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Thursday – 6:10 pm

Boyd is having a nice season, getting a good chunk of strikeouts, showing similar to control to his almost solid 2016 season and limiting hits extremely well. He does a lot of his work with his slider, which has been truly outstanding this year. He’s recorded more than half his strikeouts with it and allowed a .165 average with a .263 SLG. It’s interestingly not quite as lethal against lefties, though still good, but he’s allowed a bit more power to same-siders off it. He’s put together this solid year while being surprisingly not great against runners in scoring position, allowing a .286/.333/.473 in those situations compared to .203/.279/.364 with the bases empty. He’s gone 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA against the Royals this year in four starts with just one home run allowed in 25 innings.

Lopez looks like he’s in line to make this start after leaving his last one with a chest contusion after running into Hunter Dozier. He couldn’t quite follow up his near perfect game, going just 4.1 innings before the injury and allowing three runs on nine hits, but he really fell apart after the pain started, so it’s probably not fair to box score scout. He threw four shutout innings to start, and if he has his curve working against the Tigers, that’s a team that hasn’t seen him before and a really bad lineup, so he has an opportunity to put up a fantastic start if it’s working for him. The one thing I’d like to see is the swinging strikes like he got against Baltimore when he had 14 in 99 pitches. This Tigers team seems like one he could absolutely dominate, so it might be fun.

Friday – 6:10 pm

It sure looked like a bounceback season for Liriano after his sixth start of the year when he shut down a terrible Royals team to bring his ERA down to 2.97, but things haven’t gone quite as well since. In his last 19 games (18 starts), he’s gone 2-9 with a 5.18 ERA in 88.2 innings and struck out 75 while walking a whopping 53. Basically this is who he is now, fast start or not. That said, he’s been decent in September, allowing just four earned runs in 18 innings, though he has allowed five unearned runs, so it’s not all roses for him. He hasn’t been too bad early in the games, giving up a .225/.324/.326 line the first time through the order with a 3.86 ERA in the first three innings. But the second time through is a disaster with an .855 OPS allowed and the third time through is slightly worse at .863. It’s a small sample, but Jorge Bonifacio is 3 for 5 with two doubles and a homer against Liriano. I’m guessing he’ll be in the lineup for this one.

I think most people are ready for Ian Kennedy to just be done, but he’s got two more years under contract and it’s worth mentioning that in his first two starts off the DL, he’s been quite good. He’s gone six in both starts and allowed just two earned runs total while striking out 10 and walking five. The biggest thing for him, though, is no home runs allowed. It’ll be his first start against a team other than the Twins since June 29^th, so maybe this is another real test for him. Kennedy, if healthy, is going to be in the rotation next season, so it’s in the Royals best interest for him to pitch well because that’s better than the alternative.

Saturday – 5:10 pm

Given how bad Zimmermann was last season, this year has to be considered some sort of success even if it hasn’t been that great. Of course, he matches Liriano’s 5.18 ERA in his last 11 starts since the All-Star break. He’s not striking hitters out and he’s giving up tons of long balls with 17 allowed in that time. Lefties have crushed him, which I’d think bodes well for Ryan O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi, especially considering he’s not only easy to hit, but he’s around the strike zone a lot. Given that the stuff isn’t especially good anymore, he’s been hit hard on the first pitch with a  .400 average allowed and an .833 SLG. That’s six homers in 61 plate appearances that ended there, which isn’t a great number to have. He’s been fine against the Royals, but he struggled in his last start against them in July, going five innings and giving up four runs on seven hits and two homers.

Junis had been so good for awhile since coming off the disabled list, but the home run ball has returned and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning in his last start against the Twins. He’s now allowed five homers in his last two starts, and even though one was an eight-inning outing, there’s a little reason for concern. Luckily, Junis has purchased the Tigers from the Ilitch family as he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in four starts against them, going 31 innings, allowing 21 hits and striking out 25 while walking just three. It’s been a pretty impressive display and he’ll get the opportunity to go 5-0 against them in this one.

Sunday – 12:10 pm

It wasn’t supposed to be like this for Norris. He finished so strong as a 23-year old in 2016 that it looked like he was about to really emerge as a solid starter for the Tigers for years to come. Now, his fastball velocity is down to 90-91 after averaging nearly 94 in that 2016 season. He’s been mostly a two-pitch pitcher this year, using that (with some horrible results) and a slider (with some much better results). My guess is that if the velocity doesn’t come back, he won’t either, but the Tigers need bodies, so here he is. He is still striking out a ton of hitters with 40 strikeouts in his 34.2 innings, but he’s been a bit homer prone and just generally not all that good. He did pitch reasonably well his last time out against the Twins and he held the Royals to one run over 4.2 innings back in April, so that’s a couple things to build on for him if he’s looking.

Keller picked up his first career hit and run scored in his last outing, but continued to impress on the mound even though it wasn’t a great start for him. Yes, he gave up four runs on 10 hits in six innings, but he struck out seven and got a ridiculous 19 swinging strikes in 109 pitches. His slider was the king in this one with 11 swings and misses out of 17 swings and 31 total thrown. That slider could be a huge difference maker for him as he tries to stick as a starter into next season and beyond. He hasn’t faced the Tigers as a starter, so it’ll be a test for him, but if his slider is working, the success of Junis against them should bode well for Keller.

Like I said at the top, I think the Royals are better, but they’ve got some road woes still and four-game series are notoriously hard to win, so I’ll go with a split here, but at this point, nothing would surprise me.

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Monday – 7:15 pm

Liriano’s season started so strong and it looked like he might be a sneaky good signing, but after a fantastic outing against the Royals in early May, he’s posted a 6.12 ERA over his last nine starts. In the middle of that is a DL stint and he left his last start against the Astros with lower back tightness, so we’ll see if he can get deep in this one. Liriano is a sinker/slider/changeup guy these days, throwing his sinker 40 percent of the time and his sinker almost as much. But the best pitch for him has been his changeup, which has long been his strong pitch. He’s allowed just one extra base hit against hit all season long in 52 at bats. His slider is the strikeout pitch, and he’s been amazing against lefties (.088/.200/.193), so I expect it might be a long night for Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon. My recommendation would just be to sit Lucas Duda because of his work against lefties. He’s been good against the Royals this year with a 2.37 ERA allowed in three starts with just nine hits allowed in 19 innings. Salvador Perez is the lone Royal to have real success against him, hitting .333/.429/.667 in 14 plate appearances.

Ian Kennedy’s injury appears to give Fillmyer his shot to show the big league club what he can do in the rotation. It’s a small sample in the big leagues, but I don’t think he’s really anything to think about for the future, so I’d much rather Trevor Oaks be getting these starts, but for now, I guess he won’t. In AAA, Fillmyer posted a 5.75 ERA with 82 hits allowed in 67.1 innings and a below average strikeout to walk rate. In the big leagues, he’s struck out just seven while walking eight in his 15.1 innings. His stuff played decently in his long relief outings, but the Red Sox hit him around pretty well in his one and only start with three walks and no strikeouts. The Tigers offense is a good opportunity for him to excel, but if he doesn’t, I think that’ll say an awful lot.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Zimmermann hasn’t nearly lived up to his contract, but this season has been very good for him. His peripherals this year look a lot more like he did in his Nationals days when he was a fringe Cy Young candidate a couple times. It might even make him tradeable, assuming the Tigers pick up some of the $60 million or so remaining. One thing he’s done differently this year is he’s thrown his slider a lot more, and it’s been fantastic with opponents hitting just .209 with a .339 SLG against it and it accounts for 39 of his strikeouts this year. On two strikes, opponents have hit just .114 against it, which is just insane. I’m not sure how reliable home and away splits are, but in seven starts away from Comerica, Zimmermann has gone 2-1 with a 4.83 ERA compared to a 2.59 ERA at home. In a similar number of innings, he’s struck out seven fewer batters. He’s had one very good start against the Royals this year but lasted just five innings in a win. Whit Merrifield is 4 for 11 with two doubles against him in his career, so he provides some hope against him.

Smith is getting his chance in the rotation because of Hammel’s bullpen demotion. I have to admit that I don’t think too highly of Smith, but he does have some tantalizing off speed stuff to go along with a fastball that can bust into the high-90s. Still, the command is mostly garbage and his velocity sits much lower than you’d have expected him to. He did have a nice 10-inning run before being put into the rotation a couple weeks back which made some think that he might be turning the Luke Hochevar corner, but I have my doubts. He faced the Tigers once in a relief appearance earlier this year and gave up two runs on two hits with two walks in 1.2 innings. This Tigers team is worse than that one, so he’s going to need to show something or else it’ll look bad for him just as it will have for Fillmyer.

Wednesday – 1:15 pm

I think I say this every time the Royals face Boyd, but I really thought Boyd was going to break out. And he looked like he was going to until his last few starts. Through his first 13 starts, he was 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA with just 54 hits allowed in 75.1 innings. In the six starts since, he’s improved his strikeout rate considerably, but has gone 0-5 with an 8.36 ERA and allowed 32 hits in 28 innings. After allowing six home runs in those first 13 starts, he’s allowed six in the last six. It’s just been a nosedive to his season, which is really too bad for him. Like Zimmermann, the road has been a problem for him with a  1-6 record and 5.77 ERA in 53 innings with seven home runs allowed. I don’t know what this means exactly, but on the first pitch, opponents are hitting just .171 with a .314 SLG, so I guess a good plan of attack is not to blindly attack. While he’s been okay against the Royals this year, in 11 career starts, he’s gone just 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 51.2 innings with just 29 strikeouts and 70 hits allowed. Yikes.

We all know that Duffy has really turned things around, lowering his seasonal ERA to 4.40, which is amazing considering where it was just a couple months ago. I’m a little concerned with the number of pitches he’s been throwing. He’s thrown 100+ in all four starts in July and has been averaging 17 pitches per inning. The upside is that he hasn’t had a ton of stressful frames, but still, it’s a lot of pitches. In his last 11 starts, he’s 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and averaged  105 pitches per start and averaged 16.6 pitches per inning. Duffy has made one start against the Tigers this year, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 4.2 innings while he was struggling earlier this year. In his career, he’s 7-9 with a 4.23 ERA in 118.2 innings. After picking up his first home win of the year his last time out, maybe he’s getting back on track at The K, but his 5.89 ERA with more hits than innings pitched and a fairly disastrous strikeout to walk ratio is a bit troublesome. It’d be good if he could turn that around in this one.

I was going to predict that the Royals get swept in every series until they won one. And now they’ve swept one, so I’m going to give you some honest analysis here. It’ll be hard to keep the winning ways going with Fillmyer and Smith starting the series out for the club. I don’t have much faith in either of them, but I love what Duffy’s been doing over his last couple months. With that in mind, I’ll say the Royals win just one of three, but the Tigers are a big ol’ disaster too, so I guess you never know.

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Thursday

There once was a time when Fiers was a strikeout artist who seemed unhittable at times (and he does have a no-hitter to his credit). He used his high fastball to get a lot of fly balls back before balls were flying out of the yard at a record pace. He’s not that pitcher anymore. Okay, he still uses a high fastball, but he’s changed his game to coax more ground balls and a byproduct is the strikeouts have dropped significantly. It’s working for him so far, but I have to think there’ll be a correction soon if he keeps doing what he’s been doing. He’s allowing the highest percentage of barrels of the last four years and has an xSLG allowed of .508, which is nearly 50 points higher than what he’s allowed. He’s probably been a beneficiary of the cold weather around the country, so we might see a big-time regression from him soon. This year, the sample is obviously small, but he hasn’t made it past the sixth and has struggled mightily when facing a lineup the first time. He had a rough game against the Royals in Detroit the last time these two teams met, allowing four runs on 10 hits in just 5.1 innings and he didn’t record a strikeout. He got the win, but the Royals have seen him and hit him, which bodes well.

Skoglund is coming off what I actually think is the best start of his career. Yes, I believe it was even better than his debut against Detroit last season. He faced a White Sox team that had bludgeoned the Royals and gave up just a run on two hits over seven innings while striking out nine. He’s been steadily improving with each start, and if he improves on his last one, we might be looking at a no-hitter. Now, I still don’t believe he’s especially good, but the fact that he’s done it at least gives me some hope that he can do it again. His start prior to his last one was what is now his third best start of his career against this very Tigers team. He gave up four runs in five innings, so it wasn’t exactly one for the highlight reel, but maybe he can build on that. The Tigers offense has hit for next to no power against lefties this season, so Skoglund should work to take advantage of that.

Friday

Liriano has done a great job this year of limiting hits, which has helped him to overcome a very low strikeout rate and a too high walk rate. The problem is that, like Fiers, it doesn’t seem especially likely to continue given the fact that he’s giving up some quality contact. He’s allowed a .196 average and .353 slugging percentage, but his xBA of .278 and xSLG of .547 says that isn’t likely to last. He doesn’t throw a lot of first pitch strikes, doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses and is somehow still holding hitters down even when he’s behind in the count. Opponents are hitting just .212 with a .273 SLG when they’re ahead in the count, which doesn’t make much sense given his pitching profile. He’s allowed a .071 average with zero extra base hits with runners in scoring position, a situation he’s only been in for 16 plate appearances all year. It’s a nice story how well he’s pitched to date, but it isn’t likely to continue. He’s faced the Royals twice this year and has allowed four runs on six hits in 12 innings.

Kennedy came back from two subpar starts and a line drive off his foot to pitch well against the White Sox on Sunday, giving up two runs on five hits over five innings. He threw a lot of pitches, though, and labored through his final two innings, so that’s something to keep an eye on in this game. The concern for Kennedy as the weather warms up and hitters are a little more in sync is the fact that he hasn’t gotten many swings and misses this season with a rate of just eight percent. He was at nine percent last year and 10 percent the year before. It seems like it’s not that different, but it really is, especially with the kind of contact he’s allowed this year (average exit velocity of 90.5 MPH and 14.1 percent of batted balls barreled). Kennedy hasn’t faced the Tigers yet this year, but has gone 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 34.1 innings against them as a member of the Royals. Watch out for Miggy in this one. He’s a career .316/.435/.684 hitter against Kennedy in 23 plate appearances.

Saturday

At one point during the 2016 season, it looked like Zimmermann $110 million contract might be a bargain. That point has passed. After posting a 0.55 ERA in his first month with the Tigers, he’s gone 13-20 with a 6.26 ERA in 258.2 innings. He does have a pretty good strikeout to walk ratio of 2.5 in that time because even with all his struggles, his control has been okay. So that’s a nice thing to say. This year, he’s been absolutely mauled by righties with a .308 average allowed and .577 SLG, which could make for a nice day for Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield. He’s also been a completely different pitcher on the road than at home, with a  10.13 ERA in three starts covering just eight innings on the road compared to a 3.93 ERA in three starts covering 18.1 innings at home. This game is being played on the road for him, in case you’d forgotten. Even with his struggles, the Royals haven’t taken advantage, as he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings against Kansas City since joining the Tigers.

Hammel got hit and hit hard by Boston in his last outing. After starting the year allowing just one home run in 32 innings, he gave up two big ones, including a grand slam to the Red Sox and was unable to protect an early lead he was given. That doesn’t change the fact that he has put together a very nice bounceback season outside of his last start, but given how rough he had it last year, you have to wonder if he’ll regress to last season Hammel or keep up what he’d been doing. I said this before his start in Boston and I’ll say it again. His lack of strikeouts is concerning this year and is the reason why a team that has power concerns me against him. The Tigers have enough power to be dangerous, but he’s done okay enough against them with one rough start (that was plagued by a third time through the order barrage) and a fantastic nine inning start that the Royals somehow still didn’t win. Hopefully it’s more of the latter in this one.

Sunday

I liked Boyd to break out last year after a solid finish to his 2016 season, but he struggled and even spent some time in AAA to work out his issues. He dominated in Toledo and has had a nice start to his big league season, though his DRA indicates his strong start, like Liriano and Fiers before him, is not to be trusted. I have to say that I’m not really sure what’s not to like other than a low strikeout rate, which isn’t nothing, but he’s done a nice job of getting weak contact and looks the part of a solid big league starter. He’s been dominant against lefties, holding them to a ridiculous .095/.174/.095 line, albeit in just 23 plate appearances, but that’s not great news for Mike Moustakas or Lucas Duda. Boyd has had an interesting career against the Royals. He made his first start with the Tigers against them and was absolutely fantastic. Since then, things haven’t gone quite so well. In total, he’s made 10 starts against the Royals and has gone 2-5 with a 7.05 ERA. In 44.2 innings, he’s given up 64 hits. Moustakas and Perez have homers against him and Whit Merrifield has a .385/.467/.692 line in 15 plate appearances.

Junis didn’t have his best stuff his last time out, but was just the second visiting pitcher all season to throw a quality start at Fenway Park. That’s not nothing. And even without his best stuff, he gave up just two runs on seven hits while striking out five and walking one over six innings. He’s certainly been better this year, but he was plenty good and now he gets to face a Tigers team that he’s thrown 15 innings against this year and allowed just two runs on seven hits with 10 strikeouts and two walks. His weapon this year has been the sinker, allowing just a .231 average with it and a .385 slugging percentage. If he can have that working, along with his devastating slider, the Tigers will struggle against him again. Hitters have chased 31.5 percent of the time against him, and if he keeps that up, he’ll be just fine against a pretty hit or miss Tigers offense.

The Tigers record is much shinier, but I don’t think they’re any better than the Royals at this point in the season. Maybe that’s silly, but I really don’t. And just as the first six games of the season series have been split, so too will this series, I believe.

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Friday – Game One

Fulmer has incredible stuff and has looked very much like an ace in the making throughout his brief career, but there’s always been something missing. And then with an injury that cost him his September, he’s come back this year and has continued a troubling trend of not missing enough bats with his swinging strike percentage dropping from his rookie year to last year and so far there’s been a significant drop this year. Some of that might be a little by design as he’s flipped from way more four-seamers to sinkers his rookie year to the reverse this season. His slider is still fantastic, but he’s not getting to two strike counts as much as in his rookie season. Even so, he’s still very good and could give a Royals team that’s been struggling to make contact at times recently. In the young season, the big issue for Fulmer has been lefties. They’re hitting .351/.385/.676 against him, so I imagine Ryan Goins will get a start in this one.

Hammel has actually some pretty similar numbers to Fulmer so far this year, but he’s getting more swings and misses. He struggled in his first start of the year, which was against the Tigers because he couldn’t handle the third time through the order, which is no surprise. His last two starts have been better when the lineup turns over a third time, allowing just a .200/.273/.200 line. Now, it’s two starts and 11 plate appearances, but it has to start somewhere. I still wouldn’t trust him a third time through the order, but I fear with the bullpen issues and the double header that Hammel will get a chance to last a lot longer than he should in this game. Hammel has been hit a bit by the Tigers, but not for a lot of extra bases, which is interesting. Still, Candelario and Cabrera both have had success against him, so they’re ones to watch.

Friday – Game Two

Norris gets the spot start here after starting the year in the bullpen for the Tigers. His spot on the big league roster might depend on this game, which seems like it could go one of two ways for him. Either he relishes the chance and earns his spot or he implodes and the Royals can take advantage. Given the evidence, I’d say there’s a decent chance he can pitch poorly and still get good results due to facing the Royals, but you never know. After breaking out in 2016, I expected some big things from Norris last year, but he really struggled and now his role is tenuous at best. The odd thing about Norris is that he really struggled with lefties last year. The worrisome trend with Norris is that his fastball velocity is WAY down this year, averaging just 90-91 on it after averaging 93-94 last year. He’s throwing a ton of sliders to compensate, but it just doesn’t work well enough.

Junis was magical in his first two starts, but hit a wall against an excellent Angels team in his last start, falling prey to the home run ball. I think he has a good chance to bounce back against a subpar offense that he’s already pitched very well against. The key for Junis this year has been his slider. He’s allowed just four hits off it in 31 at bats that ended on it this year and has struck out 12 with it. Detroit hitters went just 1 for 12 against it with three strikeouts when they faced Junis in the opening week of the season, so expect that pitch to be his bread and butter in this one. The only hitter he’s really had trouble with has been Candelario who has three hits in five at bats against him. The Royals are really going to regret not getting him in the Wade Davis deal, I fear.

Saturday

I once really wanted the Royals to go after Fiers as I thought he was sort of a better version of Chris Young. Then home runs started flying out of the park at record rates and I was glad they didn’t sign him. As sort of a scrap heap type pickup, though, he’s had a nice first couple starts with the Tigers, showing good control and some swing and miss that he hasn’t had since his National League days with Milwaukee. He also appears to have altered his game a fair amount, at least through his two starts, getting a ton of ground balls so far this season. He doesn’t seem to be throwing different pitches or anything, so it’s probably just an anomaly, but for such a noted fly ball pitcher, it’s at least interesting. At least so far, getting to Fiers means getting to him early. He’s allowed a .308/.400/.615 line in his first 25 pitches. That bodes well for a Royals offense that has gotten going early in the past this season. Mike Moustakas is 4 for 8 in his career against him, and I have a feeling he has a big game against him in this one.

Duffy is coming off his best start by far, and it was very encouraging. He still walked too many batters, but he was getting strikeouts and his velocity was there all game long. If he can continue pitching like that, he’ll be just fine and his trade value will be just fine too. Of course, pitching on three days rest is an interesting test for a guy who has struggled with some injury issues. With some right-handed thunder in the Tigers lineup, his changeup will be especially important. So far this year, opponents are hitting .158 with a .368 slugging percentage against it. Surprisingly, his four-seam fastball has been almost as good (.167/.389), though he did allow two home runs on it. He’s had his issues with the Tigers the last couple years, going 4-2 but with a 5.87 ERA in 10 appearances against them. He did pitch quite well in Comerica Park last year, so hopefully he can repeat that in this one.

Sunday

Liriano has some really quality numbers considering how awful he was last season. Of course, some of it is a mirage as he’s still walked too many and isn’t quite striking out enough. I’m guessing he’s benefited quite a bit from the weather as well with the warmest first pitch coming in at a balmy 37°. I don’t expect his success to continue once hitting conditions begin to resemble baseball weather and the high looks like it’ll be in the 50s for this one. One thing he has done well that will probably continue to some extent is that he’s eaten up lefties, allowing just a .059/.158/.235 line to them in 19 plate appearances. When he was in the midst of revitalizing his career with the Pirates, he used his sinker to get a ton of ground balls, and while he still gets a decent amount, it’s not what it was before and I think that’ll start to hurt him once the ball starts flying a little more. I expect Salvador Perez will come off the DL at the start of the homestand, but he’s 4 for 10 with a double and a homer against Liriano, so maybe they’ll consider getting him off a little early.

If I was a betting man, I’d say this is Skoglund’s last start with Clay Buchholz approaching his opt out date and Skoglund being not so great. He did have his second best start of his career his last time out in Toronto. For what it’s worth, the second best start of his career meant five innings and five runs allowed, so take that for what it’s worth. The Tigers have struggled with lefties in general, but they’ve fared quite well against lefty starters, which is interesting. Skoglund did have his dazzling debut against the Tigers, so maybe he’ll muster up some old feelings, but at this point with him pitching, my greatest hope is that he gets lucky and gets through five with the Royals relatively close in the game. In trying to find a spot, any spot, where Skoglund excels, I found that he has allowed a .182/.250/.455 line with a man on first, so that’s kind of good at least.

These are two bad teams and while the Royals are playing some horrific baseball right now, the tide has to turn at some time. I’m going to be optimistic and say it starts to turn here and the Royals split the four-game set. It’ll be just in time for Perez to return and people can construct a narrative about him even though things probably would have turned even if he wasn’t back so quickly.

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Monday

Liriano had a rough 2017, split between the Blue Jays and Astros and ended the year as a reliever, but not a good one. No longer a tantalizing talent at 34 years old, Liriano really isn’t that far removed from being quite good. He had three straight solid seasons from 2013 to 2015 and then was excellent for Toronto after being acquired in 2016, so maybe he has something left in the tank, but it doesn’t seem all that likely to me. He’s a three-pitch pitcher really, showing a 93 mph sinker, a slider that’s still dirty and a changeup that will likely be the difference between him being successful or not. Last year, he handled lefty bats well, but righties absolutely destroyed him to the tune of .289/.392/.486 with 10 home runs. Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert will likely need to do the damage here to get the Royals some offense against him. Paulo Orlando has actually homered against him, so maybe this would have been a better game to get him in there in place of Alex Gordon or Jon Jay, but who am I to second guess?

Hammel was scheduled to pitch in the series finale, so I won’t reinvent the wheel here. Here’s what I wrote for that one: I don’t think Hammel was quite as horrible as the numbers and he did gives some value. He provided innings at least, and he probably underpitched his peripherals a bit. The obvious issue was when the lineup turned over a third time. He allowed a .690 OPS the first time through, a .740 the second time and then a .931 the third time. I’m not sure how he plans on changing that, but either he’s going to need to or Ned Yost is going to need to have a much quicker hook with him. Hammel had a brutal spring, if you’re into that sort of thing, so I imagine the Royals have more hope than expectation for him this season. This game is supposed to be played in some cold weather, so maybe he’ll have a good start with hitting conditions so poor.

Tuesday

Boyd was one of my picks to break out last season and one of the reasons why I thought the Tigers might be able to surprise people last year, but he had a really rough season. I like his curve, and thought his changeup would get to where he needs to be. It didn’t. But he still has all the same tools, so a breakout isn’t out of the question. He has a solid four-seam fastball, that good curve and a slider and changeup. He was really good when he was sent to Triple-A and he was really good the last month of the season and he’s still just 27, so I guess you never know. One of his weird splits from last year is that the 7-9 hitters hit .297/.360/.484, which makes me wonder if he lost focus as he got to the bottom of orders. A few Royals have hit well against him, but Whit Merrifield with three extra base hits in 10 at bats stands out, as does a lefty on lefty homer from Mike Moustakas.

At this point, you all know about how I feel about Junis. He finished the year so strong and looked so good in spring training that it’s natural to have high expectations. I don’t think it’s fair to pretend like he can be a staff ace, but I think he can be a very solid pitcher for this team. If I had to guess, I’d say the top of his potential is a 3.50 ERA over 180 innings or so, but if he hits that, that’ll be really nice to see. Of course, he may need to go all nine to get a win, but that’s a different story. He didn’t fare all that well against the Tigers last year with a 6.75 ERA in three appearances, but one of those appearances that helped to balloon his numbers was before he returned to the big leagues, so I’m not sure that tells us too much.

Wednesday

I also thought Norris would break out last year, along with Boyd. He also didn’t, and was even worse than Boyd. That’s part of how they won 64 games and ended up selling at the deadline. But like Boyd, he still has talent. Norris has a big fastball and a changeup that’s been really good, so I don’t know why he doesn’t throw it more. The fastball was torched last season and the slider had its issues as well for him. Norris is even younger than Boyd, though, not turning 25 until later in April, so there’s still time for him to figure things out, as long as his health is under control. He hasn’t been terribly good against anyone, but he’s been better against right-handed bats somehow, so that probably helps with the Royals power coming mostly from the left side. If you were wondering when Alcides Escobar might have a good game, he’s hit .500/.500/.875 against Norris in 18 plate appearances.

Duffy’s first start was kind of a disaster, but it wasn’t all bad. He did a nice job early in the game before he started missing down the middle against a team that appears like they won’t miss many mistakes. As I said the other day, I’m not convinced he’s healthy, but if he is, he’s going to need to find some velocity for his fastball and find some better command because baseball in 2018 will punish you for mistakes pretty often. Duffy had one good start against Detroit and a couple rough ones last year, including in his last start of the season. He’s handled Miguel Cabrera quite well, but has been bested by Victor Martinez, in spite of the fact that I’m not sure Martinez walks without a cane these days. This start is a very interesting one for Duffy, so all eyes will be on him.

This isn’t exactly a heavyweight fight, but three left-handed starters in a row do seem like a bad matchup for a team that relies so much on lefty bats (which, side note, is kind of ironic given how it seemed like they badly needed a left-handed hitter when spring training started). That’s not to say that guys like Merrifield, Cuthbert and Soler can’t do damage, but they’re not the established power guys at the very least. All that said, I think the Tigers bad bullpen is a little less bad than the Royals bad bullpen and the Royals lose two of three here. I might be predicting series losses all season long, actually.