing is its own brand of fun that simply can’t be beat.</p>
<p>With that in mind, the Royals sit a couple weeks from the deadline in a position to make a move for a playoff spot. While they might not ultimately be “buyers” this trade season, they are most definitely in the market. Today, I’m going to look at the starting pitching they could acquire to fortify a rotation that ranks in the bottom half of the league in many categories. Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at position players, mainly outfielders, they can acquire to help round out an offense that hasn’t performed up to the level of expectations.</p>
<p>The Royals have the ammunition to acquire basically any player on the market with a guy like Raul Mondesi. That doesn’t mean they’re going to use him as a trade chip, but the possibility still exists until it doesn’t exist.</p>
<p>Let’s get started. As always, these names are in alphabetical order, so that has nothing to do with my preference of player.</p>
<p><strong>Andrew Cashner</strong> &#8211; In 2013 and 2014, Cashner looked like a rising star. He had been moved to the rotation by the Padres and was solid in that role. In 50 games (45 starts), he went 15-16 but had a 2.87 ERA in 298.1 innings. He had good stuff, but that didn&#8217;t seem to translate to strikeouts. Then last year, the strikeouts arrived, but he was much more hittable and his ERA jumped to 4.34. He&#8217;s been even worse this year and has spent time on the disabled list. He&#8217;s owed a little more than $3 million the rest of the year and is a free agent following the season. Some teams will find him attractive because he&#8217;s cheap and talented, so he&#8217;ll fetch something on the market, but he probably won&#8217;t be crazy in terms of prospects. This could be a fit if the Royals think they can figure him out quickly.</p>
<p><strong>Jorge De La Rosa</strong> &#8211; This is an old friend who I never thought would be much of anything in the big leagues, but he&#8217;s made a nice career for himself in Colorado. He was actually the player to be named later in the Royals deal for Ramon Ramirez back in 2008 and he&#8217;s been there ever since. He still walks too many batters and he doesn&#8217;t strike out as many as you&#8217;d like, but he&#8217;s a solid arm. He had a brutally bad start to the year, but after a short stint in the bullpen, he has a 2.68 ERA in his last six starts over 37 innings. He&#8217;s due about $6 million the rest of the year and then is a free agent. I&#8217;m thinking he can be had for a prospect in the 11-15 range or so, which the Royals could part with pretty easily.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Garza</strong> &#8211; Garza was good at one time, but he isn&#8217;t any more. The Brewers seemed like they got a pretty good bargain on him when they gave him four years prior to 2014, but he&#8217;s really fallen off a cliff. He spent the first part of this season on the disabled list. I really don&#8217;t like this option, but he&#8217;s out there and the Royals like reclamation projects. He&#8217;s owed about $6 million the rest of this year, $12.5 million next year and has an option for 2018 that will likely be for $5 million. If the Royals think they can figure out his issues, that&#8217;s a bargain. If not, that&#8217;s an albatross. My money is on albatross.</p>
<p><strong>Junior Guerra</strong> &#8211; This is a pretty good story. He was originally a catcher, but eventually moved to the mound and hung around the minors for a long time. He finally made his debut last year for the White Sox, but was released and then claimed by the Brewers. He&#8217;s been fantastic this season, going 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 starts. He&#8217;s averaging more than six innings per start. He&#8217;s striking out just under eight per nine innings and walking less than three. He&#8217;s limiting hits. Basically, he&#8217;s been a revelation. The Brewers have no real reason to trade him because he&#8217;s cheap and under control for a long time, but I&#8217;d be worried that he&#8217;s a flash in the pan. Still, what he&#8217;s done would be huge for the Royals in that fifth spot. I can&#8217;t imagine he&#8217;d be too pricey to acquire, but would still cost more than Garza, in all likelihood.</p>
<p><strong>Jeremy Hellickson</strong> &#8211; I think Hellickson would be the most Royals and Dayton Moore acquisition you can imagine. When he&#8217;s been good, it always seems he&#8217;s been good in spite of everything. He&#8217;s not quite the extreme fly ball pitcher he&#8217;s made out to be, but he&#8217;s definitely not a ground ball pitcher. He&#8217;s started to strike out more batters and he does have good control, so he&#8217;s a guy you can catch lightning in a bottle with. He&#8217;s owed a bit more than $3 million and then is a free agent following the season, but I think he&#8217;ll be in demand, so he might cost more than he&#8217;s worth. Scratch that, he will cost more than he&#8217;s worth. I could absolutely see this happening, but I&#8217;m not going to love it if and when it does.</p>
<p><strong>Rich Hill</strong> &#8211; Hill is the best name on the market. He was out of the majors and then made his return last year for the Red Sox. Of course, he turned that into a $6 million deal with the A&#8217;s and he&#8217;s been great this year for them. He&#8217;s missed time with a groin injury and left his start on Sunday after five pitches with a popped blister. He&#8217;s not the picture of health, but he&#8217;s been excellent and it looks like the changes he&#8217;s made have been for real. With pretty much every team needing starting pitching in on Hill, I think the price might be too high and one the Royals can&#8217;t match, but they&#8217;re watching him and will be in on him. There&#8217;s already a report the A&#8217;s asked the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza, a top-20 prospect in the game. They backed off that, but the Royals can&#8217;t match that.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Moore</strong> &#8211; Moore was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he had to go under the knife for Tommy John. He came back last year and wasn&#8217;t what you&#8217;d call great. He started this season slow but has a 2.51 ERA and a roughly 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio over his last seven starts where he&#8217;s averaged about six and a half innings. There&#8217;s certainly risk with Moore, but the upside is undeniable. He&#8217;s owed a bit more than $2 million the rest of this year and then has options for $7 million, $9 million and $10 million the next three seasons. He&#8217;s not going to come cheap, but he could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come. It might be worth the cost here to help both this team and the next few.</p>
<p><strong>Ivan Nova</strong> &#8211; Nova isn&#8217;t what you&#8217;d call good, but he won&#8217;t be expensive in either prospects or money. He&#8217;s owed around $2 million the rest of this season and has a 5.46 ERA the last three seasons. He doesn&#8217;t walk many and he gets a decent amount of strikeouts. Plus, there&#8217;s a history with Dave Eiland, so maybe that&#8217;s something that he sees in him. I don&#8217;t know. Nova is probably throwing a dart at a problem, but he&#8217;s out there and could be better than what they&#8217;ve had.</p>
<p><strong>Jake Odorizzi</strong> &#8211; I&#8217;ll start by saying I don&#8217;t see this happening. Odorizzi has struggled lately but did pitch well on Sunday in getting the win against the Orioles. He&#8217;s got good control, gets strikeouts and gives up some home runs, so he&#8217;d fit right in with the Royals. He&#8217;s also under team control for three more seasons after this one and will head to arbitration for the first time before the 2017 season. He&#8217;s going to cost a ton and the production probably doesn&#8217;t match up with what his return will be if they trade him. Still, it&#8217;s an interesting thought.</p>
<p><strong>Ervin Santana</strong> &#8211; I love this idea even though Santana is owed $27 million in 2017 and 2018 and about $6.5 million the rest of this season. He&#8217;s still a quality pitcher and could fill a hole in the rotation for the next two years to come. He&#8217;s owed a little more money than you&#8217;d like, and I&#8217;m not sure the Twins will see a need to move him if they think they can compete over the next couple seasons. Now, maybe they&#8217;d pay down the deal in order to get a better caliber of prospect back, but I think the best bet for the Royals would be to get him at full price without having to pay too much in prospects. With Terry Ryan&#8217;s firing, the Twins may be a little more inclined to sell, so that could help here.</p>
<p><strong>Hector Santiago</strong> &#8211; He doesn&#8217;t get deep into games, but the innings he does give are quality. He limits hits well, gets a few strikeouts and walks a few too many. He also gives up more than his share of homers, but he&#8217;s a good guy at the back of the rotation. He&#8217;s owed a little less than $2.5 million the rest of the year and is arbitration eligible next year before hitting free agency. The Angels system is so weak that Santiago might be a guy the Royals could target with some quantity from the system over high quality. And he&#8217;d give them an extra option next year for a relatively inexpensive salary.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Shoemaker</strong> &#8211; Shoemaker ditched his curve and began using his splitter more and turned into a completely different pitcher. Since May 21, he&#8217;s made 11 starts and averaged just under seven innings per outing. He has a 2.36 ERA with 88 strikeouts and nine walks. These are ace numbers. But because his track record isn&#8217;t that great, if the Angels are willing to sell on him, they probably aren&#8217;t going to get quite as much as someone with those numbers should command. I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;ll trade him. They shouldn&#8217;t, anyway. If so, it might be the same situation as Santiago where the Royals could use quantity to get him. He&#8217;s not arbitration eligible until next year and won&#8217;t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. If this is for real, he would be a huge get.</p>
<p><strong>Drew Smyly</strong> &#8211; He hasn&#8217;t been good this year by any stretch, but he strikes out a ton of hitters and limits walks pretty well. Of course, he also gives up plenty of hits and plenty of homers. He also doesn&#8217;t have the best track record concerning health. I&#8217;m not sure the Rays would trade him with his value as low as it currently is, but if they did, he&#8217;d be a great buy low candidate. I also think he would cost a lot more than the Royals would be willing to pay.</p>
<p><strong>Dan Straily</strong> &#8211; Here&#8217;s another guy who makes a lot of sense. Straily isn&#8217;t going to ever be confused for a top of the rotation arm, but he was solid with Oakland in 2012 and 2013 and after a lost last two years, he&#8217;s resurfaced with the Reds where he has a 4.14 ERA as a starter in 100 innings. He&#8217;s a back of the rotation guy with not enough strikeouts and a few too many walks, but he&#8217;s very difficult to hit, which is his saving grace and helps his WHIP to be a reasonable 1.21 as a starter. He&#8217;s already 27, but he has a ton of control left as he&#8217;s not even eligible for arbitration. I wonder if he&#8217;d be part of a package deal or if the Royals could get him for a bottom half of the top 20 prospects they have. I first mentioned him in early June, and still think he&#8217;d be a nice fit.</p>
<p>So there are a bunch of starters who I think could be available and the Royals could keep an eye on. I&#8217;m not sure they&#8217;ll make any trade, but unless they go way off the grid, these are the likely targets. Tomorrow, I&#8217;ll cover the position players they could be after.</p>
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