Heading into 2019 the Royals have depth in their farm system despite a lack of Top 100 quality prospects. Unfortunately for them, the depth appears at a spot where, historically, the franchise has failed and where most major league teams in baseball fail, pitching. So how does this group of pitchers compare to that group ten years ago?

The Top 100 Prospect – Both groups likely have one Top 100 prospect in the Royals 2018 1st round pick Brady Singer compared to the 2009 right-hander Dan Cortes. The Royals had acquired Cortes for reliever Mike MacDougal and within a year he was inside Baseball America’s Top 100, appearing at 57 following a strong 2007 campaign in Wilmington. Within two years Cortes would prove to be a headache for the Royals, get dealt for Yuni Betancourt and go on to make 14 major league appearances before struggling to make it back. While Singer hasn’t pitched yet in a minor league game just yet, it’s hard to compare the two, but given Singer’s pedigree and feel for pitching, it would be hard to imagine him not at least equaling the Cortes career.

The Burgeoning Lefty – Heading into the 2009 season the Royals probably knew they had a talented lefty on their hands in Mike Montgomery yet the rest of the baseball world was still waiting. Within a year Montgomery would be ranked inside Baseball America and BP’s Top 40 prospects. This year’s group has a similar lefty, though he is a bit further along in his development as a college draftee, in Daniel Lynch. Currently, he’s sitting outside of the top 100 but I wouldn’t be shocked based on the stuff he was showing in Lexington if he found himself inside the Top 100 prior to the season. Don’t be shocked if he’s rated as the Royals best overall prospect to start the season or as their best pitching prospect though it’s not likely he will pitch himself inside the overall Top 40 the way Montgomery did.

The Top 10 – Other pitchers who were included in the Royals Top 10 included Danny Duffy who would go onto a major league career and an appearance into the Top 100 while the rest of the group largely struggled. That glut of pitching in that Top 10 was largely due to the farm system being weak outside the Top 6 prospects though Danny Gutierrez at the time was coming off a strong season in Burlington and was thought to be a good pitching prospect prior to off-field problems looming large over his career. The grouping the Royals currently have though is stronger with Kowar, another fringe Top 100 pitcher, likely heading to Wilmington after helping Lexington to a championship. Reliever Richard Lovelady is likely to contribute to the major league bullpen while Carlos Hernandez and Yefri Del Rosario are much bigger talents than both Rosa and Wood.

Best of the Rest – This group is quite a bit deeper than that 2009 group was though Kelvin Herrera would go onto make 1/3 of HDH. The Royals currently have a deep group of talented pitchers with their first-round picks Kris Bubic featured lower on my list than he will likely slot elsewhere. One scout gave me a Tanner Roark comp on Jon Heasley; Zach Haake was tossing 98 mph at instructs while Morel and Luciano present a pair of latin pitchers who could be near the top of this list next year should they harness their secondary stuff start to start in Lexington this season. It’s not even close though in terms of that grouping compared to this one in terms of talent as this group is much deeper.

The main difference between this group and the last is the data and open mind that the front office has towards pitching development compared to what they did ten years ago.Things change quickly in a year in terms of these lists and franchises though. Little did BA or the Royals know that the best pitcher they would develop was already in the organization and not on this BA list or even the next season’s group. The next Yordano Ventura could be the #2 player chosen this year’s draft or someone I left off. That’s the fun that comes with the process.

@ClintScoles

Featured Photo – Daniel Lynch by @TheGrandOldGame – Instagram

Despite the usual rhetoric, the Royals minor league squads started winning almost immediately, taking championships at multiple levels along the way to a 2015 World Series title. The first championship came at the Low-A level in 2008 at the Midwest League after the Burlington Bees rode a second-half division title into the playoffs and through a perfect playoff run. Ten years later, the Royals front office built another Low-A championship as the Lexington Legends defeated the Lakewood BlueClaws for the South Atlantic League title. Ten years apart and built in similar fashions but how does this recent championship team compare to that one?

Moustakas ’08 Flickr

The 1st Round Pick – Both teams had a 1st round pick who struggled in the early part of their season before finding a groove.
Burlington SS/3b – Mike Moustakas – Yes, Moose started the season at shortstop for the Bees playing 57 games there before making his move to third in June and playing there primarily during the second half of their season. .272/.337/.468 22 HR – Midwest Lg HR leader
Lexington 1b – Nick Pratto – the Royals 2017 1st round pick actually got on base at a higher clip and hit for a slightly higher average, finishing one extra-base hit shy of the 50 Moustakas put up. They did it in different fashions with Pratto striking out at nearly 13% higher clip.

Both players took off during the final two months of their seasons with Moustakas hitting .318/.386/.552 with 10 HR from July 1st to the end of the season compared to Pratto’s .319/.395/.516 with 7 HR. Pratto did perform better in the Low-A playoffs with his 1.148 OPS in six games compared to Moose’s .801.

The new pitcher with a strong finish – The seasons that Danny Duffy and Yefri Del Rosario put up 10 years apart were strikingly similar with both pitchers getting off to slow starts in their first three outings before getting in an outstanding groove.

Duffy – Paul Gierhart/MiLB.com

Burlington LHP – Danny Duffy – 17 Starts, 81.2 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

With an 8.49 ERA after three starts, Duffy didn’t give up more than three runs in any of his final 14 starts while allowing just 15 runs in 70 innings against 84 K’s

Lexington RHP – Yefri Del Rosario – 15 Starts, 79 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

After a 10.45 ERA in his first three starts, Del Rosario pitched his final 13 outings with just two starts of four runs allowed while giving up just 16 earned runs in his final 74.2 innings including his one shutout playoff starts against 68 K’s

The football player converting to full-time baseball

CF/LF- David Lough – Aside from Moose, a big breakout prospect for the Bees was a former football player who showed off his athleticism in the outfield while hitting .268/.329/.455.
CF/LF Brewer Hicklen – It was Hicklen who led the Lexington team in OPS and stolen bases, having a breakout season after playing baseball while accepting a football scholarship at UAB. He finished at .307/.378/.552.

Both teams added players to help them make their playoff runs with Burlington adding Johnny Giavotella to the top of their lineup along with a fireballing right-hander named Kelvin Herrera earning a promotion from rookie level Burlington, NC getting a bump to the Iowa roster in mid-August. Herrera gave the Bees six innings of two-run ball in his only playoff start while Gio helped carry the Bees offense in the playoffs with a hit in all six games highlighted by five hits, five runs scored and five RBIs with a pair of home runs in the two-game championship series. Meanwhile, the Legends received multiple late-season additions in Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, and Kyle Isbel just to name the 2018 draftees. The two drafted pitchers gave up just three combined runs in their four playoff starts while Isbel chipped in with a .779 OPS in his 39 minor league games.

The teams compare as a whole statistically, with the ’08 Bees having a slight advantage in team ERA 3.49 to 3.61 compared to the Legends advantage in offensive OPS .733 to .722 while scoring 65 more runs. One can see a major difference in strikeouts on the offensive end with the Legends striking out 304 more times during the season. That number didn’t translate on the pitching side however, with the Legends staff striking out just eight more hitters in an extra 17 innings thrown.

Photo via Lexington Legends IG

These comparisons don’t do the Legends a lot of favors as the team was very deep in talent, winning a championship despite their top prospect, Seuly Matias, missing most of the second half of the season. In addition to Matias, the Legends lost Carlos Hernandez who had a sub-3 ERA during his final 10 starts before encountering injury. Comparing the two teams, the Legends starting pitching appears far deeper with Lynch, Kowar, Del Rosario and Hernandez leading the way compared to Burlington’s staff that added Herrera very late to Duffy and one of their better pitchers during the season, Danny Gutierrez. One of the more talented arms on the staff was Juan Abreu who was lost via a free agency snafu by the Royals and made seven appearances with the 2011 Astros. While the gap in terms of pitching does favor Lexington, the gap offensively seems rather large with Pratto, Matias, Isbel and MJ Melendez leading the way while getting All-Star contributions from Sebastian Rivero and a quality season from Hicklen.

Team to team, I give the edge to Lexington as would former major leaguer and Bees alum Clint Robinson, who scouts for another organization, saying that the overall talent on the Lexington club is by far better. “Lexington was better in nearly every facet of the game minus the infield.” That said if the Royals get three established major leaguers like Moose, Duffy, and Herrera alongside four other major league contributors from this squad they will be well ahead of the game.

MLB Contributors on the ’08 Bees
Danny Duffy
Kelvin Herrera
Mike Moustakas
Clint Robinson
Johnny Giavotella
David Lough
Juan Abreu

Featured Photo was taken from the Bees Blog

Follow me on Twitter @ClintScoles for information from Royals instructs next week.

We saw another dominant performance by a Legends starter, this time RHP Jackson Kowar (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K), who followed up his Sept 5^th win vs. the visiting Rome Braves in the first round of the playoffs (5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K) with another excellent showing. Kowar landed 67% of his pitches for strikes (69 pitches, 46 strikes), sat 94-95 mph with his fastball and touched 96 several times throughout the night. He made it look effortless.

Following Kowar, LHP Marcelo Martinez put the hammer down with a fastball that seemed anything but. Sitting at 87-89 mph and pairing it with a breaking ball at 75-77, he seemed to mystify Lakewood batters over two scoreless innings (1 H, 0 BB, 4 K). After giving up a lead-off single to Simon Muzziotti, Jake Scheiner struck out swinging on a pitch near the heart of the plate, Rodolfo Duran popped out to Nick Pratto, And Jhailyn Ortiz flew out to CF Kyle Isbel. All three batters made outs on pitches that cut well into the outer third of the strike zone and just about belt-level.

Martinez continued to live on the outer third of the plate in the seventh, breezing through Madison Stokes, Dalton Guthrie, and Jose Antequera, and all in or very close to the same part of the strike zone in which he set up residence in the sixth.

Janser Lara hit a speed bump in the eighth, giving up a lead-off single to Matt Vierling on an 0-2 pitch that caught an awful lot of the plate. Muzziotti grounded out to Cristian Perez on a waist-high pitch but moved Vierling up to second. After Scheiner flew out to center on a pitch right down Broadway, Duran turned hard on a middle-in pitch and dropped it over the left-field wall and cut Lexington’s lead to three.

Visions of Monday night danced in our heads.

The Legends’ batters went down in order in the bottom of the eighth. The top of the ninth brought Tad Ratliff (whom I am tempted to nickname “Bulldog”) to the bump. Ratliff came right at lead-off batter Maton, who swung at a (seemingly) fat pitch, but only managed to ground out to Aracena. Stokes was next, and he went down easily on three swinging strikes (all outer-third). Guthrie started his own brief two-out rally, singling past Perez, but Antequera lost a six-pitch battle to the Lexington closer to close out the victory for the Legends.

On the offensive side, Lexington started off with MJ Melendez‘s first-pitch homer to opposite field off of Lakewood lefty Kyle Young. Pratto walked and swiped second after several pick-off attempts, then Brewer Hicklen walked behind him. Third baseman Manny Olloque grounded into a 6-4-3 double play, ending the threat.

Beyond a hard-hit single by C Sebastian Rivero in the bottom of the second, the Legends had nothing going in the inning. However, the third had Isbel singling to center and moving to third on a Pratto double to right, an inside pitch that wasn’t inside quite enough. When Hicklen grounded to Maton at short, he reached first when Maton went for the easy out at third. Pratto was erased, but Isbel scored on the play, making it 2-0, Lexington.

The fourth inning was a quiet one, and other than an Aracena base knock to left, there was no action of which to speak. Isbel grounded out to move Aracena into scoring position, but Melendez struck out on a 1-2 pitch that just nicked the low-outside corner, and Pratto flew out to center on a 2-2 outside pitch.

It was all outs for the Legends in the sixth, with Hicklen, Olloque, and Perez going down in order. The (lucky) seventh was another story.

Cal Jones led it off with an 0-2 worm-burner right through the middle of the infield, and after Rivero and Aracena both flew out, Isbel continued what became a two-out rally when he sent a base hit on the same path through the infield and into center, moving Jones to second. Melendez followed suit with his own single, this on a two-strike count, and Jones scored. When Muzziotti tried for Jones at home and Duran couldn’t corral the throw, both runners moved into scoring position. Lakewood reliever Julian Garcia let one fly and Duran couldn’t get to it, allowing Isbel to score. Pratto tacked on a run when he scored Melendez on a right-field single, and that would be it for Garcia. RHP James McArthur (1 1/3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K) took over and put out the fire when he struck out Hicklen looking.

By now, it was 5-2, Lexington, and the last home game of the season at Whitaker Bank Ball Park would end that way.

With the series tied at one, the Legends hit the road for Lakewood, NJ, to play Game Three of the Championship tomorrow at 7 PM in the BlueClaw’s First Energy Stadium. LHP Daniel Lynch faces RHP Andrew Brown (6-3, 2.10 ERA, 14 appearances, 68 2/3 IP, 49 H, 2 HRA, 16 BB, 58 K).

• I’m both surprised and not surprised that Frank Schwindel didn’t get a callup when the Omaha season ended. I had heard some things a couple weeks ago that indicated to me that he had a really good shot to be in the big leagues, so in that way, it’s surprising. But then when I think about it a little more, it’s really not. I’ve mentioned in this space that even with what O’Hearn has done, I still think Schwindel was the more deserving player at the time to get called up, but he was passed over. He also was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last year, coming off a .329/.349/.541 season and was passed over by every team. Yes, the Royals have some easy 40-man moves they could make to get him in the big leagues now, but looking forward, there will be a squeeze on the roster after the season when 60-day DL guys need to be activated. They have two pending free agents on the entire roster and a nearly full roster. Add in the four guys on the 60-day DL who will need to be added back and there’s already a crunch because subtract those two free agents and add the four DL guys and you’re over 41. Yes, there is absolutely dead weight. You could DFA guys like Nate Karns and Jesse Hahn and try to bring them back on minor league deals. Cheslor Cuthbert appears to have played his last game for the Royals. Andres Machado, Burch Smith, Ramon Torres, Paulo Orlando and Bubba Starling are easy drops if you need the space, but they’ll also need 40-man space for a Rule 5 guy next year if they go that route or any free agents they sign to shore up the bullpen. My guess here is that with O’Hearn hitting the way he has and Dozier stepping it up that the Royals decided to roll the dice and assume they could keep Schwindel without making their 40-man decisions any tougher over the next six months. I’d have brought him up, but it’s easy to see why they didn’t.
• Acquiring Ben Lively from the Phillies is a vaguely interesting move for a team that is evaluating starters the rest of the season and probably into next year. He’s probably more Sam Gaviglio than Jakob Junis, but it’s still a worthwhile gamble to take for a team that isn’t going anywhere for a couple seasons. He had his moments last year for the Phillies with a 4.26 ERA in 88.2 innings, but he didn’t strike out enough hitters and had a basically appalling seven percent swinging strike rate. This year, he wasn’t especially good, but the sample is skewed by one of his five starts being a massive disaster. He does a pretty good job of throwing strikes and seems like a guy who can get you deep into a game occasionally. His fastball isn’t special, sitting 91-92 and maybe touching 94 at times and his bread and better is his slider, which has been good for a 36.4 percent whiff percentage. The biggest issue I see is that his pitches tend to flatten out, which is both good and bad because it may be a mechanical issue that I’m certainly not smart enough to figure out. Or it may be that he’s just not good enough. I don’t mean to make it seem like he has to be great to justify the acquisition or anything, but hey, it’d be nice. Like I said, this is exactly what they should be doing, so I’m curious to see if they just liked him for depth or if someone sees something in him they believe they can unlock.
• Lexington won their first playoff game on Wednesday night, and it was really fun to watch because of how they won it. First, Jackson Kowar had a really nice playoff debut, going five innings in just 57 pitches and striking out five without a walk. After striking out just eight batters in his first 17 innings (with 10 walks), he let it fly and now in his last four starts, he’s gone 14.1 innings with 10 hits allowed, two runs and just two walks with 19 strikeouts. That’s what you want from a top draft pick. And to do it on a playoff stage is impressive. But maybe even more impressive is what Nick Pratto is doing. He went 2-for-3 with a home run and two stolen bases in his first playoff game as a pro, which is just maintaining what he’s done since the start of August. In 32 games, he’s hit .374/.439/.659 with 10 doubles, two triples and seven home runs. His BABIP is insane at well over .400, but it’s so nice to see him breaking out. I think his start to the season really took him off the radar, and he’s doing everything he can to get back on it. I’m not sure much would surprise me with him, but it’s nice to see him performing so well.
• Man, what a weird year for Jorge Bonifacio. He looked like one of the two best players on the team in spring training (with Whit), then obviously got popped for the PED suspension that cost him half the season. Then he comes back and hits .288/.351/.451 in 13 games before the break and it looked like he would build on some nice things in his rookie year and that very good spring. Then he spent 16 games just ice cold, hitting .109/.210/.164 and it sort of looked like maybe he was actually a product of those PEDs and he wasn’t worth figuring out the roster for moving forward. So naturally, he’s hit .292/.365/.431 since and has been more than serviceable offensively (though with much lighter power than you’d like). The Statcast data for him isn’t good. His average exit velocity is way down. His hard hit rate is way down. His barrel rate is way down. His launch angle is way up, but not in a good way. Some underlying numbers, though, are quite good. His walk rate is up by about one percent. His strikeout rate is down by about two percent. He’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and making contact on more pitches inside the strike zone. One of the biggest differences in his batted ball profile is that he’s pulling way more pitches and not using the middle of the field as much. And he’s hitting considerably worse on balls he pulled. In 2017, he hit .500 with a 1.118 SLG on pulled balls. This year? It’s still obviously impressive, but his average is down to .425 with a .750 SLG. I’m not sure that means he shouldn’t be working to pull the ball as much, but it is interesting. Either way, it’s a weird year and I’m not sure we actually learned anything about him, which kind of stinks.

They face off against the Rome Braves (71-62 overall, 40-29 in the first half), the first-half champion of the Southern Division in the South Atlantic League. The Legends (76-60 overall, 39-29 in the second half) finished the year as the Southern Division second-half champs, clinching in the first game of a four-game series at Greenville to end the regular season.

Both the Legends and the Braves are young teams, with the average age of each team’s batters under 21 years old. The Legends finished first in the league in runs scored (682; 4.98 R/G), fourth in hits (1151), second in homers (137), first in steals (164), third in team average (.258), and second in OPS (.733). Rome finished seventh in runs scored (578), third in hits (1176), sixth in homers (89), eleventh in steals (78), third in team average (.258; tied with Lexington), and fifth in OPS (.699).

Lexington’s pitchers finished seventh in team ERA (3.62), sixth in hits allowed (1119), second in most HR allowed (129), eleventh in fewest BB allowed (349), and sixth in strikeouts (1147). Overall, Rome finished in ninth in team ERA (3.74), seventh in hits allowed (1085), eighth in HR allowed (86), first in fewest walks allowed (422), and seventh in strikeouts (1143).

By now, the overall talent level on this Lexington roster is no secret, and they took on even more prospects in the last couple of months of the season. Their pitching staff received a significant boost. The loss of RHP Carlos Hernandez (6-5, 3.29 ERA in 79 1/3 IP, 82 K, 3.57 K/BB ratio) might have been felt more acutely had the Legends not added pitchers like LHP Daniel Lynch (5-1, 1.58 ERA in 40 IP, 47 K, 6 BB), RHP Jackson Kowar (3.42 ERA in 26 1/3 IP, 12 BB, 22 K), and LHP JC Cloney (2.73 ERA in 29 2/3 IP, 9 BB, 18 K) was like adding nitrous to an engine that was slowly, but consistently, revving faster as the season came to a close.

Starting Game One will be RHP and 2018 1st-round pick Jackson Kowar, who has made nine short appearances for the Legends this year. Over 26 1/3 innings, Kowar racked up 22 strikeouts against 12 walks. His 19 hits allowed, even over this short sample size, is evidence of his ability to command a plus fastball in the low-to-mid 90s along with a plus change-up in the low-80s that shows good tail and sink, and is delivered with precisely the same arm speed, slot, and release as his fastball when it’s at its best. He mixes in a slurvy breaking ball that is solid enough for a third pitch, but his command with it is still somewhat inconsistent. The Royals have kept his time on the mound short as a precautionary measure against overwork, so a four-inning start is a definite possibility.

He will face off against RHP Alan Rangel (4.09 ERA, 125 1/3 IP, 31 BB, 105 K), who posted a sterling 2.12 ERA in six starts over the month of August, but got knocked around in away games (3.14 ERA at home, 5.05 ERA on the road), and gave up six runs (five earned) and two homers over five innings in his only appearance at Whitaker Bank Ballpark. Perhaps also of note, he allowed a .810 OPS vs. RHH, while lefties had a tougher time (.668 over 57 PA).

RHP Tad Ratliff (1.68 ERA, 48 1/3 IP, 53 K, 10 BB, 10 SV) has been outstanding out of the pen, this year, and is the de facto closer. RHP Janser Lara (3.41 ERA, 23 appearances, 8 starts, 66 IP, 28 BB, 75 K) has steadily improved over the last few months, and can give the Legends a long stint in relief or start the game, though he has been outstanding as a reliever (1.98 ERA in 36 1/3 relief innings; 5.91 ERA in 35 innings as a starter). He brings a fastball that sits 94-95 and a tight slider around 83-84 with good tilt. Lara struck out 25 batters in 18 relief innings in August, so he ended on a high note. 2017’s 26th-round selection RHP Garrett Suchey (1.36 ERA in 21 appearances, 33 IP, 4 BB, 30 K) was a lock-down arm in his professional debut season. A 15th-round pick last year, LHP Robert Garcia (13 appearances, 24 IP, 31 K, 11 BB) and RHP Daniel Duarte (6 appearances, 11 2/3 IP, 11 K, 5 BB) show early signs of promise.

This is a quick look at some of the key batters heading into the first round of the SAL Playoffs.

1B Nick Pratto (.280 BA, .786 OPS 33 2B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 22 SB in 127 games) is still a month away from his 20^th birthday. That alone says a lot about Pratto’s talent. While he hit the wall in June (.225 BA, .589 OPS in 25 games), he slowly picked up steam in July (.258, .717 OPS in 25 games) and caught fire in August (.358, 1.005 OPS, 20 RBI in 28 games). The steals were a little surprise, but he runs well enough, especially for his position.

C MJ Melendez made a lot of noise this year, becoming the single-season leader in home runs for teen-aged Class-A catchers. Sounds like a lot to say, but 19-year-old catchers don’t typically push 20 homers in their full-season debut. Melendez finished with 26 doubles, nine triples, and 19 homers, driving in 73 runs (.251 BA, .814 OPS in 111 games). In 73 games behind the dish, he threw out 42 percent of base thieves, a dramatic increase from 2017’s 26 percent, though last year he made only thirty appearances at catcher. While he did commit 13 errors (w/ 8 passed balls), there’s no reason for concern there; Melendez’s calling card is his agility, arm strength and glove work, and his defense will improve over time. He’s highly athletic, moves very well (not only for his position), and is an above-average base-runner. By all appearances, Melendez is a safe bet to make it to Kauffman, perhaps by 2021.

OF Brewer Hicklen (.307, 18 doubles, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 29 SB in 82 games at Lexington) returned to the Legends after a 22-game stint in High-A Wilmington that didn’t pan out for him (.211, .573 OPS in 22 games), and the timing could not have been better. With RF Seuly Matias going to the DL because of a thumb laceration, incurred while moving his bags from the baggage compartment on the team bus, the team was going to need that boost to the offense. Hicklen does a lot of things well; he covers lots of ground in the outfield with sure-handed glove work (71 games in OF, 2 errors, 1.87 RF/9), he squares up the ball frequently and has shown a great deal of pop (18 doubles, 3 triples, 17 homers), and he steals bags fearlessly. It seemed that, once he swiped second, he was almost a lock to try for (likely successfully) third immediately afterward. Isbel was a similar runner, in terms of style and aggression. Hicklen also brings added energy to this lineup, though it’s not as if they lack for it. At 22 years old, with his current tool profile, it’s safe to say that his performance at Wilmington is no concern.

SS Cristian Perez (.278, 14 doubles, 37 RBI, 10 SB) isn’t a power bat, but makes a lot of contact and shows a very good eye at the plate. Perez has struck out a total of 94 times over his 194 career games (784 PA), only 43 this year, and while he isn’t likely to walk much (53 BB, career; 11 in 2018), he doesn’t need to. He puts the ball in play with regularity, and aside from a .221 BA/.566 OPS in 24 games in July, Perez has been one of them more consistent hitters on this team. A .348 BA/.756 OPS in June certainly made an impression, during which he struck out only six times in 91 plate appearances. Yet another nineteen-year-old player on this Legends roster, Perez had little difficulty adjusting to Class-A competition. A .252 average vs. RHP (.354 in 92 PA vs. LHP) is acceptable, and should improve in 2019. Making 14 appearances at third base after the loss of Dennicher Carrasco, Perez sometimes struggled with the throw to first, but he also made some low throws from short (10 errors in 69 games at SS, 3 errors in 14 games at 3B). Second base may be in his future, though he could certainly gain arm strength over the next year or two.

Speaking of second base, Ricky Aracena (.261 BA, 10 doubles, 40 RBI, 17 steals in 95 games) is slowly building on the promise that led some international scouts to label him the next Rafael Furcal. With almost no present power of which to speak, Aracena’s value lies primarily in his glove. Coming into 2018, he already had 30 games at short with Lexington, and has been learning second base on the fly since SS Jeison Guzman has been getting the bulk of the time at Aracena’s old position. He is taking reasonably well to the keystone (94 games at 2B, 16 errors, 4.21 RF/9), and has the quickness and footwork to settle in permanently. Listed at 5’8”, which may be generous, there is still room for added strength.

CF Kyle Isbel made his Class-A debut on July 19^th and promptly made his presence known. Isbel batted .342 (.984 OPS) over 10 July games, with five extra-base hits and six steals. He also struck out only four times in his 44 plate appearances. August was more of the same, with a dip in Isbel’s average (.286) and OPS (.750), but he tacked on nine doubles, two homers, ten RBI and six more steals. His strikeouts spiked (36 in 121 PA), even though his pitch selection appeared to be advanced for Low-A. Also intriguing was his lack of a platoon split vs. LHP (.354 between Idaho Falls and Lexington in 89 PA, .314 in 204 PA vs. RHP). He demolished rookie-league pitching to the tune of a 1.063 OPS in 119 PA over 25 games.

UT Manny Olloque made his return to Lexington after starting the year in Triple-A Omaha (.544 OPS in 9 games), then heading to the Pioneer League and the Idaho Falls Chukars, where he performed well enough (.317 BA, 1.006 OPS in 11 games). Olloque’s power seems to have improved since last year, as he popped 21 XBH in 48 games with the Legends. The BB/K ratio is atrocious (7 BB, 67 K), but he did seem more comfortable at the plate this year. He definitely slowed down in August, with his OPS dropping 181 points from July (.690 in August, .871 in July), but he finished on the upswing, tallying a .787 OPS in his final 10 games (3 XBH, 10 RBI).

C Sebastian Rivero (.258, 16 doubles, 7 HR, 34 RBI, .692 OPS in 77 games) had a June to forget (.167 BA, .406 OPS in 17 games), but ranged in OPS between .597 (August) and .898 (July) the rest of the year. In 60 appearances behind the plate, Rivero threw out 35% of base-runners, and made only five errors in that time-span (8 passed balls). He took well to the backup role, but certainly could progress further than that in the coming years.

This is bound to be an exciting series. Lexington hasn’t seen playoff baseball in a very long time, and the team is running half a dozen promotions for this series opener, so the place will likely be packed to the gills. More to come after the completion of Game One.

BPKC Hitter of the Day: MJ Melendez 2-4 2 HR, 2 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day: Stephen Greenlees 3.2 IP 2 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 6 K 0-4 GO-FO 50p/34k

Augusta GreenJackets 5 Lexington Legends 4

Lexington starter Jackson Kowar wasn’t quite as sharp as he had been in his previous two starts as the right-hander gave up a run in his two and one-third innings of work. The righty, after working a perfect first inning, gave up a hit and a walk in the second before getting out of the jam. In his final inning of work, Kowar struckout the first hitter allowed a single and walked a hitter before being lifted for Garrett Davila who allowed one of the runners around to score. After a couple of scoreless innings, Davila ran into trouble in the sixth inning with a single and a walk sandwiched around a couple of outs. Manager Scott Thorman elected to go to the bullpen with Robert Garcia but the power lefty struggled with his control, walking a pair of batters and uncorking a wild pitch and a wild throw that allowed two runs to come in to tie the game. After a third walk, another wild pitch gave Augusta the lead. Outfielder Brewer Hicklen connected on a solo home run the very next inning to tie the game. It was Lexington’s third home run of the night having already received the 18th and 19th home runs of the season from MJ Melendez earlier in the game. Tied 4-4, the Legends ran into some misfortune as a Nick Pratto throw to second in an attempt to double off a runner would bounce off the back of Heliot Ramos, allowing him to get to third base. One hitter later a sacrifice fly would give Augusta the lead. That lead held up until the ninth where Kyle Isbel would make a play for the fourth home run of the game for Lexington but his fly and the Legends comeback bid would die at the wall to end the game.

Brewer Hicklen: 3-4 HR, 2b, 2 RBI
Nick Pratto: 1-3 R, BB, 2K, SB (21)
Jackson Kowar: 2.1 IP 2 H 1 R 1 ER 2 BB 3 K 3-1 GO-FO 51p/30k

Lynchburg Hillcats 10 Wilmington Blue Rocks 7

The Wilmington bullpen couldn’t hold a two-run lead and may have put the team’s season on the brink with their loss on Tuesday. After starter Andres Sotillet’s struggles continued with five runs allowed in the first two innings the Rocks offense countered with seven runs of their own including a pair of two-run home runs by Emmanuel Rivera and D.J. Burt. Despite that 7-5 lead reliever Corey Ray and Anthony Bender struggled in the seventh innings, giving up a solo home run, two walks, and three consecutive singles during the four run inning. That lead would be enough with Wilmington’s offense getting stymied over the last four innings in the loss. The loss put Wilmington five games back with just seven games to play.

Emmanuel Rivera: 3-5 HR, 2 RBI, CS
D.J. Burt: 1-4 HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB (31)
Meibrys Viloria: 1-4 2R, BB

Tulsa Drillers 6 NW Arkansas Naturals 5

The Naturals Scott Blewett struggled early with three runs allowed in the first inning before settling in for an eight-inning start. The big righty would give up two more runs in that time but each time the offense would have the answer, scoring single runs in the first three innings and a pair in the seventh to tie things back up. Tied 5-5 in the ninth, reliever Franco Terrero failed to get an out, giving up a pair of singles before committing a throwing error on a safety squeeze which allowed Tulsa to walk the game off for the win. The loss pushed the Naturals season one step closer to ending, now 4.5 games back of the Drillers for first place with seven games to play.

Erick Mejia: 1-4 2R, 2b, BB, SB (34)
Samir Duenez: 1-3 RBI, BB
Jecksson Flores: 1-2 R, RBI, BB, SB (26)

Colorado Springs Sky Sox 4 Omaha Storm Chasers 3

Reliever Richard Lovelady blew his third save of the season after allowing two runs in the seventh inning in the first game of the series with Colorado Springs. The two runs put Omaha down 4-3 after Frank Schwindel and Donnie Dewees had hit a pair of home runs to give the Chasers the lead. Down 4-3 in the ninth Omaha would move the tying run 90 feet away but Jorge Soler struckout to end the game and eliminate the Chasers from the playoff race.

Nicky Lopez: 0-3 BB
Frank Schwindel: 2-4 HR
Donnie Dewees: 2-4 HR, 2 RBI

Bluefield Blue Jays 5 Burlington Royals 4

The Royals starter Malcolm Van Buren’s struggles continued on Tuesday night. After working three shutout innings that featured six strikeouts, his control wavered in the fourth. A pair of walks sandwiched around a double and a single ended his day with one out in the inning and eventually four runs to his line. Those runs and another in the sixth inning off reliever Jose DeLeon put Burlington behind 5-0. A three-run rally in the sixth inning that featured RBI hits by Eric Cole and Brhet Bewley and another run in the seventh got the Royals within a run but they were unable to get the last run in the loss.

Eric Cole: 1-4 R, RBI
Brhet Bewley: 2-3 RBI, SB (7)
Isaiah Henry: 1-4 R 3K

Grand Junction Rockies 5 Idaho Falls Chukars 3

Playing for a chance to take the wildcard lead in Pioneer League playoffs, the Chukars didn’t get a good start from Kris Bubic. The Stanford lefty worked just three innings, walking five hitters and hitting another in that time while also giving up three hits to allow four runs in that time. Those runs countered Chase Vallot’s two-run home run in the second inning. The Chukars scored in the fourth frame to pull within a run but could get no closer in the loss.

Chase Vallot: 1-3 2R, HR, 2 RBI
Jose Caraballo: 1-3 BB
Kris Bubic: 3 IP 3 H 4 R 4 ER 5 BB 3 K 2-3 GO-FO 72p/41k

Tuesday Boxscores

• Ryan O’Hearn has done a really nice job at the plate for the Royals since he was recalled in late July even if he probably hasn’t played quite enough since coming to the big leagues. His power has been big enough that he has put himself in a position to be a key member of the DongTown City Council in 2019. And I’m really happy that he’s done this, but I still can’t help but wonder if the Royals made the wrong choice in choosing between he and Frank Schwindel. For my money, they probably should have just moved on from Lucas Duda once the deadline passed and called them both up, but I at least worry a bit about the message sent when they called up one guy who was so outperformed by another guy when the situations were identical as far as needing a spot on the 40-man for either of them. While seasonal age makes it seem like Schwindel is two years older than O’Hearn, he really isn’t. He’s about a year and a month older and their AAA numbers aren’t even comparable. O’Hearn hit .243/.324/.423 in 869 plate appearances while Schwindel had hit .303/.340/.517 in 907 plate appearances through Wednesday. I appreciate the Royals looking beyond the numbers, but I don’t think it’s a great look for them to choose O’Hearn over Schwindel. Like I said, I’m glad O’Hearn is producing and I think they should both be up, but even with his early success, I think Schwindel should have been the move from the start. That’s probably unpopular now that O’Hearn has shown so much power early, but it’s how I felt at the time and there’s no reason to change.
• Brandon Maurer is so damn frustrating. Since maybe the world’s most predictable blowup against the Tigers right after the break, he’s now pitched in 11 games, going one inning each time and allowing just one run on eight hits with 16 strikeouts and seven walks. The walks are still high, but he’s routinely hitting the upper 90s on the radar gun and has hit 100 at least a couple times that I’ve seen. This is exactly why he keeps getting chance after chance and why the Royals have been so hesitant to move on from him. That isn’t to say that I believe he’ll actually ever be consistent enough for it to matter, but it’s hard to watch him right now and think there isn’t a spot for him on a bad team next year as well. Which, well, that’s infuriating to me in a weird way. I guess it’s nice that he’s found himself, though I think we all wish that maybe he did either at this time last year after he was acquired or maybe before the deadline so he could be moved. Still, he’s a big time power arm and maybe if he can finish strong, the Royals can fool another team into giving him a shot in the offseason and recoup a little value for him.
• To give a little update on the Royals 2018 draft, I went and compiled the numbers and as a whole, I think there’s some definite statistical success so far. The pitchers have combined for 532.1 innings and struck out 595 while walking 208. That’s 10.1 strikeouts per nine and 3.5 walks. They’ve allowed just 27 home runs, which is kind of crazy. Of course, it’s worth mentioning that many of them are 21 and up in rookie ball, so they should be doing this. But of course, Daniel Lynch has been a revelation, now in Lexington, and Jackson Kowar has been outstanding his last two starts. On the whole, I’m satisfied, but need to something big out of Brady Singer when he finally pitches and I’d like to see Kris Bubic move up to get a couple starts in Low-A as well. On the offensive side, there isn’t the same success, but it’s not all bad. They’re hitting .278/.365/.410 with a 10.8 percent walk rate on the whole. Not much power here, obviously, but they’ve stolen 79 bases in 102 attempts, which is quality for hitters in their first tastes of pro ball. Like the pitchers, it’s quite a few older prospects in rookie ball, but the standout is obviously Kyle Isbel, who was hitting .335/.402/.522 across two levels through Wednesday. Something not often talked about with Isbel is that he has 24 steals in 29 attempts, so there’s some value there. Nathan Eaton is another guy doing very well, but it’s important to remember he’s 21 in rookie ball in a big time hitter’s park and league. Still, .350/.434/.568 will get you to at least take notice.
• This is more of a baseball in general point and I think this has stopped a bit, but success of players like J.D. Martinez has made it seem so simple just to completely change your approach at the plate and, if you have the physical tools, become a quality (or better) big league hitter. I was just thinking about when I read an article in The Athletic yesterday penned by Lars Anderson (subscribe here if you haven’t already, yes I get a gift card but you get a discount too) about how he went to the same coaches Martinez did and was released later that year. It’s just that there’s so much to hitting that I think those who have succeeded in completely altering their approach have somehow made it seem easy to do and you wonder why every player doesn’t. Look at a guy like Whit Merrifield. He’s changed his approach a couple times just in his short time in the big leagues. Last season it resulted in more home runs, while this season the home run power isn’t quite where it was before, but he’s walking a ton more. The Royals will welcome in the Indians this weekend and Yonder Alonso was a poster child for the launch angle revolution last season. He’s been fine this season, but after a really hot start last year, he’s become decent enough, but not great. His .165 ISO is right around league average, which is an improvement over before last year, but not elite or anything and a big reason why he didn’t get a mega contract even coming off a breakout year. Anyway, that’s my get off my lawn moment of the week.

BPKC Hitter of the Day: Ismaldo Rodriguez 2-4 2 HR

BPKC Pitcher of the Day: Jackson Kowar 3 IP 0 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 6 K 0-3 GO-FO 41p/26k 

Hagerstown Suns 3 Lexington Legends 2

Royals 1st round pick Jackson Kowar had his most impressive outing yet even in an abbreviated appearance. The former Florida Gator pitcher worked three perfect innings on 41 pitches, striking out six of the nine hitters he faced. Five of the six strikeouts were swinging as Kowar earned eight swinging strikes among his 26 strikes thrown before handing things off to Garrett Davila. The two teams exchanged one run with the Legends scoring in the fourth inning on a Manny Olloque double before Hagerstown answered with a two-out rbi single in the fifth inning. The Suns broke that tie in the eighth inning with three consecutive hits off Davila which led to a pair of runs. The Legends threatened in the bottom of the ninth pulling within one but Cristian Perez would get put out at the plate for the second out before Kyle Isbel stranded the tying run in scoring position with a groundout to end the game.

MJ Melendez: 2-4 2b
Nick Pratto: 1-3 BB
Brewer Hicklen: 1-4 R, 2 SB

Springfield Cardinals 4 NW Arkansas Naturals 3 F/11

The Naturals entered Thursday with a small opening to make the playoffs, trailing first-place Tulsa by 4.5 games with 13 left to play including a five-game series with the Drillers. With little margin for error, each game would prove to be extremely important. With that small margin, the Naturals send Scott Blewett to the mound a start after being named Texas League Pitcher of the Week. The big right-hander wasn’t as efficient as last time out, but none the less managed to work around a bases-loaded threat in the third inning to give the Naturals five scoreless innings before yielding to the bullpen. Scoreless until the seventh inning when Grant Gavin gave up a solo home run to Chris Chinea. The Naturals answered that 1-0 deficit with two runs in the eighth with Alex Liddi’s RBI double and Alfredo Escalera’s sac fly that brought Liddi home. That lead held up until the ninth when a one out walk issued by Franco Terrero came around in the ninth to even the score. In extras the two teams exchanged free runners scoring in the tenth and again in the eleventh the Cardinals scored. In the Naturals half though the Naturals were unable to push their free runner along, letting a winnable game get away. The Naturals missed an opportunity to get a game closer in the standings after Tulsa lost again.

Alex Liddi: 2-5 R, 2b, RBI
Scott Blewett: 5 IP 3 H 0 R 0 ER 2 BB 3 K 6-4 GO-FO 83p/56k
Kelvin Gutierrez: 0-4 R, BB

Oklahoma City Dodgers 3 Omaha Storm Chasers 2 

The Chasers couldn’t muster enough offense to help out Trevor Oaks despite another quality start from the right-hander. The Dodgers plated a run in each of the first three innings against Oaks as they piled up eight hits in six innings against him. The Dodgers scored via a wild pitch in the first, a gift of outfielder Brian Goodwin’s error in the second and three singles in the third to take a 3-1 lead after three innings. Shortstop Nicky Lopez countered with a solo home run in the fourth inning to pull within a run. From there the two teams were held scoreless and the Chasers only true threat in the seventh with Donnie Dewees on second fizzled out with with a pair of outs to put away the threat and ultimately the game for Omaha.

Nicky Lopez: 1-4 HR
Josh Staumont: 1 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 1 K 1-1 GO-FO 15p/8k
Richard Lovelady: 1 IP 0 H 0 R 0 BB 0 BB 2 K 15p/11k

Johnson City Cardinals 10 Burlington Royals 8

After piling up 39 hits in the last two games, but the Royals added on 15 more on Thursday night against the Cardinals. It wasn’t enough. Three first two pitchers the Royals sent to the mound gave up 10 runs through the first seven innings, putting the Cardinals up 10-5. The Royals didn’t threaten in the ninth, plating three runs before dropping the game.

Juan Carlos Negret: 3-5 2R, 2b
Rafael Romero: 3-5 3 RBI
Jose Marquez: 2-5

Idaho Falls 2 Billings Mustangs 1

The Chukars and Mustangs were limited to just three runs in this one as the two starters held up their end of the bargain. Billings starter Ricky Salinas limited Idaho Falls to just two hits in six and one-third innings. One of those hits accounted for a run for Idaho Falls as Reed Rohlman connected on his sixth home run in the second inning to give the home squad a 1-0 lead. After Connor Mayes gave the Chukars six scoreless innings, reliever Jaret Hellinger gave up a run to even the score in the eighth inning. Fortunately, the Chukars quickly answered with a double by Hunter Strong that scored Nick Hutchins in the bottom half of the inning to take the lead back. With the slim lead closer, Daniel James answered the bell in the ninth with a scoreless inning to secure the save.

Connor Mayes: 6 IP 7 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 5 K 3-6 GO-FO 85p/60k
Reed Rohlman: 1-3 HR, BB
Hunter Strong: 1-3 2b, RBI

Thursday Boxscores

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CATCHERS

Salvador Perez ($13 million) – He’s still going to start, and maybe he won’t play every single day, but he’ll get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate.
Predicted Line: .231/.277/.382

Meibrys Viloria ($575,000) – He’s keeping this seat warm for M.J. Melendez in 2022, but he does a nice job as a backup catcher. He’s not much of a hitter, but he’s fantastic behind the plate and has a really good arm.
Predicted Line: .229/.286/.341

INFIELD

Kelvin Gutierrez ($575,000) – I’m not sure why, but I believe in Gutierrez and think he actually becomes a really solid third baseman for this club for a few years, a la Joe Randa. He’s sure-handed and has some quality bat control. The power seems to be coming a bit.
Predicted Line: .291/.343/.446

Nicky Lopez ($800,000) – Probably the best batsman in the organization, Lopez has a chance to be the team’s second baseman for a long time. He can handle shortstop, but a double play combo with Lopez’s steady hand at second is a nice thing to think about.
Predicted Line: .312/.366/.427

Adalberto Mondesi ($1,400,000) – I don’t think he’ll be a star, but he’ll be a step or two below. He makes all the spectacular plays, boots some of the easy ones and steals a ton of bases. The power potential is always intriguing. The low OBP is always infuriating.
Predicted Line: .277/.304/.465

Frank Schwindel ($575,000) – Frank the Tank has taken awhile to get his shot, but continuously hitting in Omaha will get him the opportunity to crush lefties at the big league level and platoon with a free agent bat for a bit. I think it’ll work out pretty well for him too.
Predicted Line: .273/.316/.497

Eric Thames ($7,000,000) – The Royals will believe Nick Pratto needs one more year before he’s ready to be a big-time contributor. Of course things can change, but in the interim, they need a bat to play first and Thames represents a bit of a shift in philosophy for the big club.
Predicted Line: .233/.321/.512

OUTFIELD

Aaron Hicks ($14,000,000) – Coming off some solid seasons in New York, the Royals want to find a veteran to patrol center field who won’t require a huge, long commitment, so prior to the 2020 season, they’re going out and picking up Hicks on a three-year deal. Yes, they probably overspent, but it gives them a switch hitter who can handle center or right quite well, depending on the needs of that night. It might seem odd now given all the outfielders in the big leagues or on the way, but on a deal that expires after 2022, it made some sense as a bridge.
Predicted Line: .256/.354/.439

Khalil Lee ($575,000) – Lee will get a shot at a September callup in 2019 and will spend about half the year in the big leagues in 2020. I’m looking toward a strong finish in 2020 to make him ready to play mostly left field in the outfield with the best throwing arms in baseball. As one of five center fielders on the roster, the outfield defense will be stacked and the potential for greatness is way up there.
Predicted Line: .267/.371/.442

Blake Perkins ($575,000) – Another switch hitter who can really go get it, Perkins will get to play sort of the role of Jarrod Dyson in that he’ll probably get into about 110-120 games with a lot as a pinch runner. There won’t be much need for a defensive replacement, but Hicks tends to need some time off here and there, so Perkins can slide in easily in center and can draw a ton of walks when he plays.
Predicted Line: .223/.314/.351

Brett Phillips ($1,300,000) – Still straddling between a piece of the future and a bridge to that future, Phillips will likely get most of 2021 to show that he’s an important cog in the Royals machine. He strikes out too much and the power just isn’t quite where you want it for a guy who is now spending most of his time in a corner, but he’s a solid player who provides a ton of value as a defender at the very least.
Predicted Line: .253/.321/.417

UTILITY

Kyle Isbel ($575,000) – A scorching hot start after he was drafted made it seem like Isbel was on the fast track to the big leagues, but he’s slowed down slightly in Lexington, though not that much. Isbel profiles right now as a fringe-ish starter, but given his ability to handle some infield work, he has a spot on teams with dwindling position player rosters. He can work a walk and has a little pop and good bat to ball skills. If someone goes down, you can do far worse than Isbel filling in.
Predicted Line: .271/.329/.417

STARTING PITCHERS

Danny Duffy ($15,500,000) – This is the last year of Duffy’s deal, and I believe he’ll play the whole thing out with the Royals before moving on. Still effective, but injuries don’t figure to get fewer and farther between as he gets older.
Predicted Line: 7-6, 4.12 ERA, 123.2 IP, 111 H, 102 K, 51 BB, 19 HR

Daniel Lynch ($575,000) – Lynch was not one of my favorite draft picks, but he hit the ground running and has no intentions of looking back. He’ll get a September callup in 2020, a bit like Yordano Ventura in 2013 and then basically force his way into the 2021 rotation with a strong spring. He’s young, so there’ll be hiccups along the way, but he’s a nice addition.
Predicted Line: 12-5, 3.69 ERA, 145.2 IP, 131 H, 139 K, 45 BB, 20 HR

Brady Singer ($575,000) – Singer will get his first shot in 2020 and will show inconsistent results but flashes of potential during his debut and will earn a spot in the big league rotation out of spring training. It’s not all daisies and rainbows though as he will struggle through a bit of an uneven year with way too many home runs allowed.
Predicted Line: 8-13, 5.11 ERA, 171.1 IP, 168 H, 153 K, 49 BB, 30 HR

Jameson Taillon ($7,300,000) – The Royals will see Taillon as their James Shields for the next wave and will do what they can to go get him, giving up quite a few prospects in a trade a lot of people who are a bit more analytically inclined hate because the Royals aren’t ready to win yet, but that a lot of people who are less analytically inclined love because they love getting a top notch big league pitcher.
Predicted Line: 16-6, 2.93 ERA, 212 IP, 181 H, 209 K, 43 BB, 17 HR

Julio Teheran ($17,000,000) – The Royals will count on a bigger park doing wonders for Teheran when he becomes a free agent after the 2019 season as a pitcher who can help headline a rotation with the young guns. For five years and $70 million, the contract will give some memories of the Ian Kennedy deal, but at least Teheran has better stuff.
Predicted Line: 12-12, 4.04 ERA, 201.1 IP, 199 H, 186 K, 63 BB, 28 HR

BULLPEN

Jason Adam ($1,200,000) – Things haven’t gone well for Adam in his big league debut. The home run ball has not been his friend, but it’s not all bad. He’s gotten a lot of strikeouts and done well enough in limiting hits. It’ll take some time, but he’s going to be a solid middle relief type and will be a key part of a very good bullpen in 2021.
Predicted Line: 66 G, 3.78 ERA, 73.1 IP, 58 H, 89 K, 31 BB, 11 HR

Cody Allen ($11,000,000) – The Royals will look to improve their bullpen immediately and they’ll likely be making a similar mistake to the Soria deal in giving Allen three years and $24 million with the 2021 season being the crescendo at $11 million. Still, he’s a Proven Closer™ and the Royals really want that to help fix this bullpen disaster even though he won’t be closing at the end of the deal.
Predicted Line: 53 G, 4.24 ERA, 53 IP, 45 IP, 57 K, 29 BB, 6 HR

Sean Doolittle ($15,500,000) – The Royals have liked Doolittle for awhile, so I imagine they’ll overlook his injuries this year and some in previous years to give him a big time overpay on a four-year deal worth $49 million. Great control, swings and misses and nearly unhittable relievers aren’t out there all that often, so they had to make a push for him, but knowing the payroll would be manageable at the end, they can backload it.
Predicted Line: 41 G, 3.19 ERA, 43.2 IP, 35 H, 49 K, 9 BB, 5 HR

Carlos Hernandez ($575,000) – Hernandez will get the opportunity in 2021 to make some spot starts and work as a long man out of the bullpen to get his feet wet. He’ll also spend some time in Omaha, but that’s okay.
Predicted Line: 39 G (12 GS), 4.53 ERA, 96.1 IP, 94 H, 87 K, 39 BB, 12 HR

Brad Keller ($1,900,000) – I know people will wonder why Keller is in the bullpen when he’s been so good as a rookie in the rotation, and that’s fair. I just think some of his issues as a starter will make it tough for him to stay there when there are better options, and he can be a really valuable member of a staff who can go multiple innings and can coax a double play grounder when needed. It’s not that he necessarily couldn’t fit as a starter, but on this team, the bullpen is his spot.
Predicted Line: 47 G, 3.11 ERA, 83.1 IP, 77 H, 58 K, 29 BB, 2 HR

Jackson Kowar ($575,000) – There’s a potential future in the rotation for Kowar, but I think the 2021 Royals will really enjoy his stuff coming out of the bullpen to get his feet wet and ending up pitching late in games quite a bit in 2021.
Predicted Line: 51 G, 2.37 ERA, 64 IP, 39 H, 78 K, 22 BB, 4 HR

Richard Lovelady ($750,000) – A duo of Doolittle and Lovelady from the left side is going to be pretty tough to beat in 2021. Lovelady will be in his third year and will be at his very best, taking the majority of save opportunities for this particular Royals club.
Predicted Line: 65 G, 1.29 ERA, 71.1 IP, 33 H, 91 K, 15 BB, 1 HR

Glenn Sparkman ($600,000) – I will always like Sparkman as a bullpen option and I think he and Adam can be a really solid middle relief duo. Plus, he can give you two or three innings when needed, so he’ll be a big part of a modern bullpen.
Predicted Line: 43 G, 3.21 ERA, 68.2 IP, 71 H, 65 K, 28 BB, 5 HR

The total payroll for this squad that looks much improved from what we’ve been watching this year checks in at $114 million, which isn’t all that bloated at all. They’ll be worth 34.8 WARP in general, which puts them as an 83 win team or so. If the bullpen overperforms, they might get an extra three or four wins out of it. All in all, not too shabby I guess. If this is the first step, it’s a good one. If this is a peak, it’s a problem.

BPKC Hitter of the Day Chris Hudgins 3-4 3R, 2b, 2-HR, 4 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day Jackson Kowar 4 IP 3 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 5 K 5-0 GO-FO 58p/38k

Lexington Legends 15 Hagerstown Suns 3

The Legends bats erupted in a blowout win over Hagerstown on Friday night. All nine starters had at least one hit with all but Ricky Aracena connecting on two hits as the squad put together 18 hits. Outfielder Brewer Hicklen connected on a two-run home run in the first before Kyle Isbel’s seventh home run in the third made it 3-0. The score was 6-0 after five when the Legends really blew it open in the sixth inning with an eight-run frame that featured a Marten Gasparini three-run blast. That lead was plenty for Lexington with starter Jackson Kowar on the mound and Garrett Davila backing him up. The 1st round pick from Florida had his best outing yet, striking out five hitters in four innings while allowing just three hits against no walks. It wasn’t Davila’s best outing, allowing three runs with six hits and a pair of walks allowed in three innings before Garrett Suchey toss the final two innings to secure the win.

Nick Pratto 2-4 2R, 3b, 3 RBI, BB, SB
Kyle Isbel 2-5 2R, HR
MJ Melendez 2-6 R, 2-2b

Winston-Salem Dash 4 Wilmington Blue Rocks 3

It couldn’t have been a worse time for Wilmington to hit a losing streak but that’s the case as the Rocks dropped their fourth game in a row on Friday. The offense jumped out of the gate against struggling Alec Hansen for two runs in the first inning with a rbi single by Gabriel Cancel and a rbi triple by Emmanuel Rivera. That lead wouldn’t last long though with starter Andres Sotillet giving up a run in the first and a two-run bomb as part of a three-run second inning to fall behind 4-2. From the two pitching staff’s stood firm until the ninth when Wilmington put the first two runners on with a walk and a single that moved Vance Vizcaino to third. Catcher Meibrys Viloria would score Vizcaino with a sacrifice fly but Jackson Lueck would hit into a double play to end the threat and the game.

Blake Perkins 2-4 R, 2b
Gabriel Cancel 2-4 R, RBI
Emmanuel Rivera 1-4 3b, RBI, 2K

NW Arkansas Naturals 8 Frisco RoughRiders 2 

Starter Scott Blewett backed up a complete game outing last time out with seven innings of quality pitcher. The right-hander allowed just four hits and a pair of walks while giving up just two runs with five strikeouts. After four shutout innings, the offense came alive in the fifth inning with an Alfredo Escalera two-run home run. That offense kickstarted the offense, getting a run in the sixth inning prior to five runs over the final two innings to blow the game open as two relievers tossed the final two innings scoreless.

Samir Duenez 2-5 2R, 2b
Kelvin Gutierrez 2-5 R
Scott Blewett 7 IP 4 H 2 R 2 ER 2 BB 5 K 6-6 GO-FO 89p/56k

Colorado Springs Sky Sox 8 Omaha Storm Chasers 5

The Chasers received a quality start from Trevor Oaks as the right-hander tossed two-run ball over six innings but the bullpen struggled in a loss. His replacement, Josh Staumont, struggled mightily while on the hill giving up a single, a pair of walks and a double. A pair of wild pitches and a throwing error would score three of those runners before Staumont’s replacement, Eric Stout would give up a two-run home run to put the Chasers down 7-2. Omaha would attempt a rally in the ninth, scoring three runs with four walks and a Frank Schwindel single but the seventh inning damage had put them too far down to complete the comeback.

Frank Schwindel 1-4 2 RBI, BB
Trevor Oaks 6 IP 7 H 2 R 1 ER 0 BB 2 K HR 8-8 GO-FO 99p/63k
Nicky Lopez 1-4 RBI, BB

Bristol Pirates 14 Burlington Royals 9

The Burlington pitching staff couldn’t hold off the Pirates for the second straight night as their rookie squad piled up 14 runs on 13 hits and 14 free passes handed out by Royals pitching. All four Burlington pitchers walked at least two with lefty Marlin Willis getting touched up for the most damage, allowing six runs on five hits and five walks. The Royals did plenty of damage on their own with nine runs on 10 hits including three home runs. First baseman Chris Hudgins did much of the heavy lifting on that side with a pair of home runs and a double but it wasn’t enough in the loss.

Austin Cox 2 IP 1 H 2R 1 ER 3 BB 4 K 1-1 46p/25k
Jose Marquez 1-4 HR, BB
Juan Carlos Negret 0-5 5K

Great Falls Voyagers 3 Idaho Falls Chukars 2 F/10

The Chukars lost a pitching duel Friday night when their defense let them down in extra innings. Three Idaho Falls pitchers combined to allow just one earned run in the ten inning affair with starter Connor Mayes giving up a second-inning solo home run that tied the game after a Jose Caraballo triple gave Idaho Falls the lead in the first. The game was tied until the tenth when the Chukars defense committed back to back one out throwing errors, the second by pitcher Jordan Floyd which allowed two Great Falls runs to score. The Chukars answered by scoring their free runner in the tenth and placing the tying run at second but back to back strikeouts of Nathan Eaton and Reed Rohlman ended it.

Connor Mayes 5 IP 5 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 6 K 6-2 GO-FO 89p/56k
Nathan Eaton 1-5 R, 2b, 3 K
Jose Caraballo 1-4 3b, RBI

Friday Boxscores