It’s rather historic, in many respects. The Indians are the only team above .500 and it’s not particularly close. The Twins are clearly the second-best team, only they’re doing it without Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, so their offensive ceiling would probably be a little low for a hobbit-house. The Tigers sold everything that wasn’t bolted down and/or overpriced, meaning they have an odd collection of has-beens, never-weres and Nicholas Castellanos. The White Sox can only beat the Royals, when Matt Davidson turns into 1941 Ted Williams.

The Royals, of course, regular readers of our humble little website are painfully, intimately familiar with.

It’s an odd little grouping, which has led to some strong takes. Historically bad. Uncommonly bad. Worst since 1994. Doesn’t get worse. I take exception with Ben Lindbergh’s take here because it is going to get so, so much worse when the four garbage teams trade as many of their assets as possible in the race to the bottom and spend August and September trotting out Triple-A caliber lineups.

But that’s for the future. For the present—and my present is roughly July 23 when I started the research for this, and I’m praying to crank it out before half the principals involved get traded—I wanted to focus on finding out one thing: are the combined talents of the other four AL Central clubs better than those of the Cleveland Indians? If they were to meet in a seven-game series, who would be expected to win?

The Lineups

Some observations here:

• I tried pick some numbers from a broad range of stats. There’s True Average and WARP, and also OPS+, weight Runs Created Plus and Win Probability Added. If you don’t see your stat of choice, run your own numbers.
• Jorge Bonifacio’s numbers stack up, but I set the minimum plate appearance at 100.
• Miguel Cabrera would be the first base or DH choice, but he’s out for the year. Joe Mauer and Jose Abreu had comparable numbers, but Abreu’s -1.11 WPA was well short of Mauer’s 0.55.
• Catchers in this division are brutal. Only Chicago’s Omar Narvaez has an OPS+ above 100, and he leads the league in passed balls. Sal Perez was best of a bad lot.
• Mike Moustakas got squeezed here; Escobar was the clear winner for the third base slot, while Moustakas’ edge in BWARP (2.5 to 1.0) over Soler did not give him an edge in a hitting-only proposition when you factor in Soler’s advantages in TAv, OPS+, wRC+ and WPA.
• I endeavored to sit down and work out TAv for this lineup. My head hurt and my nose started to bleed; I handed it to my wife (who is a statistician, professionally, and the smartest person I know) and she pointed out how many of the variables I didn’t have at my disposal. So that’s out. But the 1-through-9 here had an average BWARP of 1.93, 113 OPS+, 113 wRC+ and 0.43 Win Probability Added. Projected over a full season, those numbers play out somewhere between average to slightly above.

This is pretty good lineup. Speed (Martin, Merrifield) and contact (Castellanos and Rosario) will give the top end of the lineup some flexibility, and outside of Anderson and Perez, the bottom end won’t embarrass itself. Picture something like this for an order:

1. Martin, CF
2. Merrifield, 2B
3. Castellanos, RF
4. Rosario, LF
5. Escobar, 3B
6. Soler, DH
7. Mauer, 1B
8. Perez, C
9. Anderson, SS

That’s…not bad? Put some decent pitching with that and you can see a Wild Card team over the course of a full season.

Now Cleveland.

Hoo boy.

• Positionally, the Indians are better—significantly—at catcher, first, third and short. Left field and DH are slight advantages to the field, Second, center and right see the rest of the Central as the clear favorites in a pure head-to-head scenario.
• The averages for Cleveland: BWARP (1.71), OPS+ (106), 0.27 (WPA) and 110 (wRC+). Close… but slightly worse than the combined powers of the Central.
• One of the reasons I didn’t include defense here is because it *should* be in Cleveland’s favor to have played together, which would make communication and trust and everything that goes into quality defense an advantage for them by default. However, even in a vacuum Cleveland has five top-30 players in Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (Lindor, Ramirez, Kipnis, Gomes, Davis), compared to three Centralers (Perez, Martin, Anderson).

So just looking from a lineup standpoint, you’d feel like the Central at-large would have a slight advantage over the Indians. More lineup consistency, even if Cleveland would clearly have a power advantage with Ramirez, Lindor, Encarnacion, etc. and could probably slug their way to a win or two in a series.

The Pitchers

Sweet gracious God.

• Kyle Gibson as the No. 1 starter. Good Lord. And if not him, Jose Berrios and as a proud Jose Berrios fantasy owner, I can confirm that the entire delightful experience is a roller coaster.
• It was between James Shields, Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris for the last starting spot. There were no winners there.
• Not one Royal. I did some digging into the numbers for Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Wily Peralta. It just didn’t stack up.
• The Royals best Deserved Run Averages belong to Kelvin Herrera and Scott Barlow, neither of whom are currently Royals.
• The bullpen is decent. Pressly is having an extremely underrated season. Jimenez was an All-Star (someone had to be). Shane Greene is quite good.
• I was not aware of Jordan Zimmermann’s mini-resurgence. Good for him?
• The cume averages for pWARP (1.46) and WPA (0.52) will not look good compared to Cleveland’s juggernaut.

The Royals would kill to have this pitching staff, but the Royals are not an accurate representation of pitching. No top-30 in pWARP, only Pressly, Jimenez and Soria in the top-100 of DRA. And this is the pick of the litter.

Now Cleveland.

The worst of the four Cleveland starters is better than the best of the Central at-large.

• Just think of Joe Buck cutting a “It’s Trevor Bauer against Kyle Gibson in Game One of this battle for AL Central supremacy, next on Fox!” promo. You wouldn’t feel great if your team was the one with Gibson, would you?
• Just by themselves, Bauer and Kluber have more pWARP than the Centralers rotation.
• Not a single negative WPA in the bunch.
• Just ridiculous.
• Good golly.
• The averages: 1.86 pWARP, 1.18 WPA

The relievers might be a wash. Statistically, Pressly and Soria are having seasons every bit as good as Allen or Hand (with an incomplete to Miller, who has been hurt). But the starters? No contest. Cleveland all the way.

Conclusion

The unquantifiable variable here is the division itself. The Indians put up numbers that verge on incredible in many instances. Some of those numbers should not be possible in late July. Ten players across baseball have 4.0 pWARP or higher at this point in the season, and two of them are Indians.

But then you remember that those numbers are a byproduct of playing the garbage AL Central. In some cases, the ENTIRE REST OF THE DIVISION can’t find a player within shouting distance of being as good as a member of the Indians. Is getting 76 games (41 already down) against this bunch an actual indicator of whether you’re a four-win player or not?

Over the course of a hypothetical seven-game series, you’d see a number of things play out. The simply breathtaking talent in the rotation for Cleveland would be overwhelming. The bats for the Centralites might be better top-to-bottom (no Rajai Davis in that group), but the heart of Cleveland’s order would slug them to at least a couple of wins. And when you’re reliant on Jordan Zimmermann (gulp) and James Shields (bigger gulp) to dance toe-to-toe with Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco, call me a pessimist but I think you come out on the wrong side of at least one of those matchups.

The Indians defensive prowess would be an advantage. Unless I’m completely off the mark, their bullpen would stay fresher—I can imagine a scenario where Gibson or Berrios is chased early, which is not something I can say about Bauer or Kluber.

(A variable I won’t include but would add an intriguing wrinkle: who coaches the Central All-Stars? As a manager, Rick Renteria has finished better than fourth twice in his entire managerial career, across all levels—third for the Lake Elsinore Storm in 2006 and first with the Kane County Cougars in 1999. Paul Molitor is on his way to a third second-place finish in four seasons in Minnesota. Ron Gardenhire has never won a single playoff series. Ned Yost has but is also Ned Yost. Are any of them about to parry wits with Terry Francona?)

And so—with superior starting pitching, a lineup that mashes in the middle and has an advantage in the field to boot, plus a bullpen that just added a much-needed third piece in an era where every contender can go to the bullpen for four or more innings at any time, I declare the Indians better than the combined talents of their divisional brethren.

BPKC Hitter of the Day: Seuly Matias 2-4 HR, 3 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day: Carter Hope 2 IP 0 H 0 R 0 BB 3 K 1-0 FO-GO 25p/17k

Notes from J.J. Picollo, Assistant GM of Player Personnel

A few pitchers that Picollo spoke highly about are three who were away from the organization for different reasons for quite some time. Two of which made their 2018 debuts on Friday evening in Jason Adam, a former 2010 5th round pick and Carter Hope, a 3rd round 2013 pick. In Adam’s case, he was the prospect the Twins acquired for Josh Willingham as the Royals readied their roster for the eventual 2014 World Series run. While things would look great for Adam’s hometown team during the next couple of seasons, Jason would run into a wall, encountering multiple arm surgeries while appearing with the Twins and Padres franchises. Last season, after  Royals scouts checked into Adam, they brought him back into the fold knowing his outstanding character and seeing some mechanical tweaks that made his delivery shorter and cleaner. According to Picollo, Jason was up to 98 mph this spring with the shorter arm motion. He believes the slider still needs to come forward some, but he’s in a better position than he’s been at for some time to make his baseball future take focus.

On the other side is Carter Hope, a pitcher who the Royals released in May of 2016 after on-field and personal struggles. Hope had taken some time away from the game to reevaluate his life and came back to baseball early last year with his own personal workouts. After working out, he called Scott Sharp looking for a tryout. Picollo happened to be in the Tulsa area around that time and went to watch the 6-3, 205 lbs right-hander workout. After some discussion with him and a decent workout, J.J. gave him another chance signing him in July, a little over a year after the team had released him. This spring Carter came in and was throwing 91-93 mph which is a few ticks above the mid to high 80s level he was at the time of his original release. As Picollo told me he thought Hope looked okay in the workout but this spring he went out and earned a spot on the Lexington roster with his performance.

The other pitcher working his way back is former 2011 3rd round pick, Bryan Brickhouse, a pitcher the Royals were extremely excited about in 2011 when they signed him for $1.5m from his The Woodlands, Texas high school. A power right-hander, the Royals sent him to Low-A in 2012 and 2013 with what was supposed to be the second wave of prospects. While Brickhouse faired decently in ’13, he ran into arm problems during both seasons which would set a precedent the talented pitcher would continually deal with over the next three seasons. From his draft in 2011 until the 2015 season, he appeared in just 38 games, throwing 156 innings as his arm struggled to recover from outings and the overall pain of pitching. That forced him away from the game and into selling real estate in Texas. Perhaps for a moment he thought that would be his route, but according to Picollo he started working out this past offseason in Houston. Some changes he made with Dave Evans and the Dynamic Sports Training team may have changed Brickhouse’s fortune all together, building back his velocity, and putting his arm in the best shape it has ever been. The Royals saw a different pitcher this spring, hitting 96-100 mph in one of his final spring outings, pushing his way onto the Wilmington staff where he will try to rebuild the once promising career the Royals had previously hoped he would have. It’s still early, but it’s already a pretty remarkable story that a pitcher who hasn’t pitched since 2015 is hitting personal-best velocities and pitched his way to a level he had never previously reached in the minor leagues.

Lexington Legends 5, Charleston River Dogs 2

The Legends received some more thunder out of their uber-prospect Seuly Matias on Friday, getting a two-run fifth inning home run to push their advantage out of reach. Starter Garrett Davila’s struggles with control continued, walking three and allowing four hits and a pair of runs in three innings before leaving. Trailing 2-0, Lexington would plate a pair of runs in the third with an infield single by Matias that scored Michael Gigliotti and a fielder’s choice that scored Nick Pratto. An error led to a run in the fourth inning before Matias gave the final gap in the fifth. The relief corps of Carter Hope, lefty Holden Capps, and Sal Biasi tossed the final six innings scoreless with nine strikeouts and just three hits allowed.

Potomac Nationals 9, Wilmington Blue Rocks 2

Starter Jace Vines couldn’t get out of a couple innings despite collecting two outs, leading to a lopsided loss. In the first, a ball found it’s way over Khalil Lee after a misstep in centerfield, scoring a pair and starting the Nationals on the way to a four-run frame. Two innings later, a pair of doubles plated three runs, ending Vines’s night with a line of nine hits, one walk and seven runs allowed. Those runs were plenty with Wilmington getting just a pair of runs on solo home runs by Emmanuel River and Khalil Lee.

Corpus Christi Hooks 11, NW Arkansas Naturals 9

The Naturals built a 9-4 lead after trailing 4-0 through the Hooks first five trips in the lineup but couldn’t keep the lead. Starter Zach Lovvorn struggled early, giving up three runs in the first on three hits including a two-run two-out double by Taylor Jones. The right-handed starter gave up three singles in the second but navigated around them before a perfect third and fourth inning ended his night. Reliever Jason Adam followed Lovvorn, giving up three steals in his two innings which led to a run allowed despite not giving up a hit in that time. From there the Naturals offense got going, plating nine runs over the next three innings with outfielder Anderson Miller plating four runs in that time with a three-run double and a rbi groundout. Up 9-5 reliever Sam Selman couldn’t complete the win, giving up six runs in the ninth on three hits, a pair of walks and hitting another batter, allowing six runs and taking the loss in the process.

Boxscores from all games

Alec Bohm – The Shockers third baseman’s stock is likely rising out of the Royals range. This college class hasn’t had a lot of players eligible for this draft excel from the start of the season, but Bohm is one of the few, currently hitting .344/.474/.667 with 15 extra base hits including 7 home runs. At 6-5, 220 lbs. and average athletic athleticism, a wise approach and good bat to ball skills, Bohm should be able to hit for a decent average as he advances up levels. While I don’t think he’ll be available where the Royals pick, I would likely pass on drafting him as I think he’ll slow and doesn’t have the arm needed for third, likely leaving him as a first baseman. While Bohm should hit for a solid average and draw walks, I’m also unsure about his bat path being more line-drive oriented currently. With his long arms, he could become vulnerable on the inside and struggle to reach the home run needed to carry first base in the long term.

Greyson Jenista – On the other hand there is Bohm’s teammate, Greyson Jenista, who features louder bat speed and more loft in his swing. Not quite possessing the hit tool of his teammate, Jenista plays center now but if drafted by the Royals he would likely need to move to a corner as he doesn’t have the straight-line speed to handle center in Kauffman Stadium. Still, he should become a plus defender with a good enough arm to play rightfield. The loft in the swing along with the bat speed and physical body should project into plus-plus future power, possibly becoming a 30-40 home run future threat. That uphill bat path likely will lead to more swing and miss in the pro game than it has in college (16 K in 24 games), but the power should counter it well enough. On top of Jenista’s excellent career with the Shockers, he was named MVP of the Cape Cod League this past summer after putting up a .792 OPS for Cotuit. The Royals have selected just two college bats in the first round since Dayton Moore’s arrival, and some have questioned whether both (Colon, Dozier) was selected due to their price tag which would make Jenista an out of character pick at 18.

Isaiah Campbell – Coming out of Olathe South, the 6-5 right-hander was classified as having an extra large build, meaning he was slightly overweight. That is no longer the case as Campbell has lost ten pounds according to what he was listed at previously, which tells just some of the story as he looks quite a bit stronger with a major league body. His over the top release creates a good downhill plane on his fastball that he runs in the low to mid 90’s, while topping at 97 mph. The arm path is long as one would come to expect from a large pitcher with long levers, but it leads to unrefined control. The slow curveball that he works with is a 12-6 breaker that matches the fastball with downhill movement at a slow pace in the low 70s. The pitch would probably work better in pro ball with more pace if he can keep the downhill movement, but will likely need more break than a rolling motion it possesses currently. In addition to the curve, he tosses a change in the low 80’s with fade and mirroring arm movement. It’s a possible above average future pitch, and his best secondary pitch. A splitter may be the perfect compliment to his arsenal with the downward plane movement on his pitches, something Kansas City typically doesn’t work within their development program. The physical size and frame that hints at durability, but Campbell missed most of 2017 with bone spurs in his elbow and has already encountered inflammation this season. As a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, Campbell has increased leverage, but there are enough red flags here with mechanics and injury history that the Royals should steer clear despite his local background.

Blaine Knight – Knight has developed a penchant for defeating higher profile starting pitchers this season, leading his Razorbacks to wins over Florida’s Brady Singer, Mississippi’s Ryan Rolison and Kentucky’s Sean Hjelle already this season. The right-hander works from a lower 3/4 arm slot with arm side run that he has commanded well throughout his Arkansas career, walking just over 2 per 9 with that fastball while backing it up with his slider. He efficiently attacks the zone, keeping the ball low while breaking off his slider away from right-handed hitters or buckling their knees on the inside. Always on the attack with his 91-93 mph fastball that he can run up to 96 mph, Knight has given up the occasional home run, allowing 16 in his last 131 innings, but he’s mitigated damage without the free pass and a 4/1 K:BB ratio. In addition to his mid 80s slider, Knight works with a changeup against lefties that features some downward movement. Primarily he works with the fastball-slider combo though and will need to concentrate on his arm speed with the pitch, perhaps increasing the arm side fade if possible. The highly successful college arm uses a curve to give his stuff a different look, but like Campbell’s, it’s of the rolling variety instead of a two-plane dropper. Overall the stuff plays up thanks to solid mechanics that keeps the ball hidden well behind a tucked shoulder and an attacking mentality. The slider is above average currently but will need to take another tick up, as well as a needed improvement in his changeup to reach his peak, but should that not happen he should fit safely in the backend of a bullpen. There are enough questions there that picking him at 18 wouldn’t be a smart play, but any pick the Royals have from 33 to 58 would make plenty of sense for Knight.

Where could they find this information? Perhaps they should ask Danny Duffy, a left-handed starting pitcher that stepped away from the game, came back and achieved some success, encountered Tommy John surgery and achieved success again all while tweeting the now famous line “bury me a Royal”. Why is Danny so loyal? Of course, some fans have loved up on Duffy throughout his career but next to him every day is a front office and coaching staff that has helped him along the way. If you ask he’ll tell you about the staff and how they’ve been there alongside him during his up and down journey much like he did during his press conference following a DUI arrest last season.  That loyalty is also evidenced in other players like Mike Moustakas and minor leaguers Rudy Martin and Hunter Dozier who all mentioned the staff and leadership when I spoke with them Monday after the cancellation of the exhibition game in Omaha. Journeyman reliever Jason Adam, a former Royals 2010 draft pick that was traded to Minnesota before signing with the San Diego Padres has no problems telling anyone who asks that the staff in Kansas City was always upfront with him and honest.

“The Royals go above and beyond, they make that extra effort to make sure we are growing not just as baseball players but as men,” Adam said.

The porn story is great for headlines but what one may miss out on is the trip Dayton had his staff take to the MLK Center in Atlanta. In a sport that is seeing a steady decline in participation from African-American athletes and a sporting world that was charged up with a President’s tweets telling players they should be fired for kneeling, Moore was taking a hands-on approach to learning about the community and their feelings, pushing his fellow leaders to learn from MLK and the Civil Rights movement while drawing a correlation between the current events of a divided nation. This isn’t the only thing he has done either as people in Kansas City have already seen his involvement in the Urban Youth Academy facility, built near the Negro League Museum in downtown Kansas City. On this day GMDM talked about how one of the things he’s most proud of is the involvement the Academy has in softball leagues in the KC area. How those league’s getting girls involved in softball will someday help grow the major league sport as former softball players will eventually become future mother’s all while giving the youth in the city a spot where they can mentor and grow the youth as people.

This is the point it seems for Dayton, he’s brought the city a World Series and a parade like he said he would but what one gathers from a discussion with him is that it is more important to see his player’s, staff and people he interacts with growing as people while leaving a lasting impression on the city he lives in. The saying “Flags fly forever” is one that gets tossed around often but the impact Dayton is making amongst the people he interacts with will truly be was last forever.

Audio Interview Dayton Moore Part 1 and Part 2

Danny Duffy Audio Link

Rudy Martin Audio Link

Jason Adam Audio Link

Anderson Miller Audio Link

Follow me on twitter @ClintScoles

He does this with a swing that stays balanced, can hit the ball to all fields, and also shows the strength to explode on a ball to the pull side. The previously mentioned training and the upper-level competition he has faced will only help a player so much though, Kelenic’s above average hand speed is a born in trait that generates the type of barrel speed that can’t be taught, while his strength allows the bat path to stay in the zone, likely resulting in high averages in his future. Coming out of the left-handed hitter’s box Kelenic’s 6.57-second speed in the 60 allows him to steal some extra hits during a season while also allowing him to make an impact on the bases. That speed has already shown its ability to make an impact on defense in centerfield for Team USA and should he not lose much gives him a chance to stick in centerfield during his younger years. Along with that speed, his instincts, and paths to the ball should turn him into an above-average fielder in the future that alongside his rifle arm could help him have a chance to become a Gold Glove impact defender. That arm has registered fastballs in the low 90’s off the mound and as high as 96 mph from the outfield and comes with more accuracy than one generally sees from young outfielders when they’re letting it fly. From top to bottom this is a gifted athlete who has worked hard on his craft at a young age to push himself into becoming a possible Top 10 selection.

As a five-tool player, it’s not likely that Kelenic would be available to the Royals at the 18th pick in a normal year when they would need to wait for a player to fall to their position, but this year’s draft doesn’t represent a normal year for the Royals. As it stands currently the Royals based on last year’s numbers have around $12.4m to spend in the draft which would give them the largest pool allotment based on those same figures from last year. While that amount doesn’t have what it takes to shove around the top 2 teams in the draft it is significant enough to push their weight around against team’s after that because they will have anywhere from $2.15m to $5.76m more money available to them than the teams that select at picks 3 through 17. That will change slightly should Alex Cobb eclipse $50m but even then a Moustakas one year deal will mitigate that loss and keep the Royals well ahead of the field. Knowing that Dayton Moore and Lonnie Goldberg will have this kind of leverage means they have the opportunity to push the player they desire to their spot should they want to spend what it takes to make it happen.

How can they do this? By breaking the bank for one player ($7m+) the Royals can force the rest of the teams in front of them to either spend 70% or more of their draft allotment or choose someone else. The Braves last year were the only team that was pushed into that percentage with their selection of Kyle Wright and his $7m bonus demand. Is Kelenic a player who would be worthy of that kind of bonus? While that’s out for debate as I’ve written in the past it will likely take a prep player or draft-eligible sophomore with maximum leverage to push his way around in a draft.

Checkout previous Draft articles here

Featured Photo Credit Dan Napper 

One such player that might be experiencing this effect in this draft year is California high school shortstop Brice Turang. Ranked as the top positional prospect in his class for a couple of years now, he has started to see his status drop after an average if not spectacular 2017 summer. Prior to that summer, Turang was ranked by Baseball America as the top positional prospect in the 2018 draft. This was a continuation of a ranking that he had held since his freshman year, being ranked by either BA or Perfect Game as the #2 overall prospect in the draft class in both of their publications since the winter of ’16. Most recently those same publications have moved him down their rankings to #5 at Baseball America and #17 via Perfect Game. The shortstop’s ranking is starting to fall despite him finishing second in hitting on the Team USA under 18 squad during their run to a Gold medal. Some of the reasoning behind the dip is that questions have arisen to Turang’s ability to stay at shortstop due to an average arm. In addition to those concerns, a lack of projectable power is present from Turang’s lean 6-1, 165-pound frame that may struggle to add muscle and weight in the future.

What he does bring to the table though is an above-average baseball IQ, which translates in a selective plate approach, proper placement in the field and smart baserunning. That patient approach combined with a plus hit tool, a balanced stride into the ball should lead to a high batting average at the pro level, as he’s already exhibited good coverage at the dish and the speed to beat out infield hits. Turang’s plus speed is the one above average tool and helps him with excellent range in the field, giving him an above average shot to stay at shortstop despite the average arm and it also makes an impact once he’s on base.

While currently out of the Royals range as a possible top ten pick, it wouldn’t shock me if he would fall to their range should he not exhibit more power during his senior season. The lack of power would leave him with a limited ceiling but an ability to play up the middle while also bringing a patient and intelligent approach at the top or bottom of a lineup. A decent comp already in the system could be Nicky Lopez with a tick more pop in the bat.

Featured Photo: Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports

Despite a possible hole at third base, the Royals would leave Conine unprotected for the expansion draft that November, likely due to a trade they were navigating with the Mets that would land them Gregg Jefferies just one month later. That move and the moves that would come after would be a mistake as Conine would establish himself as a key part of two different championship squads in Florida. Despite that mistake, the Royals have an opportunity to right that wrong some 25 years later.

Griffin Conine, Jeff’s son, has proven over the course of two summers that he can do some major damage with a wood bat, hitting 25 home runs between the Northwoods League in 2016 and the Cape Cod League in 2017. The right-fielder does this with a powerful swing that, while long, stays in the hitting zone for a decent amount of time. Operating with an open stance that he keeps open throughout the swing, Conine has a leveraged cut that should continue to create plenty of fly ball contact once converted to pro ball. A pull oriented swing with his stance, Conine could need to close it some once in pro ball to cover the outside of the plate even with his extension. The power and swing aren’t all he brings to the table. He possesses good speed and the movement needed to play above average defense in the outfield. In addition to the movement, Griffin inherited his father’s above average arm giving him two above-average tools from which his game is built on while working with three other average tools.

Coming off an impressive Cape season, and after connecting on 13 home runs during his sophomore season at Duke, there is some chance that Griffin pushes his way into the Top 10 picks. It’s possible, but not probable as just two college corner outfielders have been chosen in the Top 15 picks of the draft over the past five years. That means there is a legitimate chance that he could be available to the Royals when their selection comes around. A strong-armed corner outfielder who could move quickly through the system while offering depth to that position alongside Khalil Lee, Seuly Matias and current Royals outfielder Jorge Bonifacio would be very valuable in the rebuild of this farm system.

Draft Strategy

As we can see from the playoff runs by the Royals, Cubs and more, relief pitchers are suddenly extremely valuable commodities. In addition to the example of success from the playoff teams, the free agent relief pitchers have earned some of the biggest contracts available the last two seasons at a time when the free agent market has been depressed. Pitchers Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, and Brett Cecil have outpaced starting pitchers the past two offseasons. In addition to the postseason success and free agent money, relievers have produced decent returns in the trade market when one looks at what Chapman, Davis, Melancon and others have returned. While KC isn’t likely to compete during the next few seasons there is still no reason why a team like the Royals who has been extremely good at discovering power arms in the bullpen should shy away from using a pick on a power armed quick moving reliever. Even non-contending teams need quality arms in the pen, and should the Royals once again discover a closer or setup man they can always turn that player into additional prospect pieces to improve their farm system.

Follow me @ClintScoles and purchase our Royals Prospect Guide here.

One such player who might fit that bill is similar to the two I just mentioned in that he’s an up the middle player, who like Gigs was lightly recruited in high school, but could fill the hole up the middle in the future. Hailing from Covington, Louisiana, Travis Swaggerty didn’t get a look from his local powerhouses at LSU or the Sun Belt’s Louisiana Lafayette despite being named Baton Rouge Large School Player of the Year. Despite those failures on the part of those schools, South Alabama’s head coach Mark Calvi saw one heck of an athlete who could run and give him a possible explosive option up the middle that he could develop into a good player. Fortunately for Calvi, he didn’t have to wait long for Swaggerty to develop after going out during his freshman year and leading the squad in hitting (.303), and ranking third in the Sun Belt in OBP (.431) to become a member of the Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American team.

Building on that strong frosh campaign, Swaggerty upped his OPS .200 points as the centerfielder connected on six more home runs, upping his batting average to .361. These numbers helped him become the first South Alabama baseball player to be selected for the USA Baseball Collegiate team. Despite that small school background, Swaggerty opened eyes again with Team USA. He led the squad in runs scored while pacing the defense in center and finishing as the team’s third most productive hitter at .328/.449/.406. This work with a wood bat answered some questions scouts likely had and gave him a good building block to lead into his likely last season at South Alabama.

The Tools

At 5’11” 180 lbs, Swaggerty’s game is built more about the sum of all the parts instead of just one or two tools, exhibiting average or better tools across the board. The speed is his one standout tool, grading as a 60 to 65 which is enough with his baseball acumen to stick in centerfield while he’s still young. He pairs that speed in the outfield with an average throwing left-handed arm to make a plus defender at the most important spot in the outfield. Offensively, that speed has generated 45 stolen bases between his two college campaigns and his time with Team USA. The stolen base percentage isn’t great in college (70%) but taking extra bases on balls in play is a regular part of his game and one reason he will be a lock to leadoff or hit second in a major league order should he make it.

The other reason he will hit that high is that he controls the zone well, walking more times than he struck out last season and just seven fewer times during his freshman season. That skill combined with plus bat speed and strong wrists help the smallish hitter barrel plenty of balls and incorporate a gap to gap approach the generates more extra-base hits and home runs than one might expect. The obvious comp for a player here is Andrew Benintendi and through two seasons the statistical comparisons to the current Red Sox outfielder are quite accurate as you can see here. Will Swaggerty make the leap that Andrew made in his final season to push him in the Top 10? That’s quite possible, but for now there remains a chance that he’s available to the Royals with their 18th selection.

Draft Strategy

With a large draft pool, there are a number of different strategies a team like the Royals, who are selecting later, can employ. Something the Royals may want to do with so many selections is select a previously “highly thought of” player with a later pick. One such player is Oregon State’s Drew Rasmussen who had to have his second Tommy John surgery after being drafted with the 31st overall pick and going unsigned with Tampa Bay. On talent alone Rasmussen is a lock first rounder, but the surgeries will likely push him out of the first three rounds of the draft. A pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a pair of average pitches along with a college pedigree would be an outstanding selection for a team like the Royals with multiple selections. A selection of Rasmussen won’t break the bank depending on the slot used, adds a quick moving arm should he stay healthy, and essentially works like adding a later round first round pick. If not Rasmussen, look for another injured player to perhaps be chosen by the Royals.

Follow me on Twitter @ClintScoles

Featured Photo courtesy usajaguars.com

The Royals brass has talked highly of their young players in the system and was reluctant to part with any besides Esteury Ruiz, despite a lacking farm from which to trade and a major league team that was lingering in the wildcard race. With a current projected payroll around $112 million, a $20 million Hosmer deal would likely mean they need to trim back $15-20m to get near the $110m budget they mentioned earlier this offseason. Unfortunately, trading Duffy’s $14m contract seems like the most logical way to trim the needed payroll to get the Royals near that $110m mark.

If they were to make a trade of Duffy then one team that stands out as a very likely match is the Milwaukee Brewers. Beyond the fact that the Royals have traded a young pitcher to the Brewers and a different GM in their attempt to compete for the playoffs in the past, there are players the Royals have had interest in in the past. On the heels of a bounce-back ’17 campaign, Monte Harrison exploded in the Arizona Fall League this past fall, hitting five home runs despite playing just 13 games there. A local kid from Lee’s Summit West High School, Harrison as a former football player with quick twitch skills, speed to cover center and power he fits a phylum that the Royals scouts have long coveted.

Besides Harrison, the Royals have shown interest previously in a pair of pitchers in the Brewers system. Right-handed starter Phil Bickford was once on the draft radar of the Royals, and despite a marijuana suspension and an injury he still shows three average or better pitches with a chance to start or move quickly into a major league bullpen.

In addition to Bickford, the Brewers have left-handed pitcher Kodi Medeiros in their system, a pitcher that it was said the Royals were extremely interested in prior to Milwaukee selecting him in the 2014 draft. The sidearm-throwing Medeiros is a fringe starter despite a pair of plus pitches in his fastball and slider to go along with an average changeup. Much like Bickford, the lefty possesses upside as a starter or could move quickly as a matchup lefty in the bullpen.

From top to bottom the Brewers offer a lot of different players that the Royals could tag in a trade, but I would be surprised if any deal doesn’t show them interested in Monte Harrison, who MLB Pipeline pegged as a likely Top 100 prospect. These other two names could be flipped around with any number of other Brewers prospects but it should be known that they’ve intrigued the Royals scouting staff in the past and despite some hiccups in their game, they still exhibit enough upside to intrigue as secondary pieces of a Duffy trade.

Other Notes
Baseball America released their Top 10 last week and I was intrigued to see Josh Staumont still in the Top 5 of the system. I shouldn’t say that surprises me as much as seeing them listing him in the Royals 2021 future rotation. I write this because that same publication listed Yadier Alvarez, the Dodgers 21-year-old hard throwing righthander as a likely future bullpen pitcher. Having seen the two pitchers face off at Double-A last summer, I couldn’t have seen two more similar pitchers in the pair of fireballers who could reach 100 mph with their fastball while also missing the strikezone with ridiculous regularity.

On that day both pitchers worked just four innings on 81 pitches, with Alvarez throwing a touch harder while walking one more hitter. Perhaps Baseball America feels the Dodgers and their depth in the rotation will allow Alvarez to go to the bullpen, but I still found it intriguing one writer would view it one way while the other at the same publication would view it another. Both to me are destined to the pen. That’s the reason I pushed Staumont lower in my rankings, and if I would be more patient with one over the other it would likely be Alvarez who is two years younger currently.

The ZiPS projections came out the other day at Fangraphs, and it likely isn’t surprising to see how abysmal the Royals opening day roster could look via the projections. After all, the projection systems have never liked this team and I doubt this front office will ever put together a squad that they would like. Still, I found one interesting note that I thought would be intriguing to watch. Listed with the second most projected innings as a starter was Jake Junis with 154.3 innings. Combine that number with his listed 7.64 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 rates and one would think Junis would be ready for a breakout projection. Then Szymborski drops the hammer with a 1.75 HR/9 projection to temper the righty’s expectations. Personally, I view the other numbers are far more likely than that home run number and the pitcher we saw in the second half is closer to the guy we will see this season. It should be fun to monitor whether the Royals have a starter who is close to a mid-rotation level talent or as ZiPS views him as a fringe guy.

If you would like to see reports on Staumont and others please purchase the 2018 Royals Prospect Guide that myself and a pair of other writers put together. You can pick it up at my Payhip link or for your Kindle through Amazon. Thanks again for reading and follow me @ClintScoles.

Ventura, Duffy, and Junis – For many years the mantra of the blogosphere and sports radio alike was that the GMDM front office and coaching staff couldn’t develop starting pitchers. The failures of Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Chis Dwyer, Kyle Zimmer and others was the sign that these guys were failures at that part of the game. This was holding the team back as the best success that the group could claim from ’07 to ’13 were the 128 rough starts that Luke Hochevar had put up after his #1 overall selection. That was until 2014 when Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura established themselves as competent starting pitchers. That season the Royals received 55 starts from players developed from their system with Danny Duffy finally starting to grab hold of his potential while Yordano Ventura helped pitch the squad deep into a playoff run.

Ups and downs would come the next two seasons from Duffy, but that didn’t stop the team from winning the World Series and the two Royals starters making 110 starts over the next two seasons. Heading into the ’17 season and further, the two would likely anchor the front of the rotation while under team control. That was until tragedy struck and took Yordano’s life, leaving a hole in the team’s heart and at the front of their rotation. Once again the team had to look outside the organization without a replacement ready from the minor league ranks. Injuries to the ’17 rotation forced the organization’s hand into giving an opportunity to a few young starting options with Jakob Junis and Eric Skoglund. Despite early success for Skoglund and struggles from Junis, it was the latter who had established himself as a fixture into the rotation by the end of the season.

This past season marked the fourth consecutive season that the Royals have received 40 or more of their starts from pitchers developed within their system. But now with rumors of a possible Danny Duffy trade, who will the Royals be able to turn to in their system for those starts to continue that streak?

The Experienced – Three pitchers within the system who are likely to start at Double-A or higher made their major league debuts last year in Eric Skoglund, Andres Machado, and Glenn Sparkman. All three pitchers struggled significantly in their short time in the bigs, but the Royals brass is quite confident in Skoglund, while Machado’s fastball velocity is better than major league average. In addition to those two making debuts with the Royals, current minor leaguer Glenn Sparkman made his debut with the Toronto Blue Jays prior to being returned to the organization as a Rule 5 returnee. None of the three achieved much in terms of success with the exception of Skoglund’s stellar debut, but Sparkman is now more than a year removed from Tommy John and the feel for the changeup is generally the last thing that returns for pitchers, meaning he should have his full arsenal ready to compete at the highest level. Don’t be shocked if he’s the guy who works his way from the minors into 10 or more starts this season. In addition to those three, the Royals have continued to protect Miguel Almonte with the hopes that he’s able to put his three-pitch mix into use as a starting pitcher despite his innings totals dropping since his season in Lexington.

The Next Step – While those four pitchers have all faced big league hitters in major league games, hard-throwing Josh Staumont’s experience came only versus hitters in spring training, but he did perform fairly well. That, of course, was prior to a season that went off the rails for him. Still, his fastball-curveball combination at its best ranks right there with any two pitch combo in the organization. The changeup, while lagging, is enough of a third pitch to play with the other two offerings. All things considered, some major changes would have to take place in terms of command and control for him to move into a regular rotation spot. The real possible competitor here would be lefty Foster Griffin who made major strides last season in terms of his fastball velocity, curveball improvement and overall aggressiveness with his arsenal. The left-hander appeared to be a totally different pitcher last season than the pitcher who took the mound the previous two. If he’s able to take one more step forward in terms of repeating his mechanics and/or adding another tick of velocity then he should be ready for the major league level.

If the Royals are to put up 40+ major league starts in-house again, then the likelihood of them doing it without Danny Duffy isn’t great, but I could see a scenario where Jakob Junis stacks 30+ together with a pair of the pitchers above dividing up 10-15 starts. To me, the best case scenario is a return of Duffy and Junis with 30 apiece, a mark Danny has never hit, while the Royals mix in a third guy after a Jason Hammel or Ian Kennedy trade. Not likely but for a fan of Duffy like me, I wouldn’t mind him being buried in Royals blue.