Let’s start with that.

The biggest addition to the September roster is going to be Wade Davis, who pitched a perfect rehab inning with the Storm Chasers and did so on 15 pitches, 13 of them strikes. That’s solid. Adding him to a bullpen performing so well already will make that unit as good as its been all season. Being able to push down the back of the bullpen will allow the Royals to turn games into five or six inning affairs with the starting rotation. The starters have been great lately, but with that deep of a bullpen, Ned Yost may not have to push quite as hard.

The bullpen will likely also include a few guys who have seen big league time this season. That means Scott Alexander, Brooks Pounders and maybe Alec Mills will return. None are impact pitchers, but they can all help the staff soak up some innings and maybe even get some big outs along the way.

Edit: Scott Alexander was called up prior to the series finale against the Yankees after Chien-Ming Wang was placed on the disabled list. He won’t be a September call-up after all. 

Edit 2: And now Pounders has been called up as well with Christian Colon getting caught in the roster crunch and heading to Omaha until their season ends on September 5th. 

What I’m most curious about in the bullpen (or maybe the rotation) is how the Royals handle Kris Medlen and Jason Vargas. I didn’t expect Vargas to even have a shot to pitch in the big leagues this year, but his rehab clock is up on September 6, so the Royals will either have to take him off the disabled list or pull him from his rehab stint. He hasn’t been very good with a 7.88 ERA in two Omaha starts, but he might be up in spite of that. The decision on Medlen doesn’t have to come until September 15, but that’s still before end of the season. Like Vargas, he wasn’t very good in his first couple appearances in Omaha, but he has three scoreless innings in his last two outings in relief, so maybe he can contribute.

One other name on the pitching staff to watch for is Nick Tepesch. He’s nothing special, but is a live arm. Of course, if he is DFA’d to make room for someone else on the 40-man, he won’t be part of the conversation, so just keep him in mind.

We could also potentially see Miguel Almonte, but man has he been rough this year. I’m not so sure the Royals will get him to the big leagues, possibly opting just to get this season behind him as fast as possible.

Offensively, I imagine we’ll see some guys we’ve seen before in Kansas City as well, assuming health. Whit Merrifield, Tony Cruz and Reymond Fuentes are all good bets to be up next month. We likely won’t see much of Cruz, but Fuentes and Merrifield could play decent-sized roles. We’ll also see Terrance Gore get to be a big leaguer for the third straight September (and he’s seen time before September, so he fits here).

A couple players are on the 40-man roster, but haven’t seen big league time. One has had a very nice season while the other, well, hasn’t. Jorge Bonifacio has had the nice season, hitting for a decent average and a lot of power. Reports are that he’s looked a little better defensively as well, so that’s a plus. I don’t see a reason not to call him up, but the Royals have done that before. The other is Bubba Staring who has had a less than good season between Double and Triple-A. I suppose they could call him up to play defense and run the bases, but I also wouldn’t count on that.

Oh. And Ramon Torres, a middle infielder, is on the 40-man roster. I mean, I guess he could get called up and play some defense or something. Anyway, moving on.

There are two players not currently on the 40-man who have a shot to be on the September roster. One is the guy they acquired just two days ago, Daniel Nava. I don’t think he’ll be an impact bat or anything, but it wouldn’t hurt to have a veteran who can draw a walk. No, Yost doesn’t pitch hit, but maybe he can go up there for Gore after Gore pinch ran for Kendrys Morales. The other is Hunter Dozier, who has had a monster year between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster anyway after the season, so the Royals could just do that now if they want to. Of course, there are some roster maneuvers needed to make that happen, but there’s pretty much always a way. I’d like to see Dozier get a shot personally.

So those are your callups.

Since all we can think about now is what the Royals have to do to make the playoffs, let’s take a look at how that can happen. With the recent trends, I’m not sure they actually have to get to 90 wins to take the second Wild Card. Still, let’s pretend like that’s the case. With last night’s loss, the Royals need to finish 21-9 to get there. With 18 home games out of 30, that certainly helps. With 14 games left against teams below .500 and 12 games against the Tigers/Indians, they have a shot to make up that ground.

I’ve said this many times, but I’ll repeat it here because that’s okay to do. If they just win every single series without sweeping one, they’ll get to 90 wins. Not that it’s easy, but it certainly seems like something that could happen. If they don’t win every series, they’ll need to find a sweep somewhere or hope that 90 wins really isn’t the number they need.

I would think it would be very difficult to win all nine series they have remaining. They’ll need to take both against Detroit, I’d think, but they can probably stand to lose a series against the Indians if they can really go to town during their 14-game stretch against the Twins, White Sox and A’s. When I say go to town, I mean something like 12-2. That would allow them to just go 9-7 in the other 16 games, which seems like a very real possibility.

So yeah, go ahead and beat the Yankees, but September is where the fun happens. I have visions of Gore scoring from first on singles and Davis closing out games and Bonifacio maybe even hitting a big home run. We’ve done the Septembers with nothing to play for. The way the Royals do it now is much more fun.

HR Roll Call: Whit Merrifield (9), Ryan O’Hearn (18), Mike Hill 2 (8), Dennicher Carrasco (6), Jose Caraballo 2 (5)

BP KC Hitter of the Day – Mike Hill 3-3, 3R, 2 HR, 4 RBI

BP KC Pitcher of the Day – Darwin Feliz 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 7-2 GO-FO 

Omaha Storm Chasers 12 Fresno Grizzlies 5

Coming into Tuesday night’s game, the Chasers hadn’t scored more than four runs since August 6th, but that would change as the team broke out in a huge way in the fourth inning. Up 1-0 early, Omaha would get things started in that fourth with a Whit Merrifield single. They just kept going, with the first five hitters in the inning reaching base. That lead to five runs as the pressure came with two more one out hits before Merrifield finished what he had started with a grand slam to complete the nine run outburst in the frame. After two more runs in the sixth, Omaha had plated a dozen on the board which would be more than enough for the easy win.

Boxscore Link

Whit Merrifield 2-5, 2R, HR, 4 RBI
Dusty Coleman 2-5, R, 2b, 3 RBI
Alec Mills 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 5-1 GO-FO, 59p/39k

Corpus Christi Hooks 7 NW Arkansas Naturals 2

The Naturals starter struggled to hit the strikezone while the bullpen struggled to keep the ball in the yard during Tuesday’s loss for NW Arkansas. It was Josh Staumont once again struggling with the zone, walking six in just two and one-third innings as he could connect with the strikezone on just 28 of 64 pitches while allowing three runs. Following Staumont, reliever Evan Beal gave up a pair of home runs in his 2.2 innings and Miguel Almonte gave up one in his inning of work. The Naturals offense couldn’t keep pace, scoring just two runs on Ryan O’Hearn’s 18th home run of the year.

Boxscore Link

Ryan O’Hearn 1-3, HR, 2 RBI
Alfredo Escalera 2-4, 2-2b
Josh Staumont 2.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 3 K, 2-1 GO-FO, 64p/28k

Wilmington Blue Rocks 7 Potomac Nationals 5

The Rocks fell behind early, but a pair of Mike Hill home runs helped bring them from behind for a win. Starter Foster Griffin gave up a run of five singles in second inning to give Potomac a 3-0 lead. In the third, a walk by Hill to leadoff the inning, combined with a pair of singles lead to two runs to pull within 3-2. In the fourth inning, Hill’s first home run for Wilmington pushed the Rocks ahead 4-3. Following Potomac’s run-scoring single in the top half of the sixth, it was Hill again taking a ball deep to right field with a two-run homer to put Wilmington out in front 6-4. An RBI double by Austin Bailey, also in the sixth inning, tacked on an insurance run while the bullpen hung on to earn Griffin’s fourth win for Wilmington this season.

Boxscore Link

Robert Pehl 2-3, 2R, 2b, BB
Elier Hernandez 2-3, 2R, 2b, BB
Foster Griffin 6 IP, 11 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 12-4 GO-FO, 90p/64k

West Virginia Power 13 Lexington Legends 2

The Legends pitching staff was knocked around in the first game of their series with West Virginia on Tuesday. Starter Gersn Garabito struggled once again, giving up five runs (4 ER) over 4.2 innings to drop to 2-9 on the season. Things didn’t get better for the Lexington bullpen as lefty Mark McCoy and Brian Bayliss were tuned up for eight more runs while the Legends offense was shutout by the Power pen.

Boxscore Link

Chase Vallot 2-4, 2b, RBI
Xavier Fernandez 2-4, R, 2b
Gerson Garabito 4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 3-5 GO-FO, 78p/49k

Billings Mustangs 7 Idaho Falls Chukars 2

The Chukars offensive woes continued as did the struggles of a 2016 draftee. Just two runs scored, thanks to a 1 for 9 effort with runners in scoring position lead to Jace Vines seeing his record drop to 1-5 on the year. It wasn’t all Vines fault as the Texas A&M alum allowed just one earned run (2 R) over his five innings that featured three hits and three walks, but the Mustangs got after Enmanuel Cammacho for five runs to put the game well out of reach. The defense committed four errors including Ricky Aracena making his 28th error in just 43 games played.

Boxscore Link

Meibrys Viloria 1-4, 2b
David Edwards 3-4, R, 2b
Richard Lovelady 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AZL Royals 10 AZL Rangers 6

Eleven hits and five walks lead to a 10-run night and another Arizona win. With Royals rehabber Kris Medlen starting for the club and working a pair of scoreless innings, the Royals built an early 4-0 lead with two runs in the first and third innings. The Rangers knotted the game at 4-4 as they knocked around Rex Hill, but the Royals opened things up with a four run fifth to separate during the game. A big part of that inning was Robby Rinn’s two-run double which lead to him coming around on Sebastian Rivero’s run scoring single. A two run seventh inning essentially put the game out of reach and lead the first place Royals to another victory.

Boxscore Link

Khalil Lee 2-3, 3R, 2BB
Seuly Matias 2-3, 2R, RBI, BB
Kris Medlen 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

DSL Royals 9 DLS Phillies 1

The Dominican club powered up for a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. Five extra base hits that included three home runs as the pitching staff limited the Phillies to just one run on six hits.

Boxscore Link

Esteury Ruiz 2-4, 2b
Jose Caraballo 3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Dennicher Carrasco 1-4, HR

However, for the offense to be good enough to win, the pitching needs to improve. In fairness, the pitching hasn’t been awful this year, even though it’s felt like it sometimes. As a staff, the Royals have an ERA+ of 105. They’ve allowed 4.32 runs per game; the AL average is 4.48. But those numbers paper over a staff that gives up too many walks (370, fourth-highest total in the league) and home runs (158, third-highest in the league and a staggering figure for a team playing in Kauffman Stadium).

A look at the Defensive Runs Allowed stat on the mothership shows the Royals are 18th in baseball and eighth in the American League at 4.38. That fits the stats above, showing a staff that is basically middle-of-the-pack. It’s been a team effort. The bullpen ranks 16th in baseball and ninth in the AL at 4.17; the starters are 19th and ninth at 4.50.

With a (presumably healthy) Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Matt Strahm, and the possibility of adding free agent Greg Holland back to the mix, the bullpen should be fine next year. My main concern is that rotation.

Last year, the Royals got 109 combined starts from Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, and Danny Duffy. The other 53 starts were made by a grab bag of pitchers: Joe Blanton, Johnny Cueto, Kris Medlen, Yohan Pino, Jason Vargas, and Chris Young. Despite the impermanence of that fifth spot in the rotation, the Royals went 30-23 in those 53 games. And they did that despite going just 4-9 in Cueto’s starts.

This year, the Royals have had 89 combined starts from their top four guys: Volquez, Ventura, Ian Kennedy, and Duffy. Despite some inconsistent years from three of those pitchers, the Royals have gone 50-39 in those games (14-3 in Duffy starts, if you were wondering). Even though the combination of Ventura/Kennedy/Volquez has been decidedly average, they’ve shown that as long as there is a Duffy-type leader of the rotation, they can be a serviceable group.

The other 29 starts this year have come from Young, Medlen, Dillon Gee, and Flynn. The Royals are 8-21 in those games. There’s your season. Just six or seven more wins, just going about .500 in those games, and the Royals would be in the thick of the playoff race, even with their other issues. That record isn’t a fluke, by the way. Those four have a whopping 7.17 ERA in 128 innings as starters.

So yeah, finding another dependable starter would be huge for the 2017 Royals. Volquez may not be a Royal next year; he and the team have a $10 million mutual option to discuss, or the Royals can buy him out for $3 million. Frankly, I’m not sure the Royals should pick up that option, even though that might add to their shopping list. After Sunday’s start, he has an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.46. He just hasn’t been effective. As you can see from this chart, his velocity is dropping as the season goes on. It might be time to cut ties.

The good news is that Vargas should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery by next spring. In fact, he would be at that 20-month mark that is considered the point when a pitcher is really ready to return to their previous level of performance. So with Duffy, Vargas, Ventura, and Kennedy, the Royals look to have a pretty solid group of starters. Just like last year, and just like this year. The difference is going to be in that fifth spot.

In-house candidates include Gee, Flynn, Mike Minor, Strahm, and Young. I think the performances of Gee and Young have eliminated them from consideration next year even though they’ve been fine as relievers. Flynn has also been effective in the bullpen. Strahm could be a starter someday, although I’m not sure he’s ready. My guess is the Royals either keep him as a reliever to get used to the majors or send him to Omaha to continue developing as a starter. Either way, I’m not counting on him being in the rotation next April. Minor has been trying to complete a rehab assignment most of the season, so I’m not sure he’s a consideration either. He will certainly be in the mix next spring, but it’s hard to say he’s a solution right now.

The Royals do have some intriguing possibilities in the minors, but I don’t think any of them are ready to be in the majors for a team trying to win now. Jake Junis and Alec Mills have just reached Triple-A recently. Both have potential; both probably need more time.

The list of potential free agent starters available this winter is, uh, suboptimal. Andrew Cashner and Jeremy Hellickson might be the leading possibilities there. Those two are likely to get more money than they really should, and the Royals probably aren’t winning a bidding war for their services. Both would likely be adequate, but not really worth the money.

That leaves a trade. With the current logjam developing at third base, perhaps the Royals could explore dealing Mike Moustakas, Cuthbert, or Hunter Dozier. Another possibility is trading Lorenzo Cain, if Dozier appears capable of playing right field, and letting Orlando be the starter in center field. Both options are gambles, but in the third base situation, at least between Moustakas and Cuthbert the Royals can feel assured that third base is in good hands.

However the Royals choose to solve this dilemma, it is encouraging that they really are that close to being good again. It’s actually a bit shocking that the pitchers they assembled to possibly fill out the rotation this year all pitched so poorly. That’s baseball, I suppose, but it’s not much fun this year. The Royals will need better luck and better choices to contend in 2017.

HR Roll Call: D.J. Burt (3), Chris DeVito (2), Jecksson Flores (3)

BPKC Hitter of the Day – Chris DeVito, 1-3, 2 R, HR, BB, 2 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day – Kris Medlen 4 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Omaha Storm Chasers 4, Nashville Sounds 2

Omaha’s offense smacked 13 hits, overcoming three errors by the defense, for a win in the Music City. Kris Medlen, making his first rehab start at Omaha, limited the Sounds to two hits and a walk in 4 2/3 innings, while striking out five. He threw 69 pitches, 49 for strikes. The only run he allowed was unearned due to a throwing error by shortstop Ramon Torres. Meanwhile, Reymond Fuentes picked up three hits, while four different Storm Chasers had two hits. Irving Falu had the big hit, cracking a bases-loaded single in the fifth to break a 1-1 tie. And a hat tip to Kevin McCarthy, who struck out the rehabbing Josh Reddick to end the game with the tying runs on base for his second save of the year.

Boxscore link

Reymond Fuentes: 3-5, R
Jorge Bonifacio: 2-5, 2 R, 2B
Irving Falu: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI

Tulsa Drillers 2, Northwest Arkansas Naturals 0

Despite outhitting Tulsa, the Naturals were shut out. Northwest Arkansas collected eight hits, but six were singles. Starter Ashton Goudeau allowed five hits and three walks in six innings of work while striking out just one batter. Tulsa pushed across single runs in the second and fourth innings, giving them just enough of a cushion. The Naturals went 1-11 with runners in scoring position and left the bases loaded in the fourth. They also lost a scoring chance when Terrance Gore grounded into a double play (pitcher to home to third) with the bases loaded and no outs in the seventh.

Boxscore link

Frank Schwindel: 2-4
Cam Gallagher: 1-2, 2 BB
Corey Toups: 1-4, 2B

Winston-Salem Dash 4, Wilmington Blue Rocks 1

Wilmington starter Matt Tenuta left the game in the second inning with a sore shoulder, and reliever Colin Rodgers allowed two inherited runners to score as Winston-Salem put up a four-spot in the frame to cruise to victory. Tenuta had allowed a walk and a single, but with two flyouts was almost out of trouble with only one run scoring. But he walked one more hitter before being removed in the middle of an at-bat. Rodgers finished that at-bat by walking the hitter and then gave up a bases-loaded double to give the Dash a 4-0 lead. On the bright side, that was the only hit Rodgers allowed in 5 1/3 innings of relief. The Blue Rocks could only manage six hits, with their lone run coming in the fourth as Brandon Downes walked and Elier Hernandez doubled. Raul Mondesi, in the first game of his rehab assignment following his 50-game suspension, went 0-4 with three strikeouts.

Boxscore link

Elier Hernandez: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB
Humberto Arteaga: 2-3, BB
Colin Rodgers: 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Hagerstown Suns 7, Lexington Legends 2

Another rough start for Nolan Watson, who allowed eight hits and four runs in just 3 2/3 innings. That put the Legends in a hole they couldn’t climb out of. Watson fell to 2-7 with an 8.18 ERA for the season. Torey Deshazier allowed three more runs in 3 1/3 innings of relief pitching to put the game out of reach. Lexington could only muster six hits, although two of them were home runs. Unfortunately both were solo shots, one by D.J. Burt in the first inning and the other by Jecksson Flores in the third.

Boxscore link

Anderson Miller: 2-4, 2B
Roman Collins: 0-2, 2 BB
Gabe Cramer: 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Grand Junction Rockies 4, Idaho Falls Chukars 2

The Chukars fell behind early and couldn’t come back from a 3-0 deficit. Starter Andres Machado worked four innings, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks, although he did pick up five strikeouts. Drew Milligan followed with 2 1/3 innings of relief, giving up a run on two hits and two walks while striking out four. The Chukars took advantage of a wild pitch and a passed ball to score two runs in the fourth. With two outs and one on, Nick Heath struck out but reached on a passed ball. Ryan Dale doubled to drive in two but Idaho Falls could not add any more runs.

Boxscore link

Yeison Melo: 3-4, 3B
David Edwards: 2-4, R
Ryan Dale: 1-3, 2B, BB, 2 RBI

Burlington Royals 5, Princeton Rays 0

Burlington picked up its first win of the young season with an easy 5-0 victory. Three Royals combined on the six-hit shutout, with Garrett Davila earning the win by holding Princeton to three hits in 5 2/3 innings. On offense, Burlington collected nine hits, including Chris DeVito’s second home run of the year. Every starter except Nicky Lopez had at least one hit, but Lopez drew two walks.

Boxscore link

Chris DeVito: 1-3, 2 R, HR, BB, 2 RBI
Tyler Straub: 2-3, R
Garrett Davila: 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K

DSL Royals 6, DSL Phillies 4

The Royals jumped out to a nice early lead, scoring four runs in the first three innings. After the Phillies closed the gap to 4-3, the Royals responded with two more runs in the sixth for an insurmountable lead. The Royals pounded out 10 hits, including two doubles and two triples and also stole three bases. The Royals improved to 11-6 on the season with the win.

Boxscore link

Janser Lara: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Esteury Ruiz: 2-5, R, RBI, 3B
Angel Medina: 2-5, R, RBI, 3B
Andres Martin: 2-4, 2 R, 2B
Juan Peguero: 2-4, R, RBI, 2B

HR Roll Call: Tony Cruz (4), Ryan O’Hearn (13), Alex Gordon, Jose Caraballo (2)

BP KC Hitter of the Day Ryan O’Hearn 3-3, 2R, 2b, HR, BB

BP KC Pitcher of the Day Eric Stout 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Single-A Lexington Legends and High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks won’t play games due to their All Star breaks until Thursday.

Colorado Sky Sox 4 Omaha Storm Chasers 2 F/5

The Chasers fell victim to some early runs – and weather – to drop the rain-shortened series finale. Starter Christian Binford was dinged for a pair of two-run home runs in his four innings to drop to 1-5 since joining the Triple-A rotation. The Chasers had their own two-run home run via Tony Cruz, but could muster just two additional singles during their five frames of the shortened game.

Boxscore Link

Tony Cruz 1-2, HR, 2 RBI
Hunter Dozier 0-0, R, 2 BB
Jorge Bonifacio 0-1, BB

Arkansas Travelers 5 NW Arkansas Naturals 3

The Naturals received a good night from one Royals player on a rehab assignment and a not-so-good of an effort from another. Outfielder Alex Gordon went 2 for 3 with a home run and a walk, completing the full game in the outfield, while pitcher Kris Medlen struggled. Medlen, on an abbreviated pitch count, struggled with the strikezone, tossing 35 strikes in 56 pitches. He surrendered four runs on six hits in just three innings. In addition to Gordon’s nice day at the plate, Royals prospect Ryan O’Hearn connected on his 13th home run of the season and his 21st double while completing a perfect 3 for 3 night at the dish. NW Arkansas was able to connect on just one other hit besides what O’Hearn and Gordon provided in dropping their fifth consecutive game.

Boxscore Link

Alex Gordon 2-3, HR, BB
Mauricio Ramos 1-4, 2b, RBI
Bubba Starling 0-4, 2K – consecutive sub. 200 BA months

Orem Owlz 8 Idaho Falls Chukars 5

Chukars starting pitching got knocked around early and a comeback effort fell short Monday night. Starter Andres Machado gave up four first inning runs and then single runs in each of the next three innings to help put Idaho Falls in a 8-2 hole. The Chukars got an RBI triple from Ricky Aracena to plate speedster Nick Heath in the seventh. An inning later, Meibrys Viloria doubled in a run and scored to trim the deficit to three, but the Chukars were unable to continue the rally to drop their first game of the season.

Boxscore Link

Meibrys Viloria 3-4, R, 2-2b, RBI
Ricky Aracena 3-5, R, 3b, RBI
Yeison Melo 1-5

DSL Royals 8 DSL Red Sox1 6 

A four run eighth, combined with two runs in extra innings, gave the DSL Royals a come from behind win.

Boxscore Link

Raymond Lopez 2-4, 2R, 3b, 3RBI, 2BB
Angel Medina 1-4, 2b, RBI
Cristian Perez 2-4, 2R, RBI, BB

HR Roll Call Hunter Dozier (15), Ryan O’Hearn (12)

BP KC Hitter of the Day Hunter Dozier 3-6 HR, 2b, 2R, 2 RBI

BP KC Pitcher of the Day Brooks Pounders 3.2 IP 1 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 7 K 1-3 GO-FO 48p/31k  

Omaha Storm Chasers 6 Oklahoma City Dodgers 5 F/12

Heading into Wednesday’s game the Chasers had lost 17 of their last 19 games and their last 10 in a row on the road. Thankfully the squad mustered enough offense and combined it with a late Dodgers error to snap that losing streak. Hunter Dozier continued his assault on the road in the PCL collecting three hits in six at bats while driving in a pair of runs and scoring the difference making run on an error in the top of the 12th with two outs. Dozier connected on his 15th home run of the season in the 7th inning, giving him seven since joining the Chasers. Omaha which was forced into a bullpen staff day with a lack of starting pitchers on the squad received quality pitching from their final two pitchers of the day in Scott Alexander and Brooks Pounders. The two arms combined for 11 strikeouts in the last 5.2 innings with Pounders earning the win.

Boxscore Link

Jorge Bonifacio 1-6 3 K
Ramon Torres 3-5 2R, BB, RBI, SB (12)
Scott Alexander 2 IP 3 H 0 R 0 BB 4 K

NW Arkansas Naturals 12 Springfield Cardinals 6

Kris Medlen had a solid first rehab start for the Double-A Naturals Wednesday, striking out five in 2 innings before giving way to Ashton Goudeau and several others who kept the strikeouts going. While the pitchers were making the Cardinals hitters whiff the offense had the bats working with 18 hits and an 8 run explosion in the 4th inning. Every hitter in the lineup had at least on hit during the game while Cam Gallagher had a pair of doubles, Ryan O’Hearn hit his third home run in the last six games and catcher Allan de San Miguel tacked on four singles. The Cards would get their bats rolling later to collect 15 hits of their own but the Naturals put the game safely away with a three run seventh and a single tally in the 8th.

Boxscore Link

Kris Medlen 2 Ip 3 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 5 K 43p/28k
Ryan O’Hearn 2-4 HR 3 RBI, BB
Cam Gallagher 2-4 R, 2-2b, BB

Winston-Salem Dash 4 Wilmington Blue Rocks 3

The Rocks attempting to closeout a sweep of the Dash gave starter Zach Lovvorn his usual lack of run support in dropping Wednesday nights series finale. Lovvorn’s teammates have averaged 1 run per game in Lovvorn appearances this season and gave him zero while he was in the game during this one. With the lack of run support Lovvorn got tagged with another loss (0-7) despite a quality start that saw the starter navigate around 8 hits to allow two runs (1 ER) in his seven innings. Reliever Kyle Kubat would give up another pair of runs in the ninth which prevented the Rocks three run inning from giving them a win.

Boxscore Link

Zach Lovvorn 7 IP 8 H 2 R 1 ER 9-3 GO-FO 96p/62k
Cody Jones 2-3 2-2b, 2BB, RBI
Brandon Downes 1-4 2b

West Virginia Power 12 Lexington Legends 4

The Power roughed up the Legends to finish the three game sweep in Lexington. Nine walks by Lexington pitching combined with 13 West Virginia hits allowed them to cash in 12 runs on the day. Starter Julio Pinto was the first to struggle with the zone, walking three while letting four come across in just one and one-third innings from the struggling Latin righthander. Yunior Marte settled things for a bit with 5.2 innings of one run ball while the offense trimmed a 5-1 Power lead to 5-3 with single runs in the 4th and 6th. When Marte exited the West Virginia offense powered back up with a seven run 8th inning to put the game well out of reach.

Boxscore Link

Anderson Miller 3-3 R, 2-2b, RBI
Yunior Marte 5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 3 K 5-7 GO-FO 85p/54k
DJ Burt 1-4 R, BB

DSL A’s 9 DSL Royals 7

Five errors by the DSL Royals did them in on Wednesday.

Boxscore Link 

Angel Median 2-3 2b, BB, 2 RBI
Rubendy Jaquez 2-2 2R, 2BB
Seuly Matias 1-4 R, BB, 2 RBI

Kris Medlen Makes Me Sad

A constant over this rough patch has been lousy starting pitching, almost every night. Kris Medlen, trying to bounce back from a disaster start against Washington last week, was not good once again. He gave up three hits in the first inning to load the bases, but escaped with minimal damage by allowing just a sacrifice fly. But after the Royals scored twice in the top of the second, Medlen kept the lead for approximately one minute. It took New York two hitters to tie the score. He managed to get a double play, but walked the next two guys to load the bases. Ned Yost, apparently also tired of this, had Brian Flynn warming up during the second inning. Medlen survived the second but after the third inning began with a double and a walk, Flynn was summoned. Medlen’s numbers for the year: six starts, 24 1/3 innings pitched, 30 hits, 20 walks, 18 strikeouts, a 2.05 WHIP, and a 7.77 ERA. He simply cannot be allowed to remain in the rotation, although with Dillon Gee taking Chris Young’s spot, I’m not sure what alternative the Royals have.

Make Lorenzo Cain Great Again

The Royals last year had a heck of a hitter in center field. Lorenzo Cain hit a career-high 16 home runs in 2015. But he had struggled mightily this season, although there were a few signs of life the last few days. The power hadn’t shown up much until tonight, though. Cain homered in the third, putting the Royals back in front, 3-2. After the Yankees retook the lead, Cain put the Royals on top with a three-run bomb in the fifth. And after the Yankees had once again retaken the lead, Cain led off the eighth with a home run to tie it. Cain had two home runs coming into this game, by the way. Pretty good night for at least one Royal. Oh, I shouldn’t forget Cheslor Cuthbert hitting a two-run home run in the second inning. That was pretty sweet.

Defense Doesn’t Slump, They Said

The Royals’ defense is a concern, too. Cain’s lone blemish on the night was a misplay in center field that allowed a run to score in the third inning. The play was not scored an error, but I hope you wrote that in pencil on your scorecard. It is possible that the runner in question would have scored on one of the groundouts that followed, though. However, the biggest mistake in this game was an error by shortstop Alcides Escobar on a very routine grounder in the decisive eighth inning. Instead of two outs, no one on, the Yankees had a runner at first with one down. A double, hit-by-pitch, and another double later, all off Kelvin Herrera, and the Yankees had their 10-7 lead. With Aroldis Chapman ready to fire bullets out of the bullpen, the game was over for all practical purposes.

Good Bullpen, Bad Bullpen, Ugly Bullpen

As part of the effort to make everything that made the Royals awesome the last two years crappy this year, the bullpen allowed six runs. Flynn allowed one in his two innings, although he also allowed the two runners he inherited from Medlen to score. Danny Duffy and Luke Hochevar were nails; each pitched a scoreless inning, with Hochevar striking out the side in his. Then poor Joakim Soria entered the game. He got the first man out, then allowed a soft single to Brian McCann. Carlos Beltran stepped in, and Soria appeared to strike him out. Not so fast! Second base umpire Will Little called a balk. Beltran grounded out, but another softly-hit single by Dustin Ackley brought McCann in to score. It looked like Alex Gordon had a great chance to nail McCann at home, but the throw sailed well over Salvador Perez’s head. Ackley moved up to second and scored on a double. And all that was before Herrera’s poor eighth inning.

If You Can Stomach It

The Royals will again try for their first win in Yankee Stadium since September 7, 2014 tomorrow night at 6:05 pm Central. At this point, you can be forgiven if you’d rather wash your hair, change the litter box, or alphabetize the cheeses in your refrigerator. The pitching matchup is Yordano Ventura against Michael Pineda, and you can watch on Fox Sports KC in the local market or on ESPN if you’re somewhere else. Maybe tomorrow night the baseball gods will again smile on Kansas City.

Photo credit: Brad Penner, USA Today Sports

In an article for The Kansas City Star on March 24, Kris Medlen was quoted thusly: “You get locked into throwing the baseball a certain way, and it’s hard to pick up and get a new pitch. It would probably take some time. I’m sure I could, but I really like to keep things simple.”

As it turns out, Medlen was right, in that he could learn a new pitch. And apparently “some time” is actually just a few weeks.

Pitch f/x data has Kris Medlen throwing a cutter for the first time. He says it’s a slider he’s been working on. It’s felt good so far.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) April 22, 2016

To be completely fair, this isn’t the first time Medlen’s thrown a cutter/slider*. According to Pitchf/x, he tinkered around with one for a few starts in 2012, as well as in the middle of his 2013 season. But this is the first time Medlen seems intent on fully incorporating the pitch into his repertoire.

*Some might call it a slider. Some might call it a cutter. Truth be told, I don’t know what it’s called. I just know the sound it makes when it takes a bat’s life. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll be referring to the pitch from here on out as a slider. The two pitches can often be looked at in a similar light, and are often confused with each other, so we’ll default to the pitcher’s preference. Also, Baseball Savant is classifying it as a slider. A vote of 2-to-1 means the motion passes.

It didn’t take long for Medlen to get used to his new offering. In his season debut, he threw 28 sliders against the Astros, getting 13 swings, and 8 whiffs. In his next start, he threw 14 sliders, which induced 7 swings, and 3 whiffs. And on Saturday night, Medlen threw 14 sliders, which resulted in 8 swings, and 3 whiffs.

On the season, Medlen’s thrown his slider more often than every pitch but his sinker. It’s also been quite effective, as it boasts the highest strike rate, swing rate, whiff rate, and whiff-per-swing rate among all of his pitches, as evidenced by the following chart:

Opponents are 4-14 against Medlen’s slider this year, although three of those hits came on Saturday, including a double from Manny Machado that was positively scorched, coming off the bat at more than 111 mph. Generally speaking, however, Medlen hasn’t given up much with his new pitch this season, small sample size though it may be.

The reasons for Medlen’s early success with the slider appear to be multi-faceted. The first thing that jumped out to me was simply the newness of the pitch. Opponents haven’t seen this from Medlen before, so batters haven’t had a chance to adjust yet. The slider doesn’t fit in with Medlen’s other pitches, as far as movement goes, so it’s a different look. Here’s a chart of Medlen’s other four pitches, based on horizontal and vertical movement, prior to this season.

You’ll notice a rather large gap between the cluster of fastballs and changeups and the cluster of curveballs. Now look at this season’s chart.

I should note that the second chart is grouped by inning instead of game, as a way to provide more data points. It’s also more visually appealing, which is nice.

The slider (I know it’s called a cutter in the chart, but stick with me here) fills that gap in movement, and it does so at a similar velocity as his changeup. Medlen can also throw the slider up to around 89 mph, which isn’t too far off of his sinker, which averages just north of 91 mph. This leads to the second possible reason for his positive results on the slider, in that it doesn’t look demonstrably different out of his hand.

His arm may drop slightly lower on the slider, but it’s not much – maybe a fraction of an inch – and it’s very similar to the curveball, which obviously has a much different break. In other words, Medlen isn’t giving away anything based on his arm slot, and because it’s in a similar velocity band to other pitches, it’s a difficult pitch to pick up right away.

It’s also a difficult pitch to pick up, because he’s willing to throw it in various counts.

He hasn’t fully unleashed it against lefties, but it’s not a pitch they can completely eliminate after the first pitch, either. And if opponents fall into two-strike counts, they might as well roll a die to figure out what’s coming next.

Because the league hasn’t seen this from Medlen before, and because of how and when he throws his slider, it’s been very tough for hitters to square it up, if they make contact at all.

The 50 percent whiff-per-swing rate on his slider is higher than every other starter’s cutter, and it would rank among the top 12 among starters’ sliders. When they do make contact, it’s been on the ground more often than not, with a 75 percent ground ball rate.

I’ve got to say, I think Medlen’s new pitch experiment seems to be going quite well. Obviously it’s still early, and things could change as hitters get a chance to see the slider on film and/or in person, but what we’ve seen thus far is encouraging. It’s a pitch that gives batters another thing to think about, and as he continues to become more comfortable with it, he might be able to make it even better. Perhaps learning a new pitch isn’t always as difficult as it seems.

Blown double play opportunities. Botched rundowns. Missed cutoff men. The only thing this one was missing was a Very Special Guest appearance from Jose Guillen. Games like this are best forgotten. But the webmaster says we must recap. Apologies in advance.

WPA Play of the Game

Strangely enough, it’s the lone Royals highlight of the game: The Salvador Perez home run in the bottom of the second that tied the game. A half-inning after the Orioles took a 2-0 lead, Perez got a belt-high fastball on the inner half and crushed it. That home run was worth 21 percent on the Royals Win Expectancy meter. It made you think that it would be business as usual at The K. That feeling didn’t last long.

Scoring Early And Often

Kris Medlen did not have it working on Saturday. After two relatively good starts, the wheels fell off in the second when he served a center-cut fastball at the knees that Chris Davis clobbered to lead off the inning. He retired the next two batters, but a walk and back to back singles plated another run.

The same scenario was played out in the third when Medlen walked Adam Jones who came around to score after two more singles.

The fourth inning held promise, but was derailed by a poorly executed double play pivot turned by Omar Infante. The Royals want you to believe surgery has Infante healthy. You don’t need a medical degree to disagree with their assessment. Far too often in the small sample size of the first three weeks of the season, Infante’s arm has frequently been al dente.

The Orioles are a good offensive team. If you want to give them bonus opportunities, do so at your own risk. Especially Manny Machado. That’s not going to work out so well. Medlen couldn’t survive the fourth. Dillon Gee entered the fray, coughed up his inherited runners, but otherwise pitched well. By this point, the Royals Win Expectancy had been reduced to eight percent. Not tonight. Not their night.

The Took The Fun Out Of Fundamentals

One of the joys of watching this team is how they just seem to do everything right. Hey, even the best can’t perform at the peak every night. The scars are still there, though. I may have developed a some sort of twitch when Alcides Escobar ran Davis back to first after he dropped a base hit down the right field line, only to throw the ball to Eric Hosmer, who could just watch helplessly as Davis scooted freely to second when no one covered the bag. Sniff. That bouquet carries a hint of 2009. It was not a very good vintage. Best you shove the cork back in the bottle and dump it in the sewer.

Up Next

The Royals close out the homestand, sending Yordano Ventura to the mound against Mike Wright. It’s a 1:15 start time. That’s the thing about this great game. A stinker Saturday, a chance for redemption Sunday.

I like parts of the A’s offense this season, but they haven’t really clicked yet in the early going of 2016. They’ve got some speed, some pop, some guys who can get on base and a fair amount of versatility on their roster. Prior to the season, they added Yonder Alonso to play first, Jed Lowrie to play second, Khris Davis to man left field and Chris Coghlan to be a jack of all trades for them. All have their strong attributes. Alonso can work a walk. Lowrie can as well and has some pop. Davis can hit the ball a very long way. And Coghlan is just a solid hitter. I’m not really a fan of any of them from a defensive perspective, but how important is defense anyway (says the Royals fan, smirking)?

Behind the plate is Stephen Vogt, who looked like an MVP candidate in the first half of last season before hitting .217/.280/.349 after the All-Star break. Danny Valencia was acquired midseason by the A’s last year and was a revelation in Oakland, hitting .284/.356/.530. He was everything the Royals had hoped he would be for them in 2014, but wasn’t. He’s off to a somewhat slow start this year, but you know what they say. It’s early. “They” is everyone in this case. The two best hitters in the lineup are probably Marcus Semien and Josh Reddick. Reddick is incredibly underrated to me. I think he can really do it all. He’s a good defender, works a walk, has power. He’s actually kind of the perfect player for the Royals. Semien, on the other hand, can hit a little bit, but he’s not exactly a wizard with the glove. He has gotten better, though. The A’s brought in Ron Washington to work with him, and he improved throughout the season last year and has been passable most of the time this year. Of course, I haven’t watched a ton of A’s baseball, so maybe I’ve missed him looking better.

The rest of the A’s are kind of hot and cold. Our old friend, Billy Butler, is pretty much relegated to platoon duty as it looks like he’s getting close to being done in the game. Another former Royal getting playing time is Coco Crisp, who looks pretty decent this year after battling injuries for the last couple. Billy Burns is really fast and plays a solid center field. It remains to be seen if he’ll hit enough, but for now, he’s working out just fine for them. The bench is rounded out by Josh Phegley and Mark Canha. They’re both guys who are good for some occasional power and can get hot and work as starters for a couple weeks at a time here and there. Eventually they’ll get Sam Fuld and Eric Sogard back and have to make some roster choices. I think this A’s offense will be decent this year, but the parts need to work together.

The A’s starting pitching staff has been made over a bit, but the constant is the ace, Sonny Gray. The guy can pitch, and in spite of what they say, he’ll likely be the next player they deal for quite a haul. Behind him in the rotation right now is Chris Bassitt, who has been surprisingly successful in his big league career. I say that because I’m just not a fan of his stuff or command, but he’s made it work so far. Kendall Graveman is an intriguing arm for the A’s, who they acquired as part of the Josh Donaldson deal. He’s going to get every chance to become a mainstay for them. Eric Surkamp has been pressed into action for them with injury issues, so we’ll see how that experiment goes. And the final guy is Rich Hill, who was able to parlay four brilliant starts at the end of 2015 into a $6 million deal for one year with the A’s. He’s been good in his first two starts but has hit four batters, so that’s something to watch out for in this one.

The A’s also remade their bullpen, which they sort of had to. One addition was just a return from injury by their star closer, Sean Doolitte. Reports are that he looks good, but he did blow a save on Tuesday night, so he might still be a work in progress. The A’s also picked up a couple former Royals in Ryan Madson and Liam Hendriks to shore up the setup area. Madson has even picked up a couple saves in the early going. Hendriks has been scored on quite a bit, but he looked really good as a reliever with the Blue Jays last year, so I’d expect he can turn it around. They picked up John Axford to try to revive his career (though they gave him two years, so maybe they think it’s been revived). We’ll see how that goes for them. They also have Ryan Dull and Marc Rzepczynski  along with Fernando Rodriguez to round out the unit. I think it’s better than last year, but it’s definitely not a top tier bullpen.

Friday – Edinson Volquez vs. Rich Hill
To say it’s been quite a journey for Rich Hill would be an understatement. Early in his career, he was a well regarded prospect who the Cubs thought could be one of their next great starters. He had some good seasons even; control was his undoing. After leaving the Cubs, he bounced around the AL East (with stops in Cleveland and LA for good measure) before finally getting a late season opportunity with the Red Sox. Speaking of understatements, he made the most of it. In four starts, he went 29 innings, gave up 14 hits, struck out 36 and walked just 5. That earned him a deal with the A’s, and he’s had a decent showing in his first two starts, but with a crazy good strikeout rate and a good walk rate. Hill has faced the Royals 11 times in his career. He made two starts against them in 2009 and nine relief appearances against them in 2013. He’s gone 10.2 innings, given up 15 hits and struck out 10 while walking 8 in those appearances, which resulted in a 5.91 ERA for him.

Three things to watch for against Hill:

1. Hill is a fastball-curve guy, and that has been a good combination for him since he resurfaced. The fastball isn’t special with regard to velocity, but it does have a lot of movement, which is part of why he has struggled with control at times. The curve is the strikeout pitch for Hill, but it can hang, so it’s not one to just let go by every single time. He also does mix in a slider from time to time to keep hitters honest. He has a change, but he rarely uses it.
2. There’s just not much data on the new Rich Hill to determine what works and what doesn’t against him. And, quite frankly, not much has worked against him. A couple things to note, though, are that he will start an at bat with that curve ball, but that’s when it seems to hang a little from what I’ve seen, so Royals hitters should beware of that. He also has gone to his slider mostly when he’s behind in the count to right-handed batters.
3. Last year, he was murder on lefties and righties alike. This year, he’s actually gotten hit really hard by some lefties, but the sample is so small that it’s hard to tell what’s just noise and what’s worth believing. Royals hitters have 16 total plate appearances against Hill, with the only hits coming from Kendrys Morales, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar.

Volquez has started off his 2016 in style with a lot of strikeouts and a couple really solid pitching performances. He’ll get the chance to pitch in a place that seems like it should be good for him, especially at night against a not great offense. I think this could be the start that we see Volquez give the Royals seven innings to help keep the bullpen a little better rested. He’s 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA in four career starts against the A’s. Coghlan has worked three walks against him and Davis has two doubles against him, but there’s not much data around the A’s matchups with Volquez as he just hasn’t faced them much.

Saturday – Chris Young vs. Sonny Gray
For a guy who has finished in the top three of a Cy Young vote, thrown 200+ innings each of the last two seasons and owns a career ERA under 3, I’d say that Gray is underrated. He’s hard to hit, gets swings and misses, limits walks pretty well and will give you innings. I think some question his durability due to his 5’10” frame, but until proven otherwise, I’m sold that he’s a horse at the top of a rotation. He may not be a Chris Sale-type ace with the overpowering stuff, but he’s definitely an ace. In three career starts against the Royals, he’s pitched well, but is 0-2 with a 3.15 ERA. The Royals did hit him in a start last year, but that’s the one where he got a no-decision. Baseball can be funny.

Three things to watch for against Gray:

1. Gray sits at around 94 MPH with his sinker, just like Bassitt does, but the pitches are just better for Gray. They’re crisper and have a little more movement on them. Also like Bassitt, he throws a slider and a curve, but the slider can be devastating when it’s on. It gets a ton of swings and misses. The curve is very good too, but it’s not on the level of his slider. That is definitely an underrated pitch among hurlers in the big leagues.
2. Here’s an idea of how good Sonny Gray is. Most pitchers are pretty good when they’re ahead in the count and can be hurt when they’re behind in the count. Obviously Gray could get hurt behind in the count, but he’s one of the best in baseball at still getting outs even in those situations. Last year, he allowed just a .731 OPS with just 11 extra base hits when he was behind in the count. The guy can pitch.
3. Last year, he was slightly better against lefties, but in his career, he’s just tough on batters from both sides of the plate, which is to be expected from someone of his caliber. Nobody in the Royals lineup has faced Gray a ton, but Eric Hosmer is 3 for 3 against him, which is notable in a way. Lorenzo Cain also has two hits against him and two walks, so maybe he sees the ball well against him, too.

So far this season, Young has had one solid start and one rough go of it. I think a lot of the last start is that he just isn’t a good fit for that park or against that offense in Houston. It happens. He gets the chance to move to a park that definitely fits his style much better against an offense that isn’t quite as good at mashing mistakes. Young has faced the A’s 11 times in his career with 10 of those starts. He has a career 4-4 record with a 3.48 ERA in those 11 games. Over the last two seasons, he’s faced the A’s seven times with six being starts. He’s 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 32.2 innings in those games. Among A’s hitters who have seen Young, Lowrie is really the only one who has done any real damage against him, and that’s in just 11 plate appearances.

Sunday – Kris Medlen vs. Chris Bassitt
For a guy who has finished in the top three of a Cy Young vote, thrown 200+ innings each of the last two seasons and owns a career ERA under 3, I’d say that Gray is underrated. He’s hard to hit, gets swings and misses, limits walks pretty well and will give you innings. I think some question his durability due to his 5’10” frame, but until proven otherwise, I’m sold that he’s a horse at the top of a rotation. He may not be a Chris Sale-type ace with the overpowering stuff, but he’s definitely an ace. In three career starts against the Royals, he’s pitched well, but is 0-2 with a 3.15 ERA. The Royals did hit him in a start last year, but that’s the one where he got a no-decision. Baseball can be funny.

Three things to watch for against Bassitt:

1. Bassitt throws a fastball/sinker combo with decent velocity. Both come in around 94 MPH. The sinker doesn’t move as much as you would like, which is why his career ground ball rate is at around 44 percent. He also throws a slider and a curve. Both are good pitches, but aren’t the swing and miss pitches you’d like to see. I guess that’s what makes him a back of the rotation guy rather than a front of the rotation guy.
2. One reason I just don’t see it as an every fifth day type starter for Bassitt is that he gets smoked when a lineup sees him a third time. The first two times through, he’s actually quite good. I think a lot of that is because his breaking pitches are quality enough, but not so great that repetition doesn’t help against them. The first two times through the order, Bassitt allows a sub-.700 OPS. The third time through, though, that number jumps to .872 in his career.
3. He actually has a reverse platoon split in his career, holding lefties to a .658 OPS compared to .733 against right-handed batters. Escobar, Moustakas and Alex Gordon all have multiple hits against Bassitt, but I have a hunch this is a good matchup for Morales.

Medlen had what I’d call a solid first start against Houston on Tuesday night. He seemed to fight some command issues throughout the game, but he also hadn’t pitched in about two weeks prior. I’ve been excited for Medlen all spring, and now that the season is here and he’s already shown what kind of makeup he has on the mound this season, I’m even more excited. I think he should do a decent job of navigating through this A’s offense in this park, though the ball does jump a little more during the day. Medlen has never faced the A’s in his career. He has faced Coghlan 16 times, though, and has allowed a .545/.688/.545 line to him, so watch out there.

Coming off a tough series against the Astros, I could see a bit of a letdown for the Royals as they head to Oakland, but I trust in this team to not falter. They’re better than the A’s, but I have to say the matchup against Hill and his curve is a little concerning. And Gray is really good too. So while I don’t think the A’s are especially great, I do think the Royals have their work cut out for them. I’ll predict a series win for the Royals here, but it won’t be easy.