Rangers Vitals

Royals vs. Rangers

Offense

Pitching

Rangers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday

Following the 2016 season, it looked like Colon might never slow down. Then he was terrible in 2017 and struggled to find work this season before the Rangers gave him a shot. And for awhile, it looked like he was back on track. In his last five starts, he’s been a complete disaster, going 1-3 with a 9.51 ERA and allowing 10 home runs in 23.2 innings. He lives with his two-seam fastball, throwing it nearly two-thirds of the time, and it’s not what it once was, averaging about 87-88 MPH. He does throw his four-seamer a bit now and it comes in a little faster, averaging a touch over 90, but he really lives with the two-seam fastball. A big issue is that his changeup has been massacred this season with opponents hitting .406 on it with a slugging percentage of .844. At this point in his career, I think it’s fair to wonder if he wouldn’t benefit from a shift to the bullpen. The first time through, he’s allowed a .200/.222/.448 line, so still too many extra base hits, but he’s been generally pretty good. The second time through, that jumps to .304/.343/.559. Then the third time through, it’s even more excessive with a .299/.324/.642 line allowed. No Royals have faced Colon a ton even though he’s been around forever, but Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas both have been really good against him in limited exposure.

Kennedy has been rocked twice this season, giving up nine runs to Baltimore in May and eight runs to Oakland a couple starts back. Since that most recent debacle, he’s been pretty good and even went eight shutout innings in his last outing against the Reds. The concern I continue to have, though, is that he just isn’t generating hardly any whiffs. When he’s on, he’s getting a lot of swings and misses from both his changeup and his high fastball. And the changeup has been a fantastic pitch for him this year, but his last start, which was easily his best of the season (the only time he’s gone beyond six innings), he didn’t use many at all, so that’s at least somewhat interesting. Like Colon with the Royals, no Rangers have faced Kennedy a ton, but not too many have actually hit him well, so that’s something.

Tuesday

Hamels is the Rangers best starter and the numbers look generally good, but DRA just doesn’t see what he’s done as sustainable at all. His FIP isn’t quite as dreary, but it’s still not good at 5.34. A lot of the issue is that he’s walking a few too many hitters and has given up quite a few home runs this season. He’s currently allowing the highest average exit velocity of his career as well as the highest barrel and hard hit rate, which could be why DRA isn’t a huge fan of his this season. His four seam fastball has been a problem this season with opponents hitting .357 against it with a slugging percentage of .857. He just isn’t getting anyone to swing and miss it with a whiff rate of just 6.2 percent. That’s insanely low. He faced the Royals when they were in Arlington last month and took the loss when he went 6.1 innings and gave up five runs on eight hits with two home runs allowed and three walks. Drew Butera and Salvador Perez both homered, but I think it’s not especially likely they both play in this game.

Hammel’s ERA rose to 6.28 after his start in mid-May, but has really turned his season around over his last five starts, going 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA over 31.2 innings. He’s gotten a few more swings and misses and has only walked five batters in those five starts with only two home runs allowed. He has allowed a few too many hits, but I think a lot of that is being around the strike zone maybe a bit more than you’d really like. In that stretch, he went 5.1 against these very Rangers and struck out 10 while walking just two. If you listened to the game on the radio, you would have heard Denny praising Hammel while also putting the Rangers down, so maybe it’s not entirely him, but he has been much better lately and has given the Royals a good shot to win when he takes the mound.

Wednesday

Mendez is still just 23, but has seen a lot of his prospect shine wear off after seeing big league time over the last three seasons and struggling in each of them. He did finally get his first career start against the Rockies on Friday and was pretty bad, giving up six runs over three innings with just one strikeout. He was the number 56 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com prior to last season, but was just okay in Double-A last year and has been downright bad in Triple-A this year with not many strikeouts and way too many walks. Unfortunately, this is exactly the pitcher the Royals struggle against. Of course, the Royals struggle against pretty much every pitcher these days. In his big league career, Mendez has been okay against lefties and a disaster against righties. That’s pretty much the case with his minor league season this year as well, so if the Royals are going to find success, I feel like Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez and maybe Whit Merrifield, if he plays, will have to carry the load.

Junis is coming off two starts in a row where he allowed six runs over 5.1 innings and three home runs. He’s seen his ERA jump nearly a full run, but his last start against Houston was particularly troubling because he just couldn’t get any swings and misses. Now, the Rangers are a good team to get back on track against if his slider is working because they swing and miss plenty. The home run is a pretty good barometer for if Junis is on. He’s allowed 14 of his 18 home runs in four of his 14 starts. He has a 2.80 ERA in the 10 starts that he hasn’t allowed multiple home runs. I know that’s a weird way to put it, but it’s the trend. This’ll be his first career start against the Rangers, but I do believe their contact issues could make this a good matchup for Junis.

Is it wise to predict a Royals victory? Probably not, but I’m so crazy that I’m going to do it and say the Royals win one of three in this series and get back on pace for more than 50 wins.

Rangers Vitals

Rangers vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Rangers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday

Bibens-Dirkx made his much awaited big league debut (for him) last season at age 32 and wasn’t horrible, I guess. He gave the Rangers some important innings when they were bitten by injuries (as they are now), but it wasn’t sustainable success with so few strikeouts. He also allowed 14 home runs in 69.1 innings. He relies heavily on a sinker-slider combination, but he doesn’t get nearly as many ground balls as you’d expect with his low strikeouts along with the heavy sinker usage. He isn’t overpowering at all with his sinker averaging just 90-91 MPH. His changeup and curve proved to be his most effective pitches last year, which surprisingly makes him a good opponent for the Royals to face as they’ve fared well on both changeups and curves this season. He did not face the Royals last season, but I could actually see this being a good offensive game for the boys in blue.

If I got paid $1 every time I was asked what’s wrong with Danny Duffy, I’d have gone a long way to pay off my student loans. I don’t know the answer. I know his slider is getting crushed, and I know that some might believe he’s tipping his pitches, but I think it’s much more problematic that he’s leaving it down the middle far too often. Why is he doing that? I don’t know. I can’t imagine his plan is to put a breaking pitch in the middle of the plate, but what do I know? He’s accountable in his words, but until he starts to figure something out, those words will grow emptier and emptier. Fair or not, that’s the rub of being a professional athlete. Maybe he can use his past success against the Rangers (3.25 ERA in six starts spanning 36 innings) to get going. The Rangers had hit .235/.312/.422 against lefty starters, which is not especially great, but it’s better than their numbers against righties. No Ranger has had huge success against him in the past, so maybe, just maybe this is the game for him. I won’t be counting on it, but we can hope.

Friday

When the Royals signed Minor prior to the 2016 season, they did so with the hope that he could be a solid starter and the understanding that he might just be a reliever. It turned out he was good enough in that role to get a big contract from the Rangers to work as a starter and he’s had some not so great results. His control has been excellent and he’s struck out enough batters, but he’s been surprisingly hittable with nearly 10 hits allowed per nine innings. He’s also, maybe unsurprisingly, getting knocked out of games early. He’s topped 100 pitches just once and has allowed nine runs on 14 hits in his last 8.1 innings, though he does have 14 strikeouts in that time. He’s actually gotten quite a few of his strikeouts with his 92-94 MPH fastball, but opponents have hit .364 with a  .701 SLG off it, so it’s a give and take for him with that one. He’s also been dominant against the few lefties he’s faced (.200/.200/.360) while righties have raked him (.291/.353/.552), which means Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez might have to shoulder the load in this one.

A quick glance at the numbers above and you wouldn’t think Skoglund is having a good year. And he is. But it’s still exceeding my expectations for him by a long shot. It’s hard to find too much surprise that a lineup like the one the Yankees roll out was able to get to him, but before that, he had a 3.86 ERA with 22 strikeouts and five walks in his previous 25.2 innings. The Rangers have some thump, but they aren’t anywhere near the Yankees stratosphere, so this is a good opportunity to bounce back. Four big lefties in the Rangers lineup have struggled with curves from lefties over the last few years. Choo is 3 for 22, Odor is 8 for 46, Gallo is 1 for 21 and Mazara is 8 for 39. Use it effectively and he can get the job done.

Saturday

The Royals have bungled a rebuild, won a title and are now entering another one since Colon made his big league debut 21 years ago. And here is, still going strong. After a bad year last year, we all thought it might be over, but Big Sexy has done a nice job for the Rangers this year. He’s doing his typical thing where he throws basically all two-seam fastballs and not very hard and just doesn’t walk anyone. This season, hits have been hard to come by, but home runs have not. Right-handed batters have hit 10 of them in 128 plate appearances. He’s just always around the plate, so it makes the home runs make some sense. At this point, he’s really a two-times through the order pitcher, allowing a .308/.339/.654 line when he sees a lineup a third time, so even if he’s on, he won’t be in too long at least. He’s 15-11 in his career against the Royals with a 5.04 ERA and got rocked in 1.2 innings last year, allowing six runs on six hits in his only start against them. Oh yeah, and Jon Jay home run alert. He has one against Colon in his career.

Kennedy is on a run of bad starts that’s seen his ERA spike to about where it ended last year, but some peripherals are still better than last year with more strikeouts and fewer walks. He’s just been so easy to hit with nearly 11 allowed per nine innings. He’s 0-2 with a 10.91 ERA in his last three starts, which isn’t helping matters, so hopefully this is the start that turns that around for him. The road has been a problem for him. He’s posted a 3.66 ERA at home in 32 innings, but a 7.84 ERA in 20.2 innings on the road. I don’t know if there’s anything to that other than noise (probably not), but it’s interesting. He also has yet to throw a pitch in the seventh inning this year. That’ll need to change at some point.

Sunday

The Rangers ace is the subject of trade rumors, and with good reason. He’s put together a really solid year with a ton of strikeouts and has limited hits really well. His home runs are a little bit up, but that’ll happen as the stuff starts to decline. After a dip last season, Hamels is getting about 33 percent more whiffs than last season, which has helped his strikeout numbers spike again this season, even in his mid-30s. He uses his cutter more than anything and mixes in a still very good changeup, four-seam fastball and sinker. Both fastballs sit around 91-92. He also throws a curve that has been outstanding this season. He’s 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five career starts against the Royals and dominated them last year, going 1-0 with a 0.57 ERA in two starts and allowing just seven hits in 15.2 innings. The strikeout numbers make it obvious, but he’s done a really great job of putting hitters away this season, allowing just a .130 average and .221 SLG when he’s been ahead in the count. It’s not a ton better when he’s behind, but it’s better, so, well, don’t fall behind.

Hammel is coming off his best start in a month, shutting down the Cardinals pretty well over seven innings. While he still allowed nine hits, there were some encouraging developments, including a 14.6 percent swing and miss rate with 13 whiffs after coaxing just eight in his last two starts combined. That, to me, has been the biggest issue with him this season. If you’re not getting any swings and misses, you’re in trouble. In my ongoing curiosity of his third time through the order struggles, I’ll note, he’s still been okay, allowing a .754 OPS the third time through, which is actually better than what he’s done overall. He’s 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA in eight appearances against the Rangers, including two rough ones last year, giving up six runs in just 8.2 innings over two starts.

Two bad teams doing battle with nothing on the line can make for some either fascinating baseball or boring baseball. With that in mind, I’ll give you a boring prediction and say the two teams split.