For awhile, the bullpen wasn’t so much the problem as three pitchers – Blaine Boyer, Jason Grimm and Brandon Maurer. That’s actually still true. Just look at these numbers for fun.

Whole Team

Sans MGB

Even though 13 percent of the bullpen’s innings brought the unit’s ERA up a full point, I don’t think it’s fair to say this bullpen is actually any good if you exclude those three. For one, Maurer is still on the team and he’s even thrown four straight scoreless innings somehow. Plus, the same 13 percent of innings going the other way belong to Kelvin Herrera who isn’t even on the team anymore and Brad Keller who is now in the starting rotation. So let’s just say that even though those three are a big ol’ gas can, the bullpen is still a problem. In fact, take a look at the numbers without Herrera and Keller:

So yeah, losing Keller and Herrera from the bullpen hurts quite a bit. Just for fun, here’s what the current crop of relievers have done this year:

All this makes me think back to Dayton Moore’s statements about how he’s embarrassed by this season and how they’re going to do better in 2019. The Royals are 34-78. The bullpen has been responsible for 24 losses. Some of them are not their fault, but they’ve given up leads in 12 games and lost 12 tie games. The offense shoulders some of this blame, but this isn’t about them. This is about the bullpen that is one of the worst we’ve seen in a long time in Kansas City. I’m just pulling a number out of thin air here, but even an average bullpen probably wins, let’s say, six of the games with a  blown lead. And maybe pulls out four of the 12 ties. I’m not even talking about a good bullpen, but an average one. So give the Royals 12 more wins and they’re 46-66. They’re still horrible, still picking top five or six next year, but it’s less disheartening.

Those numbers are exactly why I believe the Royals are going to do something silly and spend some money or player collateral on the bullpen. I understand to some extent. At least a portion of developing big leaguers is winning games, and this bullpen is a deterrent to winning games. And if the Royals end up trading for some long-term assets in the bullpen, I’ll be a lot more okay with that than if they try to make a free agent splash. So what could the 2019 bullpen look like?

Let’s start with the incumbents. The Royals best three relievers right now are, I hope you’re sitting, Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn and Wily Peralta. All have been fine, but none of those three should ever be better than maybe the fourth best reliever in a bullpen. I think they all have their place in a big league bullpen if there aren’t better options, but they need to do better. Glenn Sparkman and Jason Adam have shown flashes of being acceptable as well, though Adam obviously allows too many home runs right now and I think Sparkman falls in the same category as the first three eventually.

There are a couple minor league options. Richard Lovelady is the obvious here, and I think he’ll be up in the big leagues soon enough and it’s pretty clear he’s part of the future plans. Josh Staumont has been in the rotation and the bullpen this year, but as a reliever has excelled in many ways this year. The issue is that he’s still walking way too many with 35 in 44.2 innings out of the bullpen. Still, 65 strikeouts in that time is pretty attractive. And they also have Jorge Lopez, who they received in the Mike Moustakas deal. The Royals are figuring out his role right now, but I’ll play spoiler and tell you he ends up in the bullpen. He hasn’t been good yet and has control issues like Staumont, but a 95 MPH fastball and a plus curve could be a nice combination.

Looking to free agents, I could see the Royals signing a guy to close with the idea of maybe flipping him in July. Cody Allen is out there and maybe his struggles push him to a team like the Royals, but I still think he gets a deal with a contender. David Robertson will be a free agent, but I can’t imagine he’ll enjoy going from a team like the Yankees to the Royals unless he’s desperate to get a closer’s job and nobody else is offering one. Your better bets here are guys like John Axford, Brad Brach, Brad Ziegler or maybe someone like Justin Wilson.

And looking at some trade targets, maybe they see if they can get Ken Giles right if he doesn’t do well in Toronto. The Mariners are always a possibility to trade with and they have Alex Colome setting up for Edwin Diaz and might want some youth somewhere. I bet the Rockies would gladly move away from their Bryan Shaw deal. Or their Jake McGee deal. Or their Wade Davis deal. That’s a lot of money to absorb in any of those deals, so they’re unlikely, but you never know what can be worked out.

The point is, right or wrong, the Royals are probably going to be making some bullpen moves unless a few players step up over the last couple months of the season. I don’t think they’ll be spending huge money or anything, but it’s difficult to look at what this bullpen has done so far and how Dayton Moore feels about this season and not think there are changes coming. Is it worth it to win 71 games instead of 64? I don’t believe it is, but I have a feeling the front office disagrees and they get the final say for better or for worse.

Let’s start with Duffy. Something is not right. I don’t know what it is, I don’t know how to fix it and I won’t deign to insult you, dear reader, by pretending otherwise. Duffy ran into trouble in the very first inning, giving up a leadoff single to Dee Gordon and walking the bases full to Robinson Cano and Mitch Haniger. Cam Gallagher dropped a foul pop right before Kyle Seager’s sac fly opened the scoring, then Duffy uncorked a wild one that Callagher couldn’t corral before it reached the backstop to bring in Cano.

For much of this sequence, Duffy’s fastball was barely topping 90 mph. It’s tough to envision him having much success that way, given that he’s all but abandoned the sinker so far this season (just 11 so far according to Brooks Baseball) and that opponents have gone from hitting .191 against his changeup to .333. Even more concerning is that when he missed, it was by a wide margin.

And then, just like that, he was fine. After David Freitas’ one-out double in the second, Duffy sat down 11 in a row before Cano singled to start the sixth and Duffy was removed two batters later. He struck out seven. His fastball suddenly had life again. He played the change extremely well off the fastball once he located the ignition switch, inducing harmless swing-throughs to end the fourth and fifth innings.

In short, he looked like Danny Duffy again. Right now, chalk it up to the cold and to a shoulder that still looks just a little balky; one of those factors is enough to limit what a pitcher can do, but dealing with both can be nigh-on impossible.

The worrisome thing is that Duffy’s dealt with pitching through pain for a long time now.

Duffy said he’s felt it for 2-3 years and almost had it “taken care of” last offseason, but he “felt too good.” #Royals

— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) September 11, 2017

There’s being the workhorse because your teammates are counting on you and you’re in the thick of a playoff race, and there’s… whatever is going to happen this season. Danny Duffy is one of the most prized assets this organization currently has, and one of the few that can be useful both now and in the future. Don’t jeopardize that for this lost season. If Duffy needs to sit, he needs to sit. Miss a start, miss a month, go under the knife… whatever has to be done to get the full Danny Duffy Experience back out on the mound every five days is something I think everyone is in favor of.

Sorry, off my Duffy tangent. There were other baseball-related shenanigans on Wednesday. The offense was even spotted! Jon Jay led off the game for the Royals with a four-pitch walk, then Whit Merrifield singled and it looked as though the Royals might have an answer after Duffy’s meandering first. But Mike Moustakas sent one a mile high and about 20 feet deep for the infield fly rule, then Jay was cut down on a steal attempt and Cheslor Cuthbert grounded out because nice things aren’t allowed this year.

The Royals finally did “solve” Paxton in the fourth, with Paulo Orlando doubling home Moustakas and Cuthbert after the latter led off the frame with back-to-back singles. I say “solve” because Paxton struck out 10 and generally looked very much in control with the exception of this little speed bump.

When Duffy exited in the top of the sixth, Brad Keller came into a tough spot with runners on first and second and one down—a spot made even tougher when Guillermo Heredia singled to lead the bases. However, pinch-hitter Daniel Vogelbach went after the first thing Keller threw him—a darting two-seamer low in the zone that was turned by Merrifield to Alcides Escobar to Lucas Duda for the 4-6-3 to end the inning.

The sides traded three-up, three-down turns in the seventh before Death came for the Royals. Justin Grimm replaced Keller and quickly got two outs—a Jean Segura pop up and a Cano strikeout—before walking Mitch Haniger. Grimm followed that by absolutely hanging a curve that Seager, a prolific masher of baseballs, sent toward the stratosphere to give the visitors a two-run lead. Grimm’s ERA is now 5.06.

Against Juan Nicasio in the home half, Merrifield led off with a walk followed by a Moustakas single to put runners on the corners with nobody out. The ball never left the infield, however; a Cuthbert strikeout begat a Duda foul pop to Seager, which begat a Jorge Soler ground out to end the inning. Edwin Diaz easily shut the door to close out the loss for the Royals.

Bright Spots: Duffy’s final 4.1 innings. Also, Moustakas is hitting the quietest .325 in the league right now.

The Nadir: Duffy’s first inning.

The Next Step: I am bizarrely excited to see Ian Kennedy, who welcomes the Angels into town Thursday. He’s been good. I don’t want to jinx it. Mike Trout is hitless against him in six at-bats, for goodness sake!

The group they break camp with for the opener on Thursday will most assuredly look different by the All-Star break. Hell, it’s likely there will be plenty of turnover before the end of April.

Still, the first pitch of the season has yet to be uncorked, and the lineup looks to be fairly settled, so what else are we going to do? (Spring training is too damn long.)

Let’s start with the known relief quantities. If you want to get a picture of how different 2018 will be from the last several seasons, look here. This is a limited subset of the bullpen with only Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as the relievers currently to be trusted.

Ned Yost is back to declaring only Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as bullpen locks. Justin Grimm and Rule 5 pick Brad Keller seem safely on the team. Same with Blaine Boyer. The rest … who can say?

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) March 25, 2018

Justin Grimm lost his arbitration case with the Cubs (he asked for $2.475 million and was awarded the club counter at $2.2 million) and was then released in mid-March. He gets roughly $530,000 of that, plus the additional $1.25 million he agreed to with the Royals. Grimm has seen a steady decline in his performance since his peak in 2015 when he posted a 1.99 ERA in just under 50 innings.

Last summer it was an increase in home run and walk rate, combined with a decrease in strikeout rate that contributed to his struggles. No pitcher can overcome those self-inflicted obstacles. The question is whether he can curb the trends. His HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 22%, so let’s just feel good about the assumption he can reduce his HR/9.

For those of you still jonesing for the Dayton Moore to Atlanta connection, we present Blaine Boyer. Boyer was selected in the third round of the 2000 draft by the Braves and made his major league debut all the way back in 2005, when Moore was director of player personnel development. Boyer is difficult for hitters to barrel, but still allows too many baserunners to be completely trusted.

He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, so the Royals will have to dump someone from the 40-man if he’s going to stick.

Already on the 40-man roster are a pair of Rule 5 selections in Burch Smith and Brad Keller. This is the tricky part where we will veer into the statistical realm of Spring Training. Keller has thrown 10 innings and whiffed 14 while posting a 2.70 ERA. The caveat here is that his Baseball Reference OppQual score which measures the quality of opposing batters he faced is a weak 7.1. BR defines that as around Double-A quality. Read into that what you will.

Meanwhile, Smith has whiffed 16 in 12 innings of work. His ERA of 7.50 and 24 total baserunners allowed could be alarming if you are one to read heavily into exhibition baseball performance.

As Rule 5 picks, both Smith and Keller can’t be optioned directly to the minors, They first have to pass through waivers and then offered back to their original teams. (The Rays and Diamondbacks, respectively.) They also have to serve at least 90 days on the active roster, or we repeat this whole drill next season.

Brian Flynn is out of options and is the lone southpaw in consideration here, so it’s difficult to understand why he’s not considered a lock at this point. He’s also looked sharp this spring with a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings of work. He’s whiffed 10 and walked just one.

Apparently, Wily Peralta is still in the mix, although it’s difficult to understand why. He’s had a miserable spring to this point with a whopping 24 baserunners in just eight innings of work. I don’t give a damn about your sample size. When those are your numbers…woof. Peralta was signed to a $1.525 million contract for 2018, which means the Royals are on the hook for just over $380,000 if they cut him before Opening Day. He will reportedly stay in Arizona on Monday to throw a pair of innings in a minor league game.

That’s an eight man bullpen to open the year. While the Royals are saying they have only two “locks,” it really looks like they have six or seven, depending on where you stand with the two Rule 5 guys. The real question at this point is whether they want to gamble about $1.2 million on Peralta making the tradition to the pen.

There are still other options. The Royals are reportedly considering keeping Eric Skoglund with the club as a middle reliever. It’s difficult to understand the logic behind that move should it come to fruition, as he’s much more valuable as a starter. And if the Royals see him as a fit in the rotation in the future, he should open the year in Omaha. Speaking of Omaha, he will start the Royals final exhibition game against the Storm Chasers on Monday.

Tim Hill was protected by the Royals in the Rule 5 draft and could be rewarded with a spot on the Opening Day roster, although he represents the longest long shot. However, the Royals want him to work on his slider, so it looks like Triple-A is the destination.

And all the roster intrigue isn’t limited to the bullpen. All indications are Ryan Goins will make the team which means another 40-man roster move is forthcoming.

Opening Day is just around the corner. The bullpen questions have yet to be settled, but don’t discount the Royals’ ability to spring a surprise roster move or two before everything is set for Thursday.