Not that there was much drama to be had anyway. All three: Cheslor Cuthbert, Brian Flynn and Jesse Hahn were projected to make between $1 million and $1.7 million. Once the club decided to tender contracts, the differences at the open of negotiations were always going to be easy to overcome. 

As written in this space last week, the pitchers were obvious candidates for a contract, Cuthbert less so. By keeping the price below a million, the Royals leverage their meagre offseason war chest, so why not keep him around for another go? We already know what he brings to third base, but competition is healthy. At least that’s what I’m telling myself at this point of the winter.

By avoiding arbitration with their three remaining candidates, the Royals now have nine players under contract for the upcoming season at a total commitment of $72 million.

This is relevant because the Royals stated desire is for their Opening Day payroll to land somewhere in the $90 million neighborhood. That means they have around $18 million left in the kitty to divide among 16 players left to fill out the roster. Per the current CBA, we do know the major league minimum salary will be $555,000. 

Let’s just cut the crap and state the obvious: There are going to be a lot of minimum wage earners on next year’s team. 

Of course, that’s by design. It’s been written before and bears repeating that it just doesn’t make sense to throw good money at a bad baseball team. Yes, last year’s Royals team was all about bad baseball, never mind how you felt in September. There’s a decent chance they will improve, but really, it’s difficult to not have that good old dead cat bounce following a 104 loss season. 

Whit Merrifield played for $24,500 over the league minimum last year and bumping his WARP from 2.5 in his sophomore season to 4.3 last year, should get some sort of reward. But let’s not get carried away. It would be decent of the Royals to reward their best player, but there are plenty of internal pressures from within MLB to keep the gift-giving to a minimum in the short term. The system is the system is the system. Maybe he earns around $600,000 next season. 

So those free agent lists that go over 100 deep? If you’re aiming to guess as to who the Royals would bring in to fill out their roster, start in triple-digits and work your way down.

Meanwhile, the Royals chose not to tender four players prior to Friday’s deadline, making all four free agents. All four were expected to sign minor league deals and remain with the team.

The only surprising thing about Bubba Starling these days is when you remember he’s still playing baseball. The Royals added him to the 40-man roster in November of 2015 to keep him protected from that year’s Rule 5 draft. Since then, he’s amassed 800 plate appearances due to injury. It’s just not going to happen for the guy. Keep him around as an organizational guy at this point.

Jason Adam saw a handful of innings in Kansas City last summer and was a nice story as the local kid who makes good. Except he was underwhelming out of the bullpen. In 32 innings, he surrendered 30 hits, nine of which left the yard. His chase rate was average and he was able to miss bats on occasion. It’s just when contact was made, it was generally hard. On a team looking for bullpen help, it’s a bit of a surprise to me they would remove him from the roster, but it makes sense if they’re going to bring him back. Maybe he’s an adjustment or two away from being a cromulent bullpen piece. 

He got a cup of coffee in 2017, but Andres Machado boarded the struggle bus at the opening of last season. After getting raked at Triple-A (9.72 ERA and 16 walks in 25 innings), he was demoted to Double-A. He found his footing there, but was still allowing far too many baserunners. He’s currently getting lit up in the Venezuela Winter League (5.27 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in 13.2 innings).

Perhaps the biggest surprise was the non-tender of Samir Duenez. The Venezuelan repeated Double-A last summer and improved offensively, hitting .282/.357/.463 in 80 games. He’s been in the organization since 2013 and has been on the 40-man since 2016. Just 22 years old last year, he could conceivably attract interest to another team on a minor league deal. But sometimes, you stick with the one who brought you to the dance. Besides, it’s not like he’s ready for the majors and the Royals are doing him wrong. They’re simply removing him from the 40-man where he’s occupying space that could be put to better use.

The moves leave the Royals with 36 on the 40-man, which gives them the flexibility to add a player or two via free agency (yeah, right) or, more likely, through this month’s Rule 5 draft. When you’re struggling to keep your team above the 100 loss level, it’s all a numbers game anyway.

Even amateurs know you use the Friday after the holiday to bury the bad news, so it wasn’t exactly surprising that the Royals chose that day to announce Mike Matheny would be joining the club as a special advisor. Despite protestations from the beats not to read too much into this move (as in, the Royals just brought the successor to Ned Yost into the org), it’s never too early to panic. Dayton Moore is quite predictable when it comes to matters such as this. Anywho, why rehash that unpleasantness when Colby summed everything up quite succinctly. 

The other move the Royals made, one with fewer long-term consequences, they grabbed right-hander Connor Greene from the Cardinals via waivers. In a corresponding move, they designated Burch Smith for assignment. This is what qualifies as action this winter in Kansas City. Bundle up.

Damn if I know what the Royals see in Greene that they need to create a roster space for him at this very moment. I’m no Burch Smith fanboy, but Greene? When he’s standing next to Josh Staumont and you point at Staumont as having better control, that should raise a red flag or six about the newest Royal. Greene opened the 2018 season in the Texas League and posted a 5.9 BB/9 in just under 50 innings. If you’re going to issue walks like that, it would be nice if you could counter with an abundance of whiffs. An 8.0 SO/9 isn’t going to do it.

Still, that work earned Greene a promotion to the Cardinals Triple-A affiliate where he practically flip-flopped his strikeouts (5.9 SO/9) and walks (an astronomical 8.0 BB/9). He’s struggled with control before, but never like this. For good measure, he went to the Arizona Fall League and walked 15 in just under 10 innings. Damn your small sample size. That’s abysmal.

It was enough for the Cardinals to drop him from the 40-man roster ahead of the deadline to set rosters prior to next month’s Rule 5 draft. Greene arrived in the St. Louis organization last year in the deal that sent Randal Grichuk to Toronto. Prior to that trade, Greene was rated as the Blue Jays fifth best prospect by the BP prospect crew.

The good news: He does throw hard.

The velocity stands out, reaching triple digits from an easy delivery, and sitting 94-98 mph throughout his starts. Greene’s fastball is lively with above-average movement in the mid-90s, though it will become true when he reaches back for peak velocity. The changeup is a second strong pitch with arm-speed deception and good fade.

The Royals obviously see something in the delivery they can fix that will yield better control. Note that by using the word “better” the bar is already set extremely low. Another thing that works in Greene’s favor that I’m sure the Royals realize is that he’s been young for the league he’s played in at every stop along the organizational ladder. Not that age matters so much when you can’t find the strike zone, but he probably deserves a chance or three before he rides off to the independent leagues. And the Royals, on a never-ending quest for bullpen help and in a low pressure situation of zero expectations, can afford to give him that chance.

We saw what Smith could do for a full season and it wasn’t impressive. Why not go ahead and switch him out for another live arm. Still, the control issue for Greene is a massive problem and if he can’t fix that, he’s topping out in the bullpen at Triple-A.

The deadline to tender contracts to players eligible for arbitration is Friday evening. The Royals have three players on the roster who can go to arbitration: Cheslor Cuthbert, Brian Flynn and Jesse Hahn. All three are eligible for the first time.

Cuthbert is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $1.1 million next year. That’s not going to break the bank, even on a club looking to scrimp and save like the Royals. However, why keep him around at all? He missed most of last summer with an injury and when he was in the lineup, both in Kansas City and Omaha, he didn’t exactly produce. He’s just not an average offensive player, even when healthy. Same could be said about the defense. If he had any kind of versatility, you could possibly entertain an argument to keep him around, but it just doesn’t seem to make enough sense. I’m with Flanagan here; the roster space a non-tender would create is more valuable.

Flynn saw his walk rate increase while his whiff rate tumbled. Not a great combination, but the lefty does keep the ball in the yard for the most part, which limits the potential damage. He gave the Royals 75 innings out of the pen and MLB Trade Rumors figures that’s good for a raise to a cool $1 million. Why not? It gives the Royals a little more certainty in the bullpen. Not that you would necessarily give Flynn key innings on the regular, but you can certainly find a tiny bit of value in an average reliever. 

Hahn pitched just six innings in three minor league stops while rehabbing from an injury. (My god! That’s Kyle Zimmer’s music!) He had surgery to repair his UCL (not Tommy John) in August and is now in the process of another rehab. Trade Rumors projects the biggest raise for the starter, at $1.7 million. That’s quite a chunk of change for a pitcher who is not supposed to be ready until the early part of next year. But it’s a cost the Royals should absorb as they need to find out if Hahn can rebound from his latest injury. The upside is certainly there.

Every move the Royals make should be viewed through the prism of their timetable to contend. The smart money says they’re in rebuild mode at least until 2022, which means neither Flynn or Hahn figure to be around when the next expected wave of talent from The Process 2.0 reaches the majors. That doesn’t disqualify them from getting tendered as the Royals still need to fill their roster for the upcoming sesaon. It’s just that, at these arbitration prices, it’s a bit of business even the Royals can afford.

With the first year of a rebuild in the books, and contention seemingly far in the future, it’s not a surprise the Royals list is thin and relatively uninspiring. All told, they have six arbitration eligible players on their roster. Odds are strong the club will non-tender most of this list.

The Royals have close to $67 million committed to five players for 2019, but are reportedly dicing payroll into the $85 to $90 million territory. That means every dollar counts. 

Brandon Maurer
2017 Salary – $2,950,000
2018 Estimate – $3,100,000

Maurer’s claim to fame is last winter he became the first player on Dayton Moore’s watch to go all the way to the arbitration hearing. He lost. Still, he pocketed a cool sum of cash in a season he provided an 8.9 K/9, a 7.2 BB/9 and a 2.0 HR/9 while posting a -0.5 WARP. Really, pick your metric. He stunk up any ballpark where he took to the mound.

He’s eligible for arbitration for the second time and is coming off the worst season of his career. In his best seasons, he’s a decent reliever. Averagish, if we can coin a term. In other words, he’s the kind of guy you sign in February as you’re in the final stages of piecing together a bullpen for a million or two and hope he can keep you in the game in the sixth inning. He’s not someone a rebuilding team needs to tender a contract to.

The guess here is he’s non-tendered and picked up by a mid-level team early in spring training.

Wily Peralta
2017 Salary – $1,500,000
2018 Estimate – $2,800,000

There’s always one. Peralta’s contract makes this an interesting conversation. He signed last year to a one year deal with a club option for $3 million with a low $25,000 buyout. Peralta entered last season with just under five years of service time which means the Royals could decline the option, pay the buyout and proceed through the arbitration process. In other words, could Peralta get more than the $3 million coming to him by entering arbitration?

MLB Trade Rumors takes the under. It’s not under by much, so is it worth it for the Royals to decline the option for a potential savings of around $200,000? Obviously, these are estimates so there’s no guarantee that Peralta would get the above amount. By the rate stats, Peralta wasn’t much better than Maurer: a 9.2 K/9, a 6.0 BB/9 and a 1.0 HR/9 along with a -0.5 WARP. But he saved 14 games for a team that lost 104 after spending almost half the season in the minors. Don’t forget in the arbitration process, counting stats like saves tip the scales rather disproportionately. He never blew a save, but pitched a clean inning in just four of his 14 opportunities.

The Royals of the Allard Baird era probably would’ve non-tendered Peralta to save money. The Moore era is decidedly different where the team generally does the right thing. We can debate whether or not bringing Peralta back at that amount is a good move, but there’s a very small chance the Royals will go this route to save a few dollars. They will pick up his option for 2019 at $3 million.

Jesse Hahn
2017 Salary – $574,000
2018 Estimate – $1,700,000

That’s quite a bump for a pitcher who threw only six innings in the minors last year. Hahn had surgery to repair his UCL sometime around early August with a timetable for his return estimated at around six months. If everything goes according to plan, he should be ready to go at the start of spring training. 

The Royals don’t have the luxury to wait to later in the rehab process to see how things are going. But health has always been a concern and he’s coming off unproven surgery for his injury. Plus, the most innings he’s ever thrown in a season is 115, back in 2014. He seems a candidate for a non-tender where the Royals negotiate a smaller contract with some incentives he could reach if healthy.

Nathan Karns
2017 Salary – $1,375,000
2018 Estimate – $1,375,000

All even for Karns who, like Hahn, had his season entirely short-circuited by injury. He had thoracic outlet surgery in July off 2017 and, after making a few appearances early in spring training, missed all of last year with an elbow injury. 

His stuff is tantalizing and his injury history is depressing. He’s another non-tender candidate who the Royals could bring back on a smaller deal as Karns needs to prove he’s healthy enough to get back on the field.

Cheslor Cuthbert
2017 Salary – $573,500
2018 Estimate – $1,100,000

We won’t blame you if you forgot about Cuthbert. He’s missed time over the last couple of seasons with foot, wrist and back issues. And when he’s been in the lineup… Ugh. Let’s just be kind to the infirm and say .215/.278/.313 over the last couple of seasons (and .252/.303/.378 in 830 career plate appearances) doesn’t get the job done. 

But the third base spot is up for grabs. Hunter Dozier didn’t play well enough to earn it for next year and there’s no one ready in the wings. The Royals could throw some money at Cuthbert and let him and Dozier battle it out. Plus, this estimate feels high given his injury history and lack of production. But when the estimate is already that low, we’re just quibbling over a couple thousand of dollars.

Brian Flynn
2017 Salary – $573,500
2018 Estimate – $1,000,000

Flynn is young, left-handed and has had decent success in the two seasons where he saw extended action out of the bullpen. At this price, he’s worth it to keep around for the bullpen depth. With a 5.6 K/9, a 4.2 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 last summer, he was the kind of reliever who you don’t necessarily want to give valuable innings to, but there’s still a place in a bullpen for someone like Flynn. 

The guess here is the Royals will tender him a contract for 2019.

Assuming the Royals tender Flynn and exercise the option on Peralta, that would push the 2019 payroll to around $71 million for seven players. If we’re to believe the Royals are serious about bringing payroll down to under $90 million, that leaves at most $19 million for the remaining 18 players. It’s certainly doable, but that just sets up the offseason to be one of the most boring winters in recent memory. 

For awhile, the bullpen wasn’t so much the problem as three pitchers – Blaine Boyer, Jason Grimm and Brandon Maurer. That’s actually still true. Just look at these numbers for fun.

Whole Team

Sans MGB

Even though 13 percent of the bullpen’s innings brought the unit’s ERA up a full point, I don’t think it’s fair to say this bullpen is actually any good if you exclude those three. For one, Maurer is still on the team and he’s even thrown four straight scoreless innings somehow. Plus, the same 13 percent of innings going the other way belong to Kelvin Herrera who isn’t even on the team anymore and Brad Keller who is now in the starting rotation. So let’s just say that even though those three are a big ol’ gas can, the bullpen is still a problem. In fact, take a look at the numbers without Herrera and Keller:

So yeah, losing Keller and Herrera from the bullpen hurts quite a bit. Just for fun, here’s what the current crop of relievers have done this year:

All this makes me think back to Dayton Moore’s statements about how he’s embarrassed by this season and how they’re going to do better in 2019. The Royals are 34-78. The bullpen has been responsible for 24 losses. Some of them are not their fault, but they’ve given up leads in 12 games and lost 12 tie games. The offense shoulders some of this blame, but this isn’t about them. This is about the bullpen that is one of the worst we’ve seen in a long time in Kansas City. I’m just pulling a number out of thin air here, but even an average bullpen probably wins, let’s say, six of the games with a  blown lead. And maybe pulls out four of the 12 ties. I’m not even talking about a good bullpen, but an average one. So give the Royals 12 more wins and they’re 46-66. They’re still horrible, still picking top five or six next year, but it’s less disheartening.

Those numbers are exactly why I believe the Royals are going to do something silly and spend some money or player collateral on the bullpen. I understand to some extent. At least a portion of developing big leaguers is winning games, and this bullpen is a deterrent to winning games. And if the Royals end up trading for some long-term assets in the bullpen, I’ll be a lot more okay with that than if they try to make a free agent splash. So what could the 2019 bullpen look like?

Let’s start with the incumbents. The Royals best three relievers right now are, I hope you’re sitting, Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn and Wily Peralta. All have been fine, but none of those three should ever be better than maybe the fourth best reliever in a bullpen. I think they all have their place in a big league bullpen if there aren’t better options, but they need to do better. Glenn Sparkman and Jason Adam have shown flashes of being acceptable as well, though Adam obviously allows too many home runs right now and I think Sparkman falls in the same category as the first three eventually.

There are a couple minor league options. Richard Lovelady is the obvious here, and I think he’ll be up in the big leagues soon enough and it’s pretty clear he’s part of the future plans. Josh Staumont has been in the rotation and the bullpen this year, but as a reliever has excelled in many ways this year. The issue is that he’s still walking way too many with 35 in 44.2 innings out of the bullpen. Still, 65 strikeouts in that time is pretty attractive. And they also have Jorge Lopez, who they received in the Mike Moustakas deal. The Royals are figuring out his role right now, but I’ll play spoiler and tell you he ends up in the bullpen. He hasn’t been good yet and has control issues like Staumont, but a 95 MPH fastball and a plus curve could be a nice combination.

Looking to free agents, I could see the Royals signing a guy to close with the idea of maybe flipping him in July. Cody Allen is out there and maybe his struggles push him to a team like the Royals, but I still think he gets a deal with a contender. David Robertson will be a free agent, but I can’t imagine he’ll enjoy going from a team like the Yankees to the Royals unless he’s desperate to get a closer’s job and nobody else is offering one. Your better bets here are guys like John Axford, Brad Brach, Brad Ziegler or maybe someone like Justin Wilson.

And looking at some trade targets, maybe they see if they can get Ken Giles right if he doesn’t do well in Toronto. The Mariners are always a possibility to trade with and they have Alex Colome setting up for Edwin Diaz and might want some youth somewhere. I bet the Rockies would gladly move away from their Bryan Shaw deal. Or their Jake McGee deal. Or their Wade Davis deal. That’s a lot of money to absorb in any of those deals, so they’re unlikely, but you never know what can be worked out.

The point is, right or wrong, the Royals are probably going to be making some bullpen moves unless a few players step up over the last couple months of the season. I don’t think they’ll be spending huge money or anything, but it’s difficult to look at what this bullpen has done so far and how Dayton Moore feels about this season and not think there are changes coming. Is it worth it to win 71 games instead of 64? I don’t believe it is, but I have a feeling the front office disagrees and they get the final say for better or for worse.

Oh, I’ll grant you that Cleveland’s run as (ironically?) the Golden State Warriors of the Central means that the target is on their back and that they’ll always get the best shot their outgunned opponent can give them, and it’s cute that occasionally one of these teams full of goobers will beat the Great and Powerful Indians. But the result is largely token, and only a simpleton would believe otherwise.

Now, Minnesota and Kansas City? That’s even footing. And Saturday’s show was another quality performance by the Royals, who won their first series since late May with a 4-2 decision against the Twins.

Both teams slapped up runs in the first inning. Twins leadoff hitter Joe Mauer doubled to get the game started and scored on an Eddie Rosario single, while a Jorge Bonifacio walk begat a Salvador Perez homer in the Royals half. Perez is hitting .303 over the last eight games, with three homers and 11 RBI. He’s heating up. The 2018 All-Star experience may not have been in vain.

The Royals added a run in the third, but oh what might have been. Alcides Escobar led off with a walk, then the lineup turned over with pop outs from Whit Merrifield and Bonifacio. Mike Moustakas and Perez then drew two-out walks to bring up Lucas Duda, who singled in a run and could be YOURS if the price is right! With the bags still full, Hunter Dozier worked the count full before grounding out to Mauer at first to end the inning.

With 18 days between appearances, Ned Yost used caution with young Master Junis and removed him after four innings and 77 pitches. Speaking of terrible pitch economy, Lance Lynn needed 118 pitches to get through five innings. During the broadcast, Whitey Herzog rolled through to spout some old-man “the game was better in my day” nonsense, but he may have been onto something about pitchers throwing too many pitches.

Brian Flynn replaced Junis and pitched three scoreless innings. Somehow, I seem to have missed that Brian Flynn turned into one of the more passable options in Ned Yost’s bullpen, but he clued me in tonight with three innings, four strikeouts and one lone hit allowed. Jason Adam—who surrendered a single to Rosario, balked him to second and then gave up a single to Eduardo Escobar to plate him—not so much, but Ned Yost removed him before too much damage could be done and Tim Hill got Jorge Polanco to bounce into the 4-6-3 double play to end the inning.

A one-run lead with [gestures] THIS bullpen is not a source of personal comfort for me or anyone else that watches this team on the regular. Which is why, fortunately, they were able to tack on another in the eighth. Alex Gordon and Rosell Herrera led off the frame with walks and moved up thanks to an Escobar sacrifice. Merrifield punched a single through the drawn-in infield to score Gordon—given that Bonifacio’s bouncer to third would nail Herrera at the plate three pitches later, he probably should’ve been waived home as well, especially since the throw from Rosario in left was a good 30 feet up the first base line.

Either way, it made it a 4-2 game and Wily Peralta got a chance to redeem himself after last night’s fiasco. Max Kepler ground out, Robbie Grossman ground out, Jake Cave strikeout = redemption.

Unusually Happy Tweet of the Game

Please call him future hall of famer Sal Perez #Royals https://t.co/FYDznWp4T8

— Chris (@bballkansas) July 21, 2018

The Bright Spot: Flynn, who got a Salvy Splash for his troubles. Also, shouts to Jorge Bonifacio—three walks from the two-spot.

The Nadir: Hunter Dozier was 0-for-4 on the night, is 1-for-8 on the series and 4-for-32 since July 6. He’s hitting .206, which is not what you’d prefer out of your DH.

The Next Step: Brad Keller has been solid since moving into the rotation and now he has a chance to secure a sweep (yes, teams are allowed to sweep other teams) when he toes the rubber against Jake Odorizzi and the Twins at 1:15 p.m. (CT), Sunday.

Speaking of mistakes, they were made against Jorge Soler and Mike Moustakas by the Texas Rangers on Friday night, but those mistakes ultimately didn’t matter in an 8-4 loss in the Lone Star State.

Moustakas’ 11^th slam of the season put things on solid footing for the Royals early. It’s not been the easiest trip for Moustakas—he entered Friday 2-for-15 on the road trip—but he remains one of 10 players league-wide with 50 hits, 10 doubles, 10 homers and 30 RBI and gave the Royals an early lead.

And Eric Skoglund had a two-run lead for almost two batters before surrendering a solo blast to Shin-Soo Choo’s Corpse. And while it’s fun to play “Who says no to Danny Duffy for Shin-Soo Choo aka baseball’s version of gout for cellulite?” the honest answer is that the Royals would pull the trigger on Choo (one fewer year of commitment, still semi-productive) for Duffy (extra year commitment, unclear if still any good more than once a month) in a vacuum. In the real world, Duffy matters in Kansas City in a way Choo could not, and for a franchise whose attendance is rapidly cratering, Duffy remains something of a draw every five days, especially if he can somehow start to turn it around. Choo would be a novelty for about a week, and then Just Another Guy.

Anyway, where was I?

Oh yeah, baseball game.

In the third inning, Delino Deshields led off with a triple, scoring on a Nomar Mazara ground out. That kicked off a stretch of three innings where Texas scored at least once an inning, beginning with the Deshields-Mazara combo in the third, a Ronald Guzman two-run dinger in the fourth and a two-run Mazara blast in the fifth. Jurickson Profar’s double one batter after Mazara’s homer ended Mr. Skoglund’s day after 4.1 innings and six earned, including three homers given up. His ERA is 6.70.

As for Kansas City, Soler homered during this time and while goofing on Soler is fun when Soler is (pick any of a number of dingusy things Jorge does), and despite the fact that he was 1-for-13 on the trip entering the game, watching Jorge Soler send baseballs into orbit is the only abject joy I feel like I regularly find with the Royals. He hits baseballs like he thinks they’ve wronged his family going back generations, and I respect the hell out of that.

Of course, by the end of Skoglund’s night, it was 6-3 Rangers and the Royals bullpen was heading in to fan the flames. I could stop right here but I feel compelled to finish this out because I’m a professional and you may need to take a large poop in the morning and I don’t want you to run out of reading material.

Because I’m a giver, that’s why.

And there are things I can say about Brian Flynn because he was good! I mean, he was Brian Flynn good; he didn’t make things worse, he struck a couple guys out and he gave the offense a chance to make up the deficit (it didn’t, because reasons). One could do worse than Brian Flynn.

And after 2.2 innings, the Royals did! Blaine Boyer. Blaine Boyer (COPY PASTE WHATEVER FORMER CRAP YOU’VE TALKED ABOUT BLAINE BOYER HERE, IT’S ALL THE SAME, TIME IS A FLAT CIRCLE). He gave up two runs in the eighth, the first on a Guzman triple (scoring Robinson Chirinos after a leadoff walk); Guzman then scored on a DeShields single to bring Texas’ night of offense to an end.

There also was a run-scoring Ramon Torres double in the seventh that does not really bear comment, aside from a “Hey, good for him.”

The Royals actually loaded the bases in the ninth, all with two outs. Jon Jay walked. Whit Merrifield singled. Moustakas walked. Things looked promising!

Salvador Perez worked a 3-1 count from Keone Kela. It was now or never. Kela unfurled a heater that caught the fat part of the plate. Perez swung, lifting a drive to center…

That DeShields settled under to end the game.

The Bright Spot: Flynn’s been working longer (five outings of two-plus innings of his last eight); maybe he’s turning into this year’s Mike Minor, who started for Texas Friday evening.

The Nadir: Skoglund has had better days. So has Salvy, whose flyout to end the game was part of an 0-for-5 evening that dropped his average to .244. Maybe batting average isn’t everything, but also maybe hitting .244 isn’t very good.

The Next Step: I am so excited to see Bartolo Colon throw pitches tomorrow I can’t stand it. And that’s a phrase you’ll never hear me say about Ian Kennedy unless he gets traded to the White Sox.

The group they break camp with for the opener on Thursday will most assuredly look different by the All-Star break. Hell, it’s likely there will be plenty of turnover before the end of April.

Still, the first pitch of the season has yet to be uncorked, and the lineup looks to be fairly settled, so what else are we going to do? (Spring training is too damn long.)

Let’s start with the known relief quantities. If you want to get a picture of how different 2018 will be from the last several seasons, look here. This is a limited subset of the bullpen with only Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as the relievers currently to be trusted.

Ned Yost is back to declaring only Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as bullpen locks. Justin Grimm and Rule 5 pick Brad Keller seem safely on the team. Same with Blaine Boyer. The rest … who can say?

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) March 25, 2018

Justin Grimm lost his arbitration case with the Cubs (he asked for $2.475 million and was awarded the club counter at $2.2 million) and was then released in mid-March. He gets roughly $530,000 of that, plus the additional $1.25 million he agreed to with the Royals. Grimm has seen a steady decline in his performance since his peak in 2015 when he posted a 1.99 ERA in just under 50 innings.

Last summer it was an increase in home run and walk rate, combined with a decrease in strikeout rate that contributed to his struggles. No pitcher can overcome those self-inflicted obstacles. The question is whether he can curb the trends. His HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 22%, so let’s just feel good about the assumption he can reduce his HR/9.

For those of you still jonesing for the Dayton Moore to Atlanta connection, we present Blaine Boyer. Boyer was selected in the third round of the 2000 draft by the Braves and made his major league debut all the way back in 2005, when Moore was director of player personnel development. Boyer is difficult for hitters to barrel, but still allows too many baserunners to be completely trusted.

He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, so the Royals will have to dump someone from the 40-man if he’s going to stick.

Already on the 40-man roster are a pair of Rule 5 selections in Burch Smith and Brad Keller. This is the tricky part where we will veer into the statistical realm of Spring Training. Keller has thrown 10 innings and whiffed 14 while posting a 2.70 ERA. The caveat here is that his Baseball Reference OppQual score which measures the quality of opposing batters he faced is a weak 7.1. BR defines that as around Double-A quality. Read into that what you will.

Meanwhile, Smith has whiffed 16 in 12 innings of work. His ERA of 7.50 and 24 total baserunners allowed could be alarming if you are one to read heavily into exhibition baseball performance.

As Rule 5 picks, both Smith and Keller can’t be optioned directly to the minors, They first have to pass through waivers and then offered back to their original teams. (The Rays and Diamondbacks, respectively.) They also have to serve at least 90 days on the active roster, or we repeat this whole drill next season.

Brian Flynn is out of options and is the lone southpaw in consideration here, so it’s difficult to understand why he’s not considered a lock at this point. He’s also looked sharp this spring with a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings of work. He’s whiffed 10 and walked just one.

Apparently, Wily Peralta is still in the mix, although it’s difficult to understand why. He’s had a miserable spring to this point with a whopping 24 baserunners in just eight innings of work. I don’t give a damn about your sample size. When those are your numbers…woof. Peralta was signed to a $1.525 million contract for 2018, which means the Royals are on the hook for just over $380,000 if they cut him before Opening Day. He will reportedly stay in Arizona on Monday to throw a pair of innings in a minor league game.

That’s an eight man bullpen to open the year. While the Royals are saying they have only two “locks,” it really looks like they have six or seven, depending on where you stand with the two Rule 5 guys. The real question at this point is whether they want to gamble about $1.2 million on Peralta making the tradition to the pen.

There are still other options. The Royals are reportedly considering keeping Eric Skoglund with the club as a middle reliever. It’s difficult to understand the logic behind that move should it come to fruition, as he’s much more valuable as a starter. And if the Royals see him as a fit in the rotation in the future, he should open the year in Omaha. Speaking of Omaha, he will start the Royals final exhibition game against the Storm Chasers on Monday.

Tim Hill was protected by the Royals in the Rule 5 draft and could be rewarded with a spot on the Opening Day roster, although he represents the longest long shot. However, the Royals want him to work on his slider, so it looks like Triple-A is the destination.

And all the roster intrigue isn’t limited to the bullpen. All indications are Ryan Goins will make the team which means another 40-man roster move is forthcoming.

Opening Day is just around the corner. The bullpen questions have yet to be settled, but don’t discount the Royals’ ability to spring a surprise roster move or two before everything is set for Thursday.

• There has been a lot of talk about the unwritten rules of baseball this week. It stems mostly from Jarrod Dyson laying down a bunt in the sixth inning of a game where Justin Verlander was throwing a perfect game. You didn’t ask for my opinion, but that’s the great thing about Friday Notes. You’re going to get it anyway. I’ll quote Herm Edwards here. You play to win the game. Jarrod Dyson’s game is speed. He puts the ball on the ground, he runs real fast and sometimes he’s safe at first. The Mariners were down 4-0 in the sixth inning to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid-4s as a team scoring about 4.8 runs per game. Is a four-run deficit game over? Not in my eyes it isn’t. There is no time in which an opposing team should stop trying to do everything they can to create runs for their team. Okay, that’s not true. I did have that opinion until Hunter Samuels made a good point in the BP KC break room about it being like a 12-0 game or something. At that point, don’t bunt, there’s no need. But what Dyson did on Wednesday night is not only okay in my book, it’s encouraged.
• Travis Wood has an ERA of 6.51 this season, which is just terrible, but if you’ve been following this team for more than a couple weeks this season, you’ll know that it’s pretty impressive given where he was not too long ago. At the end of April, he had an ERA of 18.56. At the end of May, it was basically cut in half to 9.17. After allowing two runs in 1.2 innings on June 4, though, Wood has thrown 8.1 consecutive scoreless innings over six outings. And maybe more importantly, he’s walked just one while striking out six. So the question is what’s different. I don’t know if this is making a huge difference, but prior to his recent stretch, Wood had thrown four-seam fastballs more than half the time and very few two-seamers. He was throwing his cutter a little more than 20 percent of the time and throwing some changeups and breaking balls. Since, he’s reduced his four-seam fastball usage to about 33 percent and thrown two-seamers a bit more than 25 percent of the time. He’s also thrown his cutter a bit more while pulling back a lot on his changeup. Opponents haven’t gotten a hit on his cutter, slider or changeup and have hit just .167 against the two-seamer. Prior to that game on June 6, he’d allowed a .342 average and .463 slugging percentage on his fastball while his slider and curve were destroyed (in admittedly limited samples). Look, it’s just a few games, so we’ll see if he reverts, but he appears to have moved away from what wasn’t working in search of something else and he’s found a solution.
• On the flip side, Jorge Bonifacio has had some tough times since moving to the number two spot in the lineup. He’s still getting his home runs with three in 15 games, but he’s been striking out quite a bit. He’s been beaten with fastballs lately, but I had a hunch he was being pitched away with breaking stuff more. Strangely enough, that hunch was wrong. Pitchers have actually been more over the plate with the curves and sliders lately and stopped going to the spot low and away that they tried to attack in his first 40 or so games in the big leagues. I’m not entirely sure yet if that’s a good sign or bad, but I feel like part of why they stopped going to that well is because he just wasn’t swinging. My hunch is that he’s just going through a bit of a slump, but watching young players try to adjust is always really interesting because you can learn quite a bit from them. The guys who can’t adapt aren’t long for this league. The ones who can usually can find their way to a nice career. I think Bonifacio is a smart enough hitter with a good enough plan at the plate that he’ll adjust and get through this, but it’s worth watching, especially while Jorge Soler is raking in Omaha. Note: I am not suggesting they demote Bonifacio and bring up Soler right now. I’m just making the point there are alternatives if it should come to that.
• As Jeffrey Flannagan noted on Twitter the other day, a decision will have to be made on Brian Flynn by Sunday as that’s the end of his 30-day rehab assignment. That means he will need to be activated from the 60-day DL and placed back on the 40-man roster. Now, Flynn has had a rough go of it in Omaha with two especially bad outings, but he still needs a spot and the Royals currently don’t have one. I see a couple options. The first is that Hunter Dozier with a broken hamate bone could be transferred to the 60-day DL and Flynn can take his spot. The second is that Nate Karns could be transferred to the 60-day DL. At this point, he’s been out since May 20 anyway, so he likely won’t be back within 60 days. That would delay the decision. And the third is to just drop someone from the 40-man. Miguel Almonte having a nice season probably saves him, but the obvious choice is Chris Young, who does provide a valuable service of pitching innings so other people don’t have to, but let’s be real. You’d still rather have a better pitcher on the roster than that. I’m not sure Flynn will be in the big leagues since he has an option left, but he’ll definitely need to be added to the 40-man, so it’ll be interesting to see what the move is.

HR Roll Call: Gabe Cancel (4)

BPKC Hitter of the Day: Ramon Torres 2-4, 2b, 4 RBI 

BPKC Pitcher of the Day: Jace Vines 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 7-5 GO-FO, 98p/64k

Omaha Storm Chasers 10, Round Rock Express 8 

One of those windy Werner days led to an interesting game on Monday between Omaha and Round Rock.

The Chasers offense kept their groove with another 10-hit day. Rangers pitcher Tyson Ross struggled with the strikezone during his entire outing, hitting the zone with just 39 of 86 pitches which led to five of Omaha’s seven walks. Those walks, combined with six hits, helped Omaha score six runs after just three innings to build a five run lead.

The Express used the wind to their advantage to claw back into the game, hitting four homers on the day including a three-run shot from Drew Stubbs in the fifth off starter Josh Staumont, and a two-run homer off Scott Alexander in the next inning to tie the game at 6-6.

Despite the mid-game tie, the Chasers kept their winning ways going, coming up with a four spot in their half of the sixth. Shortstop Ramon Torres came through with the big hit in the inning, a two-run double that also moved Dean Anna to third. A sacrifice fly from Hunter Dozier on the very next at-bat would plate Anna to push the Omaha advantage to 10-6.

Lefty reliever Brian Flynn would give up a two-run home run in the seventh before settling in, combining with Al Alburquerque over the final three innings to secure the fifth consecutive win for Omaha.

Boxscore Link

Josh Staumont 5 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 6-2 GO-FO, 84p/41k
Brian Flynn 2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 1-1 GO-FO, 27p/21k
Ramon Torres 2-4, 2b, 4 RBI

Potomac Nationals 3, Wilmington Blue Rocks 2

The Blue Rocks attempted another come from behind win, but came up short this time versus Potomac.

The Rocks trailed Potomac 3-0 after a three-run fifth inning versus starter Cristian Castillo. The lefty, who had put up zeroes to that point, got touched up by top Nationals prospect, Victor Robles, with a two-run home run to left. Quickly after the homer, the Nationals followed with a double and a single to push the third run across and put the Rocks in another hole.

As Wilmington had all series long though, they mounted a comeback, scoring a run in the seventh on a Nicky Lopez single and another in the eighth to limit the deficit to just one run.

The Rocks would quickly get the tying run into scoring position in the ninth after Lopez walked and advanced to second on a wild pitch with no out in the inning, but the next three batters would go down in order leaving Lopez stranded at third.

Boxscore Link

Nicky Lopez 1-3, RBI, 2BB
Cristian Castillo 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 4-4 GO-FO, 87p/58k
Roman Collins 1-3, R, 2b, BB

Lexington Legends 6, Asheville Tourists 2

The Legends received another good start from Jace Vines and some late insurance runs for their first win of the year in Asheville.

Playing in the cozy park, the Legends jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning on back to back doubles from Angelo Castellano and Kort Peterson. That lead was quickly erased in the home half, though, when the Tourists used three singles to plate a run.

The teams would exchange zeroes from there until the sixth inning when Legends second baseman Gabe Cancel would homer to break the 1-1 tie. The game stayed there until the Legends tacked on four runs in the eighth, getting three doubles sandwiched around a walk to plate three runs. Marten Gasparini singled in the fourth and final run in the inning.

A solo home run by Asheville in the eighth would cap the game’s scoring before reliever Walker Sheller and Grant Gavin shut the door for Lexington.

Boxscore Link

Gabe Cancel 1-4, HR
Manny Olloque 1-2, R, 2BB
Rudy Martin 2-3, R, 2b, 2 RBI

I said sort of tongue in cheek that the Royals would need to go 39-14 in their final 53 to make the playoffs. I didn’t expect it was a possibility. Now they have to go 18-5 the rest of the way (maybe less if you don’t think 90 is the number). Can they do it? Sure. Will they? I’d guess not, but we’ll find out soon enough.

• After the last loss, it seems that Royals social media was determined to find a scapegoat and determined to make it Joakim Soria. And I get it. When Soria has been bad, he’s not only been bad, but he’s been detrimental to the team. He’s given up leads like it’s going out of style. He’s fifth on the team in losses in spite of throwing just the eighth most innings. I thought Soria would work his way out of it after some early season struggles that seemed to be a little on the unlucky side. Boy, was I wrong. That’s not to say he hasn’t had his moments because he has been very good at times, too. Still, the way he’s pitched is unacceptable. And even so, to say he’s the number one reason the Royals aren’t in line to make the playoffs is simplifying the issues too much for my taste. It’s easy to see the numbers and make that connection, but he is just one of many issues this team has faced this year. They’ve lost their number two and number three hitters for large chunks, if not most, of the season. They lost their closer. They lost their left fielder and when he’s played, he’s mostly been a remarkably bad hitter. Their first baseman is maybe an average hitter this year. They led off Alcides Escobar for months with a sub-.300 OBP. The fifth starter spot in the rotation has been an unmitigated disaster. It all contributes. It’s easy to see Soria turning wins into losses and think he’s the problem, but it’s too long of a season for one person to be the I’ve probably been a Soria apologist at times this year, but that’s not what’s happening here. That’s just saying there’s plenty of blame to go around. Darin Watson has more on this.
• With regard to the bullpen, one player I feel is getting overlooked a bit is Brian Flynn. He’s been fantastic this season, putting up numbers I think were expected of him last season before his injury. You may remember that he was turning heads in spring training 2015 and then got caught in a numbers crunch before getting hurt very early in the season. He came to camp this year and really wasn’t as good, but a lot of that seemed likely to be rust. All he’s done is post a 2.36 ERA in 45.2 innings. He’s given up just 5.9 hits per nine and has allowed an opponent’s TAv of .262. Yeah, he’s maybe walked a few more than you’d like and he doesn’t seem as dominant as you’d think he would be, but he’s done a nice job for this team this season. It’s also worth noting that he had that bad start against the Indians. As a reliever, he’s posted a 1.87 ERA in 43.1 innings with even better peripherals. That one start really threw things out of whack. Between his work and what Peter Moylan has done against righties (.232/.283/.284), I’d use those two as the seventh inning tandem on days Matt Strahm isn’t available. Relegate Soria to the Wang role or something and call it a day.
• I’ve seen a lot of people talk about Escobar’s option and how the Royals should decline it, pay the buyout and just move Raul Mondesi to shortstop next season. I get the logic. The guy has a .298 OBP. He seems significantly slower than he once was and his defense isn’t what many believe it to be (in my opinion). But at the same time, the option is for $6.5 million, which is a pretty insignificant outlay for a guy who has been worth 5.6 WARP over the last almost three seasons. In fact, with a win being worth roughly $8 million on the open market, Escobar has either been worth about that $6.5 million salary or more in five of his six seasons with the Royals when you measure it by WARP. When you add in that Mondesi is hitting a gentleman’s .179/.227/.268 on the season, I’m not so sure turning shortstop over to him next season is the best idea in what many believe is the final season of a championship window. Sure they could go out and sign Erick Aybar or Alexei Ramirez or something, but even if it’s a cheaper deal, how much cheaper is it going to get for a free agent in a weak market? Is it worth disrupting the clubhouse like that? I wouldn’t say so. As long as Escobar is batting in the bottom third of the order, I’m more than happy with him on the team in 2017. No, he’s not exactly an elite defender and he can’t really hit, but he’s out there every day and gives you pretty solid value for that $6.5 million.
• There was a discussion on The Drive on 610 Sports the other day about Kendrys Morales and if he’s done enough to garner a qualifying offer from the Royals with his recent hot streak. My answer on Twitter when Danny Parkins brought it up was that it isn’t crazy to think he might have. I didn’t think he would get a QO when I said it isn’t crazy to think that way, but it got me thinking about Morales in general a little bit. What’s interesting is that he’s had two different stretches of 45 games where he’s been basically unplayable, especially as a DH. And then he’s had two other stretches (one he’s currently in) where he’s been out of this world good. I mentioned them in my piece on the Royals MVP yesterday. Now, you can’t do this statistically. It all counts. But still, in his two crazy hot streaks, he’s hit .463/.514/.968. Wow. The rest of the year, he’s hit .206/.277/.336. So the question is if he’s the consistent force the Royals saw last season or if he’s now, as he’s aged, morphed into a guy who can truly carry a team for two weeks at a time and be as hot as anyone on the planet but is a disaster otherwise. My guess is somewhere in between. It’s hard to argue with the 26 home runs, but as a DH, his overall .258/.325/.463 leaves something to be desired. As for his future with the team, I still believe the Royals will look to utilize Mike Moustakas, Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier all in the same lineup if possible, and that means no Kendrys on the team. I could see a scenario where they trade one or two of the third basemen and Morales sees that $11 million mutual option and thinks it makes some sense and the Royals agree. In that case, sure, I could see him back, but that seems like a long shot here. In spite of all this, it’s sure fun to watch Morales when he’s scorching hot like this. Hopefully it continues for, oh, about 23 more games.