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	<title>Kansas City &#187; Ivan Nova</title>
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		<title>2017 Royals Trade Targets: Starting Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/11/2017-royals-trade-targets-starting-pitchers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jul 2017 12:17:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derek Holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edinson Volquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Nova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jaime Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Hahn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jhoulys Chacin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Koehler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trevor Cahill]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, folks, the Royals are 44-43 and right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead of digging through other team’s farm systems, it looks like we’ll be digging through other team’s big league rosters to see where the Royals can improve. By my count, I see three places the Royals are targeting to upgrade. One [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, folks, the Royals are 44-43 and right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead of digging through other team’s farm systems, it looks like we’ll be digging through other team’s big league rosters to see where the Royals can improve. By my count, I see three places the Royals are targeting to upgrade. One is starting pitching, one is relief pitching, and one is DH any way they can. So today is the first in a three-part series looking at starting pitching, position players (I’ve got a bonus non-DH just to make everyone happy) and relievers.</p>
<p>The Royals could very well surprise when looking for a starting pitcher, but I think they’ll focus on middle of the rotation arms to help lengthen the crew rather than go for the big name at the top. Part of the reason for that is they don’t have the prospect capital to go get one of those pitchers. I do think the system is better than many believe, but when competing with teams with great, deep systems, the Royals will get left in the dark.</p>
<p>Here are the starting pitchers I think they will be targeting in the next few weeks, listed alphabetically:</p>
<p><strong>Trevor Cahill –</strong> The starter turned reliever turned starter again has had his injury issues and has only made nine starts this year, but he’s been very good with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.46 DRA. With a base salary of $1.75 million (and an assignment bonus of $250k with a trade), he’s probably the right price for the Royals. What I like about Cahill is that he can give you some starts and then likely slide into the bullpen as a solid piece there if they do make a playoff run. I don’t think he’d cost too much in terms of prospects either.</p>
<p><strong>Andrew Cashner –</strong> He’s having a deceiving season. He’s been healthy, but he’s made 14 starts and averaged almost six innings per. The problem is that he’s struck out just 4.4 per nine and walked four per nine. That’s not a good combination. His 3.54 ERA comes with a 4.51 FIP and 5.73 DRA. I would stay as far away from Cashner as possible, but I like to be thorough here. I imagine the Rangers wouldn’t require much of a return on him, so if they’re looking for a guy just to take the ball every fifth day and avoid the young pitchers and/or Travis Wood, I guess he’d fit the bill.</p>
<p><strong>Jhoulys Chacin –</strong> He’ s made 18 starts and averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.67 DRA. He’s a back of the rotation starter if there ever was one, but he gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits home runs reasonably well and can be reliable. Like Cahill, he’s super cheap with a salary of $1.75 million and no assignment or other bonus. A move for Chacin wouldn’t make the Royals the favorites or anything but it wouldn’t be bad.</p>
<p><strong>Jesse Chavez –</strong> I promise there are guys on this list who aren’t <em>just</em> placeholders in a rotation, but the alphabet is what the alphabet is. Chavez is just another guy, but he’s someone else who has been successful in a relief role in the past, so he could be put there in the postseason in the Chris Young/Kris Medlen role if the Royals get there and be impactful. He’s not nearly as cheap as some of the others on this list with a base salary of $5.75 million and $3 million in incentives, so I see him as unlikely, but the Royals could offer a package that doesn’t part with much to get him.</p>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada –</strong> As the Blue Jays inch closer to selling with every loss, I imagine Estrada will be a popular name. He’s having a terrible season with a 5.17 ERA and a 7.41 DRA, but he’d been so good the last two years that you trade for him hoping it’s just a weird blip. He’s struck out a ton of batters and has exhibited his typically fantastic control, but he’s gone from allowing less than seven hits per nine to allowing more than nine. His opponent’s TAv is consistent with the past three seasons (all .261 before this year’s .265), so it does seem that he’s dealing with some bad luck. You might get a really nice middle of the rotation piece with him.</p>
<p><strong>Scott Feldman –</strong> Of all the mediocre pitchers on this list, Feldman might be my least favorite for the Royals to acquire, but at a base salary of $2.3 million and maybe another $600k or so in bonuses, he’s inexpensive and has been solid before. It’s probably not fair that I dislike him so much as a target because he has a 3.94 ERA and a 4.36 DRA after posting a 3.97 DRA and a 4.84 DRA mostly in relief last year. He wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects, you wouldn’t think, so this is a real possibility.</p>
<p><strong>Jaime Garcia –</strong> Garcia hasn’t exactly been the picture of health throughout his career, but he’s made 16 starts this year and hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been good. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 5.05 DRA with not enough strikeouts and too many walks. He’s also not especially cheap. I’d pass here, but Jon Heyman listed him, so I will too, I guess.</p>
<p><strong>Jesse Hahn –</strong> I’m not sure what it is about Hahn I like, but the A’s don’t share that with me, and with good reason. He’s posted a 5.30 ERA and 5.77 DRA this year after a 6.02 ERA and 6.82 DRA last season. I remember being a fan prior to the 2016 season and not really knowing where things went wrong. I’d take a shot on the potential that he could get back to where he was before with Eiland working with him. He’s limited home runs well for the most part in his career, so maybe they can fix him. Hahn would likely require a return that the Royals might not love to part with, but I think what he could be as a middle of the rotation starter would be worth the shot.</p>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ –</strong> This is potentially a waste of space, but I can’t get it out of my head that the Blue Jays would be a good match for Jorge Soler, and I can’t stop thinking about Soler for Happ. After being fixed in Pittsburgh, he had a good showing in the 2016 AL Cy Young race, winning 20 games with a 3.18 ERA. He’s followed it up this season with a 3.54 ERA and 4.09 DRA. He’s not great, but he’s definitely a solid arm who could make a rotation better. I don’t even know if the Blue Jays would trade him, but if they can get some right-handed power for a few seasons in return, maybe.</p>
<p><strong>Derek Holland –</strong> I lied about Feldman. Holland is my least favorite player on this list, but Heyman mentioned him too, so here he is. Dayton, if you’re reading this, don’t do it.</p>
<p><strong>Tom Koehler –</strong> A quick glance at Koehler’s numbers and you might vomit, but this is kind of out of nowhere for him, and the Royals would have him for another season. Maybe it’s not worth it, but for a guy with an ERA of 8.00 and a DRA of 7.25, you might be able to get him for a song and see if you can get him back to his back of the rotation stuff.</p>
<p><strong>Ivan Nova –</strong> I’m not sure Nova would even be available, especially not for a price the Royals should pay, but his insanely good control is appealing. He doesn’t strike many out, so I’d hesitate a bit with him, but he’s averaging 20 outs per start, and there’s a ton of value there even if it just gets you through the regular season. Of course, if you’re giving up what you’d likely give up, you’d hate to just get through the regular season with it.</p>
<p><strong>Edinson Volquez –</strong> A reunion with Ed could be in the offing given what the Royals need. He’s had an okay season for Miami with a high point of a no-hitter earlier this year. The issue is he’s walked far too many batters this season, but he has a 4.19 ERA and a 3.65 DRA. The bigger issue is that he’s owed $13 million next season. The Marlins would have to eat some money on this deal, but at that point, the prospect haul might be too much for him. I don’t think it’s likely, but I imagine the Royals will at least call to find out if they can make it happen.</p>
<p>I should note that in the original version of this article, I had Dan Straily of the Marlins listed. He&#8217;s cost-controlled and team-controlled and good. If he were to become available, he&#8217;d be my top choice, but it seems as if the Marlins aren&#8217;t interested in dealing him, so he was removed from this list.</p>
<p>Stay tuned for position players and relievers the Royals could target over the next couple days.</p>
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		<title>Trade Candidates: The Starting Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/19/trade-candidates-the-starting-pitchers/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/19/trade-candidates-the-starting-pitchers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2016 12:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Cashner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Straily]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Smyly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ervin Santana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hector Santiago]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Nova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Odorizzi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Hellickson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge De La Rosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Junior Guerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Garza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Shoemaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rich hill]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For years, when discussing the Royals at the trade deadline, the question asked was who it was the Royals could trade to help improve their future. After winning back-to-back AL pennants and a World Series title, the question is now who the Royals can acquire to help their current team. I have to say that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For years, when discussing the Royals at the trade deadline, the question asked was who it was the Royals could trade to help improve their future. After winning back-to-back AL pennants and a World Series title, the question is now who the Royals can acquire to help their current team. I have to say that it can be a lot of fun trading veterans for prospects and getting to dream on them, but the winning in the now thing is its own brand of fun that simply can’t be beat.</p>
<p>With that in mind, the Royals sit a couple weeks from the deadline in a position to make a move for a playoff spot. While they might not ultimately be “buyers” this trade season, they are most definitely in the market. Today, I’m going to look at the starting pitching they could acquire to fortify a rotation that ranks in the bottom half of the league in many categories. Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at position players, mainly outfielders, they can acquire to help round out an offense that hasn’t performed up to the level of expectations.</p>
<p>The Royals have the ammunition to acquire basically any player on the market with a guy like Raul Mondesi. That doesn’t mean they’re going to use him as a trade chip, but the possibility still exists until it doesn’t exist.</p>
<p>Let’s get started. As always, these names are in alphabetical order, so that has nothing to do with my preference of player.</p>
<p><strong>Andrew Cashner</strong> &#8211; In 2013 and 2014, Cashner looked like a rising star. He had been moved to the rotation by the Padres and was solid in that role. In 50 games (45 starts), he went 15-16 but had a 2.87 ERA in 298.1 innings. He had good stuff, but that didn&#8217;t seem to translate to strikeouts. Then last year, the strikeouts arrived, but he was much more hittable and his ERA jumped to 4.34. He&#8217;s been even worse this year and has spent time on the disabled list. He&#8217;s owed a little more than $3 million the rest of the year and is a free agent following the season. Some teams will find him attractive because he&#8217;s cheap and talented, so he&#8217;ll fetch something on the market, but he probably won&#8217;t be crazy in terms of prospects. This could be a fit if the Royals think they can figure him out quickly.</p>
<p><strong>Jorge De La Rosa</strong> &#8211; This is an old friend who I never thought would be much of anything in the big leagues, but he&#8217;s made a nice career for himself in Colorado. He was actually the player to be named later in the Royals deal for Ramon Ramirez back in 2008 and he&#8217;s been there ever since. He still walks too many batters and he doesn&#8217;t strike out as many as you&#8217;d like, but he&#8217;s a solid arm. He had a brutally bad start to the year, but after a short stint in the bullpen, he has a 2.68 ERA in his last six starts over 37 innings. He&#8217;s due about $6 million the rest of the year and then is a free agent. I&#8217;m thinking he can be had for a prospect in the 11-15 range or so, which the Royals could part with pretty easily.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Garza</strong> &#8211; Garza was good at one time, but he isn&#8217;t any more. The Brewers seemed like they got a pretty good bargain on him when they gave him four years prior to 2014, but he&#8217;s really fallen off a cliff. He spent the first part of this season on the disabled list. I really don&#8217;t like this option, but he&#8217;s out there and the Royals like reclamation projects. He&#8217;s owed about $6 million the rest of this year, $12.5 million next year and has an option for 2018 that will likely be for $5 million. If the Royals think they can figure out his issues, that&#8217;s a bargain. If not, that&#8217;s an albatross. My money is on albatross.</p>
<p><strong>Junior Guerra</strong> &#8211; This is a pretty good story. He was originally a catcher, but eventually moved to the mound and hung around the minors for a long time. He finally made his debut last year for the White Sox, but was released and then claimed by the Brewers. He&#8217;s been fantastic this season, going 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 starts. He&#8217;s averaging more than six innings per start. He&#8217;s striking out just under eight per nine innings and walking less than three. He&#8217;s limiting hits. Basically, he&#8217;s been a revelation. The Brewers have no real reason to trade him because he&#8217;s cheap and under control for a long time, but I&#8217;d be worried that he&#8217;s a flash in the pan. Still, what he&#8217;s done would be huge for the Royals in that fifth spot. I can&#8217;t imagine he&#8217;d be too pricey to acquire, but would still cost more than Garza, in all likelihood.</p>
<p><strong>Jeremy Hellickson</strong> &#8211; I think Hellickson would be the most Royals and Dayton Moore acquisition you can imagine. When he&#8217;s been good, it always seems he&#8217;s been good in spite of everything. He&#8217;s not quite the extreme fly ball pitcher he&#8217;s made out to be, but he&#8217;s definitely not a ground ball pitcher. He&#8217;s started to strike out more batters and he does have good control, so he&#8217;s a guy you can catch lightning in a bottle with. He&#8217;s owed a bit more than $3 million and then is a free agent following the season, but I think he&#8217;ll be in demand, so he might cost more than he&#8217;s worth. Scratch that, he will cost more than he&#8217;s worth. I could absolutely see this happening, but I&#8217;m not going to love it if and when it does.</p>
<p><strong>Rich Hill</strong> &#8211; Hill is the best name on the market. He was out of the majors and then made his return last year for the Red Sox. Of course, he turned that into a $6 million deal with the A&#8217;s and he&#8217;s been great this year for them. He&#8217;s missed time with a groin injury and left his start on Sunday after five pitches with a popped blister. He&#8217;s not the picture of health, but he&#8217;s been excellent and it looks like the changes he&#8217;s made have been for real. With pretty much every team needing starting pitching in on Hill, I think the price might be too high and one the Royals can&#8217;t match, but they&#8217;re watching him and will be in on him. There&#8217;s already a report the A&#8217;s asked the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza, a top-20 prospect in the game. They backed off that, but the Royals can&#8217;t match that.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Moore</strong> &#8211; Moore was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he had to go under the knife for Tommy John. He came back last year and wasn&#8217;t what you&#8217;d call great. He started this season slow but has a 2.51 ERA and a roughly 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio over his last seven starts where he&#8217;s averaged about six and a half innings. There&#8217;s certainly risk with Moore, but the upside is undeniable. He&#8217;s owed a bit more than $2 million the rest of this year and then has options for $7 million, $9 million and $10 million the next three seasons. He&#8217;s not going to come cheap, but he could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come. It might be worth the cost here to help both this team and the next few.</p>
<p><strong>Ivan Nova</strong> &#8211; Nova isn&#8217;t what you&#8217;d call good, but he won&#8217;t be expensive in either prospects or money. He&#8217;s owed around $2 million the rest of this season and has a 5.46 ERA the last three seasons. He doesn&#8217;t walk many and he gets a decent amount of strikeouts. Plus, there&#8217;s a history with Dave Eiland, so maybe that&#8217;s something that he sees in him. I don&#8217;t know. Nova is probably throwing a dart at a problem, but he&#8217;s out there and could be better than what they&#8217;ve had.</p>
<p><strong>Jake Odorizzi</strong> &#8211; I&#8217;ll start by saying I don&#8217;t see this happening. Odorizzi has struggled lately but did pitch well on Sunday in getting the win against the Orioles. He&#8217;s got good control, gets strikeouts and gives up some home runs, so he&#8217;d fit right in with the Royals. He&#8217;s also under team control for three more seasons after this one and will head to arbitration for the first time before the 2017 season. He&#8217;s going to cost a ton and the production probably doesn&#8217;t match up with what his return will be if they trade him. Still, it&#8217;s an interesting thought.</p>
<p><strong>Ervin Santana</strong> &#8211; I love this idea even though Santana is owed $27 million in 2017 and 2018 and about $6.5 million the rest of this season. He&#8217;s still a quality pitcher and could fill a hole in the rotation for the next two years to come. He&#8217;s owed a little more money than you&#8217;d like, and I&#8217;m not sure the Twins will see a need to move him if they think they can compete over the next couple seasons. Now, maybe they&#8217;d pay down the deal in order to get a better caliber of prospect back, but I think the best bet for the Royals would be to get him at full price without having to pay too much in prospects. With Terry Ryan&#8217;s firing, the Twins may be a little more inclined to sell, so that could help here.</p>
<p><strong>Hector Santiago</strong> &#8211; He doesn&#8217;t get deep into games, but the innings he does give are quality. He limits hits well, gets a few strikeouts and walks a few too many. He also gives up more than his share of homers, but he&#8217;s a good guy at the back of the rotation. He&#8217;s owed a little less than $2.5 million the rest of the year and is arbitration eligible next year before hitting free agency. The Angels system is so weak that Santiago might be a guy the Royals could target with some quantity from the system over high quality. And he&#8217;d give them an extra option next year for a relatively inexpensive salary.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Shoemaker</strong> &#8211; Shoemaker ditched his curve and began using his splitter more and turned into a completely different pitcher. Since May 21, he&#8217;s made 11 starts and averaged just under seven innings per outing. He has a 2.36 ERA with 88 strikeouts and nine walks. These are ace numbers. But because his track record isn&#8217;t that great, if the Angels are willing to sell on him, they probably aren&#8217;t going to get quite as much as someone with those numbers should command. I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;ll trade him. They shouldn&#8217;t, anyway. If so, it might be the same situation as Santiago where the Royals could use quantity to get him. He&#8217;s not arbitration eligible until next year and won&#8217;t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. If this is for real, he would be a huge get.</p>
<p><strong>Drew Smyly</strong> &#8211; He hasn&#8217;t been good this year by any stretch, but he strikes out a ton of hitters and limits walks pretty well. Of course, he also gives up plenty of hits and plenty of homers. He also doesn&#8217;t have the best track record concerning health. I&#8217;m not sure the Rays would trade him with his value as low as it currently is, but if they did, he&#8217;d be a great buy low candidate. I also think he would cost a lot more than the Royals would be willing to pay.</p>
<p><strong>Dan Straily</strong> &#8211; Here&#8217;s another guy who makes a lot of sense. Straily isn&#8217;t going to ever be confused for a top of the rotation arm, but he was solid with Oakland in 2012 and 2013 and after a lost last two years, he&#8217;s resurfaced with the Reds where he has a 4.14 ERA as a starter in 100 innings. He&#8217;s a back of the rotation guy with not enough strikeouts and a few too many walks, but he&#8217;s very difficult to hit, which is his saving grace and helps his WHIP to be a reasonable 1.21 as a starter. He&#8217;s already 27, but he has a ton of control left as he&#8217;s not even eligible for arbitration. I wonder if he&#8217;d be part of a package deal or if the Royals could get him for a bottom half of the top 20 prospects they have. I first mentioned him in early June, and still think he&#8217;d be a nice fit.</p>
<p>So there are a bunch of starters who I think could be available and the Royals could keep an eye on. I&#8217;m not sure they&#8217;ll make any trade, but unless they go way off the grid, these are the likely targets. Tomorrow, I&#8217;ll cover the position players they could be after.</p>
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