And they’ve been this underwhelming even while becoming the first team ever to have four pitchers reach the 200 strikeout mark. Their top four starters are top notch, but a struggling bullpen has led to some issues. The potential is there for true greatness with Brad Hand, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, but it just hasn’t been there due to both injuries and poor performance. It’s worth noting that these four games will be tune-up games for the Indians, so their starters aren’t likely to go deep into games, though I guess you never know.

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Thursday – 7:15 pm

This was pretty much inevitable for Tomlin at some point and the fact that it has held off this long says a lot about him. He doesn’t have good stuff and spends so much time in the strike zone, so eventually he was going to bitten by the long ball more than he had before and this season he’s allowed 24 homers in just 65.2 innings, a total that might make Chris Young blush (sorry, Chris). He still has phenomenal control, but he’s just not missing nearly enough bats and he’s getting hit awfully hard with a barrel rate of 11 percent, nearly double the MLB average. It’s bad. He’s been in and out of the rotation in September, so he’s only a few days removed from throwing 76 pitches in a game, which means if they decide to go awhile with him, he can probably do it. But that said, do you really want him to? He’s allowed a .365/.412/.738 line to lefties while Ryan O’Hearn has absolutely mauled righties. If you’re picking up what I’m putting down and you play daily fantasy, you’re welcome. Of course if you didn’t already know that, you probably shouldn’t be wasting your money.

Sparkman will get his third career start in place of Jorge Lopez who was shut down after his rib injury and bad start his last time out. I do believe Sparkman can be a worthwhile reliever and am doubtful of him long-term in the rotation, though, so I guess it’s similar to a Lopez start. He relieved Lopez in his last outing, throwing 55 pitches over four innings and generally being okay, though the lack of swings and misses has me concerned about his future in any role. Still, it’s nice to see the mid-90s fastball and you’d think a secondary pitch could emerge that we just haven’t seen yet from him in the big leagues. This will be his first time going against Cleveland, so it’ll be a nice test for him even if he does only get bits and pieces of the regular lineup.

Friday – 7:15 pm

I feel like a lot of people are surprised at the season Clevinger is having, but if you watched him last year, you shouldn’t be. The stuff plays, and now that he’s got his walk rate under control, it plays even better. He’s deceptive too, which makes him incredibly difficult to hit. So while it’s surprising that he’s gotten to this point, I don’t think it is based on last season. He’s also been hit harder by lefties than righties, though not to the extent of Tomlin. That said, 13 of the 21 homers he’s allowed have been to lefties and 33 of the 58 extra base hits. He’s had some first inning struggles, allowing six home runs and 17 runs in his 31 starts, and the Royals know all about that having scored three in the first against him a few weeks ago at home before getting shut down by him the rest of the way. Including that start, he’s faced the Royals four times this year and gone 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA with just two home runs allowed (to Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez). So my guess here is that the Royals will be happy if they do treat this as a shorter tune-up.

If we’re being honest, I’d have never guessed that Kennedy has thrown more than 100 innings this season. I actually forgot he existed while he was on the disabled list. All that said, it’s hard to argue with the results in his three starts since he’s been back. He’s gone 19 innings, allowed 17 hits, six runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and five walks and posted a 1.89 ERA. He’s generally actually been really good. Of course, he’s been facing teams with nothing to play for but the offseason, but still, it’s better to be good in your only sample than bad. He’s faced Cleveland once this year and was outstanding, going six shutout innings and striking out eight to pick up his first win of the season. It was roughly four degrees that day, so that helped, but again, good results are better than bad.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

Kluber probably isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he definitely belongs in the conversation as he currently leads the American League in innings pitched and has some excellent results. For him, a mid-season funk of sorts probably cost him the award. He went 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts from June 16^th to September 18^th, which bumped his ERA from 2.10 to 2.93. Now, he was outstanding in his last start against the White Sox, going seven shutout inning with 11 strikeouts, but the overall numbers are probably a cut below the other candidates. The question that I think is fair to ask with Kluber is just how worn down he is. Since the start of 2014, he’s thrown 1,127 innings and faced 4,463 batters. That’s a lot. This year against the Royals, he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts, but he’s been hit hard at Kauffman Stadium where he’s posted a 6.35 ERA and allowed eight runs on 16 hits in 11.1 innings. This game is, in fact, at Kauffman Stadium.

Junis had his first meh start of the year against the Tigers last time out, and it might be part of marring a really strong finish for him after allowing four runs on eight hits in three innings the time out before that one. But no homers allowed is a good thing, given the season he’s had, so he gets one last chance to go into the offseason on a high note. I’ll run the numbers as I do every start for him, but since coming off the DL, he’s gone 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 starts spanning 69.1 innings with eight home runs allowed. He’s struck out 66 and walked just 14. That’ll play. He’s been hit hard by Cleveland a couple times this year, but his last time out against them earlier this month, he allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings. More of that would be a nice way to finish his year.

Sunday – 2:15 pm

The 2018 season wraps up with the Royals seeing Carlos Carrasco somehow for the first time since April 6^th when he went six innings and gave up two runs on five hits. Now, think back to that time. Giving up two runs against the Royals then was basically like giving up five or six to a real team, so maybe that wasn’t such a great start. Of course, he is a legitimately very good pitcher and has found his way to another fully healthy, very good season. He strikes out a ton of hitters, doesn’t give up a crazy amount of hits and doesn’t walk guys. No, he isn’t an ace, but he’s a heck of a number two. If you’re looking for a weakness, he’s actually been at his worst when he’s first starting a game, though that’s if you can call that his “worst” as he’s given up a .253/.287/.406 line. Still, though, he’s allowed 10 of the 21 homers he’s allowed all season in just 35 percent of the plate appearances. He’s 10-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 23 games against the Royals in his career. Whit Merrifield has really enjoyed hitting against him in 16 plate appearances, putting up a .500/.533/1.000 line. That’ll play.

And the season wraps up with Eric Skoglund throwing the first pitch, so that’s…something. Though I should be fair to say that he’s been really good since he came off the DL and I was actually disappointed that his last start got cut short because of the rain delay in Cincy. In four games, he’s gone 15.1 innings and given up just eight hits and two runs to lower his ERA by 1.3 runs. He’ll be making his third career start against the Indians. The first two were both last year and didn’t go so well. He lasted 3.1 innings combined and allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with three strikeouts and four walks. So yeah. Happy last day of the season!

This is the toughest series of the year to predict because who knows how the Indians are going to play it? Do they want to stay completely fresh and everyone will play or do they want to take the opportunity to rest guys and play their bench a little bit before the postseason? My guess is we don’t see guys for too long unless they need the reps like maybe Josh Donaldson. I’m going to go out on a true limb here and say the Royals take three of four and give us some warm and fuzzy feelings to take into the offseason.

Note: All advanced stats are through Saturday’s action.

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Monday – 3:10 pm

Plutko has been tasked with replacing Trevor Bauer in the rotation while Bauer recovers from his stress fracture and he’s been fine in two of his three starts, but got roughed up in the other and the Indians have lost all three. Really it’s been a mixed bag as he’s been up and down this year and in and out of the rotation, so it’s hard to say exactly what you’ll get with him. He relies heavily on a nothing special fastball, throwing it more than 60 percent of the time and averaging just about 91-92 MPH on it. His number two is a slider and he mixes in the occasional change and curve. He’s allowed four home runs on his curve out of a total of 10 at bats that ended on it, which isn’t what you’d call ideal. And it’s not like his fastball has some great spin rate or anything. His trouble with lefties gives me a lot of hope for the Royals in this one. He’s allowed a .337/.412/.673 line against them, so I could see Ryan O’Hearn playing pepper with that tall wall in left and Brett Phillips launching one to right and really any of the lefties who are playing well having a field day in this one.

Junis is coming off his first career complete game in an outing that I didn’t expect to go that long. His homerless streak did end in his last start, but his post-DL numbers are very encouraging for his future. In 45.1 innings, he’s struck out 47, walked 12 and allowed three home runs with a 3.12 ERA. That’s some serious quality. Now, some of that is that his complete game was against the Tigers, who he absolutely owns, but you can only beat the teams in front of you. His history against the Indians isn’t what you’d call good. He’s faced them four times and made three starts with an ERA of 8.05 with four home runs allowed in 19 innings. This year has been especially rough, so this’ll be a nice test for him to see if he’s really back on track or if it was a Tigers-induced mirage.

Tuesday – 6:10 pm

The Royals faced Clevinger last week in Kansas City and Salvador Perez hit a monster three-run homer in the first inning, but then they didn’t get anything else off him. That’s actually pretty par for the course for him. He has a 4.67 ERA in the first and has allowed five home runs in 27 games before generally settling down as the game progresses. He’s been good everywhere, but he’s been a little less good at home this season with a  3.44 ERA compared to 2.88 on the road. He’s just a little more hittable at Progressive Field and interestingly just throws more strikes in general there, walking batters at a significantly lower clip. No Royals have hit him well, even Perez with that massive home run, though O’Hearn did go 1-for-3 against him last week, so maybe he’ll be the Royals player to actually hit Clevinger well.

Duffy has now made two starts since his brief DL stint and has been generally pretty good, going 11 innings with 13 strikeouts, five walks and a 2.45 ERA. Some areas of concern for me include his velocity, which topped out at just 93.7 in his last start after hitting near 97 earlier in the season. This is exactly what plagued him earlier in the year when his shoulder was in question, so I think it’s fair to wonder. Another issue has been a ton of pitches, 199 in fact, to average 18 per inning. Then add in very few swings and misses (a 7.5 percent rate), and there’s definitely reason to be worried. The Indians have been a big problem for him this year. He’s 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts and has walked 10 while striking out just eight in 15 innings. I don’t have high hopes here, but if he can pitch well, it’ll make me feel a lot better about him.

Wednesday – 12:10 pm

Kluber bounced back big time in his last start against the Rays, going seven shutout innings. But even with that start, he’s been somewhat ordinary over his last 12 starts, going 6-4 with a 3.84 ERA and striking out just 67 in 75 innings, which is very low for him. Also, the 75 hits allowed in that time is quite a few. That a stretch like that is considered a big slump for him says so much about how good he is, but they’ll need him to be vintage Kluber to make it through the postseason. He’s actually been just okay in each of his last two starts against the Royals with a total of 11.1 innings thrown, 16 hits allowed and eight runs. An odd issue he’s facing this year is with runners in scoring position where he’s allowed a .277 average and .485 slugging percentage. Even with that, his strand rate is still 78 percent, so you might be able to make an argument that there’s some regression coming for him, which isn’t something Indians fans want to hear. It’s hard to say that because he’s so good that you expect him to defy the numbers, but hey, you never know.

Keller just continues to roll along and pitch beyond his years. Sure it was the Orioles, but he just went eight innings for the second time in his career and has now thrown 50 innings since the break with a 3.42 ERA and 40 strikeouts. He threw a career-high 114 pitches in that last start, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Keller is somewhat limited in this one just to be safe. With the Omaha season over by the time this is played, the pitching staff will have plenty of reinforcements in the way of call-ups, so I would expect we might only see five innings of Keller in this one. Of course, that’s all we got from him against Cleveland in Kansas City on the home stand, but it took him 96 pitches to get there. Still, he pitched well, allowing just two runs and striking out five.

The Royals are going well, but the Indians are still the considerably better team and they’re trying to get ramped up right now. I think the Indians take two of three, but the young guys are still fun to see.

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Friday – 7:15 pm

Clevinger may have been a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s settled in nicely as a very good rotation option for the Indians. His stuff is fantastic when he’s on and he is extremely difficult to square up with just a 32.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 5.5 percent barrel rate. He gets swings and misses on every one of his pitches, which is impressive. His curve is his best swing and miss pitch, but he doesn’t throw it that often. His slider is nasty and it’s not far behind. He also has a 93-94 MPH fastball and a good changeup, so he can beat you a lot of ways. If you’re looking for a weakness, his delivery makes him tough on righties but lefties pick him up okay with a .250/.333/.412 line against him. Other than that, he’s just been really good. He even doesn’t struggle a third or fourth time through the order with opponents putting up similar lines to the first two times through against him. He’s another Indians big league development success story.

Keller passed the 100 inning mark during his last start and looks to be holding strong for the Royals, and maybe even getting better. Since the break, he’s thrown 37 innings and struck out 31 while walking 13 and allowing 35 hits. The home runs are up a bit, but they’re still at a very manageable level. His 3.65 ERA seems awfully sustainable. And he manages the running game well with just one stolen base allowed in five attempts. Some of that is Salvy behind the plate, but some of that is Keller. His last time out against the White Sox was a big success because it was just the second time as a starter that he didn’t walk a batter. I don’t know yet that Keller can be a big league starter long term, but these six starts since the break give me a great deal of hope. He hasn’t started against the Indians yet, but he did go three innings against them to hold them down in the big 10-9 comeback win the Royals had back in May. He also had another 1.1 scoreless against them in April, so he’s pitched well in a limited sample.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

Kluber isn’t the best pitcher in the game, but he’s definitely in the conversation and even in a time of struggle, he’s posted a 3.74 ERA in his last 74.2 innings. If that’s struggling, I think any pitcher in the world will take that. He’s just had a couple hiccups recently that we aren’t used to seeing from him. The Cardinals knocked him around in late June and he didn’t get out of the second and then the Yankees and Pirates hit him hard in back to back starts. Since then, he’s been a bit better but not quite vintage Kluber. He has thrown nearly 1,100 innings over the last five years so it’s possible that’s impacting him. He’s still excellent, so I guess it doesn’t matter much. He has been much better at home than on the road with a 3.35 ERA away from Progressive Field and a 2.24 ERA there. And I guess going after the first pitch is a decent idea. At bats that have ended after just one pitch has gone the way of the hitter big time with a .382/.390/.684 line. Of course, if you’re going to go after it, you better be prepared to be down 0-1. And when he’s ahead in the count, opponents are hitting .145 with a .208 SLG, so yeah.

Fillmyer had a bad start against the White Sox his last time that is bad enough statistically with six runs allowed on seven hits in three innings with three homers, but it’s even worse when you remember that he was given a 6-0 lead after two and couldn’t escape the fourth. His slider can be really good at times, but he’s a bit like Jakob Junis in that if it’s not working, he’s not working. I think Junis has more outside the slider, though, which is why he has a much better chance to stick in the big leagues than Fillmyer. He’s now allowed 10 runs on 12 hits in his last two starts spanning just eight innings. His ERA has jumped from 3.13 after his seven shutout innings against the Cubs to 4.57 now. My guess is he’s back in the bullpen soon. Interestingly enough, he also has three shutout innings in relief against Cleveland this year, so maybe he can build on that and get back on track.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

Sorry, but I do think the Royals have a shot against Bieber. I guess it’s that you just Never Say Never. At least that’s what my Friends tell me about the Indians righty with impeccable control and the ability to be a Heartbreaker on the mound with a 93 MPH fastball he throws about 58 percent of the time, a ridiculous slider and a curve that can really Hold Tight. The Royals did manage to hit him decently with four runs on nine hits in six innings back in early July and he only struck out two, which remains his season low. Don’t be a Baby, Indians fans. I’m not throwing Cold Water on your young pitcher. All That Matters is that he gets the job done and he really has this season. You really get The Feeling that he’s going to be a solid pitcher for quite some time.

The second start for Lopez was much better than the first, but it didn’t make me feel any more like he can be a big league starter. Yes, I’m a bit biased because I haven’t believed he’d be a big league starter even from his time in the Brewers organization, but that just means I need to be proven even more than maybe some others. Five innings of one-run ball is fine, but he needed 95 pitches to get through it and maybe I’m wrong, but I thought his stuff took a dive after about his 70^th pitch. He deserves to get starts the rest of the season because what does it matter, so we’ll see if things continue to get better, but at this point, he’s averaged 19 pitches per inning as a starter and that just won’t cut it long term, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can make strides.

I mean, I suppose the Royals could win a game. It’s not like Bieber is unbeatable and Clevinger is good but not elite or anything. That means they’ll probably beat Kluber because nothing makes any sense. Fine, I’ll do it. I’m going to be bold. I think the Royals take one of three.

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Monday

Whenever the Royals face Kluber, I think back to 2012 and 2013 when I couldn’t figure out why a guy with the stuff Kluber had wasn’t getting better results. Well, he’s getting better results now. I’m not sure he’s the best pitcher in baseball or even the American League, but he’s one of a handful on the short list. What’s amazing is that I think he might be getting even better as his control, which was always good, just continues to improve as he’s walking just a batter per nine innings this season. When you have stuff like that, it’s game over. He works with a two-seamer, cutter and slider and all are phenomenal pitches with his fastball coming in at around 93 with some fantastic movement. It is the pitch that’s been hit the hardest with a  .496 slugging percentage allowed and nine home runs. That’s the way to beat him. But while you’re trying to beat him on that, you’re either whiffing on pretty much all his pitches are beating them into the ground. He is coming off his worst start of the year, lasing just 1.2 innings and allowing six runs against St. Louis. Now, that can be good or bad in that maybe there’s something off with him, but I’m betting its bad, knowing Kluber. He’s faced the Royals once this year and gave up two unearned runs over seven innings in an 11-2 Indians win. If you’re looking for a bright spot, Mike Moustakas is hitting .463/.500/.707 against him in 44 plate appearances.

There was a time a few weeks ago when a Junis vs. Kluber matchup would be very exciting, given the comparisons that were made the two sliders, but Junis has been really bad for awhile now, coming out on the losing end of each of his last six starts. One thing I hadn’t noticed before is that he’s thrown about twice as many curves as last season in a pretty similar number of innings, but the whiff rate on it has dropped from 53.8 percent to just 10 percent. Now, he doesn’t throw it much, so that’s not a big issue, but it’s interesting. I really believe the issue for Junis is that he’s just spending too much time in the middle of the plate, as I mentioned in Friday Notes. He gave up four runs on six hits in 5.2 innings against the Indians earlier this year after struggling last year, so this may not be much of a matchup for him.

Tuesday

They’ve got some Bieber fever in Cleveland with their newest rookie starter. Bieber had thrown 76.2 innings in the minors this year and control is and was his calling card, walking just six batters in those innings. He’s walked just four in the big leagues as well, so it’s carrying over, and he’s amazingly getting strikeouts as well, and a lot of them. He throws a lot of four-seam fastballs, nearly 60 percent of pitches are of that variety and he is solid velocity, averaging 93 MPH or so. His slider and curve are nice changes of pace and very good strikeout pitches for him. The numbers are really eye-popping for him. The stuff doesn’t really jump off the screen when you watch him, but it sure looks like it’ll play as a big league pitcher for a long time. His weakness in the big leagues has been lefties, so maybe this is the day Alcides Escobar gets a day off (haha, I kid), but the heavy lifting will likely need to be done against him by guys like Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda, Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi and Rosell Herrera. It might even be a day to give Hunter Dozier a breather and get Bonifacio some DH at bats with Abraham Almonte in the outfield.

You probably know the numbers by now, but Duffy has definitely been better, at least in terms of results. Over his last seven starts, he’s averaged nearly 6.1 innings per with a 2.68 ERA. The strikeouts are there with 38 in 43.2 innings, but the walks are too high, so that’s worth keeping an eye on. His four-seam fastball was simply phenomenal against the Brewers last week, getting 12 swings and misses on it out of just 40 thrown. That’s a really fantastic whiff rate for a pitch that he doesn’t typically get a ton of swings and misses with. It was working so well that he relied really heavily on it, when he typically will go to his changeup a little more often. Duffy’s faced the Indians twice this year. The first time, he had that disaster first inning before settling down. The second time, he gave up nine earned runs in 3.1 innings. He’s been pitching much better since around that start, but, like Junis, this just isn’t a great matchup for him.

Wednesday

Trevor Bauer spent a long time being the most obnoxious pitcher in baseball, but he finally has the numbers to match his annoyingness, so good for him. He’s having a phenomenal year and has been a bit of a tough luck pitcher, further demonstrating why wins and losses for starters tell a fraction of the story at best. After four straight seasons of ERAs finishing above 4.00, he’s finally managed to limit hits, home runs and walks all at once, all while seeing his strikeout rate continue to rise. Maybe I’m just missing the stories, but one of the things I’ve noticed about him is that he’s really simplified his repertoire. He still throws five or six pitches, but he really focuses on his four-seamer, slider and curve, mixing in a cutter as well. That cutter has actually been a bit of a problem for him with a .278 average allowed and .611 SLG, albeit in just 36 at bats that ended on it. You can try to find a weakness with him, but it’s tough. It is interesting to me that in “high leverage” situations, according to Baseball Reference, he’s allowed a .280/.419/.560 line in 63 plate appearances. Who knows what that’s about? Duda is 3 for 7 against him, but most of the Royals big bats (yes they have big bats, stop laughing) have struggled against the talkative righty.

Kennedy left his last start with a side injury but appears to be good to go for this one, which I’m not sure if that’s good or bad. If he can’t go, I imagine Trevor Oaks will get the nod in a battle of Trevors that the Twins would salivate over, but it looks like it’ll be Kennedy. I came into the season hoping Kennedy could somehow regain his 2016 form when he didn’t have a hamstring issue like last year. At this point, there’s really no way to expect much out of him. Yes, he will have a good game from time to time, but no, he isn’t a good pitcher anymore, and that’s really disappointing. He’s only had double digit swings and misses in three of his 17 starts. I’ll keep beating this dead horse. He needs to throw fewer sliders and more changeups. He probably needs to throw fewer fastballs too. Maybe I’m just being too obvious here, but if you have a pitch that you allow a .123 average and .246 SLG like he has with his changeup, I’d throw that more. What can it hurt? Kennedy did have arguably his best start of the year against the Indians in April, throwing six shutout inning with eight strikeouts and no walks.

The Royals are bad, the Indians are good. The Royals might get a win in this series, but I’m certainly not going to be the guy to predict it after I got burned so badly on the series win prediction from over the weekend.

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Friday

When Bauer isn’t accusing other pitchers of using substances to increase spin rate and then seeing his spin rate magically spike in his next start, he’s having an excellent season, well on his way to actually making good on his promise from when he was drafted in 2011. Up until this season, he’s been a thoroughly mediocre pitcher, posting a 4.36 ERA in 132 games, but this year, the numbers really stand out as he’s maintained his strikeout rate spike from last year but been incredibly difficult to hit with just 30 hits allowed. A big difference for him this year has been using his sinker significantly less after it was beaten up on last year and turning more to his slider, which he’s allowed a .088 average with zero extra base hits in 34 at bats, which includes 20 strikeouts. It’s been his money pitch, but the other side of it is his four-seamer has been considerably more effective this year. Last year he allowed a .283 average and .455 SLG on it, but this year, that’s down to .200 and .380. He’s still giving up some extra base hits with it, but the hits themselves are much rarer. He’s 2-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 11 career starts against the Royals, but was excellent against them earlier this year, allowing just one run over eight innings in a loss. If you had forgotten about that game, it was the one where he whined about having to be ready to pitch too quickly and then giving up a home run to Lucas Duda. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both have a .800+ career OPS against him.

Hammel has pretty much settled into who he is, which is a perfectly adequate back of the rotation starter. He had a big hiccup against Boston in Boston, though that’s not all that uncommon. Otherwise, he’s been fine with flashes of better. His strikeout rate and whiff rate prior to his last start was troubling, but after 17 swings and misses by the Tigers on Cinco de Mayo, there’s some reason for optimism that his swing and miss stuff is coming back. I’m slightly fascinated by his troubles the third time through the order, so I’m tracking this year’s success pretty closely. In the third time through and beyond, he’s allowed a .281/.323/.351 line. That’s pretty good. The second time through has really been his issue this year, allowing a .333/.381/.556 line. Maybe he’s thinking ahead to how he’s going to get the lineup out the next time he sees them. He went six shutout innings against Cleveland back in April, but the Indians offense is performing better now and the weather won’t be nearly as much to his advantage.

Saturday

I’m not going to even begin to suggest that Clevinger is mirroring the Kluber path to greatness, but he might be. He debuted in his mid-20s with good stuff but mixed results and then has gotten better each year. Now, he’s only in his third year, so there’s plenty of time to break up that narrative, but he’s been fantastic this year, and a big help has been his walk rate dropping. The strikeout rate has gone with it, but he has such nasty stuff that he’s still getting a ton of weak contact. After hitters had such a difficult time against him last year, I think they’ve gone to the plate with the mentality that they need to swing early to avoid getting down in the count. And they’ve had some success with that, hitting .385 against his fastball on the first pitch, but they’ve also found themselves down in the count quite a bit and when Clevinger gets you down in the count, it’s over. Opponents are hitting just .117 with a .167 SLG when he has the advantage.  The only hitter to really have success against him is Mike Moustakas who has a homer and two walks in 12 plate appearances.

It’s been really amazing to follow the season of Junis. He had the one just horrific start against the White Sox where he allowed about a million home runs and then has really settled in. The last start against Detroit, he had the slider working and struck out eight over seven innings and probably shouldn’t have even given up that second run. I’m not sure why he was out there for the eighth, though I guess lack of faith in the Royals bullpen is a decent enough answer. Cleveland could be a really good matchup for Junis as they’ve struggled big-time with sliders, hitting just .181 against them with a .342 SLG. If he can get that pitch working, he might have a big strikeout day. Lindor, Encarnacion, Bradley and Ramirez have all had a lot of trouble against sliders. Junis faced the Indians twice last year and was really solid in his only start, but he struck out just one in 5.2 innings, so he’ll need to better in this one to have success.

Sunday

I guess it’s a good thing the Royals didn’t have to face Kluber in the crazy cold weather in April because they may have ended up getting no-hit. He’s having his typical season, though he is striking out hitters less prolifically this year with his strikeout rate dropping from 34.1 percent to 26.3 percent, although that’s really just back around where it had been for awhile. Impeccable control, swing and miss stuff and being unhittable have made him arguably the best pitcher in baseball. And he also doesn’t come out of games easily, averaging better than seven innings per start this year. If you’re looking for someone who might have some success, Lucas Duda is 5 for 10 against cutters this year, but Kluber’s cutter is no ordinary cutter. It’s a cool cutter. Opponents have hit just .175 with a .263 SLG against it. Yeesh. Moustakas has also had big success against him, hitting .462/.500/.718 in 42 plate appearances.

Well, Duffy got a win, so that’s good. He didn’t pitch horribly or anything, but it still wasn’t what you’d like from him. I guess you do have to wonder what sitting through a 10-run first inning did to him, but even so, you’d love to get more than 5.1 innings out of your ace on a night where he’s staked to a massive lead. The encouraging thing was continued from his last start and he got a lot of swings and misses, which tells me maybe he’s close, though I wish he’d stop tinkering so much. Still, just four walks in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings is also encouraging. Duffy had a brutal first inning against Cleveland earlier this year but settled in to pitch into the sixth. In his career, he’s 2-7 with a  4.09 ERA against the Indians.

The Indians aren’t playing especially well, but even with that, they’re better than the Royals by quite a bit. The Royals are facing off against what has been the best three starters this year for the Indians, so that doesn’t bode well for them. I think the Indians sweep this series and get their groove back against one of the teams they’re supposed to be beating up on this year.