Well Eric Hosmer has made it official and his signing with the San Diego Padres moves the Royals into a true period of transition.

We discussed his new contract and how it works for him and how the Royals come away with pretty good compensation, too. The next rebuild is underway and 2018 becomes intriguing to see who can stick on the big league roster, as well as to see who emerges from the minor leagues. The Royals have a lot of draft picks as well. The team’s record…now that might be a little rough.

Along with softening the blow of that loss, we take a big picture view of the organization and why it shouldn’t be another 30 years until the next success. Wrapping up, Mike shared a Dayton Moore travel story.

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It’s most definitely real. As a practicing sabermetrician, I’m not supposed to admit this. It’s not in the party platform. Several of my comrades from other websites will scoff at my lead. Nonsense! It’s a fallacy! I can already hear the jeers.

Yet the Clutch Gene is real. And spectacular.

Long-time Royals watchers will point directly to George Brett. My god, did that guy ever own the Clutch Gene. A great player, a Hall of Famer, one of the best ever to play the game, he somehow managed to elevate his game at just the right moment when the spotlight shone the brightest. Of the most identifiable moments from the first run of franchise glory, almost all of them feature Number Five.

Thirty years later, we saw it again. Another Royal who stepped forward when the team desperately needed a hit, when the team needed someone to bring them across the finish line.

Eric Hosmer has the Clutch Gene.

Go ahead and scoff. But deep in your sabermetric heart, you know it’s true. Witness:

2014 AL Wild Card
Oakland 8, Royals 7
B12 – Triple
wWPA – 30%

The Greatest Game Ever Played was highlighted by big hits and amazing moments. Salvador Perez slashed the game winning hit, but nothing happens without Hosmer coming this close to a home run in left-center for a one out triple. He scored two pitches later on a Christian Colon chopper to tie the game. When I say nothing happens, make sure you think about that for a moment. Without that triple, without that win, everything likely changes. I write this without hyperbole: That was the defining hit for the franchise.

Oh, yeah. Hosmer also walked in the first, drove home the go-ahead run in the third, walked in the eighth and scored the run that cut the deficit to one, and singled in the 10th.

2014 ALDS, Game 2
Royals 2, Angels 2
T11 – Home Run
wWPA – 43%

Mike Moustakas broke a tie the night earlier, now it was Hosmer’s turn to step forward again. With Lorenzo Cain on first, Hosmer drilled one into the right field seats to propel the Royals to a 2-0 lead in the series.

2014 ALDS, Game 3
Angels 1, Royals 3
B3 – Home Run
wWPA – 12%

So many of the Hosmer clutch moments weren’t game winners like the previous entry, rather they were hits that pushed a game out of reach. This was the case on a rainy Sunday night at The K. After chasing starter CJ Wilson in the first, the Royals held a two run lead into the third. With Nori Aoki on first, Hosmer crushed a 2-0 pitch to put the game, and the series, out of reach.

2014 ALCS, Game 3
Orioles 1, Royals 1
B6 – Single
wWPA – 10%

With the Royals holding a 2-0 lead in the 2014 ALCS, the series moved to Kauffman for a pair of nailbiters. In the first one, with the Royals struggling to get anything going against Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen, Aoki led off the sixth with a single. After a Cain strikeout, Hosmer singled, advancing pinch runner Jarrod Dyson to third. Dyson scored the game winning run on a Billy Butler sac fly.

2014 ALCS, Game 4
Orioles 0, Royals 0
B1 – Fielders Choice
wWPA – 12%

Sometimes, all you have to do is put the ball in play. With the first two batters of the game reaching base against starter Miguel Gonzales, Hosmer hit a ground ball to first. We’d seen it a thousand times where he would roll his wrists and pull a ball on the ground. With Alcides Escobar breaking from third on contact, the throw comes home, but the catcher Donnie Joseph can’t hold on to the ball. Aoki follows him home. The Royals made those two runs stand for 24 more outs and their first trip to the World Series in 29 years.

2014 World Series, Game 3
Royals 2, Giants 0
T6 – Single
wWPA – 8%

This one won’t register as highly as others on this list, but it’s just as impressive. With the Royals holding a 1-0 lead through five, they tack on another with an Alex Gordon double in the top of the sixth. With two out and Gordon still at second, Hosmer battled through an 11 pitch plate appearance before singling to center to bring home the third run. That was the margin of the game as the Giants found two runs of their own in the bottom half of the frame.

2015 ALDS, Game 2
Astros 4, Royals 2
B6 – Single
wWPA – 12%

This wasn’t the biggest event of the game. That would come later in the inning. However, with the Royals 13 outs from a 2-0 deficit in the best of five series, the pressure was mounting as Hosmer approached the plate with Cain at second. Down 0-2, Hosmer lined a slider off lefty Oliver Perez to move the game to within a run.

2015 ALDS, Game 4
Royals 3, Astros 6
T8 – Single
wWPA – 15%

Royals 7, Astros 6
T9 – Home Run
wWPA – 12%

You know all about this one. Keep the line moving. The big hit in the eighth came from Kendrys Morales, the little spinner that found it’s way up the middle to tie the game. Hosmer’s single was the second most important event in that inning.

The home run off Josh Fields in the ninth is something that was almost as important. With a one run lead, Hosmer gave his team the extra padding to deflate the Astros as the series moved back to Kansas City for the fifth and deciding game. It was 453 feet of destruction.

2015 ALDS, Game 5
Astros 2, Royals 0
B4 – Single
wWPA – 12%

Again, the Royals were facing a deficit. It really seemed like they were clawing out of some sort of danger the entire series. Again, it was Hosmer to the rescue. Not with the game winning hit, rather another single to open the scoring and chip away at the lead.

2015 ALCS, Game 2
Blue Jays 3, Royals 0
B7 – Single
wWPA – 18%

It’s almost the same as the game above. Down to David Price, who cruised through six innings, the Royals plated five in the seventh to break the game open and take a 2-0 series lead. Hosmer opened the scoring with a single to center. He also scored the final run of the game after a two out walk in the bottom of the eighth.

2015 ALCS, Game 6
Blue Jays 3, Royals 3
B8 – Single
wWPA – 22%

No words needed. Just turn up the sound and soak it all in.

If, for some reason, you don’t decide to play the video, the screencap of Hosmer’s reaction says everything.

2015 World Series, Game 2
Mets 1, Royals 1
B5 – Single
wWPA – 22%

The Royals ran away with this one in the later innings, but for the first four and a half frames, things were tight. Three consecutive Royals reached to open the inning, but it looked like the Mets and Jacob deGrom were going to escape. Hosmer approached with two down and grounded one back up the middle for the go ahead score. Moustakas brought home Hosmer for the third run in the inning.

2015 World Series, Game 4
Mets 3, Royals 2
T8 – Reached on E4
wWPA – 32%

Hey, nobody said being clutch was about getting a base hit. Like Game Four of the 2014 ALCS, Hosmer needed to put the ball in play. It was a little chopper to second. With runners on first and second, Daniel Murphy has no shot at turning two, but didn’t get the glove down to make any play. Zobrist scored from second and the Royals tied the game. Moustakas and Perez followed with singles of their own to keep the line moving and Wade Davis shut things down with a six out save.

2015 World Series, Game 5
Mets 2, Royals 0
T9 – Double
wWPA – 20%

Mets 2, Royals 1
T9 – !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
wWPA – 17%

We come full circle with Homser sliding face-first across home plate on a Christian Colon chopper to third.

Naturally, it’s all set up by Hosmer doubling to score Cain with the Royals first run, chasing Matt Harvey from the game. Both plays were the WPA leaders.

Three innings later, the Royals had their first World Series title in 30 years.

This is just an amazing amount of clutch. And what’s funny (at least to me) is that Hosmer didn’t really perform well offensively in most of these series.

He tore through his first eight postseason games, but then didn’t do much the rest of the way. At least when you look at the statistics. We know differently, though. The evidence is above. In the biggest moments of the biggest game, no Royal consistently stepped forward like Eric Hosmer. It wasn’t always a hit, or a run, but there was always something he created to make things happen. Always. That, my friends, is the Clutch Gene.

The wild ride of 2014 and 2015 doesn’t happen if Hosmer isn’t on this team. Sure, it’s disappointing that the economics and structure of the game make it impossible for the Royals to hold on to their best players. And even if you think, like I do, that the Padres made a mistake in offering that kind of contract to Hosmer, (paying for an intangible like the Clutch Gene is a fool’s errand, there’s no guarantee San Diego will find itself in the position to utilize this magic) that in no way diminishes his accomplishments in Kansas City. Time and again he put this franchise and this city on his back. Time and again he answered.

What a ballplayer.

Well, all that went in the pooper with a tweet.

The #Padres got their man. Eric Hosmer is their new first baseman. https://t.co/ox6tAoeDVe

— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) February 18, 2018

Purely from a fan services point, of course this blows. Eric Hosmer was the face of the franchise during its most successful stretch of baseball in almost 30 years. If he never returns to Kansas City again, his legend is cemented. And that’s something that can’t be replaced, no matter who mans first base in 2018. To a point, numbers can be replicated; the status of local demigod, not so much.

This is the rare deal that probably works out for everybody else though. The Padres signal their intention to win between 79-88 games a year for the next five years, until they blow it sky-high for the umpteenth time (my first thought upon seeing the news: I don’t think Hosmer ever spends five years in San Diego. Gut feeling). Hosmer gets what he wanted—an eighth year, a little more money and even, perhaps, a second chance for a bite at the apple if he opts out after year five and is playing as well as he thinks he can at age-33*. Even Scott Boras saved some face, although that’s nobody’s idea of a plus outside the Boras household.

*–This is where I remind you that Hosmer’s best single-season BWARP is 3.7, which would rank no better than 16^th since the turn of the century… among first basemen in their age-33 through 35 seasons. A late career-surge isn’t unheard of…but I wouldn’t bet on it, either. I already trod this ground at great length way back in October. I don’t want to take credit/blame for Hosmer’s lack of suitors, but I know Dayton Moore is a fan, reader and close personal friend and takes my advice very seriously why are you laughing at me, don’t make fun of the relationship Dayton and I have.

And the Royals? Well, the Royals no longer have to hold to the half-in, half-out, “We may rebuild, but we may also be able to bring back some of these free-agents” mode. Tanking is a basketball term, not a baseball term, as the success of all but the Bryce Harperiest of talents are not fast-moving supernovas but tender flowers to be lovingly cultivated until they can be released on the baseball world at large. Kansas City does not have an impetus to be bad next season—they have six top-100 picks in this draft, four in the top-50, so adding talent and restocking the minor leagues shouldn’t be an issue. They Royals might be bad, but they won’t be embarrassing.

Lonely eyes now turn to Mike Moustakas, but given the Royals brazen all-in movement on Hosmer and the lukewarm discussions between all parties in the Moose-Royals stalemate, it’s a good bet that none of the big-time free-agents are still in the blue-on-blue next year. It’s youth movement time, and the names that have been bandied about both internally—Hunter Dozier, Cheslor Cuthbert, the beat goes on—and externally, chiefly Kansas City native Logan Morrison, aren’t going to make anyone forget Hosmer. They aren’t supposed to—if Cuthbert turns out to be a 25-homer, .280-average guy, that’s just found value there. If he’s bad, next man up. If he’s merely average, Nick Pratto is supposed to be ready in 2021.

If we get to that point with no potential resolution in sight, I imagine we’re discussing quite a few new-found realities, including a front office overhaul.

This season and likely the next are simply what they’re going to be for the Royals and their fans—an exercise in futility, unlikely to end on a positive note more often than not yet offering faint glimmers of hope to all fans involved. You know, like the late-90s—early-00’s Royals teams nobody is eager to run back. But what they have to offer is hope. There needs to be hope that the Royals have the right people in place to take advantage of the unique opportunities currently before Kansas City—to rebuild itself in an exciting fashion that offers the next wave of extremely talented young pups. One hopes it’s Dayton Moore; it would be quite a dispiriting end note for all involved if Moore, the architect of the greatest Kansas City baseball moments since Whitey Herzog, simply couldn’t get the franchise back to respectability.

At the same time, the last time Moore took a player in the first round who was a no-doubt success was Hosmer, in 2008. The litany of half-success, incompletes and outright failures since—Christian Colon, Bubba Starling, Kyle Zimmer, are you nauseous yet?—can’t be ignored. And as much as Moore’s rep was established with building a champion, it will be cemented by this next chapter.

Once upon a time, Hosmer was part of the next wave of tantalizing prospects. And unlike times past, when Royals fans were sold a bill of goods about the next generation of young ballplayers, Hosmer and Company actually walked the talk and talked the walk, delivering two pennants and a World Series title during their collective heyday. That can’t be overstated, regardless of how one feels about Hosmer as a player or his departure. He was good for the franchise, good for the city and now he’s doing what’s good for him.

Leave it to Rustin Dodd to encapsulate the Hosmer experience with nothing more than a tweet.

It’s hard to find a Royals career (non George Brett division) with three bigger hits than Eric Hosmer’s triple in the 2014 Wild Card Game, Cain-scoring RBI double in Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS, and, yes, Cain-scoring double in World Series-clinching Game 5 of the 2015 World Series. — Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) February 18, 2018

Royals fans will always have 2015. Hosmer was a significant part of that. The hunt for the next championship cornerstone starts now.

Frazier was universally thought to be worth a deal in the neighborhood of three years and $32 million (Jon Heyman’s mystery agent) to $42 million (Fangraphs community estimates). My handy, dandy contract estimator spreadsheet (with an aging curve and inflation built in) comes up with a number around $37 million for three years, so smack in the middle of the outlying estimates. Instead, Frazier is off a year of guaranteed money and taking about $15 to $20 million less from the best guesstimates to play baseball for the Mets.

You can’t blame Frazier for taking this offer, although it smacks of being lowballed. As of this writing, word is trickling out that Frazier preferred to play close to his home in New Jersey; perhaps there’s some kind of hometown discount built in that needs to be considered. Still, the money isn’t there for the players this winter. We’re three-plus months through the offseason and only one free agent has inked a deal that will pay him for more than three seasons.

Naturally, your thoughts turn to Mike Moustakas. Where does this leave the beloved Moose? Dayton Moore appeared on 810 WHB in Kansas City on Monday and had some interesting things to say about the former Royals third baseman.

“We have options at third… Moustakas had some expectations that were a little different, places he wanted to play. It was clear from the beginning we weren’t a high priority.”

For some reason when Moore alludes to Moustakas wanting to play someplace else, I can’t help but think of Anaheim. Remember, that was the consensus landing spot for Moustakas at the open of the offseason. It made sense. The Angels have traditionally deep pockets, a need at third base, and would be close to home for the third baseman. Instead, the Angels signed Zack Cozart (three years at $38 million) and announced they would be shifting him from short to third. Scratch the Angels off the shortlist.

That wasn’t the only option. Yet one by one, those options have disappeared. Whether through avoiding a luxury tax penalty or just finding less expensive talent, the market for the Moose has seemingly gone dry.

Is Dayton Moore hurt that the Royals weren’t the “priority?” Probably not. Moore has been around long enough to know that this is a business. Players have ideal teams just as teams have ideal players. And as Moore noted, the Royals own priority this winter has been Eric Hosmer. Even if the Royals are somewhat inexplicably targeting Hosmer, because of the contract he would command and the pool of resources available to Moore this offseason, it stands to reason any kind of talks with Moustakas would have to wait. They’re not going to be able to sign both and the Royals preference is crystal clear.

So what the hell is going on? Days before camps open to pitcher and catchers, seven or eight of the best free agents this winter are still looking for work. Scott Boras represents five of those players, including the former Royals dynamic duo. Boras has waited out the market before, with success, but he hasn’t done it with this many players so late in the process. And the case of his stable of top tier free agents won’t be helped by contracts like Frazier. Sometimes it’s difficult to remember that ballplayers are human, too. They like their stability just like everyone else. As report dates inch closer on the calendar, over 100 free agents are lacking the certainty they crave at this time of year. Bags are to be packed, plans are to be made and right now so many are in limbo.

Of course, it’s difficult to feel sorry for Hosmer and Boras. Hosmer, who has dueling seven year offers in his pocket, is reportedly looking for nine years. Nine! That may have played in 2015, but that’s not happening today. And such demands, if accurate, represent a gross miscalculation of the market. There’s posturing and setting yourself up for negotiations, and there’s ignorance. Guess where we are at this hour.

It used to be, you could make your best guess at an acceptable free agent contract and then tack on an extra year at around the same AAV. Boom. There’s your contract. This year, the trend seems to be take your best guess, cut the dollar amount in half and slice a year off the deal. That’s not a market correction as much as an opening salvo in the coming labor war. Since the ink is barely dry on the current CBA, some of this winter’s free agents will be on the market once again, before the next CBA is negotiated. They say the top players will get their money, and there can certainly be a big contact here or there, but as time rolls on, as desperation sinks in, there will be plenty of players who accept what we could term as below market contracts.

Where does this leave a team like the Royals? Sadly, with a looming rebuild and the desire for some fiscal austerity, they will – and probably should – remain on the sidelines. It will be frustrating to watch as clubs swoop for bargains in the coming days (and probably weeks) but the smart move for the Royals continues to be for them to move on from their free agents. Hosmer will still clear the $50 million threshold for the Royals to net a draft pick between the first and second rounds. It makes sense for the Royals to move on from him. While Moustakas felt like a lock to do the same back in November, in February, that’s seeming less likely. That means bringing back the third baseman would represent less of a setback to a rebuilding process. The contract wouldn’t be as long and the draft pick was going to be lower anyway.

This shouldn’t count as a ringing endorsement. It’s more like a, “My god, have you looked at the depth chart?” kind of statement. No signing Moustakas doesn’t bump the needle from also ran to contender. It won’t even nudge them to .500. But someone has to play and the Royals have the money to spend.

When looking at the rebuild through a prism of doing less harm, Moustakas represents that kind of bet.

One such pitcher who may fall into that realm is Kumar Rocker, a pitcher who had an outstanding summer season and is suddenly on the fringe of consideration for a Top 10-15 pick. The size of Rocker at 6’5″, 250 lbs is what stands out immediately when you see him on the mound, an imposing figure already at 18 years old. While teams will see plenty of 6’3″ to 6’5″ and taller pitchers this year, they won’t see one filled out like Rocker at his age. This is one reason that he could see his stock drop some as one of the last prep pitchers to be drafted at that size was Tyler Kolek, the second overall selection of the 2014 draft. Since joining the Marlins, Kolek struggled at Low-A before encountering Tommy John surgery in 2016 and has yet to get past Low-A after nearly missing all the ’17 season. Those types of results and the similarity in size might play a factor in Rocker’s placement in the draft.

The Stuff

In terms of stuff, Rocker comes at hitters with a below 3/4 arm angle. Despite his size, Rocker does a great job of keeping his balance over his legs, preventing much leaking while keeping his motion methodical. From there, he explodes forward with a big leg push while opening up his front side. That explosion shows off in his chest flexing forward while his throwing arm lags behind before quickly catching up. Altogether, the legs are used well and the flexibility of Rocker is impressive considering his size. With him opening up early and leaving behind the arm, his control wavers showing off as below average with the fastball. His power from the legs and speed of his arm allow him to already to get to 98 mph, and I expect it to get up to 100 in the very near future. The pitch has plenty of life and late armside run making it a monster of a pitch against amateur competition. He shows moments where he can cut down and work the edges, but oftentimes he will overthrow and with the mistimed mechanics misses his spots.

In addition to the fastball, Rucker has already shown a decent changeup with armside fade. Showing the use of similar body control and pacing that he exhibited with the fastball, the changeup currently comes into the plate in the upper-80s to 90 mph. It has the chance to become his best secondary offering if he can increase the difference in velocity. That fade is there already and he has confidence in the pitch earlier in his career than most pitchers his age, as shown in some of the sequences that he has used on the summer showcase circuit. That commitment should only grow if he gains that separation in velocity while maintaining his pacing and fade. In addition to the fastball and changeup, he throws a mid-80s slider that shows off a quality horizontal break, but not much vertical break. He isn’t afraid to work the pitch in on the hands to tie up right-handed hitters or throw out of the zonme but like the fastball, it lingers in the top of the zone which would become a pro hitters dream.

Currently, the Royals don’t have a pitching prospect in the system with Rocker’s type of upside, and despite the slight mechanical changes needed, he has the stuff to become a front of the rotation starter should the control and command improve. Even if it doesn’t, his combination of athleticism and fastball leaves a decent upside to become a closer. A decent comparison in my mind is Michael Pineda in terms of athleticism, size, and upside. Should he get past the 10th pick, the Royals should have the strength in their bonus allotment to get his agent to push Rocker their way.

Draft Strategy

Flexing draft muscle is a strategy the Royals have a chance to employ should Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain sign elsewhere. The Royals could have north of $12 million in bonus dollars at that point, likely putting them in the top five of all draft pools allotted to teams. The Royals, with this type of collateral, could push a top 10 talent to them in the first round with the 18th overall pick, push another player that they like to one of their competitive balance picks, or spread the wealth to their slots throughout the draft. The type of strength that this allotment would allow could make huge changes to the farm system, the type of changes that could push them in the upper half of all farm systems.

To see information on the Royals draft last year, purchase the Royals Prospect Guide we created at Payhip or Amazon.

Featured photo Kumar Rocker via Perfect Game.

• If I had to guess, I’d say that Kelvin Herrera is the next Royals reliever to be traded. After agreeing to a 2018 salary of a touch under $8 million, there’s certainty in his cost, even if it wasn’t that big of a deal before the agreement. If you’re looking for a potential trade partner, it’s basically any team in baseball that is trying to contend in 2018. If the Royals are willing to trade in the division, I could see a deal being struck with the Twins as they continue to work to rebuild their bullpen. Adding Herrera to Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed would give them a pretty solid back of the bullpen, though it isn’t without risk. One name that intrigues me is Akil Baddoo and not just because the name actually intrigues me. He’s a long way away, but he hit .323/.436/.527 in rookie ball as an 18-year old and has a chance to carry those OBP skills through to the big leagues. Some other options for Herrera include the Astros, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Dodgers. If you’re worried about trading another closer to the Cubs, at least they can’t acquire Jorge Soler for this one. Well, I guess they could, but that would be weird.
• A couple years ago, I jokingly randomly selected a Royals prospect in the BP KC breakroom that I indicated was my sleeper prospect in the whole system. It turned out to be Rudy Martin, and what’s funny is that he might actually be a sleeper prospect now. No, he isn’t likely to be anything more than a role player with a ceiling of a Jarrod Dyson type, but in this slow offseason, he’s a fun guy to root for. He was a 25th round pick in 2014 and stands at a robust 5’7” and 150 lbs. I hate stat scouting among prospects because the statistics in the minors don’t tell nearly enough of the story, but Martin has surprising power for his frame (which only means he might hit a home run if he ever makes the big leagues), but he plays a pretty solid outfield, has some good speed and if he can cut down on the strikeouts, might be able to be a big leaguer. In all likelihood, he’s Terrance Gore at best, but Martin is a prospect who I’m strangely excited to see if he can progress to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in the big leagues at some point.
• There has been a lot of speculation about why this free agent market has been so slow. I think all the possible reasons out there are valid, but I have another one that I think makes some sense to go along with them. This current free agent class is pretty devoid of star power. Aside from J.D. Martinez because of his power, there isn’t really a single player who can put a team over the top really left on the market. I guess you could argue that Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta as starters and Greg Holland in the bullpen could be that guy, but all have their warts. Teams are intelligent enough to know that spending nine figures on players who aren’t true difference makers really isn’t that smart. Think about the case of Mike Moustakas, as an example. I figured he’d get a contract in the neighborhood of five years and somewhere around $90 million or maybe even more. But why give him that contract when home runs are being hit by everyone and you can find a player worth two wins above replacement for far less money? I feel like so many teams are so much better at identifying young talent now that they can find a guy to provide that kind of value relatively easily. That’s not to say that the myriad of other reasons listed aren’t legitimate, but I really believe you can add that one to the list.
• And now your weekly Eric Hosmer update. I talked about this on 810 on Thursday, but with what I just said in mind, I sort of wonder if maybe Hosmer isn’t more valuable and better served on a team like the Royals or Padres. While he hit a robust .318/.385/.498 in 2017, he really hasn’t ever been that guy to put an offense to the next level. Rather, his role as a guy you can plug in the middle of the order and who can stand in front of his locker after every game might have more value to a team with young players coming up, theoretically in droves. Having Hosmer on the roster allows for young players to ease into life both on and off the field and not have to be the guy from day one. Maybe the Cardinals see him as the last piece of the puzzle, but he isn’t worth more than five years and, say, $85 million, but as someone who can protect young players and help to usher in the next era of winning baseball in a rebuilding city, maybe that’s actually worth more to a team. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think there is a benefit from having that presence on the roster and if that helps to develop a couple of the role players that help on the next playoff team, his value does go beyond his statistics. I’m not saying I’d give Hosmer $20 million per year for seven years, but I could definitely see the argument that him and players like him are, in fact, better served on that sort of team.

With Moustakas, it’s a little difficult to say what a team will be getting from him. On one hand, we know he’s a hitter willing to reinvent himself in order to get better results. He did that prior to the 2015 season and was a legitimately good hitter. Then he made adjustments to hit for more power; we saw how well that worked, too. The problem is that knee injury has made a player who wasn’t exactly brimming with athleticism, into a player who will need to be a DH sooner than later. After ranking as a positive player every year of his career outside of the tiny sample in 2016, Moustakas was worth -7.4 FRAA last season. The arm was still there, but his range was not. His UZR/150 was -3.6. It wasn’t just the metrics that disliked his defense. It was pretty clear he wasn’t what he once was.

So we don’t know if another year of recovery will help his defense, but Moose is likely seen as a limited player on the market. I thought there was a reason he would get significantly less than Hosmer, but I didn’t expect his limits to make his market what its become.

What are the options? Honestly, I’m not sure if any of them make that much sense. I guess if we’re trying to find a long-term deal, I only see five real options and I’m using the word “real” pretty loosely here.

If the Orioles follow through with moving Manny Machado to shortstop or if they follow through with simply moving Machado, they make a lot of sense. They’re in a perpetual state of refusing to rebuild and he would probably hit an awful lot of homers in Camden Yards. I think the max on a deal here is maybe four years with three more likely, but this is the one that probably makes the most sense to me. Even so, they’re earmarking their money for pitching, so I don’t think they’ll end up spending it on another slugger to add to their stable.

The Cardinals have been rumored to be after more offense even after acquiring Marcell Ozuna earlier in the offseason. They’ve been loosely connected with Hosmer with the idea of moving Matt Carpenter to second or third base. That means they’d likely be willing to replace Jedd Gyorko as a starter (and probably make him a super utility guy), but I don’t think that makes sense, not to make room for Moose anyway. Gyorko is a much better defender and has enough power that he can at least produce a nice chunk of what Moustakas could. It makes sense, but I think they’re too smart to do it.

The Phillies seem to be investing in some veterans with so little on the books moving forward, and if they’re completely done waiting on Maikel Franco, they could be a fit. Like the Orioles, Moose in that park could be fun for some big-time home run totals, and he’s one of those guys you would expect their crazy fan base to like, so I guess that has some legs if a few things work out to get him there, but I just don’t see it as all that likely.

The Mets make the most sense for him, but they went and spent $39 million over three years on Jay Bruce. They’ve been rumored to be a little tight on money and adding another left-handed bat may not be that appealing to them anymore. I think they made a mistake choosing Bruce over Moustakas given their outfield options already, but I guess that’s why they’re the Mets, right?

I’m going to save the other team that makes sense on a long-term deal for a minute. Yes, that’s right. Let the anticipation build.

Moose could sign a one-year deal, too. It would put him on the market with the crazy free agent class next year, including against Machado and Josh Donaldson, but a guy’s gotta eat. The Yankees make the most sense to me if he’s going to do that. They could use a left-handed bat to slot in with their right-handed monsters, and Moose could approach 50 home runs in that park. The Braves could also try to get him for one year as they wait for Austin Riley to get to the big leagues. That’s another park that would be very good for him to call home. And I could even see him staying in the AL Central if the Indians see an opening to get a third baseman for a year and shift Jose Ramirez to second where he finished 2017. There’s a small part of me that wonders if the White Sox could also be in play, but that’d be an odd scenario.

And that leaves the Royals. I said a little while ago in Friday Notes that a one-year deal doesn’t make much sense for him in Kansas City because you don’t want to sign that deal in a park that suppresses homers, but he has shown he can hit them, even with calling Kauffman Stadium home. But I do wonder if the market has come back to the point that the Royals are willing to give him something like three years and $42 million. If he’s not going to get a $50 million deal on the open market, I don’t actually have a problem with them bringing back the fan favorite. They’d only lose a pick right before the third round. It’s not that the pick wouldn’t have value, but the value isn’t really that much.

This is also a pretty unrealistic scenario, but on a three-year deal at a reasonable rate, I would have to think he could be traded. I hate the idea of advocating a signing just for the purpose of trading someone because it never seems to work out, but they’d have that in their back pocket. The reason I don’t think it’s that realistic is that I have a tough time seeing Dayton Moore pull the trigger on that sort of deal, especially as the next wave gets close. That is unless they have a third baseman on the way, which is certainly possible. Right now, they have options at third base, but Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert shouldn’t stop a team from signing someone better. I like them both, but they don’t get in the way of a solid player.

Having said all this, I’m sure Moose will sign tomorrow with the Padres or something ridiculous because I didn’t mention them, but it’s become quite clear that his market is a pretty big mystery, and I wonder if he ends up being the guy the Royals keep in the fold just because the market lined up so perfectly (or imperfectly) to make it happen.

The Royals brass has talked highly of their young players in the system and was reluctant to part with any besides Esteury Ruiz, despite a lacking farm from which to trade and a major league team that was lingering in the wildcard race. With a current projected payroll around $112 million, a $20 million Hosmer deal would likely mean they need to trim back $15-20m to get near the $110m budget they mentioned earlier this offseason. Unfortunately, trading Duffy’s $14m contract seems like the most logical way to trim the needed payroll to get the Royals near that $110m mark.

If they were to make a trade of Duffy then one team that stands out as a very likely match is the Milwaukee Brewers. Beyond the fact that the Royals have traded a young pitcher to the Brewers and a different GM in their attempt to compete for the playoffs in the past, there are players the Royals have had interest in in the past. On the heels of a bounce-back ’17 campaign, Monte Harrison exploded in the Arizona Fall League this past fall, hitting five home runs despite playing just 13 games there. A local kid from Lee’s Summit West High School, Harrison as a former football player with quick twitch skills, speed to cover center and power he fits a phylum that the Royals scouts have long coveted.

Besides Harrison, the Royals have shown interest previously in a pair of pitchers in the Brewers system. Right-handed starter Phil Bickford was once on the draft radar of the Royals, and despite a marijuana suspension and an injury he still shows three average or better pitches with a chance to start or move quickly into a major league bullpen.

In addition to Bickford, the Brewers have left-handed pitcher Kodi Medeiros in their system, a pitcher that it was said the Royals were extremely interested in prior to Milwaukee selecting him in the 2014 draft. The sidearm-throwing Medeiros is a fringe starter despite a pair of plus pitches in his fastball and slider to go along with an average changeup. Much like Bickford, the lefty possesses upside as a starter or could move quickly as a matchup lefty in the bullpen.

From top to bottom the Brewers offer a lot of different players that the Royals could tag in a trade, but I would be surprised if any deal doesn’t show them interested in Monte Harrison, who MLB Pipeline pegged as a likely Top 100 prospect. These other two names could be flipped around with any number of other Brewers prospects but it should be known that they’ve intrigued the Royals scouting staff in the past and despite some hiccups in their game, they still exhibit enough upside to intrigue as secondary pieces of a Duffy trade.

Other Notes
Baseball America released their Top 10 last week and I was intrigued to see Josh Staumont still in the Top 5 of the system. I shouldn’t say that surprises me as much as seeing them listing him in the Royals 2021 future rotation. I write this because that same publication listed Yadier Alvarez, the Dodgers 21-year-old hard throwing righthander as a likely future bullpen pitcher. Having seen the two pitchers face off at Double-A last summer, I couldn’t have seen two more similar pitchers in the pair of fireballers who could reach 100 mph with their fastball while also missing the strikezone with ridiculous regularity.

On that day both pitchers worked just four innings on 81 pitches, with Alvarez throwing a touch harder while walking one more hitter. Perhaps Baseball America feels the Dodgers and their depth in the rotation will allow Alvarez to go to the bullpen, but I still found it intriguing one writer would view it one way while the other at the same publication would view it another. Both to me are destined to the pen. That’s the reason I pushed Staumont lower in my rankings, and if I would be more patient with one over the other it would likely be Alvarez who is two years younger currently.

The ZiPS projections came out the other day at Fangraphs, and it likely isn’t surprising to see how abysmal the Royals opening day roster could look via the projections. After all, the projection systems have never liked this team and I doubt this front office will ever put together a squad that they would like. Still, I found one interesting note that I thought would be intriguing to watch. Listed with the second most projected innings as a starter was Jake Junis with 154.3 innings. Combine that number with his listed 7.64 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 rates and one would think Junis would be ready for a breakout projection. Then Szymborski drops the hammer with a 1.75 HR/9 projection to temper the righty’s expectations. Personally, I view the other numbers are far more likely than that home run number and the pitcher we saw in the second half is closer to the guy we will see this season. It should be fun to monitor whether the Royals have a starter who is close to a mid-rotation level talent or as ZiPS views him as a fringe guy.

If you would like to see reports on Staumont and others please purchase the 2018 Royals Prospect Guide that myself and a pair of other writers put together. You can pick it up at my Payhip link or for your Kindle through Amazon. Thanks again for reading and follow me @ClintScoles.

• The deal to send Scott Alexander to the Dodgers and Joakim Soria to the White Sox for Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia was unexpected and interesting. Clint did a fantastic job writing up the deal yesterday, but I wanted to throw my two cents in. I like Oaks because I think cheap starters who can give innings are really important, especially for rebuilding teams. His upside isn’t especially great, but a quality number four starter is worth plenty. Just think if the Royals didn’t need to hit the free agent market for one in Jason Hammel. I like that he gets ground balls and I think he’ll be a nice fit with the Royals. Speaking of Hammel, if I had to guess, I’d say he’s dealt within the next few days. One year of Hammel can absolutely be traded. And that’ll clear a little more salary, which would make room for that Hosmer deal we’ve been talking about this week. I’ll get to that in a second. I’ve believed pretty strongly that the Royals needed to add rotation depth, and while this definitely does that, I don’t think they should be done. Though I will say that Oaks, Scott Barlow, Brad Keller and incumbents Eric Skoglund, Foster Griffin and others do give the Royals a lot of options at the very least.
• There was a pretty mixed reaction from Royals fans when thinking about the idea that the Royals had offered that kind of money to Hosmer, and I run the risk of being a fence sitter here, but I see both sides. On one hand, why spend that kind of money for those kind of years on a player who isn’t likely to put the team over the top in any of the next few seasons? On the other hand, signing a player who is coming off the best year of his career when he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime years is something every team wants to do. My belief is that it’s best to let him go elsewhere and take the draft compensation to add the pick and about $2 million to the draft pool. But in trying to see it from the Royals perspective, I have to say that I at least understand their side. In Hosmer, they have a face of the franchise and someone who they’ve deemed a great leader. With young players likely to be coming to the big leagues over the next few seasons, it helps to have that. It also gives them a veteran to slot in the middle of the order to take pressure off these young players as they arrive so they don’t have to be “the guy” right away.
• There is another longer-term factors. You may scoff now, but if he plays long enough, there will be a Hall of Fame case for him. He currently has 1,132 hits, 127 home runs and 206 doubles. If he can get to 3,000, 300 and 500, I think it’d be hard to keep him out, no matter what you think of counting stats. And if he plays through his age-38 season, that’s 11 more years. Basically if you see three more seasons like his 2017, he’s up to 1,700 hits, 300 doubles and 200 homers, giving him eight seasons to average 162 hits, 25 doubles and 13 homers. There are a lot of factors that will stop him from getting there. It’s just hard to last that long for anyone, especially a player with a long swing like Hosmer has. And it also counts on him continuing what he did in 2017 for multiple seasons in a row when he’s yet to put together even back-to-back above average seasons to this point. So yeah, I’m not saying it’s the likeliest path, but the numbers are there that if he can consistently put it together year to year, he’s on a path to at least being a big argument on a ballot in like 2034. There’s value in having another player in the franchise who at least could be a Hall of Famer. That was kind of rambling, but there’s an argument to keep him for sure.
• The Royals payroll is an interesting talking point because they keep mentioning that they have a budget of around $115 million or so for the 2018 season. They’re already up against that, as we all know, but other than having to be creative this season and in 2019, things actually do open up a bit moving forward as they have just about $46 million committed in 2020 and $30 million committed in 2021 before going down to $0 in commitments in 2022 as of right now. There are arbitration eligible players who will factor in and all that, but we can only go by what we know right now. The point is that if they can shed a little salary this season and maybe some for next season, they could fit in a big contract moving forward. I would guess the organizational belief is that the roster will feature enough 0-3 players that the payroll can be top heavy with guys like Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and a big contract like Hosmer would command. That may be pie in the sky thinking, but that’s the way it’ll have to work if it’s going to work. So fast forward to 2020, if the Royals have $46 million for Duffy, Perez, Jorge Soler and Ian Kennedy and were to add, say, $23 million for Hosmer, they’d have $69 million for five players. Add in some combination of Khalil Lee, Michael Gigliotti, Donnie Dewees, Raul Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Jake Junis Josh Staumont, Griffin, Chase Vallot and any other young guys in the bullpen, and they could be looking at about $8 million for 12 or so guys with eight spots left to fill. If they’re willing to run a $130 million payroll (and that might be light if there’s a new TV deal), they’d have $50 million or so for those eight players. Sure it would take some shrewd signings/trades, but that’s doable. Is it likely? I don’t think so, but that’s not what the question is here.

We took last week off for Christmas and … not much has changed. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas are still free agents, as are many other notable major leaguers. What gives?

We discussed the factors in play and speculated about how this weird market might work out once things (if things) start moving.

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