Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

As I mentioned when the Royals took on the Twins after the break, Odorizzi is having a strong season in some capacities, such as in his strikeout rate, which is still the second highest of his career, but he’s just walking too many batters, a problem that really arose last season. He doesn’t have the best stuff in the world in spite of the strikeouts, so he gives up his fair share of hits as well. With all those base runners, it’s no surprise he’s having a bit of a rough season. But he, of course, pitched quite well against the Royals a couple weeks back, going six innings and giving up just two hits and one walk and two runs with eight strikeouts. This is a slightly different Royals team he’s facing, so it’s hard to say that what he did then is indicative of what he’ll do in this one. The number that jumps out to me with Odorizzi is his innings pitched. He’s averaging just five innings per start and has only faced one batter after the sixth this season. It makes sense. The third time through the order, he’s allowed a .372/.450/.872 line. But with the Twins bullpen being shaken up a bit, they may find that they run into even more problems with a guy like Odorizzi for the rest of the year.

Fillmyer was really impressive in his start against Detroit a week or so ago, and then came back and held his own in Yankee Stadium against a tough lineup. The issue that I believe he’ll always run into is that he just doesn’t miss enough bats. He missed bats against the Tigers and had a really nice outing, but he only had three swings and misses against the Yankees. This Twins lineup is somewhere in between those two lineups, so I’d say it’s sort of a tossup, but his ground ball tendencies are good to see against a team that likes to lift the ball, so maybe he can have another nice outing here. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins in his career, so history will be made when he throws his first pitch.

Saturday – 6:10 pm

After a really strong year in 2017, it was expected that Berrios would take the next step to stardom in 2018, and while he hasn’t quite gotten there, he’s had a very nice season. He’s upped his strikeouts, lowered his walks and been harder to hit. And when he’s gotten deep into games, he’s taken control, allowing a .140/.222/.246 line from the seventh inning on. That’s impressive for a young pitcher. He uses a four-seamer at about 94 MPH, a two-seamer just a tick slower and a curve for the majority of his pitches, but he keeps hitters honest with a changeup that he uses early in the count to lefties mostly, and it gets hit with four of his home runs allowed on that, all to lefties. I could see a scenario where Berrios tries to mess up some timing on the young guys and Brett Phillips and Ryan O’Hearn both can do some damage if he hangs it. Berrios faced the Royals once this year, on July 9^th, and gave up just one run on six hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts and no walks in a 3-1 Twins win. He’s struggled against the Royals overall in his career, but a lot of that was his rookie season. He’s changed and the Royals have changed.

I was expecting Smith to get lit up in New York and he really didn’t, allowing just two extra base hits in four innings, but the overall line was rough with five runs allowed in four innings. He also was coming off a nice start against the Tigers where he got 16 swings and misses. That’s crazy. His changeup is the key for him. He’s allowed a .208 average on it with a .354 slugging percentage this season and it’s accounted for 16 of his strikeouts this year and just one home run allowed. Twins hitters have hit right-handed changeups very well this season. Eddie Rosario has hit .375 in 40 at bats and five current hitters have a .475 SLG or higher against them. That doesn’t mean he can’t succeed with it, but it’ll be a tough test for him even though this isn’t a great lineup.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

Santana’s season just began because a finger injury wiped out more than half of it, which was a big blow to the Twins chances in 2018. Since returning, he hasn’t been good, but the sample is quite small as you can see above. He has allowed three home runs in 13 hits in those 10.1 innings and only struck out six, but he’s able to control the ball at least with just three walks allowed. Velocity is WAY down in his two starts with his four-seamer averaging just 90 MPH and his sinker averaging 89. Even his slider is only averaging 81-82 after sitting about three miles per hour higher last season. And after allowing a .154 average with a .260 slugging percentage on the slider last year, he’s given up a .385 average and .769 slugging percentage so far. Again, the sample is tiny, but given that he’s coming back from an injury that could impact his ability to manipulate the ball, it’s worth noting. Santana is 7-10 with a 4.71 ERA in 25 career starts against the Royals, but other than Whit Merrifield, nobody has done much damage against him and even Whit doesn’t have much of a sample.

Unlike Fillmyer and Smith, Duffy was coming off a bad start against the Tigers and followed it up with a solid enough start against the White Sox. He didn’t allow a run, but he only went 5.2 innings and he gave up six hits and four walks. He did get seven strikeouts with 17 swings and misses, so that’s a good thing, but the underlying numbers weren’t that encouraging. And he’s throwing a ton of pitches, exceeding 100 for the sixth straight start and the eighth time in his last nine. It’s not that big of a deal when he’s going seven innings, but he’s thrown 219 pitches in his last two starts and only gone 11.1 innings. He handled the Twins easily in Kansas City after the break and actually has been great against them all season, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings over three starts, so this is a matchup that does seem to favor him. Hopefully, it can continue to favor him.

Why not? Let’s call it another Royals series win because they’ve handled the Twins just fine this year and seem to be feeling good about themselves with the new blood in the lineup.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:15 pm

Gibson putting it together is simultaneously shocking and expected because the stuff has always been there and also the way he’s handled the Royals in his career has made us believe he was actually never bad. But even so, he’s striking hitters out for the first time in his career, which makes his walk rate that’s a little too high palatable. Add in that he’s been tough to hit and isn’t even giving up much in the way of home runs and he’s pitching like a guy who can actually help a playoff contender if the Twins choose to move him. The tall righty still shows solid velocity at 93-94 on both his four- and two-seamer. His slider has turned into a beast of a pitch, holding opponents to a .118 average and .215 slugging percentage with 49 strikeouts this season in 93 at bats. There is a bit of luck in the profile as he’s been unreal good with runners in scoring position, holding opponents to a .460 OPS compared with .713 with the bases empty. That’s a good sign regression is coming to some extent, but it won’t be enough alone to knock him out of the “good pitcher” category. He’s already thrown seven shutout innings against the Royals once this year, and I bet he’s not afraid to do it again.

Duffy ended the first half in style, throwing 13 consecutive scoreless innings over his final two starts. He struck out 17 and walked five while giving up just 10 hits in those two starts, so he’s on a good run. One of those two starts was against these very Twins and his 11 percent whiff rate was very good in that one. He was up to 14 percent in his last start against the White Sox, so that’s all very encouraging for a strong second half from Duffy. In all, he’s posted a 2.73 ERA in his last 10 starts and has generally looked like the Duffy of old. If he can figure out how to work around Robbie Grossman of all people, he should be okay given his history against Twins hitters. In his last start against the Twins, both his changeup and his curve did the damage for him, so look for those pitches to play a big role in either his success or lack thereof.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

It’s been a weird year for Lynn, as we talked about when he matched up against the Royals before the break, which is actually his last start, 10 days before this one. He started off with a brutal April that saw his ERA over 8.00, but he’s settled down quite a bit since then, going 7-4 with a 4.12 ERA and about a strikeout per inning with his walk rate down enough to be acceptable. The big number for him is that he’s allowed five home runs since April after allowing five in April itself. He went just five innings against the Royals on July 11^th, allowing four runs on five hits and throwing 114 pitches, so pitch efficiency isn’t always his friend. He also allowed two of the five homers he’s allowed since April in this one. His sinker gave him the most trouble, while his four-seam fastball was the best pitch against the Royals, so we’ll see if he throws even more fastballs than he did last week. Mike Moustakas is a career .313 hitter against Lynn with three home runs, including one this season against him.

Junis makes his return to the Royals rotation for this one, after hitting the disabled list for the first time his career with lower back inflammation. It’ll be his first start since July 2 when he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 5.2 innings against the Indians with two homers allowed and three hit batters. Junis has given up a big league high 24 home runs this year and 12 of them have come in his last five starts spanning just 27 innings. That’s a number that would make Chris Young blush. The hope here obviously is that his back was causing him problems during that stretch because that would at least be a cause for his issues. In three of his last five starts, his slider hasn’t been nearly up to snuff and if he doesn’t have that, he doesn’t have much. His sinker, which looked like a potential second out pitch early in the year has been bad in four of his last five starts. Both those pitches would suffer when the back suffers, so maybe, just maybe. He faced the Twins in late May and allowed three runs on six hits in six innings, walking a season-high four batters and hitting one.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

Odorizzi has been away from the Royals organization for so long that it takes a minute sometimes to remember that he was ever in it. The Twins acquired him with the hope that he would stabilize the middle of the rotation and he’s been fine enough. He’s striking out a ton of hitters at the second highest rate of his career with a very strong 23.7 percent rate. He’s also walking players at the highest rate of his career, tied with last season. Hitters are having an inordinate amount of success against him when the at bat ends on the first pitch. He’s allowed a .474 average and .974 slugging percentage in those situations, which is truly incredible. He’s also really struggled with the bases empty, allowing a .296/.375/.540 line, so if you put two and two together, you can be somewhat confident in a base hit to lead off an inning from someone. And if you want to talk about a third time through the order penalty, Odorizzi is the poster child. He’s allowed a .698 OPS the first time, .651 the second time and a robust 1.379 the third time through. Get him past 75 pitches where he allows a 1.158 OPS and even the Royals might be able to score some runs against him. He’s posted a 2.12 ERA against the Royals the last two years, allowing just four runs on 10 hits in 17 innings.

Keller looks to bounce back from the worst start in his career. He gave up five runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings and walked four more batters. Now he’s given up nine runs in his last 7.1 innings with nine walks allowed in his last two starts, so the question is if the league is starting to get a book on him. I guess we’ll find out the answer soon enough. Still, as a starter, he’s thrown 41 innings with a  3.73 ERA, but a 23:20 strikeout to walk ratio just won’t cut it and he’s given up 43 hits as well, so there have been tons of base runners. The saving grace is that he still hasn’t allowed a home run as a starter and has actually faced 235 batters since the last long ball allowed. I don’t think I care enough to look it up, but I’d guess that’s one of the longest streaks in baseball this year. The Twins, as a team, have just a .335 SLG against sliders, and when Keller has been really good, he’s had the slider working, so that seems to be an important pitch for him in this one.

Again, I promise to always predict that the Royals will be swept until they win a series, so get ready for three more home losses, friends.

With that in mind, the Royals sit a couple weeks from the deadline in a position to make a move for a playoff spot. While they might not ultimately be “buyers” this trade season, they are most definitely in the market. Today, I’m going to look at the starting pitching they could acquire to fortify a rotation that ranks in the bottom half of the league in many categories. Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at position players, mainly outfielders, they can acquire to help round out an offense that hasn’t performed up to the level of expectations.

The Royals have the ammunition to acquire basically any player on the market with a guy like Raul Mondesi. That doesn’t mean they’re going to use him as a trade chip, but the possibility still exists until it doesn’t exist.

Let’s get started. As always, these names are in alphabetical order, so that has nothing to do with my preference of player.

Andrew Cashner – In 2013 and 2014, Cashner looked like a rising star. He had been moved to the rotation by the Padres and was solid in that role. In 50 games (45 starts), he went 15-16 but had a 2.87 ERA in 298.1 innings. He had good stuff, but that didn’t seem to translate to strikeouts. Then last year, the strikeouts arrived, but he was much more hittable and his ERA jumped to 4.34. He’s been even worse this year and has spent time on the disabled list. He’s owed a little more than $3 million the rest of the year and is a free agent following the season. Some teams will find him attractive because he’s cheap and talented, so he’ll fetch something on the market, but he probably won’t be crazy in terms of prospects. This could be a fit if the Royals think they can figure him out quickly.

Jorge De La Rosa – This is an old friend who I never thought would be much of anything in the big leagues, but he’s made a nice career for himself in Colorado. He was actually the player to be named later in the Royals deal for Ramon Ramirez back in 2008 and he’s been there ever since. He still walks too many batters and he doesn’t strike out as many as you’d like, but he’s a solid arm. He had a brutally bad start to the year, but after a short stint in the bullpen, he has a 2.68 ERA in his last six starts over 37 innings. He’s due about $6 million the rest of the year and then is a free agent. I’m thinking he can be had for a prospect in the 11-15 range or so, which the Royals could part with pretty easily.

Matt Garza – Garza was good at one time, but he isn’t any more. The Brewers seemed like they got a pretty good bargain on him when they gave him four years prior to 2014, but he’s really fallen off a cliff. He spent the first part of this season on the disabled list. I really don’t like this option, but he’s out there and the Royals like reclamation projects. He’s owed about $6 million the rest of this year, $12.5 million next year and has an option for 2018 that will likely be for $5 million. If the Royals think they can figure out his issues, that’s a bargain. If not, that’s an albatross. My money is on albatross.

Junior Guerra – This is a pretty good story. He was originally a catcher, but eventually moved to the mound and hung around the minors for a long time. He finally made his debut last year for the White Sox, but was released and then claimed by the Brewers. He’s been fantastic this season, going 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 starts. He’s averaging more than six innings per start. He’s striking out just under eight per nine innings and walking less than three. He’s limiting hits. Basically, he’s been a revelation. The Brewers have no real reason to trade him because he’s cheap and under control for a long time, but I’d be worried that he’s a flash in the pan. Still, what he’s done would be huge for the Royals in that fifth spot. I can’t imagine he’d be too pricey to acquire, but would still cost more than Garza, in all likelihood.

Jeremy Hellickson – I think Hellickson would be the most Royals and Dayton Moore acquisition you can imagine. When he’s been good, it always seems he’s been good in spite of everything. He’s not quite the extreme fly ball pitcher he’s made out to be, but he’s definitely not a ground ball pitcher. He’s started to strike out more batters and he does have good control, so he’s a guy you can catch lightning in a bottle with. He’s owed a bit more than $3 million and then is a free agent following the season, but I think he’ll be in demand, so he might cost more than he’s worth. Scratch that, he will cost more than he’s worth. I could absolutely see this happening, but I’m not going to love it if and when it does.

Rich Hill – Hill is the best name on the market. He was out of the majors and then made his return last year for the Red Sox. Of course, he turned that into a $6 million deal with the A’s and he’s been great this year for them. He’s missed time with a groin injury and left his start on Sunday after five pitches with a popped blister. He’s not the picture of health, but he’s been excellent and it looks like the changes he’s made have been for real. With pretty much every team needing starting pitching in on Hill, I think the price might be too high and one the Royals can’t match, but they’re watching him and will be in on him. There’s already a report the A’s asked the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza, a top-20 prospect in the game. They backed off that, but the Royals can’t match that.

Matt Moore – Moore was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he had to go under the knife for Tommy John. He came back last year and wasn’t what you’d call great. He started this season slow but has a 2.51 ERA and a roughly 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio over his last seven starts where he’s averaged about six and a half innings. There’s certainly risk with Moore, but the upside is undeniable. He’s owed a bit more than $2 million the rest of this year and then has options for $7 million, $9 million and $10 million the next three seasons. He’s not going to come cheap, but he could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come. It might be worth the cost here to help both this team and the next few.

Ivan Nova – Nova isn’t what you’d call good, but he won’t be expensive in either prospects or money. He’s owed around $2 million the rest of this season and has a 5.46 ERA the last three seasons. He doesn’t walk many and he gets a decent amount of strikeouts. Plus, there’s a history with Dave Eiland, so maybe that’s something that he sees in him. I don’t know. Nova is probably throwing a dart at a problem, but he’s out there and could be better than what they’ve had.

Jake Odorizzi – I’ll start by saying I don’t see this happening. Odorizzi has struggled lately but did pitch well on Sunday in getting the win against the Orioles. He’s got good control, gets strikeouts and gives up some home runs, so he’d fit right in with the Royals. He’s also under team control for three more seasons after this one and will head to arbitration for the first time before the 2017 season. He’s going to cost a ton and the production probably doesn’t match up with what his return will be if they trade him. Still, it’s an interesting thought.

Ervin Santana – I love this idea even though Santana is owed $27 million in 2017 and 2018 and about $6.5 million the rest of this season. He’s still a quality pitcher and could fill a hole in the rotation for the next two years to come. He’s owed a little more money than you’d like, and I’m not sure the Twins will see a need to move him if they think they can compete over the next couple seasons. Now, maybe they’d pay down the deal in order to get a better caliber of prospect back, but I think the best bet for the Royals would be to get him at full price without having to pay too much in prospects. With Terry Ryan’s firing, the Twins may be a little more inclined to sell, so that could help here.

Hector Santiago – He doesn’t get deep into games, but the innings he does give are quality. He limits hits well, gets a few strikeouts and walks a few too many. He also gives up more than his share of homers, but he’s a good guy at the back of the rotation. He’s owed a little less than $2.5 million the rest of the year and is arbitration eligible next year before hitting free agency. The Angels system is so weak that Santiago might be a guy the Royals could target with some quantity from the system over high quality. And he’d give them an extra option next year for a relatively inexpensive salary.

Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker ditched his curve and began using his splitter more and turned into a completely different pitcher. Since May 21, he’s made 11 starts and averaged just under seven innings per outing. He has a 2.36 ERA with 88 strikeouts and nine walks. These are ace numbers. But because his track record isn’t that great, if the Angels are willing to sell on him, they probably aren’t going to get quite as much as someone with those numbers should command. I don’t think they’ll trade him. They shouldn’t, anyway. If so, it might be the same situation as Santiago where the Royals could use quantity to get him. He’s not arbitration eligible until next year and won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. If this is for real, he would be a huge get.

Drew Smyly – He hasn’t been good this year by any stretch, but he strikes out a ton of hitters and limits walks pretty well. Of course, he also gives up plenty of hits and plenty of homers. He also doesn’t have the best track record concerning health. I’m not sure the Rays would trade him with his value as low as it currently is, but if they did, he’d be a great buy low candidate. I also think he would cost a lot more than the Royals would be willing to pay.

Dan Straily – Here’s another guy who makes a lot of sense. Straily isn’t going to ever be confused for a top of the rotation arm, but he was solid with Oakland in 2012 and 2013 and after a lost last two years, he’s resurfaced with the Reds where he has a 4.14 ERA as a starter in 100 innings. He’s a back of the rotation guy with not enough strikeouts and a few too many walks, but he’s very difficult to hit, which is his saving grace and helps his WHIP to be a reasonable 1.21 as a starter. He’s already 27, but he has a ton of control left as he’s not even eligible for arbitration. I wonder if he’d be part of a package deal or if the Royals could get him for a bottom half of the top 20 prospects they have. I first mentioned him in early June, and still think he’d be a nice fit.

So there are a bunch of starters who I think could be available and the Royals could keep an eye on. I’m not sure they’ll make any trade, but unless they go way off the grid, these are the likely targets. Tomorrow, I’ll cover the position players they could be after.