Early on, it looked like they made a terrible mistake. Maybe moving on from Eiland wasn’t necessarily wrong, but Eldred didn’t appear to be a positive influence on the staff as they appeared unprepared for opposing offenses at times and unwilling to adjust. I know that’s an odd thing to say about a guy who never threw a pitch for the team, but I sort of felt like that was on him and I questioned his ability to do his job. Obviously the lack of talent in the bullpen was a problem, but even so, established pitchers were struggling as well, which is a bit concerning.

It was pretty much a struggle through July. The offense got more fun when Ryan O’Hearn came up and Adalberto Mondesi really got going, but it’s pretty easy to see why the team got better after July 31st. The pitching improved a great deal. After starting 33-73 with a 5.30 ERA, they went 25-31 with a 4.26 ERA the rest of the way. August wasn’t stellar, but the starters had an ERA of 4.90 while the bullpen’s was down to 4.52, their second lowest mark of the season to that point. In September, the starters really kicked it up with a 3.49 ERA and the bullpen posted a 4.39 mark, their new second best. Take a look at the starter and reliever ERAs by month here:

I guess the question is whether or not that was just noise or if there’s something to it. I think simply not having Blaine Boyer and Justin Grimm helped and limiting the innings of Jason Hammel helped quite a bit too. And overall, the numbers weren’t really that much better. There was a spike in strikeout percentage in August, but that dropped significantly in September as well as the swinging strike rate, so maybe the September numbers are a bit of a mirage. I’ll get back to that in a second on an individual basis, but here are their numbers month-by-month.

And finally, before I get into the individuals, I found it very interesting that the team ground ball percentage as a staff in the first half was 41.7 percent, which ranked fifth lowest in baseball. The fly ball percentage of 37 percent was fifth highest. In the second half, the ground ball percentage was 45.3 percent (third highest) and the fly ball percentage was 33.1 percent (fourth lowest). Here’s a look at the ground ball and fly ball numbers by month followed by the home run per nine numbers:

Now let’s talk individuals because it’s one thing to look at team numbers, but they include guys like Boyer, Grimm and Hammel and a bunch of pitchers who don’t really matter to both the future of the team and even a cursory evaluation of Eldred in his new role. The young guys are who Eldred was brought in to work with, so I actually want to see how they did throughout the season. Let’s start with the success stories and move into the…others.

Brad Keller

It’s hard to fully evaluate Keller’s season on a month-by-month basis because the first two months were mostly spent in the bullpen and then he had to evolve a bit as a pitcher, which he absolutely did. This is an Eldred success story if you pin that on a coach. He saw his strikeout percentage jump up in the last two months and his swinging strike percentage go way up in his final month with his walk rate taking a tumble. It all kind of came together for him in September as you can see his ground ball rate jumped back up to where it was early in the year as well. All in all, this is a fun one to look at.

Heath Fillmyer

Fillmyer is a massive success story even if he never becomes a solid big league pitcher. Maybe it’s just my perception because I believed he was a big nothing burger, but he just kept getting better as the season went on. When he first came up, he was a ground ball machine, as you can see below, but after settling into a starting role, he wasn’t quiet that. Still, in September, like Keller, he put together is best effort with season highs in strikeout percentage, swinging strike percentage, walk percentage (well, low there, but that’s good) and a solid enough ground ball rate. His slider is a legitimately quality big league pitch, limiting opponents to a .242 average and .318 SLG with a 35.3 percent whiff rate. The surprise is that his changeup and curve both were solid as well. He may need to pitch backward a bit, but I think there might actually be a future on a big league club for him.

Jakob Junis

It was a truly odd year for Junis, who started off looking like he was going to way outperform projections, then his season took a dark turn and then he ended up about where everyone thought he would. The key for him is keeping the ball out of the air a little better. Through June, he’d allowed 22 homers in 96.1 innings, which is decidedly not good. And he had a fly ball rate of 43.8 percent. From July through the end of the year, he allowed 10 home runs in 80.2 innings. That’s decidedly much better. And his fly ball rate then was down to 29.2 percent. His home run per fly ball wasn’t drastically different. It was good to see him continuing to keep the ball in the park even while throwing a ton of strikes. Just look at those walk rates.

Kevin McCarthy

The reason I think McCarthy was a success for the coaching staff isn’t so much the performance on the surface because he was relatively steady all year. What gets me excited about McCarthy is that he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher (64.3 percent on the year), but he started getting swings and misses in August and September. Look at those rising swinging strikes rate (11.6 percent and 12.2 percent respectively after not topping 9.6 percent in any month). If he can do that while maintaining a fantastic walk rate and his ground ball rate, he might be more than a middle reliever moving forward. It’s at least worth watching.

Danny Duffy

Duffy isn’t young, but he is a part of the future, and his season cannot be classified as anything but disappointing. Injuries played a big role here, so I don’t want to put this on Eldred, but it was a rough go. We know the baseball card numbers, but in August, his swinging strike percentage was down to just 7 percent, which is well below his average. I’m guessing this was injury, but look at this chart. He was just all over the place. I’m not sure it tells us anything, but he had a weird year. You can probably ignore September given that it’s just two-thirds of an inning and seven batters worth of work.

Brandon Maurer

Please help me. There’s something about Maurer that makes me wonder if he can be something next year. After some adjustments, his strikeout percentage jumped from 8.8 percent in July to 25 percent in August and 25.8 percent in September. He still walks too many and he’s terrible, but this is exactly the reason why he’ll get chances until he’s 112. Anyway, I just wanted to throw him in because I’m mean.

Burch Smith

He’s not good. He’s not a big leaguer. He didn’t get better. He’s just not good. But hey, he walked fewer batters in July and August. So there’s that.

I thought about throwing in Tim Hill and Jorge Lopez, but they weren’t especially interesting, though it is worth noting that Hill saw his walk rate cut in half from the first half to the second and his strikeout rate remain mostly the same. He doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses, but his ground ball rate is so good that you’re okay with that as a LOOGY. The big win for him was cutting that walk rate because he was putting way too many guys on early. Lopez is tough to gauge because the sample is tiny, but also because he was in a different role with the Royals than he had been in the big leagues before.

One other player who was of interest was Eric Skoglund. I was pretty adamant he wasn’t a big leaguer, and I might have been wrong about that. He came back in September and the back of the card numbers were very good with a 1.33 ERA and just 11 hits allowed in 20.1 innings, but the underlying numbers were not great. The sample was obviously very small, but he’s worth watching to see if that was a mirage or the improvement was for real.

In all, I really liked the trend of a fair amount of young pitchers. I’m not sure this is the best way to evaluate Eldred as a coach, but is there really a great way to evaluate coaches? It’s kind of on the players. I’d say the improvements throughout the year at least reflect well on him and seeing guys like Junis, McCarthy, Keller, Fillmyer and some others improve in various ways as the season progressed makes me hopeful for him to be able to continue to make an impact as the pitching staff theoretically skews younger over the next few seasons. I’m not sold on him, but I do feel much better about him than I did early in the season

Not a bad little idea Ned had. That’s actually the kind of Nedism that probably earned him at least one more year at the helm, as his extension was announced prior to game 162, Sunday afternoon. Rather than another start to put an exclamation point on an exemplary season for Brad Keller, who had nothing left to prove, Yost instead put Skoglund on the mound against the division champs and said, “Let’s see it.”

Even though it didn’t result in a win—and I can’t recount how many times I’ve typed something to that effect this year—it gave Skoglund a nice end to the campaign and provided another building block, however slight, as the franchise seeks to frame up the future.

‘Twas an auspicious beginning for the Royals. Skoglund booted a Francisco Lindor bouncer to open the game and of course, Lindor made him pay with a steal of second, a steal of third and of course, coming across to score when Alcides Escobar failed to haul in Meibrys Viloria’s throw.

Good old Esky, one more rancid play in a season full of them. There will always be 2015.

Lindor led off the third with a homer in the third but the Royals broke through in the fifth. Brian Goodwin led off with a single, stole second and moved to third on Escobar’s groundout. Brett Phillips walked and then Viloria singled to score Goodwin.

That’s more or less the things that happened, baseball-wise, that you probably care about—Ryan O’Hearn made a nice diving stop in the second inning—but two moments stood out. In the eighth, Whit Merrifield singled, swiped second and moved to third on a throwing catcher by Eric Haase. He locked up the MLB lead in hits (192) and steals (45)—the seventh player in MLB history to do that—and will enter next season with a 20-game hit streak intact.

In the ninth, with two outs and a runner on first, Escobar stepped to the plate. Hero, goat, All-Star, sub-replacement player—Esky has worn many hats over his Kansas City career. He received a well-deserved ovation and as I was thinking, “Boy, a walk-off homer would be the perfect cap to his career,” he hit a little dribbler to the mound and like that, his tenure—and the 2018 season for the Kansas City Royals—came to a close.

Your Tweet of Despair

About Esky’s last game as a Royal… anybody else able to confirm this? Because it’s too terrifying to contemplate.

Esky isn’t done. Dayton basically just said on #Royals radio in so many words there is an excellent chance Esky will be back in utility role.

— Chris (@bballkansas) September 30, 2018

The Bright Spot: Merrifield finished the season as the big-league leader in hits and stolen bases. Please stop the “Trade Whit!” narrative; he’s worth more to the Royals than to anyone else. Remember when he wasn’t an All-Star? That was stupid.

The Nadir: No Royals baseball for six months. While the losing got old after a while*, baseball is fun. Baseball is fun and good to watch and little moments like Whit Merrifield getting a standing O as much for surviving as anything else make the day-in, day-out drudgeries worth it.

*- It got old after about six games.

The Next Step: 2019. What will it hold? Promise, if September was any indication. Maybe they’ll lose 100 games again, but they won’t do it in the same soul-crushing fashion they seemed content to do in April, May and June. Until then, thanks for reading me roughly half the time. Clint, David and the other dudes will be around all offseason, and I’ll hop in from time to time to give my opinion about whatever happens. Adieu.

And they’ve been this underwhelming even while becoming the first team ever to have four pitchers reach the 200 strikeout mark. Their top four starters are top notch, but a struggling bullpen has led to some issues. The potential is there for true greatness with Brad Hand, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, but it just hasn’t been there due to both injuries and poor performance. It’s worth noting that these four games will be tune-up games for the Indians, so their starters aren’t likely to go deep into games, though I guess you never know.

Indians Vitals

Royals vs. Indians

Offense

Pitching

Indians Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 7:15 pm

This was pretty much inevitable for Tomlin at some point and the fact that it has held off this long says a lot about him. He doesn’t have good stuff and spends so much time in the strike zone, so eventually he was going to bitten by the long ball more than he had before and this season he’s allowed 24 homers in just 65.2 innings, a total that might make Chris Young blush (sorry, Chris). He still has phenomenal control, but he’s just not missing nearly enough bats and he’s getting hit awfully hard with a barrel rate of 11 percent, nearly double the MLB average. It’s bad. He’s been in and out of the rotation in September, so he’s only a few days removed from throwing 76 pitches in a game, which means if they decide to go awhile with him, he can probably do it. But that said, do you really want him to? He’s allowed a .365/.412/.738 line to lefties while Ryan O’Hearn has absolutely mauled righties. If you’re picking up what I’m putting down and you play daily fantasy, you’re welcome. Of course if you didn’t already know that, you probably shouldn’t be wasting your money.

Sparkman will get his third career start in place of Jorge Lopez who was shut down after his rib injury and bad start his last time out. I do believe Sparkman can be a worthwhile reliever and am doubtful of him long-term in the rotation, though, so I guess it’s similar to a Lopez start. He relieved Lopez in his last outing, throwing 55 pitches over four innings and generally being okay, though the lack of swings and misses has me concerned about his future in any role. Still, it’s nice to see the mid-90s fastball and you’d think a secondary pitch could emerge that we just haven’t seen yet from him in the big leagues. This will be his first time going against Cleveland, so it’ll be a nice test for him even if he does only get bits and pieces of the regular lineup.

Friday – 7:15 pm

I feel like a lot of people are surprised at the season Clevinger is having, but if you watched him last year, you shouldn’t be. The stuff plays, and now that he’s got his walk rate under control, it plays even better. He’s deceptive too, which makes him incredibly difficult to hit. So while it’s surprising that he’s gotten to this point, I don’t think it is based on last season. He’s also been hit harder by lefties than righties, though not to the extent of Tomlin. That said, 13 of the 21 homers he’s allowed have been to lefties and 33 of the 58 extra base hits. He’s had some first inning struggles, allowing six home runs and 17 runs in his 31 starts, and the Royals know all about that having scored three in the first against him a few weeks ago at home before getting shut down by him the rest of the way. Including that start, he’s faced the Royals four times this year and gone 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA with just two home runs allowed (to Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez). So my guess here is that the Royals will be happy if they do treat this as a shorter tune-up.

If we’re being honest, I’d have never guessed that Kennedy has thrown more than 100 innings this season. I actually forgot he existed while he was on the disabled list. All that said, it’s hard to argue with the results in his three starts since he’s been back. He’s gone 19 innings, allowed 17 hits, six runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and five walks and posted a 1.89 ERA. He’s generally actually been really good. Of course, he’s been facing teams with nothing to play for but the offseason, but still, it’s better to be good in your only sample than bad. He’s faced Cleveland once this year and was outstanding, going six shutout innings and striking out eight to pick up his first win of the season. It was roughly four degrees that day, so that helped, but again, good results are better than bad.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

Kluber probably isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he definitely belongs in the conversation as he currently leads the American League in innings pitched and has some excellent results. For him, a mid-season funk of sorts probably cost him the award. He went 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts from June 16^th to September 18^th, which bumped his ERA from 2.10 to 2.93. Now, he was outstanding in his last start against the White Sox, going seven shutout inning with 11 strikeouts, but the overall numbers are probably a cut below the other candidates. The question that I think is fair to ask with Kluber is just how worn down he is. Since the start of 2014, he’s thrown 1,127 innings and faced 4,463 batters. That’s a lot. This year against the Royals, he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts, but he’s been hit hard at Kauffman Stadium where he’s posted a 6.35 ERA and allowed eight runs on 16 hits in 11.1 innings. This game is, in fact, at Kauffman Stadium.

Junis had his first meh start of the year against the Tigers last time out, and it might be part of marring a really strong finish for him after allowing four runs on eight hits in three innings the time out before that one. But no homers allowed is a good thing, given the season he’s had, so he gets one last chance to go into the offseason on a high note. I’ll run the numbers as I do every start for him, but since coming off the DL, he’s gone 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 starts spanning 69.1 innings with eight home runs allowed. He’s struck out 66 and walked just 14. That’ll play. He’s been hit hard by Cleveland a couple times this year, but his last time out against them earlier this month, he allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings. More of that would be a nice way to finish his year.

Sunday – 2:15 pm

The 2018 season wraps up with the Royals seeing Carlos Carrasco somehow for the first time since April 6^th when he went six innings and gave up two runs on five hits. Now, think back to that time. Giving up two runs against the Royals then was basically like giving up five or six to a real team, so maybe that wasn’t such a great start. Of course, he is a legitimately very good pitcher and has found his way to another fully healthy, very good season. He strikes out a ton of hitters, doesn’t give up a crazy amount of hits and doesn’t walk guys. No, he isn’t an ace, but he’s a heck of a number two. If you’re looking for a weakness, he’s actually been at his worst when he’s first starting a game, though that’s if you can call that his “worst” as he’s given up a .253/.287/.406 line. Still, though, he’s allowed 10 of the 21 homers he’s allowed all season in just 35 percent of the plate appearances. He’s 10-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 23 games against the Royals in his career. Whit Merrifield has really enjoyed hitting against him in 16 plate appearances, putting up a .500/.533/1.000 line. That’ll play.

And the season wraps up with Eric Skoglund throwing the first pitch, so that’s…something. Though I should be fair to say that he’s been really good since he came off the DL and I was actually disappointed that his last start got cut short because of the rain delay in Cincy. In four games, he’s gone 15.1 innings and given up just eight hits and two runs to lower his ERA by 1.3 runs. He’ll be making his third career start against the Indians. The first two were both last year and didn’t go so well. He lasted 3.1 innings combined and allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with three strikeouts and four walks. So yeah. Happy last day of the season!

This is the toughest series of the year to predict because who knows how the Indians are going to play it? Do they want to stay completely fresh and everyone will play or do they want to take the opportunity to rest guys and play their bench a little bit before the postseason? My guess is we don’t see guys for too long unless they need the reps like maybe Josh Donaldson. I’m going to go out on a true limb here and say the Royals take three of four and give us some warm and fuzzy feelings to take into the offseason.

The starting pitching, though, is rough. They have a lot of young arms to go along with Matt Harvey and 1-14 Homer Bailey, but they’ve all been somewhere between bad and average, so there’s a ways to go. But at least the bullpen has some promise with Raisel Iglesias at the back end.

Reds Vitals

Royals vs. Reds

Offense

Pitching

Reds Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday – 5:40 pm

The Royals get to face one of the 2015 World Series heroes in this one, though they did face him once after the World Series, so it’s not Matt Harvey’s first time seeing the Royals blue since that fateful night. Still, it’ll be fun to relive some of that Game Five magic in this one where the Royals presumably broke Harvey to the point that he was dealt to the Reds after being DFAed. He hasn’t been bad in Cincy, though, with a 4.46 ERA and a solid strikeout to walk ratio. He’s still too hittable and not nearly what he was through 2015, but he’s been serviceable. He’s had a bit of an interesting September for the Reds, posting a 4.63 ERA that’s pretty well in line with his season number, but he’s gotten a ton of whiffs while also giving up his share of homers. It’s all just sort of incongruent, but I guess that’s the story of his career lately. He just doesn’t have the same putaway stuff he used to, and when hitters go up in the count on him, they have a chance to do serious damage. He’s allowed a .462 average and .923 SLG on 1-0 counts and a .556 average and 1.500 SLG on 2-0 counts. Lefties have raked him for power with a .222 ISO, so in that ballpark, I’d expect at least four Ryan O’Hearn homers.

Skoglund has now made two starts since coming off the DL (and one relief appearance) and the results have been quite good with a total of 13 innings pitched, seven hits allowed and just two runs with only three walks. Of course, he’s also only struck out six, which isn’t good at all. I still have plenty of doubts about Skoglund long term, so it’ll be good to get to evaluate two more starts of his since the Royals have shut down Brad Keller to get him an extra one on the final day of the season. One of the most shocking Skoglund stats that I thought I’d share is that opponents are actually at their best against him when they’re behind in the count with a .318 average and .541 SLG. That can’t happen.

Wednesday – 5:40 pm

Cody Reed also has ties to the 2015 World Series squad as he was dealt in the deal for Johnny Cueto, and he’ll make his seventh start of the season against the Royals in this one. Aside from an April start, Reed had pitched out of the bullpen exclusively in the big leagues until August 30, and he’s been outstanding in his last two, going 11 innings with no runs allowed on seven hit and with 16 strikeouts against just two walks. I really liked Reed as a Royals prospect and it seems he might be starting to show off some of that potential. He works heavily with a slider, throwing it nearly 41 percent of the time since his return to the rotation, and it’s been outstanding, holding opponents to a .186 average and .279 SLG and has been responsible for 21 of his 25 strikeouts. Watch out, righties. He hasn’t faced many lefties, but he’s been basically 50/50 fastball and slider to them and they’ve crushed his fastball. Given the roster, some lefties will have to play, so they better be hunting fastballs. He does tire out quickly with his OPS allowed going from .599 in the first plate appearance to .761 in the second to a whopping 1.194 in the third. If the Royals can wait him out, they can hit him.

I continue to have no idea what to make of Fillmyer. I think his slider is big league good, but he just gets roughed up sometimes and in situations that make me wonder how he ever has good starts. But then he goes out and has some good starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his four September starts and was solid against Pittsburgh last time out. He’s actually started getting some more swings and misses, with his swinging strike rate jumping from just under six percent to just over nine percent in the second half. It’s still not quite enough, but I could see him faring very well in a swingman role on a better team. The Reds, as a team, are not exactly world class against sliders, so if he has it working, it could be another good start for him. Of course, his 7.22 road ERA makes me wonder.

Neither team is good, and I expect this series to be about whichever team is more into it. I’ll go ahead and say the Royals split it with the Reds, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Skoglund and Fillmyer both get hit around too much for the Royals offense to keep up.

Pirates Vitals

Royals vs. Pirates

Offense

Pitching

Pirates Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 6:05 pm

Musgrove was a nice acquisition from the Houston Astros, even if it seems like they should have gotten more for Gerrit Cole. He’s a guy who throws strikes and is generally an acceptable member of a big league rotation. This year, he’s really fit the bill as an average starter, which has legitimate value. He isn’t just a control type guy either. He has decent stuff, averaging 94 on his fastball along with a changeup and a slider that have been generally really good this season. Lefties have hit him much better with a .763 OPS and a .167 ISO compared to .615 and .113 respectively against righties. He’s not one to get terribly deep into games, pitching into the seventh in only about half his appearances and past there just one. Still, he’s a solid pitcher and a guy I could see the Royals struggling against.

Keller is starting to get some run as a Rookie of the Year candidate and while I think he’s the fourth best rookie at best this season, it’s nice to see him get the publicity. After another fantastic outing his last time out, he’s posted a 6-2 record with a 2.95 ERA since the break in 10 starts. He’s averaging better than six innings per start, striking out a reasonable number of batters and has even been getting more swings and misses lately, which is the biggest thing plaguing him in his quest to be a starter. I think there’s still reason to be skeptical, but he’s answered the bell all season long, and that’s great to see.

Tuesday – 6:05 pm

Taillon is a great story, having come back from cancer last season and looking like he’s put it together this year to become a very good big league starting pitcher. He gets strikeouts, has good control, limits hits well enough and eats some innings. He’s not an ace, but he’s certainly working his way into becoming a number two. He lives on 96 MPH pitches, throwing his four-seamer about 35 percent of the time and his sinker about 23 percent. His curve and slider are both very good, but his curve is the real strikeout pitch, making up 56 of his 156 strikeouts this season. Like Musgrove, he has a decent left-right split, so the Royals big lefty bats might be able to do some damage against him. The one thing that might make him seem like a candidate for some regression (in the future) is that he’s allowed a .264/.312/.429 line with nobody on, but .189/.269/.266 with runners in scoring position. It’s not that pitchers can’t be better in different situations, but that’s a pretty big gap.

Skoglund gets to make his second start since his long DL stint, and he was actually pretty good in his first one, giving up two runs over five innings. He was limited to just 67 pitches, so I doubt he’ll throw a ton more than that, but the Pirates are a touch worse in the contact department against lefties than righties, so if his curve his working for him, he might be able to turn in a good game. As you all undoubtedly know by this point, I’m a big proponent of swing and miss rates being a good indicator for the future and Skoglund just doesn’t get them. If he’s going to succeed, he’s going to need to, and I just don’t see it for him, but I’m rooting for it to happen.

Wednesday – 6:05 pm

I can’t imagine there’s a bigger “what if” pitcher in all of baseball. The stuff is electric. He strikes out a ton of hitters, he doesn’t walk that many and every indicator about him says he should be an absolute beast. But after a 2015 that was his third straight excellent season, he just hasn’t lived up to the hype. And now this year, he’s been extremely hittable with 145 allowed. I imagine the Pirates acquired him and his unbelievably valuable contract with the idea that they could fix him in a way they’ve fixed other pitchers before him. So far, he hasn’t been good in Pittsburgh, but maybe they can unlock some of what he’s capable of. PNC Park hasn’t been kind to him in his three starts there. He’s allowed a .293/.388/.517 line with just 15 strikeouts and eight walks. And like the previous two starters, he has a bigger issue with lefties than righties. Let’s just say if you play daily fantasy, Ryan O’Hearn might be a guy to stock up on. Of course, I just jinxed him, so move forward at your own peril there.

Fillmyer isn’t my favorite of the Royals young starters, but he’s shown me a lot more than I expected to see when he was called up. He’s gotten double digit swinging strikes in three of his last five starts, which is great to see. When he’s on, his slider is excellent and give him a chance to get through a lineup a couple of times. When he’s not on, well, he’s horrible. It’s those times where he gives up six runs in 2.1 innings and can’t protect a 6-2 lead. I honestly never know what to expect with Fillmyer on any given night, which is fine for a September game in a lost season, but it’s a big reason why I highly doubt he’ll be a key contributor on any good team.

I love the way the Royals are playing, but I just really don’t like the matchups in this series, so I’m going to predict the Pirates win two of three and put the Royals on the brink of 100 losses before they leave town.

The mind fairly reels at the myriad ways Ned Yost’s hapless band has strolled to [checks notes] sweet God, 94 losses? I would’ve bet higher. Anyway, the Royals have been walked-off, punished by the likes of Tim Anderson and goodness knows how many other Quad-A All-Stars, posted a minus-100 run-differential at home and you know what, that’s enough. Either way, this was a special one. Much like the weekend they turned Matt Davidson into Stan Musial, you always remember the greats.

I don’t like to poke fingers, which is great because there are no fingers to poke at anyone here; eight of the nine hitters in the lineup got at least one hit, and Jorge Bonifacio had three. But unfortunately, with the exception Eric Skoglund (in his first MLB appearance since May and looking like Walter Johnson compared to everyone else), nobody Ned found to throw the ball seemed able to string together more than a few outs at a time, and that’s how 10-6 losses to the Minnesota Twins happen.

That six-spot wasn’t the game’s opening salvo—the Twins put up a crooked number in the second inning, as starter Heath Fillmyer wavered back and forth between losing his control (lead off walk to Logan Forsythe, walk to Robbie Grossman to load the bases) and surrendering hits to Mitch Garver and Ehire Adrianza, the latter plating two to give the Twins a lead. It’s around this point I should’ve found something better to do with my Friday. Alas, I’ll never get back wasted hours of an ill-spent youth, and I won’t get these back either.

The third inning was all for the Royals. With one down, eight consecutive Royals reached base in some fashion. Whit Merrifield singled and Adalberto Mondesi walked, with both scoring via Alex Gordon double. Hunter Dozier then walked, and moved to third on Bonifacio’s run-scoring single which brought home Gordon.

Then Salvador Perez homered. 6-2 Good Guys, on Perez’s 17^th career home run at Target Field. Things looked promising—heck, the next two Royals even reached, with Rosell Herrera walking and Alcides Escobar knocking a single. Awesome!

For almost five minutes.

The Twins third went like this: Jorge Polanco single, Eddie Rosario single, Forsythe single (scoring Polanco), Jake Cave double (scoring Rosario), Garver groundout (scoring Forsythe), passed ball to score Cave. Four runs, tie game in the blink of an eye. Fillmyer was relieved after 2.1 innings, six hits, three walks and six earned. Probably back to the bullpen for him.

Thank heavens it would get worse from there. Two innings later, Forsythe got on base via Escobar error, moved to third on Cave’s single and took the lead on Garver’s ground out. Kepler turned Glenn Sparkman’s first-pitch slider into a run-scoring single; Sparkman had taken over to start the fourth, but wouldn’t last the fifth after that performance.

A combination of Skoglund and Jerry Vasto kept the Twins at bay for a couple of innings, but lol that wasn’t going to end the Twins day. Wily Peralta replaced Skoglund and Rosario deposited his first offering over the right field fence to put a crooked number in the opposing run column for the… 16^th time this season? Would’ve expected that number to be higher too.

Did the Royals have a runner advance past first base over the final three innings, in an effort to perhaps turn this into a contest? Dear reader, they did not. After eight straight reached base in the third, six Royals total got on the basepaths the rest of the game. I don’t do endings well.

Your Tweet of Despair

It’s 10:20. Only the 7th inning. Two teams playing with nothing at stake, and #Royals have to challenge. #wtf #areyoukiddingme

— Shawn Ed (@iShibs21) September 8, 2018

The Bright Spot: If he plays his cards right and finishes September on a high note, it’s possible that Bonifacio will break .250 after looking lost as last year’s Easter eggs for wide parts of July and August.

The Nadir: Anyone who attempted to pitch for the Royals and was not named Eric Skoglund.

The Next Step: They’re planning to do this again tomorrow night, at 6:10 p.m. (CT) this time, because everybody plays 162 of these things for some reason. Jose Berrios, whose 6.65 ERA over the last five starts is not the performance of a man who was a deserving All-Star, will be opposed by Jorge Lopez, who has none of those qualifications, positive or negative.

Speaking of mistakes, they were made against Jorge Soler and Mike Moustakas by the Texas Rangers on Friday night, but those mistakes ultimately didn’t matter in an 8-4 loss in the Lone Star State.

Moustakas’ 11^th slam of the season put things on solid footing for the Royals early. It’s not been the easiest trip for Moustakas—he entered Friday 2-for-15 on the road trip—but he remains one of 10 players league-wide with 50 hits, 10 doubles, 10 homers and 30 RBI and gave the Royals an early lead.

And Eric Skoglund had a two-run lead for almost two batters before surrendering a solo blast to Shin-Soo Choo’s Corpse. And while it’s fun to play “Who says no to Danny Duffy for Shin-Soo Choo aka baseball’s version of gout for cellulite?” the honest answer is that the Royals would pull the trigger on Choo (one fewer year of commitment, still semi-productive) for Duffy (extra year commitment, unclear if still any good more than once a month) in a vacuum. In the real world, Duffy matters in Kansas City in a way Choo could not, and for a franchise whose attendance is rapidly cratering, Duffy remains something of a draw every five days, especially if he can somehow start to turn it around. Choo would be a novelty for about a week, and then Just Another Guy.

Anyway, where was I?

Oh yeah, baseball game.

In the third inning, Delino Deshields led off with a triple, scoring on a Nomar Mazara ground out. That kicked off a stretch of three innings where Texas scored at least once an inning, beginning with the Deshields-Mazara combo in the third, a Ronald Guzman two-run dinger in the fourth and a two-run Mazara blast in the fifth. Jurickson Profar’s double one batter after Mazara’s homer ended Mr. Skoglund’s day after 4.1 innings and six earned, including three homers given up. His ERA is 6.70.

As for Kansas City, Soler homered during this time and while goofing on Soler is fun when Soler is (pick any of a number of dingusy things Jorge does), and despite the fact that he was 1-for-13 on the trip entering the game, watching Jorge Soler send baseballs into orbit is the only abject joy I feel like I regularly find with the Royals. He hits baseballs like he thinks they’ve wronged his family going back generations, and I respect the hell out of that.

Of course, by the end of Skoglund’s night, it was 6-3 Rangers and the Royals bullpen was heading in to fan the flames. I could stop right here but I feel compelled to finish this out because I’m a professional and you may need to take a large poop in the morning and I don’t want you to run out of reading material.

Because I’m a giver, that’s why.

And there are things I can say about Brian Flynn because he was good! I mean, he was Brian Flynn good; he didn’t make things worse, he struck a couple guys out and he gave the offense a chance to make up the deficit (it didn’t, because reasons). One could do worse than Brian Flynn.

And after 2.2 innings, the Royals did! Blaine Boyer. Blaine Boyer (COPY PASTE WHATEVER FORMER CRAP YOU’VE TALKED ABOUT BLAINE BOYER HERE, IT’S ALL THE SAME, TIME IS A FLAT CIRCLE). He gave up two runs in the eighth, the first on a Guzman triple (scoring Robinson Chirinos after a leadoff walk); Guzman then scored on a DeShields single to bring Texas’ night of offense to an end.

There also was a run-scoring Ramon Torres double in the seventh that does not really bear comment, aside from a “Hey, good for him.”

The Royals actually loaded the bases in the ninth, all with two outs. Jon Jay walked. Whit Merrifield singled. Moustakas walked. Things looked promising!

Salvador Perez worked a 3-1 count from Keone Kela. It was now or never. Kela unfurled a heater that caught the fat part of the plate. Perez swung, lifting a drive to center…

That DeShields settled under to end the game.

The Bright Spot: Flynn’s been working longer (five outings of two-plus innings of his last eight); maybe he’s turning into this year’s Mike Minor, who started for Texas Friday evening.

The Nadir: Skoglund has had better days. So has Salvy, whose flyout to end the game was part of an 0-for-5 evening that dropped his average to .244. Maybe batting average isn’t everything, but also maybe hitting .244 isn’t very good.

The Next Step: I am so excited to see Bartolo Colon throw pitches tomorrow I can’t stand it. And that’s a phrase you’ll never hear me say about Ian Kennedy unless he gets traded to the White Sox.

Rangers Vitals

Rangers vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Rangers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday

Bibens-Dirkx made his much awaited big league debut (for him) last season at age 32 and wasn’t horrible, I guess. He gave the Rangers some important innings when they were bitten by injuries (as they are now), but it wasn’t sustainable success with so few strikeouts. He also allowed 14 home runs in 69.1 innings. He relies heavily on a sinker-slider combination, but he doesn’t get nearly as many ground balls as you’d expect with his low strikeouts along with the heavy sinker usage. He isn’t overpowering at all with his sinker averaging just 90-91 MPH. His changeup and curve proved to be his most effective pitches last year, which surprisingly makes him a good opponent for the Royals to face as they’ve fared well on both changeups and curves this season. He did not face the Royals last season, but I could actually see this being a good offensive game for the boys in blue.

If I got paid $1 every time I was asked what’s wrong with Danny Duffy, I’d have gone a long way to pay off my student loans. I don’t know the answer. I know his slider is getting crushed, and I know that some might believe he’s tipping his pitches, but I think it’s much more problematic that he’s leaving it down the middle far too often. Why is he doing that? I don’t know. I can’t imagine his plan is to put a breaking pitch in the middle of the plate, but what do I know? He’s accountable in his words, but until he starts to figure something out, those words will grow emptier and emptier. Fair or not, that’s the rub of being a professional athlete. Maybe he can use his past success against the Rangers (3.25 ERA in six starts spanning 36 innings) to get going. The Rangers had hit .235/.312/.422 against lefty starters, which is not especially great, but it’s better than their numbers against righties. No Ranger has had huge success against him in the past, so maybe, just maybe this is the game for him. I won’t be counting on it, but we can hope.

Friday

When the Royals signed Minor prior to the 2016 season, they did so with the hope that he could be a solid starter and the understanding that he might just be a reliever. It turned out he was good enough in that role to get a big contract from the Rangers to work as a starter and he’s had some not so great results. His control has been excellent and he’s struck out enough batters, but he’s been surprisingly hittable with nearly 10 hits allowed per nine innings. He’s also, maybe unsurprisingly, getting knocked out of games early. He’s topped 100 pitches just once and has allowed nine runs on 14 hits in his last 8.1 innings, though he does have 14 strikeouts in that time. He’s actually gotten quite a few of his strikeouts with his 92-94 MPH fastball, but opponents have hit .364 with a  .701 SLG off it, so it’s a give and take for him with that one. He’s also been dominant against the few lefties he’s faced (.200/.200/.360) while righties have raked him (.291/.353/.552), which means Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez might have to shoulder the load in this one.

A quick glance at the numbers above and you wouldn’t think Skoglund is having a good year. And he is. But it’s still exceeding my expectations for him by a long shot. It’s hard to find too much surprise that a lineup like the one the Yankees roll out was able to get to him, but before that, he had a 3.86 ERA with 22 strikeouts and five walks in his previous 25.2 innings. The Rangers have some thump, but they aren’t anywhere near the Yankees stratosphere, so this is a good opportunity to bounce back. Four big lefties in the Rangers lineup have struggled with curves from lefties over the last few years. Choo is 3 for 22, Odor is 8 for 46, Gallo is 1 for 21 and Mazara is 8 for 39. Use it effectively and he can get the job done.

Saturday

The Royals have bungled a rebuild, won a title and are now entering another one since Colon made his big league debut 21 years ago. And here is, still going strong. After a bad year last year, we all thought it might be over, but Big Sexy has done a nice job for the Rangers this year. He’s doing his typical thing where he throws basically all two-seam fastballs and not very hard and just doesn’t walk anyone. This season, hits have been hard to come by, but home runs have not. Right-handed batters have hit 10 of them in 128 plate appearances. He’s just always around the plate, so it makes the home runs make some sense. At this point, he’s really a two-times through the order pitcher, allowing a .308/.339/.654 line when he sees a lineup a third time, so even if he’s on, he won’t be in too long at least. He’s 15-11 in his career against the Royals with a 5.04 ERA and got rocked in 1.2 innings last year, allowing six runs on six hits in his only start against them. Oh yeah, and Jon Jay home run alert. He has one against Colon in his career.

Kennedy is on a run of bad starts that’s seen his ERA spike to about where it ended last year, but some peripherals are still better than last year with more strikeouts and fewer walks. He’s just been so easy to hit with nearly 11 allowed per nine innings. He’s 0-2 with a 10.91 ERA in his last three starts, which isn’t helping matters, so hopefully this is the start that turns that around for him. The road has been a problem for him. He’s posted a 3.66 ERA at home in 32 innings, but a 7.84 ERA in 20.2 innings on the road. I don’t know if there’s anything to that other than noise (probably not), but it’s interesting. He also has yet to throw a pitch in the seventh inning this year. That’ll need to change at some point.

Sunday

The Rangers ace is the subject of trade rumors, and with good reason. He’s put together a really solid year with a ton of strikeouts and has limited hits really well. His home runs are a little bit up, but that’ll happen as the stuff starts to decline. After a dip last season, Hamels is getting about 33 percent more whiffs than last season, which has helped his strikeout numbers spike again this season, even in his mid-30s. He uses his cutter more than anything and mixes in a still very good changeup, four-seam fastball and sinker. Both fastballs sit around 91-92. He also throws a curve that has been outstanding this season. He’s 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five career starts against the Royals and dominated them last year, going 1-0 with a 0.57 ERA in two starts and allowing just seven hits in 15.2 innings. The strikeout numbers make it obvious, but he’s done a really great job of putting hitters away this season, allowing just a .130 average and .221 SLG when he’s been ahead in the count. It’s not a ton better when he’s behind, but it’s better, so, well, don’t fall behind.

Hammel is coming off his best start in a month, shutting down the Cardinals pretty well over seven innings. While he still allowed nine hits, there were some encouraging developments, including a 14.6 percent swing and miss rate with 13 whiffs after coaxing just eight in his last two starts combined. That, to me, has been the biggest issue with him this season. If you’re not getting any swings and misses, you’re in trouble. In my ongoing curiosity of his third time through the order struggles, I’ll note, he’s still been okay, allowing a .754 OPS the third time through, which is actually better than what he’s done overall. He’s 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA in eight appearances against the Rangers, including two rough ones last year, giving up six runs in just 8.2 innings over two starts.

Two bad teams doing battle with nothing on the line can make for some either fascinating baseball or boring baseball. With that in mind, I’ll give you a boring prediction and say the two teams split.

With that in mind, I present to you “Oh God, Not Again,” my new two-act play! I have it on good authority this will be taking over for Hamilton at the Richard Rodgers Theatre on Broadway once Hamilton’s run ends. And by that, I mean Lin Manuel Miranda didn’t answer the text I sent to the number the homeless guy outside the Rodgers Theatre swore was his, which I took for a tacit agreement.

Without further ado…

SCENE ONE

CURTAIN RISES

[int. Royals locker room]

NED YOST: Okay, listen up men. I know yesterday wasn’t what we wanted, but today’s a new day and we can still take the series! We’ve got Skoglund going, he’s been pitching well. Butera, you’re catching…

DREW BUTERA: (practicing hair flips) What’s that skip? Wasn’t listening.

YOST: Salvy is our DH. Sonny Gray hasn’t been very good in a while so I feel good about what this lineup can do today. You guys get out there and give it what you’ve got and we can start turning this thing around.

(LIGHTS DOWN)

(LIGHTS UP)

[fourth inning. Cal Eldred visits mound]

ELDRED: Okay kid, so maybe that wasn’t the best stretch, but Tyler Austin caught that one fat and Miguel Andujar’s triple was hit on a good pitch. We got the bottom of the order here, so it’s a good time to settle in, get back on track. Don’t be married to throwing first-pitch strikes if you’re catching too much of the zone.

SKOGLUND: You got it coach.

ANNOUNCER (SPECIAL ROLE FOR JIM BROCKMIRE, STAGE LEFT, SPOTLIGHT): And THERE’S a Romine single to score Andujar!

(LIGHTS DOWN)

(LIGHTS UP)

ANNOUNCER (STAGE LEFT, SPOTLIGHT): Hicks drives that ball deep to center, over Jon Jay’s head and it’s gonna go a ways! Stanton scores easily as the Yanks add another!

(LIGHTS DOWN)

(LIGHTS UP)

ANNOUNCER (STAGE LEFT, SPOTLIGHT): 0-2, the pitch to Austin and good golly, he belted that one folks, high and deep to center, Jay to the track, to the wall… good-bye! 6-0 Yankees as the long-ball revolution continues…

[SCENE]

SCENE TWO

[int. Royals clubhouse]

JAY: Jesus Christ.

JORGE SOLER: Jesucristo

PEREZ: I thought Ned said Sonny Gray was sucking now?

MIKE MOUSTAKAS: Sonny Gray has sucked for the better part of two seasons.

WHIT MERRIFIELD: Good-bye, hitting streak.

HUNTER DOZIER: Hey, I got two hits!

ALEX GORDON: Shut up, Dozier.

ALCIDES ESCOBAR: Cállate, Dozier

BUTERA: Hey, did y’all see me flip my hair when I walked that time?

MOUSTAKAS: Shut up, Drew. At least we didn’t get no-hit.

MERRIFIELD: We were on pace for it for a while.

GORDON: Would it have mattered? We gave up 10 runs.

SOLER: Chicos, tenemos que unirnos. Si no nos unimos, esta es una temporada perdida. Debemos unirnos No podemos señalar con los dedos.

ANNOUNCER (INTERPRETING, STAGE LEFT, SPOTLIGHT): Guys, we have to come together. If we don’t unite, this is a lost season. We must unite. We cannot point fingers.

JAY: What’d he say?

MOUSTAKAS: Something about a loss. (LOUDLY) We know we lost Jorge, don’t rub it in. And could you stop chasing first-pitch fastballs when nobody is throwing you those anymore?

JASON ADAM: Hey batters, you don’t have to take all the credit. We gave up four homers. I gave up two by myself!

BRIAN FLYNN: I didn’t give up any homers.

GORDON: Shut up, Flynn.

ESCOBAR (to SOLER): Podemos ayudar esto?

ANNOUNCER: Can we help this?

SOLER (to ESCOBAR): No sé cómo lanzar y no sabes cómo golpear, así que probablemente no.

ANNOUNCER (INTERPRETING, STAGE LEFT, SPOTLIGHT): I don’t know how to pitch and you don’t know how to hit so probably not.

YOST (enters): Alright fellas, so it didn’t go our way today. Shake it off; we’ve got St. Louis on the road coming up. Kennedy, Hammel and Junis against a coupla guys we’ve never heard of and Wacha. We can do this!

MERRIFIELD (to GORDON): He’s never heard of Miles Mikolas? He’s 5-0 with a 2.63 ERA?

GORDON (to MERRIFIELD): He’s rolling now, just let him go.

SKOGLUND: Oh God, not again.

SCENE

CURTAIN FALLS

LIGHTS UP IN THEATRE

Yankees Vitals

Yankees vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Yankees Projected Lineup

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday

Sort of quietly, Sabathia has been pretty good the last two years, but this is the best he’s been in quite some time. He doesn’t strike hitters out like he used to, but the fact that he’s not walking hitters makes that more palatable. His strikeout to walk ratio is as high as it’s been since he won the Cy Young in 2007 and he’s been so difficult to hit, allowing just 32 this season. He hasn’t gotten especially deep in games this season, averaging just a touch over five innings per start and he’s coming off a bad start against Boston, but he’s having a really nice year. He’s doing it mostly with his cutter and slider and mixing in his sinker and a changeup to round things out. Even though the cutter has been one of his main pitches, it’s the one that’s been hit the hardest with a .265 average against it and a .469 slugging percentage. He’s also issued three of his five walks with it, so that’s the pitch Royals hitters should sit on. The Royals haven’t seen a lot of cutters this year, but they’ve hit pretty well against them, so maybe they can do some damage. Alex Gordon has the most career at bats against Sabathia, but has hit just .182/.270/.242 against him. Really nobody on the roster has had much success against him. Jorge Soler is 1 for 2, so there’s that.

It’s nice that the Royals get to start a series with their best pitcher, but Junis is coming off a rocky outing against Cleveland. He really wasn’t bad, which says a lot about the season he’s had, but he also hasn’t faced a lineup like this yet this season. Junis has strangely enough allowed most of his home runs in Kauffman Stadium with 9 of the 11 coming there. A lot of that came in one game, but it’s still an odd statistical anomaly of a still early season. While right-handed hitters have only hit .190 against him this season, they have a .240 ISO with a sort of odd line of one double, one triple and seven home runs. The Yankees righty power could give Junis troubles based on those trends. Watch out for the third time through. He’s allowed a .327/.390/.615 line and a veteran lineup like this could really prey on him.

Saturday

Severino’s career path is fascinating. He had a tantalizing debut in 2015, giving 11 outstanding starts and was relegated to the bullpen in 2016 because he struggled so much. Then last year, he broke out with a fantastic season that he’s followed up this year by being even better. He’s even harder to hit, hasn’t allowed hardly any home runs and has gotten deep into games a lot of the time as well. He’s the total package. His fastball, which he throws nearly half the time averages 98.4 MPH. He also has a knockout slider and a really good changeup. Of his 70 strikeouts, 40 have come on the slider, which he’s allowing a .105 average with when he gets to two strikes. And here’s the genius of him as a pitcher. He throws a first pitch strike 70.5 percent of the time, but he also only allows a .188 average on the first pitch. Oh and when he’s ahead in the count, opponents are hitting .120/.128/.130. So if you’re following along, he’s nearly impossible to hit when he’s ahead in the count and throws a lot of first pitch strikes, but if you go after it, you’re likely to make an out. So what’s the solution? If I knew that, I wouldn’t be writing series previews.

And then there’s Duffy, who I have no idea what to do with. If we’re being honest, he could use about a month in AAA to at least try to work out whatever issues he’s having, but that can’t happen without a DL stint, so he’ll continue to work in the big leagues. Before his last start, there was a positive of him not walking hitters, but he gave up five in his last start on the way to allowing nine runs in 3.1 innings. Add in just six swinging strikes out of 87 pitches and there’s just nothing good to discuss. It sure looked like he took a step forward in the start before the last one, but he was also pitching with a 10-0 lead, so I really don’t know what to say about him. He was excellent against the Yankees last year, going 14 innings with a  1.29 ERA in two wins, so maybe something about facing the history of them will get him going. Maybe? I guess?

Sunday

Gray is one of the Yankees starters who has struggled this season. He had a nice bounceback season in 2017 and was solid for the Yankees after they acquired him, but this year, he’s struggled with control and has been just incredibly hittable. Plus there’s the little fact of an inability to go deep in games, averaging fewer than five innings per start and not going more than six in any. While his curve is still his money pitch and it’s been quite good, he’s seen his fastball get absolutely rocked with a .317 average against and .585 slugging percentage. Maybe more damning about it, though, is that it’s been the pitch responsible for 11 walks in 52 plate appearances ending on it. That’s not good. I mentioned what hitters do against Severino when he’s ahead in the count, but on the flip side, when opponents have the advantage over Gray, they’re hitting .422/.623/.778. Even if you’re not an expert, it’s pretty easy to say that’s not good. Oh yeah, and he’s behind a lot, throwing a first pitch strike just 53 percent of the time. He has a 2.77 ERA in four starts against the Royals, but hasn’t faced them since 2016.

I mentioned Skoglund in Friday Notes, but he’s been varying levels of impressive over his last few starts. He had one of his better starts of his career in his last one, which is on the heels of a solid start in Baltimore and just a few starts removed from the best start of his career. The Yankees are hitting .255/.337/.473 against left-handed starters, so this is a real test for the young lefty, and I don’t think he’ll pass it, but if he can, that’ll be very impressive. As we’ve discussed quite a bit, the curve is an important pitch for Skoglund and has been great in his good starts. Yankees hitters haven’t seen a ton of curves from lefties, but some of their best hitters have struggled with it, so if that’s on, he at least stands a chance.

Boy, I really don’t want to sit here and predict a sweep, but it’s hard to see this going any other way. Of course, it’s baseball and weird things happen, but I’m going to say there’s a Yankees sweep and more sadness in Kansas City.