Obviously the Royals, who were still recovering from the death of Ewing Kauffman and were being run by a committee at the time, decided not to make the move. But every year when the Royals face off against the Cardinals, I wonder what might have been. See, more games against the Cardinals (and Cubs) were one of the main arguments for the move. Personally, I’m glad the Royals stayed. Kansas City has always been an American League city, and I wouldn’t want to lose that history, even if a lot of it (the entire existence of the Kansas City A’s; the first 13 years of this century for the Royals) has been bad.

An exercise like this is fun, because there are no wrong answers. However, it can get a little ridiculous, because everything changes everything. The butterfly effect of trading Player A might mean Player B was never a Royal. But there are a few situations in the past 20 years that would have been completely different if the Royals had switched leagues.

Although I said there are no wrong answers, I suppose there is one here: the Royals would not have been transformed into a good team for the 2000s. The 2004-2006 teams were so awful they probably would have been challenged in the Pacific Coast League, let alone the National League. But on an individual level, Royals history could be quite different. Here are some ways I think Royals history would have changed.

The Overworked Lefty

Right off the bat, one player I think could have been helped by the move is Jose Rosado. He was a promising young left-handed pitcher who had his career cut short by a torn rotator cuff suffered in 2000 when he was still just 24. Rosado had thrown 106 2/3, 203 1/3, 174 2/3, and 208 innings respectively in his first four seasons, and had suffered a tired arm in the 1997 season (his second year). He would pitch in five games in that 2000 season and never appear in another regular-season game. Managers Bob Boone and Tony Muser almost criminally overworked Rosado. With National League rules, on a team that was losing more often than not, Rosado would have been pinch-hit for often. That would have limited his innings and pitches. Maybe his rotator cuff just wasn’t meant to withstand the strain of a major league career, but maybe a move could have saved him from being overworked.

The Designated Hitters

For many AL teams, the DH spot has evolved to become a way to give position players a partial day off. The Royals, though, have seemingly had a long string of more or less regular DHs. From Hal McRae to Bob Hamelin to Chili Davis and on to Mike Sweeney, Billy Butler, and Kendrys Morales, it feels like the Royals have always had that one guy who was there solely to hit.

Sweeney’s case is interesting. When he came up to the majors, he was a catcher, albeit one who was not really up to par defensively. When he first got a chance to play every day, in 1999, it was mostly as a DH until Jeff King retired in mid-May and Sweeney began playing first base more. Going into that 1999 season, not knowing King was about to retire, would the Royals have sought to trade Sweeney for some of the pitching they desperately needed? Or would they have let him play more behind the plate? One hopes for the latter, but the former would have been tempting. Then, assuming they kept Sweeney, I wonder if they would have traded him later on, in the 2004-2006 period when injuries forced him to be a DH more often. Either way, in this case, Royals history would be changed for the worse, I think.

As for Butler, you may remember the Royals briefly tried to make him an outfielder. Then they decided they could live with his defense at first base, but mostly he served as DH. I suppose on the bright side, in this scenario, the Royals never would have brought in Jose Guillen. But once Eric Hosmer was knocking on the door of the major leagues, Butler probably would have been trade bait. I’d like to think he would have brought back a nice return, possibly hastening the rebuilding process. On the other hand, what if that trade brought back a quality starting pitcher or two and the Royals never felt the need to trade for James Shields and Wade Davis?

And simply put, if there’s no DH spot, Morales is never a Royal. That would be sad. It also makes me wonder how good the 2015 team would have been, especially in the postseason. He’s not there to hit a grounder to Carlos Correa. He’s not there to put the final nail in Houston’s coffin with a three-run homer in the eighth inning of Game Five of the ALDS.

The Postseasons

OK, let’s stipulate that not much changed and the Royals still had very good teams in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, the Royals’ 89-73 record would have done just what it did in reality: entitle them to host the wild-card game against an 88-74 team from the Bay Area. Unfortunately, in this case, that team would have been the Giants. And do you know who started the wild-card game for San Francisco that year? Yep, Royal-killer Madison Bumgarner. In reality, he struck out 10 Pirates and pitched a complete-game shutout. Frankly, I expect nothing else in this alternate reality.

Oh, but it gets worse. The real 2015 Royals earned home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs by going a league-best 95-67. That wouldn’t have even won the NL Central, as the Cardinals went 100-62. In fact, that wouldn’t have even qualified them for a wild-card, as the Pirates won 98 games and the Cubs won 97. Now, if the Royals had been in that division, those teams almost certainly would have won fewer games, but the Royals probably would have too. The best-case scenario there is a four-team dogfight for three playoff spots. First place is a division title. Second place and third place is a coin-flip game to advance in the playoffs. Fourth place is you’re fired.

There’s a great chance the Royals don’t even make the playoffs, then another great chance that they go home after one game. Now, if they survived that, I would have liked their chances against anyone left in the playoffs: we know they could handle the Astros, Blue Jays, and Mets. But I think their road to a title would have been tougher.

That is perhaps the darkest timeline. Nothing against the National League, but I’m glad the Royals passed on their chance to switch leagues.

Instead, the Royals have spent the time since the close of 2016 to take care of some housekeeping. Let’s take a look at each move and see what it means in the frame of the larger picture.

First, they picked up their options on closer Wade Davis and shortstop Alcides Escobar. There was never any doubt. Escobar will make $6.5 million next year while Davis pockets $10 million.

I understand some of the angst surrounding the Escobar option. Really, I do. Escobar magic and #PeakEsky aside, he’s simply not a good shortstop. Defensively, he looks like he’s lost a step (or if you’re into accuracy, at least a step and a half) and really just didn’t impress with the glove. Offensively…woof. Add it all up and you have a player who was worth 0.7 BWARP which is our value for Wins Above Replacement. That ranks 20th out of 21 qualified shortstops. Wait. It gets worse. The shortstop in 21st place, Alexei Ramirez, finished with 506 plate appearances. In other words, had Ramirez not made a start at short for the Rays in game 162, Escobar gets the “crown” of worst everyday shortstop as ranked by BWARP.

However, a move like this doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The market surely would value Escobar at his $6.5 million, and probably more. And were he a free agent, I imagine he would field at least one offer for multiple years of service. While it may not feel like it, the $6.5 million due Escobar is a fair rate for the Royals. Of course, every year his contract has increased means it becomes less likely he provides the Royals with surplus value. Such are baseball economics.

Another factor to consider is the Royals do not have an in-house option to cover the position for an entire season. Raul Mondesi is still the heir apparent, but if you watched him hit last summer, he’s in worse shape at the plate than Escobar. What the Royals need to do now is limit Escobar’s exposure to the plate. That means they need to stop hitting him leadoff and buying into the canard that is Escobar Magic. Like billy goat curses, it doesn’t exist.

The next option that was exercised was for Davis. The only thing that would have prevented the Royals from doing this would have been a catastrophic arm injury. Now the Royals hold an exceptional reliever at a cost that is below market value for such a pitcher. And, as you saw in the postseason, the usage of such pitchers and therefore their value is on the uptick.

This is good news for the Royals. They have some leverage heading into the meeting season. It feels like the Royals have always valued their bullpen a little more that other teams, so it would be a bit of a surprise if they dealt away their closer. On the other hand, they shouldn’t discount their past success in finding quality bullpen arms. They could trade Davis, get a key part for the upcoming season and probably find a suitable replacement.

The next order of business was when Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez both declined their portion of a mutual option. Had both sides agreed to pick up the options, Morales would have made $11 million. He gets a $1.5 million buyout. Volquez was due $10 million, but gets $3 million to move on from the Royals.

Again, these are mutual options which is just a procedural way to divert some cash while adding it to the back end of a contract. The Royals in particular use it to their benefit.

Both players create a void. Morales has been a key switch-hitting bat in the middle of the order the last two summers. Volquez struggled in 2016, but you cannot discount the contributions he made in the run to the title the year before.

The next step in the process is the qualifying offer, which the Royals can hang on both players. Let’s just say it’s highly unlikely. There’s a real danger that either (or both) would accept. Volquez’s finish means there’s absolutely zero chance the Royals offer one to him. The local media seems to think there’s a possibility that Morales gets one.

The old saw is there’s no such thing as a bad one year contract. I’d have to think there’s an exception for a one year, $17.2 million contract in a small market to a designated hitter.

There’s nothing to say the Royals can’t bring Morales back on a different contract. Rewind yourself to when Billy Butler hit free agency and the Royals were talking about rotating the designated hitter position. While it’s been something of an American League luxury for the last several years for the Royals to have a permanent DH, the amount of money the position commands makes it prudent for the Royals to explore all alternatives. If that means finding a couple of platoon bats and rotating among the regulars getting a day off in the field, so be it.

Finally, the Royals declined their part of the mutual option on Luke Hochevar for $7 million. He will receive a $500k buyout instead. Hochevar had picked up his portion of the option, which means he doesn’t think he can earn more on the open market, and after his health issues of last summer, he’s probably right. He had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in August, and with an expected recovery time of six months, he will be ready for spring training.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sign another two year (with an option) contract like the one he signed coming off of Tommy John surgery. As mentioned before, the Royals crave bullpen stability. Hochevar can provide that.

• I still think Cheslor Cuthbert is on the trading block. Reports came out that he looked “solid” at second base during instructs, which is kind of a nice thing to see. And then you realize that it seems much of his work was done on the side so there isn’t much in the way of scouts getting to see him in action. I guess it could go both ways here, but I really think that’s posturing to make him appear more versatile in a deal. The reason it could go the other way is they could have put him out at second base in the eye of the public and put him through some drills that even a guy who likely can’t play second base couldn’t fail. But that’s kind of a longshot. With Cuthbert out of options and Moustakas coming back, I’m not saying they’re definitely going to trade the guy, but talking up his versatility that nobody can really verify seems like they’re at least putting him out there, and I think that’s smart. I’ve had in my head a deal with Cuthbert to the Giants for Eduardo Nunez and maybe another piece. I’m not sure if that’s light or heavy or where it is for Cuthbert, but for some reason, that’s been floating around since the end of the season. I know Nunez is a guy the Royals like, so maybe that’s where it came from.
• News came out on Wednesday that Kyle Zimmer had completed his four-week throwing session following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and that he’d be ready to go for spring training. On one hand, I’m incredibly optimistic that the Royals finally found what it was that was ailing him and now he can finally harness his full potential and be a quality starter for the Royals as soon as 2017. On the other hand, Zimmer threw 5.2 innings in 2016. He threw 64 innings in 2015. You have to go back to 2013 when he threw 108.1 innings to find a respectable innings total for him since being drafted in 2012. He’s thrown 222.1 minor league innings since July 13, 2012. With the caveat that this could change after surgery, if Zimmer is healthy, I think he’s likely one of the four best starters for the big league club in 2017. But that’s just it. It’s always an “if” with him. This isn’t any new information, but the Royals just cannot count on him at any point moving forward. But what that does is it puts them and the fans in a pretty quality situation because the Royals know they can’t count on him so they’re going to proceed without him at the top of their plans. And, in turn, that means there’s no disappointment, only optimism. If Zimmer is healthy, I’m confident he will contribute. I can’t imagine many teams have a guy like that who is nearly a guarantee to be a positive if he’s on the field and if he’s not, there was nothing expected of him. So there’s the positive.
• This World Series, in the early going at least, is shaping up like the 2014 series. That one, you might recall, went seven games. Any series that goes seven games is likely going to be thought of as one of the better World Series to be played just by sheer volume. And yet, if you think back to that series, it wasn’t actually all that competitive game to game. In game one, the Royals lost by six. In game two, they won by five. Game three was a very good game that came down to the last pitch, but then the Royals lost by seven in game in four and by five in game five. And then the Royals won by 10 in game six! Of course, game seven being a classic battle helps to make the series great. Anyway, I think we’re kind of heading there with this series, and I’m not sure it’s going to change because I really hate the matchup for the Indians in game three with Josh Tomlin against Kyle Hendricks. Of course, it’s baseball, so you never know what’ll happen, but unless the wind is gusting in at Wrigley (and it could be), I just think the Cubs are going to tee off on Tomlin and Hendricks will be his usual self. I think there’s a pretty good chance we see this series go six or seven games, but I’m wondering if we’ll be lucky to see even the two competitive games we saw in 2014.
• It’s pretty bold to make a prediction about the 2017 team in October 28, but I’m going to do it anyway because that’s just how I roll. But I am going to put a caveat on this prediction because it is October 28. If the Royals can either re-sign Kendrys Morales or can pick up someone else with similar power, they will break their team single season home run record next year. That record was set in 1987 when they hit 168 homers. Yes, that’s the team record. No, that’s not surprising that it’s that low. But here’s why I think they will. Let’s assume Morales is on the team because it’s easier to use him than a hypothetical player we don’t know about yet. The Royals will have five players who I think will hit 20 or more home runs in 2017 and one more who I think could. Morales, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez seem like the guys who will do it. Perez, Morales and Hosmer did in 2016 and Gordon and Moustakas almost definitely would have with a full season. I’m thinking something like 22 for Perez, 28 for Morales, 22 for Gordon, 30 for Moustakas and 25 for Hosmer. That alone is 127. I feel like if Lorenzo Cain is healthy, he’ll get 15-20. Let’s call it 15 to be safe. Now they need 27 homers from the rest of the rest of the roster. If Escobar can hit seven and Merrifield can hit five, they’ll basically have about 1,100 plate appearances to hit an additional 15. It’s a tall task, but I’m saying they’ll do it. And I apologize in advance for when they hit 103 as a team.
• We had a conversation in the BP Kansas City headquarters the other day that somehow led us to Jeff George. Yes, the quarterback. We talked about him as a bust, and while I agreed whole heartedly that he is and was a bust, I wondered if he was one of the best busts of all time. So that got me to thinking about who the best bust in Royals history was. You could argue Christian Colon despite getting the hit that ultimately won the World Series. You could argue Luke Hochevar despite his postseason heroics that included getting the win after two scoreless inning in game five of the World Series. I think you could argue Clint Hurdle, a career .276/.353/.432 hitter with the Royals. Who else? I’m curious what others think here. I wasn’t around for the early days of the Royals, so maybe I’m completely missing someone who is obvious.

This week, we wanted to take a look at the upcoming offseason and started by checking out potential departures after 2016. This lead to the potential approach to some mutual options in player contracts, the strategy about issuing the qualifying offer, and the fate of a few players after this season and after 2017.

We also addressed some of the chatter about payroll. The Royals always say payroll will drop, but with most of a contending team returning, can they add to the roster without adding on last year’s payroll?

Finally, we shared thoughts on the current state of the MLB playoffs and news of a potential international draft.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

It’s taken a combination of the Royals’ ineptitude and some luck (good or bad, depending on your point of view, I suppose) to keep the record alive. But even when the franchise was struggling, some guys had a shot at toppling the mark. Here’s a look at how they fell short.

Danny Tartabull, 1987

1987 was a year kind of like 2016, in that home runs spiked rather inexplicably. Tartabull was certainly a capable power hitter, with 262 career home runs. The outfielder bashed 34 home runs in 1987, but couldn’t quite get to 37. Tartabull struggled with injuries later on, but in this season he played in 158 games and had 667 plate appearances (Balboni had 662 in 1985). Without knowing if Tartabull had an unusual number of warning-track fly balls, it’s hard to chalk this up to bad luck. Close, but no cigar.

Bo Jackson, 1989

At the height of his baseball prowess, Jackson smacked 32 home runs in 1989. Unlike Tartabull, though, Jackson could have done more. A quadriceps injury cost him 15 games in late July/early August. Bo had hit 22 home runs in the 87 games he played before getting hurt and was probably going to reach 40. He ended up with 561 plate appearances. At the rate he hit home runs that year, 662 plate appearances would have meant 38 home runs.

Danny Tartabull, 1991

This time, injuries were a factor. Although he didn’t miss any long stretches, Tartabull only played in 132 games. He still had 31 homers. That pace would have meant 37 homers if he’d had 662 plate appearances. It also didn’t help that Tartabull hit just one home run in April despite starting all 19 games the team played.

Bob Hamelin, 1994

The Hammer won the Rookie of the Year award in this season, as he belted 24 home runs. That may not sound like it was particularly close, but Hamelin did that in just 101 games and 375 plate appearances. The Royals as a team only played 115 games before the strike hit. Had Hamelin had a full season, say 620 plate appearances, at that rate he would have cracked 40 home runs. Forget the missed World Series, and the fact that baseball basically died in Montreal, and Tony Gwynn’s run at a .400 batting average. The real crime of the strike is that it cost Hamelin a shot at the record.

Gary Gaetti, 1995

And then, after the strike and subsequent lockout, Gaetti made a run at Balboni’s record. The veteran third baseman set a career high with 35 home runs in 1995. Thanks to the lockout, the Royals played just 144 games; Gaetti played 137. Given a full 162-game schedule, it’s apparent Gaetti would have set the record.

Chili Davis, 1997

After a few years of torturing the Royals as a California Angel, Davis joined the Royals for one season. And at age 37, in a tough home run park, he set a career high for homers with 30. This shows how crazy it is that Balboni’s record made it through the late 90s. Davis played in 140 games and had 567 plate appearances; he probably wouldn’t have made it past 36 even if he’d played every game.

Dean Palmer, 1998

The Royals dealt speed for power late in the 1997 season, sending Tom Goodwin to Texas for the slugging third baseman who was about to be a free agent. The Royals then signed Palmer to a one-year deal after the season, and that paid off quite nicely as he belted 34 home runs. Palmer was durable, playing in 152 games. He was almost exactly on a 36-homer pace for a full season, so it’s a coin flip as to whether he would have done it with 10 more games. Hitting only three home runs in June cost Palmer a chance at the Royals’ record book. He also entered September with 30 homers but couldn’t quite get to 37. The next season, with Detroit, Palmer hit 38 home runs. So close.

Jermaine Dye, 2000

The highest-scoring team in Royals’ history was led in homers by their All-Star right fielder. Dye hit 33 bombs. But he did it in 157 games, so I don’t suppose he would have broken the record even if he’d played 162 games. This was about as close as Dye could come to the mark as a Royal; in 1999 he hit 27 homers in 158 games and in 2001 he hit 26 in 158 games. Later on, in the White Sox’ little league park, he would hit 44.

Kendrys Morales, 2016

As you may have noticed, before this entry, every couple of years some Royal would make a run at the record. And then there was a 16-year gap between 30-homer seasons. It really shows how the franchise struggled in those years. Sure, there were a few guys who hit 29, and yes, the 2014 and 2015 teams did just fine without one. But there was a lot of ineptitude in there, reflected in the inability to find anyone who could even come close to Balboni’s record. Anyway, you all know Morales ran hot and cold this year. If he’d avoided just one of those really cold stretches, perhaps he could have set the mark. Since he played in 154 games, it’s hard to say he could have broken it with more playing time, though.

There are two honorable mentions I should also, uh, mention.

Bo Jackson, 1990

Bo followed up his 32 dingers in 1989 with 28 more in 1990. But he did that in just 111 games and 456 plate appearances. At a rate of one home run every 16.3 plate appearances, if Bo had stayed healthy, he would have needed 147 more plate appearances to get to 37 home runs. That’s roughly 35 games, or 146 for the season. That would have been a career high for Jackson, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Just one more “what might have been” in his career.

Mike Moustakas, 2016

I have to admit, Moustakas was the inspiration for this post. As you may recall, Moustakas missed two weeks in May with a broken bone in his left hand. Then, in just his second game back, he suffered a season-ending knee injury. But he had hit seven home runs in just 105 plate appearances before the first injury put him on the disabled list. That’s a homer every 15 PAs, and he would have needed 555 to get to 37 home runs at that rate. For comparison, he had 549 PAs in 2015, so it was certainly possible. I suppose you could argue the broken bone could have sapped his power, but we’ll never know.

As you can see, part of the reason Balboni’s record still exists is just bad luck; the work stoppages in 1994 and 1995 almost certainly cost Hamelin and Gaetti their chances. I also find it interesting how the number of 30-homer seasons in team history has grown. Before Balboni’s 1985 season, there had been one 30-homer season in franchise history—John Mayberry’s 34 in 1975. George Brett also hit 30 home runs in that 1985 season, but the Royals have had eight players reach that plateau since then. As homers become more plentiful throughout baseball, it’s increasingly likely someone will get to 37, or even (gasp) 40.

The Royals were officially eliminated from playoff contention this week, so we tried to put the 2016 season in perspective as it approaches its end.

In the second segment, Jeff and Mike shared their memories of the first Royals game they attended (or, at least, the game they were old enough to remember going to).

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

I think back to the 2014 Wild Card game. You may remember it vaguely. It was the bottom of the eighth inning and the Royals were trailing 7-3. I had been basically silent for two full innings as the end of the season seemed to be fast approaching. It was at that point that I thought to myself that I might as well cheer. This is my last chance to see the best Royals team of a generation. So I cheered. And then they scored a run and another run and eventually won the greatest game I’ve ever seen and likely will ever see in person.

I’m not sitting here telling you that a grand comeback like that is happening and that the Royals will make the playoffs, but the message is the same. Why not cheer? The Royals are in the midst of one of the greatest stretches of season in franchise history. Sure this season hasn’t gone as we had all hoped, but why not enjoy the last week of it? It’s supposed to be beautiful this week in Kansas City and the team has a chance to finish over .500 for the fourth consecutive season. The last time that happened was 1977-1980. That was the final four years of a stretch of six years above .500. They reached the playoffs four times in those six seasons. I’m not sure I’d agree with it, but you could make an argument these four years have been better than those six given the two trips to the World Series and the championship. It’s a special time to be a Royals fan. Don’t let a mediocre encore to a champion wipe that from your memory.

So what is there exactly to cheer for in this final week of the season? The games against the Twins coming up certainly don’t mean anything to anyone. The Twins aren’t even jockeying for draft position. They’ve locked up the top pick. I guess the Royals could still finish in either fourth or second, but neither one is likely. They’re 4.5 games ahead of Chicago and 4.5 games behind Detroit with a week to go.

We get to root for fast finishes. What a guy does in the final week doesn’t mean anything for him statistically heading into 2017, but some confidence is always a good thing. Sure it’s been a lost year for Alex Gordon, but he’s hitting .251/.330/.451 with 10 homers over his last 55 games. Is that great? No. It’s still underperforming to his contract, but a huge final week and maybe he gets that up to .270/.351/.491 over his final 61 games. That’d be a nice boost heading into the off-season. We can hopefully see Eric Hosmer finish strong and maybe even Salvador Perez.

On the subject of those two, there’s a little housekeeping left for each of them. Hosmer already reached the 100-RBI plateau, but he’s sitting at 24 homers. A nice, round 25 would look awfully good on the back of his baseball card. Perez has more work to do to get there, but he’s at 22 homers. A big week (and facing the Twins, anything can happen) and maybe he can get to 25, too. That’d be noteworthy because the Royals have never in their history had three players with 25 or more home runs. And hey, maybe Morales can continue his insanely hot hitting and get eight more RBIs this week to get himself to 100 for the second straight year. I’m not exactly expecting seven more homers to break the Royals dainty record, though. But you know, he’s been on fire for awhile. It’d be fun to see him deposit a couple more balls into the fountains for old time’s sake.

I want to see Duffy have a good final start. I’d like to see Ventura end the season on a high note. I’d even like to see Joakim Soria escape and keep a lead in tact without giving anything up. Okay, maybe some dreams are too difficult to ask for.

And finally, let’s take a look at Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield and Raul Mondesi. With the Royals budget, one or all of them is going to have to play a big role on this team next season in their attempt to make it back to the postseason. I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve seen from Dozier in limited action. He’s clearly a work in progress in right field, but one stupid play made me a believer the other day. There was a base hit to right center field and the way he attacked the ball and got it back into the infield was something you see from veteran outfielders. It was nice to see. Maybe there’s your right fielder in 2017. The numbers haven’t been great in very limited plate appearances offensively, but I’ve enjoyed his approach and I like his swing a lot.

So no, you likely won’t see a Wild Card game preview or an ALDS preview or anything else on this site this fall like I had hoped when the season began. And it’ll be awhile before this season is classified as anything but a disappointment considering the expectations and the hopes, but when it’s over, that’s the last we’ll have of Royals baseball for five long months before games start up in Surprise. It gets cold without baseball, you know. Let’s enjoy this last week and continue to celebrate one of the greatest eras of Royals baseball this city has seen.

So the Royals are going to miss the playoffs, but the Royals are still giving fans some things to watch out for.

Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales are aiming to become the second set of teammates in Royals history to each hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs in the same year, Danny Duffy is nearing 200 strikeouts, and these accomplishments led us to discuss the chances that Duffy and Morales may sign up to stay in Kansas City well beyond 2016.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

Anyway, entering the game Wednesday against the Indians, the Royals elimination number was two. That meant a Royals win was necessary to hang on to the title of reigning AL Central Champions for at least another evening.

Hit Parade

In Ian Kennedy’s 10 previous starts, he had held the opposition to a .226 average. That number is going to go up after he worked around base runners all evening. One in the first, two in the second, two more in the third, two more in the fourth, three (all doubles) in the fifth, and two more in the sixth before he was finally removed. That’s twelve base runners total via 10 hits and two walks. It was a minor miracle he was able to navigate with just three runs allowed.

And continuing a recent trend, Kennedy kept the ball in the yard. While he’s matched a career high with 31 home runs allowed, he’s now surrendered just five long balls in his last 12 starts. That’s a helluva adjustment. If you’re trying to see the bright side of things heading into next season.

All Aboard

The Royals fired up the singles train in the third. Four consecutive two-out singles plated two runs. Kendrys Morales continued to scorch, driving a 100 mph liner to opposite field drive for the first run. Salvador Perez followed with one recorded at 98 mph right back up the box for the second.

The Royals had just two other hits the entire evening.

Sequencing, man.

The Salvy Show

Perez provided one of the defensive highlights of the night, gunning down Rajai Davis in the sixth. Up to that point, Davis had been successful in 40 of 45 attempts. He got a decent jump, but Perez received a perfect pitch from Kennedy, up and out of the zone, and gunned him down for his career-best 30th caught stealing of the season.

No surprise Perez has worn down offensively again, but his footwork behind the plate has really improved and continues to be an asset.

For added defensive bonus, Perez was basically a one man rundown machine in the eighth, fielding a throw from Jarrod Dyson and getting Carlos Santana in a rundown between first and second. Perez broke toward the space between the bags, chasing Santana toward second, before giving up the ball to Alcides Escobar. Perez then had to retreat to first, as there was no one on that side of the field. Score it 8-2-6-2 on the putout. Something you don’t see every game.

Offensively, it’s been a struggle. Again. Yet, he cut the Indians lead to one in the ninth with a massively high blast to left. According to Statcast, it left his bat at 105 mph with a launch angle of 46 degrees. I know they measure these kinds of things, and I haven’t seen confirmation, but I would assume there aren’t a lot of baseballs that leave the barrel at 46 degrees that travel that far.

The End

In a fitting conclusion to the Royals perch atop the Central, Terrance Gore was caught stealing in the ninth. Gore, who was so valuable as a pinch runner in past Septembers and Octobers, had been caught only once before – in the ALDS last year against Houston when he popped off the bag trying to steal third. It took a perfect throw to cut him down. Such is life for the 2016 Royals.

Up Next

The Royals finish off their visit to Cleveland by sending Jason Vargas to the mound to avoid the sweep.

Free agents coming off seasons where they hit (probably) 30+ homers and drive in (probably) 90+ runs typically can make a little money. There are other statistics to better evaluate players than either of those and teams are smarter today than they ever have been before. But still, those are shiny numbers and home runs are instant offense, and a team in need of some home runs might look at those and look at his fantastic 2015 season and see a guy who can slot in the middle of the order and help them next year and probably a couple years after that.

And that’s not to say that Morales is without his warts. In spite of his shiny counting stats, his average and OBP are both down this season. His SLG is down too, but his ISO is up, so that’s just a result of the average. He’s also been insanely streaky this year. We’ve gone over it, but he’s been mostly bad with about 125 at bats of legitimate greatness which make his season numbers look as solid as they are. While you can’t discount the overall numbers from the streakiness, that’s something that will be evaluated when determining whether or not to give him a big contract. And he’s 33 years old. He’s no spring chicken.

But it’s also kind of hard to envision the Royals lineup without him. A big switch hitter who can balance a batting order with home run power is something that every team could use. And the Royals will continue to have championship aspirations in 2017. So what do they do? You know what? I’m glad you asked.

The Options

$11MM Mutual Option

This one is one we discussed in the open. Typically, these don’t get exercised. Usually, either the player is too good for the number or too bad for the number. It’s very rare that he gives a performance where both he and the team look at that number and think it’s fair. In this case though, I think that might be what happens.

It’s not just the performance either, but take a look at the free agent market this season and you’ll see one thing it does not lack is designated hitters. Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli, Carlos Beltran and Mark Trumbo highlight the marquee names. Then there’s a second tier. Guys like Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, even Pedro Alvarez and, yes, Morales highlight that. And there’s even a third tier with Ryan Howard and Adam Lind where a team may choose to try to get production for cheap.

That’s 10 players who could potentially be signed to DH next season. A few can actually play the field, so maybe they don’t have the same limitations, but aside from Moreland, they’re all designated hitters, even if they’re wearing a glove.

Now look ahead to next season’s free agents. Lucas Duda will be a free agent. So will John Jaso. Billy Butler and Melky Cabrera will be there. And Jayson Werth will be 39, but he’ll be out there. That seems like a market where Morales could be top dog. It might be in his best interest to be on the lookout for that one-year deal with the hopes of having a better season and getting back out there next off-season to try to find a deal.

Is he worth $11 million? I think so. By wins above replacement, he’s not, but on a team starved for power and always looking for lineup balance, I think it would be hard to just dismiss a player who has been their best power threat for the last two seasons. The Royals payroll situation is a little bit murky with a lot of raises and what’s looking to be the highest number ever for the franchise, but if you’re trying to win in 2017, I think Morales hitting in the middle of a hopefully healthier lineup gives you the best chance.

Of course, we talked about why players decline their mutual options, so…

The Qualifying Offer

This year’s QO is going to be $16.7 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy who walks to the plate 600 times in a season and does little else. In fact, it would be one of the highest salaries ever for a designated hitter. But if he declines his option (or the Royals decline their end), the next question is whether or not to offer this to him. If they do offer and he declines and signs elsewhere, the Royals get a compensatory pick for their troubles. Of course, if he doesn’t sign elsewhere, they get nothing and Morales is out of luck.

You might recall that’s happened to him before. Following the 2013 season, he was given a qualifying offer from the Mariners and turned it down in the hopes of making way more on the free agent market. Nobody signed him. He ultimately landed with the Twins and had no spring training or any time to prepare for the season and had a disastrous year. Luckily for him, the Royals saw more and took a chance on a two-year deal that I was shocked he received. I’m not sure he’d want to go through that again, especially considering the free agent class listed above.

I think if the Royals extend Morales a qualifying offer, there’s a very real chance he accepts it. In fact, I’d put it at a better than 50/50 proposition that he accepts it. That means there’s some tricky maneuvering here. If there’s even the possibility they extend him the qualifying offer, Morales will decline his side of the mutual option because he’d earn nearly $6 million more through the QO than the MO. So basically, the Royals have to decide on the QO before the MO and let Morales know of their intentions.

It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Royals to extend the QO and have Morales accept it, but that’s only if he wanted to work out a deal for more than one season. I suppose he could want a three-year deal they could work out, but a two-year deal puts him on the free agent market following the 2018 season, which might be the greatest free agent class we’ve ever seen, so I doubt he’d want that.

No Mutual Option, No Qualifying Offer, Sign New Deal

This seems to be the most likely route the Royals will take with Morales. They can buy out their end of the mutual option and not offer Morales a QO and then just see what happens. I think free agency for Morales could go one of two ways. He could either choose to get out in front of the big name designated hitters and sign quickly, or he could try to be their rebound DH and nab a deal in January or February. Of course, given the history, I’m not sure how much he’d like to do that.

So the Royals could do nothing with him and take a chance that he’ll be there for a good price later in the off-season or they could get out in front and give him a deal for a year. It could be that somewhere in between the $11 million mutual option and the $16.7 million qualifying offer would appease both sides, so maybe they can do something like one year for $12 million with another mutual option for something like $14 million and a $1.5 million buyout. That puts the money pretty close to in the middle and could probably appease both sides.

That gets Morales back on the free agent market following the 2017 season when the options aren’t quite so plentiful and gives him the chance to make even more money. I think this way might make some sense, though I could see them doing a deal like that even if they do pick up the mutual option.

Let Him Walk

But is keeping him even the smart play for the Royals moving forward?

The Royals have long talked about wanting to gain flexibility with the DH position. Of course, they talked about that and then went out and signed the man this article is about, so who knows? What I can tell you is that next season, the Royals expect Mike Moustakas to return at full strength, but they also have Cheslor Cuthbert, who has filled in quite well for him. Cuthbert, to me, is clearly a big league hitter, but he’s not as good either offensively or defensively as Moustakas. He also seems like he’s faded as he’s played the longest season of his career.

A way to both keep Moustakas healthy and Cuthbert from getting to this point of fade might be to rotate the DH spot. It would also allow for guys like Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain to get some extra days off. So with that in mind, having the DH spot open is definitely appealing. Add in Hunter Dozier if he can nail down the right field job, and it might be nice to get some defense in there for Ian Kennedy or Danny Duffy starts when you know the fly balls will be flowing.

So they could simply buy out their portion of the mutual option, not extend that qualifying offer and just let him go. They can rotate that DH spot and hope the offensive output is the same or better and they get through a season with better health because of the rest afforded to the regulars.

You know, people don’t like to hear this, but the Royals have a budget, and it looks to already be stretched pretty thin next year. Can they even afford to add another $12 million plus to the payroll? I think if you have a chance to win a title, absolutely, but it’s also not my money.

The question is if the Royals are a better team with Morales in the middle or with their regulars getting the opportunity to take a half-day off. I could see either side, but in my opinion, I think the best option for the Royals is to work something out with Morales that doesn’t require them to pay him nearly $17 million in 2017, but does allow them to keep him to provide that key bat in the middle of the order.

Try to imagine a lineup without him. In theory, the flexibility would be nice, but Morales is a proven commodity. He’s been an above average offensive player every year of his career since becoming a regular but one. Sure he’s getting older and he’s had some down times this year, but the Royals need that power bat in the middle, and I do think Morales is the best option.

Now, if you tell me they let Morales walk and do something like sign Carlos Beltran to DH, then I have no issue with that. But they need someone, and they know Morales and know what he brings to the table. To me, he’s a great fit for this offense and can be a big part of helping them get back to the postseason in 2017.