Note: All advanced stats through action on Tuesday.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 7:15 pm

A quick look at the ERA and DRA difference for Gonsalves shows he’s been a little unlucky in his 12.1 innings at the big league level. Okay fine, so he’s been terrible either way. The royals had their way with him in Minnesota, but unfortunately his opponent then and in this one couldn’t hold a big lead after the Royals got to him in the third. In his big league career, he’s walked 13 and struck out six. I don’t care if you have talent, that doesn’t play. The sample is obviously tiny, but in 16 plate appearances against lefties, he’s allowed a ridiculous .429 ISO. Righties have hit him hard too, but yikes. The stuff just isn’t there for him. He throws his midding fastball a lot and of his secondary pitches, only his slider has been even close to being worth a damn. He didn’t last long last week, so nobody has more than two plate appearances against him, but the hits came from Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Modnesi, Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield. I sort of have a hunch that if Hunter Dozier plays, he’ll have a big game against Gonsalves too.

Fillmyer continues to never allow me to either buy in or sell on him. For the second time in just 10 starts, he was given a big lead that he coughed up relatively quickly. This time, the Royals plated six in the third against these very same Twins and he promptly gave up four and couldn’t escape the third. It was reminiscent of his start against the White Sox where he had a 6-0 lead and couldn’t get out of the fourth before giving that up. The Twins have proven to be a struggle for him with nine runs allowed in just 5.1 innings. Luckily this game is in the comfort of Kauffman Stadium where he’s 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven games and has allowed just 31 hits in 39 innings and only two home runs. Maybe that’ll help him get over the hump against the Twins.

Friday – 7:15 pm

The Royals just saw Berrios a few days ago and he was very good, going six innings and allowing just a run on three hits. Expect to see Alcides Escobar in this one as his .353/.353/.706 line against him will make him a must-start for the Royals…for some reason. Berrios has continued his success against the Royals this year after struggling his first two seasons. He’s now 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this year. His last bad start against the Royals was July 1^st last year, so maybe he’s due.

Lopez gets to make his next start following his near-perfect game against the team he almost threw it against. He was magnificent last week against the Twins, obviously, and following that game was one of the greatest highlights of a terrible season. I’ve long been a believer that Lopez is a reliever long-term, as I’ve said before, but he seems to be doing everything he can in his last two starts to get me to change my mind. The big thing for me in the past has been that he just begins to struggle a bit at 50 pitches or so. In his last two starts, opponents have hit .174/.208/.174 against him after the 50^th pitch. Sure that’s arbitrary and it’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging. Now let’s see him do it again.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

De Jong had his first start since last season against the Royals last weekend and looked pretty good, giving up just one hit in four innings, though he walked four. He uses a four-seam fastball that doesn’t have much zip quite often and then mixes in a slider and changeup, both of which were quite effective against the Royals last week. The sample is tiny, but his fastball has been hit around in his career, so if he lives on that too much, a young lineup like the Royals that hunts mediocre fastballs should be able to do some damage. He’s allowed a .300/.394/.483 line to lefties in his career, which seems to be a good sign for guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin and Adalberto Mondesi.

Like it or not, Kennedy is signed up for two more years and will at least be part of the rotation to start next season, so his performance against the Twins on Sunday was really encouraging. I loved the six innings with one run on four hits, but I really loved 14 swinging strikes in just 93 pitches. His fastball, which is so important, was absolutely outstanding. If he’s going to provide value again, he’s going to need that fastball to be doing its thing.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

It’s been a nice season for Gibson with the most strikeouts of his career while his walk rate has remained mostly steady. Between the extra swings and misses and the lack of hits allowed, he’s looking like he might have made some sustainable changes to keep him as a solid number three starter for the next couple years at least. If we’re being honest, given his affordable salary and inconsistent track record, the Twins would probably be wise to shop him this offseason. Gibson has been dynamite when ahead in the count, allowing just a .168/.176/.284 line to opponents with just 12 extra base hits in 194 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a reason to not believe, he’s allowed a .244/.332/.420 line with the bases empty and .191/.258/.255 with runners in scoring position. That bases empty line is pretty much in line with what he’s allowed on the whole in his career, so there’s a decent bet that’s who he is and he’s had some strand luck. I guess we’ll see next year if it can carry over.

Junis is going to earn himself a reputation as a second half master. In 123.2 innings after the break in his young career, he’s 10-3 with a 3.20 ERA. This year, he’s 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA since coming off the DL, which also coincides with the break ending. The 58 strikeouts and 12 walks in 60.1 innings are really encouraging and he’s now gone four straight starts without issuing a walk, with the streak reaching 116 batters. That’s pretty good. He’s been a horse in his last three starts too, going 24 innings with 15 hits allowed and 18 strikeouts. The home runs crept back in a little bit in his last start with two in the third, so that’s something to keep an eye on, but he’s just been so good recently that we’re back to anxiously awaiting each Junis start.

Four game sets are often split, and four-game sets between two teams with nothing to play for probably are even more so (don’t look that up). So yeah, I’ll say a split. I know, I know…boring.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

Gonsalves came into the season as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball according to both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline and had a really nice minor league season, posting a 2.76 ERA in 23 games and 120.2 innings with just 76 hits allowed. The big leagues have been a bit less kind to him as he’s allowed 19 hits and 10 walks in 10 innings while striking out just five. He’s a big guy, standing at 6’5”, but isn’t really a power arm with his changeup leading the way for him. His fastball is low-90s and his breaking stuff has a chance to be good someday. The control issues are curious and might just be a bit of nerves combined with maybe some fatigue as he’s now thrown 21 more innings than last season, though it’s not a career high for him, so who knows really? As a big leaguer, the sample is miniscule, but he hasn’t been able to get out lefties or righties with a .333/.429/.750 line allowed to lefties and .429/.545/.600 to righties. He had a reverse split in the minors this season, which is often a result of the changeup being the best pitch since they don’t throw it left on left as much.

Fillmyer just keeps sucking me back in. After he imploded against the White Sox a couple weeks ago and lost a six-run lead, I figured that was it. Then he went out and threw 13 innings in his last two starts with three runs allowed and a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Yes, one of those starts was against the Orioles, and yes there are still underlying issues with Fillmyer, but I’ll repeat what I’ve said a million times this year. Why not see what he is? He started against the Twins in Minnesota at the beginning of August and lasted just three innings during that weird rain delay game and was hit fairly hard and only had four swinging strikes in 70 pitches. He’ll need to be better in this one for the Royals to get a win, even if the offense supports him.

Saturday – 6:10 pm

I mentioned Berrios has been disappointing, which seems odd to say for a guy who is having a solid enough season, but after last year’s step forward, it really just seemed like another one was coming and it hasn’t. He has increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate, so that part is good, but he’s also been more homer prone this season, which has given back some of the gains from the better strikeout and walk numbers. Really he’s just giving up a little more hard contact in general, and for a pitcher with the stuff he has, you wouldn’t expect that. Still, his curve is outstanding and has been even better this year than last, and when his fastball is on, he can be nearly unhittable with those two pitches. And, like Gonslaves, his changeup is a plus pitch as well, so really you’re talking about a guy who should be an ace, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the breakout was just delayed a year and he’s incredible next season. He has a 4.99 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals, but a lot of that was damage done during his terrible rookie season and last year. This year, he’s 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings.

Again, the Orioles caveat applies here, but Lopez had the best start of his career his last time out, going seven innings and allowing just a run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks. He had 14 swinging strikes in 99 pitches, which is truly amazing, and very encouraging no matter who he was facing. I think his curve was talked up quite a bit, but his slider was insane last week with six whiffs out of 17 pitches and outs were recorded on all four put in play. If he can bring that slider and that curve to this game, he’ll be just fine against the Twins. Personally, I still have my doubts that he’s a starter in the long run, but please refer to Fillmyer, Heath regarding why not. In his career as a starter, he’s held opponents to a .220/.278/.320 line the first time through before that balloons to .413/.500/.543 the second time. The sample is tiny, but it’s a trend that isn’t promising. But again, let’s see if he can do it again against a team not as bad as the Orioles, but certainly not good.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

After back-to-back matching 5.07 ERAs for Gibson, he’s finally doing what he did in 2015 for the Twins, just in time for his final year of arbitration before free agency. The biggest difference is that he’s just getting more strikeouts and more swings and misses in general. How has he gotten there? His slider has always been a great swing and miss pitch, but it’s been even better this year, so that’s one. Another is that his curve has been outstanding for whiffs with a 47.3 percent whiff rate, compared to 36 percent last year. And with that, I think his changeup has played up too and he’s allowed a .114 average on it, compared to .271 last season. He still throws his sinker quite a bit to get those worm burners, but the swings and misses have made him a truly different pitcher. And the Royals have seen quite a bit of him over the years. This will be his 18^th start against Kansas City, and it seems like he’s almost always annoyingly good with a 3.40 ERA in 106 innings. This year has been more of the same. In 12.1 innings, he’s struck out 13 Royals, walked three and posted a 2.92 ERA. Alex Gordon has done well against him, and Hunter Dozier has two doubles in seven at bats against him, which isn’t a sample worth noting other than the fact that Dozier has been a doubles machine lately, so maybe he can carry that over.

Junis is on one now and looking like the guy we were so excited about in spring training and earlier this year. With seven two-hit, shutout innings against the Indians (with no walks, I might add), he’s padded his post-DL stats some more now having gone 52.1 innings in nine starts with 49 hits allowed, 53 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA. The six unearned runs still loom, but even adding those in, he’s still at just a 3.78 RA, which is perfectly acceptable. I’ll say again what I’ve said a few times since his DL stint as well. With just three home runs allowed, it maybe does lend some credence to the idea that his back was a bigger problem than we originally thought. He’s faced the Twins twice this year and once since coming off the disabled list (his first start off). He’s gone 10 innings, allowed four runs on 10 hits with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He was solid against them last year too, so maybe this is just a good matchup for him.

The Twins are looking to next season and maybe they’re just figuring out a way to get through the season with some of the Rays “opener” strategy or maybe they’re looking to next season, but either way, it’s at least interesting. Hopefully, Salvador Perez can come back for this series given his crazy numbers at Target Field. If he does, I say they win two of three. If not, I say they win two of three.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:10 pm

As I mentioned when the Royals took on the Twins after the break, Odorizzi is having a strong season in some capacities, such as in his strikeout rate, which is still the second highest of his career, but he’s just walking too many batters, a problem that really arose last season. He doesn’t have the best stuff in the world in spite of the strikeouts, so he gives up his fair share of hits as well. With all those base runners, it’s no surprise he’s having a bit of a rough season. But he, of course, pitched quite well against the Royals a couple weeks back, going six innings and giving up just two hits and one walk and two runs with eight strikeouts. This is a slightly different Royals team he’s facing, so it’s hard to say that what he did then is indicative of what he’ll do in this one. The number that jumps out to me with Odorizzi is his innings pitched. He’s averaging just five innings per start and has only faced one batter after the sixth this season. It makes sense. The third time through the order, he’s allowed a .372/.450/.872 line. But with the Twins bullpen being shaken up a bit, they may find that they run into even more problems with a guy like Odorizzi for the rest of the year.

Fillmyer was really impressive in his start against Detroit a week or so ago, and then came back and held his own in Yankee Stadium against a tough lineup. The issue that I believe he’ll always run into is that he just doesn’t miss enough bats. He missed bats against the Tigers and had a really nice outing, but he only had three swings and misses against the Yankees. This Twins lineup is somewhere in between those two lineups, so I’d say it’s sort of a tossup, but his ground ball tendencies are good to see against a team that likes to lift the ball, so maybe he can have another nice outing here. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins in his career, so history will be made when he throws his first pitch.

Saturday – 6:10 pm

After a really strong year in 2017, it was expected that Berrios would take the next step to stardom in 2018, and while he hasn’t quite gotten there, he’s had a very nice season. He’s upped his strikeouts, lowered his walks and been harder to hit. And when he’s gotten deep into games, he’s taken control, allowing a .140/.222/.246 line from the seventh inning on. That’s impressive for a young pitcher. He uses a four-seamer at about 94 MPH, a two-seamer just a tick slower and a curve for the majority of his pitches, but he keeps hitters honest with a changeup that he uses early in the count to lefties mostly, and it gets hit with four of his home runs allowed on that, all to lefties. I could see a scenario where Berrios tries to mess up some timing on the young guys and Brett Phillips and Ryan O’Hearn both can do some damage if he hangs it. Berrios faced the Royals once this year, on July 9^th, and gave up just one run on six hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts and no walks in a 3-1 Twins win. He’s struggled against the Royals overall in his career, but a lot of that was his rookie season. He’s changed and the Royals have changed.

I was expecting Smith to get lit up in New York and he really didn’t, allowing just two extra base hits in four innings, but the overall line was rough with five runs allowed in four innings. He also was coming off a nice start against the Tigers where he got 16 swings and misses. That’s crazy. His changeup is the key for him. He’s allowed a .208 average on it with a .354 slugging percentage this season and it’s accounted for 16 of his strikeouts this year and just one home run allowed. Twins hitters have hit right-handed changeups very well this season. Eddie Rosario has hit .375 in 40 at bats and five current hitters have a .475 SLG or higher against them. That doesn’t mean he can’t succeed with it, but it’ll be a tough test for him even though this isn’t a great lineup.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

Santana’s season just began because a finger injury wiped out more than half of it, which was a big blow to the Twins chances in 2018. Since returning, he hasn’t been good, but the sample is quite small as you can see above. He has allowed three home runs in 13 hits in those 10.1 innings and only struck out six, but he’s able to control the ball at least with just three walks allowed. Velocity is WAY down in his two starts with his four-seamer averaging just 90 MPH and his sinker averaging 89. Even his slider is only averaging 81-82 after sitting about three miles per hour higher last season. And after allowing a .154 average with a .260 slugging percentage on the slider last year, he’s given up a .385 average and .769 slugging percentage so far. Again, the sample is tiny, but given that he’s coming back from an injury that could impact his ability to manipulate the ball, it’s worth noting. Santana is 7-10 with a 4.71 ERA in 25 career starts against the Royals, but other than Whit Merrifield, nobody has done much damage against him and even Whit doesn’t have much of a sample.

Unlike Fillmyer and Smith, Duffy was coming off a bad start against the Tigers and followed it up with a solid enough start against the White Sox. He didn’t allow a run, but he only went 5.2 innings and he gave up six hits and four walks. He did get seven strikeouts with 17 swings and misses, so that’s a good thing, but the underlying numbers weren’t that encouraging. And he’s throwing a ton of pitches, exceeding 100 for the sixth straight start and the eighth time in his last nine. It’s not that big of a deal when he’s going seven innings, but he’s thrown 219 pitches in his last two starts and only gone 11.1 innings. He handled the Twins easily in Kansas City after the break and actually has been great against them all season, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings over three starts, so this is a matchup that does seem to favor him. Hopefully, it can continue to favor him.

Why not? Let’s call it another Royals series win because they’ve handled the Twins just fine this year and seem to be feeling good about themselves with the new blood in the lineup.

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:10pm

Berrios was just named to the AL All-Star team, and he’s having a really nice season to build on his breakout from a year ago. He’s striking out more hitters than last year, walking fewer and he’s been even more difficult to hit. Home runs have been a bit of a problem, and he does hit quite a few batters, so Royals hitters should watch out for that, but Berrios is very good and should pose a problem for a limp offense. The biggest issue for Berrios this season has actually been his changeup, which he doesn’t throw much. He’s given up just seven hits with it, but five of them have been for extra bases, including four home runs. A couple things I find interesting about him are that he has no discernable platoon splits, which is a good thing for him. Also, he’s fantastic at home with a 6-2 record and 2.62 ERA in 10 starts with 77 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. He has a 6.66 ERA in 25.2 career innings against the Royals with five home runs allowed. I imagine that will change in this one.

Duffy has still been pretty good over his last eight starts now, with a 3.44 ERA over 49.2 innings. His last start didn’t go well, falling apart in the sixth inning when he allowed a grand slam to Yan Gomes. The encouraging thing over his last two starts has been fewer walks with just four over his last 12 innings. If he maintains that rate, things will be okay for him in that regard. He didn’t get the swings and misses that he had in previous starts, but even so, it’s nice to see him pitching to the level the Royals have expected of him. He’s faced the Twins once this year and allowed one run over six innings, though he did walk four. He’s 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 18 games and 89 innings against the Twins with Robbie Grossman and Jorge Polanco hitting him quite well in 18 and 12 plate appearances respectively.

Tuesday – 7:10pm

Slegers is seeing big league action for the second season, and after struggling last year, he’s been solid in his first two appearances of 2018. His first appearance of the year was actually against the Royals in the last offensive outburst this team has had, and he went 5.1 innings, allowing two runs on six hits and calming things down to give the Twins a shot to get back in the game. He’s certainly not a top of the rotation starter, but he’s put up good numbers in AAA in each of the last two seasons. If he’s going to be successful in the big leagues, it will be as a control pitcher who somehow keeps the ball in the yard. If he struggles, it’ll be because he doesn’t strike out enough hitters and no amount of control can fix that. His stuff is middling. He throws his fastball at 90-91, a slider that doesn’t move much and a decent looking changeup that has been his best pitch over his career. The sample is so small that it hardly matters, but in his career, he’s allowed eight hits in 20 at bats that end on the first pitch with three home runs. Given his solid control, getting started early in the count isn’t the worst idea.

Kennedy is scheduled to come off the DL for this start, and has been much better over his last few starts, posting a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings over his last five. He’s allowed five home runs in that time, so things aren’t all different for him, but that’s at least encouraging. Of course, the issue I’ve been worried about with him all season is that he just isn’t getting any whiffs this year, which means his once difficult to hit fastball is getting squared up way too often. It’s been a tale of two seasons for Kennedy in his matchups against the Twins with the Royals. In 2016, he was quite good with a 2.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. Last year, he posted a 6.43 ERA in five starts spanning 21 innings and walked 14 batters. Given the way this season is going, I have to imagine that’ll be more like 2017 Kennedy vs. the Twins, but at least he’s had some relatively recent success against them.

Wednesday – 12:10pm

The Lance Lynn signing hasn’t gone great for the Twins, though he’s been much better recently, going 5-3 with a 3.49 ERA in his last nine starts, and that includes a disaster start against the Cubs when he gave up seven runs in 1.2 innings. The biggest issue for him has been walks, and that’s still been a bit of a problem even on his recent run of success. Lynn relies heavily on his four-seamer and his two-seamer, throwing them a combined three-quarters of the time. The four-seamer has been a big problem with nine doubles, a triple and seven home runs allowed on it. The two-seamer hasn’t been as bad with the power numbers, but he’s allowed a .304 average. When the pitches you rely on the most have been hit like that, it’s easy to see why his numbers are subpar. Like Berrios, he’s been WAY better at home, posting a 2.53 ERA over eight starts. Unlike Berrios, the underlying numbers aren’t any better. He’s struck out fewer and walked more at home, but he’s just been more difficult to square up. I’m not sure if that’s anything sustainable or just random chance. He was the winning pitcher in the Twins victory over the Royals this year, going six innings and giving up two runs on six hits with three walks allowed.

Smith gets the chance to start after Jason Hammel finally got demoted to the bullpen. Even though Buddy Bell says that things can always get worse, I don’t think this can be any worse than Hammel’s last starts and Smith did a fantastic job in relief of Hammel the other night. He’s started before in the big leagues and pitched quite well as a starter in the minor leagues last season, posting a 2.40 ERA across three levels and was at his best in AAA. I’m skeptical he can make it work as a starter in the big leagues, but it’ll at least be nice to see some new blood. He faced the Twins twice when they visited Kansas City, and let’s just say that things didn’t go well. He allowed seven runs on five hits with three walks over three innings in those two games. I guess the idea is that this start goes better.

The Royals might win a game, but you won’t find me predicting it.