Early on, it looked like they made a terrible mistake. Maybe moving on from Eiland wasn’t necessarily wrong, but Eldred didn’t appear to be a positive influence on the staff as they appeared unprepared for opposing offenses at times and unwilling to adjust. I know that’s an odd thing to say about a guy who never threw a pitch for the team, but I sort of felt like that was on him and I questioned his ability to do his job. Obviously the lack of talent in the bullpen was a problem, but even so, established pitchers were struggling as well, which is a bit concerning.

It was pretty much a struggle through July. The offense got more fun when Ryan O’Hearn came up and Adalberto Mondesi really got going, but it’s pretty easy to see why the team got better after July 31st. The pitching improved a great deal. After starting 33-73 with a 5.30 ERA, they went 25-31 with a 4.26 ERA the rest of the way. August wasn’t stellar, but the starters had an ERA of 4.90 while the bullpen’s was down to 4.52, their second lowest mark of the season to that point. In September, the starters really kicked it up with a 3.49 ERA and the bullpen posted a 4.39 mark, their new second best. Take a look at the starter and reliever ERAs by month here:

I guess the question is whether or not that was just noise or if there’s something to it. I think simply not having Blaine Boyer and Justin Grimm helped and limiting the innings of Jason Hammel helped quite a bit too. And overall, the numbers weren’t really that much better. There was a spike in strikeout percentage in August, but that dropped significantly in September as well as the swinging strike rate, so maybe the September numbers are a bit of a mirage. I’ll get back to that in a second on an individual basis, but here are their numbers month-by-month.

And finally, before I get into the individuals, I found it very interesting that the team ground ball percentage as a staff in the first half was 41.7 percent, which ranked fifth lowest in baseball. The fly ball percentage of 37 percent was fifth highest. In the second half, the ground ball percentage was 45.3 percent (third highest) and the fly ball percentage was 33.1 percent (fourth lowest). Here’s a look at the ground ball and fly ball numbers by month followed by the home run per nine numbers:

Now let’s talk individuals because it’s one thing to look at team numbers, but they include guys like Boyer, Grimm and Hammel and a bunch of pitchers who don’t really matter to both the future of the team and even a cursory evaluation of Eldred in his new role. The young guys are who Eldred was brought in to work with, so I actually want to see how they did throughout the season. Let’s start with the success stories and move into the…others.

Brad Keller

It’s hard to fully evaluate Keller’s season on a month-by-month basis because the first two months were mostly spent in the bullpen and then he had to evolve a bit as a pitcher, which he absolutely did. This is an Eldred success story if you pin that on a coach. He saw his strikeout percentage jump up in the last two months and his swinging strike percentage go way up in his final month with his walk rate taking a tumble. It all kind of came together for him in September as you can see his ground ball rate jumped back up to where it was early in the year as well. All in all, this is a fun one to look at.

Heath Fillmyer

Fillmyer is a massive success story even if he never becomes a solid big league pitcher. Maybe it’s just my perception because I believed he was a big nothing burger, but he just kept getting better as the season went on. When he first came up, he was a ground ball machine, as you can see below, but after settling into a starting role, he wasn’t quiet that. Still, in September, like Keller, he put together is best effort with season highs in strikeout percentage, swinging strike percentage, walk percentage (well, low there, but that’s good) and a solid enough ground ball rate. His slider is a legitimately quality big league pitch, limiting opponents to a .242 average and .318 SLG with a 35.3 percent whiff rate. The surprise is that his changeup and curve both were solid as well. He may need to pitch backward a bit, but I think there might actually be a future on a big league club for him.

Jakob Junis

It was a truly odd year for Junis, who started off looking like he was going to way outperform projections, then his season took a dark turn and then he ended up about where everyone thought he would. The key for him is keeping the ball out of the air a little better. Through June, he’d allowed 22 homers in 96.1 innings, which is decidedly not good. And he had a fly ball rate of 43.8 percent. From July through the end of the year, he allowed 10 home runs in 80.2 innings. That’s decidedly much better. And his fly ball rate then was down to 29.2 percent. His home run per fly ball wasn’t drastically different. It was good to see him continuing to keep the ball in the park even while throwing a ton of strikes. Just look at those walk rates.

Kevin McCarthy

The reason I think McCarthy was a success for the coaching staff isn’t so much the performance on the surface because he was relatively steady all year. What gets me excited about McCarthy is that he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher (64.3 percent on the year), but he started getting swings and misses in August and September. Look at those rising swinging strikes rate (11.6 percent and 12.2 percent respectively after not topping 9.6 percent in any month). If he can do that while maintaining a fantastic walk rate and his ground ball rate, he might be more than a middle reliever moving forward. It’s at least worth watching.

Danny Duffy

Duffy isn’t young, but he is a part of the future, and his season cannot be classified as anything but disappointing. Injuries played a big role here, so I don’t want to put this on Eldred, but it was a rough go. We know the baseball card numbers, but in August, his swinging strike percentage was down to just 7 percent, which is well below his average. I’m guessing this was injury, but look at this chart. He was just all over the place. I’m not sure it tells us anything, but he had a weird year. You can probably ignore September given that it’s just two-thirds of an inning and seven batters worth of work.

Brandon Maurer

Please help me. There’s something about Maurer that makes me wonder if he can be something next year. After some adjustments, his strikeout percentage jumped from 8.8 percent in July to 25 percent in August and 25.8 percent in September. He still walks too many and he’s terrible, but this is exactly the reason why he’ll get chances until he’s 112. Anyway, I just wanted to throw him in because I’m mean.

Burch Smith

He’s not good. He’s not a big leaguer. He didn’t get better. He’s just not good. But hey, he walked fewer batters in July and August. So there’s that.

I thought about throwing in Tim Hill and Jorge Lopez, but they weren’t especially interesting, though it is worth noting that Hill saw his walk rate cut in half from the first half to the second and his strikeout rate remain mostly the same. He doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses, but his ground ball rate is so good that you’re okay with that as a LOOGY. The big win for him was cutting that walk rate because he was putting way too many guys on early. Lopez is tough to gauge because the sample is tiny, but also because he was in a different role with the Royals than he had been in the big leagues before.

One other player who was of interest was Eric Skoglund. I was pretty adamant he wasn’t a big leaguer, and I might have been wrong about that. He came back in September and the back of the card numbers were very good with a 1.33 ERA and just 11 hits allowed in 20.1 innings, but the underlying numbers were not great. The sample was obviously very small, but he’s worth watching to see if that was a mirage or the improvement was for real.

In all, I really liked the trend of a fair amount of young pitchers. I’m not sure this is the best way to evaluate Eldred as a coach, but is there really a great way to evaluate coaches? It’s kind of on the players. I’d say the improvements throughout the year at least reflect well on him and seeing guys like Junis, McCarthy, Keller, Fillmyer and some others improve in various ways as the season progressed makes me hopeful for him to be able to continue to make an impact as the pitching staff theoretically skews younger over the next few seasons. I’m not sold on him, but I do feel much better about him than I did early in the season

The starting pitching, though, is rough. They have a lot of young arms to go along with Matt Harvey and 1-14 Homer Bailey, but they’ve all been somewhere between bad and average, so there’s a ways to go. But at least the bullpen has some promise with Raisel Iglesias at the back end.

Reds Vitals

Royals vs. Reds

Offense

Pitching

Reds Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday – 5:40 pm

The Royals get to face one of the 2015 World Series heroes in this one, though they did face him once after the World Series, so it’s not Matt Harvey’s first time seeing the Royals blue since that fateful night. Still, it’ll be fun to relive some of that Game Five magic in this one where the Royals presumably broke Harvey to the point that he was dealt to the Reds after being DFAed. He hasn’t been bad in Cincy, though, with a 4.46 ERA and a solid strikeout to walk ratio. He’s still too hittable and not nearly what he was through 2015, but he’s been serviceable. He’s had a bit of an interesting September for the Reds, posting a 4.63 ERA that’s pretty well in line with his season number, but he’s gotten a ton of whiffs while also giving up his share of homers. It’s all just sort of incongruent, but I guess that’s the story of his career lately. He just doesn’t have the same putaway stuff he used to, and when hitters go up in the count on him, they have a chance to do serious damage. He’s allowed a .462 average and .923 SLG on 1-0 counts and a .556 average and 1.500 SLG on 2-0 counts. Lefties have raked him for power with a .222 ISO, so in that ballpark, I’d expect at least four Ryan O’Hearn homers.

Skoglund has now made two starts since coming off the DL (and one relief appearance) and the results have been quite good with a total of 13 innings pitched, seven hits allowed and just two runs with only three walks. Of course, he’s also only struck out six, which isn’t good at all. I still have plenty of doubts about Skoglund long term, so it’ll be good to get to evaluate two more starts of his since the Royals have shut down Brad Keller to get him an extra one on the final day of the season. One of the most shocking Skoglund stats that I thought I’d share is that opponents are actually at their best against him when they’re behind in the count with a .318 average and .541 SLG. That can’t happen.

Wednesday – 5:40 pm

Cody Reed also has ties to the 2015 World Series squad as he was dealt in the deal for Johnny Cueto, and he’ll make his seventh start of the season against the Royals in this one. Aside from an April start, Reed had pitched out of the bullpen exclusively in the big leagues until August 30, and he’s been outstanding in his last two, going 11 innings with no runs allowed on seven hit and with 16 strikeouts against just two walks. I really liked Reed as a Royals prospect and it seems he might be starting to show off some of that potential. He works heavily with a slider, throwing it nearly 41 percent of the time since his return to the rotation, and it’s been outstanding, holding opponents to a .186 average and .279 SLG and has been responsible for 21 of his 25 strikeouts. Watch out, righties. He hasn’t faced many lefties, but he’s been basically 50/50 fastball and slider to them and they’ve crushed his fastball. Given the roster, some lefties will have to play, so they better be hunting fastballs. He does tire out quickly with his OPS allowed going from .599 in the first plate appearance to .761 in the second to a whopping 1.194 in the third. If the Royals can wait him out, they can hit him.

I continue to have no idea what to make of Fillmyer. I think his slider is big league good, but he just gets roughed up sometimes and in situations that make me wonder how he ever has good starts. But then he goes out and has some good starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his four September starts and was solid against Pittsburgh last time out. He’s actually started getting some more swings and misses, with his swinging strike rate jumping from just under six percent to just over nine percent in the second half. It’s still not quite enough, but I could see him faring very well in a swingman role on a better team. The Reds, as a team, are not exactly world class against sliders, so if he has it working, it could be another good start for him. Of course, his 7.22 road ERA makes me wonder.

Neither team is good, and I expect this series to be about whichever team is more into it. I’ll go ahead and say the Royals split it with the Reds, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Skoglund and Fillmyer both get hit around too much for the Royals offense to keep up.

Well, that’s a complicated question. He was really good against the Pirates on Wednesday night. He was pretty good against Baltimore back on Sept. 1, but put a huge asterisk there—my one-year old could pitch short relief against Baltimore if we could figure out which hand is his dominant hand yet. He was great against the Cubs in early August, when he earned his first win.

So he can be really good. But he can also get his butt kicked like he did against Minnesota a week after the Baltimore game, or against Chicago exactly a month ago. He was lackluster in a previous August start against the Twins and against Toronto right before the White Sox debacle. There’s no rhyme or reason to it; his two worst starts were on the road, but so was Wednesday’s performance. He beats Cleveland and gets destroyed by Minnesota. He limits contact, but he also walks more than you’d care to see and he doesn’t really strike people out.

The Royals lost, but that doesn’t do much for cracking this enigma—the Royals lose all the time, to teams great and terrible and the Pirates are somewhere in between. He put at least one runner on in five of seven innings, and one—the fifth—featured Adam Frazier’s go-ahead home run… and yet he only allowed two runs. He struck out five—one off his career high—and walked zero for the first time in an MLB start, so there’s some progress there? Hey, I’d like to have better news if I’m gonna have this guy in my life every five days.

Clint, who is smarter than me or you, shared this…

Fillmyer’s changeup has been by far his best pitch and one of the better pitches by a Royals pitcher this season. If he can come up with a better breaking pitch the Royals may have a legit starter here. https://t.co/Qf2JwBQl1A

— Clint Scoles BP (@ClintScoles) September 20, 2018

… which checks out, to a certain point. Would it be less effective if he threw it more often than the 13.3 percent of the time he used it, according to Brooks Baseball? Maybe. It has a little more to it than your typical straight change—a little bite, a little verve. It’s possible that’s mitigated if batters start to see it more than once every seven-to-eight pitches. It’s possible nothing would happen and he’d remain the same head-scratching arm he is every time out.

Boy. Used a lot of words on Fillmyer there, but that’s partly because not much happened in this 2-1 loss to close out the series in Pittsburgh. Frazier’s homer we talked about. Colin Moran’s run-scoring sac fly in the second put the Pirates on the board first, Adalberto Mondesi’s homer an inning later tied it and Frazier’s blast in the fifth put the Pirates ahead for good.

The defense did help Fillmyer out a bit. In the very first inning, Josh Bell doubled and Francisco Cervelli hit Fillmyer’s next offering into center for a single. Bell decided to test Whit Merrifield’s arm in center; people underestimate Whit at their peril, as Mr. Bell discovered when he was gunned down by a couple of steps.

In the fifth, Hunter Dozier’s bare-handed pick and throw to first got Kevin Newman by two steps. Two batters later, Frazier hit his homer to make it 2-1 Pirates; little did we suspect that’s what it would remain, but Chris Archer (seven innings, six hits, one earned, eight strikeouts) was on one, as the youths say.

Except for one pitch.

We’ll leave you with this tonight as I spent far too much time on Fillmyer and far too little on anything else. In the third inning, Mondesi hit a baseball 421 feet, which is a distance that feels very much in the milieu of Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge but not a 23-year old, 190-pound shortstop who, quite frankly, looked terrifyingly out of his depth during last season’s audition.

Yet BERTO was a row of seating and a very narrow concourse from hitting a baseball into the Allegheny River. He’s gonna be alright.

Your Tweet of Despair

#Royals lose 100 games for fifth time in team history, all since 2002. Need to finish 5-5 to avoid franchise-record 106 losses, set in 2005.

— Chris Fickett (@ChrisFickett) September 20, 2018

The Bright Spot: Fine fielding and fine hitting from Dozier, who went 2-for-4. BERTO just because. I guess Fillmyer (for this game).

The Nadir: Gordon, Perez and O’Hearn aka Nos. 3-5 aka 0-for-11 with three strikeouts.

The Next Step: Jorge Lopez makes his seventh start of 2018 for the Royals to open the series against the Tigers in Comerica Park. Matthew Boyd makes his fifth start… against the Royals… this season, which should’ve probably yielded something better than 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA. 6:10 p.m. (CT) on FSKC, MLB.tv or 610 for those who prefer not to watch a bad-baseball crime.

Pirates Vitals

Royals vs. Pirates

Offense

Pitching

Pirates Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 6:05 pm

Musgrove was a nice acquisition from the Houston Astros, even if it seems like they should have gotten more for Gerrit Cole. He’s a guy who throws strikes and is generally an acceptable member of a big league rotation. This year, he’s really fit the bill as an average starter, which has legitimate value. He isn’t just a control type guy either. He has decent stuff, averaging 94 on his fastball along with a changeup and a slider that have been generally really good this season. Lefties have hit him much better with a .763 OPS and a .167 ISO compared to .615 and .113 respectively against righties. He’s not one to get terribly deep into games, pitching into the seventh in only about half his appearances and past there just one. Still, he’s a solid pitcher and a guy I could see the Royals struggling against.

Keller is starting to get some run as a Rookie of the Year candidate and while I think he’s the fourth best rookie at best this season, it’s nice to see him get the publicity. After another fantastic outing his last time out, he’s posted a 6-2 record with a 2.95 ERA since the break in 10 starts. He’s averaging better than six innings per start, striking out a reasonable number of batters and has even been getting more swings and misses lately, which is the biggest thing plaguing him in his quest to be a starter. I think there’s still reason to be skeptical, but he’s answered the bell all season long, and that’s great to see.

Tuesday – 6:05 pm

Taillon is a great story, having come back from cancer last season and looking like he’s put it together this year to become a very good big league starting pitcher. He gets strikeouts, has good control, limits hits well enough and eats some innings. He’s not an ace, but he’s certainly working his way into becoming a number two. He lives on 96 MPH pitches, throwing his four-seamer about 35 percent of the time and his sinker about 23 percent. His curve and slider are both very good, but his curve is the real strikeout pitch, making up 56 of his 156 strikeouts this season. Like Musgrove, he has a decent left-right split, so the Royals big lefty bats might be able to do some damage against him. The one thing that might make him seem like a candidate for some regression (in the future) is that he’s allowed a .264/.312/.429 line with nobody on, but .189/.269/.266 with runners in scoring position. It’s not that pitchers can’t be better in different situations, but that’s a pretty big gap.

Skoglund gets to make his second start since his long DL stint, and he was actually pretty good in his first one, giving up two runs over five innings. He was limited to just 67 pitches, so I doubt he’ll throw a ton more than that, but the Pirates are a touch worse in the contact department against lefties than righties, so if his curve his working for him, he might be able to turn in a good game. As you all undoubtedly know by this point, I’m a big proponent of swing and miss rates being a good indicator for the future and Skoglund just doesn’t get them. If he’s going to succeed, he’s going to need to, and I just don’t see it for him, but I’m rooting for it to happen.

Wednesday – 6:05 pm

I can’t imagine there’s a bigger “what if” pitcher in all of baseball. The stuff is electric. He strikes out a ton of hitters, he doesn’t walk that many and every indicator about him says he should be an absolute beast. But after a 2015 that was his third straight excellent season, he just hasn’t lived up to the hype. And now this year, he’s been extremely hittable with 145 allowed. I imagine the Pirates acquired him and his unbelievably valuable contract with the idea that they could fix him in a way they’ve fixed other pitchers before him. So far, he hasn’t been good in Pittsburgh, but maybe they can unlock some of what he’s capable of. PNC Park hasn’t been kind to him in his three starts there. He’s allowed a .293/.388/.517 line with just 15 strikeouts and eight walks. And like the previous two starters, he has a bigger issue with lefties than righties. Let’s just say if you play daily fantasy, Ryan O’Hearn might be a guy to stock up on. Of course, I just jinxed him, so move forward at your own peril there.

Fillmyer isn’t my favorite of the Royals young starters, but he’s shown me a lot more than I expected to see when he was called up. He’s gotten double digit swinging strikes in three of his last five starts, which is great to see. When he’s on, his slider is excellent and give him a chance to get through a lineup a couple of times. When he’s not on, well, he’s horrible. It’s those times where he gives up six runs in 2.1 innings and can’t protect a 6-2 lead. I honestly never know what to expect with Fillmyer on any given night, which is fine for a September game in a lost season, but it’s a big reason why I highly doubt he’ll be a key contributor on any good team.

I love the way the Royals are playing, but I just really don’t like the matchups in this series, so I’m going to predict the Pirates win two of three and put the Royals on the brink of 100 losses before they leave town.

Note: All advanced stats through action on Tuesday.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 7:15 pm

A quick look at the ERA and DRA difference for Gonsalves shows he’s been a little unlucky in his 12.1 innings at the big league level. Okay fine, so he’s been terrible either way. The royals had their way with him in Minnesota, but unfortunately his opponent then and in this one couldn’t hold a big lead after the Royals got to him in the third. In his big league career, he’s walked 13 and struck out six. I don’t care if you have talent, that doesn’t play. The sample is obviously tiny, but in 16 plate appearances against lefties, he’s allowed a ridiculous .429 ISO. Righties have hit him hard too, but yikes. The stuff just isn’t there for him. He throws his midding fastball a lot and of his secondary pitches, only his slider has been even close to being worth a damn. He didn’t last long last week, so nobody has more than two plate appearances against him, but the hits came from Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Modnesi, Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield. I sort of have a hunch that if Hunter Dozier plays, he’ll have a big game against Gonsalves too.

Fillmyer continues to never allow me to either buy in or sell on him. For the second time in just 10 starts, he was given a big lead that he coughed up relatively quickly. This time, the Royals plated six in the third against these very same Twins and he promptly gave up four and couldn’t escape the third. It was reminiscent of his start against the White Sox where he had a 6-0 lead and couldn’t get out of the fourth before giving that up. The Twins have proven to be a struggle for him with nine runs allowed in just 5.1 innings. Luckily this game is in the comfort of Kauffman Stadium where he’s 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven games and has allowed just 31 hits in 39 innings and only two home runs. Maybe that’ll help him get over the hump against the Twins.

Friday – 7:15 pm

The Royals just saw Berrios a few days ago and he was very good, going six innings and allowing just a run on three hits. Expect to see Alcides Escobar in this one as his .353/.353/.706 line against him will make him a must-start for the Royals…for some reason. Berrios has continued his success against the Royals this year after struggling his first two seasons. He’s now 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this year. His last bad start against the Royals was July 1^st last year, so maybe he’s due.

Lopez gets to make his next start following his near-perfect game against the team he almost threw it against. He was magnificent last week against the Twins, obviously, and following that game was one of the greatest highlights of a terrible season. I’ve long been a believer that Lopez is a reliever long-term, as I’ve said before, but he seems to be doing everything he can in his last two starts to get me to change my mind. The big thing for me in the past has been that he just begins to struggle a bit at 50 pitches or so. In his last two starts, opponents have hit .174/.208/.174 against him after the 50^th pitch. Sure that’s arbitrary and it’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging. Now let’s see him do it again.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

De Jong had his first start since last season against the Royals last weekend and looked pretty good, giving up just one hit in four innings, though he walked four. He uses a four-seam fastball that doesn’t have much zip quite often and then mixes in a slider and changeup, both of which were quite effective against the Royals last week. The sample is tiny, but his fastball has been hit around in his career, so if he lives on that too much, a young lineup like the Royals that hunts mediocre fastballs should be able to do some damage. He’s allowed a .300/.394/.483 line to lefties in his career, which seems to be a good sign for guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin and Adalberto Mondesi.

Like it or not, Kennedy is signed up for two more years and will at least be part of the rotation to start next season, so his performance against the Twins on Sunday was really encouraging. I loved the six innings with one run on four hits, but I really loved 14 swinging strikes in just 93 pitches. His fastball, which is so important, was absolutely outstanding. If he’s going to provide value again, he’s going to need that fastball to be doing its thing.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

It’s been a nice season for Gibson with the most strikeouts of his career while his walk rate has remained mostly steady. Between the extra swings and misses and the lack of hits allowed, he’s looking like he might have made some sustainable changes to keep him as a solid number three starter for the next couple years at least. If we’re being honest, given his affordable salary and inconsistent track record, the Twins would probably be wise to shop him this offseason. Gibson has been dynamite when ahead in the count, allowing just a .168/.176/.284 line to opponents with just 12 extra base hits in 194 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a reason to not believe, he’s allowed a .244/.332/.420 line with the bases empty and .191/.258/.255 with runners in scoring position. That bases empty line is pretty much in line with what he’s allowed on the whole in his career, so there’s a decent bet that’s who he is and he’s had some strand luck. I guess we’ll see next year if it can carry over.

Junis is going to earn himself a reputation as a second half master. In 123.2 innings after the break in his young career, he’s 10-3 with a 3.20 ERA. This year, he’s 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA since coming off the DL, which also coincides with the break ending. The 58 strikeouts and 12 walks in 60.1 innings are really encouraging and he’s now gone four straight starts without issuing a walk, with the streak reaching 116 batters. That’s pretty good. He’s been a horse in his last three starts too, going 24 innings with 15 hits allowed and 18 strikeouts. The home runs crept back in a little bit in his last start with two in the third, so that’s something to keep an eye on, but he’s just been so good recently that we’re back to anxiously awaiting each Junis start.

Four game sets are often split, and four-game sets between two teams with nothing to play for probably are even more so (don’t look that up). So yeah, I’ll say a split. I know, I know…boring.

The mind fairly reels at the myriad ways Ned Yost’s hapless band has strolled to [checks notes] sweet God, 94 losses? I would’ve bet higher. Anyway, the Royals have been walked-off, punished by the likes of Tim Anderson and goodness knows how many other Quad-A All-Stars, posted a minus-100 run-differential at home and you know what, that’s enough. Either way, this was a special one. Much like the weekend they turned Matt Davidson into Stan Musial, you always remember the greats.

I don’t like to poke fingers, which is great because there are no fingers to poke at anyone here; eight of the nine hitters in the lineup got at least one hit, and Jorge Bonifacio had three. But unfortunately, with the exception Eric Skoglund (in his first MLB appearance since May and looking like Walter Johnson compared to everyone else), nobody Ned found to throw the ball seemed able to string together more than a few outs at a time, and that’s how 10-6 losses to the Minnesota Twins happen.

That six-spot wasn’t the game’s opening salvo—the Twins put up a crooked number in the second inning, as starter Heath Fillmyer wavered back and forth between losing his control (lead off walk to Logan Forsythe, walk to Robbie Grossman to load the bases) and surrendering hits to Mitch Garver and Ehire Adrianza, the latter plating two to give the Twins a lead. It’s around this point I should’ve found something better to do with my Friday. Alas, I’ll never get back wasted hours of an ill-spent youth, and I won’t get these back either.

The third inning was all for the Royals. With one down, eight consecutive Royals reached base in some fashion. Whit Merrifield singled and Adalberto Mondesi walked, with both scoring via Alex Gordon double. Hunter Dozier then walked, and moved to third on Bonifacio’s run-scoring single which brought home Gordon.

Then Salvador Perez homered. 6-2 Good Guys, on Perez’s 17^th career home run at Target Field. Things looked promising—heck, the next two Royals even reached, with Rosell Herrera walking and Alcides Escobar knocking a single. Awesome!

For almost five minutes.

The Twins third went like this: Jorge Polanco single, Eddie Rosario single, Forsythe single (scoring Polanco), Jake Cave double (scoring Rosario), Garver groundout (scoring Forsythe), passed ball to score Cave. Four runs, tie game in the blink of an eye. Fillmyer was relieved after 2.1 innings, six hits, three walks and six earned. Probably back to the bullpen for him.

Thank heavens it would get worse from there. Two innings later, Forsythe got on base via Escobar error, moved to third on Cave’s single and took the lead on Garver’s ground out. Kepler turned Glenn Sparkman’s first-pitch slider into a run-scoring single; Sparkman had taken over to start the fourth, but wouldn’t last the fifth after that performance.

A combination of Skoglund and Jerry Vasto kept the Twins at bay for a couple of innings, but lol that wasn’t going to end the Twins day. Wily Peralta replaced Skoglund and Rosario deposited his first offering over the right field fence to put a crooked number in the opposing run column for the… 16^th time this season? Would’ve expected that number to be higher too.

Did the Royals have a runner advance past first base over the final three innings, in an effort to perhaps turn this into a contest? Dear reader, they did not. After eight straight reached base in the third, six Royals total got on the basepaths the rest of the game. I don’t do endings well.

Your Tweet of Despair

It’s 10:20. Only the 7th inning. Two teams playing with nothing at stake, and #Royals have to challenge. #wtf #areyoukiddingme

— Shawn Ed (@iShibs21) September 8, 2018

The Bright Spot: If he plays his cards right and finishes September on a high note, it’s possible that Bonifacio will break .250 after looking lost as last year’s Easter eggs for wide parts of July and August.

The Nadir: Anyone who attempted to pitch for the Royals and was not named Eric Skoglund.

The Next Step: They’re planning to do this again tomorrow night, at 6:10 p.m. (CT) this time, because everybody plays 162 of these things for some reason. Jose Berrios, whose 6.65 ERA over the last five starts is not the performance of a man who was a deserving All-Star, will be opposed by Jorge Lopez, who has none of those qualifications, positive or negative.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

Gonsalves came into the season as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball according to both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline and had a really nice minor league season, posting a 2.76 ERA in 23 games and 120.2 innings with just 76 hits allowed. The big leagues have been a bit less kind to him as he’s allowed 19 hits and 10 walks in 10 innings while striking out just five. He’s a big guy, standing at 6’5”, but isn’t really a power arm with his changeup leading the way for him. His fastball is low-90s and his breaking stuff has a chance to be good someday. The control issues are curious and might just be a bit of nerves combined with maybe some fatigue as he’s now thrown 21 more innings than last season, though it’s not a career high for him, so who knows really? As a big leaguer, the sample is miniscule, but he hasn’t been able to get out lefties or righties with a .333/.429/.750 line allowed to lefties and .429/.545/.600 to righties. He had a reverse split in the minors this season, which is often a result of the changeup being the best pitch since they don’t throw it left on left as much.

Fillmyer just keeps sucking me back in. After he imploded against the White Sox a couple weeks ago and lost a six-run lead, I figured that was it. Then he went out and threw 13 innings in his last two starts with three runs allowed and a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Yes, one of those starts was against the Orioles, and yes there are still underlying issues with Fillmyer, but I’ll repeat what I’ve said a million times this year. Why not see what he is? He started against the Twins in Minnesota at the beginning of August and lasted just three innings during that weird rain delay game and was hit fairly hard and only had four swinging strikes in 70 pitches. He’ll need to be better in this one for the Royals to get a win, even if the offense supports him.

Saturday – 6:10 pm

I mentioned Berrios has been disappointing, which seems odd to say for a guy who is having a solid enough season, but after last year’s step forward, it really just seemed like another one was coming and it hasn’t. He has increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate, so that part is good, but he’s also been more homer prone this season, which has given back some of the gains from the better strikeout and walk numbers. Really he’s just giving up a little more hard contact in general, and for a pitcher with the stuff he has, you wouldn’t expect that. Still, his curve is outstanding and has been even better this year than last, and when his fastball is on, he can be nearly unhittable with those two pitches. And, like Gonslaves, his changeup is a plus pitch as well, so really you’re talking about a guy who should be an ace, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the breakout was just delayed a year and he’s incredible next season. He has a 4.99 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals, but a lot of that was damage done during his terrible rookie season and last year. This year, he’s 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings.

Again, the Orioles caveat applies here, but Lopez had the best start of his career his last time out, going seven innings and allowing just a run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks. He had 14 swinging strikes in 99 pitches, which is truly amazing, and very encouraging no matter who he was facing. I think his curve was talked up quite a bit, but his slider was insane last week with six whiffs out of 17 pitches and outs were recorded on all four put in play. If he can bring that slider and that curve to this game, he’ll be just fine against the Twins. Personally, I still have my doubts that he’s a starter in the long run, but please refer to Fillmyer, Heath regarding why not. In his career as a starter, he’s held opponents to a .220/.278/.320 line the first time through before that balloons to .413/.500/.543 the second time. The sample is tiny, but it’s a trend that isn’t promising. But again, let’s see if he can do it again against a team not as bad as the Orioles, but certainly not good.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

After back-to-back matching 5.07 ERAs for Gibson, he’s finally doing what he did in 2015 for the Twins, just in time for his final year of arbitration before free agency. The biggest difference is that he’s just getting more strikeouts and more swings and misses in general. How has he gotten there? His slider has always been a great swing and miss pitch, but it’s been even better this year, so that’s one. Another is that his curve has been outstanding for whiffs with a 47.3 percent whiff rate, compared to 36 percent last year. And with that, I think his changeup has played up too and he’s allowed a .114 average on it, compared to .271 last season. He still throws his sinker quite a bit to get those worm burners, but the swings and misses have made him a truly different pitcher. And the Royals have seen quite a bit of him over the years. This will be his 18^th start against Kansas City, and it seems like he’s almost always annoyingly good with a 3.40 ERA in 106 innings. This year has been more of the same. In 12.1 innings, he’s struck out 13 Royals, walked three and posted a 2.92 ERA. Alex Gordon has done well against him, and Hunter Dozier has two doubles in seven at bats against him, which isn’t a sample worth noting other than the fact that Dozier has been a doubles machine lately, so maybe he can carry that over.

Junis is on one now and looking like the guy we were so excited about in spring training and earlier this year. With seven two-hit, shutout innings against the Indians (with no walks, I might add), he’s padded his post-DL stats some more now having gone 52.1 innings in nine starts with 49 hits allowed, 53 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA. The six unearned runs still loom, but even adding those in, he’s still at just a 3.78 RA, which is perfectly acceptable. I’ll say again what I’ve said a few times since his DL stint as well. With just three home runs allowed, it maybe does lend some credence to the idea that his back was a bigger problem than we originally thought. He’s faced the Twins twice this year and once since coming off the disabled list (his first start off). He’s gone 10 innings, allowed four runs on 10 hits with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He was solid against them last year too, so maybe this is just a good matchup for him.

The Twins are looking to next season and maybe they’re just figuring out a way to get through the season with some of the Rays “opener” strategy or maybe they’re looking to next season, but either way, it’s at least interesting. Hopefully, Salvador Perez can come back for this series given his crazy numbers at Target Field. If he does, I say they win two of three. If not, I say they win two of three.

Orioles Vitals

Royals vs. Orioles

Offense

Pitching

Orioles Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:15 pm

I saw what the Orioles were doing when they signed Cashner to a relatively modest deal this winter, but I didn’t like the move. He seemed prime for regression given his ridiculously low strikeout rate and his too high for it walk rate. He’s struck out more this year, but still not enough and he’s just been a little less fortunate on batted balls, so he’s allowed more hits, more runners and more runs. Plus, his home runs are up slightly, and when you have zero room for regression, you can’t regress anywhere. Still, on the whole, he’s probably been their best starter left standing, though Alex Cobb has been great of late. Cashner has been brutal in August with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. He’s struck out 12 and walked 12 in 28.2 innings. That’s…well not good. There’s not really a scenario where Cashner truly excels, but he’s especially bad a third time through the order, which he’s left in for quite often. He allows a .336/.424/.543 line when he’s facing the lineup a third time. Given his repertoire, I feel like Adalberto Mondesi staying hot is a safe bet here.

Keller didn’t really have it in his last start against the Indians, but against that good team, he still gutted it out through five and allowed just two runs while striking out five. After a bit of a performance dip heading into the break, he’s made seven starts and averaged six innings per start since. What’s really encouraging, and we’ve talked about this before, is that he’s striking out 21 percent of batters faced and is walking just eight percent. Neither is elite or anything, but he does seem to be getting better. He’s given up a few more home runs, but he’s still at a reasonable level there as well, so he’s working his way out of an Andrew Cashner 2017-type season and into a conversation as being able to sustain this. Keller didn’t pitch against the Orioles in May, so this is his first time facing them.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

The last time the Royals saw Dylan Bundy, he faced seven batters and all seven scored. That was his third consecutive bad start after a quick start in his first five, and it hasn’t really gotten a whole lot better since. He did have a really good June, but since then he’s made nine starts with an ERA of 8.87 and allowed 16 home runs in 44.2 innings. He’s allowed 65 hits in that time! In those nine starts, he’s allowed at least five runs six times. It’s just been a rough go for Bundy. If there is a bright side for him, it’s that the season is almost over. Lefties have absolutely mauled him this year with a .316/.377/.550 line, so look for the Royals to load up in this one. The key against him (and all pitchers really but especially Bundy) is to get ahead in the count. When the hitter has the advantage, he allows a .336 average and .694 SLG. That’s crazy. And just to show how insane his start against the Royals was with four homers allowed in seven batters, here was the line – 1.000/1.000/3.400. That’s really amazing actually. Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez each have homers against him, but I’d look for some damage from the young guys like Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn and Brett Phillips in this one.

It seems like every time I’m about to write off Fillmyer, he performs well. He handled the Indians pretty well on Saturday night last weekend, giving up just a run on three hits in six innings. Maybe more encouraging than the numbers were 10 swings and misses, which ties his career high that he had set against the Tigers and White Sox previously. He threw a career-high 105 pitches, so two extra days of rest may not hurt him for this one. The Orioles could be a sneaky tough matchup for him because if his slider is hanging, they still have enough power to make him pay and get some quick runs against him. But if it’s working, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him set a new swinging strike career high.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

Hess has pretty steadily climbed the minor league ladder for the Orioles since he was drafted in 2014 and has shown a couple decent things in the big leagues in spite of the rough numbers. The home run has bitten him more than it did in AA last year or AAA this year, but he’s still allowing less than a hit per inning, which is nice to see from him. That said, there just isn’t enough there stuff-wise to be successful, especially in an organization like the Orioles. He throws a 92-93 MPH fastball, which isn’t really impressive these days and he throws it a lot. His slider is probably his best strikeout pitch, and it’s similar to Fillmyer in that when it’s good, he’s quite good, but when it’s not, look out. Like Cashner, he’s a guy you can wait out as he really starts to tire at about 50 pitches and then when you get even deeper, he gets in some big trouble. He hasn’t exceeded 100 pitches yet, but he did get to 99 in his best start of the year his last time out against the Blue Jays.

So far, Lopez hasn’t done anything to make me believe he isn’t a reliever, but, again, this is the time to find out. His first time through the order in three starts, he’s allowed a .269 average and two runs. He’s walked just one in that time. His second and third time through, he’s allowed nine runs in three games and walked seven while striking out six. There’s no shame in being a reliever, but I’m pretty confident that’s what he is. That said, the Orioles do their share of flailing at the plate and Lopez has a great curveball when he’s on, so I would say this is an opportunity for him to gain some confidence if he can get that pitch working and recover from his rough outing against the Indians on Sunday.

I’d have to care to look more, but I have to assume this is the first time the Royals have had back to back weekends with all three starters coming into the game with a season ERA under 5 since like April or so. Maybe I’m wrong. It doesn’t matter. This is going to be a slap fight all weekend, but I think the Royals come out victorious in two of three given how bad the Orioles are and how bad they are especially on the road. Nothing would really surprise me this weekend other than good baseball.

Indians Vitals

Royals vs. Indians

Offense

Pitching

Indians Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:15 pm

Clevinger may have been a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s settled in nicely as a very good rotation option for the Indians. His stuff is fantastic when he’s on and he is extremely difficult to square up with just a 32.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 5.5 percent barrel rate. He gets swings and misses on every one of his pitches, which is impressive. His curve is his best swing and miss pitch, but he doesn’t throw it that often. His slider is nasty and it’s not far behind. He also has a 93-94 MPH fastball and a good changeup, so he can beat you a lot of ways. If you’re looking for a weakness, his delivery makes him tough on righties but lefties pick him up okay with a .250/.333/.412 line against him. Other than that, he’s just been really good. He even doesn’t struggle a third or fourth time through the order with opponents putting up similar lines to the first two times through against him. He’s another Indians big league development success story.

Keller passed the 100 inning mark during his last start and looks to be holding strong for the Royals, and maybe even getting better. Since the break, he’s thrown 37 innings and struck out 31 while walking 13 and allowing 35 hits. The home runs are up a bit, but they’re still at a very manageable level. His 3.65 ERA seems awfully sustainable. And he manages the running game well with just one stolen base allowed in five attempts. Some of that is Salvy behind the plate, but some of that is Keller. His last time out against the White Sox was a big success because it was just the second time as a starter that he didn’t walk a batter. I don’t know yet that Keller can be a big league starter long term, but these six starts since the break give me a great deal of hope. He hasn’t started against the Indians yet, but he did go three innings against them to hold them down in the big 10-9 comeback win the Royals had back in May. He also had another 1.1 scoreless against them in April, so he’s pitched well in a limited sample.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

Kluber isn’t the best pitcher in the game, but he’s definitely in the conversation and even in a time of struggle, he’s posted a 3.74 ERA in his last 74.2 innings. If that’s struggling, I think any pitcher in the world will take that. He’s just had a couple hiccups recently that we aren’t used to seeing from him. The Cardinals knocked him around in late June and he didn’t get out of the second and then the Yankees and Pirates hit him hard in back to back starts. Since then, he’s been a bit better but not quite vintage Kluber. He has thrown nearly 1,100 innings over the last five years so it’s possible that’s impacting him. He’s still excellent, so I guess it doesn’t matter much. He has been much better at home than on the road with a 3.35 ERA away from Progressive Field and a 2.24 ERA there. And I guess going after the first pitch is a decent idea. At bats that have ended after just one pitch has gone the way of the hitter big time with a .382/.390/.684 line. Of course, if you’re going to go after it, you better be prepared to be down 0-1. And when he’s ahead in the count, opponents are hitting .145 with a .208 SLG, so yeah.

Fillmyer had a bad start against the White Sox his last time that is bad enough statistically with six runs allowed on seven hits in three innings with three homers, but it’s even worse when you remember that he was given a 6-0 lead after two and couldn’t escape the fourth. His slider can be really good at times, but he’s a bit like Jakob Junis in that if it’s not working, he’s not working. I think Junis has more outside the slider, though, which is why he has a much better chance to stick in the big leagues than Fillmyer. He’s now allowed 10 runs on 12 hits in his last two starts spanning just eight innings. His ERA has jumped from 3.13 after his seven shutout innings against the Cubs to 4.57 now. My guess is he’s back in the bullpen soon. Interestingly enough, he also has three shutout innings in relief against Cleveland this year, so maybe he can build on that and get back on track.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

Sorry, but I do think the Royals have a shot against Bieber. I guess it’s that you just Never Say Never. At least that’s what my Friends tell me about the Indians righty with impeccable control and the ability to be a Heartbreaker on the mound with a 93 MPH fastball he throws about 58 percent of the time, a ridiculous slider and a curve that can really Hold Tight. The Royals did manage to hit him decently with four runs on nine hits in six innings back in early July and he only struck out two, which remains his season low. Don’t be a Baby, Indians fans. I’m not throwing Cold Water on your young pitcher. All That Matters is that he gets the job done and he really has this season. You really get The Feeling that he’s going to be a solid pitcher for quite some time.

The second start for Lopez was much better than the first, but it didn’t make me feel any more like he can be a big league starter. Yes, I’m a bit biased because I haven’t believed he’d be a big league starter even from his time in the Brewers organization, but that just means I need to be proven even more than maybe some others. Five innings of one-run ball is fine, but he needed 95 pitches to get through it and maybe I’m wrong, but I thought his stuff took a dive after about his 70^th pitch. He deserves to get starts the rest of the season because what does it matter, so we’ll see if things continue to get better, but at this point, he’s averaged 19 pitches per inning as a starter and that just won’t cut it long term, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can make strides.

I mean, I suppose the Royals could win a game. It’s not like Bieber is unbeatable and Clevinger is good but not elite or anything. That means they’ll probably beat Kluber because nothing makes any sense. Fine, I’ll do it. I’m going to be bold. I think the Royals take one of three.

White Sox Vitals

Royals vs. White Sox

Offense

Pitching

White Sox Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

After two years of big-time decline, Shields may have put himself on a track to find himself a big league deal next season if he so chooses. He’s not good, but he’s basically been what people thought Jason Hammel would be for the Royals, doing enough to keep the team in games and giving some pretty valuable innings to a rotation. He still walks too many, but with the home runs down, he’s definitely a usable part of a rotation. He’s not the guy a team will trade multiple top prospects for anymore, but that’s okay. He’s 36 now. A big key against Shields is simply to find a way on base. With the bases empty, he’s allowed a .613 OPS with 79 strikeouts and 29 walks in 417 plate appearances. With runners on, that jumps to a .909 OPS and 43 strikeouts with 31 walks in 253 plate appearances. Something about the stretch makes his command disappear and lets the opposition get it started against him. Ryan O’Hearn and Brett Phillips both homered against him earlier this month and Lucas Duda has a 1.021 career OPS against him in 18 plate appearances, so they should all definitely be in the lineup.

Junis has provided quite the rollercoaster this season for me and Royals fans in general. Early in the year, it looked like he might actually get to his ceiling of a number three starter. He was striking out guys, limiting walks and giving quality innings. Then from May 28^th to July 2^nd, he went 0-7 with a 7.59 ERA and allowed 13 homers in 40.1 innings and it was fair to question if he was even going to be a big leaguer long term. Then he went on the DL with a back injury and since then, he’s been much better. In five starts, he’s thrown 25.1 innings with 30 strikeouts and nine walks. He’s throwing too many pitches, but he’s only allowed two home runs in that time. Now, he has allowed four unearned runs, so the ERA is a little shinier than he’s actually pitched, but the strikeouts and lack of homers have me confident again. Junis was a little shaky against the White Sox earlier this month in a game that he had a 10-1 lead, so I’m anxious to see how he fares in this one.

Saturday – 7:10 pm

There was a narrative for a bit that Covey had figured a lot of things out and had a chance to be a solid big league pitcher. And yet, here he sits with numbers pretty similar to last season when he was a disaster as a Rule 5 pick for the White Sox. He’s far too hittable and doesn’t strike out nearly enough while walking way too many. The big difference this season is that he’s giving up a home run every nine innings or so compared to 2.6 per nine. He threw six shutout innings against Boston on June 8^th to lower his ERA to 2.22. Since then? He’s made 11 starts and gone 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA with 31 strikeouts and 25 walks in 53.1 innings. He’s just not good. The stuff looks better than it is, which gives him the opportunity to have a good game here and there, but yeah, he’s not a big leaguer, not at this point anyway.

Keller, on the other hand, has shown he is definitely a big leaguer, though there are still questions about his role in spite of his 3.82 ERA over 73 innings as a starter. On one hand, I have a hard time seeing a guy with just 49 strikeouts and 33 walks in that time succeeding. On the other hand, there are other ways to find success, even in a world where strikeouts are up everywhere. He just doesn’t get hit hard at all with his hard hit rate below the league average and his barrels allowed a fair amount below the league average. All those ground balls in an era where teams have a pretty good idea where their opponents are going to hit them have to help him. I believe the stuff is there to increase swings and misses, so we’ll see how he develops. And hey, pitching against the White Sox doesn’t hurt. He got 13 swings and misses against them earlier this month after they had lit him up in his previous start in Chicago.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

I’ve said this before, but Lopez doesn’t make sense. A guy with his stuff shouldn’t have a strikeout rate of 16.1 percent. He walks too many too, which is sort of a common issue among White Sox starters, I guess. Unlike Keller, Lopez doesn’t get many grounders, allows more hard contact than league average and more barrels than the league average. It’s not a great combination. I think I said this the last time these two teams matched up, but he’d probably do well to throw his fastball less even though it feels like it should be a dominant pitch. His slider and changeup are both producing a ton of swings and misses while his four-seamer just doesn’t get the whiffs and he can’t control it very well. He’s performed pretty well against the Royals in his career with a 3.55 ERA in six starts, though six of the 22 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. Somehow (okay not somehow, it’s the Royals), he’s walked just five in 39.1 innings against KC.

Fillmyer had a tough go of it against the Blue Jays his last time out, walking five and striking out just three in five innings. It was a tight zone, and that doesn’t bode well for him at all, but it continued a trend of some similar issues that Keller has. The difference, and maybe this is just because he hasn’t had the opportunity to do it, is that Keller has had a few outings where he’s gotten the whiffs and Fillmyer just hasn’t yet. He does limit hard contact like Keller does and while he doesn’t get nearly as many ground balls, he does get his fair share. Basically, it comes down to whether or not his slider is working. He’s a bit of a combination of the previous two pitchers in this series in that his slider is his best pitch (like Junis) and he has a similar game plan to Keller. If those two succeed before him, he has a chance to follow suit. But his slider has to be working because if it’s not, the White Sox have enough power and enough patience to really make him pay.

Like the Blue Jays series, I’m expecting some uninspired baseball from both teams, but even with the way this season has gone, I still think the Royals are better than the White Sox and will take two of three.