Even amateurs know you use the Friday after the holiday to bury the bad news, so it wasn’t exactly surprising that the Royals chose that day to announce Mike Matheny would be joining the club as a special advisor. Despite protestations from the beats not to read too much into this move (as in, the Royals just brought the successor to Ned Yost into the org), it’s never too early to panic. Dayton Moore is quite predictable when it comes to matters such as this. Anywho, why rehash that unpleasantness when Colby summed everything up quite succinctly. 

The other move the Royals made, one with fewer long-term consequences, they grabbed right-hander Connor Greene from the Cardinals via waivers. In a corresponding move, they designated Burch Smith for assignment. This is what qualifies as action this winter in Kansas City. Bundle up.

Damn if I know what the Royals see in Greene that they need to create a roster space for him at this very moment. I’m no Burch Smith fanboy, but Greene? When he’s standing next to Josh Staumont and you point at Staumont as having better control, that should raise a red flag or six about the newest Royal. Greene opened the 2018 season in the Texas League and posted a 5.9 BB/9 in just under 50 innings. If you’re going to issue walks like that, it would be nice if you could counter with an abundance of whiffs. An 8.0 SO/9 isn’t going to do it.

Still, that work earned Greene a promotion to the Cardinals Triple-A affiliate where he practically flip-flopped his strikeouts (5.9 SO/9) and walks (an astronomical 8.0 BB/9). He’s struggled with control before, but never like this. For good measure, he went to the Arizona Fall League and walked 15 in just under 10 innings. Damn your small sample size. That’s abysmal.

It was enough for the Cardinals to drop him from the 40-man roster ahead of the deadline to set rosters prior to next month’s Rule 5 draft. Greene arrived in the St. Louis organization last year in the deal that sent Randal Grichuk to Toronto. Prior to that trade, Greene was rated as the Blue Jays fifth best prospect by the BP prospect crew.

The good news: He does throw hard.

The velocity stands out, reaching triple digits from an easy delivery, and sitting 94-98 mph throughout his starts. Greene’s fastball is lively with above-average movement in the mid-90s, though it will become true when he reaches back for peak velocity. The changeup is a second strong pitch with arm-speed deception and good fade.

The Royals obviously see something in the delivery they can fix that will yield better control. Note that by using the word “better” the bar is already set extremely low. Another thing that works in Greene’s favor that I’m sure the Royals realize is that he’s been young for the league he’s played in at every stop along the organizational ladder. Not that age matters so much when you can’t find the strike zone, but he probably deserves a chance or three before he rides off to the independent leagues. And the Royals, on a never-ending quest for bullpen help and in a low pressure situation of zero expectations, can afford to give him that chance.

We saw what Smith could do for a full season and it wasn’t impressive. Why not go ahead and switch him out for another live arm. Still, the control issue for Greene is a massive problem and if he can’t fix that, he’s topping out in the bullpen at Triple-A.

The deadline to tender contracts to players eligible for arbitration is Friday evening. The Royals have three players on the roster who can go to arbitration: Cheslor Cuthbert, Brian Flynn and Jesse Hahn. All three are eligible for the first time.

Cuthbert is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $1.1 million next year. That’s not going to break the bank, even on a club looking to scrimp and save like the Royals. However, why keep him around at all? He missed most of last summer with an injury and when he was in the lineup, both in Kansas City and Omaha, he didn’t exactly produce. He’s just not an average offensive player, even when healthy. Same could be said about the defense. If he had any kind of versatility, you could possibly entertain an argument to keep him around, but it just doesn’t seem to make enough sense. I’m with Flanagan here; the roster space a non-tender would create is more valuable.

Flynn saw his walk rate increase while his whiff rate tumbled. Not a great combination, but the lefty does keep the ball in the yard for the most part, which limits the potential damage. He gave the Royals 75 innings out of the pen and MLB Trade Rumors figures that’s good for a raise to a cool $1 million. Why not? It gives the Royals a little more certainty in the bullpen. Not that you would necessarily give Flynn key innings on the regular, but you can certainly find a tiny bit of value in an average reliever. 

Hahn pitched just six innings in three minor league stops while rehabbing from an injury. (My god! That’s Kyle Zimmer’s music!) He had surgery to repair his UCL (not Tommy John) in August and is now in the process of another rehab. Trade Rumors projects the biggest raise for the starter, at $1.7 million. That’s quite a chunk of change for a pitcher who is not supposed to be ready until the early part of next year. But it’s a cost the Royals should absorb as they need to find out if Hahn can rebound from his latest injury. The upside is certainly there.

Every move the Royals make should be viewed through the prism of their timetable to contend. The smart money says they’re in rebuild mode at least until 2022, which means neither Flynn or Hahn figure to be around when the next expected wave of talent from The Process 2.0 reaches the majors. That doesn’t disqualify them from getting tendered as the Royals still need to fill their roster for the upcoming sesaon. It’s just that, at these arbitration prices, it’s a bit of business even the Royals can afford.

Should we take that as gospel given that the bottom six in the Royals order went 1-for-22 (albeit with seven walks), or do we give Carlos Rodon some credit? Rodon’s ERA on the season is hovering near 3.10 after his evening—but he also gets to pitch in the American League Central, which probably helps. Same for Eric Skoglund since his return from injury—he likewise pitched well tonight, his second outing since a lengthy DL stint, and his second appearance against a hapless Central foe.

This is not necessarily to bag on the AL Central, but it’s just that we’ve now seen the White Sox 19 times and aside from the season opener, when Chicago destroyed every pitcher the Royals put on offer, they’ve all been the kind of bland affair that runs together. A couple of times, Danny Duffy shoved. Alex Gordon drove in four runs once. The walk-off win is a misnomer, because involved Alcides Escobar’s walk-off sac bunt that was thrown into left field. I don’t want to see the White Sox again for a while, which is good because this was the last scheduled affair between Kansas City and the Pale Hose this year.

Because these teams can’t get enough of one another, this one was destined to go into the wee small hours. How they got there is my tail to tell and buddy, I am here for yet another round between these storied rivals.

Win or lose, the thing to remember about this game is that Adalberto Mondesi was the best player on the field. Sure, his competition for that honor was either Salvador Perez or Rodon, but neither had BERTO’s night. Son of Raul went 4-for-5, starting his night with a one-out double in the first inning that was immediately negated by a hit-and-run liner that settled into Ryan LaMarre’s glove in left field and he was able to easily double Mondesi off second to end the inning.

Aside from a Jose Rondon double play ball, not much happened in the second, but both teams missed big opportunities in the third inning. For the White Sox, it was failing to cash in on Adam Engel’s leadoff triple; he broke for the plate on Ryan Cordell’s tapper and was out on a good Whit Merrifield throw to more or less end the threat.

The Royals were more fortunate, even managing to scratch a run in their third, but more was there for the taking. Leadoff walks by Brian Goodwin and Ryan O’Hearn were negated by a 5-4 double play ball by Whit Merrifield to leave only the speedy Whit on the basepaths. One steal and a BERTO single later, Merrifield had the Royals first run. BERTO and Alex Gordon (single) then pulled off a double steal, but unfortunately Jorge Bonifacio flew out to end the inning.

The White Sox got on the board in the fourth; following an Avisail Garcia walk, Jose Rondon slammed a homer to left to put the Sox up one. The Royals answered in the fifth, and again Adalberto “Please, Raul was my father’s name” Mondesi was involved. O’Hearn led off with a walk, but was gunned at third on Merrifield’s double. Whit made it easy on Mondesi by stealing third, setting up the sac fly opportunity, but instead Mondesi slapped a single into right to tie the game up.

Tim Anderson led off the Chicago sixth with a single. Nothing happened. Ditto Chicago’s seventh, when Nicky Delmonico and Omar Narvaez delivered back-to-back one-out singles. An Engel groundout, intentional walk to Daniel Palka and Anderson groundout got reliever Glenn Sparkman out of trouble with the tie intact.

But so too did Chicago’s bullpen bend without breaking. Caleb Frare retired the first two Royals of the seventh without incident before walking O’Hearn. He was removed. Jose Ruiz walked Merrifield. He was removed. Aaron Bummer gave up a single to BERTO to load the bases, but he got to stay in the game and rewarded his manager’s faith in him by inducing a Gordon ground out to end the inning.

Nothing happened in the eighth, ninth or 10^th. With one down in the 11^th, Salvador Perez laced a double down the line into the left-field corner; Brett Phillips, who is fast, replaced Perez, who is not, on second to set the stage for a play at the plate. A walk to Alcides Escobar (LETHAL with the game on the line) and wild pitch moved Phillips to third and Esky to second. Here it comes. It’s coming.

Rosell Herrera hits a liner… right at Anderson, who doubled Phillips off at third.

Burch Smith coaxed two outs in the 12^th, but you knew eventually that the Royals would dissolve into a puddle of sadness; when was the big question. It happened when Anderson launched yet another home run (his 43^rd against the Royals this year, by my estimate) to make it 4-2 Sox.

Sweetie, you know the Royals didn’t score in the 12^th. Goodwin flyout, O’Hearn strikeout, Merrifield groundout. BERTO on deck for the final batter.

A Strangely Ambivalent, “Why God Why?” Tweet of the Night

“As I say, neither team can figure out a way to get a run. On we go, to the 12th.” -Denny Matthews, whomst has seen some #Royals baseball in his life

— One-Finger Armstrong (@armstrongtr) September 13, 2018

The Bright Spot: BERTO

The Nadir: Tough to make a 4-for-5 stand up when everyone else went a collective 3-for-33.

The Next Step: Heath Fillmyer, who really isn’t all that great and got his butt handed to him by the Twins last Friday, will try once again to solve the enigma that emanates from the Twin Cities. Stephen Gonsalves has been even worse, so we’ll see how this glorified staff day goes.

I’m going to do something I love to do, and that’s link back to something I wrote that was actually correct. And then I’m going to explain why I was wrong, which you should all be more accustomed to.

I pegged Salvy as a bounce-back candidate for a strong second half, noting that once Mike Moustakas and anyone else resembling a professional hitter was dealt, opponents would have no incentive to pitch to him, so his on-base percentage should climb and he would make better contact and generally settle into slightly above league-average.

And I was right! His OBP has climbed 20 points to a still-miserable .273. His OPS is a heartbeat from .700. his batting average is up to .237—again, not great, but he was hitting less than .210 on July 3.

But what I didn’t realize is that we’d go from, “I dunno if Salvador Perez is a worthy All-Star this year,” to “I don’t know how you could give the American League Silver Slugger Award to any catcher other than Salvador Perez,” quite so briskly.

Yet after Sal slammed two homers in the Royals 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays, that’s just about where we’re at.

Yes, this was an excuse to chew up 250 words of this recap on one player and link to my own work, because I am a self-serving millennial, but also just to call attention to it. Some nights, Salvador Perez is the whole offense. So it was on this night, it just wasn’t quite enough.

The Sheriff started the ball rolling with a two-run bomb in the first inning, scoring Whit Merrifield following his leadoff walk. And even when Kevin Pillar’s single in the second to score Teoscar Hernandez, who led off the inning with a double, halved the Royals lead, there was no reason for alarm quite yet.

That’s because Jorge Lopez’s first start, for at least the first few innings, was pretty good. Easy-peasy in the first, brief hiccup in the second, needed a Brett Phillips laser show in the third to cut down Richard Urena trying to score on a Randal Grichuk single but otherwise flashing mid-90s heat and half-decent location, which passes for borderline amazing around these parts.

And then the fourth inning.

Hernandez rapped a first-pitch single to open the frame. Lopez’s second offering to Russell Martin hit him. Pillar blooped in a single to score Hernandez on his second offering. Aledmys Diaz then loaded the sacks back up with an 0-1 single.

If you’re counting, that’s seven pitches, three hits, four baserunners and one run. Still nobody out. Time to see what you’ve got, Guy Included in the Moustakas Trade.

Lopez struck out a flailing Luke Maile on a 2-2 curve, then induced a pop out in foul territory by Urena. Hey, that’s pretty good! One well-placed pitch from getting out of the mess with a tie game.

And then Curtis Granderson clubbed a waist-high fastball into the right-field bullpen. Tie game, meet four-run deficit.

Salvy answered in the home half with a solo swat, his second of the game, but if you’re reading this, you probably follow the Royals and you know what happened from here. Lopez was removed after walking Martin and Pillar with two down in the fourth; he needed 88 pitches to get 14 outs, so he fits right in with this rotation already. New tonight was 2.1 innings scoreless long work by Burch Smith, although he did load the bases in the sixth—in fact, Smith, Tim Hill and Jason Hammel scattered two hits and two walks over the final 4.1 innings.

In the seventh, Phillips legged out a triple and scored when Alcides Escobar dumped a single into center. In the ninth, pinch-hitter Ryan O’Hearn clubbed a monster homer into the night to bring the Royals within a run, but Phillips popped out and Escobar (how does this dude’s number always get called when it’s close and late?) struck out on three pitches. The record is [Rustin Dodd electrocutes my nipples with a car battery].

Your Tweet of Despair

Just heard on #BlueJays telecast that one of the #Royals pitchers was put down in the bullpen. Always sad news. Broke his leg, I guess.

— tincanman (@tincanman2010) August 16, 2018

The Bright Spot: As crappy as the Royals have been this year, THEY haven’t thrown at any young and awesome players recently to my knowledge, although they play in the AL Central so unless they’re facing the Indians, young and awesome players are hard to come by.

The Nadir: Non-Salvy, non-O’Hearn Royals went 3-for-28 with five strike outs, which’ll usually lose you ballgames.

The Next Step: Glenn Sparkman gets his first career start in the stead of Danny Duffy to close out the series against Sam Givgilio, 7:15 p.m. (CT), Thursday. A win and the Royals finish the homestand 3-7!

Blue Jays Vitals

Royals vs. Blue Jays

Offense

Pitching

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:15 pm

Sean Reid-Foley’s first big start comes against the Royals, which has historically been bad news for the boys in blue. Reid-Foley was a top-100 prospect across the board prior to the 2017 season after being drafted in the second round in 2014. It was a rough year for him as a 21-year old in AA, but his second go-round was much better and he’s been very good in AAA. He throws hard, getting it into the upper-90s at times, but sitting a bit lower. When he’s on, his curve and slider both are big weapons and his delivery makes it so righties struggle against him when he’s throwing strikes. They’re hitting .178/.251/.248 against him, so that definitely corroborates that. Lefties didn’t exactly light him up in the minors, but they hit him much better, so the Royals would be well served to get their lefty-heavy lineup in there against him.

One of the few bright spots for the Royals this year gets the ball in this one. He had a mixed bag in his last start. He gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings, but he got more swings and misses than he had in many of his starts and generally pitched with trouble very well, which is something he’d struggled with at times in the past, not all that uncommon for a young pitcher. Keller faced the Blue Jays twice while the Royals were in Toronto and actually didn’t look great against them, but it was pretty early on in his big league career back in April. He gave up a run on four hits over two-thirds of an inning in two appearances.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Borucki is a 15^th round pick from 2012 in his first big league season and he’s done quite well on the surface. His FIP matches well with his ERA, but he’s also allowed six unearned runs in his 48 innings pitched, so things are a little shinier than they appear. He has a pretty limited repertoire with fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball averages about 92 and can really move when he’s on. One thing that is worth noting is that he really throws his slider for strikes more than I feel like is usual, so that’s probably part of the reason that righties have hit him better than lefties this season. A couple things indicate that he might be due for some regression. One is that his strand rate is a bit low at 69.7 percent, which isn’t that low, but he also has allowed a .233/.288/.283 line with runners in scoring position compared with .275/.315/.441 with nobody on. Something likely has to give there. He’s also given up a home run on just 1.9 percent of fly balls. He’s had a really nice start to his career, but I don’t think this will continue. It might against the Royals because they’re bad, but some team is going to be the one to knock him back to reality.

Speaking of regression, it’s bound to come for Fillmyer. A 21 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.1 innings isn’t exactly what dreams are made of. But you can’t take away what’s happened and what’s happened is he’s been really good when he throws his slider with a 33.3 percent whiff rate. His curve has also been a great weapon for him with a .182 average allowed and no extra base hits. The sample is small but good for him. If he doesn’t start to strike more batters out, this is going to come crashing down because he just doesn’t have good enough stuff to assume he’s going to keep getting weak contact, but Fillmyer is exactly what this season and next are for, so let’s find out what he is.

Wednesday – 7:15 pm

Finally the Royals get to face a veteran. Estrada has had two straight subpar seasons. This year, his strikeout rate has dropped back down to previous levels while he’s actually allowing some hits for the second straight year. In all likelihood, age is just catching up to him, but it’s disappointing to see a guy like him who seemed to defy the peripherals for so long. He’s really a fastball/changeup guy still, and even though the changeup isn’t bad, it’s not what it once was. The real issue for him has been his fastball, on which he’s allowed a .257 average with a slugging percentage of .535. For a pitch he throws about half the time, that’s a problem. He’s sort of the opposite of Borucki in that he’s been way better with the bases empty than with runners in scoring position and men on in general. And this probably isn’t too surprising given that he’s mostly a two-pitch pitcher, but he’s allowed a .344/.374/.720 line the third time through, so either the Blue Jays get him out or the Royals get a chance to actually score some late runs.

Burch Smith is scheduled to start this game for some reason. It’s likely because there aren’t really many other options, but at the same time, there have to be other options, right? Since his magical night against the Tigers when he picked up his first win in five years, he’s gone 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in three starts spanning 10.2 innings. He’s walked six, struck out and given up five home runs. In all honestly, a 13.50 ERA seems way lower than I would have guessed. I don’t really have much else to say other than sorry if you have tickets.

Thursday – 7:15 pm

The Royals released Gaviglio in spring training when they had a 40-man roster crunch, and he’s been a solid piece for the Blue Jays, though the magic has mostly run out. After throwing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in early June, he’s made 12 starts and gone 54.2 innings with a  6.09 ERA. He’s allowed 70 hits in that time, so he’s pretty much been the old Gaviglio with one exception – he’s striking hitters out for some reason. He’s also been outstanding at home and a complete disaster on the road with an ERA of 8.10 and a .304/.361/.500 line allowed. If you have to wait for the third time to get to Estrada, it only takes one time to get to Gaviglio. He goes from an OPS of .588 the first time through the order to .985 the second time through and .886 the third time. He amazingly hasn’t faced any current Royals, which I guess isn’t that surprising, but it surprised me anyway.

Sparkman gets to make his first big league start in place of the injured Danny Duffy in this one. When I saw him in spring training, I thought he had an opportunity to be an intriguing middle reliever with maybe eighth inning arm upside, but he was stretched out in his last outing in relief of Smith and pitched pretty well before he ran out of gas in his fifth inning of work. He ended up throwing 68 pitches, so he should probably be good for 75 or so in this one before the bullpen is needed, but it’ll be intriguing to see him get his shot after looking pretty solid (3.77 ERA in 14.1 innings) since his rough debut against the Red Sox.

Man, four games between two teams that aren’t really worried about 2018 seems like it could be a really rough four games of baseball. I’ll say the two teams split only because, well, does it really matter?

Cardinals Vitals

Royals vs. Cardinals

Offense

Pitching

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:15 pm

Gomber is a big lefty who never ranked all that high on prospect lists, but always had success in the minors before his debut this season. He doesn’t have amazing stuff, throwing a decent fastball at around 94 or so along with a really good curve, a changeup and a slider. The curve is his money pitch, but the changeup has been a problem for him in very limited exposure and might be what ultimately keeps him in the bullpen long term. This will be his third start, and it’s been a mixed bag in the previous two. In his last start, he gave up four runs on seven hits over four innings and walked three while striking out five. He made his first start in late July against the Reds and was very good, so it’s hard to say what to expect. He’s probably not going to be on a long leash after throwing just 71 pitches last time out and coming out of the bullpen before that, so even if he’s good early, I’d say there’s a fair chance he’s not long for this one. The sample is limited, but he really needs to be able to get ahead to get to his curve ball on his terms. When he’s behind in the count, he’s allowed a .346/.575/.846 line , but when he’s ahead, that drops all the way to .063/.063/.063. So yeah, don’t fall behind.

Smith’s last two starts have left something to be desired. He’s allowed 11 earned over nine innings in those two starts and given up three home runs and 17 base runners. So that’s not good. He’s fairly lucky that all the potential replacements for him in the rotation are hurt right now because there’s just not really another option. While I believe he’s better suited for starting than relieving because I think his repertoire plays better in the rotation and Ned Yost believes he is because he prepares like a starter, I’m thinking it’s becoming somewhat clear that he’s better suited for the minor leagues. If the Royals are interested in winning this game and not developing (which you could honestly argue either is right), they’d get Smith out early. He’s actually almost decent the first time through the order before allowing a .571/.667/.571 line in 12 plate appearances the third time through.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

The Royals finally get to face a right-handed starter after four straight against lefties. Flaherty has been outstanding this year after a rough debut last season for the Cardinals. He’s striking out a ton of hitters and has only allowed 73 hits in his 96.1 innings, which is obviously pretty great. He works with a fastball at 93-94, a really good slider, sinker curve and changeup. I say the slider is really good because he’s allowed just a .155 average on it and it’s accounted for 60 of his 118 strikeouts in spite of throwing it less than 30 percent of the time. While he’s been good, you can see in the innings pitched and starts he’s made that he just doesn’t get very deep into games. That’s somewhat by design to protect his arm, but even so, he’s only pitched past the fifth inning in nine of his 18 starts and has only pitched in the seventh three times. Between him and Gomber, the Royals have an opportunity to really get into the Cardinals bullpen over the first couple games.

While Duffy has been so much better overall (6-4, 3.41 ERA over his last 14 starts), he’s been roughed up pretty good in two of his last three starts. You can argue that he shouldn’t have been roughed up in his last start because of a bad call on Jake Cave before he allowed a grand slam, but he also put himself in a situation where the bases were loaded in the first place. Duffy had been really good against the Cardinals in his career in his three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA with 22 strikeouts and two walks in 17.2 innings. He hasn’t faced them since 2016, but those are some pretty fantastic numbers. Don’t tell anyone this part, though–he’s actually only faced four Cardinals hitters, so there’s just not much history there.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

Weaver was impressive last season in his 13 games (10 starts), posting a better than four to one strikeout to walk ratio, but he hasn’t really built on that momentum. He’s striking out fewer, walking more and he also hasn’t been a guy to get terribly deep into games. He works heavily with a fastball and changeup, mixing in a curve and a cutter at times. His changeup has been hit decently with seven home runs allowed on it and a .203 ISO, but his curve has been really mashed with a .328 average against it and .609 slugging percentage. Lefties would be wise to go first-pitch curve ball hunting as he throws them a curve 26 percent of the time. They have four hits in 12 at bats including a home run on first-pitch curves, so guys like Brett Phillips, Lucas Duda and Alex Gordon should look to trigger early. Weaver took the loss against the Royals earlier this year giving up three runs on seven hits in seven innings but striking out eight. He gave up home runs to Gordon and Salvador Perez.

Junis finally had a really nice start in his last time out against the Cubs. He gave up just a run on five hits with eight strikeouts in five innings. I’m guessing he would have gone longer, but the short rain delay may have caused a bit of a snag. It was nice to see him get some swings and misses and some strikeouts without getting hit hard like he had in previous starts. Since coming back from the DL, it’s been hit or miss for Junis with 22 strikeouts and nine walks in 19.1 innings but 24 hits allowed. Still, only two home runs in that time is a good sign for him after getting hit so hard by the home run ball before his back injury. This is always the case, but if he has his slider working, he’ll be just fine. If he doesn’t, the Cardinals could easily tee off on him.

The Cardinals are playing well, but I still think the Royals find a way to win this series and take the season series against them.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

As I mentioned when the Royals took on the Twins after the break, Odorizzi is having a strong season in some capacities, such as in his strikeout rate, which is still the second highest of his career, but he’s just walking too many batters, a problem that really arose last season. He doesn’t have the best stuff in the world in spite of the strikeouts, so he gives up his fair share of hits as well. With all those base runners, it’s no surprise he’s having a bit of a rough season. But he, of course, pitched quite well against the Royals a couple weeks back, going six innings and giving up just two hits and one walk and two runs with eight strikeouts. This is a slightly different Royals team he’s facing, so it’s hard to say that what he did then is indicative of what he’ll do in this one. The number that jumps out to me with Odorizzi is his innings pitched. He’s averaging just five innings per start and has only faced one batter after the sixth this season. It makes sense. The third time through the order, he’s allowed a .372/.450/.872 line. But with the Twins bullpen being shaken up a bit, they may find that they run into even more problems with a guy like Odorizzi for the rest of the year.

Fillmyer was really impressive in his start against Detroit a week or so ago, and then came back and held his own in Yankee Stadium against a tough lineup. The issue that I believe he’ll always run into is that he just doesn’t miss enough bats. He missed bats against the Tigers and had a really nice outing, but he only had three swings and misses against the Yankees. This Twins lineup is somewhere in between those two lineups, so I’d say it’s sort of a tossup, but his ground ball tendencies are good to see against a team that likes to lift the ball, so maybe he can have another nice outing here. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins in his career, so history will be made when he throws his first pitch.

Saturday – 6:10 pm

After a really strong year in 2017, it was expected that Berrios would take the next step to stardom in 2018, and while he hasn’t quite gotten there, he’s had a very nice season. He’s upped his strikeouts, lowered his walks and been harder to hit. And when he’s gotten deep into games, he’s taken control, allowing a .140/.222/.246 line from the seventh inning on. That’s impressive for a young pitcher. He uses a four-seamer at about 94 MPH, a two-seamer just a tick slower and a curve for the majority of his pitches, but he keeps hitters honest with a changeup that he uses early in the count to lefties mostly, and it gets hit with four of his home runs allowed on that, all to lefties. I could see a scenario where Berrios tries to mess up some timing on the young guys and Brett Phillips and Ryan O’Hearn both can do some damage if he hangs it. Berrios faced the Royals once this year, on July 9^th, and gave up just one run on six hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts and no walks in a 3-1 Twins win. He’s struggled against the Royals overall in his career, but a lot of that was his rookie season. He’s changed and the Royals have changed.

I was expecting Smith to get lit up in New York and he really didn’t, allowing just two extra base hits in four innings, but the overall line was rough with five runs allowed in four innings. He also was coming off a nice start against the Tigers where he got 16 swings and misses. That’s crazy. His changeup is the key for him. He’s allowed a .208 average on it with a .354 slugging percentage this season and it’s accounted for 16 of his strikeouts this year and just one home run allowed. Twins hitters have hit right-handed changeups very well this season. Eddie Rosario has hit .375 in 40 at bats and five current hitters have a .475 SLG or higher against them. That doesn’t mean he can’t succeed with it, but it’ll be a tough test for him even though this isn’t a great lineup.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

Santana’s season just began because a finger injury wiped out more than half of it, which was a big blow to the Twins chances in 2018. Since returning, he hasn’t been good, but the sample is quite small as you can see above. He has allowed three home runs in 13 hits in those 10.1 innings and only struck out six, but he’s able to control the ball at least with just three walks allowed. Velocity is WAY down in his two starts with his four-seamer averaging just 90 MPH and his sinker averaging 89. Even his slider is only averaging 81-82 after sitting about three miles per hour higher last season. And after allowing a .154 average with a .260 slugging percentage on the slider last year, he’s given up a .385 average and .769 slugging percentage so far. Again, the sample is tiny, but given that he’s coming back from an injury that could impact his ability to manipulate the ball, it’s worth noting. Santana is 7-10 with a 4.71 ERA in 25 career starts against the Royals, but other than Whit Merrifield, nobody has done much damage against him and even Whit doesn’t have much of a sample.

Unlike Fillmyer and Smith, Duffy was coming off a bad start against the Tigers and followed it up with a solid enough start against the White Sox. He didn’t allow a run, but he only went 5.2 innings and he gave up six hits and four walks. He did get seven strikeouts with 17 swings and misses, so that’s a good thing, but the underlying numbers weren’t that encouraging. And he’s throwing a ton of pitches, exceeding 100 for the sixth straight start and the eighth time in his last nine. It’s not that big of a deal when he’s going seven innings, but he’s thrown 219 pitches in his last two starts and only gone 11.1 innings. He handled the Twins easily in Kansas City after the break and actually has been great against them all season, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings over three starts, so this is a matchup that does seem to favor him. Hopefully, it can continue to favor him.

Why not? Let’s call it another Royals series win because they’ve handled the Twins just fine this year and seem to be feeling good about themselves with the new blood in the lineup.

Yankees Vitals

Yankees vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Yankees Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 6:05 pm

Things haven’t gone great for Gray this season, especially in Yankee Stadium where he’s posted a 7.62 ERA with 52 hits allowed in 41.1 innings and struck out just 31 while walking 26. On the road, he’s been his usual self, so this is pretty odd and almost certainly a case of being in his own head. His velocity is fine, averaging around 94 on his four-seamer and his sinker. His curve has been as good as ever and his slider is very good too with those two pitches accounting for most of his strikeouts. But he’s just been hit hard at home and struggled with control there. He did face the Royals earlier this season and went eight innings, allowing just a run on four hits, but that was out of the confines of Yankee Stadium. No Royals have much experience against him, but most have struggled mightily in their limited exposure to him.

Junis came off the disabled list on Saturday night and looked a lot like the Junis we were gushing over early in the season. He only went four innings because of pitch count and he wasn’t especially efficient with his pitches, but he gave up just a run on four hits and threw plenty of strikes and, maybe most importantly, didn’t allow a home run. This’ll be a tough one to build on that with the Yankees offense and park, so I wouldn’t expect too much, but if he does well, it’ll be a huge boost for both his confidence and the fan’s confidence in him (though one matters less than the other). He did pitch against the Yankees earlier this year in Kansas City and actually got the win, allowing just two runs in 5.1 innings against them with no home runs. That was a simpler time for the Royals.

Friday – 6:05 pm

Sabathia has figured out how to pitch as a different guy than he was when he was tormenting the AL Central with the Indians. He now lives on his cutter and slider more than any other pitches. The cutter breaks 90 occasionally, but usually sits around 89 MPH. His slider has been hit a little better than you’d like, but also has been good for his second highest whiff percentage among his pitches, so it’s a plus enough that he keeps using it heavily. It’s really amazing how well he’s managed to limit hard hit balls, ranking in the top one percent of the league with just a 26.9 percent hard hit rate against him. In spite of figuring it out so well, he still is a totally different guy when facing a lineup a third time, allowing a .367/.404/.644 line. That doesn’t seem to be a problem, though, with how deep the Yankees bullpen is. In his career, he’s 21-12 with a 3.15 ERA in 40 starts against the Royals, which doesn’t mean much, but that’s a lot of games.

Keller shook off two horrible starts before the break to pitch very well against the Twins on Sunday and setting a career high with eight strikeouts over seven innings. And he was very pitch efficient as well, throwing just 99 pitches. Now, there was a bad thing in that he gave up his second home run of the season, but that’s still very impressive in 70.1 innings. He’s now made nine starts for the Royals and even with a couple of those starts being on a strict pitch count and struggling for two, he’s averaged more than five innings per and has posted a 3.75 ERA as a starter. Again, the concern remains the lack of strikeouts and too many walks as he’s struck out just 31 and walked 22 in his 48 innings as a starter. His propensity for ground balls will play well in Yankee Stadium, so I’m cautiously optimistic he can build on his last start.

Saturday – 12:05 pm

It’s hard to believe that just two years ago, the Yankees weren’t sure what to do with Severino as they had to shift him to the bullpen. The last two years, he’s been amazing and he’s having a phenomenal 2018 with those shiny numbers you can see above. His repertoire is simple. He throws 98 with his fastball half the time, throws a devastating slider that’s about as hard as Sabathia’s fastball 37 percent of the time and then a changeup for the rest. If anything has been a problem for him, I guess it’d be the changeup, which he’s allowed a .291 average and .400 SLG against, but that’s really splitting hairs because if that’s your worst, you’re pretty darn good. If you’re looking for signs of trouble, he does have a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts and has only averaged five innings per with 25 hits allowed in that time and six home runs. Maybe he’s wearing down? Maybe it’s just a blip. The Royals actually did okay against him earlier this year, scoring three runs on eight hits against him in what was still a loss for the boys in blue. I imagine this one won’t go as well for the Royals, but I guess you never know with that short porch.

If Fillmyer doesn’t hurt his hand punching Brandon Maurer, he’s in line for a well deserved third start after pitching exceptionally well against the Tigers Monday night. He’s pitched very well on the whole this year with a 2.82 ERA and fewer hits than innings pitched, but until Monday, he hadn’t done well with strikeouts. Against the hapless Tigers, he struck out six in 6.2 innings and gave up just one earned run. So far, Fillmyer has done an exception job of keeping hitters from barreling the ball, allowing just one in 64 batted balls. His slider has a whiff rate of 37.8 percent and his changeup is up at 24 percent, so his strikeout numbers could very well be better than they are. I was never impressed with Fillmyer in the minors, but he’s shown enough that he at least deserves some more chances in the rotation for now. And what better way to earn even more chances than by having to shut down one of the best offense in baseball?

Sunday – 12:05 pm

Tanaka has been really uneven this season, but is coming off his best start of the year by far. It was a shutout of the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night when he allowed just three hits and walked one while striking out nine. If that’s a sign of things to come, the Royals are in trouble. He has had a little trouble with the home run ball, so if the Royals still have Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda on the team for this game, maybe they can take advantage of right field against him, though righties shave actually hit for more power against him, so maybe the onus is on Jorge Bonifacio and Salvador Perez. He still gets a ton of whiffs on his slider and splitter, but those numbers are down from previous seasons. Even so, I imagine the Royals will flail wildly a few times in this one and make him look good, but even so, his slider can spin sometimes and that’s what has led to the .273 ISO against it, so maybe the Royals can take advantage there. Like Sabathia, he is really a two-times through the order guy as he’s allowed a .284/.354/.622 line the third time, but again, the bullpen makes it possible to get him out after five pretty much every time.

And completing the tour of starters who had very fine starts in the last turn is Burch Smith, who was outstanding against the Tigers until he seemed to run out of gas in the seventh and then had two runners he left on score on a home run by the corpse of Victor Martinez. Smith is on a nice run in general with a 3.32 ERA in 21.2 innings going back to June 19^th. In that time, he’s allowed just 17 hits and struck out 21 while walking five with one home run allowed. He’s looked pretty good actually at times, so this’ll be a fine test for him. I imagine he won’t pass it, but I’ve been wrong before. He did go three innings against the Yankees in May in Kansas City and gave up just a run with no walks allowed, so maybe he’s got their number? Probably not, but maybe!

In spite of winning more than they’ve lost since the break, the Royals are still bad. And in spite of not winning all their games since the break, the Yankees are still fantastic and WAY better. I think there’s a chance they sweep the Royals, but I’ll be generous and say the Royals find a way to win one game in this series.

Tigers Vitals

Tigers vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:15 pm

Liriano’s season started so strong and it looked like he might be a sneaky good signing, but after a fantastic outing against the Royals in early May, he’s posted a 6.12 ERA over his last nine starts. In the middle of that is a DL stint and he left his last start against the Astros with lower back tightness, so we’ll see if he can get deep in this one. Liriano is a sinker/slider/changeup guy these days, throwing his sinker 40 percent of the time and his sinker almost as much. But the best pitch for him has been his changeup, which has long been his strong pitch. He’s allowed just one extra base hit against hit all season long in 52 at bats. His slider is the strikeout pitch, and he’s been amazing against lefties (.088/.200/.193), so I expect it might be a long night for Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon. My recommendation would just be to sit Lucas Duda because of his work against lefties. He’s been good against the Royals this year with a 2.37 ERA allowed in three starts with just nine hits allowed in 19 innings. Salvador Perez is the lone Royal to have real success against him, hitting .333/.429/.667 in 14 plate appearances.

Ian Kennedy’s injury appears to give Fillmyer his shot to show the big league club what he can do in the rotation. It’s a small sample in the big leagues, but I don’t think he’s really anything to think about for the future, so I’d much rather Trevor Oaks be getting these starts, but for now, I guess he won’t. In AAA, Fillmyer posted a 5.75 ERA with 82 hits allowed in 67.1 innings and a below average strikeout to walk rate. In the big leagues, he’s struck out just seven while walking eight in his 15.1 innings. His stuff played decently in his long relief outings, but the Red Sox hit him around pretty well in his one and only start with three walks and no strikeouts. The Tigers offense is a good opportunity for him to excel, but if he doesn’t, I think that’ll say an awful lot.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Zimmermann hasn’t nearly lived up to his contract, but this season has been very good for him. His peripherals this year look a lot more like he did in his Nationals days when he was a fringe Cy Young candidate a couple times. It might even make him tradeable, assuming the Tigers pick up some of the $60 million or so remaining. One thing he’s done differently this year is he’s thrown his slider a lot more, and it’s been fantastic with opponents hitting just .209 with a .339 SLG against it and it accounts for 39 of his strikeouts this year. On two strikes, opponents have hit just .114 against it, which is just insane. I’m not sure how reliable home and away splits are, but in seven starts away from Comerica, Zimmermann has gone 2-1 with a 4.83 ERA compared to a 2.59 ERA at home. In a similar number of innings, he’s struck out seven fewer batters. He’s had one very good start against the Royals this year but lasted just five innings in a win. Whit Merrifield is 4 for 11 with two doubles against him in his career, so he provides some hope against him.

Smith is getting his chance in the rotation because of Hammel’s bullpen demotion. I have to admit that I don’t think too highly of Smith, but he does have some tantalizing off speed stuff to go along with a fastball that can bust into the high-90s. Still, the command is mostly garbage and his velocity sits much lower than you’d have expected him to. He did have a nice 10-inning run before being put into the rotation a couple weeks back which made some think that he might be turning the Luke Hochevar corner, but I have my doubts. He faced the Tigers once in a relief appearance earlier this year and gave up two runs on two hits with two walks in 1.2 innings. This Tigers team is worse than that one, so he’s going to need to show something or else it’ll look bad for him just as it will have for Fillmyer.

Wednesday – 1:15 pm

I think I say this every time the Royals face Boyd, but I really thought Boyd was going to break out. And he looked like he was going to until his last few starts. Through his first 13 starts, he was 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA with just 54 hits allowed in 75.1 innings. In the six starts since, he’s improved his strikeout rate considerably, but has gone 0-5 with an 8.36 ERA and allowed 32 hits in 28 innings. After allowing six home runs in those first 13 starts, he’s allowed six in the last six. It’s just been a nosedive to his season, which is really too bad for him. Like Zimmermann, the road has been a problem for him with a  1-6 record and 5.77 ERA in 53 innings with seven home runs allowed. I don’t know what this means exactly, but on the first pitch, opponents are hitting just .171 with a .314 SLG, so I guess a good plan of attack is not to blindly attack. While he’s been okay against the Royals this year, in 11 career starts, he’s gone just 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 51.2 innings with just 29 strikeouts and 70 hits allowed. Yikes.

We all know that Duffy has really turned things around, lowering his seasonal ERA to 4.40, which is amazing considering where it was just a couple months ago. I’m a little concerned with the number of pitches he’s been throwing. He’s thrown 100+ in all four starts in July and has been averaging 17 pitches per inning. The upside is that he hasn’t had a ton of stressful frames, but still, it’s a lot of pitches. In his last 11 starts, he’s 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and averaged  105 pitches per start and averaged 16.6 pitches per inning. Duffy has made one start against the Tigers this year, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 4.2 innings while he was struggling earlier this year. In his career, he’s 7-9 with a 4.23 ERA in 118.2 innings. After picking up his first home win of the year his last time out, maybe he’s getting back on track at The K, but his 5.89 ERA with more hits than innings pitched and a fairly disastrous strikeout to walk ratio is a bit troublesome. It’d be good if he could turn that around in this one.

I was going to predict that the Royals get swept in every series until they won one. And now they’ve swept one, so I’m going to give you some honest analysis here. It’ll be hard to keep the winning ways going with Fillmyer and Smith starting the series out for the club. I don’t have much faith in either of them, but I love what Duffy’s been doing over his last couple months. With that in mind, I’ll say the Royals win just one of three, but the Tigers are a big ol’ disaster too, so I guess you never know.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:10pm

Berrios was just named to the AL All-Star team, and he’s having a really nice season to build on his breakout from a year ago. He’s striking out more hitters than last year, walking fewer and he’s been even more difficult to hit. Home runs have been a bit of a problem, and he does hit quite a few batters, so Royals hitters should watch out for that, but Berrios is very good and should pose a problem for a limp offense. The biggest issue for Berrios this season has actually been his changeup, which he doesn’t throw much. He’s given up just seven hits with it, but five of them have been for extra bases, including four home runs. A couple things I find interesting about him are that he has no discernable platoon splits, which is a good thing for him. Also, he’s fantastic at home with a 6-2 record and 2.62 ERA in 10 starts with 77 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. He has a 6.66 ERA in 25.2 career innings against the Royals with five home runs allowed. I imagine that will change in this one.

Duffy has still been pretty good over his last eight starts now, with a 3.44 ERA over 49.2 innings. His last start didn’t go well, falling apart in the sixth inning when he allowed a grand slam to Yan Gomes. The encouraging thing over his last two starts has been fewer walks with just four over his last 12 innings. If he maintains that rate, things will be okay for him in that regard. He didn’t get the swings and misses that he had in previous starts, but even so, it’s nice to see him pitching to the level the Royals have expected of him. He’s faced the Twins once this year and allowed one run over six innings, though he did walk four. He’s 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 18 games and 89 innings against the Twins with Robbie Grossman and Jorge Polanco hitting him quite well in 18 and 12 plate appearances respectively.

Tuesday – 7:10pm

Slegers is seeing big league action for the second season, and after struggling last year, he’s been solid in his first two appearances of 2018. His first appearance of the year was actually against the Royals in the last offensive outburst this team has had, and he went 5.1 innings, allowing two runs on six hits and calming things down to give the Twins a shot to get back in the game. He’s certainly not a top of the rotation starter, but he’s put up good numbers in AAA in each of the last two seasons. If he’s going to be successful in the big leagues, it will be as a control pitcher who somehow keeps the ball in the yard. If he struggles, it’ll be because he doesn’t strike out enough hitters and no amount of control can fix that. His stuff is middling. He throws his fastball at 90-91, a slider that doesn’t move much and a decent looking changeup that has been his best pitch over his career. The sample is so small that it hardly matters, but in his career, he’s allowed eight hits in 20 at bats that end on the first pitch with three home runs. Given his solid control, getting started early in the count isn’t the worst idea.

Kennedy is scheduled to come off the DL for this start, and has been much better over his last few starts, posting a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings over his last five. He’s allowed five home runs in that time, so things aren’t all different for him, but that’s at least encouraging. Of course, the issue I’ve been worried about with him all season is that he just isn’t getting any whiffs this year, which means his once difficult to hit fastball is getting squared up way too often. It’s been a tale of two seasons for Kennedy in his matchups against the Twins with the Royals. In 2016, he was quite good with a 2.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. Last year, he posted a 6.43 ERA in five starts spanning 21 innings and walked 14 batters. Given the way this season is going, I have to imagine that’ll be more like 2017 Kennedy vs. the Twins, but at least he’s had some relatively recent success against them.

Wednesday – 12:10pm

The Lance Lynn signing hasn’t gone great for the Twins, though he’s been much better recently, going 5-3 with a 3.49 ERA in his last nine starts, and that includes a disaster start against the Cubs when he gave up seven runs in 1.2 innings. The biggest issue for him has been walks, and that’s still been a bit of a problem even on his recent run of success. Lynn relies heavily on his four-seamer and his two-seamer, throwing them a combined three-quarters of the time. The four-seamer has been a big problem with nine doubles, a triple and seven home runs allowed on it. The two-seamer hasn’t been as bad with the power numbers, but he’s allowed a .304 average. When the pitches you rely on the most have been hit like that, it’s easy to see why his numbers are subpar. Like Berrios, he’s been WAY better at home, posting a 2.53 ERA over eight starts. Unlike Berrios, the underlying numbers aren’t any better. He’s struck out fewer and walked more at home, but he’s just been more difficult to square up. I’m not sure if that’s anything sustainable or just random chance. He was the winning pitcher in the Twins victory over the Royals this year, going six innings and giving up two runs on six hits with three walks allowed.

Smith gets the chance to start after Jason Hammel finally got demoted to the bullpen. Even though Buddy Bell says that things can always get worse, I don’t think this can be any worse than Hammel’s last starts and Smith did a fantastic job in relief of Hammel the other night. He’s started before in the big leagues and pitched quite well as a starter in the minor leagues last season, posting a 2.40 ERA across three levels and was at his best in AAA. I’m skeptical he can make it work as a starter in the big leagues, but it’ll at least be nice to see some new blood. He faced the Twins twice when they visited Kansas City, and let’s just say that things didn’t go well. He allowed seven runs on five hits with three walks over three innings in those two games. I guess the idea is that this start goes better.

The Royals might win a game, but you won’t find me predicting it.

• I know I’m not the only one impressed with Hunter Dozier in his time in the big leagues, but I haven’t written much about him yet and wanted to. With his first home run on Wednesday, he flashed some power that we just hadn’t seen yet in his short time up, and that’s sort of to be expected. He had a hamate injury last season that famously saps power for awhile and he lost a ton of weight during winter ball because of a virus (I believe). Even with that, he’s hit .264/.339/.396 with a TAv of .244. Of his 13 hits that got past the pitcher’s mound, just four of them have been to the left of center. I know he feels comfortable going the other way, but when he starts to turn on some pitches like he did late Wednesday with his home run, he might become a bit of a force. He is absolutely smoking the ball with an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH and has been crushing fastballs to the tune of a .304 average and .565 SLG. And he’s even fast! Jesse Newell of The Star wrote about that yesterday, so he’s really doing it all. He’s impressed me defensively at first base and I would guess if he sticks there, he’ll become a very good defender, even if it isn’t all that important. The question is what happens when Lucas Duda and, to a lesser extent, Jorge Bonifacio return. I think Dozier has earned a stay in the big leagues. For now, Duda can DH against righties and give Dozier a breather, but I don’t think a mediocre veteran should stand in the way of a guy who might be part of the next wave of Royals winning. That’s a bit away anyway, so I’m excited to see Dozier continue to develop.
• Speaking of Bonifacio, he’s coming back soon, as long as he doesn’t get hurt on his “rehab” assignment that’ll start soon. The question becomes what happens when he gets back. The Royals outfield of Alex Gordon, Jon Jay and Jorge Soler has been pretty productive and Abraham Almonte is the only true center fielder of the group. So it’s a little bit tricky from a roster composition standpoint. Almonte does have an option remaining, so that seems to be the obvious answer to me and they can figure out how to handle center for the time being. I would guess Jay isn’t part of this team for a whole lot longer after Boni gets back, so Almonte could be back relatively soon if the team insists on it. As to who plays where, I think Soler and Bonifacio have to play every day or at least close to it. That means one is likely in right field while the other spends time at DH. As the roster stands now, they’ll have Gordon, Jay, Bonifacio, Soler, Dozier, Duda and Cuthbert to play five spots. The trade deadline will help to work some of that out, but priority needs to be given to Bonifacio, Soler and Dozier (in my mind anyway) with Cuthbert fourth. I’ve mentioned before that I’d be interested to see Soler play a little center. It would probably be a complete disaster, but as far as sprint speed goes, he’s the Royals fastest outfielder and maybe he’d get better reads on balls up the middle. Like I said, it’d probably be brutal to watch, but this season is for finding out, right?
• If it seems like the Royals are a little less swing happy, they are and they aren’t. According to Fangraphs, they are swinging at 33.4 percent of pitches outside the zone, which is the third highest number in baseball heading into Thursday’s action. And they’re led, of course, by Salvador Perez, who swings at 45.9 percent of bad pitches. That’s not getting better. But some Royals are actually doing at least a decent job of laying off pitches. Of the 439 batters who have seen at least 100 pitches, Alex Blandino of the Reds has done the best job with just a 9.95 percent chase rate. That’s ridiculous. Mike Moustakas has been a bit more patient this year. He ranks 84th with a 35.9 percent chase rate, which is way higher than 2016, but still better than 2017. Alcides Escobar, Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier rank 183, 184 and 185 with identical 31.03 percent rates. The best on the team has been Drew Butera with a 23.5 percent chase rate, but predictably Jorge Soler (26.8 percent) and Alex Gordon (27.96 percent) are second and third best. So the Royals as a team are still swinging quite a bit, but at least there are a few guys showing some more patient chops. Soler, Dozier and Cuthbert are the only Royals with regular playing time seeing at least four pitches per plate appearance, so the more things change, the more they stay the same.
• He’s certainly not the first person to go if they need a roster spot, but I’m getting to the point that I don’t think the Royals are giving up on much if they risked losing Burch Smith by giving another reliever in the system a shot. It’s not that I think the Royals should be in the business of giving up potentially talented arms, but I’m thinking Smith really isn’t good enough to make a difference. When the Royals selected him, I was more excited about him than Keller because the idea of an upper-90s fastball with a solid changeup was very appealing to me. Instead, he’s averaged around 94 MPH and that’s been hit hard. I’m not saying they should just dump him, but if they move on from one of the veterans (once they’re off the DL) and Brian Flynn, Smith is a pretty clear choice to me to be the next one out, which is disappointing, but hey, at least we know.