• Jason Vargas just keeps doing it. He went seven shutout innings yesterday against the Rays. He gave up just three hits and walked only one batter while striking out four. What that did was lower his season ERA to a ridiculous 1.01. I mean, come on. His changeup was good once again against the Rays, but his curve was actually his big moneymaker in this one. He got a fair amount of whiffs on it and none of the four that were put in play were hits. It was just another fantastic start for him, and it brings up a lot of questions. My question that I’ve been trying to figure out is what exactly is his free agent value? Guys entering their age-35 season who don’t have especially great stuff don’t tend to have huge value, but at the same time, he’s having a season for the ages so far. As for trade value, I think the Royals are going to see if they can build off the series win, but if they can’t, he’s a guy who could fetch a decent haul from a desperate team. At some point I’ll stop being amazed by him. That point isn’t today.
• The Royals DFAed Christian Colon on Wednesday because they needed to call up a couple relievers to help solidify a tired bullpen. And with that, they left him with one of the most confusing legacies of any player to wear the Royals uniform. On one hand, he was a number four overall draft pick who can’t really be described as anything but a bust when you look at what he did for the organization in his time with the Royals. On the other hand, he scored the winning run in the Wild Card game and drove in what turned out to be the winning run in Game Five of the World Series. How can that guy be a bust given those two accomplishments alone? Then there’s the factor that he probably never fully got the shot he deserved when the Royals were flailing away trying to find a second baseman for years. Of course, part of that is because he wasn’t exactly in tip top shape until this season. It’s a story of ups and downs with the organization for Colon. I hope he can catch on somewhere and get a chance to prove he should play every day. Bust or not, he helped provide some of my greatest Royals memories.
• I wrote on Wednesday about how good Joakim Soria has been this season, and it got me thinking of ways to maximize value for this Royals club. There’s been talk already that the Nationals have interest in Kelvin Herrera to help their struggling relief corps. Setting aside what that deal may look like, I think the Royals might be best served to deal Herrera now and try to get a great deal for him because he offers the acquiring team the rest of this season plus a full year next year. Then they can shift Soria to the closer’s role and get him some saves while he’s pitching so well. In my head originally, my thought was leave him there into next season and let him accumulate more closer value before you deal him at the next trade deadline, but I think you could probably start shopping him as a closer really any time. So if they were to deal Herrera tomorrow hypothetically, trade Soria in July if you can. I just think that’s the best way to get top value for their bullpen pieces who aren’t likely to be a part of the next great Royals team.
• One area that has me really concerned for the future is center field. I think it’s all but certain that Lorenzo Cain is going to be with another team next year, which leaves the Royals with more questions than answers up the middle. The internal options are basically Paulo Orlando, Billy Burns, Donnie Dewees or Bubba Starling. That isn’t exactly an inspiring list. They could absolutely go the route of free agency and bring in someone like Carlos Gomez or bring back Jarrod Dyson or something like that. Another option has emerged in Alex Gordon after he showed off some quality center field skills during the 11 innings or so in Tampa. I’m not sure if he can be a guy you’d rely on every day out there, especially in an expansive park like Kauffman Stadium, but it’s definitely interesting and could be a way to get him back some of the value he’s lost with his offensive struggles. My money is on the Royals going outside the organization for help, but look for an upper level center fielder in any of the Royals trade returns if they do end up selling this summer because that’s a big area of organizational need.

The Royals have hit a little better in May but Ned Yost is still working on how to jumpstart the offense.

So he went back to an old trick and put Alcides Escobar at leadoff. We talked about “Esky Magic” and why it’s silly if you’re taking it seriously.

After the break, we talked about the recent roster moves, primarily the decision to designate Christian Colon for assignment and his unique legacy with the Royals.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

• The Royals are in a bit of a pickle with their roster. It sure looks like Peter Moylan will be the final reliever, but he isn’t on the 40-man as of right now. The Royals also will have to choose between Whit Merrifield and Christian Colon for the final backup infielder spot. As you know, Colon is out of options while Merrifield can still be sent down this season. So in a way, a trade of Colon or even a DFA sort of makes sense because they need to open up the 40-man spot for Moylan. But does it really make sense to lose Colon when he and Merrifield are similar enough that there’s an easy way to keep both? I don’t think it does. So instead, the Royals will have to find another way to get Moylan onto the roster. My vote would go toward jettisoning Billy Burns off the 40-man either by a DFA or a trade. My reasoning is that Burns is causing a roster crunch at Omaha. If the Royals were to remove him from the 40-man, that would allow them to play Hunter Dozier, Jorge Bonifacio, Bubba Starling, Peter O’Brien and Whit Merrifield in the same lineup. All need regular playing time. You could absolutely convince me to DFA Starling instead of Burns, but there’s still at least elite tools with him that could be useful in September. With Burns on the roster, Dozier likely has to play third which leaves no place for Merrifield, and I’ve mentioned my preference is to keep both Merrifield and Colon.
• One of the most common questions I’ve been asked on radio appearances over the last couple weeks is one that people don’t really want to think about. How far back do the Royals have to be around the deadline in order to start trading off parts? That answer isn’t a simple one because there are a lot of factors. If, say, Moose and Hosmer were hurt for a month or two each but both are back, maybe they feel they have a run in them. If they’re six games out but playing at an 88-win pace, the odds are that someone will fall off. But assuming everything is humming along normally – the Royals are healthy, no competitor is playing way over their heads – I think the Royals will have to be at least six games out of a Wild Card spot for them to sell. If they’re 42-46 at the break, it’s time to sell. Now, I have my doubts that they will because they can point to their record at the break in 2013 (43-49) and just out of the break in 2014 (48-50) as proof that this group of players can make a run. Still, that to me is about where it lies. If they’re 43-45, I’d give them a week or two after the break to make a quick run, but I’d still probably end up selling at that point too.
• I’ve also been wondering what the odds are that Mondesi sees the minor leagues again for anything more than a potential rehab assignment. My guess is they’re pretty good because, as you know, I don’t think he’s ready to be a big leaguer. But I also believe that he could be hitting .210/.240/.335 or something like that and stay in the big leagues all year. In a way, his spot on the roster sort of depends on the rest of the roster. If they’re winning and he’s playing good defense, the Royals have shown they’ll stick with an underperforming player (think Omar Infante in general or Alcides Escobar in the leadoff spot). That doesn’t mean it’s the right move, but it’s what they’ve done in the past. If they aren’t winning or they aren’t winning quite enough, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Mondesi in the minors by June 1^st. But what’s interesting is because the upside is there and because Ned Yost is Ned Yost, I think there’s about a 15 percent chance Mondesi is hitting in the leadoff spot by then, too. If he’s hitting something like .265/.305/.390 and Alex Gordon struggles even a little bit, I don’t think Yost would hesitate to get the speed at the top of the order. The Royals best bet, as Craig said yesterday, is for Gordon to get off to a fast start to make sure that he stays at the top of the order because he’s the best option for the team.
• I completely understand that there’s a viewpoint of the 2017 Royals team where they aren’t very good. The starting rotation is decent enough but with considerable downside. The bullpen only has one truly proven commodity in it. The lineup starts with a player coming off his worst year who is now outside his prime years and is littered with what amounts to one hit wonders. But I still really like this team. I see OBP and guys who will work the count at the top (along with some power). I see power in the middle. I see speed at the bottom, though those last three in the lineup until Soler gets back could be a black hole. I see three guys in the rotation who can get a strikeout per inning or thereabouts. I see the other two as quality veterans who can provide innings. I see a bullpen that includes a rookie who took the league by storm last year along with a great situational lefty and a very good situational righty. The two big question marks to me are Mike Minor and Joakim Soria, but if either one can turn in an above average season, I think the bullpen looks really good too. So yeah, I get it if you don’t like this team, but I’m a fan of what I’ve seen.

So, what have we learned?

Frankly, I’m not sure. Danny Duffy was named the Opening Day starter. That makes so much sense it almost falls into the dog bites man category of news, barely registering a blip on the Royal-O-Meter. Duffy was the best Royals starter last year, signed an extension during the winter, and represented the Royals with distinction pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. What’s not to like?

Duffy will be followed by Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel to finish off the opening series in Minnesota. Then, Jason Vargas and previously named fifth starter Nate Karns will take their turn against the Astros in Houston with Duffy making the start in the series finale on Sunday. When the Royals open at home on April 10 against Oakland, Kennedy will be on the mound.

As for the rest of the staff, we know the Royals will carry seven arms in the bullpen. We also know Joakim Soria will get the ball in the seventh, the eighth inning belongs to Matt Strahm, and Kelvin Herrera inherits the closer role. Chris Young, Mike Minor, and Travis Wood are the guys who will chew up sundry innings which mean there’s room for one more. I’ll leave the roster prognostications to Clark, but I’d lean to Peter Moylan for the last spot. We should learn soon, given Moylan has an opt-out on Wednesday. If anything, it seems we’re going to find out how many left-handed relievers are too many. (The answer will be four.)

It seems kind of obvious, yet should the Royals add Moylan, they would have to make a corresponding move to get him on the 40-man roster. Such is the conundrum of roster math.

Still here?

The lineup is the lineup. Which is the lineup. Seriously. At this point, even the last fan on the bandwagon can go around the horn and name the starting eight. Wait a gosh darn second, eight? Yes, eight. Because as usual, the Royals still have some thinking to do before they can lock in their keystone. You know the names. How about some spring training stats!

There is absolutely no reason to read anything into spring training stats. They’re only included here because the Royals have mentioned that spring performance will be one factor they weigh when determining the winner of this amazing competition.

If spring stats were the only consideration, Mondesi would be dropping a deposit on a seven-month lease in Kansas City. The power potential we’ve heard about for years seems so tantalizingly close. Except this is Arizona and the ball tends to fly through the thin desert air. Again, not to read too much into the small sample and spring competition, but it should be noted that Mondesi has just a single walk against 12 whiffs.

With the Royals talking up “inventory” and with Christian Colon and Cheslor Cuthbert out of options, it’s probable they head north with the team, despite coming in third and fourth statistically out of a four-man competition. If either player was exposed to waivers, they would almost certainly be claimed given their salary status and major league experience. If the Royals look to trade either, it seems unlikely the return would commiserate with how the club values either. It would be better than losing someone to waivers, but it’s difficult to imagine a trade of either would net a player who could impact the major league roster in a meaningful way.

So what about Whit Merrifield? Oh, yeah. He has options left just like Mondesi. Makes you think.

The bet here is the Royals roll out of spring with Cuthbert, Merrifield, and Colon as the non-platoon, platoon at second. There will be anger when the Royals option Mondesi, but with the hacktastic methodology at the plate, and given how overmatched he was last summer, he could use some more seasoning in Triple-A. Besides, if he rakes in Omaha, these roster problems always seem to have a way of working themselves out in a respectable way. Colon and Merrifield can play multiple positions and with the addition of Brandon Moss, the Royals have backup coverage around the diamond. Besides, we know how Ned Yost rolls once he finds his lineup. The bench rarely comes into play. There’s enough versatility here the Royals can mix and match if they’re forced to play the depth.

Which is basically where we were when camp opened six weeks ago. Opening Day can’t get here fast enough.

A top two of Zimmer, who is currently assigned to NW Arkansas, and Staumont would give Omaha their best twosome since June of 2013 when Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were fronting a rotation that would eventually win a PCL title.

Race Back On – Despite Raul Mondesi’s outstanding spring, his lingering back problems have re-opened the door open for the second base competition. With that opening, Christian Colon took advantage, going 5 for 9 through Saturday with a home run and a double. That home run was the first spring home run of his career which seems amazing considering the light air that Surprise and other Arizona sites offer. Should Christian or Whit the second base job the Royals could keep Raul in Omaha for much of the year, gaming service time should he stay through July while also helping him refine his pitch recognition and plate approach.

Peter Moylan Photo credit: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports

Final Bullpen Spot – After learning he had diabetes, Scott Alexander has adjusted his diet and turned back into the pitcher that I thought he could be a year ago. A lefty with a good slider and fastball, Alexander is giving Peter Moylan, a very reliable pitcher a year ago, one heck of a battle for that final bullpen spot. With a lack of a 40 man spot opening up unless the Royals make a trade it could prove difficult for Moylan to earn a spot on the Royals opening day squad. With an opt-out date of March 28th available what may decide Moylan’s fate is the battle for the fifth rotation spot as much as his personal battle with Alexander. The Royals bullpen as it stands would be lefty heavy should Nathan Karns secure the fifth starter spot, leaving a possible bullpen of Herrera, Strahm, Soria, Wood, Young, Minor and Alexander. Having a heavily lefty weighted pen versus the Indians would be nice but against teams like the Twins, Tigers and White Sox it could leave the Royals at a disadvantage considering the majority of those team’s power hitters dig in the right-handed batter’s box. Finding a spot for Moylan and his .583 career OPS versus RHH is something the Royals most certainly should be seeking.

Khalil’in it – We are starting to see more and more buzz about Royals 3rd round draft pick Khalil Lee with tweets like these from BA writers J.J. Cooper and Bill Mitchell.

We here at BPKC have been driving the Khalil Lee fan bus since his selection with the 103rd pick last year. More and more of the national writers are starting to come around now and a likely assignment to Lexington, a good hitting environment, while still not even 19 years old should do nothing to temper expectations. There are a couple of intriguing questions to look for in regards to Lee should he break with the Legends.

Do the Royals widen his stance? This is something the Royals have done with a few prospects and while it leads to a more balanced swing, I believe it also saps the explosiveness. If Lee maintains his current patient approach then I see no need to make any changes in his swing until proven different.

How often does he play center? The Royals have moved Marten Gasparini to center field, a spot better suited to his athletic ability and limited baseball background. Will this limit Lee’s playing time in the more premium defensive spot?

Center of Attention – Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweeted out some good information on Donnie Dewees chances to play center field the other day. While a seemingly innocent comment to some, Dewees ability to play center would be a revelation to the organization that lacks playable depth at the premium position beyond Paulo Orlando in 2018. When the Royals made the trade for Dewees, most reports said the speedster with plus speed that lacked the arm to play the position, leaving him as a corner outfielder that lacked pop. If Dewees can handle center then his career prospects take a major step up.

Lacking in Locals – A year removed from a stellar local prep class, the ’17 version is lacking in MLB prospects. At this point, it is extremely doubtful we see a local prepster in the Top 150 picks of this year’s draft. The top “local” selections appear to be college talent in Missouri’s Tanner Houck, local guy via LSU, Alex Lange, and big slugging Jake Burger of Missouri State. The Royals aren’t a favorite to select Burger with the 14th pick, but that doesn’t mean he can’t swing it, hitting .351/.444/.784 entering Sunday’s game with 9 home runs.

Not quite a local guy is Iowa Western’s talented lefty Dan Tillo. A former Iowa Mr. Basketball who works in the 91-93 mph range with his fastball while tossing a low 80s slider that earns plenty of swings and misses (32 in 20.1 IP) at the JUCO level. Lefties that register in at 6’5 235 lbs. with athleticism aren’t everywhere in this game and should intrigue the Royals with a possible buyout of his Arkansas commitment.

Transactions – The Royals traded Brandon Dulin to the White Sox for a player to be named later or cash consideration. The first baseman from a Kansas City JUCO and Lee’s Summit North high school, Dulin hit .258 with 8 home runs in 2016 between Lexington and Idaho Falls after being selected in the 12th round of the 2013 draft.

Reliever Brandon League was released from his minor league contract on Sunday by the Royals. Along with the bullpen crunch at the major league level, the Royals will face critical decisions between the quality of pitchers they have at Triple-A and Double-A. Do they keep multiple minor league signees and push a pitcher or two back to High-A when they deserve a spot on the NW Arkansas roster? How does that affect his development in the future? These are the decisions that organizations are faced with prior to and during the season.

For Royals minor league and draft coverage follow me on Twitter @ClintScoles

Featured Photo – Credit: © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

This week, we looked at the first week of spring training and the early signs regarding some spring training position battles.

There aren’t many, but second base has a trio (a quartet!?) of players who could see time there in 2017. We discuss Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield, and – hey, it could happen – Cheslor Cuthbert.

We also talked about the fifth starter spot. It seems like it’s Nathan Karns’s job to lose, but Travis Wood has a shot, as does Chris Young, and all three have good numbers after one appearance each.

We also covered Kyle Zimmer and what expectations should be going forward. He throws on Saturday and we’re very interested to see how he does.

And finally, we helped to spread the legend of Peter O’Brien, who felled a thousand trees with one swing, rescued the princess, and ran the villains out of town.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

While there are four candidates for the spot, I think a couple can be dismissed pretty quickly, unless one of them has an exceptional spring training. First up is Raul Mondesi. It’s apparent he has talent, but in his first extended major league action last year, he looked completely overmatched, hitting .185/.231/.281 with a rather amazing 48:6 K:BB ratio. It’s likely he starts the season at Omaha, and that’s probably best for all parties—Mondesi can get more seasoning, and the Royals won’t have a drag on the lineup. If he hits well at Omaha or the Royals fall out of the race, then by all means find out what he can do in the majors.

Meanwhile, the Royals keep making noise about Cheslor Cuthbert playing second base. Let me be charitable and say that I have big-time doubts about Cuthbert having the range required to play second base. He was adequate at third last season, but second base is a big adjustment for a third baseman. The fielding metrics weren’t as kind in their assessment (Cuthbert had a Fielding Runs Above Average score of -1.9, but I think most people would agree that he looked better than that). I won’t say it can’t be done, but I’d like to see him play well at second before I think it’s a good idea. Just learning the footwork for a double play pivot seems like it would be difficult, especially at the major league level. Our David Lesky had some ideas for other ways Cuthbert can make an impact for the Royals, and I think those are more likely.

So that leaves Christian Colon and Whit Merrifield. Merrifield might be considered the returning starter after appearing in 81 games last year and amassing 332 plate appearances. Merrifield had an up and down year, hitting .339/.356/.496 in his first 27 games, then .189/.245/.242 in the next 26, at which point he was dispatched to Omaha. When he returned in September, he hit .307/.360/.416 in 28 games. The funny thing was that his BABIP in that first stretch was .402, followed by a .273 in that middle third of his season, followed by a .388 in September. That could be a little concerning—were his overall solid numbers inflated by good luck? Overall, he had a .361 BABIP, which is likely to come down a bit.

Meanwhile, Colon was limited to 54 games and 161 PAs. In fact, in part-time duty over three seasons, he has fewer PAs (329) than Merrifield had just last year (332). Except for postseason heroics (driving in the winning run in the 2014 AL Wildcard game and in Game 6 of the 2015 World Series), Colon hasn’t shown much, especially disappointing for a fourth overall draft pick.

But Colon apparently rededicated himself over the winter, working out regularly with Alex Gordon and adding some muscle. Merrifield did much the same thing last winter, and it paid off with a successful season. I think most of us have been baseball fans long enough to laugh at the “best shape of his life” stories, or at least take them with several grains of salt. But perhaps Colon will be able to improve his offensive game.

Defensively, both Merrifield and Colon seem about equal to me. I dislike using partial-season defensive numbers since the sample size can be small, but Merrifield was 4.5 FRAA last year while Colon was at 5.6. I suppose the fact that Colon can and has played some shortstop in the majors shows that he’s got a slight edge on Merrifield with the glove. But is it big enough to overcome Merrifield’s apparent offensive advantage?

The thing is, the Royals’ projected lineup looks fairly solid, as long as the main cogs are performing as they are capable of. It’s not the best lineup, but a group with Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez, and Brandon Moss ought to be able to put up some runs (we’ll just take anything Alcides Escobar contributes as a bonus). That could give the Royals the freedom to emphasize defense at second base, giving Colon an edge. If the offense falters and Colon is not hitting, giving Merrifield more playing time is an easy possible fix.

The good news is that both players, based on PECOTA projections, look like they can be contributors this season. Merrifield’s projection is for 0.6 WARP, but in 346 plate appearances. Colon’s projection is for 0.5 WARP, but in 219 plate appearances. Put them together and you have a full-time second baseman at 1.1 WARP, which is nothing to write home about but at least is a positive contribution, given that their combined salaries probably barely crack the $1 million threshold. That’s better production than the Royals got from Omar Infante at a fraction of the price.

Perhaps the ideal scenario for the Royals is that Colon hits well enough to earn and keep the starting job. That allows Merrifield and his positional versatility to be a super-sub. That in turn would probably allow the Royals to keep Cuthbert (who is out of options and would likely be lost if the Royals tried to sneak him through waivers and back to the minors) on the roster. This scenario would give the Royals a bench of Merrifield, Cuthbert, Paulo Orlando, and Drew Butera. The only downside there is not having a left-handed hitter, but Ned Yost doesn’t pinch-hit much anyway. He will pinch-run, though, and Merrifield and Orlando are both good candidates for that.

While the second base battle is an interesting one to watch this spring, it’s good to know that the Royals will likely have a contributor there this season. And if one candidate falters, the other one is likely going to be able to produce. The Royals have plenty of options, and that’s always a good thing.

• I didn’t see the discussion on MLB Network, but I saw the fallout on Twitter between Ken Rosenthal and Brian Kenny. What I surmised is that Rosenthal was talking about how important chemistry is while Kenny seems to believe that it sounds like something that would have and should have been written 40 years ago. I like stats. I think stats are extremely important. I like to study even the most complex ones to try to gain a better understanding of the game. Maybe eight to 10 years ago, I was basically only about the stats. Sure I watched the games intently, but I was all about citing OPS+ or whatever was cool at the time. I still love stats and I love digging into ones like DRA and TAv and I really enjoy diving into the PECOTA rankings, as wrong as I think they are. But stats aren’t all there is. I’ve learned that. Chemistry matters way more than I used to think it did. I probably would have gotten to this conclusion anyway, but following the 2013-2015 Royals and getting a chance to be in that clubhouse a few times taught me the lesson even quicker. Yes, it takes talent to win. I don’t care if all 25 guys love each other if they aren’t especially good at baseball, but if you show me two teams with honest to goodness talent and one has so-so chemistry and one is the Royals, I’ll take my chances with the Royals. It’s not that the statistics of the game aren’t important, boy they are. But these are human beings playing a game and that’s easy to forget sometimes. There is a human element.
• I’m going to say something here that I’m not sure I’ve ever actually written. I’m intrigued by Christian Colon. Prepare yourself for a reference to him being in great shape, maybe the best of his life. He apparently worked with Alex Gordon this winter. I think we can all agree that was something of an issue for Colon before. While he will never be confused for a gold glover, he did do some very solid work at second base last season in 247 innings and I think there’s more in his bat than he’s shown at the big league level. In his first 168 plate appearances, he hit a solid .303 with a .361 OBP. What intrigues me is the walk rate – 8.3 percent – for a guy who isn’t playing every day. He’s never shown much pop in the minor leagues, but he has shown more than we’ve seen in the big leagues. He has a .100 career ISO in the minors, but does at least have 132 extra base hits in 561 games at the minor league level. Maybe with a new physique, he can keep up the plate discipline (he swung at 28.5 percent of pitches outside the zone last year), add a little pop and continue to play solid defense at second base. I know a lot of people loved Merrifield last year. He was fun to watch. But I wonder if, given his age, pedigree and physical condition, we might be in for Christian Colon’s career year. I hope he gets a legitimate shot to win the job.
• I haven’t really given my thoughts on the Travis Wood signing yet, so I’ll get them out of the way here. I think Wood is an average big league pitcher, but I do believe he makes the 2017 Royals better, and probably the 2018 team as well, though that’s of less importance. He doesn’t strike out enough hitters and he walks too many, but he provides versatility to the pitching staff that they greatly need. I know you could argue that Chris Young does the same thing, but I’m not exactly counting on anything from Young this season. What Wood can do is be a really good bridge guy in the middle of that bullpen to get to the back end, no matter who it is in there. He’s going to be given a shot to win a job in the rotation. I hope he doesn’t win it because I don’t think he’s that good as a starter. I also believe that if the Royals are going to win, they’re going to need some pitcher to step up and provide middle of the rotation or better numbers. I don’t think Wood can do it. Nate Karns would be the guy he’d beat out if he does make the rotation, and I think Karns is a far better option to give that. So I like the signing. The money makes sense. But I also hope he doesn’t start many games for the Royals this year.
• I feel like I talk a lot about payroll in this space, but it’s interesting to many, so I guess that’s okay. We all know that the Royals have stretched the payroll in 2017 already to what will be a level never before seen on opening day. They’re now projected to be over $140 million, and that’s an awful lot of money. What I find interesting is that after this offseason’s activity loaded with backloaded contracts, the Royals 2018 payroll is shaping up to be actually somewhat similar to this year’s. As it stands now, the Royals have $80.75 million guaranteed to nine players. There are a couple tricky situations here. Jorge Soler is guaranteed $4 million in 2018, but he can opt in to the arbitration process. I’m betting he does that because I think he can earn more. And Ian Kennedy has an opt-out in his deal, but if he doesn’t opt out (and I don’t think he will), he gets paid $16 million. So in my mind, I’m taking Soler out and putting Kennedy in and getting to $92.75 million for nine players already committed. Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Nate Karns and the aforementioned Colon are in the arbitration process, so with those 13 players, I have payroll estimated at $111.25 million with 12 spots needed to fill. Obviously things could change. Players could be dealt and all that, but the idea of a payroll collapse after the 2017 season doesn’t seem as likely as many had believed when this offseason began.

With that outfield, the position player side of the roster looks like it could be good to go. However, if you look at the make-up of the roster, you’ll see a bench that likely includes Drew Butera, Christian Colon, Paulo Orlando and Billy Burns. That’s three right-handed bats with Burns a switch hitter, but he’s a better hitter from the right side. I think the Royals have a big need for a bench player who can hit left-handed. Earlier in the offseason, I was thinking they needed a right-handed bat in the middle of the order, but I think they theoretically accomplished that with Soler.

So there are two places the Royals could look to find that left-handed bat, and they could do both and be just fine. The first is the obvious DH spot where they could use the role to give players half-days off and run with Cheslor Cuthbert, but the more I think about it, the more I wonder if it wouldn’t be a good idea to find out what Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind or Brandon Moss might want. None of these guys are much more than strong-side platoon bats, but they all provide additional power that the team could use.

The other name, and this is the one that I think makes the most sense to this roster, is Stephen Drew. He hits left-handed, has some pop, and can actually fill in at shortstop, which is something the Royals have lacked over the last few seasons. Last year, he hit .266/.339/.524 with the Nationals. He’s not in any way consistent, but he’d be a nice fit on this team. Yes, they’d have to find something to do with Colon, which likely means they’d get very little for the World Series hero, but what can you do? I think Drew might actually make the most sense of any remaining free agent for the Royals.

To me, the trade for Karns also symbolizes the fact that the rotation appears to be set. I know the Royals have said that Karns would compete for a spot in the rotation and could fit in the bullpen as well (which I agree with), but I have a hard time believing that he won’t be in the rotation when the current competition for the final starter is between Chris Young and Mike Minor. To me, a rotation of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas and Karns has some decent potential on paper. The odds aren’t in their favor to be the best rotation in the league, but they can certainly do some damage.

I think one of the biggest impacts of the move is it allows Matt Strahm to at least begin the season in the bullpen. He’s definitely not a sure thing, but what we saw from him over the final two months of the season tells me that the Royals have a real weapon there to pair with Kelvin Herrera at the back of the bullpen. I’ve made my thoughts clear on where I think Strahm should be, and this seems like it allows that to happen. Now, the “sure” things in the bullpen are Herrera, Strahm, Joakim Soria and probably Brian Flynn along with the possibility of Young and Minor.

It’s clear the Royals still need something in the bullpen. They’ve made a slew of minor league signings that could impact that. The most promising one to me is Chris Withrow, who had Tommy John surgery a couple years ago and made it back last year with the Braves. Before the injury, he struck out 71 batters in 56 innings and gave up just 30 hits. That’s some legitimately fantastic stuff in order to get those numbers. If he can continue to progress in his return, he could be the third big weapon out of that bullpen. He’s also a minor league signing, so you can’t just expect that, but at least it’s a real possibility. Bobby Parnell, Brandon League, Al Alburquerque and, ugh, Jonathan Sanchez are some of the other guys who could make an impact for the big club.

I’d still be on the market for a reliever. I thought the Royals might be able to trade Dyson for one who could make an impact, and I guess you could argue they did, but they still need more. The names are the names we’ve talked about forever. Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar probably headline the list. If I had to bet, I’d say one of them comes back, but I guess we’ll have to find out. We’ve talked about the other names as well, but Neftali Feliz, J.P. Howell and Sergio Romo are some names that stand out to me as possibilities.

We’re now just over five weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting and the Royals roster is beginning to look a little clearer. There are still a few more moves left to make to help round this team out to potentially give them the chance to compete for the postseason and the Central division.

• I still think Cheslor Cuthbert is on the trading block. Reports came out that he looked “solid” at second base during instructs, which is kind of a nice thing to see. And then you realize that it seems much of his work was done on the side so there isn’t much in the way of scouts getting to see him in action. I guess it could go both ways here, but I really think that’s posturing to make him appear more versatile in a deal. The reason it could go the other way is they could have put him out at second base in the eye of the public and put him through some drills that even a guy who likely can’t play second base couldn’t fail. But that’s kind of a longshot. With Cuthbert out of options and Moustakas coming back, I’m not saying they’re definitely going to trade the guy, but talking up his versatility that nobody can really verify seems like they’re at least putting him out there, and I think that’s smart. I’ve had in my head a deal with Cuthbert to the Giants for Eduardo Nunez and maybe another piece. I’m not sure if that’s light or heavy or where it is for Cuthbert, but for some reason, that’s been floating around since the end of the season. I know Nunez is a guy the Royals like, so maybe that’s where it came from.
• News came out on Wednesday that Kyle Zimmer had completed his four-week throwing session following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and that he’d be ready to go for spring training. On one hand, I’m incredibly optimistic that the Royals finally found what it was that was ailing him and now he can finally harness his full potential and be a quality starter for the Royals as soon as 2017. On the other hand, Zimmer threw 5.2 innings in 2016. He threw 64 innings in 2015. You have to go back to 2013 when he threw 108.1 innings to find a respectable innings total for him since being drafted in 2012. He’s thrown 222.1 minor league innings since July 13, 2012. With the caveat that this could change after surgery, if Zimmer is healthy, I think he’s likely one of the four best starters for the big league club in 2017. But that’s just it. It’s always an “if” with him. This isn’t any new information, but the Royals just cannot count on him at any point moving forward. But what that does is it puts them and the fans in a pretty quality situation because the Royals know they can’t count on him so they’re going to proceed without him at the top of their plans. And, in turn, that means there’s no disappointment, only optimism. If Zimmer is healthy, I’m confident he will contribute. I can’t imagine many teams have a guy like that who is nearly a guarantee to be a positive if he’s on the field and if he’s not, there was nothing expected of him. So there’s the positive.
• This World Series, in the early going at least, is shaping up like the 2014 series. That one, you might recall, went seven games. Any series that goes seven games is likely going to be thought of as one of the better World Series to be played just by sheer volume. And yet, if you think back to that series, it wasn’t actually all that competitive game to game. In game one, the Royals lost by six. In game two, they won by five. Game three was a very good game that came down to the last pitch, but then the Royals lost by seven in game in four and by five in game five. And then the Royals won by 10 in game six! Of course, game seven being a classic battle helps to make the series great. Anyway, I think we’re kind of heading there with this series, and I’m not sure it’s going to change because I really hate the matchup for the Indians in game three with Josh Tomlin against Kyle Hendricks. Of course, it’s baseball, so you never know what’ll happen, but unless the wind is gusting in at Wrigley (and it could be), I just think the Cubs are going to tee off on Tomlin and Hendricks will be his usual self. I think there’s a pretty good chance we see this series go six or seven games, but I’m wondering if we’ll be lucky to see even the two competitive games we saw in 2014.
• It’s pretty bold to make a prediction about the 2017 team in October 28, but I’m going to do it anyway because that’s just how I roll. But I am going to put a caveat on this prediction because it is October 28. If the Royals can either re-sign Kendrys Morales or can pick up someone else with similar power, they will break their team single season home run record next year. That record was set in 1987 when they hit 168 homers. Yes, that’s the team record. No, that’s not surprising that it’s that low. But here’s why I think they will. Let’s assume Morales is on the team because it’s easier to use him than a hypothetical player we don’t know about yet. The Royals will have five players who I think will hit 20 or more home runs in 2017 and one more who I think could. Morales, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez seem like the guys who will do it. Perez, Morales and Hosmer did in 2016 and Gordon and Moustakas almost definitely would have with a full season. I’m thinking something like 22 for Perez, 28 for Morales, 22 for Gordon, 30 for Moustakas and 25 for Hosmer. That alone is 127. I feel like if Lorenzo Cain is healthy, he’ll get 15-20. Let’s call it 15 to be safe. Now they need 27 homers from the rest of the rest of the roster. If Escobar can hit seven and Merrifield can hit five, they’ll basically have about 1,100 plate appearances to hit an additional 15. It’s a tall task, but I’m saying they’ll do it. And I apologize in advance for when they hit 103 as a team.
• We had a conversation in the BP Kansas City headquarters the other day that somehow led us to Jeff George. Yes, the quarterback. We talked about him as a bust, and while I agreed whole heartedly that he is and was a bust, I wondered if he was one of the best busts of all time. So that got me to thinking about who the best bust in Royals history was. You could argue Christian Colon despite getting the hit that ultimately won the World Series. You could argue Luke Hochevar despite his postseason heroics that included getting the win after two scoreless inning in game five of the World Series. I think you could argue Clint Hurdle, a career .276/.353/.432 hitter with the Royals. Who else? I’m curious what others think here. I wasn’t around for the early days of the Royals, so maybe I’m completely missing someone who is obvious.