As I have it from the Royals press release, Matheny will be a special advisor for player development, which I know has many who observed his Cardinals tenure in stitches. He won’t be on the bench. He won’t be assisting Dayton Moore in any official capacity. He’ll just… kind of be around?

And yet we all know what this is—Break Glass in Case of Managerial Change. This is the same kind of positionless position Matheny used to springboard himself into the managerial spot in St. Louis in the first place. Heck, it’s how we got Ned Yost. This act is familiar to every manager whose end is near or whose future is uncertain, and with Ned set to turn 65 next year, it’s not terribly unfair to wonder how long he plans to keep going here.

The gist I get, from spending time talking to Cardinal fans or (shudder) going to Cardinal-centric websites, is that Matheny cared a lot about his players and embodied the Leader of Men mantra that Very Serious Baseball Men™ place exceptional value on. As much as we turn players into numbers rather than people, from all appearances Matheny seemed to care greatly about the person wearing the uniform beyond his WPA or tOPS+. And he made the postseason four straight years to start his tenure, although crediting him with not completely steering the ship into an iceberg as soon as he took over seems rather back-handed—the 2012 Cardinals had talent and a pipeline of up-and-coming youngsters to keep things moving in a good direction, even with the unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras.

He also lost complete and utter control not only of the clubhouse but seemingly of the intricate little things required to be an effective manager. He was clueless as a tactician. He couldn’t run a pitching staff to save his life, and that’s giving him the benefit of the doubt for what guys like Jordan Hicks, Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver were able to do at various times under his tutelage. He played favorites. I’m no Yadier Molina stan, but hey… Yadi’s out taking shots, and I’m not sure there’s many more respected players in baseball than Yadier Molina. He’s inflexible. He wore out position players. He let veteran doofuses harass talented youngsters because Baseball Reasons and also encouraged those same vets to become clubhouse snitches. He also seemed to go out of his way to antagonize other players, including a high-priced free-agent signing and a talent they basically gave away for nothing who hit .343 for his next franchise.

Sounds like a treat!

It should be noted that Mike Shildt took the same guys Matheny barely scratched a .500 record with and went 41-28 and nearly drug the Cardinals to the playoffs last season. Maybe Mike Shildt is modern-day Casey Stengel, maybe he’s not. But one day Matheny was in St. Louis and everyone hated everyone else and they played mediocre baseball, and the next day he was gone and things were fine. I think there might be a tendency to overthink this, that perhaps there were other mitigating factors at work—don’t do that. When Mike Matheny was fired, the St. Louis Cardinals became a markedly better baseball team.

Now he’s Kansas City’s problem. This concerns me for several reasons and excites me for none. Nothing I have read about Mike Matheny, Manager makes this sound promising. No Cardinals fan I’ve spoken to enjoyed the Mike Matheny Experience.

If what we believe will happen comes to pass—that Matheny is the successor to Yost once the latter is out to pasture—one wonders what the resulting ripples might be. Free-agents are already reticent to come to small-market Kansas City—how might they feel about Matheny after he froze out Dexter Fowler? Young players may not enjoy cutting their teeth in a clubhouse if some middling reliever is gonna trash them at every turn or rat them out to the boss. And we have no proof that Matheny can “coach ‘em up,” as the parlance goes—what kind of manager will he be if/when he doesn’t have a team at the height of its powers?

I imagine it will look quite a bit like the first half of his final year in St. Louis, only worse.

For now, I go back to what I started with—that there’s only so much damage he’ll be able to do in an advisory capacity. Perhaps he’ll take a year to get indoctrinated into the Royal Way and his crash course in Baseball According to Dayton Moore will be perspective-altering. Perhaps he will develop a rapport with the next wave of Royals and they’ll rally around him in a year or two as they begin to make their big-league debuts (this seems to be what happened for the Atlanta Braves and Brian Snitker in some capacity, although Matheny would certainly be more fly-by-night). In an advisory role, I guess he’ll have some voice in development, although how much and to what end will likely be the subject of much debate—I’m sure there’s an example you could point to of a player who is better for Mike Matheny having passed through his life, but I’m not sure who and I’m not sure that same player wouldn’t also lament certain aspects of life under Matheny.

So… yeah. Even though this was rumored for a long time now, I’m nowhere closer to understanding just why. Why add Mike Matheny? He’s not a brilliant baseball mind. He’s not a well-respected teacher. I guess he’s a leader, except for the part where he got fired from his last gig in part because he lost his clubhouse. He’s just a dude who has been around baseball for a long time and happened to be unemployed.

If he’s a player, you could see taking a flier on him and hoping he turns into something you can trade for value ahead of the deadline; if not, you cut him loose in spring training. That’s not going to happen with Matheny; now we just get to watch and wait. Exciting!

(It’s November. This is what passes for news.)

• I think I may have talked about this before, but it’s probably worth going over again. There are a few guys the Royals have who will be out of options in 2019 that might things a little complicated. Cheslor Cuthbert is the most obvious because he’s been out of them for two years and stuck on a roster where he really doesn’t fit, but there are others joining him now. Paulo Orlando cannot be sent down again, which makes him a prime DFA candidate (along with his poor play obviously). Rosell Herrera is also out of options, so he might struggle to last the year, especially once Nicky Lopez is brought up. Two others who are interesting are Ramon Torres and Bubba Starling. Given the makeup of the likely 2019 roster, I actually think Torres makes more sense than Herrera, but the Royals love the infield/outfield versatility Herrera brings. Starling, to me, should be the first guy DFAed. I don’t care where he was drafted, where he was born or who he rooted for growing up. That time has passed for him. On the mound, it’s less cumbersome as Brian Flynn and Jorge Lopez are the only pitchers of note out of options. Flynn, to me, is a solid but easily replaced reliever (of course last year’s bullpen might say otherwise on the easily replaced part), but Lopez’s options mean he has a big league role somewhere in 2019. My guess is he opens as the fifth starter but ends the year in the year in the bullpen. If you’re looking ahead to 2020, Samir Duenez will be out of options and with Ryan O’Hearn’s emergence, he might be a candidate to be removed at some point in 2019.
• The Wily Peralta deal makes a lot of sense to me even if you don’t believe he can repeat what he did last year (and I don’t). They were bringing him back no matter what because he was one of the few relievers last season who didn’t turn everything he touched into garbage. So instead of paying him $3 million in 2019, they cut that salary by $750,000 and for his troubles added an extra quarter million to what he would have taken home by giving him a $1 million option buyout. The great thing about that contract is that it doesn’t stop them from doing anything else and if he’s good, they can move him, but if he’s bad, they can move on from him very easily. With all those walks, my guess is that bad is the bet here, but it’s nice to have a guy who at least had some success. Plus, Dayton Moore hadn’t given out a contract with a mutual option in a minute, so he had a chance to scratch that itch. Everybody wins.
• I’ve spent a lot of time talking about bargain-type relievers who the Royals could look to in order to shore up their bullpen. And while I think that’s the direction they’ll go, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a few starters who could fill the role of the final starter in the rotation. What that would do is push all the candidates for that spot to the bullpen to help that unit out. I’ve talked a lot about my thoughts on Jorge Lopez and how I think he’s ultimately a reliever, but Heath Fillmyer fits well there as well with how good his slider was in the big leagues. No, the Royals aren’t going to be in on Patrick Corbin or anything (though they did talk about him in a trade a couple years ago), but a look at the bottom of the barrel of free agent starters could lead them to a veteran on a small enough deal that you figure why not. Some options are James Shields, Miguel Gonzalez (if he’s healthy), Josh Tomlin (woof), Hector Santiago, Jaime Garcia and maybe even a Drew Pomeranz if he ends up cheap enough. One other name to keep an eye on is Erasmo Ramirez. I don’t have any inside information here, but he seems like a Royals target and the reports indicate the Mariners are moving on from him and will be DFAing him shortly. I wouldn’t like that move much, but it does seem like a Dayton special.
• This isn’t Royals-centric, but I keep thinking about Manny Machado’s free agency and I can’t wrap my head around why any team would give him $300 million or more. He’s a fantastic player. At third base, his defense is in the top three in baseball and he can really hit. Maybe he can handle shortstop for a few more years too as he did look better there once he went to the Dodgers. But I feel like there’s too much of an emphasis being placed on his age when he hasn’t really shown that he’s a “best player in baseball” sort of guy for very long. I’ll say it again so that I don’t hammered for saying I don’t think Machado is good. I think he’s truly great. But he’s a real piece of work and even though he’s entering just his age-26 season, I’m just not sure I’d commit that kind of money to him. He’s a year removed from hitting .259/.310/.471. Maybe I’m underselling his age here and it probably won’t matter because he’s going to get 10 years and $326 million or something (so he gets the biggest contract ever), and it’ll have an opt out after three years that he’ll take, so the team will “only” give him $90 million or whatever, but I’m just struggling with the idea that he’s a guy you’d want your team to give that kind of money to. I’m going to repeat this one more time for the people in the back. He’s a truly fantastic player, but he has too many red flags for me to want to give him that money.

You know, I think what jumpstarted the rebuild is we quit talking about the rebuild. I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that it’s OK to lose baseball games. It’s not… I think that was a big part of it. We just made a decision we were going to quit talking about this.

Interesting. And a little goofy. A winning culture and, by subset, a positive mindset are clearly important to Moore. If he believes that not talking about a rebuild was what led to a better second half, that’s his prerogative. But facts are facts and the 2018 season was the first year of a rebuild. Not talking about it doesn’t magically make said rebuild go any faster or disappear altogether. 

Rebuild. Rebuild. Rebuild. There. I wrote it. I’ll write it again.

The truth was, Moore didn’t think his team was going to be 100-loss bad last summer. The overall results left him dissatisfied, but the Royals improved second half left him encouraged.

I think for 2019, I’m more encouraged than I was perhaps at the beginning of 2018… I really felt that 2019 would perhaps be a much more challenging year for us from a won-loss standpoint, not 2018. I didn’t see 100 in the 2018 season. I just didn’t. I felt this team was much better than that. 

I’ve heard that Moore has expressed his thoughts that 2019 would be the real difficult year in the rebuild. Sorry. A difficult year in the process to get back to the postseason. I’m not sure why he necessarily targeted 2019. Truthfully, last season and each of the next two or three look to be lean. The Process can be accelerated through savvy drafting and smart international scouting, two things Moore mentioned, but the Royals lost a lot of talent and that makes the climb back all the more challenging.

Moore issued a bit of a mea culpa when it comes to the current state of the team.

I think one of our frustrations and one of my failures, and many failures truthfully, is the fact that we are where we are. So the focus of this next era of Royals baseball, we want to put together a winning team and then win for a long time. I’m not saying we’ll make the playoffs every year, but we want to play winning baseball. Championship caliber baseball. I like the fact that we played that way in the second half, but we want to win more consistently.

It’s a goal we can all get behind.

Of course the not-rebuild still means there is a lot of focus on the minor leagues. The best system in the history of whatever was used to launch the franchise to back to back pennants. That meant the minors need a little extra TLC to get it back to where it once was. That remains a goal and Moore is pleased with the progress that was made during the year.

It’s a lot better now (the minor league system) than it was at the beginning of the season. It’s hard necessarily to quantify that, but I like the fact that we have a lot more depth with pitching than we did at the beginning of the year obviously with the draft picks, the trades that we made as well… Internationally, I think we’re doing much, much better. I’m excited about our commitment to the Eastern Rim. I think we’re positioned really well to make sure our farm system is rebuilt to a level that is acceptable and that can produce championship, winning caliber players. 

I feel really good about where we are. We’re not where we want to be. We’re going to need to get a lot better if we’re going to play in postseason, but I think the foundation is here for us to go forward.

Obviously, most of that talent is in the low minors. Moore says not to expect them to fast-track players. 

I think it’s going to be really important we stay even more patient. I think we were probably a little too aggressive the first time around with maybe pushing players. Not changing the expectations, because the expectations as we know is what drives results. And so our expectations are always going to be very, very high for our players. 

So for example, we don’t like to see a lot of strikeouts with our players at the minor league level. We don’t want to see high strikeouts for guys we think are going to be on base guys and hit in the middle of the order and play the type of style we need to play in order to win in our ballpark. And so we may not be as aggressive with promoting them in the minor leagues until they cut their strikeout rates by 10 or 15 percent let’s say. Don’t hold me to that, but that’s just an example. 

I dig this because it’s always valuable when you get an on the record quote about a detail of organizational philosophy. Of course, we’ve known all along the Royals value contact. It’s just fascinating to hear Moore talk in some depth about this. Sorry, fans of Frank Schwindel. He cut his strikeout rate by four percent last year (from 16.7 percent to 12.8 percent) and still couldn’t get the call to The Show.

Moore specifically named Seuly Matias (34.8 percent strikeout rate last year in Single-A Lexington), Nick Pratto (27.9 percent) and MJ Melendez (30.3 percent) as players who they want to see cut their whiff rate. 

If they’re going to strike out, the Royals want to make damn sure the players they have are athletes who like to compete and are good teammates. Again, we’ve heard this before from Moore. It’s important to him and will guide him and his staff going forward. Moore admitted that they have to have the talent to play baseball as well. Duh. Let’s hope he can find players who fit this magical combination.

At least Ned Yost will be returning. Moore is pleased because of the harmony they share. Moore noted they both hold the same beliefs on how you build a team, maintain an organization and the importance of the things it takes to win.

I’m excited Ned is going to be back for the 2019 season. We’ve always just left it kind of year to year since we won the World Series just because it takes so much commitment and energy to go through the major league season.

As I’ve written before, this makes sense. Yost has managed for a long time and has accomplished everything one would hope to accomplish as a big league manager. He has nothing left to prove and managing a club that is not-rebuilding can become a bit of a chore. You could see it wear on him in the middle part of the year, but the improved second half provided Yost with a bit of positive energy. He’s back and everyone has the flexibility that is inherent in a short-term commitment. It’s a happy front office and manager.

For the most part, it sounds like Yost will be managing most of the same crew that closed out the 2018 season. 

I feel like there won’t be a lot of turnover… A lot of change… A lot of adding to that group. We’re prepared to go forward with them.

Moore mentioned two points of emphasis going forward. One, they need to build an elite farm system. And two, they need to get the major league payroll under control so the Royals are in a better position in 2020 and ’21 and beyond. He says everything will be viewed through those two objectives.

In other words, don’t expect the Royals to make any kind of interesting moves this winter. With over $67 million committed to five players and a rumored projected payroll set somewhere around $90 million (no one at the press conference asked Moore about next year’s payroll, which is really poor form) the organization will go bargain hunting when adding to the roster. The bullpen is an obvious area of need and Moore mentioned they would look into some reclamation projects. They’ve had success in the past with Ryan Madson and Joe Blanton. The Royals will look for another arm or two with some rebound potential.

And when it comes to the relief corps, Moore wouldn’t dismiss the idea of moving starters Danny Duffy or Ian Kennedy to the bullpen. Of course, Duffy has done it before. Kennedy has only made two appearances in relief in his career. Both are interesting candidates, but rotation depth figures to once again be rather thin. I’d wager they will open the year as starters. I won’t wager that they will still be in the rotation when next September rolls around.

It was a freewheeling conversation, lasting over 50 minutes and touched on topics such as analytics and how the Royals mesh the data with scouting, the importance of the team in the community and, as you’ve probably heard, Luke Heimlich. I’m not sure why the Heimlich question came up again, but Moore once again stated his belief in Heimlich as a person and a ballplayer. Why Moore feels the need to answer that question, only he can say. The smart move would be to deflect. Heimlich isn’t in the organization, after all. After the firestorm that kicked up last summer after the draft, not saying anything would have been the smart thing to do.

And now the winter is truly upon us in Kansas City. Half of the World Series is set. The GM meetings are next month. The winter meetings are about eight weeks away. Pitchers and catchers report in four months. Thanks for spending the season with us at BP Kansas City. It’s an honor when you make us part of your daily Royals routine.

Keep clicking. We’ll keep writing.

Despite protestations from the manager that he hadn’t thought about or discussed his future with the Royals, it was clear the two sides wouldn’t let this drag out beyond the final out of the regular season. The Royals wanted Yost back. Yost wanted to return. He’s already the sixth-highest paid manager in the game. His tenure with the team and accomplishments will keep him near the top of the managerial fiscal pyramid, so there was likely little haggling over salary. The negotiation took, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reported, all of two minutes. 

The pain of April and May eventually gave way to the promise of September. With the Royals playing close to .500 baseball over the season’s second half and with the necessary injection of youth once the veterans were shipped off, it wasn’t a surprise Yost found himself wanting another crack. He’s built teams before. It’s a process he enjoys. The Royals are still in the early part of their rebuild, but it’s not difficult to be enthused by what he saw over the season’s last couple of months.

Besides, knowing Yost the way we have come to know him over these years in Kansas City, it’s not his style to leave things undone. He came back for 2018 knowing his core would be scattered, but it wouldn’t be right to leave the cupboard bare for a new skipper. He returns for 2019 knowing positive steps have been made, but there is still plenty of work to be done. Should Yost decide to cede the reigns, he won’t do so until he’s convinced the club is firmly on the right path and his right successor is picked out.

For the Royals, the idea of bringing back Yost has always been the right move. Moore pointed to it in his comments and has mentioned it before: Continuity and stability counts. The lineup of the regular season finale featured just two players – Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar – who were regulars on the World Championship team. And with the baseball gods willing, Escobar won’t be back with the team next year. With an expected cut in payroll forthcoming, there won’t be a ton of moves to be made this winter when it comes to making additions to the roster. The 2019 Royals will probably look a lot like the version we saw this month. This group heads into the winter with the knowledge their leader will be back. The building, and hopefully the progress, will continue. 

It turns out Yost is the right manager at the right time for these Royals.

While the sabermetricians and the old school baseball fans are the Jets and the Sharks of 21st century baseball, both fail spectacularly when it comes to assessing the impact of a manager. In-game management is just one skill; don’t overlook the intangibles. Yost is as good as they come at handling a clubhouse. He’s managed damn near every type of club imaginable, and usually done so with success. 

There are the usual managerial peccadilloes that we have become used to over the years. Those aren’t going away. There will be odd lineups, questionable bullpen matchups, and bizarre in game strategies. But what goes on behind the scenes, off the field, it often more important. Yost is a player’s manager who has always commanded his clubhouse. Players enjoy a certain amount of freedom and respect Yost enough to rarely, if ever, to cross the line. And Yost’s respect across the game has only increased after the back to back pennants. Players like playing for Yost. They want to play for him. There’s currency in that. 

Ultimately, that’s why Dayton Moore wants Yost back. The continuity is nice and all, but Yost, at least behind the scenes, is a great manager. Yes, great. He may not be around the next time the Royals reach the promised land of postseason baseball, but if everything goes according to plan, the next time a flag goes up beyond the left field fence, Yost will have played a part in that team’s foundation.

I was hardly alone in this. The rest of the Royals blogosphere was already way ahead of me. I figured Moore might deserve the rest of the season, but once the Royals, 48-46 at the All-Star Break and 6.5 games out of the AL Central lead, failed to make the postseason, there could be no more excuses. Eight years in and no playoff berths? Trading a key asset like Wil Myers for James Shields only to end up an also-ran? Those seemed like fireable offenses to me.

Had I been smart enough to actually write, “Hey, let’s let this season play out before we call for Moore’s job,” I could claim to be a genius. Instead, I kept it to myself. So no genius claims here.

You know what happened next: the team caught fire, rolled through the postseason until running into that one Giants pitcher, then came back the next year and won it all. They couldn’t follow that up with more postseason play, but they can at least claim they were in contention as September began in both 2016 and 2017 (three and 4.5 games out of a playoff spot, respectively, which isn’t an outstanding chance but is certainly possible).

You’d think that would buy Moore a little goodwill. And for the most part, I think it has. But I’ve seen and heard some grumbling that the Royals might be better off parting ways with the general manager. Nationally-known writers are saying he was merely lucky, while more local writers seem to think he’s clueless now.

Before I get into my defense of Dayton Moore, let me say that this is most likely a pointless argument. I have a hard time imagining the Royals firing him, unless this season is followed by several more just like it. All that matters is what the Glass family thinks, and while they usually play things close to the vest, there is no indication they are considering anything of the sort that I know about (not that I have highly-placed sources or anything, but I certainly don’t see any evidence of this).

So let’s try defending Dayton.

First, let’s keep in mind that this rebuild is less than a year old. You might subscribe to the theory that it wouldn’t have to be if he had traded away players like Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas at the trade deadline in 2016 or 2017. And sure, they would have received talented players in return (although if you’re questioning Moore already, why would you assume he would make good trades for those players?). But who wants to be a fan of a team that a) sells off good players just months after a World Series title, and b) does so when they are two games out of first in the division (which is where they were at last year’s trade deadline)? After almost three decades of futility, Dayton Moore was supposed to tear up the team that finally broke through, just for a chance the team might be good in 2020? No, people—probably many of the same ones most upset today—would have been furious. It’s almost like you can’t win in this situation. So, in my mind, you might as well try to make the playoffs.

No, this rebuild began last November. Patience is needed. Maybe not eight years’ worth, but I think a little patience isn’t too much to ask. It is true, and fair to point out, that Moore is not on a streak of great decisions, although some of the ones he’s made since that World Series title at least seemed defensible at the time.

And for some reason, there seems to be some consternation over Moore actually having the temerity to (gasp!) say the Royals are not tanking and would like to win more games.

I respect Moore for trying to win. If you care about baseball, I think you should, too. I don’t think it’s good for the sport to have 12 teams trying to win the World Series and 18 teams trying for the #1 draft pick. People act like the #1 spot is the only place you can get a great player, despite seeing the Royals win a World Series with one overall number one pick on the roster: reliever Luke Hochevar. Yes, Hosmer, Moustakas, and Alex Gordon were all top five picks. Cain was a 17th-round pick. Jarrod Dyson was famously picked in the 50th round. Ben Zobrist was a third-round selection, as was Danny Duffy.

And again, if you are already questioning Moore, why would you expect him to do a good job with these potential top selections? In this case, I might agree with you a little more. Part of the Royals’ problem right now is the bad job they did in the early rounds of the 2011 and 2012 drafts—it is arguably the difference between the four- or five-year window they had and a 2000s-Twins decade or so of contention. I give them a break on 2013 and 2014 because they dealt Sean Manaea for Zobrist and Brandon Finnegan contributed to a World Series team before being traded for Johnny Cueto. The 2018 Royals would be better with Manaea, but they’d still be bad and we might not have that sweet World Series flag flying over Kauffman Stadium. I’ll take the way things are, thank you.

None of this is to say that Dayton Moore is infallible or that he deserves a lifetime contract. But I do think he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Let’s not forget that the farm system looked barren just a few months ago. It’s not great now, but they have added talent at the lower levels through this year’s draft (taking advantage of those picks they got from not trading Hosmer or Cain), plus players like Khalil Lee and Seuly Matias have had breakout years. The low minors look pretty good now. Then he added some players who were already in the majors or close to it (Rosell Herrera, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips). Those guys were at one time all considered good prospects. The shine had come off them a bit, but apparently smarter baseball people than me thought they had some potential at one point. They were all acquired fairly cheaply and that is precisely what the Royals should be doing at the major-league level now: finding cheap assets with ability and a few years of team control remaining.

And, of course, Dayton Moore did build a championship team once before. Maybe there was some luck involved (news flash: luck is involved in nearly every World Series’ winner’s postseason) but it still happened. Maybe he didn’t build that team the way you—or I—would have done it, but he did. If I’ve learned anything from the Dayton Moore regime, it’s to be cautious when doubting him. Let’s see how it plays out.

After Mike Moustakas joined forces with Lorenzo Cain in Milwaukee, the 2015 cupboard has officially been cleaned. Eric Hosmer is underperforming in San Diego. HDH is scattered to the four winds. RIP Yo. A whole eight players from the 2015 title team remain in the organization, and that’s counting Terrance Gore (he has not played in Kansas City in 2018) and Adalberto Mondesi (made one appearance, in the World Series, in all of 2015). What remains are players nobody else wants (Alex Gordon, Paulo Orlando, Alcides Escobar), players too valuable to the franchise to move for any less than a king’s ransom (Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, BERTO, Gordon again) and Drew Butera, who doesn’t really fall into any of these categories.

So yeah. That’s…it. It could’ve gone better, I guess? I’m not sure how, but it seems like it should take more than three seasons to go from a title to 105 losses. The last time—the only time—that’s happened was when the Philadelphia A’s won the 1913 World Series and then lost 109 games two years later and 117 the year after that.

So we’re now watching history.

To quickly summarize (eulogize?) the Moustakas era in Kansas City, I can’t recall any player who has consistently refurbished how he did things so often and seemingly always as a net positive. After being picked second overall in 2007, he debuted in 2011 but it took awhile for him to find his footing. His first four years were probably highlighted by a 20-homer 2012 campaign (that also saw him hit .242 and strikeout 124 times), but he was rancid in 2013 (.233 average, .651 OPS) and worse to start 2014 (demoted to Triple-A Omaha) before catching fire late and clubbing five homers in the postseason.

A year later he was an All-Star and making the tumbling catch in the ALCS and winning the franchise’s first World Series in 30 years. He was a consistently above-average performer his last four seasons in Kansas City, even with an ACL tear robbing him of most of his 2016 season. He set the franchise record for single-season home runs last year and participated in the Home Run Derby. Moose is a big ol’ hogmolly of a boy and I will miss him his big lumbering self launching homers into the right field bullpen, until he comes back in the offseason—three years, $39 million, you heard it here first!

Like his buddy Hosmer, Moose expected to cash in last offseason. Unlike Hosmer, the market never developed and he and the organization eventually entered into a marriage of convenience for 2018. It started great (.302, eight homers over the first month) but has steadily declined, to the point where he was hitting .191 in July. For a two-month rental, the return (Jorge Lopez, Brett Phillips, Brett Phillips’ hysterical laugh) is pretty great.

Where that leaves the franchise moving forward is anyone’s guess. Lopez will need a minute. Phillips is a great addition to an already-crowded outfield; Gordon is getting paid either way, so he’s probably playing, and Phillips’ howitzer arm needs to play. That means one of the Jorge’s (Bonifacio and Soler) will get to DH a lot more than they’d probably like. Rosell Herrera has been a bright spot since coming aboard, but he’s probably getting squeezed out (or moving to third, as has been alluded to).

Ned Yost also telling me he will look at Alcides Escobar, Hunter Dozier and Rosell Herrera at third base

— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) July 28, 2018

Everyone will get a look at third—Esky, Dozier, Herrera, Whit Merrifield, Drew Butera, why not? If nothing else, this should mean, unequivocally, that Adalberto Mondesi plays shortstop every day for the rest of the season and beyond. If another deal for an infielder is made, it means someone—Nicky Lopez, Frank Schwindel, Ryan O’Hearn—will come to Kansas City. After some uncharacteristic whiffs over the last couple of years, it feels hard to describe this as anything other than a win for Dayton Moore, perhaps silencing some critics wondering if he was the right man for this rebuild.

The elusive future seems like it’s gaining clarity. Mike Moustakas, who played such a role in the previous foundation, helped on his way out the door provide for the Royals future.

Let’s be honest. It’s been “on” since spring training. “On” being the rebuild. The Royals stocked the farm with the draft earlier this month and the deal that sent Jon Jay to Arizona. They sold again on Monday, sending Kelvin Herrera to Washington in exchange for three prospects.

I saw someone refer to the deal as a “real scout’s trade,” meaning opinions are as divided as you can possibly imagine. On one side, you have a handful of talent evaluators convinced all three will perform regular duty in the majors. The flip side is a pair of defensive-first fringe players and a wild card of an arm.

It’s folly to immediately cast judgement on any deal involving prospects in the lower minors, and that’s the case here. That fact alone makes this trade problematic. In Herrera, the Royals had one of the best relief arms on the market, a closer who has a track record of success and is enjoying one of his best stretches of relieving to date. Perhaps they could have gathered a stronger prospect had they decided to kick in a little of the cash still owed to Herrera, but we know that’s not how the Glass family rolls. Despite all the plaudits the family has collected since hiring Moore over 12 years ago for staying relatively out of the way, they still have ultimate control over payroll and that is something that has impacted this team. They wouldn’t add salary in the 2015 stretch run and that cost them some extra prospect value in the Johnny Cuteo and Ben Zobrist deals. Could they have gotten a better return if they kicked in some cash this time around?

The return for a stalwart bullpen arm like Herrera vibes something that would have been there at the trade deadline. It’s nothing special. Why pull the trigger now when the return wasn’t better?

Of course, the best trade questions are the ones that will forever remain unanswered. It’s undeniable that Gutierrez and Perkins profile as players the Royals covet for their system. They’re athletes who can play above average defense, yet have abundant questions when it comes to the bat. 

The Herrera trade comes on the heels of a solid roster overhaul on Sunday when the club called up Adalberto Mondesi and Rosel Herrera from Omaha as they placed Jorge Soler on the disabled list with a fractured toe and farmed out seldom-seen Ramon Torres. 

Mondesi wasn’t exactly lighting it up in Omaha this season at .250/.295/.492 and a 97 wRC+, but that’s beside the point. Instead, look at his entire body of Triple-A production. In 551 plate appearances for Omaha, he’s hit .292/.328/.527. Due to time spent in the majors and his PED suspension, it’s taken him three years of Triple-A ball to accumulate a season’s worth of stats. Does the cumulative signal his readiness to contribute at the major league level? Who really knows, but isn’t it worth finding out. Recall, the championship core of the Royals didn’t just show up and turn the team into a contender. It took three years. Mondesi already has 121 days of major league service, so if he sticks with the team for the rest of the summer (and assuming he’s a major leaguer from here on out) that means he becomes eligible for free agency after the 2023 season. You know what they say about five-year plans.

The Royals have concerns about Mondesi’s ability to stay on the field and that’s understandable. The Royals are on the record as saying they’d like him to play three to four times a week. That doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Especially if you’re trying to get a player who could be one of your key guys in the future on track. Why would you deny him regular time? Does anyone recall Ned Yost steadfast in his refusal to pinch hit for Alcides Escobar in a key, late inning situation? Just let Mondesi play. 

Speaking of Escobar, Yost also denied that his consecutive game streak (now at 406 games!) does not factor into his decision with how to play Mondesi. Man, I’m not sure I buy that at all. The Royals seem awfully proud of Escobar’s streak, which is just embarrassing. The Royals have this frustrating habit of rewarding the inept with not only an inexplicable roster spot, but with consistent playing time. On any other team, Escobar has been released at this point or at the very least marginalized into a late inning defensive replacement. On the Royals, he’s the everyday starter, amazing at his resiliency and ability to grind it out everyday. 

Escobar’s wRC+ is 45, currently the third-worst mark in the majors. This is familiar territory for him. His 62 wRC+ last year was second-worst in the majors. His 69 wRC+ in 2016 was third-worst. He is not a good offensive player. And his defense does not make up for his abysmal offense. 

We’ve made this argument before and will continue to bang this particular drum. It’s one thing to fill a spot like first base with a player such as Lucas Duda when the Royals don’t have anyone at the ready to step into that position. Duda, who reported to Omaha for a rehab assignment on Monday, is a guy you can hope to flip at the deadline for a lottery ticket. There’s no such upside for Escobar. It’s difficult to imagine there will be any takers for his services.

The current state of the rebuild means contention is still far away. The Royals don’t have many young players in the system ready for the jump, but for the ones who are possibly ready, now is the time to play them to see what they have. That means Hunter Dozier stays up when Duda returns. That means Mondesi and Merrifield get some time together up the middle. And it means Jorge Bonifacio gets some quality playing time when he returns before the end of the month. The rebuild is underway. Play the kids. Let them play.

They did just that spending in the neighborhood of $14 million dollars, a franchise record, with the bulk of that money going to Bubba Starling and seven other players. While Starling was the sure-fire star, there was one pitcher among the four who they spent over $500k on that stood out in Bryan Brickhouse, the 3rd round selection and new $1.5m bonus baby. That bonus was equal to the largest that Dayton Moore had given 1st round pick Aaron Crow year prior, the highest a pitcher had been given by the GM if you choose to believe that Luke Hochevar wasn’t a Moore pick. It was Starling and Brickhouse as well as the younger players in the system that consisted of Cheslor Cuthbert and Jorge Bonifacio among a few others that were supposed to lead the second wave.

Bryan signing his first contract with Kansas City

The Royals at that time had a pretty specific plan with their newly drafted pitching prospects. With the one exception of Tyler Sample, the pitchers selected in the year’s previous draft would head out to full-season Low-A ball in Burlington, IA or their new home at the time in Kane County after the midwest weather would thaw. It was a plan that into 2012 looked as if it had worked quite well for Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Danny Duffy with all three pitchers becoming big name prospects and appearing to be the proper plan for the newest prep pitcher Brickhouse. An assignment would come to Kane County in June after a tune-up start in Idaho Falls and while the results were less than spectacular, the hard-throwing prepster made 11 starts on the year while tossing 53 innings to get his feet wet in pro ball. The first step on a long road for what the Royals hoped would end in the big leagues.

Video of Bryan Brickhouse during 2011 Instructs

The road up until the draft had been paved by Bryan’s work ethic in his Texas home. Working alongside his friend Jameson Taillon, the two threw with their throwing coach Dave Evans, a pitching coach who had helped Taillon become the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft, sandwiched in between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and build Bryan’s draft stock a year later. Brickhouse had followed a similar path as Taillon and earned a life-changing bonus before heading off with his new Royals family. As was the case with a lot of pitching coaches at that time, they helped the players build their talent and then lost contact when the new team took over.

Things have changed somewhat but it made some sense at the time that the high school pitching guru would yield to the professionals and their pocketbooks once players were established with their new teams. The newfound developments of pitching training were in their infancy and Brickhouse working with Evans wasn’t a disciple of the long-toss revolution that Trevor Bauer and Dylan Bundy had talked about so much prior to that year’s draft.

After a season in Kane County, Brickhouse headed back to Low-A, this time with the Royals new affiliate in Lexington. After a good start that saw Bryan yield more than two runs in just two of his first eleven starts, Brickhouse would tear his UCL, causing him to get Tommy John surgery in June of 2013. It would be at this point where the problems would really start for the Royals young pitcher. During that rehab process of his Tommy John surgery, Brickhouse would encounter an olecranon stress fracture, forcing a maintenance plan to be taken to help work through the tiny crack in his elbow, delaying his timeline back from the UCL tear. The recovery time from that fracture pushed him through August of 2015 before he saw the mound again in Arizona and Idaho Falls prior to what was supposed to be a stint in the Arizona Fall League. The intensity of the Fall League forced a blowout of the elbow which required a screw be placed in his elbow in November of ’15.

After surgery, rest and another rehab process, Brickhouse stepped back on a mound for the first time and immediately blew out the elbow again. This time it would cause a larger stress fracture that would again need a screw placed into the elbow and another stint on the DL and back into the Arizona rehab process. Over the course of three years, Brickhouse had torn his UCL, developed a tiny crack in the elbow which eventually led to multiple screw surgeries while pitching just 43 innings. After the second screw surgery, Brickhouse healed 100 percent, but the weakness of the bone in the elbow from multiple surgeries was causing extreme pain, making it difficult for him to get through a simple 25 pitch bullpen. After three years of trying to get healthy with rehab and the frustration and mental toll of the constant rehab process he felt it was time for him to take a step away after spring training of 2017.

“Mentally I was over it, the grind of throwing a 25 pitch pen and feeling like my elbow was going to snap in half was frustrated. I felt like I was stuck in a rut and walking away was a fresh breath of air.”

Away from the game, Bryan got his real estate license and prepared for life a new calling. After three years of doing mostly rehab and lower body work, he thought he’d work on getting in better physical shape since he no longer had to worry about the arm. Without that worry, he decided to start lifting, something he hadn’t done much at all during the rehab, as well as working on more stretching exercises including yoga. He still had the elbow pain, but he didn’t need to worry about it as much without the throwing routine. Slowly as he lifted more and more with different lifting techniques and stretching the pain started to lessen as he believes the lifting helped build that bone density and strengthen his elbow.

The combination of better nutrition while cooking at home, eating smaller portions and doing a full range of body workouts helped him lose 35 lbs. All of this had him feeling better while his elbow felt at a level it hadn’t in over three years. With that feeling came a thought that it was a good time to reach out to his former throwing coach Dave Evans for one last shot at reaching for his dream. Despite all the obstacles that Bryan had encountered over the previous three years, the desire to make one last push of pitching in the big leagues was still there but he knew his old pitching coach would be the only one who could help him reach that goal.

Re-enter David Evans

By this time in his career, Dave was a full convert to the advanced throwing practices you see from so many pitchers in the current game, using Driveline practices with weighted balls, long-toss and mapping of the arm motions to help get the most out of his pitchers. Working from Houston, Evans hadn’t followed Brickhouse’s path or known what he was encountering. After driving to meet late one night and having recounted the story Dave asked the one question on everyone’s mind: “Why would you wait so long to contact me?” Now knowing what was at stake, and feeling Bryan’s determination to push all-in, Dave let him know he wasn’t going to let him fail and he was ready to help him if Bryan was willing to follow the plan and be as open and honest about his recovery as possible.

The first thing they did together was to play catch to try to determine the arm motion that Brickhouse was working with. Almost immediately, Evans noticed what he was taking the arm too far back in an effort to try to accelerate the arm too soon and then coming inside the ball with extra pronation or hyperextension at release to try to create an extra deceleration pattern almost as if he was trying to manipulate the ball from the inside of the grip to push it outwards. Bryan believed this pattern may have been created following his initial Tommy John surgery in a subconscious way to try to protect his elbow.

According to Evans, this movement was putting extra stress on the elbow as it was causing the joint to bang together and would likely result in reinjury if it wasn’t corrected immediately. This motion wasn’t new to Brickhouse as he had been told in playing catch previously that the ball had this type of action, a similar action and sink had occurred on his changeup in throwing sessions but Evans video and mapping made it evident how much damage it was doing.

A plan was devised using weighted balls in various weights from as low as 3.5 oz underload balls to balls as heavy as 2+ lbs was developed in addition to long-toss that would eventually grow to an accelerated long-toss of 300 feet or more, and daily throwing with remapping and reeducating the pitcher’s mind together with video among other things. With so many variables for an arm with multiple surgeries, previous pain and screws inside some may have been scared by this idea but Bryan never balked at the plan and never wavered or missed a day of throwing. Implementing the changes took a little over a month to get where he was able to use his muscle memory to enforce the changes and get the feeling for the motion using more of a supination movement in the throw.

This started in late September and within three weeks the mechanics were starting to take hold. An extremely hard worker, Evans said that trying to make him not overwork and overthrow was the only hiccup they would encounter in this process. The feel from the reworking and remapping though was taking place and in those instances, Bryan was able to catch it and self-correct. There was milepost along the way for the pitcher, first having no pain despite throwing daily something he hadn’t felt in years previous to his Arizona rehab stints, reaching that 300 feet long-toss point, getting on a mound for the first measuring point and throwing 93-95 mph with no pain that day or the day after.

One of the major milepost moments along Bryan’s path came in late November at the Houston area training facility. The Royals had an open invitation on the table for him to return to spring training, but on this day, Lonnie Goldberg and a few area scouts happened to be at the facility checking out draft prospects for the upcoming 2018 draft. In front of the man who pegged him with that 3rd round selection in 2011, Bryan was physically in the best shape he had been in over three years and hitting 95-97 mph in a bullpen session, showing it off and “letting it eat.” The milepost moments for Brickhouse kept coming, hitting 98 mph with many current major leaguers at a throwing session prior to leaving for Arizona, still healthy he was determining his future goals with the Royals again.

The two major goals for that spring training season were to hit 100 mph and land a spot with a full season club, something he hadn’t done since pitching with Lexington in 2013. The Royals knowing the work he had put in, made no changes to his routine just asking him to be cautious. He quickly blew them away during spring training, achieving both of his goal of landing a spot on the full season Wilmington roster, a level he had never previously reached, and hitting 100 mph a few days prior to heading out with his new team. All of this while still feeling no pain. His body is propelling the arm and his career all at once and it all seems to be in place with the results speaking for themselves thus far, striking out eight hitters over four one-inning relief appearances and no hits allowed.

For some, just getting back to this point would be an outstanding and a worthy accomplishment but for Bryan, this isn’t the end nor the goal he set out to achieve and considering the minefields he has already traveled one thinks he’ll be wearing Royals blue very soon.

David Evans has worked with some of the premier arms in the game including Aroldis Chapman, Jameson Taillon, 2017 draftee Shane Baz and others. Premier Baseball of Texas – David Evans

Dynamic Sports Training blog on Bryan’s Offseason training program

Featured Photo Copyright of Brad Glazier Photo

Where could they find this information? Perhaps they should ask Danny Duffy, a left-handed starting pitcher that stepped away from the game, came back and achieved some success, encountered Tommy John surgery and achieved success again all while tweeting the now famous line “bury me a Royal”. Why is Danny so loyal? Of course, some fans have loved up on Duffy throughout his career but next to him every day is a front office and coaching staff that has helped him along the way. If you ask he’ll tell you about the staff and how they’ve been there alongside him during his up and down journey much like he did during his press conference following a DUI arrest last season.  That loyalty is also evidenced in other players like Mike Moustakas and minor leaguers Rudy Martin and Hunter Dozier who all mentioned the staff and leadership when I spoke with them Monday after the cancellation of the exhibition game in Omaha. Journeyman reliever Jason Adam, a former Royals 2010 draft pick that was traded to Minnesota before signing with the San Diego Padres has no problems telling anyone who asks that the staff in Kansas City was always upfront with him and honest.

“The Royals go above and beyond, they make that extra effort to make sure we are growing not just as baseball players but as men,” Adam said.

The porn story is great for headlines but what one may miss out on is the trip Dayton had his staff take to the MLK Center in Atlanta. In a sport that is seeing a steady decline in participation from African-American athletes and a sporting world that was charged up with a President’s tweets telling players they should be fired for kneeling, Moore was taking a hands-on approach to learning about the community and their feelings, pushing his fellow leaders to learn from MLK and the Civil Rights movement while drawing a correlation between the current events of a divided nation. This isn’t the only thing he has done either as people in Kansas City have already seen his involvement in the Urban Youth Academy facility, built near the Negro League Museum in downtown Kansas City. On this day GMDM talked about how one of the things he’s most proud of is the involvement the Academy has in softball leagues in the KC area. How those league’s getting girls involved in softball will someday help grow the major league sport as former softball players will eventually become future mother’s all while giving the youth in the city a spot where they can mentor and grow the youth as people.

This is the point it seems for Dayton, he’s brought the city a World Series and a parade like he said he would but what one gathers from a discussion with him is that it is more important to see his player’s, staff and people he interacts with growing as people while leaving a lasting impression on the city he lives in. The saying “Flags fly forever” is one that gets tossed around often but the impact Dayton is making amongst the people he interacts with will truly be was last forever.

Audio Interview Dayton Moore Part 1 and Part 2

Danny Duffy Audio Link

Rudy Martin Audio Link

Jason Adam Audio Link

Anderson Miller Audio Link

Follow me on twitter @ClintScoles

Mike Moustakas’ deal has a $5.5M salary in 2018 with $2.2 million in performance bonuses. There is a mutual option for $15 million in 2019 with a $1 million buyout.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 9, 2018

Take a moment to unpack the lunacy of what we’re discussing here. Mike Moustakas earned $8.7 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility. It was his last stop before he was awash in the riches of free agency. (It was actually the second year of a two year deal he signed prior to the 2016 season.) His new contract will provide him $5.5 million guaranteed with an additional $2.2 million in performance bonuses. There also includes, wait for it… a mutual option for 2019. The option is for $15 million, but that’s not important or especially interesting. No, what piqued my interest was the buyout of $1 million. So one year after earning $8.7 million, should Moustakas hit all his bonuses he’ll stand to earn… $8.7 million.

What is happening?

This seems like the proper time to mention that Moustakas turned down the Royals’ qualifying offer valued at $17.4 million. No mulligans, please.

You can’t help but feel bad for Moustakas. Coming off what amounts to the second-best offensive season of his career and certainly his most powerful, he figured to score in free agency. The Royals were most certainly banking on him signing with another team so they could pocket a compensation pick in next summer’s draft. It was widely expected he would sign for north of $50 million, which would have netted the Royals a pick after the first round.

When the hot stove failed to ignite and as teams thought to be in the Moose market looked elsewhere, effectively shrinking his market, that pick looked precarious. As time passed, it looked more likely the Royals would settle for a pick after the Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the third round. That’s where the compensation for free agents who received the qualifying offer and sign for less than $50 million lands. Having been given a qualifying offer, Moustakas is not eligible to receive a second one.

Crazy.

Whereas the Lucas Duda and Jon Jay signings didn’t impact a major league ready player already on the roster, the same can’t really be said about the deal to retain Moustakas. Cheslor Cuthbert was part of Ned Yost’s gang of 500, mentioned earlier this spring along with Jorge Bonifacio and Jorge Soler as players the Royals were seeking to give 500 plate appearances. That seems awfully unlikely for Cuthbert at this point. However, he’s out of options. Same for Soler. Bonifacio has one remaining but looks to be a lock to make the club. It appears as though the Royals may have handcuffed themselves with this move if they are truly trying to find opportunity for Cuthbert. There’s certainly still a way to get him in the lineup, but it involves platooning at first with Duda and rotating amongst the DH candidates. We’ll see.

This also gives the Royals a bonafide trade chip. Duda and Jay are nice, complimentary players who, while they definitely improve the Royals roster, are not the kind of pieces contenders will shake the farm at to add to their team. Moustakas should be a different story. If he’s healthy (and fit), his affordable contract, power profile and, yes, his championship pedigree, could position him as one of the players in demand at the deadline. The Royals could stand to make out better from bringing Moustakas back in the longterm than if they pocketed a compensation pick.

The Royals now owe around $103.5 million in guaranteed money to 16 players. The additional nine who will fill out the roster will earn around $675,000 each as estimated by Cot’s Contracts. The actual amount will likely be lower, as the major league minimum salary is $545,000 for 2018. Let’s land in the middle at $600,000 on average for the remaining nine which comes to $5.4 million. That brings the payroll for the 25-man roster to around $108.9 million. Then don’t forget Travis Wood, Brandon Moss and Joakim Soria all of whom the Royals are paying not to play for them. Combined, that trio will collect $10.25 million from the Royals. That puts the Royals total payroll at just under $120 million. Quite an outlay for a team embarking on a rebuild.

About that. I’ll continue to cling to the idea this is still a team in transition, but another one-year signing doesn’t delay the rebuilding process in the least. You can bemoan about not playing “the youth” all you like, but that doesn’t change one important fact which is there’s simply not much talent in the upper reaches of the farm system. There may be a steady player or two yet to be uncovered, but there’s certainly not a transformative, impact talent that is necessary to elevate this team back into postseason conversation in the near future. Dayton Moore loathes the idea of tanking more than anything (except apparently, porn) and while he faces a major rebuild that will likely take four to five years, he’s still determined to wring every win he can out of his organization. Maybe that’s the wrong play, but there’s absolutely no guarantee losing today will mean winning tomorrow. He’s putting a respectable product on the field. That’s fine, because the focus is on developing the players from the 2017 draft class and cleaning up in the 2018 version. That’s how this team gets back to October. These one-year deals really do nothing to slow The Process 2.0.

Here’s the bottom line: Friday’s Royals roster is better than Thursday’s. And it’s much better than where it stood a month ago. For the grand total of $12 million guaranteed, the Royals added Moustakas, Duda and Jay. Combined, PECOTA projects them for 2.9 WARP. And no one on the roster was projected higher than Moustakas’s 1.3 WARP. And they’re all left-handed bats! Lineup balance achieved!

Still, it’s difficult or impossible to see contention from this team. The lineup is improved but pitching continues to be a weak link. (Oh, hey! There’s Ricky Nolasco!) The new additions can move the win needle in a positive direction, but there’s still no chance they compete for the postseason. They will, however, be interesting to watch. And as they embark on The Process 2.0, that’s all I ask.