Kansas City » Billy Hamilton

Friday Notes

David Lesky — Fri, 14 Dec 2018 13:00:18 +0000

I bet you thought you wouldn’t get your regular dose of Friday Notes, huh? Well you’re wrong. With BP Kansas City still up and running for at least a couple more weeks (we’re actually done at the end of the month), I’m going to make like the orchestra on the Titanic and continue to write Notes because I’ve done it literally every Friday since July of 2011. You can find my work on the main Baseball Prospectus site now and at the end of the year, but if anyone wants some serious series previews and Friday Notes every week, I’m your man and I’m open for business. Kind of weird to say that here, but what can you do? And hey, there’s some Royals news to talk about! So let’s get to that and save the goodbyes for another day.

I wrote about the Billy Hamilton signing for the main site, but I wanted to bring some of my reasoning for disliking the trade here that includes a couple additional things I hadn’t even thought of until Clint Scoles brought them up the other day. From a pure dollars per win standpoint, Hamilton for $5.25 million is an absolute steal. With the value of a win nearing $10 million, he doesn’t have a big hill to climb to get to where he needs to be to be worth the money, but there’s an opportunity cost here that I believe makes this deal not worth the money or the roster spot. I mentioned some of this last week, so forgive me for repeating myself, but the Royals have plenty of outfielders already and they even have one who plays outstanding defense. And with all the lefty outfielders they currently have projected to at least fight for starting time, it’d be nice to have one who could hit lefties and Hamilton is worse against lefties than righties. This also theoretically limits the flexibility of Whit Merrifield, which isn’t a huge deal in itself, but could slow the Royals down in promoting Nicky Lopez. Again, it’s not a huge deal or anything, but if you want to know who Hamilton is likely blocking, there’s another answer in addition to Brett Phillips. It isn’t that both those guys couldn’t use more time in AAA or that Phillips couldn’t play right field and Lopez couldn’t play third base, but then you’re missing out on the opportunity to give Jorge Bonifacio and Hunter Dozier the requisite plate appearances to get to the magical 1,500 number that Dayton Moore preached so loudly with guys like Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. It’s a one-year deal, so it’s really not a big deal, but as much fun as Hamilton’s defense and stolen bases will be, I think it was a poor use of limited remaining funds.
The Royals doubled down on their 2017 Rule 5 draft strategy and walked away with two pitchers, drafting Sam McWilliams from the Rays second overall and trading for Chris Ellis who was selected by the Rangers. Both are interesting picks. In McWilliams, I see a vaguely similar results profile to last year’s breakout, Brad Keller. Not that they’re the same pitcher, but McWilliams also reached Double-A in the season before the draft and had middling at best results. He was very good in high-A for the Diamondbacks in five starts, so that’s something to build on. He’s a tall righty with a decent fastball and solid slider, according to J.J. Cooper at Baseball America. He strikes out a fair amount of hitters and limits walks reasonably well, so that’s something that’d be nice to continue in the big leagues. Ellis reached Triple-A last year for the second time and had decent success, throwing 79 innings over 16 outings (14 starts) with solid control and enough strikeouts to be dangerous. His Triple-A debut in 2017 was pretty much a disaster, but he’ll be 26 in 2018 and seems like a decent bet to stick in middle relief for the big club, at least for awhile. As we’ve all learned from the Rule 5 draft, we just can’t know what he’s going to be. This time last year, I was super excited about Burch Smith and had very little interest in Brad Keller and we all saw how that worked out.
I know that Ned Yost said he wasn’t going to talk about the lineup, but that doesn’t stop us from doing it. With the addition of Hamilton, I think the lineup is in pretty good shape as far as us having an idea what it will be. I imagine they’ll at least stick with the top three from the end of the season after Alex Gordon hit .275/.359/.425 over his final 21 games hitting there. So a top three of Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi and Gordon seems likely to be followed by Salvador Perez and his .204 ISO. This is where it gets a little murky, but if I had to guess, I’d say Ryan O’Hearn gets first crack to hit fifth and will be followed by Jorge “if healthy” Soler. I could see Soler and O’Hearn flipped with the seven-eight spots being some combination of Jorge Bonifacio, Brett Phillips, Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier, whoever wins the right field and third base jobs. And at the end of the lineup will be Hamilton. One thing I noted in my BP write-up of the Hamilton deal is that there have been just seven teams in modern history to have three or more players steal 40 or more bases. The most recent was the 1988 Cardinals. These Royals could easily be the eighth if everyone stays healthy and hits enough to stay in the lineup. So if nothing else, that’s pretty cool.
Speaking of third base, I don’t think the Royals will bring in any competition to their current group, especially with the signing of Owings, but it is a position where I could see it. They signed Cuthbert for the $800,000, but I think I mentioned before that if they cut him early enough, they only owe him about $133,000 and if they cut him in spring, they’d owe him $200,000, so they could move on. And Dozier does have options. I mentioned some non-tenders who they could look at either last week or the week before, but could they maybe look toward signing a veteran like they did last year with Mike Moustakas? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s certainly possible. A Moose reunion would actually make some sense here, but it’s not just him. Yangervis Solarte is a player with some versatility who can play third, though he isn’t especially good. Josh Harrison is another and so is Tim Beckham. What’s appealing about Beckham would be his ability to play shortstop as well since Owings isn’t what you’d call good there. Again, I doubt it happens with that Owings already on board, but it’s something to watch for if one of these veterans gets to March in the same way Moustakas did last season.

Friday Notes

David Lesky — Fri, 07 Dec 2018 13:00:55 +0000

Allow yourself to dream a little with me to a time at this time next week when the Winter Meetings are over and we have all sorts of moves around baseball to talk about and maybe a Rule 5 pick or two to be way too hasty to judge for the Royals. It’s a better time. Though there is action this offseason, so at least there’s that. A big tip of the cap to Jerry Dipoto for most of that, but a nod in the direction of the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Nationals as well and for the National League East dogfight in 2019. It’s still at least another year (and probably more) before we can worry about the Royals in any sort of division fight, so we’ll have to live vicariously through both East divisions.

You may have noticed that we didn’t post anything on Wednesday or yesterday surrounding the Royals signing Chris Owings to a $3 million deal with $500k in incentives. If you were wondering why, at least from my end, it’s because I was confused. And I still am. There was a time that Owings was highly regarded and he’s still just 27 years old. But he’s also six years into a big league career where he’s hit .250/.291/.378 playing half his games at what was a hitter’s paradise before the 2018 season. And the role he’s presumably in for is to be a utility infielder, which includes backing up the shortstop position. Sounds fine, I suppose, but Owings didn’t play shortstop at all in 2018. Why? Well, the metrics say he isn’t especially good there. I haven’t seen a ton of him, so maybe the metrics are missing something in him, but my concern is that if you bring in a guy who can’t hit, he better be very good defensively and Owings just isn’t. Now, it could be that this is just the first move in a series of moves, but I doubt that. If that’s the case, I’ll call off the dogs. And beyond the actual player, why give him $3 million? Who are you competing with for Owings and why aren’t you just letting them have him? There are plenty of shortstop options out there who can probably be had for less than that. Look, there are worse things than signing a utility guy for a relatively small amount, but this to me seems like a poor use of limited funds and limited roster space. And to make it all worse, the Twins signed Ronald Torreyes, who is a better defender and probably a better hitter (or at least has a higher floor) to a minor league deal worth $800k. Come on, Dayton.
In Ken Rosenthal’s latest at The Athletic (okay, probably not even his latest at this point), he talks about the Angels decision to non-tender Blake Parker and that the Royals (among many others) had reached out to him already. When I saw he was cut loose, the Royals were my first thought for him and a great opportunity for both sides. No, he’s not a part of the next good Royals team or anything and teams are smart enough to look past save totals, but a team that figures to be in a lot of close games would be a good team to sign with when trying to build some value. And he could be a nice trade chip mid-season if a team is looking for relievers as the 2019/2020 free agent relief market isn’t nearly as strong as this year’s, which leads to a weaker trade market as well. 2019 will be Parker’s age-34 season, which would probably surprise some, but he’s still pretty good with more than a strikeout per inning and good control. He got hit a little too hard with the home run ball, but he’d be a nice fit in a bullpen trying to be rebuilt. I know Ned Yost said that he’d be willing to be creative with his bullpen, but these roles have a way of working themselves out and I think Wily Peralta is a ticking timebomb. And I’ll say this again after I mentioned it last year. Some may think it’s not worth having a closer on a bad team, but I disagree. It’s not worth paying big money for one or keeping one who could have big trade value, but there’s value to being able to close down a close game for young players developing, so I’d definitely give Parker a shot and even give him two years if that’s what brings him in.
Another non-tendered player seems to be mentioned quite a bit with the Royals and that’s Billy Hamilton. Look, I get it. The Royals love speed and they love defense and Hamilton is fast as all get out and can really go get it in center field. So it makes sense. And I’ll even go as far as to say that I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if the Royals picked him up just because of all that I mentioned before. But I really don’t see a purpose for it nor do I see why people actually seem to be in favor of it. I said before that Owings can’t hit, but Hamilton really really can’t hit. He’s a .245/.298/.333 career hitter and that’s playing half his games in a hitter’s haven. He strikes out too much and even though he actually walks a decent amount, it’s just not enough. He’s better defensively than Brian Goodwin and a bigger stolen base threat than Brett Phillips, but he also doesn’t hit lefties well, which would be the reason I could see to bring him in since Goodwin and Phillips are both lefties. I will say that the bigger dimensions at Kauffman Stadium could actually benefit him because of the type of hitter he is, but I doubt it would do enough for him. I just don’t see a reason for it personally and I hope they steer clear of the flash of his speed and defense. I do think Phillips probably finds himself in Omaha to start the 2019 season because of inventory, but I don’t think that needs to open up a spot for another outfielder, especially with Whit Merrifield and now Owings in the fold.
The Rule 5 draft is coming up on Thursday at the end of the meetings, so I’ll give my thoughts on what the Royals could do here. I’ve mentioned Drew Jackson in the past as a guy they could look to as someone who could back up at shortstop and around the infield, but the Owings deal makes me think that won’t happen. The same is true for Richie Martin, who was a first round pick of the A’s just a few years ago and finally started to hit this past season in AA, but I’m not sure the spot for him is there. Art Warren from the Mariners could be fun with a fastball in the mid-90s that can get up to 98 and a filthy slider. He’s an injury risk and walked a ton of hitters last season in AA, but he could be a steal. Riley Ferrell from the Astros would be a big-time risk/reward proposition as well. Like Warren, walks are an issue and maybe the Royals already have this profile enough with guys like Josh Staumont, but if they can figure out his control issues, they could have a potential relief star. Of course, if the Astros can’t do it, can the Royals? Andrew Sopko from the Dodgers could be interesting. He gave up more hits than innings pitched last season, but also struck out more than a batter per inning. He’s not a star, but could be a number five guy or a middle relief arm. And one more (there are plenty, but I’ll stop here) is Emmanuel Ramirez who has a very good changeup and a very good curve but not a great fastball. Maybe it doesn’t work in the big leagues, but he’s had enough success that I’d give it a shot on a rebuilding team in a big park. I guess we’ll see in a few days what they do here.