A couple disclaimers here. This is based largely on Statcast data. There’s a lot more that goes into this, and I do look at injuries in 2018 and all that, but it’s really driven by the data that doesn’t always tell the whole story. So save your bellyaching. Here are four guys who have a chance to be a big bargain and how the Royals might fit in if needed.

Brian Dozier

In his prime years of age-29 and 30, he hit a combined .269/.349/.522 with 76 homers and 34 steals in 43 attempts. Then he went out last year and hit a combined .215/.305/.391 with 21 homers and 12 steals in 15 attempts for the Twins and Dodgers. What happened? Dozier cited a knee injury from a bone bruise in April as a reason for his tough season. And it’s worth noting that his barrels per plate appearance dropped from 5.5 to 4.3. He was at 5.8 in 2016. His hard hit percentage dropped significantly from 34.5 percent to 28.7 percent. It was at 36.2 percent in 2016. His average exit velocity dropped a bit and his average launch angle, which was already in a good spot went up a little bit. Maybe some loop in his swing from not being able to plant quite as well? And after showing 9.7 fielding runs above average in 2017, he dropped exactly to average in 2018. He’ll be 32, so maybe he’s just in decline as second basemen tend to do, but he has a chance to bring a really nice return. Where the Royals fit in is murky at best, but if they decide to deal Whit Merrifield and want to have a bridge for Nicky Lopez, they could do worse. They could also shift Lopez to third, where he could handle things defensively. I’m not sure there’s a great fit here, but I think some team will get good value from Dozier.

Drew Pomeranz

If he’s healthy could be the title of the Pomeranz biography, so that’s all that matters here, but if the Royals are looking for some depth in the rotation who could also shift to the bullpen. He made 32 starts, threw 173.2 innings and posted a 3.32 ERA with a strikeout per inning in 2017. In the American League East. This past year, he only made 11 starts, threw 74 innings and posted a 6.08 ERA. Injuries, man. But what happened? Based on the numbers, he gave up a lot more squared up balls and the average ball hit against him was hit much harder. His cutter, while still effective in 2018, went from a big time swing and miss offering to one that plenty of contact was made on. But really, it’s a velocity thing with his four seam fastball velocity dropping from 91.4 MPH to 89.5. That’s…precipitous. It had been on the decline for the last few years, but that seems excessive and worth taking a chance on if he’s healthy. You know, maybe he isn’t and it’s not worth it, but he’s a big time potential bargain who could be a big time trade chip if he comes through.

Ervin Santana

Good ol’ friend, Erv, had a pretty rough go of it in 2018. He only threw 24.2 innings, so you won’t find him on the Statcast leaderboards unless you update the minimum batted ball events, so the sample is small enough that you could just argue it’s worth throwing out and not even mentioning. For a guy who went 23-19 with a 3.32 ERA in 392.2 innings the previous two seasons, it’s probably fair to wonder if 2018 was a fluke due to the finger injury that basically cost him the season. I’d argue yes. The hard hit percentage in the limited action was way up from the previous two years. He allowed barrels in 13.8 percent of batted balls. That’s insane. There’s no way he was healthy, and it seems on the surface like it’s not the sort of thing that is likely to linger through an offseason. His spin rates really tell the story with his sinker dropping more than 100 revolutions per second and his four seamer dropping even more than that. Actually, outside of his changeup, all his pitches saw a big-time decreased spin rate. Don’t tell me it wasn’t the finger injury. He went from getting a swing and miss on 38.4 percent of swings on the slider to 14.8 percent. His changeup whiff percentage dropped from 22.2 percent to 13.3 percent. This is a great buy-low opportunity for a guy this front office knows and the fanbase loves. Yes, he’ll be 36, but I’d give him a contract.

Jonathan Schoop

He isn’t technically available yet, but it seems like he’s a good bet to be non-tendered by the Brewers. And with good reason. He hit .233/.266/.416 last season and the peripherals are ugly. The 3.8 percent walk rate would make Alcides Escobar blush. The 23 percent strikeout rate doesn’t fit the profile either. So why is he a bargain? Oblique injuries, man. He saw a drop in barrels per plate appearance percentage from five to 3.6 after sitting at 4.9 in 2016. His hard hit percentage, which sat above average the last two years dropped to 30.6 percent this year. His average exit velocity dropped as well. And so did his launch angle. Basically everything about his profile sort of fell off a cliff. And guess what? He’s entering his age-27 season.

So I think he’s a big-time bounce back candidate. The guy hit .293/.338/.503 in 2017 and got MVP votes (finishing 12^th). Like Dozier, he rated very well defensively in 2017 before dropping to merely average in 2018. His value to the Royals doesn’t depend on a Merrifield deal either (though it would make the most sense). Schoop has the profile of a player who can handle third adequately and he’s played a very little bit of shortstop in the big leagues. You likely don’t want him there every day, but if Mondesi needs a day with a guy like Ian Kennedy on the mound, Schoop should be able to handle it. Given the kind of season he’s capable of turning in, the Royals would do far worse than maybe having Schoop handle third against righties while Dozier/Cuthbert sits, second against lefties while Whit could slide to the outfield for either Goodwin or Phillips and shortstop on occasion to give Mondesi a breather until Nicky Lopez arrives. I really like this idea if he does, in fact, get non-tendered. If he doesn’t, I just wrote too many words about him.

Others fit here. Daniel Murphy could be a bargain with the bat after injuries limited him early in the season before he hit his stride. They’d have to move one or both of Jorge Soler and Jorge Bonifacio because Murphy is a DH at this point, but I guess it’s possible. The same would be true if they brought back Lucas Duda or brought in Logan Morrison, both of whom underperformed some based on their batted ball data or are due for bounce backs. And one other thought on Bonifacio. He has a chance to really come back from a bad season. His numbers were obviously down across the board and you have to wonder how much that had to do with not being on, well, steroids. But even so, I think he’s a guy to watch. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but I’d give him at least a 30 percent chance to break out in a big way in 2019 if he gets the shot.

Red Sox Vitals

Royals vs. Red Sox

Offense

Pitching

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Pitching Matchups

Monday

It sure seems like we’ve been waiting for quite awhile for Rodriguez to break out, which makes it easy to forget he’s only 25 years old. This season has been a mixed bag for him. The numbers are obviously very good, but he’s also only thrown 22.1 innings in four starts, so he isn’t giving a ton of innings. That isn’t a huge deal with the rest of the rotation and their bullpen, but it’s still something he can improve on. It’s also partially because of a bad first start against the Rays about three weeks ago, so maybe I should hold off on the criticism. Rodriguez has used his fastball a little less this season than his career numbers, and the velocity is down a bit too. He’s using his changeup and slider a lot and while the fastball has been fantastic with a .175 average allowed so far, the changeup has been great too, helping to limit extra base hits. He’s also been dynamite against lefties, though the sample is small. They’re 0 for 9 with eight strikeouts against him, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to expect much from Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay or Alex Gordon in this one and Lucas Duda probably shouldn’t even be given a shot to see what he can do.

Hammel has, overall, been really good this year, and a big reason is that he’s started getting way more ground balls, which should help him a little bit in this one. But even with that, he’s striking out less than five per nine and only has a 9 percent swinging strike rate, which is a recipe for disaster against a good lineup in a bandbox park like Fenway is. If you’re betting on Hammel having his first true blowup start of the year, I’d say this is the safe bet. And we can’t talk about Hammel without mentioning his third time through the order issues. This year there aren’t any, but if the Royals operate as if there won’t be, they’re playing with some serious fire. He hasn’t faced a lot of the Red Sox hitters much in his career, but Ramirez is hitting .474/.500/.684 in 20 career plate appearances.

Tuesday

I don’t want to jump to any conclusions, but I’m willing to declare that Sale is good. What is there to say about Sale that hasn’t been said? He gives innings, he strikes a ton of guys out, he doesn’t walk hitters and he doesn’t give up hits. The guy is 6’6” with a crazy difficult to pick up delivery and a great slider. This year, the fastball velocity is a little bit down, but you always wonder with him if that’s by design to try to keep himself fresher for the postseason. Even so, it’s still 93-94, and at that angle, it seems a lot faster. He has allowed three home runs on it and a .226 ISO, so maybe it’s starting to get a little more hittable as he gets older. He’s still struck out 27 batters with it in 62 at bats that ended on it, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves and say it’s anything but great. Unlike Rodriguez, lefties can make contact against him with a .250 average, though in just 17 plate appearances. He’s thrown more innings against the Royals than any other team (by 1/3 of an inning) and is 10-10 with a 2.99 ERA in 162.2 innings. The Royals have hit him at times, but this is a different team, so that might not necessarily tell us much.

Junis is coming off an absolute disaster against the White Sox when he allowed a franchise record tying five home runs. Home runs are kind of the story of his season in his five starts. In the three starts he hasn’t allowed one, he’s 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA. In the two starts he’s allowed them (eight total), he’s 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA. I imagine at some point he’ll pitch well in a start he allows a home run, but given the ballpark he’ll be in, that has to be a bit of a concern. This is his first career start against the Red Sox and their powerful lineup, but he has faced J.D. Martinez a few times and has held him to one single, so that’s something. The big concern for me with Junis in this one is if he doesn’t have his best slider, he’ll be in trouble because the Red Sox as a team actually do pretty well with sliders. If he’s on, it won’t matter because his stuff is that good, but he can’t be anything but nearly 100 percent on.

Wednesday

It sure seems like Pomeranz is hurt a lot, but he has made at least 30 starts in each of the last two seasons, so that’s a bit surprising to me anyway. He started the year on the disabled list this year and made his debut in Oakland about a week and a half ago. Both starts have been pretty rough and he was bit by the home run ball in his second start against the Rays. It’s interesting to me that he had a reverse split last year given that he has similar size to Sale, which should give trouble to lefty hitters. He also isn’t much of a bet to go deep in the game, so if the Royals hitters can at least foul some pitches off, they’ll be done with him and on to the bullpen fairly early. Last year, he only pitched even into the seventh inning 10 times and never got past it. All that said he pitched quite well last year against the Royals in the two starts he made against them, though he didn’t get a decision in either.

Duffy is kind of at a season crossroads here after another rough start, but at least he went six innings for just the second time on the season. The good news from the last two starts is that his walk issue seems to maybe be under control as he’s allowed just three free passes in his last 10.2 innings, but he’s just been too hittable lately and the Red Sox right-handed pop in a day game might be trouble for him. And in four starts at Fenway, he’s gone 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA including allowing three home runs in a game there in 2016. The only Red Sox hitter he has a lot of experience with is Martinez, who he’s held to a .136/.208/.318 line in 24 plate appearances, so at least that’s a good sign. And hey, he had his best game of the year against a solid offense in a hitter’s park in Toronto, so maybe he can repeat that in this one.

The Red Sox are currently the class of the American League (though I still think the Yankees end up on top) and the Royals are currently the dregs of the American League (though I still think the Tigers end up on bottom), so on paper this series is a big time mismatch. On the field, it probably will be too, but you never know, so they’ll still play the series. The way Soler is going right now, I think he might be able to carry the Royals to one victory, so as much as I want to say the Red Sox will sweep this, I think the Royals take one of three.