The Royals are in a position where they have a hard time fitting on the trade market. They’re not on the brink of a teardown. That’s already happened. They’re not on the brink of winning. That’s yet to come. They’re kind of figuring out what they have in their young players right now and are a year away at a minimum from supplementing that young group of players they have. Even so, that doesn’t mean they can’t play a key role this week. Plus, with all the GMs in one place, it’s easy to find rumors out there because they and the agents tend to be so easily accessible.

Who You’ll Hear About

There aren’t many players the Royals are going to shop this winter, but you never know when the right offer might come along. And aside from the idea that everyone is available for the right price, these are the players (in alphabetical order) who you’re most likely to see a rumor about this week.

Jorge Bonifacio - The Royals can’t be thrilled with Bonifacio after his 2018 season. He was decent offensively as a rookie, and I still think he got a raw deal with the Melky Cabrera acquisition. He came to camp in great shape and was the second best player on the field, but then got popped for PEDs. Maybe he was in such great shape because of them and that’s why he was playing so well too, but it was a big blow. Now the Royals have a bit of a logjam after they acquired both Brian Goodwin and Brett Phillips. Between Bonifacio and Soler, the Royals might very well just have too many players and they might be interested in jettisoning the one who they’re disappointed in. It’d be selling low if you believe there’s more to Boni, but a team like the Braves might be interested in him as they look to fill their RF spot via trade this winter. They’re not getting much back for him, but the roster space might be worth it. Personally, I’d hold on to him to see if he can rebound, but I think I like Boni more than most.

Danny Duffy - Speaking of selling low, the ship has likely sailed on the Royals trading Duffy, if that ship was ever even at the dock. A lot of people were clamoring for the Royals to move him last year, and I get why they didn’t. Even though he had a decent season, it had ended with another elbow injury and a legal issue, which probably negated his value. Given his standing with the team and in the community, I believe the Royals were right to not sell for pennies on the dollar. If he rebuilt his value with a good and healthy season, sure, explore trade possibilities this winter. With three years left on his deal, he’s still valuable. Unfortunately, he wasn’t really good or healthy this season, so they’re not moving him, but his name will likely be mentioned at least a few times.

Ian Kennedy - If the Royals could get out from under some of his deal, I’m sure they’d be ecstatic. It’s not happening, but he’s getting closer to not being completely impossible to move due to salary. He has $33 million left over the next two years, so the Royals would have to pay down probably two-thirds of that at this point, but if he pitches as he did after coming off the DL (25 IP, 18 K, 6 BB, 2.88 ERA, 2 HR allowed), maybe a team will get desperate in June or July and the Royals will only have to pay like 40 percent of what’s left. There will almost certainly be no deal this week or this offseason for Kennedy, but I bet his name gets out there, mostly by the Royals doing.

Whit Merrifield - Whit is the best trade chip the Royals have and the guy they honestly probably should move. But unless some team gets really stupid (and they might), it’s not happening either. With four years of team control left and a continuously improving bat and overall game, Merrifield is very valuable. He’s also about to 30 and the aging curve isn’t what it was during the steroid era. I’m personally torn here because I love Merrifield and would love to see him with the Royals for as long as possible. His two best positions, second base and center field, both have young solutions in the organization who are both at least close to ready. The Royals are likely going to want a top 30 prospect, top 75 prospect and two more for Whit. They’d likely get offered a top 50-60 prospect and two more, with one maybe being in the back of the top 100. I don’t think they’d jump at that, but you’ll probably hear about it starting this week.

Salvador Perez - They’re not moving Perez. That won’t stop him from being in rumors. Salvy is a free agent after the 2021 season, though I don’t see him going anywhere unless something happens in the next three seasons. Catchers across baseball hit .233/.304/.374, so even though Salvy is OBP-challenged, his bat is a breath of fresh air. His contract isn’t nearly as friendly as people make it out to be, but he’d have some really good value in a deal.

Jorge Soler - I’ve long thought the Royals should move Soler at the first chance they get, and it’s not because I don’t like him. I think he has the best chance to be a middle of the order masher of anyone in the organization right now. He smokes the ball, works walk and his prodigious power. We saw glimpses of it this year before the broken foot ended his season. But that’s just it. It’s always something. Either he’s hurt or he’s in a massive slump or it’s both. The times it’s all clicked for him have been few and far between, but the talent is so clearly there that he has value, especially considering he’s under a very reasonable contract and has three more years of team control. If I had to bet on a move being made from one of these six players, I’d bet on one of Soler or Bonifacio being traded. Soler might bring back a reliever the team actually covets, so he might be the better bet to go if teams are convinced he’ll be healthy.

If they make a trade from the big league level, the odds are that they’ll be targeting either a prospect who is about a million years away or a reliever. It’s so hard to say who they might look to get on that market, but the fact is that they are going to be looking for relief help this offseason and want to pay as little as possible. Of course, the good relievers who aren’t expensive and have team control are going to cost quite a bit in terms of trade equity, so I’m not sure anything will get it done, but it’s who they’ll look toward.

My guess is it’ll be all quiet for the Royals for most of the offseason. It’s easy to predict that. But you never know. The GM meetings are a great opportunity to lay the groundwork for something down the road, so we may not end up seeing the fruits of this week until July or even later. And hey, I love rumor season, so the GMs all in one place with agents not too far behind definitely works for me.

I know that probably sounds pretty snarky and mean-spirited, but it’s true: if the Royals took the team that finished the season, lock stock and barrel, into the spring of 2019, they would be fine. Fine. Not world beaters, division champs or much better than slightly below .500, but perfectly serviceable, with a young player, at least league-average and possibly better, at almost every lineup spot and rotation that wouldn’t immediately send an unsuspecting bystander into a sudden spasm of vomit. Given the trash fire that was the 2018 Kansas City Royals from April to June, that’s about as ringing an endorsement as you’re likely to find.

The Royals wouldn’t pass up a Manny Machado, Bryce Harper or (almost sure to be opting out) Clayton Kershaw; that’s stupid, and Dayton Moore might be many things but stupid is not one of them. They just won’t pony up the numbers, rumored to be astronomical in some cases, that might be required for a player of that trio’s caliber signature. They’ll buy low, look to extract value and flip an asset in decline (a player they don’t need, likely on a short deal) for an asset on the rise (a young prospect, international bonus slots, etc.). They struck at the right moment with Jon Jay last year and there’s every reason to go back to that well for a team that’s two quality starters, an entire bullpen and at least one impact bat away from contention.

With this in mind, I’d like to take this opportunity for prime offseason content farming and look at some of the names the Royals should be dialing up once free agency opens (or right now, none of these guys are still playing and breaking the rules is a part of doing business in baseball).

Versatile Infield Bat That Couldn’t Hit for Beans a Year Ago

Logan Forsythe, Marwin Gonzalez, Sean Rodriguez, Luis Valbuena

Before you send that tweet, just know that I know that most of these guys were varying states of dog crap last year. Just super-aware on that end.

The argument against both Rodriguez and Valbuena is the same argument anyone with a mind makes against bringing back Alcides Escobar: there are holes in their swings you could drive an actual truck through. Valbuena has been a sub-.200 hitter the last two seasons and Rodriguez hasn’t been the same since a car crash that tore up his shoulder in February 2017. Gonzalez was the weak link for the Astros, Forsythe thought so highly of that the Dodgers traded him for Brian Dozier and whatever Dr. Frankenstein device that was required to resurrect his corpse.

Their presence isn’t about finding someone to shore up first, or third, or wherever. It’s about making sure that Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn—two guys who exceeded many expectations in their first real extended run last year—don’t grow complacent, to challenge and push them in camp and who knows, maybe even contribute. All four can play multiple positions. In a time where bullpens keep expanding, teams can’t afford many backups who aren’t multidimensional. These guys fit that bill, warts and all.

C’mon, I gave you Lucas Duda last year, and he yielded… something. Hit the right guy in the right rebound campaign and reap some trade deadline benefits!

(Honestly, when I put it like that, it’s just so easy I don’t know why these dopes need it spelled out for them.)

Back-end starting pitcher

Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Matt Harvey, Tyson Ross, Josh Tomlin

Just the thought of Bartolo in my life every five days has plastered a big old smile on my face. May Big Sexy pitch forever.

Anyway, three spots in the rotation are set, or seem to be, heading into spring training: Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller should be the top three in some order, with a host of people—Ian Kennedy, Jorge Lopez, Heath Fillmyer, Erik Skoglund, Nathan Karns, etc.—looming as potential candidates for the last two slots unless Ned Yost embraces the opener (as always, don’t rule anything out with Ned). Kennedy we’ve covered here and elsewhere—I think he’d be better served sliding into a relief role at this stage in his career. Karns can’t stay healthy. Skoglund and Fillmyer look great one day and terrible the next. Lopez looked great two days—Sept. 2 and Sept. 9, against Baltimore and Minnesota (combined losses: 199)—and absolutely rancid in most of the rest.

There’s some room for improvement, or if not that, then a little bit of consistency.

Big Sexy is a gate and television attraction; if he’s pitching, I’m watching and if he isn’t awful, well that’s just dandy. Tomlin and Fister are far removed from their respective apexes, but both have upside still—Fister spent two seasons pitching in Texas and Boston (not exactly kind to pitchers) and Tomlin was just surpassed by better, healthier, (FILL IN THE BLANK) pitchers in Cleveland despite remaining one of baseball’s most accurate strike-throwers.

The upside plays here are Harvey and Ross. Would Harvey, given anything resembling a choice, come to Kansas City? Unclear. Is there enough potential to make a Hail Mary offer and take a flier on a guy who was considered to be a linchpin of one of the best young rotations in MLB all of (checks notes) two-and-a-half years ago? Heck yeah buddy, heck yeah.

I can’t quit Tyson Ross and I don’t want to. He’s a power pitcher, but he’s become essentially a two-pitch guy (over 70 percent fastball-slider the last two seasons); he’s got other things in the arsenal (sinker, cutter, change) he could mix in if, you know, Cal Eldred is up for a challenge. Dadgummit, Tyson Ross is gonna be heard from on a contender at some point and there’s no reason that contender couldn’t buy him from the Royals for a back-end top-30 prospect next July.

Relievers

Randall Delgado, Aaron Loup, Adam Ottavino, Oliver Perez, Drew Storen, Jonny Venters, Justin Wilson

Elmore Leonard villain Tim Hill and Wily Peralta made me feel something resembling comfort last year. Kevin McCarthy and Brian Flynn had moments. As mentioned, Kennedy belongs here. If Brandon Maurer is offered arbitration, I will consider it nothing short of a declaration of war on my sanity.

[Hmmm, this is already over 1,000 words.]

Keep Hill, Peralta, Kennedy and McCarthy, non-tender Flynn in hopes of bringing him back on a minor league deal with a spring training invite (he had moments, but not that many) and then go for high-end reclamation projects (Delgado, Storen, Venters) at reduced cost but with potential for a high yield. Wilson, Perez and Ottavino should have offers from contenders, based on recent success. Loup is a guy, albeit one who has gotten major-league hitters out for a number of years in a row. Delgado, Storen and Venters could actually help.

Tl;dr: Give me Forsythe, Bartolo, Ross, Delgado, Storen and Venters. I swear, that plus what the Royals bring back would win at least 72 games next year. I’M NOT CRAZY.

You know, I think what jumpstarted the rebuild is we quit talking about the rebuild. I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that it’s OK to lose baseball games. It’s not… I think that was a big part of it. We just made a decision we were going to quit talking about this.

Interesting. And a little goofy. A winning culture and, by subset, a positive mindset are clearly important to Moore. If he believes that not talking about a rebuild was what led to a better second half, that’s his prerogative. But facts are facts and the 2018 season was the first year of a rebuild. Not talking about it doesn’t magically make said rebuild go any faster or disappear altogether. 

Rebuild. Rebuild. Rebuild. There. I wrote it. I’ll write it again.

The truth was, Moore didn’t think his team was going to be 100-loss bad last summer. The overall results left him dissatisfied, but the Royals improved second half left him encouraged.

I think for 2019, I’m more encouraged than I was perhaps at the beginning of 2018… I really felt that 2019 would perhaps be a much more challenging year for us from a won-loss standpoint, not 2018. I didn’t see 100 in the 2018 season. I just didn’t. I felt this team was much better than that. 

I’ve heard that Moore has expressed his thoughts that 2019 would be the real difficult year in the rebuild. Sorry. A difficult year in the process to get back to the postseason. I’m not sure why he necessarily targeted 2019. Truthfully, last season and each of the next two or three look to be lean. The Process can be accelerated through savvy drafting and smart international scouting, two things Moore mentioned, but the Royals lost a lot of talent and that makes the climb back all the more challenging.

Moore issued a bit of a mea culpa when it comes to the current state of the team.

I think one of our frustrations and one of my failures, and many failures truthfully, is the fact that we are where we are. So the focus of this next era of Royals baseball, we want to put together a winning team and then win for a long time. I’m not saying we’ll make the playoffs every year, but we want to play winning baseball. Championship caliber baseball. I like the fact that we played that way in the second half, but we want to win more consistently.

It’s a goal we can all get behind.

Of course the not-rebuild still means there is a lot of focus on the minor leagues. The best system in the history of whatever was used to launch the franchise to back to back pennants. That meant the minors need a little extra TLC to get it back to where it once was. That remains a goal and Moore is pleased with the progress that was made during the year.

It’s a lot better now (the minor league system) than it was at the beginning of the season. It’s hard necessarily to quantify that, but I like the fact that we have a lot more depth with pitching than we did at the beginning of the year obviously with the draft picks, the trades that we made as well… Internationally, I think we’re doing much, much better. I’m excited about our commitment to the Eastern Rim. I think we’re positioned really well to make sure our farm system is rebuilt to a level that is acceptable and that can produce championship, winning caliber players. 

I feel really good about where we are. We’re not where we want to be. We’re going to need to get a lot better if we’re going to play in postseason, but I think the foundation is here for us to go forward.

Obviously, most of that talent is in the low minors. Moore says not to expect them to fast-track players. 

I think it’s going to be really important we stay even more patient. I think we were probably a little too aggressive the first time around with maybe pushing players. Not changing the expectations, because the expectations as we know is what drives results. And so our expectations are always going to be very, very high for our players. 

So for example, we don’t like to see a lot of strikeouts with our players at the minor league level. We don’t want to see high strikeouts for guys we think are going to be on base guys and hit in the middle of the order and play the type of style we need to play in order to win in our ballpark. And so we may not be as aggressive with promoting them in the minor leagues until they cut their strikeout rates by 10 or 15 percent let’s say. Don’t hold me to that, but that’s just an example. 

I dig this because it’s always valuable when you get an on the record quote about a detail of organizational philosophy. Of course, we’ve known all along the Royals value contact. It’s just fascinating to hear Moore talk in some depth about this. Sorry, fans of Frank Schwindel. He cut his strikeout rate by four percent last year (from 16.7 percent to 12.8 percent) and still couldn’t get the call to The Show.

Moore specifically named Seuly Matias (34.8 percent strikeout rate last year in Single-A Lexington), Nick Pratto (27.9 percent) and MJ Melendez (30.3 percent) as players who they want to see cut their whiff rate. 

If they’re going to strike out, the Royals want to make damn sure the players they have are athletes who like to compete and are good teammates. Again, we’ve heard this before from Moore. It’s important to him and will guide him and his staff going forward. Moore admitted that they have to have the talent to play baseball as well. Duh. Let’s hope he can find players who fit this magical combination.

At least Ned Yost will be returning. Moore is pleased because of the harmony they share. Moore noted they both hold the same beliefs on how you build a team, maintain an organization and the importance of the things it takes to win.

I’m excited Ned is going to be back for the 2019 season. We’ve always just left it kind of year to year since we won the World Series just because it takes so much commitment and energy to go through the major league season.

As I’ve written before, this makes sense. Yost has managed for a long time and has accomplished everything one would hope to accomplish as a big league manager. He has nothing left to prove and managing a club that is not-rebuilding can become a bit of a chore. You could see it wear on him in the middle part of the year, but the improved second half provided Yost with a bit of positive energy. He’s back and everyone has the flexibility that is inherent in a short-term commitment. It’s a happy front office and manager.

For the most part, it sounds like Yost will be managing most of the same crew that closed out the 2018 season. 

I feel like there won’t be a lot of turnover… A lot of change… A lot of adding to that group. We’re prepared to go forward with them.

Moore mentioned two points of emphasis going forward. One, they need to build an elite farm system. And two, they need to get the major league payroll under control so the Royals are in a better position in 2020 and ’21 and beyond. He says everything will be viewed through those two objectives.

In other words, don’t expect the Royals to make any kind of interesting moves this winter. With over $67 million committed to five players and a rumored projected payroll set somewhere around $90 million (no one at the press conference asked Moore about next year’s payroll, which is really poor form) the organization will go bargain hunting when adding to the roster. The bullpen is an obvious area of need and Moore mentioned they would look into some reclamation projects. They’ve had success in the past with Ryan Madson and Joe Blanton. The Royals will look for another arm or two with some rebound potential.

And when it comes to the relief corps, Moore wouldn’t dismiss the idea of moving starters Danny Duffy or Ian Kennedy to the bullpen. Of course, Duffy has done it before. Kennedy has only made two appearances in relief in his career. Both are interesting candidates, but rotation depth figures to once again be rather thin. I’d wager they will open the year as starters. I won’t wager that they will still be in the rotation when next September rolls around.

It was a freewheeling conversation, lasting over 50 minutes and touched on topics such as analytics and how the Royals mesh the data with scouting, the importance of the team in the community and, as you’ve probably heard, Luke Heimlich. I’m not sure why the Heimlich question came up again, but Moore once again stated his belief in Heimlich as a person and a ballplayer. Why Moore feels the need to answer that question, only he can say. The smart move would be to deflect. Heimlich isn’t in the organization, after all. After the firestorm that kicked up last summer after the draft, not saying anything would have been the smart thing to do.

And now the winter is truly upon us in Kansas City. Half of the World Series is set. The GM meetings are next month. The winter meetings are about eight weeks away. Pitchers and catchers report in four months. Thanks for spending the season with us at BP Kansas City. It’s an honor when you make us part of your daily Royals routine.

Keep clicking. We’ll keep writing.

• Speaking of managers, Dayton Moore announced prior to the final game of the season that Ned Yost would be back for the 2019 season. I’m sure some people won’t like that, but whatever. I think it’s a prudent move, especially if the next manager truly is in the organization right now, which I believe to be true. The 2019 Royals, no matter what you’re hoping for after that strong finish, are not likely to be good, but there is a brighter future ahead than what anyone likely saw at this time last year when there was just so much uncertainty around the team. Yost staying to absorb some of those losses and to help get the initial growing pains out of the way makes a lot of sense for the Royals and shows that Yost has the best interest of his successor in mind. That’s another reason why I believe the manager is in house. It sure seems like Yost cares enough about whoever’s fate. Personally, I think Pedro Grifol is the guy. I know a lot have speculated Dale Sveum and Vance Wilson, and I can’t argue with them, but I’ve heard whispers too often that Grifol is the next man in charge for me to shy away from making that prediction now (and on Twitter a few days ago, I guess I’m pretty transparent). And I think it’d be a good fit as he’s bilingual and mixes the analytics with the scouting extremely well. He seems to have a good relationship with Moore and the team obviously knows him well. Plus, it’s pretty clear the Royals, and maybe Yost specifically, have fought to keep him around even when he lost his job as hitting coach. Take it for what it’s worth. That’s my two cents.
• The sample is small for everything Adalberto Mondesi did in 2018, but the trend is somewhat interesting to me. There’s been some talk on the interwebs about how he’s laying off pitches better than before and all that, and this is just an extension of that. Prior to the break, he hit .250/.270/.444, which showed good power, but not nearly enough in the way of getting on base to show off his wheels. And he had a .306 BABIP, so without diving too deep into the back end numbers, he wasn’t especially unlucky. After walking twice in 74 plate appearances before the break, he walked nine times in 217 after. No, that’s still not good. But going from a 2.7 percent rate to a 4.2 percent rate is noteworthy to me. But even moreso, he began coming on strong on August 25th when he really started playing basically every day, and in his final 30 games, he walked seven times in 135 plate appearances. Nope, still not special, but 5.2 percent is much, much closer to acceptable. He hit .312/.351/.624 in that time with 10 home runs and 16 steals and a .354 BABIP, which honestly isn’t outrageous given his speed. He’s never going to walk a ton, but with his pop and his ability to add extra bases after the fact, he doesn’t need to have a 10 percent walk rate to be a star (though it’d be nice). I think he’s on the right track. I’m curious to see how things go in 2019, especially if he doesn’t get off to a hot start, but he’s one of the most exciting storylines of 2019.
• I’ve thought a lot about how pitching and roles are changing in baseball thanks in large part to the Rays sort of having to go on the fly with their opener strategy. And I know I’ve talked a little bit about how the Royals might go about that. As it stands right now, making the silly assumption of health, the Royals have four guys who will enter the season in the rotation – Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Brad Keller and Ian Kennedy – and then have a fifth starter spot that’ll be open for some competition among Jorge Lopez, Heath Fillmyer, Trevor Oaks, Scott Barlow and maybe even a couple other guys like Foster Griffin or Scott Blewett if they’re added to the roster. So the Royals aren’t likely to be too innovative given what they have, but they could really benefit from using the opener for a couple of their pitchers. Junis stands out to me as a guy who would really benefit from getting to start his day with the fifth or sixth place hitter and only face the top four or five twice in a game. His third time through the order penalty isn’t crazy stiff, but his .306/.353/.529 is bad enough that it’s worth him not having to get there. Keller and Duffy didn’t really have any noteworthy third time through the order splits (in fact Keller still held opponents below a .700 OPS the third time), but Ian Kennedy struggled actually the second time through the order last season, and maybe if the hitters getting a second look at him are the 6-7-8 hitters and in the fifth or sixth inning, that would be helpful to him. It seems unlikely like I said, but I could see Richard Lovelady, Jerry Vasto, Tim Hill, Scott Barlow and Jorge Lopez all as guys who could be really good in that opening role. The lefties for their ability to get through a lefty heavy top of the order and the righties as guys who might be better in two or three inning stints. I imagine that time will come for the Royals once Yost leaves, but he’s surprised us before, so you never know.
• Someone mentioned on Twitter that it would be interesting to see what the Royals have actually lost in the Rule 5 draft in response to my article about what the Royals have gained over the years. Not surprisingly, the answer is that they haven’t lost much. Best I can tell, they’ve lost 15 players over the years with 11 of them seeing big league team. Such great names as Aurelio Monteagudo, Dick Colpaert and Ryan Baerlocher adorn the list of those gone to other teams, and the best they’ve lost is probably Victor Santos who went to the Pirates in the 2005 draft, but that was after five years in the big leagues posting a 4.99 ERA in 423 innings. So I guess he wasn’t really the best after the draft, but he was the best overall, I suppose. Rodney Myers was taken in that same draft by the Cubs and he actually put together some big league seasons, so that’s a plus for him. I guess the moral of this story is that the Royals have certainly gotten way more than they’ve given in the Rule 5 draft throughout their history and that’s a pretty good thing.

And they’ve been this underwhelming even while becoming the first team ever to have four pitchers reach the 200 strikeout mark. Their top four starters are top notch, but a struggling bullpen has led to some issues. The potential is there for true greatness with Brad Hand, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, but it just hasn’t been there due to both injuries and poor performance. It’s worth noting that these four games will be tune-up games for the Indians, so their starters aren’t likely to go deep into games, though I guess you never know.

Indians Vitals

Royals vs. Indians

Offense

Pitching

Indians Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 7:15 pm

This was pretty much inevitable for Tomlin at some point and the fact that it has held off this long says a lot about him. He doesn’t have good stuff and spends so much time in the strike zone, so eventually he was going to bitten by the long ball more than he had before and this season he’s allowed 24 homers in just 65.2 innings, a total that might make Chris Young blush (sorry, Chris). He still has phenomenal control, but he’s just not missing nearly enough bats and he’s getting hit awfully hard with a barrel rate of 11 percent, nearly double the MLB average. It’s bad. He’s been in and out of the rotation in September, so he’s only a few days removed from throwing 76 pitches in a game, which means if they decide to go awhile with him, he can probably do it. But that said, do you really want him to? He’s allowed a .365/.412/.738 line to lefties while Ryan O’Hearn has absolutely mauled righties. If you’re picking up what I’m putting down and you play daily fantasy, you’re welcome. Of course if you didn’t already know that, you probably shouldn’t be wasting your money.

Sparkman will get his third career start in place of Jorge Lopez who was shut down after his rib injury and bad start his last time out. I do believe Sparkman can be a worthwhile reliever and am doubtful of him long-term in the rotation, though, so I guess it’s similar to a Lopez start. He relieved Lopez in his last outing, throwing 55 pitches over four innings and generally being okay, though the lack of swings and misses has me concerned about his future in any role. Still, it’s nice to see the mid-90s fastball and you’d think a secondary pitch could emerge that we just haven’t seen yet from him in the big leagues. This will be his first time going against Cleveland, so it’ll be a nice test for him even if he does only get bits and pieces of the regular lineup.

Friday – 7:15 pm

I feel like a lot of people are surprised at the season Clevinger is having, but if you watched him last year, you shouldn’t be. The stuff plays, and now that he’s got his walk rate under control, it plays even better. He’s deceptive too, which makes him incredibly difficult to hit. So while it’s surprising that he’s gotten to this point, I don’t think it is based on last season. He’s also been hit harder by lefties than righties, though not to the extent of Tomlin. That said, 13 of the 21 homers he’s allowed have been to lefties and 33 of the 58 extra base hits. He’s had some first inning struggles, allowing six home runs and 17 runs in his 31 starts, and the Royals know all about that having scored three in the first against him a few weeks ago at home before getting shut down by him the rest of the way. Including that start, he’s faced the Royals four times this year and gone 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA with just two home runs allowed (to Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez). So my guess here is that the Royals will be happy if they do treat this as a shorter tune-up.

If we’re being honest, I’d have never guessed that Kennedy has thrown more than 100 innings this season. I actually forgot he existed while he was on the disabled list. All that said, it’s hard to argue with the results in his three starts since he’s been back. He’s gone 19 innings, allowed 17 hits, six runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and five walks and posted a 1.89 ERA. He’s generally actually been really good. Of course, he’s been facing teams with nothing to play for but the offseason, but still, it’s better to be good in your only sample than bad. He’s faced Cleveland once this year and was outstanding, going six shutout innings and striking out eight to pick up his first win of the season. It was roughly four degrees that day, so that helped, but again, good results are better than bad.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

Kluber probably isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he definitely belongs in the conversation as he currently leads the American League in innings pitched and has some excellent results. For him, a mid-season funk of sorts probably cost him the award. He went 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts from June 16^th to September 18^th, which bumped his ERA from 2.10 to 2.93. Now, he was outstanding in his last start against the White Sox, going seven shutout inning with 11 strikeouts, but the overall numbers are probably a cut below the other candidates. The question that I think is fair to ask with Kluber is just how worn down he is. Since the start of 2014, he’s thrown 1,127 innings and faced 4,463 batters. That’s a lot. This year against the Royals, he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts, but he’s been hit hard at Kauffman Stadium where he’s posted a 6.35 ERA and allowed eight runs on 16 hits in 11.1 innings. This game is, in fact, at Kauffman Stadium.

Junis had his first meh start of the year against the Tigers last time out, and it might be part of marring a really strong finish for him after allowing four runs on eight hits in three innings the time out before that one. But no homers allowed is a good thing, given the season he’s had, so he gets one last chance to go into the offseason on a high note. I’ll run the numbers as I do every start for him, but since coming off the DL, he’s gone 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 starts spanning 69.1 innings with eight home runs allowed. He’s struck out 66 and walked just 14. That’ll play. He’s been hit hard by Cleveland a couple times this year, but his last time out against them earlier this month, he allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings. More of that would be a nice way to finish his year.

Sunday – 2:15 pm

The 2018 season wraps up with the Royals seeing Carlos Carrasco somehow for the first time since April 6^th when he went six innings and gave up two runs on five hits. Now, think back to that time. Giving up two runs against the Royals then was basically like giving up five or six to a real team, so maybe that wasn’t such a great start. Of course, he is a legitimately very good pitcher and has found his way to another fully healthy, very good season. He strikes out a ton of hitters, doesn’t give up a crazy amount of hits and doesn’t walk guys. No, he isn’t an ace, but he’s a heck of a number two. If you’re looking for a weakness, he’s actually been at his worst when he’s first starting a game, though that’s if you can call that his “worst” as he’s given up a .253/.287/.406 line. Still, though, he’s allowed 10 of the 21 homers he’s allowed all season in just 35 percent of the plate appearances. He’s 10-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 23 games against the Royals in his career. Whit Merrifield has really enjoyed hitting against him in 16 plate appearances, putting up a .500/.533/1.000 line. That’ll play.

And the season wraps up with Eric Skoglund throwing the first pitch, so that’s…something. Though I should be fair to say that he’s been really good since he came off the DL and I was actually disappointed that his last start got cut short because of the rain delay in Cincy. In four games, he’s gone 15.1 innings and given up just eight hits and two runs to lower his ERA by 1.3 runs. He’ll be making his third career start against the Indians. The first two were both last year and didn’t go so well. He lasted 3.1 innings combined and allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with three strikeouts and four walks. So yeah. Happy last day of the season!

This is the toughest series of the year to predict because who knows how the Indians are going to play it? Do they want to stay completely fresh and everyone will play or do they want to take the opportunity to rest guys and play their bench a little bit before the postseason? My guess is we don’t see guys for too long unless they need the reps like maybe Josh Donaldson. I’m going to go out on a true limb here and say the Royals take three of four and give us some warm and fuzzy feelings to take into the offseason.

That’s not the point here. The point is that while Kansas City has been at times bad, they’ve usually been fundamentally sound and of late have been legitimately exciting at times. This was in rather direct opposition to Detroit, which sold off almost all of its players you’ve ever heard of, leaving them with… this collection of people. Niko Goodrum has been out for nine days and I suspect that has caused considerably more consternation than a good team would likely worry about.

The Tigers don’t look to have a considerable amount of talent, both now or on the horizon, but they compounded that by playing extremely sloppy baseball, at least on Friday night. Say what you want about the Royals, and God knows I have a lot this year, not one time have I thought, “I… I’m not sure that professional baseball player knows how to catch or throw a baseball.”

The struggles in the field started for Detroit in the first inning, although one of the problems didn’t make the scoreboard as an error. Adalberto Mondesi reached via error on Dawel Lugo (that’s not a real name) and then scored FROM FIRST on an Alex Gordon single, running on the pitch when Gordon blooped it into left, checking up at third only to see Christin Stewart lazily one-hop the return throw to second. Can’t do that against the fastest player in baseball, and BERTO made him pay.

Whit Merrifield stole a base after leading off the third inning with a single, because that’s what Whit does. He moved to third on Mondesi’s ground out and scored on Gordon’s single because Gordon is very, very quietly hitting .385 (10-for-26) since Sept. 15.

Everything more or less fell apart in the fourth for Detroit, although an equally baffling baserunning play helped the Tigers limit the damage. After Jorge Bonifacio led off with a walk, Alcides Escobar reached on an error when Jarrod Saltalamacchia missed a catch of Francisco Liriano’s throw to first—in fairness to Saltalamacchia, Liriano hummed a beebee from about two feet away, so it’s not all on him—to put Bonifacio on third.

Boni then got his on yuks by wandering some 30 feet off the bag at third, I suppose in anticipation of a safety squeeze? Either way, James McCann picked him off and suddenly the Royals looked like maybe they wouldn’t make anything out of this golden opportunity.

Stewart struck again, however, this time fumbling Rosell Herrera’s double all over the yard to score Escobar and give Herrera an extra base; Cam Gallagher drove him in with a sac fly to make whatever it was Stewart was purporting to do out there sting even more.

Down 4-0, the Tigers finally went to work on Ian Kennedy in the fifth, when Ronny Rodriguez tomahawked an Ian Kennedy offering into the bullpen in left. An inning later—after the Royals couldn’t bring Herrera home on a two-out triple—Nicholas Castellanos’s one-out double plated JaCoby Jones to make it a two-run game.

Kennedy might not have had the 20-game winner stuff, but he certainly did his part to ensure that he wouldn’t have to go as long between wins this time. By the time he finally exited—after a throwing error by Mondesi put Pete Kozma on to start the eighth—Kennedy had gone seven-plus innings while allowing just two earned, striking out six and scattering seven hits. He’d take the unearned run as well after Castellanos’ double down the line in left hung up in the same janky corner that Stewart had trouble with earlier in the game; Gordon didn’t kick the ball across half the outfield, but the carom did allow Kozma to score.

Wily Peralta came on in the ninth and gave up a single to Rodriguez and walked Jeimer Candelario because why not? Fortunately, he struck out Lugo and Jim Adduci for his season’s 12^th save to even the series at one game apiece.

Your Unusually Happy Tweet of the Night

#Royals scored, and made Loriano throw 22 pitches. Neat.

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]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/21/recap-the-royals-are-bad-but-they-are-not-detroit-bad/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/20/series-preview-royals-at-detroit-tigers-september-20-23/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/20/series-preview-royals-at-detroit-tigers-september-20-23/#comments Thu, 20 Sep 2018 15:15:51 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39823 The Royals take their last trip to Detroit in 2018 to see the Tigers in a battle of the blah as the season comes to a close. I believe the current version of the Royals is better than the current version of the Tigers, though the current version of the Royals isn’t exactly a juggernaut on the road. The Tigers offense is rough with a lineup full of hitters ranging from slightly below average to downright bad and then there’s also Nicholas Castellanos, who can actually hit. The best pitcher in the rotation might be Matthew Boyd, which isn’t ideal. And the bullpen isn’t Royals bad, but it’s bad too. It’s not a great situation in Detroit right now, but they’re building just like the Royals, so at least it’s two teams in a similar place.

Tigers Vitals

Record	61-91, 3rd Place, AL Central
Team TAv	.246
Team SP DRA	4.78
Team RP DRA	4.52
Team WARP Leader	Nicholas Castellanos, 4.3
Record vs. Royals	6-9

Royals vs. Tigers

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Jeimer Candelario	.228	.316	.407	.262	1.3
Christin Stewart	.229	.341	.257	.229	-0.2
Nicholas Castellanos	.297	.354	.491	.303	4.3
Victor Martinez	.247	.295	.348	.232	-1.2
Niko Goodrum	.236	.310	.431	.262	1.0
Jim Adduci	.273	.293	.404	.245	-0.6
James McCann	.216	.264	.313	.214	-0.7
Dawel Lugo	.206	.250	.265	.200	-0.4
JaCoby Jones	.210	.264	.379	.225	0.8

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 6:10 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Jorge Lopez	16	52.2	2	4	3.93	4.36	0.5
Matthew Boyd	29	165.1	9	12	4.08	4.87	0.8

Boyd is having a nice season, getting a good chunk of strikeouts, showing similar to control to his almost solid 2016 season and limiting hits extremely well. He does a lot of his work with his slider, which has been truly outstanding this year. He’s recorded more than half his strikeouts with it and allowed a .165 average with a .263 SLG. It’s interestingly not quite as lethal against lefties, though still good, but he’s allowed a bit more power to same-siders off it. He’s put together this solid year while being surprisingly not great against runners in scoring position, allowing a .286/.333/.473 in those situations compared to .203/.279/.364 with the bases empty. He’s gone 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA against the Royals this year in four starts with just one home run allowed in 25 innings.

Lopez looks like he’s in line to make this start after leaving his last one with a chest contusion after running into Hunter Dozier. He couldn’t quite follow up his near perfect game, going just 4.1 innings before the injury and allowing three runs on nine hits, but he really fell apart after the pain started, so it’s probably not fair to box score scout. He threw four shutout innings to start, and if he has his curve working against the Tigers, that’s a team that hasn’t seen him before and a really bad lineup, so he has an opportunity to put up a fantastic start if it’s working for him. The one thing I’d like to see is the swinging strikes like he got against Baltimore when he had 14 in 99 pitches. This Tigers team seems like one he could absolutely dominate, so it might be fun.

Friday – 6:10 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Ian Kennedy	20	106.2	2	8	4.72	5.52	-0.3
Francisco Liriano	25	125.0	5	10	4.54	5.39	-0.1

It sure looked like a bounceback season for Liriano after his sixth start of the year when he shut down a terrible Royals team to bring his ERA down to 2.97, but things haven’t gone quite as well since. In his last 19 games (18 starts), he’s gone 2-9 with a 5.18 ERA in 88.2 innings and struck out 75 while walking a whopping 53. Basically this is who he is now, fast start or not. That said, he’s been decent in September, allowing just four earned runs in 18 innings, though he has allowed five unearned runs, so it’s not all roses for him. He hasn’t been too bad early in the games, giving up a .225/.324/.326 line the first time through the order with a 3.86 ERA in the first three innings. But the second time through is a disaster with an .855 OPS allowed and the third time through is slightly worse at .863. It’s a small sample, but Jorge Bonifacio is 3 for 5 with two doubles and a homer against Liriano. I’m guessing he’ll be in the lineup for this one.

I think most people are ready for Ian Kennedy to just be done, but he’s got two more years under contract and it’s worth mentioning that in his first two starts off the DL, he’s been quite good. He’s gone six in both starts and allowed just two earned runs total while striking out 10 and walking five. The biggest thing for him, though, is no home runs allowed. It’ll be his first start against a team other than the Twins since June 29^th, so maybe this is another real test for him. Kennedy, if healthy, is going to be in the rotation next season, so it’s in the Royals best interest for him to pitch well because that’s better than the alternative.

Saturday – 5:10 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Jakob Junis	28	165.0	8	12	4.42	5.79	-0.9
Jordan Zimmermann	23	123.1	7	8	4.41	4.43	1.2

Given how bad Zimmermann was last season, this year has to be considered some sort of success even if it hasn’t been that great. Of course, he matches Liriano’s 5.18 ERA in his last 11 starts since the All-Star break. He’s not striking hitters out and he’s giving up tons of long balls with 17 allowed in that time. Lefties have crushed him, which I’d think bodes well for Ryan O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi, especially considering he’s not only easy to hit, but he’s around the strike zone a lot. Given that the stuff isn’t especially good anymore, he’s been hit hard on the first pitch with a  .400 average allowed and an .833 SLG. That’s six homers in 61 plate appearances that ended there, which isn’t a great number to have. He’s been fine against the Royals, but he struggled in his last start against them in July, going five innings and giving up four runs on seven hits and two homers.

Junis had been so good for awhile since coming off the disabled list, but the home run ball has returned and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning in his last start against the Twins. He’s now allowed five homers in his last two starts, and even though one was an eight-inning outing, there’s a little reason for concern. Luckily, Junis has purchased the Tigers from the Ilitch family as he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in four starts against them, going 31 innings, allowing 21 hits and striking out 25 while walking just three. It’s been a pretty impressive display and he’ll get the opportunity to go 5-0 against them in this one.

Sunday – 12:10 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Brad Keller	40	133.1	8	6	3.17	4.83	0.6
Daniel Norris	9	34.2	0	5	5.71	5.36	-0.1

It wasn’t supposed to be like this for Norris. He finished so strong as a 23-year old in 2016 that it looked like he was about to really emerge as a solid starter for the Tigers for years to come. Now, his fastball velocity is down to 90-91 after averaging nearly 94 in that 2016 season. He’s been mostly a two-pitch pitcher this year, using that (with some horrible results) and a slider (with some much better results). My guess is that if the velocity doesn’t come back, he won’t either, but the Tigers need bodies, so here he is. He is still striking out a ton of hitters with 40 strikeouts in his 34.2 innings, but he’s been a bit homer prone and just generally not all that good. He did pitch reasonably well his last time out against the Twins and he held the Royals to one run over 4.2 innings back in April, so that’s a couple things to build on for him if he’s looking.

Keller picked up his first career hit and run scored in his last outing, but continued to impress on the mound even though it wasn’t a great start for him. Yes, he gave up four runs on 10 hits in six innings, but he struck out seven and got a ridiculous 19 swinging strikes in 109 pitches. His slider was the king in this one with 11 swings and misses out of 17 swings and 31 total thrown. That slider could be a huge difference maker for him as he tries to stick as a starter into next season and beyond. He hasn’t faced the Tigers as a starter, so it’ll be a test for him, but if his slider is working, the success of Junis against them should bode well for Keller.

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Like I said at the top, I think the Royals are better, but they’ve got some road woes still and four-game series are notoriously hard to win, so I’ll go with a split here, but at this point, nothing would surprise me.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/20/series-preview-royals-at-detroit-tigers-september-20-23/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/15/recap-kennedy-gordon-esky-royals-turn-back-the-clock-to-defeat-minnesota/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/15/recap-kennedy-gordon-esky-royals-turn-back-the-clock-to-defeat-minnesota/#comments Sun, 16 Sep 2018 02:58:55 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39522 For starters, I want to question the FS1 brass about what possibly constituted Minnesota and Kansas City’s being the featured Saturday night national broadcast. Were you throwing off because it was a college football Saturday? Were you hitting the Willians Astudillo/Effectively Wild demographic? Did y’all just want barbecue? It was the barbecue, wasn’t it?

It’s fine! In fact, it’s better than fine because it gave a national audience a chance to see the very best parts of the Kansas City… rebuild? Build? Mid-year retooling that offered a jaded fanbase some (possibly misguided) hope? Probably that last one. But regardless, the Royals showcased their finest wares in a 10-3 win against the Twins, Saturday.

The Royals got going in the first, taking a 1-0 lead thanks to Whit Merrifield’s leadoff double, Adalberto Mondesi’s groundout—which moved Merrifield to third—and another Alex Gordon groundout to score Merrifield. Gordon was not finished by a long shot.

After the Twins tied the game with an RBI single from Ehire Adrianza in the second, the Royals answered with another run, this one from the bat of Alcides Escobar to drive in Jorge Bonifacio, who singled with one out and moved to second on Rosell Herrera’s groundout.

Following a quiet third inning, the Royals broke through for four runs in the fourth. It started rather beautifully—Herrera singled and scored on an Escobar triple (we’re not done with him yet either). But then there was some consternation when Cam Gallagher’s bunt attempt failed but Astudillo made a pick-off attempt on Escobar that sailed into left and brought the veteran home. Paul Molitor seemed to think Gallagher had interfered with Astudillo’s  throw, and he felt so strongly about it that he got tossed out of the game for his troubles.

No longer a candidate to bunt, Gallagher roped a double to left, moved to third on a BERTO single and then both scored when Gordon doubled, at which point the game was broken wide open.

Logan Forsythe singled in Gregorio Petit in the top of the fifth. Whoop-de-doo.

Gordon drove in Gallagher (single) and Merrifield (walk) in the bottom of the sixth with a double. An inning later, Escobar scored Herrera with a double, and then came around on Gallagher’s single—I’ll make a big deal out of Gordon and Escobar turning back the clock, but don’t sleep on Gallagher going 4-for-4 as he bids to become future Drew Butera.

Meanwhile, in just his third start since late June, Ian Kennedy didn’t have to work terribly hard—big leads are pretty easy for anyone to make stand up, even someone who entered on a 17-start streak without a win. Six innings, six hits, one earned and four strikeouts later and Kennedy had his first win since April 7.

In the eighth, the Twins pushed a run across against Glenn Sparkman, who relieved Tim Hill after Jake Cave’s leadoff single. Astudillo greeted Sparkman with a single to move Cave to third, and then Max Kepler scored him with a sac fly. Hilariously, the inning ended with an Adrianza pop up to third, only Astudillo had broken for second… or forgot there was only one out? Either way, he was doubled off first to end the frame and, for all intents and purposes, the evening.

Your Unusually Happy Tweet of the Game

Beautiful baseball being played by the Royals right now

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/15/recap-kennedy-gordon-esky-royals-turn-back-the-clock-to-defeat-minnesota/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/13/series-preview-royals-vs-minnesota-twins-september-13-16/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/13/series-preview-royals-vs-minnesota-twins-september-13-16/#comments Thu, 13 Sep 2018 15:05:43 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39211 The Royals have four more games at home before they hit the road for one last time in 2018 and they welcome in the Minnesota Twins. It’s the final time these two teams will match up, so they know each other well and have been relatively evenly matched this season. We all know what a disappointment this season has been for the Twins, but they’ve had some nice performances from Eddie Rosario and Jake Cave to help get them through a long winter before next season. And they have the potential to have a decent rotation as well if Jake Odorizzi can bounce back from an uneven year. While I wouldn’t predict big things for them or anything, there’s some talent in Minnesota that could get them back to the mid-80s in wins in 2019.

Note: All advanced stats through action on Tuesday.

Twins Vitals

Record	67-78, 2nd Place, AL Central
Team TAv	.253
Team SP DRA	5.44
Team RP DRA	4.83
Team WARP Leader	Eddie Rosario, 3.7
Record vs. Royals	8-7

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Joe Mauer	.274	.345	.375	.256	0.3
Jorge Polanco	.277	.329	.404	.257	0.1
Eddie Rosario	.287	.323	.479	.278	3.7
Logan Forsythe	.235	.312	.299	.226	0.2
Jake Cave	.261	.308	.473	.272	0.6
Mitch Garver	.260	.330	.404	.260	0.3
Max Kepler	.231	.324	.420	.261	2.3
Robbie Grossman	.262	.351	.369	.272	0.2
Ehire Adrianza	.251	.304	.376	.239	-0.3

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 7:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP	4	12.1	0	2	11.68	10.33	-0.7
Heath Fillmyer, RHP	14	60.2	2	1	4.75	6.47	-0.9

A quick look at the ERA and DRA difference for Gonsalves shows he’s been a little unlucky in his 12.1 innings at the big league level. Okay fine, so he’s been terrible either way. The royals had their way with him in Minnesota, but unfortunately his opponent then and in this one couldn’t hold a big lead after the Royals got to him in the third. In his big league career, he’s walked 13 and struck out six. I don’t care if you have talent, that doesn’t play. The sample is obviously tiny, but in 16 plate appearances against lefties, he’s allowed a ridiculous .429 ISO. Righties have hit him hard too, but yikes. The stuff just isn’t there for him. He throws his midding fastball a lot and of his secondary pitches, only his slider has been even close to being worth a damn. He didn’t last long last week, so nobody has more than two plate appearances against him, but the hits came from Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Modnesi, Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield. I sort of have a hunch that if Hunter Dozier plays, he’ll have a big game against Gonsalves too.

Fillmyer continues to never allow me to either buy in or sell on him. For the second time in just 10 starts, he was given a big lead that he coughed up relatively quickly. This time, the Royals plated six in the third against these very same Twins and he promptly gave up four and couldn’t escape the third. It was reminiscent of his start against the White Sox where he had a 6-0 lead and couldn’t get out of the fourth before giving that up. The Twins have proven to be a struggle for him with nine runs allowed in just 5.1 innings. Luckily this game is in the comfort of Kauffman Stadium where he’s 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven games and has allowed just 31 hits in 39 innings and only two home runs. Maybe that’ll help him get over the hump against the Twins.

Friday – 7:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Jose Berrios, RHP	29	173.2	11	11	3.67	4.74	1.1
Jorge Lopez, RHP	15	48.1	2	4	3.72	4.38	0.4

The Royals just saw Berrios a few days ago and he was very good, going six innings and allowing just a run on three hits. Expect to see Alcides Escobar in this one as his .353/.353/.706 line against him will make him a must-start for the Royals…for some reason. Berrios has continued his success against the Royals this year after struggling his first two seasons. He’s now 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this year. His last bad start against the Royals was July 1^st last year, so maybe he’s due.

Lopez gets to make his next start following his near-perfect game against the team he almost threw it against. He was magnificent last week against the Twins, obviously, and following that game was one of the greatest highlights of a terrible season. I’ve long been a believer that Lopez is a reliever long-term, as I’ve said before, but he seems to be doing everything he can in his last two starts to get me to change my mind. The big thing for me in the past has been that he just begins to struggle a bit at 50 pitches or so. In his last two starts, opponents have hit .174/.208/.174 against him after the 50^th pitch. Sure that’s arbitrary and it’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging. Now let’s see him do it again.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Chase De Jong, RHP	1	4.0	0	0	0.00	4.36	0.0
Ian Kennedy, RHP	19	100.2	1	8	4.92	5.55	-0.3

De Jong had his first start since last season against the Royals last weekend and looked pretty good, giving up just one hit in four innings, though he walked four. He uses a four-seam fastball that doesn’t have much zip quite often and then mixes in a slider and changeup, both of which were quite effective against the Royals last week. The sample is tiny, but his fastball has been hit around in his career, so if he lives on that too much, a young lineup like the Royals that hunts mediocre fastballs should be able to do some damage. He’s allowed a .300/.394/.483 line to lefties in his career, which seems to be a good sign for guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin and Adalberto Mondesi.

Like it or not, Kennedy is signed up for two more years and will at least be part of the rotation to start next season, so his performance against the Twins on Sunday was really encouraging. I loved the six innings with one run on four hits, but I really loved 14 swinging strikes in just 93 pitches. His fastball, which is so important, was absolutely outstanding. If he’s going to provide value again, he’s going to need that fastball to be doing its thing.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Kyle Gibson, RHP	29	176.2	7	13	3.67	4.12	2.4
Jakob Junis, RHP	27	162.0	8	12	4.28	5.59	-0.5

It’s been a nice season for Gibson with the most strikeouts of his career while his walk rate has remained mostly steady. Between the extra swings and misses and the lack of hits allowed, he’s looking like he might have made some sustainable changes to keep him as a solid number three starter for the next couple years at least. If we’re being honest, given his affordable salary and inconsistent track record, the Twins would probably be wise to shop him this offseason. Gibson has been dynamite when ahead in the count, allowing just a .168/.176/.284 line to opponents with just 12 extra base hits in 194 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a reason to not believe, he’s allowed a .244/.332/.420 line with the bases empty and .191/.258/.255 with runners in scoring position. That bases empty line is pretty much in line with what he’s allowed on the whole in his career, so there’s a decent bet that’s who he is and he’s had some strand luck. I guess we’ll see next year if it can carry over.

Junis is going to earn himself a reputation as a second half master. In 123.2 innings after the break in his young career, he’s 10-3 with a 3.20 ERA. This year, he’s 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA since coming off the DL, which also coincides with the break ending. The 58 strikeouts and 12 walks in 60.1 innings are really encouraging and he’s now gone four straight starts without issuing a walk, with the streak reaching 116 batters. That’s pretty good. He’s been a horse in his last three starts too, going 24 innings with 15 hits allowed and 18 strikeouts. The home runs crept back in a little bit in his last start with two in the third, so that’s something to keep an eye on, but he’s just been so good recently that we’re back to anxiously awaiting each Junis start.

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Four game sets are often split, and four-game sets between two teams with nothing to play for probably are even more so (don’t look that up). So yeah, I’ll say a split. I know, I know…boring.

]]> http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/13/series-preview-royals-vs-minnesota-twins-september-13-16/feed/ 0 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/29/roster-math-enters-advanced-trigonometry-phase/ http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/29/roster-math-enters-advanced-trigonometry-phase/#comments Wed, 29 Aug 2018 12:00:54 +0000 http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37918 With the dawn of September baseball peeking over the horizon along with the Omaha Storm Chasers formally eliminated from postseason consideration on Tuesday night, thoughts may turn to those who could soon join the big league club. As you’re daydreaming of expanded rosters, keep in mind the Royals have been judicious in the past with their call-ups in the season’s final month.

Start with those currently on the 40-man roster. A last-place team can always use a few extra arms and Jason Adam, Glenn Sparkman, Scott Barlow, Trevor Oaks and Eric Stout (though he is on the disabled list) have all logged big league time this summer. All have had varying degrees of success at both levels, but being on the 40-man gives them an edge over someone like Richard Lovelady. Lovelady doesn’t even need to be placed on the 40-man for another year. He’s not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2019 season.

The same thing is happening over on the position player side of the roster. Someone like Nicky Lopez, who is having a fine season split between Double and Triple-A, certainly is making a case for a call-up. Yet he’s not on the 40-man and, like Lovelady, isn’t Rule 5 eligible for another year. Someone who is eligible for the Rule 5 is Frank Schwindel. He was eligible last year, but went undrafted. But all that means is that the Royals will need to find a spot for him on the 40-man in late November.

We will see an exodus from the disabled list. Jorge Soler has reported to Omaha for a rehab assignment. He has been the designated hitter for back to back nights for the Storm Chasers, the role he will fill once he returns to Kansas City. Plus, he’s on the 60-day DL, so someone currently on the roster will have to be moved to get Soler back to active status. Ian Kennedy is likely to make a rehab start this week. He’ll get a few major league innings once he’s ready, but won’t cost anyone their spot on the 40-man. 

The point is, these roster decisions aren’t easy or straightforward, even when the calendar turns to September. It’s not as simple as the Royals releasing guys like Alcides Escobar or Jason Hammel. You may disagree, but stuff like that just isn’t done. You don’t want to be that team that just releases veterans because the rosters are expanding and you want to look at some kids. The time to release guys like Escobar and Hammel, if that’s the road you decide to take, is in July or August. Not now. Appearances matter. The Royals will create 40-man roster space this winter through the sundry offseason moves, but for the moment, the roster is full and the Royals don’t have a lot of room to maneuver.

One way the Royals could find an opening would be if they dealt Lucas Duda. Duda has been a league-average bat overall, but he’s really destroyed right-handed pitching this year. In 239 plate appearances against righties, Duda is hitting .267/.335/.479 with 11 of his 13 home runs. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Duda has cleared waivers, freeing the Royals to deal him to any team interested.

There must not be much of a market at the moment and it takes two to trade. The Royals haven’t been shy about trading their assets this year, and while Duda isn’t as sexy as a Mike Moustakas, he still would provide some value as a platoon bat down the stretch. You have to assume the Royals are actively shopping him at this point. He’s making a base of $3.5 million and has earned $200,000 in plate appearance bonuses so far. (He will cash in another $100k with another nine plate appearances.) If he’s traded, I would assume the new team would be responsible for the pro-rated portion of his base salary (around $550,000 for the season’s final month) and any new plate appearance incentives he reaches. That’s not going to get you any kind of interesting prospect, but still, the Royals need to move him to maybe free up a roster spot for one of those potential September call-ups.

The youngsters and the newcomers need to play, and for the most part, they will. But roster decisions made in January can have an impact in September. The Royals will need to get creative to optimize playing time for their future. The kids are coming. It just may not be happening as quickly as everyone would like.

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