Kansas City » Brett Phillips http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Fri, 11 Oct 2019 17:55:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 Friday Notes http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/19/friday-notes-october-19-2018/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/19/friday-notes-october-19-2018/#comments Fri, 19 Oct 2018 12:00:50 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=42112 If you took my postseason predictions that I posted on Twitter and went to place bets, I sincerely hope you chose to completely ignore me and do the opposite. Otherwise, please don’t charge me for your losses because I’ve pretty much whiffed the playoffs. Which, of course, leads me back to the Royals and just how improbable their two-year playoff success was. It’s just tough to keep on winning, but they absolutely did. Future Royals teams may be better than the 2014/2015 clubs, but it would surprise me if they had the same success in just steamrolling through the postseason. Every year we get away from that and see the volatility in the postseason, I look back on those two years with fonder and fonder memories.

  • Clint has written a couple really interesting pieces looking at the 2009 system vs. the 2019 system and the comparisons (pitchers here and hitters here). One thing that stands out to me is that I do believe there is additional depth in the system at the expense of star power right now as compared to a decade ago. But given the changes the organization has made in those 10 years, I’d actually bet on the depth coming through and maybe putting a more sustained winner on the field than what we saw from that last group that came from the best farm system anyone had ever seen to that point. You certainly can’t argue with a world championship and two AL pennants, but I think an argument can be made (and I’ve made it) that they still underachieved individually. Eric Hosmer never became a star. Neither did Mike Moustakas. They didn’t get an ace out of the system, though with the tragic passing of Yordano Ventura, maybe that was taken away too soon. I believe that their development is so different today than it was 10 years ago that they have an opportunity to turn their additional depth into more winning. Maybe they don’t have the marquee prospect right now, but they should after the June draft and likely should get another one in the 2020 draft with a relatively high pick. We’ve already seen the system working much better in churning out guys like Jakob Junis and Whit Merrifield. Maybe I’m wrong and nothing will be different, but they just do such a better job today in development than a decade ago that I’d actually bet on the depth maybe even putting up better numbers than the star prospects they once had. The biggest thing for me is the pitching development has gone from archaic to much more open-minded, and I will all but guarantee they’ll be rewarded for that in the near future.
  • It seems like a lot of people are down on Brett Phillips. And I get it to some extent because he was underwhelming offensively after coming over in the July trade. That might be an understatement. He hit .188/.252/.313 and struck out an astonishing 50 times in 123 plate appearances. So yeah, it was bad. But I find it odd that some of what I’ve seen has people so sure that he can’t hit. He hit .279/.360/.475 in the minors in 2,760 plate appearances. He hit .276/.351/.448 in 98 plate appearances in the big leagues in 2017. He had a 10.5 percent minor league walk rate and is at 8.2 percent in his limited big league action. He swings and misses way too much, and that will be a problem, but I just think it’s pretty silly to write him off. He wasn’t exactly hitting well before he hurt his shoulder, but he went 3 for 23 with no extra base hits and 10 strikeouts after he came back and admitted he wasn’t playing at 100 percent. I honestly don’t know why they insisted on playing him when they had plenty of other outfield options available. I think all that last three weeks did was hurt the perception of him among fans and put him in a position to fail. I’m not saying Phillips is a surefire star or anything, but we have to remember the Royals picked him up in exchange for two months of a guy who had to wait until March to sign because there was so little demand for him. I still like him and if he can be a .240/.300/.410 hitter even, there’s a place for him in the big leagues. I get maybe being a little disappointed in his start with the Royals, but to write him off now seems pretty silly to me.
  • As the Royals look to build back up to a World Series contender, one thing they’ve mentioned quite a bit is speed and defense, which I believe will be a hallmark of every good Royals team ever. They’ve got some work to do on the defense side. I did mention a few weeks ago that the outfield could be near elite next season with the right pieces in the right spots, but looking at Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), there’s definitely room for growth. Mike Moustakas was the team’s best defender by that metric with Jon Jay third best and Lucas Duda amazingly eighth best. The positive is that Phllips was worth 4.6 runs while Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi (in half a season) and Ryan O’Hearn all rated positively. I’m a little surprised on O’Hearn as he looked stiff and indecisive at first base, but the metrics say otherwise. Alcides Escobar ranked near the bottom for the team, so him hopefully going elsewhere will help, but the big concern for me is Hunter Dozier. He was worth -13.3 runs last season between mostly first and third. You can’t be that rough defensively and hit .229/.278/.395. And even with the optimism over his last couple months, he still hit just .256/.293/.467 in his final 48 games. Dozier is in a big time important season in 2019 for him if he wants to have a big league career, with the Royals or elsewhere. He did look smoother at third as the season went on, but defense is very important to the Royals and their infield defense appears to be more important than ever before as they began getting more and more groundballs from their pitching staff. He’s in the crosshairs this year.
  • And finally, just something a little quirky to look at. I wanted to see the Royals record by run differential to see if they had a winning record at any run differential this season. If you predicted they did not, you are correct. They were 1-1 when the difference was 10. You might recall they beat the Mariners in April by a 10-0 score back when they could only win when they threw a shutout. But, alas, the Blue Jays beat them 15-5, so there went that. The next closest they came to a winning record was going 11-14 when the margin of victory was two runs. So yeah. Just another way to look back at the 2018 club and realize just how bad they were.
]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/19/friday-notes-october-19-2018/feed/ 1 Free Your Mind http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/29/free-your-mind/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/29/free-your-mind/#comments Wed, 29 Aug 2018 15:00:30 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37928 A great many times this season, I’ve sat down to try to come up with an angle about the Kansas City Royals that might be considered fun or interesting or anything other than an attempt at click-baiting my way to a semi-interesting take that even I only half-believed in.

Occasionally, I’ve been able to grit my teeth and do so, because I’m a professional and sometimes you just get dem clicks and move on about your business. I assume writing for a website is a business, and I say that because David and Craig are the people in charge of pushing us all in the right direction and I’m the one who notices the weird or subversive and makes a fart noise at it. We know our roles here.

But this team isn’t interesting.

A few of the old-heads maintain some level of interest—Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez can, and occasionally do, show off the flashes that make them Royals Hall of Famers and provide a link to the franchise’s halcyon days. More metaphorical ink has been spilled about the late-stage breakout of Whit Merrifield than any other subject, and bully for him. Alcides Escobar is interesting, but only if you need a metaphor for money actually being set on fire. People still talk about Burch Smith and Brian Flynn in terms of potential, which is just adorable.

Every single one of those players will be at least 29 years old by mid-May next year.

Jakob Junis and Rosell Herrera will be 26 before the calendar year ends. Heath Fillmyer and Ryan O’Hearn may get ample playing time over the next few seasons, but if so that really just means that the Royals are losing 100 games a year. Jorge Bonifacio offers promise, but he’s been bad enough since his return from PED suspension to at least entertain the idea that his offensive ceiling is not quite what it once was.

I find Brett Phillips super-interesting and also, I find him to have holes in his swing you could drive a Hyundai through. He may not be able to hit, a bit of a problem for a professional baseball player. He’ll get many opportunities to prove it, one way or another.

chart(1)

chart(2)

Jorge Lopez has 45.1 career innings, a diverse array of pitches, a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s a couple of borderline calls away from being essentially 1:1. As upside goes, he’s one of four Royals with any at all.

Brad Keller and Adalberto Mondesi have been legitimate revelations this year, Keller because he was a Rule 5 guy and therefore a theoretical quandary and ‘BERTO because he finally put his considerable tools together to become more than the answer to a trivia question. They may be the only two young up-and-comers on the roster to feel confident in.

For a franchise that keeps making noise about fielding a competitive team next year (lol), having four players with upside is not what you’d consider progress. Add in Perez, Junis, Jorge Soler (who is somehow only 26 even though it seems like he broke into the league with Kerry Wood), Danny Duffy and [squints hard] hell, why not, Jorge Bonifacio and that’s three starting pitchers, whatever they end up doing with Lopez and two-thirds of a starting lineup toward relevance! Throw in in Nicky Lopez, Josh Staumont and Richard Lovelady and… chances are they’ll lose 95 games again next year.

In a way, I blame Merrifield for all of this. His breakout 2017 campaign at a relatively advanced age was an outlier. It’s not something you can bank on other players replicating. Please don’t point out how relatively unheralded players CAN become borderline All-Stars without prior warning; while true, you look like an idiot. Dingusy fail-sons CAN become the President of the United States; doesn’t mean they all will.

(What? That’s not a statement about our current political climate. I’m talking about John Quincy Adams.)

Even if you factor in that peak years have been slowly climbing across baseball (this study explored peak aging, and here’s a BP study that looks at the fallacy of the age-27 peak), what isn’t being factored into the Merrifield discussion is that he made a gigantic leap from the fringe to the top of the order. Could O’Hearn do that? Hunter Dozier? Herrera? Sure. Maybe. Wouldn’t bet my life on it. Gun to my head, I’d gamble that guys on the other side of 25 should get marginally better, but a Whit-like leap is not something to expect. Junis and Lopez should see some level of improvement, even if I wouldn’t count on a big jump. The late-20 year olds populating the bullpen are who they are.

And so I close with a plea: stop. Stop expecting them all to be Whit. Accept that some of these guys are just guys, destined to occupy a roster spot until the Royals harvest an always-improving farm system in 2020, 2021 and beyond. By 2021, one hopes that Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar will have shoved someone like Junis way down, or perhaps even out, of the rotation. One hopes that by then, Khalil Lee and Seuly Matias will have stolen at-bats from the Jorges, or Phillips if he never figures out big-league pitching. If O’Hearn or Dozier are still stealing at-bats from Pratto by 2021, either something horrid has happened or I’m gonna be pretty mad.

There is plenty to be excited for when it comes to the Royals future. But that doesn’t mean that you have to go around pretending their present is anything other than bleak. You’ve got eyes; call a spade a spade and acknowledge that what you see day-in, day-out is bad and boring at best. It’ll free your mind and, to quote En Vogue, the rest will follow.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/29/free-your-mind/feed/ 1 10 Things That Have Gone Right For The Royals in 2018 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/27/10-things-that-have-gone-right-for-the-royals-in-2018/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/27/10-things-that-have-gone-right-for-the-royals-in-2018/#comments Mon, 27 Aug 2018 12:00:01 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37728 The 2018 Royals are a train wreck. Or perhaps, a dumpster fire occurring on top of a train wreck. This is no secret. But let’s ignore all the many, many negative things that have happened this year and focus on some positives. Yes, there are some. I promise.

In no particular order, here are 10 good things that have happened to the Royals in 2018:

1. The one-year contracts worked just like they should (mostly). Jon Jay and Mike Moustakas were signed in the early spring for two reasons: provide some reasonably good baseball ability, then get traded for prospects. They held up their end of the bargain (Moose’s WARP as a Royal this year: 2.6, Jay’s: 1.0), and the Royals acquired Elvis Luciano and Gabe Speier for Jay and Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips for Moustakas. The latter two are in the majors already (and Phillips, thanks to his defense, appears to be at least a useful piece—if he hits, he could be very good). The former two are lottery tickets, probably, but that’s OK since it was highly unlikely Kansas City would receive a top prospect for four months of Jon Jay. For purposes of this point, we’ll ignore that other one-year contracts for Alcides Escobar and Lucas Duda are still on the books. Hey, there’s still a few days to trade those guys!

2. Speaking of trades, the Royals seemed to deal Kelvin Herrera at just the right time. And they got Kelvin Gutierrez, Blake Perkins, and Yohanse Morel for him. Herrera went on the disabled list after posting a 4.50 ERA for the Nationals, just returned to the active roster, and got hurt again Sunday. Meanwhile, Gutierrez has hit .281/.338/.419 for Northwest Arkansas and could be manning third base in Kansas City in the near future. Perkins has a .243/.369/.311 line in Wilmington, but more exciting is that he is, by accounts I’ve seen, playing good defense in center field and is also walking a lot: 46 BBs in 250 plate appearances. And Morel? Well…he’s got an interesting name. He’s also pitched 11 games at the Rookie ball level, so who knows?

3. The Royals didn’t just make trades to supplement the future. They also traded with Cincinnati to get Rule 5 selection Brad Keller and went to the waiver wire to add Rosell Herrera. Keller is just 22 and has shown some promise as a starter (3.69 ERA in 15 starts, covering 83 innings). I don’t think he’s a future ace, but he seems to have a role somewhere on a big league staff. Herrera had a decent start to his Royals career but has slumped recently. Still, he has speed and could be a useful utility player/depth piece. That’s OK, because this year should be all about finding talent in unexpected places and then seeing if it can play in the majors.

4. Whit Merrifield has proven his 2017 season was no fluke, hitting .307/.374/.441 so far this season. That’s nice because it’s always good to have at least one player worth watching in the present, and because he could be a very nice trade chip this winter, should the Royals choose to go that direction. I would hate to see him go, but he turns 30 next January, meaning he is unlikely to be this good when the Royals are ready to contend (even the best-case scenario probably puts this in 2021). And he’s still not arbitration-eligible, meaning he is a good, cheap player. His age means he won’t fetch a top-notch prospect probably, but he could still bring back some valuable younger talent.

5. Adalberto Mondesi looks like a pretty good player. Yes, the four(!) walks in 160 plate appearances is a concern, but the four home runs and 17 stolen bases (with three caught stealing), along with the flashy defense, look promising. The Royals could and should be playing him more often, but the early returns are good.

6. The Royals had lots of draft picks this year: four in the first round, six in the top 100, nine in the top 200. That’s a good way to revitalize a farm system in a hurry. And they are almost certainly going to have the first or second overall pick next year. A couple of this year’s early picks, pitcher Daniel Lynch and center fielder Kyle Isbel, are off to good starts, too—Lynch is 5-0 with a 1.46 ERA at Class A Lexington, and Isbel has a 1.063 OPS for Idaho Falls at the Rookie level. The emphasis the Royals placed on college players in this draft means we should be seeing some of these guys in the majors in two or three years.

Um, let’s see…wow, I just had to decide to find 10 good things, not six, didn’t I? Hmm…ok, here’s one.

7. Players already in the system have had some breakout years. Seuly Matias belted 31 homers for Lexington before suffering a season-ending finger injury over the weekend; he’s still only 19 (he turns 20 on September 4). Khalil Lee got everyone’s attention with an .808 OPS at pitcher-friendly Wilmington in High-A ball. He struggled a bit after a promotion to Northwest Arkansas but had an .842 OPS in the last couple of weeks before he went on the disabled list on August 3. MJ Melendez (.807 OPS at Lexington, and he’s also 19) and Nicky Lopez (.819 OPS at Omaha) have also had nice years. One season after being demoted from Omaha to Northwest Arkansas, Ryan O’Hearn made it to the majors and has already launched six home runs in 69 plate appearances. And his co-first baseman at Omaha, Frank Schwndel, has hit .285/.337/.507 this year. He should be in the big leagues soon.

Uhhh…

8. No one died in the Great Kauffman Stadium Flood of 2018.

9. The Royals got one year closer to having massive contracts for Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy off the books. Gordon only has one more year on his deal, which is worth $20 million annually (plus a mutual option, which at this point I would hope would not even be a consideration for the front office). Kennedy now has two years left at $16.5 million per year. And hey, Gordon has actually been not terrible this year. Not good, mind you (.239/.320/.349), but not as bad as he was in 2017.

And finally…

10. They probably won’t have a worse record than the 1962 Mets, the standard for futility in the modern era with a 40-120 record. Just three more wins to insure they don’t reach 120 losses. I feel fairly confident they can do it.

Phew! Made it!

Please understand, none of this excuses the results this season. I do believe this team has underachieved. Not that they should have been contenders, but they shouldn’t be losing 115 games, either. I think most people and projection systems had them between 90-100 losses, meaning this is on pace to be a 15-20 game underachievement. On the whole, this year is unacceptable. But just because it’s unacceptable doesn’t mean everything is awful.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/27/10-things-that-have-gone-right-for-the-royals-in-2018/feed/ 2 Introducing Your 2021 Kansas City Royals http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/21/introducing-your-2021-kansas-city-royals/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/21/introducing-your-2021-kansas-city-royals/#comments Tue, 21 Aug 2018 13:57:24 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37211 Hey why not? The season is boring and 2021 seems to be what the front office is pushing for, so let’s have a little fun and see who could be on that roster when the team expects to be contending for division titles again. That’s an interesting year because the White Sox should theoretically be really going by then with all their top prospects while the Indians seem destined to be down a bit after losing so much in free agency. The Twins are the Twins, so who knows? And the Tigers? Well, they’ll also be there.

CATCHERS

Salvador Perez ($13 million) – He’s still going to start, and maybe he won’t play every single day, but he’ll get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate.
Predicted Line: .231/.277/.382

Meibrys Viloria ($575,000) – He’s keeping this seat warm for M.J. Melendez in 2022, but he does a nice job as a backup catcher. He’s not much of a hitter, but he’s fantastic behind the plate and has a really good arm.
Predicted Line: .229/.286/.341

INFIELD

Kelvin Gutierrez ($575,000) – I’m not sure why, but I believe in Gutierrez and think he actually becomes a really solid third baseman for this club for a few years, a la Joe Randa. He’s sure-handed and has some quality bat control. The power seems to be coming a bit.
Predicted Line: .291/.343/.446

Nicky Lopez ($800,000) – Probably the best batsman in the organization, Lopez has a chance to be the team’s second baseman for a long time. He can handle shortstop, but a double play combo with Lopez’s steady hand at second is a nice thing to think about.
Predicted Line: .312/.366/.427

Adalberto Mondesi ($1,400,000) – I don’t think he’ll be a star, but he’ll be a step or two below. He makes all the spectacular plays, boots some of the easy ones and steals a ton of bases. The power potential is always intriguing. The low OBP is always infuriating.
Predicted Line: .277/.304/.465

Frank Schwindel ($575,000) – Frank the Tank has taken awhile to get his shot, but continuously hitting in Omaha will get him the opportunity to crush lefties at the big league level and platoon with a free agent bat for a bit. I think it’ll work out pretty well for him too.
Predicted Line: .273/.316/.497

Eric Thames ($7,000,000) – The Royals will believe Nick Pratto needs one more year before he’s ready to be a big-time contributor. Of course things can change, but in the interim, they need a bat to play first and Thames represents a bit of a shift in philosophy for the big club.
Predicted Line: .233/.321/.512

OUTFIELD

Aaron Hicks ($14,000,000) – Coming off some solid seasons in New York, the Royals want to find a veteran to patrol center field who won’t require a huge, long commitment, so prior to the 2020 season, they’re going out and picking up Hicks on a three-year deal. Yes, they probably overspent, but it gives them a switch hitter who can handle center or right quite well, depending on the needs of that night. It might seem odd now given all the outfielders in the big leagues or on the way, but on a deal that expires after 2022, it made some sense as a bridge.
Predicted Line: .256/.354/.439

Khalil Lee ($575,000) – Lee will get a shot at a September callup in 2019 and will spend about half the year in the big leagues in 2020. I’m looking toward a strong finish in 2020 to make him ready to play mostly left field in the outfield with the best throwing arms in baseball. As one of five center fielders on the roster, the outfield defense will be stacked and the potential for greatness is way up there.
Predicted Line: .267/.371/.442

Blake Perkins ($575,000) – Another switch hitter who can really go get it, Perkins will get to play sort of the role of Jarrod Dyson in that he’ll probably get into about 110-120 games with a lot as a pinch runner. There won’t be much need for a defensive replacement, but Hicks tends to need some time off here and there, so Perkins can slide in easily in center and can draw a ton of walks when he plays.
Predicted Line: .223/.314/.351

Brett Phillips ($1,300,000) – Still straddling between a piece of the future and a bridge to that future, Phillips will likely get most of 2021 to show that he’s an important cog in the Royals machine. He strikes out too much and the power just isn’t quite where you want it for a guy who is now spending most of his time in a corner, but he’s a solid player who provides a ton of value as a defender at the very least.
Predicted Line: .253/.321/.417

UTILITY

Kyle Isbel ($575,000) – A scorching hot start after he was drafted made it seem like Isbel was on the fast track to the big leagues, but he’s slowed down slightly in Lexington, though not that much. Isbel profiles right now as a fringe-ish starter, but given his ability to handle some infield work, he has a spot on teams with dwindling position player rosters. He can work a walk and has a little pop and good bat to ball skills. If someone goes down, you can do far worse than Isbel filling in.
Predicted Line: .271/.329/.417

STARTING PITCHERS

Danny Duffy ($15,500,000) – This is the last year of Duffy’s deal, and I believe he’ll play the whole thing out with the Royals before moving on. Still effective, but injuries don’t figure to get fewer and farther between as he gets older.
Predicted Line: 7-6, 4.12 ERA, 123.2 IP, 111 H, 102 K, 51 BB, 19 HR

Daniel Lynch ($575,000) – Lynch was not one of my favorite draft picks, but he hit the ground running and has no intentions of looking back. He’ll get a September callup in 2020, a bit like Yordano Ventura in 2013 and then basically force his way into the 2021 rotation with a strong spring. He’s young, so there’ll be hiccups along the way, but he’s a nice addition.
Predicted Line: 12-5, 3.69 ERA, 145.2 IP, 131 H, 139 K, 45 BB, 20 HR

Brady Singer ($575,000) – Singer will get his first shot in 2020 and will show inconsistent results but flashes of potential during his debut and will earn a spot in the big league rotation out of spring training. It’s not all daisies and rainbows though as he will struggle through a bit of an uneven year with way too many home runs allowed.
Predicted Line: 8-13, 5.11 ERA, 171.1 IP, 168 H, 153 K, 49 BB, 30 HR

Jameson Taillon ($7,300,000) – The Royals will see Taillon as their James Shields for the next wave and will do what they can to go get him, giving up quite a few prospects in a trade a lot of people who are a bit more analytically inclined hate because the Royals aren’t ready to win yet, but that a lot of people who are less analytically inclined love because they love getting a top notch big league pitcher.
Predicted Line: 16-6, 2.93 ERA, 212 IP, 181 H, 209 K, 43 BB, 17 HR

Julio Teheran ($17,000,000) – The Royals will count on a bigger park doing wonders for Teheran when he becomes a free agent after the 2019 season as a pitcher who can help headline a rotation with the young guns. For five years and $70 million, the contract will give some memories of the Ian Kennedy deal, but at least Teheran has better stuff.
Predicted Line: 12-12, 4.04 ERA, 201.1 IP, 199 H, 186 K, 63 BB, 28 HR

BULLPEN

Jason Adam ($1,200,000) – Things haven’t gone well for Adam in his big league debut. The home run ball has not been his friend, but it’s not all bad. He’s gotten a lot of strikeouts and done well enough in limiting hits. It’ll take some time, but he’s going to be a solid middle relief type and will be a key part of a very good bullpen in 2021.
Predicted Line: 66 G, 3.78 ERA, 73.1 IP, 58 H, 89 K, 31 BB, 11 HR

Cody Allen ($11,000,000) – The Royals will look to improve their bullpen immediately and they’ll likely be making a similar mistake to the Soria deal in giving Allen three years and $24 million with the 2021 season being the crescendo at $11 million. Still, he’s a Proven Closer™ and the Royals really want that to help fix this bullpen disaster even though he won’t be closing at the end of the deal.
Predicted Line: 53 G, 4.24 ERA, 53 IP, 45 IP, 57 K, 29 BB, 6 HR

Sean Doolittle ($15,500,000) – The Royals have liked Doolittle for awhile, so I imagine they’ll overlook his injuries this year and some in previous years to give him a big time overpay on a four-year deal worth $49 million. Great control, swings and misses and nearly unhittable relievers aren’t out there all that often, so they had to make a push for him, but knowing the payroll would be manageable at the end, they can backload it.
Predicted Line: 41 G, 3.19 ERA, 43.2 IP, 35 H, 49 K, 9 BB, 5 HR

Carlos Hernandez ($575,000) – Hernandez will get the opportunity in 2021 to make some spot starts and work as a long man out of the bullpen to get his feet wet. He’ll also spend some time in Omaha, but that’s okay.
Predicted Line: 39 G (12 GS), 4.53 ERA, 96.1 IP, 94 H, 87 K, 39 BB, 12 HR

Brad Keller ($1,900,000) – I know people will wonder why Keller is in the bullpen when he’s been so good as a rookie in the rotation, and that’s fair. I just think some of his issues as a starter will make it tough for him to stay there when there are better options, and he can be a really valuable member of a staff who can go multiple innings and can coax a double play grounder when needed. It’s not that he necessarily couldn’t fit as a starter, but on this team, the bullpen is his spot.
Predicted Line: 47 G, 3.11 ERA, 83.1 IP, 77 H, 58 K, 29 BB, 2 HR

Jackson Kowar ($575,000) – There’s a potential future in the rotation for Kowar, but I think the 2021 Royals will really enjoy his stuff coming out of the bullpen to get his feet wet and ending up pitching late in games quite a bit in 2021.
Predicted Line: 51 G, 2.37 ERA, 64 IP, 39 H, 78 K, 22 BB, 4 HR

Richard Lovelady ($750,000) – A duo of Doolittle and Lovelady from the left side is going to be pretty tough to beat in 2021. Lovelady will be in his third year and will be at his very best, taking the majority of save opportunities for this particular Royals club.
Predicted Line: 65 G, 1.29 ERA, 71.1 IP, 33 H, 91 K, 15 BB, 1 HR

Glenn Sparkman ($600,000) – I will always like Sparkman as a bullpen option and I think he and Adam can be a really solid middle relief duo. Plus, he can give you two or three innings when needed, so he’ll be a big part of a modern bullpen.
Predicted Line: 43 G, 3.21 ERA, 68.2 IP, 71 H, 65 K, 28 BB, 5 HR

The total payroll for this squad that looks much improved from what we’ve been watching this year checks in at $114 million, which isn’t all that bloated at all. They’ll be worth 34.8 WARP in general, which puts them as an 83 win team or so. If the bullpen overperforms, they might get an extra three or four wins out of it. All in all, not too shabby I guess. If this is the first step, it’s a good one. If this is a peak, it’s a problem.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/21/introducing-your-2021-kansas-city-royals/feed/ 7 RECAP: Nothing happened but we wrote about it anyway http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/20/recap-nothing-happened-but-we-wrote-about-it-anyway/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/20/recap-nothing-happened-but-we-wrote-about-it-anyway/#comments Tue, 21 Aug 2018 02:16:01 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37244 Jorge Lopez! The Rays Opener! It’s alleged Major League Baseball in central Florida, played in front of dozens!

I know Florida is where the elderly go to await death’s sweet embrace, but it seems like more of them could make it out to Tropicana Field on a semi-regular basis. When even the reported attendance numbers (average: 14,683) are less than half capacity, you’re not doing that well in the ol’ attendance category. A great deal of the 10,036 announced for Monday night appeared to be off getting a beer each time the camera panned the crowd. And look, I know that the Royals—or at least, THESE Royals—aren’t exactly a marquee matchup. But it’s still Major League Baseball.

These are also semi-sour grapes, since the Rays and their opener held off the Royals in a 1-0 barnburner to open a series down in the Trop.

Both teams threatened in the second, but only one capitalized. Spoiler: Wasn’t the team that got shutout for nine innings by the likes of Hunter Wood! The Royals put a man in scoring position with two outs after Lucas Duda led off with a single and Rosell Herrera followed with a single of his own three batters later. After Ryan Yarbrough replaced Opener Hunter Wood, hometown kid Brett Phillips was called out on strikes to end it for the Royals.

On the Rays end of the second, it was feast or famine for the Good Guys. Tommy Pham led off with a groundout; someone named Ji-Man Choi followed with a bunt single. Joey Wendle grounded into a force at second; Kevin Kiermaier singled him to third anyway.

The game turned on an umpire’s review. Willy Adames hit a tapper to Herrera at third, and he came up firing to Duda at first. Adames, initially called out on a bang-bang play, was ruled safe upon further review, scoring Choi.

Lopez was barely able to hold it together in the third inning, walking the bases loaded with Mallex Smith, Jake Bauers and Choi. Fortunately, he induced a Matt Duffy groundout and a Pham strikeout around that, and so Wendle’s groundout ended the inning without another run coming across.

Perez did two positive things in the fourth. First, he led off with a double, followed by a Duda walk, which went nowhere thanks to strikeouts by Jorge Bonifacio, Ryan O’Hearn and Herrera. In the bottom half of the inning, he negated a leadoff double by Kiermaier by showcasing the howitzer we take for granted as attached to his right arm.

The rest of the game passed without incident. The Royals had nothing for Yarbrough, who tossed 5.1 innings of two-hit, six-strikeout ball. Jake Newberry recorded his first career strikeout in the bigs, which was cool. Perez grounded into an inning-ending, rally-killing double play in the eighth after one-out singles by Whit Merrifield and Alex Gordon. Not the finest two days in Salvy’s career—a platinum sombrero yesterday and a squandering of (probably) the Royals best chance today. Always tomorrow.

Your Tweet of Despair

The Bright Spot: Three more quality relief innings for Kansas City relievers. It’s like I don’t even know you guys anymore!

The Nadir: Just a real murderers row of contenders here. Sorry to rain on Phillips’ parade, but he’s 0-for-his-last-9 and 3-for-23 since Aug. 11. Sorry buddy; at least you have lots of people who love you, if Rustin Dodd’s report is any indication.

The Next Step: Well after that crap fest, it’s only one of the best pitcher’s in the American League who is set to oppose the Royals tomorrow. Blake Snell is 14-5, has a 2.10 ERA, should’ve been an All-Star even without Corey Kluber declining to participate in the All-Star Game and has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Maybe one day we’ll say some of those same things about Glenn Sparkman too.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/20/recap-nothing-happened-but-we-wrote-about-it-anyway/feed/ 0 RECAP: We’ve fallen into a parallel universe where the Royals beat the Cubs http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/08/recap-weve-fallen-into-a-parallel-universe-where-the-royals-beat-the-cubs/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/08/recap-weve-fallen-into-a-parallel-universe-where-the-royals-beat-the-cubs/#comments Thu, 09 Aug 2018 03:21:00 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36198 Heath Fillmyer hasn’t been up long enough for me to not still be regularly calling him “Hunter Fillmyer” (who Hunter Fillmyer is has been the subject of great consternation for me; I know that name from somewhere, dang it!) but for seven innings his relative anonymity didn’t seem to matter.

The Cubs—World Series champions as recently as 2016, NL Central leaders, contenders for yet another National League crown—have an offense many would die for. Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber—the ninth and seventh hitters in Chicago’s lineup—would hit, I’m guessing, second and fourth for the Royals. The talent disparity is a chasm.

Yet here was Fillmyer, who was hoofing it around the Texas League as recently as last year (Whataburger Field in Corpus Christi sounds like heaven) straight-up dominating a prohibitive favorite. The shame is he’s doing it for the Royals and not a contender, but at the same time, nothing helps solidify your place in the 2019 rotation like stymieing a contender in 2018.

By the time he was finished, the Cubs had all of three hits. And the Royals—THESE Royals—were racking up runs at an alarming rate. To the tune of a 9-0 victory.

I’m as stunned as you are, believe me.

Anthony Rizzo led off the first inning with a comebacker single that caught Fillmyer on the leg. It must have really pissed the righty off, because the Cubs didn’t get another hit until the top of the seventh, when David Bote and Tommy La Stella had back-to-back singles. It wasn’t all smooth sailing after that; he only struck out three and needed some good defense behind him, including whatever happened on that fifth-inning play when Ian Happ grounded into a force out at second, only Mondesi’s throw to first missed by a little bit… and bounced right back to Lucas Duda at first, allowing him to easily throw at a startled Happ going for second.

You need a little luck against a really good team, I suppose.

It wasn’t a super-fast start for the Royals at the plate either. Aside from a bases-loaded situation in the second—which was aided by walks to Jorge Bonifacio and Brett Phillips after Hunter Dozier led off with a single and yielded two runs via Drew Butera double—the Royals had just three hits through six innings as Jose Quintana was just as good as Fillmyer for much of the night. I know that’s a weird sentence, just go with it.

That changed over the course of five pitches in the seventh. Bonifacio and Phillips whacked singles on the first pitch they saw, bringing up Adalberto Mondesi who thumped a long home run to make it 5-0.

Since you can never have too many runs against the Cubs, the Royals added four more in the eighth. Dozier led off with a four pitch walk, followed by a Duda single. Bonifacio doubled, scoring both and advancing to third after Russell… spiked the ball in the outfield? I don’t know what else you’d call his cut-off-and-aborted-relay-attempt error.

Anyway, Phillips tripled and there are few sights in my baseball-viewing life at this moment that are better than watching Brett Phillips at a full-on sprint like a biker gang is chasing him with Mac-10s and lead pipes. Bonfacio scored; two batters later, Phillips would do the same on a Drew Butera sac fly.

And sure, it was a 9-0 game but these are the Royals and those are the Cubs—closer Wily Peralta needed to make an appearance anyway. The 9-0 is Kansas City’s largest shutout win in a regular-season interleague game (h/t @RoyalsStats).

Your Unusually Happy Tweet of the Game

The Bright Spot: Did you not hear me say “9-0?” There’s your bright spot. Not a loss.

The Nadir: Spots one-through-three in the order combining to go 0-for-12 was a bad look.

The Next Step: Hail Mary, Blessed Off-Day. Then the Cardinals come to the K. Burch Smith vs. Austin Goober

[taps earpiece]

pardon me, Gomer

[taps earpiece with urgency]

apologies that’s Gomber will face off in the 7:15 p.m. (CT) series opener, Friday. If there is justice in this world, the Cardinals will lose every game.Either

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/08/recap-weve-fallen-into-a-parallel-universe-where-the-royals-beat-the-cubs/feed/ 0 RECAP: Two Jasons, One Blown Lead http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/02/recap-two-jasons-one-blown-lead/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/02/recap-two-jasons-one-blown-lead/#comments Thu, 02 Aug 2018 21:46:07 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35662 Cannons. This game featured lots of cannons. Brett Phillips. Salvador Perez. Brad Keller humming darts.

Leather. Also a considerable amount of leather, from Phillips and Adalberto Mondesi.

And there was plenty of was bad bullpen work by the Royals in a 6-3 loss in the finale on the South Side.

As one of the wickedly funny idiots in our Slack chat pointed out, this played out about how you’d expect a midweek, getaway day game between two teams going nowhere would play out; I assume he meant that in the nicest way possible, which is how I took it, and not like they all looked like they weren’t all that thrilled to be there—that’s the cynical way of looking at things, and I am not a cynic. But between the two teams, they scratched a whopping eight combined hits against starters Brad Keller and Reynaldo Lopez, who I assume were both on their A(++++++++)-game today.

In Keller’s case, I know that to be true; he struck out a career-high nine and scattered five hits in 6.1 innings before finally running out of gas. Aside from a 25-pitch fourth inning—which saw Chicago open the scoring with back-to-back-to-back two-out hits from Jose Abreu (double), Avisail Garcia (single) and Omar Narvaez (single), the last of which drove in Abreu to give the Pale Hose a lead.

He was aided by Old Salvy, Young Phillips and Young BERTO in the field. In the third, Perez fired a laser to get Nicky Delmonico on a steal attempt. BERTO kept Yolmer Sanchez off the bases with a nifty sliding play in short right in the fourth, while Phillips brought out the gun show in the fifth to nail Leury Garcia at the plate after a Tim Anderson sac fly—he put it on a dime too, Garcia had no chance. An inning later, Sanchez was robbed again when Phillips laid out to take away a hit in center.

Chicago tacked on some insurance thanks to a couple of Keller walks, to Narvaez and Leury Garcia, which ended his day and began the brief appearance of Tim Hill. He struck out Adam Engel on three pitches but he surrendered a run-scoring double to Anderson to put the Sox up 2-0.

With all of three hits to their collective name entering the eighth inning, the Royals seemed destined for another disappointing, sluggish loss. Instead, Alcides Escobar earned at least a dozen more starts with hi third extra base hit since June 23, leading off with a double off the wall in left and moving to third on a BERTO bunt.

Alex Gordon and Perez struck out, but that just set the stage for Lucas Duda pinch-hitter Whit Merrifield. Whitley launched a three-run homer to put the Royals up a run and give the faintest glimmer of hope that a sweep was a possibility.

But it was not to be, mon Cherie. A flurry of Jason’s handed the White Sox a four-run eighth to turn a one-run lead into a three-run deficit. Jason Adam, replacing Hill, gave up an Abreu homer (no shame there, his 17th), an Avisail Garcia double and intentionally walked Narvaez before being replaced by Jason Hammel.

Royals Killer Matt Davidson was next… but was replaced by Daniel Palka? Rick Renteria clearly knew what he was on about though, as Palka parked one over the fence in right center for a three-run jack to make it 6-3 White Sox.

Phillips (that man again) led off the ninth with a double before controversy ensued. Hunter Dozier lined out to Leury Garcia in left and Phillips appeared to tag and advance to third but was deemed to have left early by umpire I. C. Nothingwell. Replay reversed the call and Phillips had third, scoring on a sac fly by Rosell Herrera, who pinch-hit for Ryan O’Hearn.

Escobar made the last out on a ground out; probably would’ve been wise to pinch-hit for him too.

Your Tweet of Despair