Before I get to the pitchers, a quick note on the Rule 5 hitters, the Royals have selected. They’ve played nine and only four of them have accumulated 100 or more plate appearances. Jon Nunnally was probably the best with a .244/.357/.472 line and .280 TAv with 2.4 WARP. Tony Solaita was up there too, hitting .268/.361/.406 with a  .288 TAv and 1.5 WARP. He also probably had the best career with Endy Chavez a close second.

But the pitchers are where it’s interesting.

The Royals pitching history in the draft is actually pretty interesting (though maybe only to me) and now that we’ve embarked on the offseason, I wanted to look back at the pitchers they’ve selected, whether they’ve stuck or not and how they fit into categories. I’m just looking at how they did in their Rule 5 season, not their career. I’ll get to a career ranking at the bottom.

The Good (in enough ways)

These are the guys who put up really solid seasons based on ERA really, but all of them also did well on runs allowed. So for most of them, the peripherals didn’t look good, and that caused some short careers, but Brewer did last through 1999 even though he was pretty bad after his second season in the big leagues. Sisco was surprisingly good on the surface in his Rule 5 year, striking out more than a batter per inning and was generally actually pretty good other than the walks. He had an affinity for tacos. Between that and some other factors, this was the best he ever was.

Of all the Royals Rule 5 picks other than Soria, Carrasco is the one who had the best career. His ERA is clearly the highest of anyone on the list and even higher than a couple guys on the list below, but he was above league average in 2003 and had a league average ERA in 2004 for the Royals and was just a few ticks below league average in 2005 when he spent most of his time as a starter. He stuck around for a few more solid seasons before petering out a bit at the end of his career with the Mets, which is a little bit redundant, but that’s okay. He’s probably the second best Rule 5 pitcher the Royals have taken.

The obvious best pitcher here was and might still be Joakim Soria who got himself a big strikeout to help hold off the Cubs and get the Brewers the NL Central just on Monday. It remains to be seen how Keller’s career shakes out, but one thing I find encouraging is that in the second half, he upped his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate while lowering his walk rate and still managing to not allow a ton of homers. The DRA isn’t terribly pretty for Keller, but it improved as the season progressed and makes me hopeful for him.

The Okayish (in some ways)

It drops off pretty quickly, which is sort of what you’d expect for a group of players defined by the fact that they weren’t really wanted. Adcock was sort of okay in 2011 and actually ended up posting a silly good ERA in 2012 (even though the peripherals were garbage). Texeira threw some innings, so there was that. And Asencio is on here because he was so awful early that his ERA was skewed somewhat. The Royals inexplicably gave him a start on May 21^st after he’d spent nine appearances being generally horrible and he posted a 4.63 ERA through the end of the season. Sure he walked more than he struck out, but hey, this is 2002 we’re talking about. He did only allow 12 homers in those last 22 games, so that’s something. That WARP, though, man, I thought about putting him in the next category, but 123.1 innings from a Rule 5 guy of a nearly league average ERA is enough to keep him off the next one.

Woof

The game changing makes a difference here. Wright in 1970 posting a 5.23 ERA was good for an ERA+ of 72 while Asencio’s 5.11 above was good for 97. So that’s why they look relatively close and one is up there and one is down here. He lasted through his age 27 season with the Yankees, but was never especially good. And we know the Smith story. I’m still surprised he ended up here and Keller all the way at the top based on my spring training expectations, but it quickly became apparent that I (and many others) was way too optimistic about him. Could he still have a solid career? Sure. Will he? I’m not betting on it.

If I had to rank them based on their rookie seasons, there are two clear guys at the top, but I’ll go:

1. Soria
2. Keller
3. Carrasco
4. Sisco
5. Brewer
6. Wright
7. Asencio
8. Adcock
9. Texeira
10. Wright
11. Smith

Yeah, Burch is at the bottom of the barrel.

If I’m ranking them by their careers, obviously Smith and Keller are incomplete, but my ranking is:

1. Soria
2. Carrasco
3. Brewer?
4. Wright
5. Adcock?
6. Asencio
7. Sisco
8. Texeira
9. Wright

In all, here’s the line for Royals Rule 5 pitchers throughout their history:

I guess for guys who were basically free roster adds, that’s really not all bad. A couple guys have had decent or better careers and there’s a possibility for that with Keller as well. For a bad team, it’s obviously a great way to add potential talent and if it doesn’t work out, you’re only out the time and a small amount of money. It’s interesting to me that they’ve had so many pitchers outperform their peripherals as rookies. Maybe it’s being put into mostly low leverage situations, but whatever it is, the Royals have gotten a fair amount of in the moment bang for the buck from this draft. Hey, it’s something.

White Sox Receive
Joakim Soria RH Reliever
Luis Avilan 

The White Sox add a pair of relievers who they can put toward the back end of their bullpen without having to give up any major prospects in the process. For a team in a major market, just a couple years into their rebuild, the $9m the White Sox take on in the Soria contract isn’t a whole lot for a team that prior to this deal lacked a closer candidate. Will he get them over the top? No, but he offers them a veteran reliever they can lean on while their young arms develop.

Dodgers Receive
Scott Alexander LH Reliever
Jake Peters 3b

The Dodgers clearly get the jewel of this deal in Alexander, one year after the left-handed reliever established himself as a true fireman last season for Ned Yost. Despite the Dodgers being unwilling to take on payroll, they get an extreme groundball pitcher with five years of team control in his inexpensive seasons for a pair of prospects that are fringy and weren’t likely to see the light of day on a roster stacked to the brim.

Royals Receive
Trevor Oaks RHP Triple-A
Erick Mejia Utility Infielder Double-A
Soria $9m salary relief

This deal is just as much about the $9m the Royals are trimming from payroll as it is the players that they are getting in return. Losing Soria’s contract off the payroll lowers the outgo to approximately $109m for the Royals which gets them one step closer to freeing up the necessary space needed to resign Eric Hosmer.

Trevor Oaks – An athletic right-handed starter, Oaks fits into what is becoming quite the logjam of fringe major league starters between Kansas City and Omaha. Last season Oaks was limited by an oblique strain but was solid for the Triple-A squad when healthy, creating a 51% groundball rate against a 4-1 K-BB rate. The fastball works low to mid 90s, touching 96 next to his cutter/slider and sinker. The fastball and sinker work as a pair to attack hitters and get groundballs before he tries to finish off hitters with the slider. In addition to that mix, he also works in a changeup that lagged behind without use but could develop into an average major league pitch. Oaks goes to the front of the line in a competition among Eric Skoglund, Scott Barlow, Andres Machado and a few others in an attempt to take the 5th or 6th man in the rotation.

Erick Mejia – Originally acquired by the Dodgers for Joe Wieland in 2016 Mejia clubbed seven home runs this past season after hitting just five during the previous five seasons. An above average runner with a tick above average arm he likely tops out as a major league utility guy who can play second, third and shortstop while providing some speed off the bench. Expect him to head to Omaha this season to add a little depth and protection behind Raul Mondesi and alongside Ramon Torres and Nicky Lopez should Mondesi continue his struggles at the major league level. The best possible comp is likely that of Erick Aybar, the former Angels shortstop.

Overall this deal is all about creating salary space in order to re-sign Eric Hosmer while adding to the depth of their current backend rotation. Left-handed relief is a position of strength for Kansas City with Eric Stout ready to compete for a spot in the bullpen and Richard Lovelady pushing hard behind him. This offseason’s theme thus far for GMDM has been to add young and controllable backend rotation starters with Oaks adding to Barlow, also of the Dodgers, with Rule 5 arms Burch Smith and Brad Keller. Expect another deal of a Royals starting pitcher to be coming very soon behind this one.

Tampa Bay RHP Burch Smith – Smith is a right-handed pitcher that dealt with injuries in ’15 and ’16 after making the majors in ’13 with the Padres but is 27 and has pitched extremely well this last year for the Rays Triple-A squad and this past Fall League season. Working 94-96 mph with his fastball next to a hard breaking mid 70’s curve and a plus changeup Smith has three pitches that are of major league quality. Had the injuries not occurred then Smith would’ve likely established whether or not he was a major league quality pitcher by this time but at 27 years old he will likely now get an opportunity to prove himself during spring training. I’d give him a 75% shot of making the Royals club out of spring and would probably bump that up some should the Royals find a new home for either Jason Hammel or Danny Duffy this offseason. At 76 plus innings this past season he could compete for the fifth starter spot or fall back to a long man role from the Royals pen.

Arizona RHP Brad Keller – A member of the Diamondbacks Top 10 prospect list according to Baseball America prior to the season struggled at Double-A this past year, allowing over a hit per inning and a 4.68 ERA. All three pitches from his hand profile as average at best with a low 90’s fastball, a firm change, and a sweepy slider.

Via Baseball Prospectus Eyewitness Reports – Big, sturdy frame, thick throughout, high waist, long legs, broad shoulders with slope, moderate hunch; quick rock, stiffness with some effort into leg kick, keeps his posture through significant collapse on back leg; long arm action, deep circle, downhill with front-side extension to high three-quarter slot, will drop to true three-quarter, mild drag, average arm speed, gets late to slot; long stride, gets low, does not leverage height, release point a good 9-10 inches below standing height, firm strike with stress on front knee and groin; mild recoil, generally clean finish; struggles to repeat with balance, will get offline early, lacks fluidity, control-over-command profile; fast worker, up-tempo cadence, quick from stretch, 1.19-1.30

I’d give his chances in the 25% range at breaking with the club with a better chance of him returning to the D-Backs or the Royals working out a trade to get him to the upper levels of their system.

Triple-A Phase – The Royals selected RHP Daniel Duarte after he pitched in the Mexican League this past season. Listed at 6’0 170 lbs he registered a 1.118 WHIP and a 1.96 ERA in 37 bullpen appearances in the league last year. The pitcher turned 21 years old just this month and has pitched well in the Dominican Summer League for the Rangers organization previously.

The Rule 5 Draft will take place later today with a good chance the Royals make a selection with their 15th pick and a couple roster spots with which to play. While prospect-hounds love to talk about this draft and reminisce about  Joakim Soria and Josh Hamilton, it should be said that the roster rules have changed since those days. It’s much less likely that either of those players would be eligible under today’s rules. That said, there have been recent picks that have impacted major league rosters in Marwin Gonzalez, Justin Bour, and Delino Deshields. Still, with the 15th pick in this draft, it’s somewhat of a longshot to think they could get that type of player tomorrow. Although there are a few players I wouldn’t mind seeing the Royals give an opportunity to make the squad this spring.

Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes – I would be surprised if the Yankees and their loaded farm don’t see multiple players chosen in this draft. This lefty isn’t one that stands out in the crowd physically at just 5’11” and 205 lbs., but hitters haven’t been able to do much against him at any level with a career 2.08 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. The concerns might be there about making him a starter with a shorter frame and career high of just 106 innings, but the Royals wouldn’t need to worry much about this year. Leaving a minor on the roster as a long man to use in games that getaway is a relatively easy proposition. The stuff doesn’t jump off the paper with a high 80’s to low 90’s fastball, but he offers deceptive changes in speed to the fastball with a decent pair of secondary pitchers.

Mets RHP Adonis Uceta – Uceta possesses a talented arm that can run it up to 97 mph next to an extremely deceptive changeup. That helped him limit both RH and LH hitters to a sub .170 batting average against him this past season. The Mets have done a great job of developing power arms and with the results this past season for this 23-year-old, it should open the eyes of the Royals front office to take a look at adding him to their bullpen.

Diamondbacks 1b Kevin Cron – A player with no place to go with Paul Goldschmidt ahead of him, the Royals have a spot open should Eric Hosmer sign elsewhere. A better defender at first than both Frank Schwindel and Ryan O’Hearn, this right-handed slugger is a combination of those two at the plate, featuring a little bit better hit tool than O’Hearn but a better plate approach than Schwindel. If the Royals are looking at cutting payroll then giving Cron a shot at making the opening day roster could be worth consideration.

Blue Jays C Max Pentecost – This is an odd one for a team that is already carrying four catchers on their 40 man roster but some believe he is the most talented player available in this draft, although his injury history will likely scare teams away. The Royals, as a noncontender and with a deep roster, can carry Pentecost for spring while they look at him to see if he can handle the rigors of catching regularly. Should he show the Royals that he could do that, Kansas City could more seriously look at trading Salvador Perez to boost a farm system as they move towards a rebuild. The bat and arm are enough for Max to be an impact major leaguer if the body can handle the day to day activity.

Rangers LHP Anthony Gose – A rebuilding team can do things others likely can’t and Gose was throwing around 100 mph in 11 appearances last year. The Royals have a need for a centerfielder and while Gose has shown he can’t hit much they could offer him 30-50 games, let him show off his defense in the spacious stadium while letting Cal Eldred work on refining his pitching skills to try to make a relief pitcher out of him. Not likely, but a fun idea nonetheless.

In the end, I think a relief pitcher is the most likely idea for the Royals selection if they’re serious about trading Danny Duffy, Scott Alexander, and Kelvin Herrera.

So I don’t think you’ll see them looking at free agents to cover first base like Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Yonder Alonso or Adam Lind. If the Royals aren’t comfortable leaving that position to some combination of Hunter Dozier, Brandon Moss and Cheslor Cuthbert, I hope that doesn’t come back to bite them. What I do think you’ll see is the Royals dabbling in the relief market over the next couple weeks. I think you’ll see activity, at least in terms of discussion, on both additions and subtractions.

I believe the Royals will discuss deals for their two highest paid relievers, Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, early, which makes a lot of sense. As free agency is in the early stages of this season, these relievers on the open market are still in the high demand phase of their search. The Royals would be wise to offer up Soria and Herrera as a much cheaper, much shorter investment alternative. Both pitchers are signed for just one more season. Herrera is estimated to earn $8.3 million in arbitration while Soria will be paid $9 million (and has a $1 million buyout on his 2019 mutual option). The market for Bryan Shaw has been hot and heavy. I expect he’ll sign this week and that’s when the Royals should pounce.

I don’t think they’ll get a huge haul back for Soria, but I think many would be surprised what Herrera would return. It wasn’t very long ago that he was one of the best setup men in baseball. While relievers can lose it at seemingly a moment’s notice, some team will bet on Herrera and his upper-90s fastball finding what made him great for the majority of his big league career. This seems like a move Alex Anthopolous might like to make to help stabilize the Braves bullpen as he begins to put his mark on the team. Whoever acquires him isn’t giving up a top four or five prospect in all likelihood, but I think the Royals could find someone who will slot firmly in their weak top 10.

While many might believe the Royals shouldn’t waste their time and money on a free agent, I can’t imagine they just rely on what they have in house right now. I’ve already talked about bringing back Mike Minor, which I believe they’d really like to do if they can work something out. Some others to watch for include some really uninspiring names, but the Royals will likely be in search of the almighty veteran presence to help out a young group of relievers. There are plenty who could see a minor league deal, but Luke Gregerson, Tommy Hunter and Sergio Romo are three names to keep an eye on early in free agency.

The waiting game the Royals appear to be playing is almost certainly going to cause them problems in building their 2018 roster. It may very well be that Dayton Moore and Company have a bigger plan in place if they are able to retain Hosmer. Perhaps they’re banking on selling him on the years beyond 2018 rather than an immediate return to winning. And if that’s the case, I suppose I can understand that. The Royals have enough internally that they don’t need to make any additions and can use the 2018 season to evaluate what they need.

Once they’ve done that and lose, they’ll see about $36 million leave their payroll and find themselves one year closer to a new television deal. Maybe just maybe they could find themselves ready to play in the most star-studded free agent class in awhile. As I’ve talked about before, while they almost certainly can’t compete for the top tier free agents, they may be able to sneak in and fight for some second tier players they typically wouldn’t have a chance to sign. Just about every position goes at least three or four deep with legitimate starters in next year’s free agent class, so sure, I guess I could buy that.

Even if that’s the plan, I don’t think it’s a risk worth taking for this team because there are just too many variables that make that nearly impossible to truly plan for. But that’s where we are right now. In the interim, it appears the Royals will continue their quest to work on implementing multiple plans that run contradictory to each other. And that includes being in the market for veteran, non-descript relievers. So get excited because that’s our best hope for news any time soon.

Once the game starts, it seems managers have very little impact. They can call on bits and pieces of strategy – a stolen base, a sacrifice bunt, etc. – or they can move personnel incrementally with a pinch hitter or a pinch runner. The area where all managers make their mark is with the bullpen. As we’ve seen, bullpens are fickle creatures. One year, they’re lights out and leading a team to October glory. The next, they’re merely pedestrian. Still, it’s the manager’s job to get the matchups correct. Using a bullpen is about setting up the situation so the pitchers succeed.

You know from following the Royals all season that Ned Yost kept his starters on a short leash. Gone were the days where the goal for the rotation to net 1,000 innings. It was replaced by a realpolitik style of management that was instead about survival. Getting through nine innings isn’t always so easy. Especially when your starting pitching is a crapshoot from night to night.

The stats back up the eye test. According to The Bill James Handbook, Yost was the most likely manager to get his starters out of the game before high pitch counts impacted his pitcher. Last year, Yost only allowed two of his pitchers to go more than 110 pitches in an outing. Ian Kennedy threw 111 pitches in a start against the Angels on April 16. In that outing, he allowed just two hits and two walks while whiffing 10 and going eight innings. He didn’t get the pitcher win, though. That went to Kelvin Herrera as Royals won 1-0, on an Alcides Escobar walkoff single.

The other start where a Royals pitcher threw more than 110 pitches was on September 6 when Jason Hammel got through six innings of work, allowing just two runs. Like Kennedy five months prior, he required 111 pitches while allowing nine hits and six strikeouts.

And that’s it. A total of two games where the Royals starters threw more than 110 pitches. The sweet spot for Yost seemed to be at the arbitrary century mark. His starters tallied more than 100 pitches in a start 36 times. Again, only twice did those pitchers extend beyond the Bill James defined “Long Outing” of 110 pitches. It’s a different game.

If Yost is keeping his starters on a short leash, it makes sense to discover he’s leaning on his bullpen more than ever. Indeed, Yost summoned a fresh bullpen arm 538 times last year. That’s a ton, but it wasn’t the most in baseball (Don Mattingly led the way in Miami going to his bullpen 580 times), although it was the most Yost had ever done it in his 14 year managerial career.

Of those, Yost went to a reliever who had pitched the day before 120 times. That was the most in the majors. Here’s how they fared.

The Royals 4.18 ERA when pitching on no rest was third worst in the AL, ahead of only Houston and Detroit. When those are the only teams you’re better than in a particular split, I’m not sure there are any sound conclusions to draw. Baseball happens, man.

Examining the table above, maybe in retrospect it wasn’t such a great idea throwing Peter Moylan and Kelvin Herrera when they had pitched the previous day. Both found outs more difficult to come by and were more likely to surrender the home run when working on no rest. On the other hand, the target of your bullpen ire, Joakim Soria, could more than hold his own when pitching without rest.

Certainly, the Royals bullpen of 2017 was a shadow of its former dominant self, and if the starters are unable to get deep into games (both in innings and as seen above on pitch count), it’s going to expose a shallow pool of relievers. Yost may not have wanted to go to Moylan or Herrera so frequently when they hadn’t had a proper amount of rest. Circumstances may have said otherwise.

(Quick aside: One of Moylan’s outings with no rest was easily my favorite relief appearance by a Royal this year. On September 23 against the White Sox, Yost summoned Moylan to face Tim Anderson with two runners on base and no one out. He threw exactly one pitch and hit Anderson. He then gave way to Scott Alexander. Somehow, it was the fourth time last year a reliever was brought into a game, threw one pitch, hit a batter and was removed.)

The Royals were the only team in baseball that didn’t record a save where the reliever pitched for more than an inning. Obviously, it’s not a common occurrence these days, but the average team had five outings where a reliever went more than an inning to collect the save. Even with noted Cyborg Wade Davis in the bullpen, Yost has been reticent about leaning too hard on his Saveman. The Royals had five outings where the save was earned with more than an inning of work in 2015 and 2016 combined. Some of that likely had to do with the fact the Royals suspected Greg Holland was pitching on borrowed time for most of 2015. Then again, when you have a three inning plan to cover the final nine outs, it’s not like you’re going to lean heavily on one particular pitcher.

In the larger picture, none of the above is a signal as to how Yost will manage his bullpen in 2018. There will be some new arms to go with the old guard and again, it will take some time to mix and match and figure out roles. Still, it can be interesting to see how it worked (or didn’t) in the past. The 2018 Royals will need more innings out of their starters and more reliability out of their bullpen if they’re to push above the .500 mark.

• If the Royals do go into 2018 with expectations to compete, the bullpen is going to need to be a major focus for them, which is going to be a difficult task given what they already have committed to the payroll for next season. I think we all feel good about Scott Alexander in the bullpen next year and for all the disappointment of the Padres trade, Ryan Buchter has actually been pretty good for the Royals as well. Kelvin Herrera looked as good as he’s looked all year on Tuesday night, and a bounceback season from him would be helpful. Then you add in Joakim Soria’s solid season (I know there will be arguments on that given the blown saves, but he’s been better than you probably realize) and that’s not a terrible base to work with. Still, I think they need at least one more impact arm. Mike Minor would be perfect if money was no object, but I fear he’ll be looking for a deal like Brett Cecil got last season from the Cardinals and the Royals really don’t need to be spending $30 million plus on a reliever. The odds are that if they don’t spend big, which as a reminder, they shouldn’t, they’ll need to find a surprise either in the minor league system or a free agent. Whatever it is they do, the bullpen will need to be addressed.
• After the free agents leave, assuming they mostly do, this is going to be an organization filled with role players at the top. Having role players is not a bad thing at all. Great teams need role players, but they need stars as well. As much fun as it’s been to watch Whit Merrifield this year, if he’s your best player, you’re probably a bad team. If he’s a supporting player to your other three best, you have a chance to be pretty good. Right now, looking at the 2018 roster, there isn’t a star in the bunch, other than maybe Danny Duffy on the pitching staff, but even he hasn’t shown he can be a true star yet. The key for the Royals both next year and in the near future is Raul Mondesi, and I really wish he’d have gotten more at bats down the stretch. Hitting .305/.340/.539 in Triple-A with 41 extra base hits in just 357 plate appearances has made me hopeful again that he can be that top line player the Royals need so badly. He has looked much more comfortable in this stint in the big leagues, but he’s also played sparingly and had just eight at bats, so I don’t think that tells us much. I just know that if the Royals want to get back to the promised land relatively quickly, they need Mondesi to step up and soon. And realistically, they need someone else to step up as well. I see a few options, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in any of them. Hunter Dozier and Jorge Soler could be those guys if they take huge steps forward, but it might be a couple years while the guys in the lower levels progress through the system before we see someone else who could help support the role players.
• There is a bit of a problem with the Royals needing Mondesi and it’s that I’m terrified of what might happen with Alcides Escobar. Heading into action on Thursday night, he’d hit .333/.353/.512 in his last 56 games, spanning 171 plate appearances. That’s 54 hits with 20 extra base hits. The encouraging thing about it is that he’s only struck out in 10.5 percent of those plate appearances, so the extra contact will help a little bit, but he hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball with plenty of soft contact in that time. I have about the biggest worry I can that the Royals will look at this stretch and see Escobar as a player who just had a tough start to the season and will re-sign him to a one or two year deal. He was never truly as bad as he was during his horrifically slow start, but at the same time, he is not nearly as good as he’s been lately. If the Royals want Mondesi to develop into a star, he needs to be the shortstop. I have no doubt he could handle second or even center field as some have mentioned, but he needs to play shortstop, so the Royals better not re-sign Escobar or else I’ll write a strongly worded article about it, and ain’t nobody wanting that.
• This season hasn’t gone as we all hoped from the start, but there have been plenty of ups to go along with the downs that we would all like to forget. It’s been a season of wondering how the Royals would handle the core offensive players leaving, and now we’re about to find out. But through it all, you’ve been right there with us, so I just wanted to take this brief opportunity to thank you for going through this ride with us at BP Kansas City. We’ll do it again next year with a whole different cast and crew to get mad at for things out of our control.

After dropping three of four to the hotter-than-the-sun Cleveland Indians, the Royals find themselves five games back in the hunt for the final Wild Card. They have 13 games remaining.

On the surface, that doesn’t seem insurmountable. Besides, these Royals are known for having a card or two hidden up their sleeve. They’ve surprised the baseball world enough the last few seasons, there’s no one left to register any kind of disbelief should they find the energy to summon one final charge to glory. One more great escape.

If only it were that simple.

The number to fixate on isn’t the games back in the standings. Rather, at this point it’s the elimination number. The Royals elimination number currently stands at nine, meaning the Royals can afford no more than a combination of nine losses of their own along with wins by the Twins. The math is the math. If the Royals lose four games the rest of the way, but the Twins win five, the Royals are toast. That doesn’t even take into consideration the other teams still jockeying for position.

It’s complicated, but what is certain is the tightrope thins a bit at this point.

With two full weeks remaining, the Royals could find themselves eliminated by the close of baseball business Friday.

The dynamics of the Wild Card race (or if you prefer, the race for the second Wild Card because that’s what we’re actually discussing) has been most bizarre. With a number of teams grouped within striking distance for weeks, it looked like it would come down to the wire. Those of us who root for chaos in their playoff races dared to dream there could be a two or three team tie for the final spot, throwing the October schedule into some kind of manic frenzy. The Royals haven’t controlled their own destiny for some time but have been lurking for most of the second half of the season within reasonable striking distance, giving them a decent chance.

That doesn’t seem likely anymore. Especially after the wild card carnage of the last week.

While five teams have either 74 or 73 wins (including the Royals), all five have stumbled while the Twins have flipped over to cruise control. They don’t seem as intent on running away with the playoff spot as they are just not screwing up everything.

Here’s how the last week played out among the alleged contenders:

Impressive. You would think with the Twins winning a respectable four out of six games this week there would be at least one out of the six teams giving chase that could hang with them. You would think wrong.

All of the teams listed above have serious flaws that would, in a normal season, preclude them from participating beyond the end of the regular season. It’s almost as if this motley bunch is aware of this and are reticent about actually competing. Does anyone here really want to win the second Wild Card?

There’s still a chance the Twins turn into a baseball pumpkin and one of the teams awash in mediocrity catches a modest amount of fire to turn this in to some sort of race.

This may seem harsh, but the reality is one of the flaws plaguing the Royals is a lack of general good health. The team said on Saturday that they would give their walking wounded (Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, along with Lorenzo Cain) the day off on Sunday so with the team traveling on Monday, they would have the benefit of a full 48 hours of rest. Then, they would turn them loose for the final two weeks of the season. Moustakas himself admitted he could use “three or four or five days” to help his ailing knee.

Was anyone really surprised when Ned Yost summoned Moustakas for a pinch hit attempt in the eighth inning?

It’s the 2017 Royals in a nutshell. They know they shouldn’t do something. They announce their intentions. The intentions make a ton of sense. Yet, in the end, they just can’t help themselves. Here you have Moustakas, who is playing on a bum knee. He’s literally limping to the finish line. Over his last 22 games (prior to Sunday) he’s hit .194/.275/.264. He hit his 35th home run on August 15. He’s hit one since. That record he looked to obliterate? He may not even own it outright by the time the season is over.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, but who thought Moustakas on a bad knee was a better option than Cheslor Cuthbert who has two fully functional lower limbs? Besides Yost.

This isn’t a Willis Reed moment. Moustakas swinging meekly at a pair of curves – one off the plate away and another in the upper middle part of the zone – isn’t going to inspire a comeback. Especially if that moment comes with two down in the eighth, extinguishing the Royals best, final opportunity for a run.

Squint and you can see the good news. Danny Duffy returned from the disabled list and an unsavory off the field moment to pitch five strong innings, striking out eight. Joakim Soria tossed a scoreless eighth. Brandon Moss is coming through in important situations.

Still, it’s not enough to overcome the AL Central champions.

The season isn’t over yet, but last rites were administered in Cleveland. The real possibility is this team will be officially eliminated from October consideration by the time they return to The K for their final six games of the season. Another season of promise cut prematurely short.

Full disclosure, I speculated during the off-season that Davis might be approaching the end of the line.  He had, after all, missed time due to injury twice during 2016 and upon returning in September had allowed 11 hits in 9.2 innings of work along with 3 runs.  Not bad numbers, but maybe not WADE DAVIS numbers. Relievers, closers especially, have a tendency to fall off the cliff. Trade a somewhat expensive reliever with some question marks (however ‘gut’ related and possibly unfounded they might be!) for a young, controllable everyday player with lots of potential?  Yes, I was onboard.

It might yet yield positive results, but this trade certainly did not work out in 2017.  Soler has been a non-factor in the major leagues for Kansas City. In-house option, Jorge Bonifacio has surpassed what Soler has provided by a huge margin. Meanwhile, Wade Davis is 29 for 29 in save opportunities for the Cubs in 2017.  Oh, my friends, what if?

To be fair, Davis has been very good this year, but not perfect. He has allowed four home runs, which is one more than the three previous seasons combined.  Davis has allowed a run to score in 9 of his 51 appearances and in four of those nine has allowed two runs. Fun fact, the Chicago Cubs have won eight of the nine games in which Davis allowed a run. The only blemish was a loss to Arizona on August 3rd in which Davis allowed two home runs.  The last time Wade Davis allowed two home runs in a game was back in May of 2013 when he was still a starter.

By contrast, Kelvin Herrera has allowed a run or more in 17 of his 56 appearances.  Nine times he has allowed two runs or more and in four of those nine he allowed three runs or more.  Davis, by the way, has not been charged with three runs in a relief appearance since September 28, 2012. In those 17 runs-allowed appearances by Herrera, the Royals won eight times, which leaves us nine games (by very crude logic) hanging in the balance.

Does Davis give up a home run to Jake Marisnick on April 9th (Herrera’s first blown save)? You can say he does not, but Davis has allowed four homers this season. This was one bad pitch and an otherwise good inning in a game the Royals would eventually lose in twelve innings. We can dig in deeper here and envision a different reliever usage for this game, too, with both Herrera and Davis in the bullpen, but you can also stretch alternative reality scenarios so far that they have no relation to the reality we currently reside in if you are not careful. (Yes, I watch Star Trek, shut up.)

On April 30th, Herrera gave up a run in the top of the ninth with to Minnesota with the Royals already down by two.  Kansas City would score a run in the bottom of the ninth, but still lose by two. Nothing to see here, move along.

May 6th against Cleveland is a game that might well stand out. Leading 1-0, Joakim Soria gave up a run in the top of the eighth to tie the game.  Herrera entered in the ninth, still tied, and gave up back to back home runs. With Davis on the roster, does Herrera pitch the 8th more effectively than Soria?  Again, here we are changing history in the 8th inning, the 9th inning and possibly beyond.

Herrera’s next blown save came on May 19th against Minnesota where he allowed a two run home run with Kansas City leading 3-1.  The Royals would lose this game in the tenth inning, a frame in which they pitched Al Alburquerque and Travis Wood.   Prior to Herrera, Kansas City threw Matt Strahm, Mike Minor and Soria for an inning apiece.  You do the math here, but Davis in the pen likely means that either Strahm or Minor is available to pitch the 10th, ASSUMING Wade blows a two run ninth inning lead – something he has not done all year for the Cubs.  This one stands out a bit more to me as ‘Wade Davis might have mattered game’.

The next runs allowed in a loss occurrence on Herrera’s ledger came on June 5th when he entered a game against Houston with the Royals down 4-3 and allowed three runs (two earned) in the top of the ninth to seal the team’s fate. Too many ifs and buts to say Davis makes a difference, but worth noting nonetheless. Later in that same series, Herrera entered a tie game on June 8th (1-1) in the top of the ninth, faces five, retires one and the Royals lose 6-1.

On July 1st, Kelvin entered a game once more in the top of the ninth with his team down 7-5 and surrenders three runs (two earned) to Minnesota. Later in the month, on the 19th, Herrera would blow a save against Detroit, but Kansas City would win the game despite the allowance of a two-run home run to Mikie Mahtook.

The last two games are fresher for all of us.  Last Thursday, Herrera would blow a 2-1 lead over Minnesota by allowing three runs in the top of the ninth. To be fair, Herrera did not get a ton of defensive help on the Jason Castro ‘single’ to short left, but he also walked the intimidating Robbie Grossman after that, so he hardly gets a pass on this game, either.  Herrera’s part of this ninith inning featured two singles, two walks (one intentional) and a sacrifice fly. I do not feel like that happens against Wade Davis.

Just to cover all the bases and rub some more salt in the wound, Herrera’s last runs allowed in a Royals’ loss, came the next night when he entered in the eighth, down by a run and allowed two additional runs before being excused from further work.

In reviewing the above, I look at the games on April 9th, May 19th and September 7th as the three that one could make a very reasonable argument that Kansas City wins if Wade Davis is on the roster. Given that the first two of those three came down mostly to one bad pitch that left the yard, a logical view says Davis blows a save in at least one of those.  We could also fancy a reality in which one of the two tie games (May 6th and June 8th) goes the Royals’ way with Davis in place of or in addition to Herrera.

Take those five games and change a Royals’ loss to a win in three of them?  One could very certainly make that case.  In doing so, however, we have to honestly ask if Herrera would have performed any better back in his set up role versus being the closer.  In doing so, it would be wise to remember that Joakim Soria allowed runs in just two of his first 22 appearances in 2017.  Conversely, as rocky as Herrera has been, would he have given up four runs to Minnesota on April 28th and four to Detroit on May 29th as Soria did in the eighth inning of games his team entered with the lead?

We could also factor in the idea that despite the trials and tribulations of both Herrera and Soria, they certainly offered a level of effectiveness somewhere beyond that exhibited by Travis Wood, Neftali Feliz, Al Alburquerque and so forth and so on.  There are fifty some innings worth of Wade Davis that are taken not from Soria and Herrera but from the bottom portion of the Royals’ bullpen. No, I don’t have the spreadsheets to prove this, but common sense tells you it almost has to have some sort of knock-on effect to the positive.

In the end, taking all the theories of the preceding three paragraphs and remembering that, contrary to what we remember, Wade Davis is also a human being and not an android, it would still seem that you could piece together a three game swing to the positive for the Kansas City Royals. I might even allow discussion of Davis changing the stars on four games, but that might be stretching it.

Still, three more wins.  How would you feel about the Royals’ playoff chances if they had three more wins?

The Royals didn’t take advantage of a matchup with Cleveland but they haven’t really lost ground on the teams in the wild card race.

Despite injuries, their September schedule will give them a shot at the playoffs, but they’re going to have to take charge themselves, rather than expect the league to help them out. It gets tougher when the Royals bullpen is running on fumes, and with injuries to Neftali Feliz, Joakim Soria, and Kelvin Herrera, their depth will be tested.

And in a short week, Mike Moustakas didn’t even break the home run record yet. Next week, perhaps, would be nice.

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• I guess we should start with the bullpen because that’s the hot topic. It looks like Joakim Soria is going to miss some time with the now popular intercostal strain, which should make some fans very happy. And I get it. He’s blown more leads than we care to remember and you can make an argument that his performance, especially late last season, was a driving force in the Royals missing the postseason in 2016. I’ve written about this before, but I think it’s worth mentioning again. Soria has both been better than you think and is still (when healthy) one of the better options for the late inning work. There are four relievers other than Soria who have been in KC most or all of the season – Kelvin Herrera, Mike Minor, Peter Moylan and Scott Alexander. The only one of them with a higher percentage of his outings ending without allowing a run is Moylan. That’s not even remotely close to a perfect metric for evaluating a reliever, but with seemingly everyone struggling and needing someone to pitch the other innings, the options just aren’t great right now. For my money, I’d believe in Mike Minor given what he’s done all season, but he’s allowed seven runs in his last 9.1 innings, which is six of his last eight games. I certainly don’t believe in Brandon Maurer. Maybe they should give Ryan Buchter a shot at the eighth inning given his swing and miss stuff. But unless they’re willing to use Herrera for more than three outs (and that’s probably the real answer here), while Soria hasn’t impressed, the options are thin.
• Jorge Bonifacio has had an interesting season at the plate. From when he was called up to June 4^th, he hit .281/.338/.496 with seven homers. He was walking at a decent clip and striking out a fair amount, but he looked the part of a big league regular. The reason I chose June 4^th is because that’s when he was moved to the number two spot in the lineup and struggled a bit as he adjusted to being pitched differently. This is all arbitrary, but in the first 17 games at the top of the lineup, he hit .179/.267/.358. Then, as young hitters do, he turned it around, showing that he could make adjustments. He hit .302/.374/.490 in his next 24 games before the Royals went to Boston where things started to fall apart for him. He’s hit .171/.244/.244 since, and I believe there’s a reason for it. Well, I think there are two reasons for it. One, his decreased playing time isn’t helping. Just like Cheslor Cuthbert, young guys used to playing every day sometimes struggle in part time roles. But two, he’s struggled with big league fastballs, which isn’t a great sign for him moving forward. This season, he’s hit just .221 with a .368 slugging percentage on four-seam fastballs. The common denominator during both his slumps is that he was seeing more fastballs during that time. In his most recent, he’s seen fastballs about 45 percent of the time, up from 33 percent early in the year and 38 percent a few weeks ago. In particular, the hard fastballs are eating him up. He’s hitting just .227 with a .273 slugging percentage on fastballs 95 mph or more. Pitchers have adjusted to Bonifacio. It’s time for him to adjust back if he wants to make it in the big leagues.
• I think I hit this rant a couple times per year, but I guess it’s time for it again. Stop using Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as gospel. Just stop. If you haven’t started yet, don’t start. FIP has its value, without a doubt, but the implication with FIP is that pitchers have zero control over batted balls that are not home runs, and that’s just silly. I’m not smart enough to tell you the coefficients or the formulas to determine what impact pitchers do have on batted balls, but to say a pitcher literally only impacts the number of walks, strikeouts and home runs they allow is a blatant misunderstanding of the game. Like any statistic, I think FIP can be part of the equation of evaluating a pitcher, but in my mind, there are far better ERA predictors out there to use, such as DRA from Baseball Prospectus and SIERA from Fangraphs. Both of these statistics acknowledge that not every batted ball is simply the product of luck and incorporates that into the equation. If you want to keep using FIP, that’s fine, but just know that it’s more flawed than many other alternatives.
• As we do, let’s talk schedule and what the Royals need to do moving forward. Their next 12 games have a chance to define the season. They have six against the Indians, three against the Rockies and three against the Rays. While the Rays have fallen on hard times, we’ve seen what one good week can do in the Wild Card race. Basically, it comes down to this. If the Royals can take two of three in every series, not only will they likely have created a much easier path to the playoffs, but the division will still be in play. If they lose every series, they would become big time longshots to even get to the postseason. Following this stretch, they have 13 games against the Twins, Tigers and White Sox before heading to Cleveland to play them once more. If they can go 8-4 in this stretch and then take care of the business they’re supposed to take care of and do something like 9-4, they’ll be sitting at 78-67 and that series against Cleveland could be with the opportunity to take over the AL Central lead. The minimum to me in the next 12 games is 6-6 and then 8-5 in the 13 games following it. A 74-71 record might have them in a playoff spot or at least close enough that the dream isn’t dead. Either way, these next 12 will set the table for either a really fun (and likely hair graying) September or a month-long going away party for the pending free agents in the core.