The Royals could very well surprise when looking for a starting pitcher, but I think they’ll focus on middle of the rotation arms to help lengthen the crew rather than go for the big name at the top. Part of the reason for that is they don’t have the prospect capital to go get one of those pitchers. I do think the system is better than many believe, but when competing with teams with great, deep systems, the Royals will get left in the dark.

Here are the starting pitchers I think they will be targeting in the next few weeks, listed alphabetically:

Trevor Cahill – The starter turned reliever turned starter again has had his injury issues and has only made nine starts this year, but he’s been very good with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.46 DRA. With a base salary of $1.75 million (and an assignment bonus of $250k with a trade), he’s probably the right price for the Royals. What I like about Cahill is that he can give you some starts and then likely slide into the bullpen as a solid piece there if they do make a playoff run. I don’t think he’d cost too much in terms of prospects either.

Andrew Cashner – He’s having a deceiving season. He’s been healthy, but he’s made 14 starts and averaged almost six innings per. The problem is that he’s struck out just 4.4 per nine and walked four per nine. That’s not a good combination. His 3.54 ERA comes with a 4.51 FIP and 5.73 DRA. I would stay as far away from Cashner as possible, but I like to be thorough here. I imagine the Rangers wouldn’t require much of a return on him, so if they’re looking for a guy just to take the ball every fifth day and avoid the young pitchers and/or Travis Wood, I guess he’d fit the bill.

Jhoulys Chacin – He’ s made 18 starts and averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.67 DRA. He’s a back of the rotation starter if there ever was one, but he gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits home runs reasonably well and can be reliable. Like Cahill, he’s super cheap with a salary of $1.75 million and no assignment or other bonus. A move for Chacin wouldn’t make the Royals the favorites or anything but it wouldn’t be bad.

Jesse Chavez – I promise there are guys on this list who aren’t just placeholders in a rotation, but the alphabet is what the alphabet is. Chavez is just another guy, but he’s someone else who has been successful in a relief role in the past, so he could be put there in the postseason in the Chris Young/Kris Medlen role if the Royals get there and be impactful. He’s not nearly as cheap as some of the others on this list with a base salary of $5.75 million and $3 million in incentives, so I see him as unlikely, but the Royals could offer a package that doesn’t part with much to get him.

Marco Estrada – As the Blue Jays inch closer to selling with every loss, I imagine Estrada will be a popular name. He’s having a terrible season with a 5.17 ERA and a 7.41 DRA, but he’d been so good the last two years that you trade for him hoping it’s just a weird blip. He’s struck out a ton of batters and has exhibited his typically fantastic control, but he’s gone from allowing less than seven hits per nine to allowing more than nine. His opponent’s TAv is consistent with the past three seasons (all .261 before this year’s .265), so it does seem that he’s dealing with some bad luck. You might get a really nice middle of the rotation piece with him.

Scott Feldman – Of all the mediocre pitchers on this list, Feldman might be my least favorite for the Royals to acquire, but at a base salary of $2.3 million and maybe another $600k or so in bonuses, he’s inexpensive and has been solid before. It’s probably not fair that I dislike him so much as a target because he has a 3.94 ERA and a 4.36 DRA after posting a 3.97 DRA and a 4.84 DRA mostly in relief last year. He wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects, you wouldn’t think, so this is a real possibility.

Jaime Garcia – Garcia hasn’t exactly been the picture of health throughout his career, but he’s made 16 starts this year and hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been good. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 5.05 DRA with not enough strikeouts and too many walks. He’s also not especially cheap. I’d pass here, but Jon Heyman listed him, so I will too, I guess.

Jesse Hahn – I’m not sure what it is about Hahn I like, but the A’s don’t share that with me, and with good reason. He’s posted a 5.30 ERA and 5.77 DRA this year after a 6.02 ERA and 6.82 DRA last season. I remember being a fan prior to the 2016 season and not really knowing where things went wrong. I’d take a shot on the potential that he could get back to where he was before with Eiland working with him. He’s limited home runs well for the most part in his career, so maybe they can fix him. Hahn would likely require a return that the Royals might not love to part with, but I think what he could be as a middle of the rotation starter would be worth the shot.

J.A. Happ – This is potentially a waste of space, but I can’t get it out of my head that the Blue Jays would be a good match for Jorge Soler, and I can’t stop thinking about Soler for Happ. After being fixed in Pittsburgh, he had a good showing in the 2016 AL Cy Young race, winning 20 games with a 3.18 ERA. He’s followed it up this season with a 3.54 ERA and 4.09 DRA. He’s not great, but he’s definitely a solid arm who could make a rotation better. I don’t even know if the Blue Jays would trade him, but if they can get some right-handed power for a few seasons in return, maybe.

Derek Holland – I lied about Feldman. Holland is my least favorite player on this list, but Heyman mentioned him too, so here he is. Dayton, if you’re reading this, don’t do it.

Tom Koehler – A quick glance at Koehler’s numbers and you might vomit, but this is kind of out of nowhere for him, and the Royals would have him for another season. Maybe it’s not worth it, but for a guy with an ERA of 8.00 and a DRA of 7.25, you might be able to get him for a song and see if you can get him back to his back of the rotation stuff.

Ivan Nova – I’m not sure Nova would even be available, especially not for a price the Royals should pay, but his insanely good control is appealing. He doesn’t strike many out, so I’d hesitate a bit with him, but he’s averaging 20 outs per start, and there’s a ton of value there even if it just gets you through the regular season. Of course, if you’re giving up what you’d likely give up, you’d hate to just get through the regular season with it.

Edinson Volquez – A reunion with Ed could be in the offing given what the Royals need. He’s had an okay season for Miami with a high point of a no-hitter earlier this year. The issue is he’s walked far too many batters this season, but he has a 4.19 ERA and a 3.65 DRA. The bigger issue is that he’s owed $13 million next season. The Marlins would have to eat some money on this deal, but at that point, the prospect haul might be too much for him. I don’t think it’s likely, but I imagine the Royals will at least call to find out if they can make it happen.

I should note that in the original version of this article, I had Dan Straily of the Marlins listed. He’s cost-controlled and team-controlled and good. If he were to become available, he’d be my top choice, but it seems as if the Marlins aren’t interested in dealing him, so he was removed from this list.

Stay tuned for position players and relievers the Royals could target over the next couple days.

It was announced late Monday that Edinson Volquez was the latest Royal from the 2015 World Series title team to exit, taking his talents to South Beach (sorry, that’s a tired phrase) to pitch for the Miami Marlins.  If you want to look at the fool’s errand that is free agency, consider he will earn $22 million for his next two seasons. That’s a raise from his contract in Kansas City where he made $20 million for two years.

Volquez provided the Royals with 2.0 WARP in his two seasons (exactly 1 WARP each year), but clearly stumbled in 2016. His strikeout rate was down. His walk rate was up. His home run rate increased, too. His DRA jumped from 4.66 in 2015 to 4.90 last summer. Among qualified starters, that was the 13th worst rate in baseball.

There are other warning signs beyond the obvious. Batters turned on more pitches last season against Volquez as their pull rate against him jumped nearly six percent. His swinging strike rate dropped

Basically, it was a smart business decision to let Volquez depart. There’s too much risk in a 33 year old arm that clearly took a step back last year. It was also a smart decision on the part of the Royals not to hang a qualifying offer on Volquez. Yes, he ultimately did better, but not by so much. And when you factor in the draft pick that would have been attached to him… Let’s just say the Royals knew what they were doing.

Anyway, the point of this isn’t to bury Volquez. He suffered through a dreadful 2016, but he was a massive part of the 2015 championship team. Let’s take a quick look back at a couple key moments of his Royals career.

ALCS Game One
6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 R, 4 BB, 5 SO

Volquez helped set the tone in the ALCS opener against Toronto. He allowed a two-out baserunner in the first, fourth, and fifth innings, but was able to keep things under control. With the Royals holding a 3-0 lead in the top of the sixth, Volquez wavered, walking the first two batters of the inning. He rallied, striking out Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki, to escape the jam.

The Royals would win that game 5-0.

World Series Game One
6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO

This game isn’t so notable for the performance of Volquez, but the circumstances. His father passed away hours before he took the mound, the third Royal who lost a parent that year. He pitched not knowing. Yet everyone watching at home, and I would assume nearly everyone at the stadium, had heard the news. It was by turns inspiring and gut-wrenching at the same time.

He cruised through the first two innings, stumbled a bit in the third, then allowed a single tally in each of the next three innings. It was a high wire act notable for keeping his composure and his team in the game.

We know how this one ended.

World Series Game Five
6 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 SO

After traveling home for the funeral of his father, Volquez returned to the team and started the title clinching game. It was a rocky start as he surrendered a home run to Curtis Granderson to lead off the game. Volquez settled down, though, and cruised through the next four innings before giving up another run in the sixth.

We know how this one ended.

The 2015 postseason was notable for Volquez for an increase of velocity on nearly all his pitches. His average two-seamer was coming in around 95 mph, nearly 1.5 mph faster than his regular season average. His pitches seemed to have more bite, too. His performance was an example of an athlete elevating his game at the highest stage.

While his 2016 can only be considered a disappointment, his October of 2015 was integral in brining a World Series title back to Kansas City. He will always be Forever Royal.

Instead, the Royals have spent the time since the close of 2016 to take care of some housekeeping. Let’s take a look at each move and see what it means in the frame of the larger picture.

First, they picked up their options on closer Wade Davis and shortstop Alcides Escobar. There was never any doubt. Escobar will make $6.5 million next year while Davis pockets $10 million.

I understand some of the angst surrounding the Escobar option. Really, I do. Escobar magic and #PeakEsky aside, he’s simply not a good shortstop. Defensively, he looks like he’s lost a step (or if you’re into accuracy, at least a step and a half) and really just didn’t impress with the glove. Offensively…woof. Add it all up and you have a player who was worth 0.7 BWARP which is our value for Wins Above Replacement. That ranks 20th out of 21 qualified shortstops. Wait. It gets worse. The shortstop in 21st place, Alexei Ramirez, finished with 506 plate appearances. In other words, had Ramirez not made a start at short for the Rays in game 162, Escobar gets the “crown” of worst everyday shortstop as ranked by BWARP.

However, a move like this doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The market surely would value Escobar at his $6.5 million, and probably more. And were he a free agent, I imagine he would field at least one offer for multiple years of service. While it may not feel like it, the $6.5 million due Escobar is a fair rate for the Royals. Of course, every year his contract has increased means it becomes less likely he provides the Royals with surplus value. Such are baseball economics.

Another factor to consider is the Royals do not have an in-house option to cover the position for an entire season. Raul Mondesi is still the heir apparent, but if you watched him hit last summer, he’s in worse shape at the plate than Escobar. What the Royals need to do now is limit Escobar’s exposure to the plate. That means they need to stop hitting him leadoff and buying into the canard that is Escobar Magic. Like billy goat curses, it doesn’t exist.

The next option that was exercised was for Davis. The only thing that would have prevented the Royals from doing this would have been a catastrophic arm injury. Now the Royals hold an exceptional reliever at a cost that is below market value for such a pitcher. And, as you saw in the postseason, the usage of such pitchers and therefore their value is on the uptick.

This is good news for the Royals. They have some leverage heading into the meeting season. It feels like the Royals have always valued their bullpen a little more that other teams, so it would be a bit of a surprise if they dealt away their closer. On the other hand, they shouldn’t discount their past success in finding quality bullpen arms. They could trade Davis, get a key part for the upcoming season and probably find a suitable replacement.

The next order of business was when Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez both declined their portion of a mutual option. Had both sides agreed to pick up the options, Morales would have made $11 million. He gets a $1.5 million buyout. Volquez was due $10 million, but gets $3 million to move on from the Royals.

Again, these are mutual options which is just a procedural way to divert some cash while adding it to the back end of a contract. The Royals in particular use it to their benefit.

Both players create a void. Morales has been a key switch-hitting bat in the middle of the order the last two summers. Volquez struggled in 2016, but you cannot discount the contributions he made in the run to the title the year before.

The next step in the process is the qualifying offer, which the Royals can hang on both players. Let’s just say it’s highly unlikely. There’s a real danger that either (or both) would accept. Volquez’s finish means there’s absolutely zero chance the Royals offer one to him. The local media seems to think there’s a possibility that Morales gets one.

The old saw is there’s no such thing as a bad one year contract. I’d have to think there’s an exception for a one year, $17.2 million contract in a small market to a designated hitter.

There’s nothing to say the Royals can’t bring Morales back on a different contract. Rewind yourself to when Billy Butler hit free agency and the Royals were talking about rotating the designated hitter position. While it’s been something of an American League luxury for the last several years for the Royals to have a permanent DH, the amount of money the position commands makes it prudent for the Royals to explore all alternatives. If that means finding a couple of platoon bats and rotating among the regulars getting a day off in the field, so be it.

Finally, the Royals declined their part of the mutual option on Luke Hochevar for $7 million. He will receive a $500k buyout instead. Hochevar had picked up his portion of the option, which means he doesn’t think he can earn more on the open market, and after his health issues of last summer, he’s probably right. He had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in August, and with an expected recovery time of six months, he will be ready for spring training.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sign another two year (with an option) contract like the one he signed coming off of Tommy John surgery. As mentioned before, the Royals crave bullpen stability. Hochevar can provide that.

The Royals were officially eliminated from playoff contention this week, so we tried to put the 2016 season in perspective as it approaches its end.

In the second segment, Jeff and Mike shared their memories of the first Royals game they attended (or, at least, the game they were old enough to remember going to).

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

Why, Ned? Why?

The decisive bottom of the ninth will be discussed a lot, at least until tomorrow night’s game. During the top of the ninth, TV viewers were shown Brian Flynn and Wade Davis warming up for the bottom half of the inning. When the Royals failed to score and create a save situation, manager Ned Yost went with Flynn. The lefthanded walked the leadoff man, Jose Ramirez. If you’ve ever listened to Denny Matthews, you know: “leadoff walk…late innings…close game.” Coco Crisp put down a sacrifice bunt that Flynn couldn’t field cleanly. Now the Royals were in deep doodoo. They caught a break when Abraham Almonte’s bunt bounced right in front of home plate and Salvador Perez was able to throw to third for a forceout. And when the Indians went to pinch-hitter Rajai Davis for lefty Tyler Naquin, Yost walked to the mound and summoned…Joakim Soria.

I’ll say this for Yost: he’s consistent. Would anyone else turn to Soria in a tight spot after the leads he’s blown this year? Especially when Davis was presumably still warm? Yet Soria almost got out of it, deflecting a grounder with his foot right to first baseman Eric Hosmer for the second out. But Brandon Guyer hit a fly ball down the right field line, and it landed both just fair and just out of Paulo Orlando’s reach. Frankly, it looked catchable to me. Instead, it was a walkoff double. For the record, Flynn took the loss in this one; after all, it was his walk and fielding error that started the mess and made sure Soria’s kicksave was only the second out.

Because Baseball

The two starting pitchers in this game, Kansas City’s Edinson Volquez and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin, weren’t exactly on fire entering this match. In his previous 10 starts, Volquez had been knocked around: a sterling 7.46 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. Tomlin had somehow been worse than that; in his last eight outings (seven starts and one relief appearance), he’d compiled a lofty 9.64 ERA in 32 2/3 innings. So of course both pitchers had really good nights. In fact, they had remarkably similar nights. Both worked 6 2/3 innings, leaving with a runner on base. Volquez allowed four hits (including a Carlos Santana home run in the third) and walked three; Tomlin gave up five hits and no walks. Tomlin had three strikeouts, Volquez had five. And neither one qualified for the win. Baseball is a funny game.

Speed Kills

The Royals’ lone run off Tomlin came in the fifth. With one out, Salvador Perez doubled to left. Alex Gordon followed with a single to left. Abraham Almonte, obviously worried about Perez’s speed, took a peek at the runner as he tried to field the ball. Bad idea. The ball bounced off his glove, and Perez scored standing up on the error. This being the 2016 Royals, though, of course Gordon was stranded at second.

Stranding Runners Also Kills (So Does A Shifting Strike Zone)

I’m not here to blame the umpires for this loss. Too many other things happened. But the Royals had a great chance to take the lead in the eighth. With one out, Cheslor Cuthbert singled. In the dugout, Yost broke open the glass case labeled “Open In Case A Run Is Needed” and brought out pinch-runner deluxe Terrance Gore, who stole second and took third on a wild pitch. But Christian Colon struck out looking. Here, you make the call on pitch number six, especially after noting where pitch number one is.

Up next, Whit Merrifield. He also struck out looking, probably on a worse pitch.

Perhaps this is sour grapes, but with calls like that, Cleveland should win the division. Good grief.

On Deck

The series continues tomorrow night at 6:10 Central time with a pretty nice pitching matchup: Ian Kennedy for the Royals against Cleveland’s Corey Kluber. Be there or be square.

However, for the offense to be good enough to win, the pitching needs to improve. In fairness, the pitching hasn’t been awful this year, even though it’s felt like it sometimes. As a staff, the Royals have an ERA+ of 105. They’ve allowed 4.32 runs per game; the AL average is 4.48. But those numbers paper over a staff that gives up too many walks (370, fourth-highest total in the league) and home runs (158, third-highest in the league and a staggering figure for a team playing in Kauffman Stadium).

A look at the Defensive Runs Allowed stat on the mothership shows the Royals are 18th in baseball and eighth in the American League at 4.38. That fits the stats above, showing a staff that is basically middle-of-the-pack. It’s been a team effort. The bullpen ranks 16th in baseball and ninth in the AL at 4.17; the starters are 19th and ninth at 4.50.

With a (presumably healthy) Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Matt Strahm, and the possibility of adding free agent Greg Holland back to the mix, the bullpen should be fine next year. My main concern is that rotation.

Last year, the Royals got 109 combined starts from Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, and Danny Duffy. The other 53 starts were made by a grab bag of pitchers: Joe Blanton, Johnny Cueto, Kris Medlen, Yohan Pino, Jason Vargas, and Chris Young. Despite the impermanence of that fifth spot in the rotation, the Royals went 30-23 in those 53 games. And they did that despite going just 4-9 in Cueto’s starts.

This year, the Royals have had 89 combined starts from their top four guys: Volquez, Ventura, Ian Kennedy, and Duffy. Despite some inconsistent years from three of those pitchers, the Royals have gone 50-39 in those games (14-3 in Duffy starts, if you were wondering). Even though the combination of Ventura/Kennedy/Volquez has been decidedly average, they’ve shown that as long as there is a Duffy-type leader of the rotation, they can be a serviceable group.

The other 29 starts this year have come from Young, Medlen, Dillon Gee, and Flynn. The Royals are 8-21 in those games. There’s your season. Just six or seven more wins, just going about .500 in those games, and the Royals would be in the thick of the playoff race, even with their other issues. That record isn’t a fluke, by the way. Those four have a whopping 7.17 ERA in 128 innings as starters.

So yeah, finding another dependable starter would be huge for the 2017 Royals. Volquez may not be a Royal next year; he and the team have a $10 million mutual option to discuss, or the Royals can buy him out for $3 million. Frankly, I’m not sure the Royals should pick up that option, even though that might add to their shopping list. After Sunday’s start, he has an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.46. He just hasn’t been effective. As you can see from this chart, his velocity is dropping as the season goes on. It might be time to cut ties.

The good news is that Vargas should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery by next spring. In fact, he would be at that 20-month mark that is considered the point when a pitcher is really ready to return to their previous level of performance. So with Duffy, Vargas, Ventura, and Kennedy, the Royals look to have a pretty solid group of starters. Just like last year, and just like this year. The difference is going to be in that fifth spot.

In-house candidates include Gee, Flynn, Mike Minor, Strahm, and Young. I think the performances of Gee and Young have eliminated them from consideration next year even though they’ve been fine as relievers. Flynn has also been effective in the bullpen. Strahm could be a starter someday, although I’m not sure he’s ready. My guess is the Royals either keep him as a reliever to get used to the majors or send him to Omaha to continue developing as a starter. Either way, I’m not counting on him being in the rotation next April. Minor has been trying to complete a rehab assignment most of the season, so I’m not sure he’s a consideration either. He will certainly be in the mix next spring, but it’s hard to say he’s a solution right now.

The Royals do have some intriguing possibilities in the minors, but I don’t think any of them are ready to be in the majors for a team trying to win now. Jake Junis and Alec Mills have just reached Triple-A recently. Both have potential; both probably need more time.

The list of potential free agent starters available this winter is, uh, suboptimal. Andrew Cashner and Jeremy Hellickson might be the leading possibilities there. Those two are likely to get more money than they really should, and the Royals probably aren’t winning a bidding war for their services. Both would likely be adequate, but not really worth the money.

That leaves a trade. With the current logjam developing at third base, perhaps the Royals could explore dealing Mike Moustakas, Cuthbert, or Hunter Dozier. Another possibility is trading Lorenzo Cain, if Dozier appears capable of playing right field, and letting Orlando be the starter in center field. Both options are gambles, but in the third base situation, at least between Moustakas and Cuthbert the Royals can feel assured that third base is in good hands.

However the Royals choose to solve this dilemma, it is encouraging that they really are that close to being good again. It’s actually a bit shocking that the pitchers they assembled to possibly fill out the rotation this year all pitched so poorly. That’s baseball, I suppose, but it’s not much fun this year. The Royals will need better luck and better choices to contend in 2017.

A lot was made of the big deal he signed with the Royals, and when a guy signs for the second largest total amount in team history, there will be eyes on him. If he falters, he will be called out. And that seems to be what’s happened with Kennedy this season.

Let’s take a look at the numbers. He’s thrown 133.2 innings this season, which is the second most on the Royals. In those 133.2 innings, he’s allowed just 115 hits, which is the second least of any of the Royals four qualified starters. He has a 3.91 ERA and a 113 ERA+. Those are both second among the Royals four qualified starters. He’s struck out 134, which is also the second most of any of the Royals four qualified starters. He’s walked 45. Want to guess where that ranks among Royals qualified starters? That’s right, second. I knew you had it in you.

So I think it’s fair to say that based on those numbers, he’s been the second best starter this season, behind the surprising Danny Duffy.

That says there’s a lot of good with Kennedy this year, especially relative to the Royals pitching staff. But there’s also some bad, and I think that’s a big reason why there are some in the Royals universe convinced that Ian Kennedy is actually bad.

I think the innings he’s thrown haven’t been there as expected, which has been a point of contention with some, so that’s there. I don’t think it’s the biggest reason, though.

He’s given up an awful lot of home runs. Giving up home runs doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a bad pitcher. It doesn’t help, but if you’re not giving up much more, you can still survive. This year, Kennedy is in a dog fight with Josh Tomlin, R.A. Dickey, friend Chris Young and Jered Weaver for most homers allowed. A couple other friends, Brandon Finnegan and James Shields, may also factor in before it’s all said and done, too.

So he’s given up a lot of home runs, and I think that skews perception in two ways. One, home runs are instant offense. You know that. It’s no secret. When a home run is hit, there’s at least one run scored for whoever hits it. Sometimes, there’s even more than one run.  So it looks bad. Think about Kennedy’s start on Wednesday. He gave up just one run over 6.1 innings, but it was a home run to J.B. Shuck. I mean, come on. Shuck? It looks bad. When he hit it, I’m sure many thought, “Oh boy, here we go again.”

So home runs aren’t aesthetically pleasing when your favorite team is giving them up. But another reason that home runs can be something to make you believe a pitcher is bad is there’s a statistic that’s become much more mainstream these days that I personally think overvalues the home run. That’s FIP. You’ve heard of it. Some of you have probably wondered what it is. Some of you know what it is. Some of you don’t care what it is.

Here’s how FIP is calculated:

FIP=((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP+FIP Constant

That constant varies and it’s based on the league ERA and the same formula used to calculate the actual FIP. That part isn’t all that important for this discussion. What you may notice is that FIP looks at just four components. It’s home runs, strikeouts, walks and innings. And that’s it. I don’t want to get into a long message about why FIP isn’t nearly as accurate an indicator as it both used to be and as some believe, but it really hurts a guy like Ian Kennedy.

The guy’s ERA is 3.91, but his FIP is a whopping 4.96 (5.00 by some other slightly tweaked calculations, but it’s in the same ballpark). Why? It’s because he gives up a lot of home runs. And I get that to some extent because the home run is instant offense. A guy can give up four singles in an inning and not allow a run, while Kennedy could strike out the side and allow just one batter to reach and give one run up.

I’m going to give you one more short point about why I think FIP is skewing perception of Kennedy and then I’ll move on, I swear.

I’m going to give you a pitcher’s line and you tell me if he’s having a better season than Kennedy, knowing his numbers, or worse.

That’s the line for Volquez this year. He’s thrown a similar number of innings per start, but he’s struck out 27 less batters, walked nine more and given up 30 (!) more runs than Kennedy. His FIP is 4.36. By that metric, he’s actually a better bet moving forward to succeed than Kennedy. That’s kind of hard for me to believe.

That’s not to say FIP isn’t useful. As with basically any other stat, it’s about how you use it, and it’s important to remember there are blinders with just about any stat you can look at.

Since FIP was created years ago, some other ERA indicator stats have been released that I think are a little more accurate. They’re not quite as easy to calculate, which makes people skeptical of them, but two I like a lot are DRA (deserved run average) and SIERA (skill-interactive ERA). Both are just a bit more comprehensive than FIP.

Kennedy’s DRA is 3.90. His SIERA is 4.06.

It might be easy to ding me for believing in those two stats because I think they fit my argument better, and I guess that’s sort of fair, but at the same time, I’m growing wearier and wearier of FIP’s usefulness given the alternatives out there. By the way, Volquez’s DRA is 5.11 and his SIERA is 4.55.

Back to Kennedy specifically, there’s a lot to like with what he’s done this season. He’s kept the team in the game way more often than not, allowing two or less runs in 15 of his 23 starts, a rate that’s on par with guys like Chris Sale and Cole Hamels. He’s gone six or more innings 14 out of 23 times and only failed to get through five innings three times. And one of those times was that weird rain delay game in Minnesota when he came back out after the delay and struggled.

Some might believe Kennedy is overpaid, and relative to the total payroll of the Royals, he probably is. In terms of baseball money, that’s not especially true. A win on the free agent market is worth around $8 million. He’s been worth 2.4 WARP this year and was at 2.2 and 2.3 the last two seasons. He’s averaged around 2.7 WARP for every 33 starts he makes. He’s on pace for about a 3.4 WARP this year, so even if you peg him for a decline of 0.5 every year, he’s set to be worth 12 WARP over the life of his deal, which in present day money is worth about $96 million, or $26 million more than he’s owed.

Honestly, I think there’s a chance he might opt out after next season, especially if he puts up another quality season next year like he did this year. The 2017/2018 market isn’t exactly littered with aces. There are some nice names, but Kennedy only has to exceed $43 million in guaranteed money to make it worth his while. Sure he’ll be 33, but two solid seasons might allow him to exceed that. I’m not going to predict it, but it’s not as far-fetched as a lot believe.

Whatever he does at the end of 2017, it’s clear to me that Kennedy has been pretty good this year. And I’m pretty good with that.

Despite the poor overall numbers, things have been quite a bit better for the rotation since the All-Star Break. American League starters had a 4.51 ERA in the first half of the season, because apparently, all American League games were played in Coors Field during the first half. The Royals’ rotation had a 4.99 ERA, ranking 12th in the league. Since the break, they still rank in the lower half, at 9th, but their 4.18 ERA is not far from the league average of 4.07. Obviously you’d prefer to see a smaller number there, but the starters have generally kept the Royals in more games over the last month.

Ian Kennedy has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his six starts in the second half. Yordano Ventura has done so in all five of his starts. Danny Duffy has held opponents to three or fewer runs in four of his five starts. Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee have not done as well, combining for four such starts in nine tries. But overall, the rotation has been solid enough to win some games. The offense, well, has not.

Getting back to the rotation, we can see the first thing that jumps out is the home run rate. In the first half, Royals starters allowed 1.66 home runs per nine innings, easily the highest rate in the league. In the second half, they’re at 1.39 home runs per nine innings, which is the seventh-highest rate in the league. Again, that’s still not great, but it’s better, and because they’ve allowed fewer hits overall, the dingers they have allowed haven’t done quite as much damage.

Other than Volquez and Gee, the main starters have all allowed a lower slugging percentage since the break as well. Ventura has knocked nearly 40 points off of opponents’ OPS against him, Duffy has lowered it by 80 points, and Kennedy has dropped it by 11 points. Okay, so that last one isn’t that much lower, but it is lower, therefore I’m still correct. So there.

Oddly enough, Royals starters have a lower strikeout rate since the All-Star Break, at 18.9 percent, compared to 21 percent before the break. That could signify a shift in approach, getting back to attacking the zone more often, and while it still may be the case, they haven’t been able to drastically reduce their walk rate. After digging a bit deeper, it looks like the strikeout discrepancy is a bit fluky.

Opposing batters are actually swinging and missing at more pitches in the second half than they were in the first half. Prior to the break, Royals starters induced a swinging strike rate of 9.7 percent, and that’s gone up to 10.3 percent since the break. That’s not a huge increase, but the fact that it’s increased at all is at odds with the significant drop in strikeout rate. I would expect to see that balance out with a few more strikeouts as the season progresses.

It’s been a long, long season for starting pitchers not named Danny Duffy. That could be changing. A couple of guys are still trying to find themselves as the summer has worn on, but the Royals rotation doesn’t appear to be in quite as bad of shape as it once did. Kennedy and Ventura have righted the ship from a rocky first half, while Duffy’s taken his game to yet another level.

And yet, it’s all been for naught, because the offense has scored 13 runs total in the last month. Don’t check my math on that, but I’m pretty sure it’s accurate.

Had Royals batters done just a bit more at the plate, the team likely would be much closer to the Indians, whose rotation has a whopping 5.09 ERA since the break.

Of course, the offense isn’t solely to blame, as the bullpen has had plenty of horrendous nights as well, putting up an unsightly 5.40 ERA of their own.

To recap: in the first half, Royals starters dug their team into too many early holes, while the bullpen did enough to scratch some wins together with an offense that wasn’t doing much. In the second half, the bullpen and offense have given the starters a minuscule margin for error, so any slight increase in production hasn’t had any real effect.

That’s the season for the Royals. They haven’t been able to sustain good performances from multiple parts of the team, and even when there are good performances, the bad performances make any overall impact marginal.

If there’s anything to take away from this trend, it’s that average starting pitching is more enjoyable to watch than terrible starting pitching, and perhaps this could be a sign of better things to come in 2017. But these improvements will simply be too little and too late for this year’s squad.

A three-run Todd Frazier bomb ended this one in a particularly brutal fashion. The old Royals bullpen, it ain’t what it used to be.

Offense MIA

After Eric Hosmer staked the Royals to a two run lead with a single in the third, 13 consecutive Royals walked to the plate and 13 consecutive Royals returned to the dugout. Raul Mondesi broke the streak with a walk with two down in the seventh. From that Hosmer single to Kendrys Morales leading off the ninth, that walk was their only base runner.

Who knows? Maybe just a little more offense and we aren’t talking ninth inning comeback and 10th inning collapse. That’s kind of the story of the entire 2016 Royals lineup. What could have – or should have – been.

The TTO Penalty

It’s often very real, except when it isn’t. Makes sense, right?

In the case of Edinson Volquez, it doesn’t matter so much when opposing batters step in the box. His results are remarkably similar the first, second, and third time through the order.

Except when it doesn’t work out the way it should. On Tuesday, Volquez retired the eighth and ninth place White Sox hitters to open the fifth. Then, Chicago hijacked the singles train, stringing together five consecutive base hits to plate three runs. It spoiled what had been, to that point, a sexy outing from Volquez.

He ended up going six innings, allowing two more hits before his night was finished. So the damage the third time through the order looked like this: Nine plate appearances, seven singles, one double play, and three runs.

Tip Of The Cap

I’ll just leave this right here.

We’ve heard for years Raul Mondesi possesses a plus glove and arm. We’ve seen it on display in our small sample at The K. Make no mistake about it, we’re watching the Royals shortstop of the future. When does that future begin? It could be as soon as next season. Alcides Escobar has an option, but looks like he’s lost a step on defense and has become an abysmal sinkhole on offense. Soon, my friends. Soon.

Super Strahm

If you’re looking for a bright spot in the late innings, how about Matt Strahm. All the rookie did was face seven batters, allowing one single while striking out five. All on swinging strikes. For the evening, Strahm threw 30 pitches and had eight swinging strikes. Five on his fastball and three on his curve. He’s touching 98 mph on the heater and chasing that with 78 mph off speed. And he’s locating both for strikes.

Three of his strikeouts were on the curve and two on the fastball. See if you can spot them on the pitch plot.

Look low for the fifth strikeout. Really low. Filthy.

Strahm looks like something special. A bright spot in a dreary summer.

Up Next

Game two of this series starts at 7:15. Ian Kennedy takes the mound against Jose Quintana. Read all about the match-up in our series preview.

Two weeks ago, we talked about who the Royals might acquire at the trade deadline. Last week, we talked about who they might sell at the deadline.

Turns out, after injuries to Luke Hochevar and Wade Davis, the Royals ended up with a pretty quiet deadline. We talked about the factors that lead to the lack of activity and what might happen next.

After the break, we talked about Danny Duffy’s incredible start against Tampa and what it may mean for him going forward. He’s had a rocky road, but his work in the rotation this season could signal an emergence as a force.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).