Ryan O’Hearn – Credit Jake Rose Photography

Not really based on last year’s numbers as he surprisingly struggled at Triple-A Omaha before a roster crunch sent Ryan O’Hearn to Double-A but the last time he repeated a level he dominated before a promotion. That promotion may not be waiting for him this time through but it still shouldn’t stop O’Hearn from a nice bounce-back season. The home park he plays in suits his swing quite well but things just didn’t go his way as exhibited in his .229/.331/.416 line at Werner Park. Perhaps it’s a player reaching his limits but he didn’t give the appearance of a player overexposed and the peripheral stats don’t give that appearance either. With that I expect him to make some minor adjustments as he did prior and exhibit the strength and power he’s shown in the past.

Quite likely the biggest surprise on the farm last season came from right-hander Andres Machado who after struggles in the low minors and Tommy John surgery had a career-altering season. One of just a handful of Royals starters on the farm that averaged better than a K per inning while also keeping his walk rate under 3 per 9. He did this with a rise in velocity to the mid-90s, a late-biting slider and a changeup that showed decent arm speed. Over Machado’s last 11 starts in the minors, he attacked the zone at a 65% clip while striking out 24% of the hitters he faced over 59.2 innings or 9.4 per 9. After a strong finish and more time to develop his secondary pitches, I believe he has an opportunity to zip around some better-known pitchers ahead of him in the farm.

At Double-A Nicky Lopez makes logical sense for him to continue his quick ascension to Kansas City. Once at NW Arkansas, last season the shortstop’s numbers fell off, hitting just .259/.312/.293 in 59 games there, but it wasn’t about being overmatched as his k-rate went up just 4% to a still ridiculously low 11.5%. The ISO rate fell off considerably to just .034 which was something he wanted to address in the Arizona Fall League and did well, pushing it to .185 against some of the best prospects in baseball. Those changes should improve his ISO and allow him to improve his BA and walk rates closer to the numbers he put up in Wilmington prior to the promotion.

Scott Blewett (Photo Credit Jen Nevius)

Trying to figure out which pitcher will pitch at Double-A or Triple-A is tough enough and then trying to figure out who may breakout of the pack is anyone’s guess. With that said the combination of the most talented pitching prospect and upside in the Royals system will likely start 2018 at NW Arkansas. If Scott Blewett was to take a similar path to building his draft partner Foster Griffin then a bounce up in his age 22 season then he could rocket up the Royals prospect rankings. The stuff is there with a mid-90’s fastball, hammer curve and a changeup that has slowly improved into a more usable pitch and with that stuff he hinted at bigger things on the horizon with a pair of double-digit strikeout performances and a complete game last season. Working with pitching coach  Steve Luebber should help Blewett find that consistency start to start the way it did with Jake Junis, Yordano Ventura, and Griffin.

A prospect that the Royals fans should be paying much more attention to will be heading to Wilmington for an opportunity to push his stuck up in a significant fashion. Most know that Rivera was named Royals Player of the Year in Lexington and put together a solid showing with his .310/.364/.468 overall line there but what people don’t realize is just how consistent he was over the final three months of that season, hitting .328/.393/.486 while cutting his k-rate to 15% and slightly improving his walk rate slightly over the seasonal 6% mark. Not known for power yet Rivera’s better than .300 hitting against pitchers from either side should fit well in Wilmington which tends to play better for average than it does power.

Had he stayed healthy last season Gerson Garabito would likely have already pitched for the Wilmington Blue Rocks. When healthy and on the mound he is as talented of a pitcher as the Royals have in the low minors, exhibiting three solid pitches in his fastball, curve, and change. Hitters hit just .184 last season versus the right-hander with lefties hitting just .183 while he improved his k-rate to 23.5% and was 25% prior to the injury, helping him reach a near 4/1 K/BB ratio. If he stays healthy in Wilmington Gerson has the stuff and control to reach Double-A where his low 90’s velocity will present a larger challenge. A reliever to keep on eye on this year in Wilmington could be Cody Nesbit, a hard-throwing sidearmer who struckout 36% of the hitters he faced at Low-A Lexington last year in 18.2 innings.

Despite a slash line that was less in Arizona than some may have wanted Nick Pratto showed an ability to elevate the ball, hitting flyballs at a 42% clip and line drives at 24%. Those numbers should translate into big numbers in the South Atlantic League where he will play half of his home games in the league’s third-best home run park.

The Royals Low-A squad in Lexington has had the worst ERA in the league the last three seasons and while I don’t expect them to be vastly improved I do think a rotation featuring Dan Tillo and Evan Steele could be an improvement. As for the breakout performer, Tillo feels like the most likely name here with his mid-90s fastball and plus slider. At the low levels, he can lean on those two pitches, generate groundball (69% in Burlington) and refine his stuff. His ability to add and subtract from the slider while repeating his mechanics should give him a shot to get to Wilmington at some point this season.

Featured Photo  Bill Mitchell Baseball America

J2 Signing Day Notes – A Royals official gave me a little information on the two Venezuelan signees for the July 2nd international signing period. Both players are right-handed hitters with average speed. The Royals scouts believe Jesus Reyes is a plus defender at shortstop and more of a situational hitter. While currently Frank Howard plays shortstop, the Royals are thinking of moving him to catcher where his plus arm, plus hands and good footwork could help him. Any move to catcher will take time but it sounds like Howard is up to it and we can expect to see the two teenagers in the DSL during the 2018 season.

HR Roll Call: Raul Mondesi (9), Logan Moon (4), Angelo Castellano (3), Jonathan McCray (2), Seuly Matias (2), Jesus Atencio (1), Ismaldo Rodriguez (5)

BPKC Hitter of the Day – Jonathan McCray 3-5, 2R, 2b, HR, 2 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day – Eric Skoglund 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 1-3 GO-FO, 66p/47k

Colorado Springs Sky Sox 5, Omaha Storm Chasers 4

The Chasers are probably happy to see this run of back to back series with Colorado Springs over after losing for the eleventh time in thirteen games against the Brewers affiliate on Monday.

In this one, the Chasers built a 4-1 lead with starter Eric Skoglund working five innings of one run ball with eight strikeouts on 66 pitches. The Chasers took a 4-1 lead with a two-run sixth inning that featured a Frank Schwindel run-scoring double and Mondesi’s second RBI of the game in the seventh.

Chasers closer Malcolm Culver’s struggles versus Colorado Springs continued with the righty allowing the game’s tying run to cross in the eighth and the winning run to come home in the ninth, while giving up three hits in the process. The blown save for Culver was his third of the season, his second consecutive against the Sky Sox.

Boxscore Link

Bubba Starling 2-5, 2K
Raul Mondesi 1-3, 2R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB (17), E (6)
Josh Staumont 2.1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 0 K, 3-2 GO-FO, 54p/25k

San Antonio Mission 5, NW Arkansas Naturals 3

A four-run fifth inning did in the Naturals in game two of their series with the Padres affiliate.

NW Arkansas jumped out to a 3-0 lead with a RBI single in the first by Nick Dini and a two-run home run in the second by Logan Moon. The team couldn’t expand on that lead though, failing to capitalize on the 12 hits on the day.

After starter Ashton Goudeau worked around leadoff hits in the second, third and fourth. However he couldn’t perform the magic act in the fifth, allowing four straight singles before a two-out double to drive in the Mission’s fourth run of the inning. That run would be enough but the Mission would add an unearned run in the eighth off Richard Lovelady for good measure to secure the win.

Boxscore Link

Nicky Lopez 1-5, R
Logan Moon 2-4, HR, 2 RBI
Richard Lovelady 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 24p/17k

Salem Red Sox 3, Wilmington Blue Rocks 2 F/12

The Rocks outhit and outwalked their opponent, but couldn’t get it done with runners in scoring position to drop the series finale versus Salem.

The Rocks took a 2-1 lead in the fifth inning on a Chris DeVito double that plated Brandon Downes. The Wilmington starter, Jared Ruxer, held that up through his seven innings of one-run ball, but reliever Jacob Bodner gave up a two out run-scoring double in the eighth that tied the game.

After Wilmington threatened but came up short in multiple innings, Salem took a lead in the twelfth with a pair of singles after a walk. The Rocks would get a leadoff walk from Downes to start their half of the inning, quickly move him to third on Chris DeVito’s single, but three of the next four hitters would strikeout around a walk to end the Rocks night at 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position.

Boxscore Link

Jared Ruxer 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 7-7 GO-FO, 96p/61k
Brandon Downes 1-3, R, 2BB
Chase Vallot 2-6, 4K

Lexington Legends 6, Greenville Drive 4 F/10

The Legends built an early 4-1 lead only to watch it evaporate which sent the game into extra innings.

The Legends shortstop Angelo Castellano homered in the first inning to put Lexington up 1-0. The Legends added another run following a Gabe Cancel leadoff single in the second before getting two runs in the fourth on a pair of RBI singles by Manny Olloque and Marten Gasparini.

The Legends went cold, going scoreless for the next five innings which gave the Red Sox affiliate an opportunity to get into the game. The Drive pushed starter Arnaldo Hernandez out of the game before he could qualify for the win, getting after him for seven hits in 4.2 innings while driving his pitch count up to 95 in that time. With Hernandez out, Greenville evened the game up with a solo home run in the sixth and an earned run in the seventh after a Cancel error.

The game went to extras where Emmanuel Rivera would connect on a two-out triple to give Lexington the lead and the eventual win.

Boxscore Link

Gabe Cancel 2-4, 2R, 2SB (6)
Marten Gasparini 2-4, RBI, CS (8)
Cody Nesbit 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 19/10k

Ogden Raptors 7, Idaho Falls Chukars 6 F/10

Starter Geoffrey Bramblett struggled early, allowing three runs in the first before settling in somewhat to give his team 6.1 innings. The Chukars scored single tallies in three of the first four frames to pull within a run before reliever Christopher Marte allowed a pair of runs, one inherited, to cross in the seventh inning.

Down three, Idaho Falls tied things up in the ninth with a run-scoring double by Jonathan McCray, a Vance Vizcaino RBI hit and a wild pitch that plated a run. The game went to extras where the Raptors walked things off with a two-out run-scoring single.

Boxscore Link

Dalton Griffin 1-5, 2b, RBI
Christopher Marte 3.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 4-3 GO-FO, 59p/38k
Vance Vizcaino 2-5, R, RBI

Princeton Rays 15, Burlington Royals 6

A pair of Burlington pitchers were knocked around Monday in the rubber game of their three-game set in Princeton. Starter Nathan Webb gave up eight hits and nine runs in just 3.1 innings to help the Rays squad jump out to a 10-0 lead. The Royals battled back, getting six runs over the final three innings with the help of a pair of home runs by Seuly Matias and Jesus Atencio. However, those runs were followed by five more Rays runs in the blowout series win.

Boxscore Link 

Seuly Matias 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, BB
Michael Gigliotti 1-3, R, 2 BB
Jordan Floyd 2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 45p/29k, 5-3 GO-FO

AZL Mariners 7, AZL Royals 5 F/10

The Royals defense and bullpen let a lead get away against the M’s. A three-run fourth inning that featured an RBI hit by Nick Pratto put the Royals out in front, a lead they held until the ninth inning. Reliever Daniel Garmendia gave up the game-tying home run that pushed the game to extras.

In extras, Garmendia allowed the free baserunner to come home and two more on a one-out double while the Royals could score just the free runner in their half of the inning.

Boxscore Link

Nick Pratto 1-4, R, 3b, RBI, BB
Esteury Ruiz 1-4
Sal Biasi 4 IP, 2H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 2-2 GO-FO

DSL Astros 5, DSL Royals 1
DSL Astros 9, DSL Royals 3 F/7

The DSL Royals lost their suspended game that they resumed against the Astros, then lost the second game as the Astros got after the Royals normally reliable pitching staff for nine runs.

Boxscore Game 1
Boxscore Game 2