Kansas City » Lance McCullers

Series Preview: Royals at Houston Astros, June 22-24

David Lesky — Fri, 22 Jun 2018 15:00:23 +0000

What could go wrong? One of the worst teams in baseball now has to go on the road to face one of the very best just a few days after getting swept by them at home. Yes, that’s right, the Royals now have to take on the Houston Astros in their home park, which could get really ugly. We just talked about the Astros and just saw them, so you probably don’t need much of a rehash. The moral of the Astros story is that they’re really, really good and they shine even brighter compared to the Royals.

Astros Vitals

Record	50-26, 1^st Place, AL West
Team TAv	.287
Team SP DRA	2.74
Team RP DRA	2.47
Team WARP Leader	Justin Verlander, 3.9
Record vs. Royals	3-0

Royals vs. Astros

Offense

Pitching

Astros Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
George Springer	.279	.355	.486	.305	2.4
Alex Bregman	.268	.374	.471	.307	2.7
Jose Altuve	.347	.401	.495	.320	2.9
Carlos Correa	.270	.352	.488	.301	3.1
Yulieski Gurriel	.300	.324	.396	.275	0.7
Josh Reddick	.241	.328	.382	.278	1.1
Evan Gattis	.255	.312	.505	.291	0.9
Marwin Gonzalez	.257	.331	.398	.286	1.1
Brian McCann	.217	.301	.348	.256	0.3

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Danny Duffy	15	82.1	3	7	5.55	7.07	-1.8
Dallas Keuchel	15	91.0	4	8	4.15	3.49	1.8

All the struggles that Keuchel had earlier in the year were wiped away when he faced the Royals last weekend. He gave up just two unearned runs over six innings, striking out five and walking just one. He did get his pitch count up a little bit, but he got a ton of ground balls, which is what he does, and he had his highest games core since May 13 when he threw seven shutout innings against Texas. The Royals did force him to throw 25 pitches in the first inning, though they didn’t score, but if they can raise his pitch count similarly in this one, maybe they can find more success. Whit Merrifield did pick up two hits against him, but there’s not really any other Royals hitters who have had much in the way of success against him.

Duffy remains a mystery, though there was some positives from his start Sunday against Houston, even in a game where he allowed six runs in six innings. He started off poor and ended poor, but his stuff did look good again. The Astros didn’t have any problems with it, though, as they only swung and missed six times. He also keeps walking too many hitters, now totaling 13 over his last four starts, spanning just 24 innings. The Astros lineup is a tough task for anyone to navigate, but I feel like Duffy with that short porch in right facing Springer, Altuve, Gattis, Bregman, Correa and Gurriel has a chance to be a real disaster. To be fair, I think just about any pitcher against that lineup in that park has a chance to be a real disaster, but Duffy’s .277/.361/.513 line allowed to righties has me especially worried. And if you were wondering, Springer, Alutve and Marwin Gonzalez all have better than a 1.000 OPS against Duffy in their limited matchups.

Saturday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Ian Kennedy	15	79.2	1	7	5.31	5.39	-0.2
Lance McCullers, Jr.	15	88.1	8	3	3.77	3.43	1.8

McCullers was the one Astros starter to struggle a bit over the weekend against the Royals, giving up four runs on six hits in six innings, though only two of the runs were earned and he did strike out nine hitters. He also got a very impressive 16 swinging strikes, so he had Royals hitters guessing quite a bit. As we discussed last week, he throws a ton of curves and it’s usually a really good pitch for him. Last week was a mixed bag. He got swings and misses on 25.5 percent of them, but only recorded outs on two of the eight that were put into play. It was one of his worst games of the year with his curve in terms of linear weighted outcome, so that’s something to watch for in this one. Salvador Perez was 2 for 3 against him on Sunday and is 5 for 11 with three home runs against him in his career, including postseason. Mike Moustakas was 1 for 1 with a walk before being ejected and is 5 for 12 with a homer against him in his career.

After two straight starts pitching really well, Kennedy got back to the usual against the Rangers on Monday, giving up five runs on four hits in six innings. He did notch eight strikeouts, which was encouraging, but he just wasn’t especially sharp from the first batter on. I wonder a bit if he’s having trouble finding his release point from the stretch. With the bases empty, Kennedy has allowed a not great but passable .265/.319/.429 line with a 6.9 percent walk rate. But with runners on, he’s allowed .305/.383/.573 with a walk rate of 11.1 percent. With runners in scoring position, the walk rate is even worse, jumping to 12.5 percent. This may be the most surprising stat you’ll read for awhile. Kennedy is 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in three starts at Minute Maid Park. So chew on that.

Sunday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Jason Hammel	15	90.1	2	8	4.88	6.27	-1.1
Justin Verlander	16	107.0	9	2	1.60	2.11	3.9

The Royals haven’t yet seen Verlander in an Astros uniform, which is probably good given how bad they’ve been offensively since he was traded. He’s been amazing, going 14-2 with a 1.47 Era in 141 innings with 173 strikeouts and just 26 walks. He’s also allowed just 79 hits with the Astros, so there should probably be a no-hitter alert on this game before it even starts. Verlander is so scary because he had to learn how to pitch when his stuff escaped him a few years ago and now he’s learned to pitch and his stuff is back. He’s throwing his fastball about 61 percent of the time and averaging 95-96 MPH. Opponents are hitting .184 against it with just 13 extra base hits in 212 at bats. His slider and curve are even more disgusting, accounting for 70 of his 130 strikeouts and holding opponents to a .124 average on the slider and .135 on the curve. If you’re looking for a number that shows weakness, you can stop. The closest thing is that he allows an OPS of .412 the first time through (yes, OPS), .436 the second time and then .721 the third time. But even that isn’t bad. The only Royals hitter with any significant plate appearances against Verlander who has done well is Salvador Perez, who famously has hit .413/.418/.667 with two homers, eight doubles and a triple against him in 67 plate appearances.

Hammel wasn’t horrible in his last start, but he wasn’t especially great. Still, he’s now posted a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts and has averaged more than six innings per start, which will play for a back of the rotation guy. He did walk four batters on Tuesday after walking just five in his previous five starts, so that’s worth watching, but he’s been pitching at a perfectly acceptable level. Like Kennedy, Hammel has been surprisingly good against the Astros in his career, going 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in 53.2 innings with just 40 hits allowed. He hasn’t had the success at Minute Maid, though, going 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA in four starts. He’s actually held down the Astros he’s faced pretty well, so that’s something, I suppose.

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.

Series Preview: Royals vs. Houston Astros, June 15-17

David Lesky — Fri, 15 Jun 2018 17:00:15 +0000

Next up for the Royals is the defending world champion Houston Astros, so I guess you could say that it can always get worse. The Astros probably aren’t too surprised to find themselves in a battle for first place, but I doubt they expected it to be with the Mariners. Their rotation has been outstanding with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole looking like Cy Young candidates, Charlie Morton not far behind and Lance McCullers and Dallas Keuchel acting as the best 4/5 starters we’ve seen in awhile. Offensively, the lineup just keeps coming at you with balance from top to bottom. If there’s a slight weakness on this team, it’d be the bullpen. And calling the bullpen a weakness is an overstatement. Ken Giles has struggled some as closer, but they’ve gotten outstanding work from pretty much everyone else outside of maybe Will Harris, and he’s posted a 2.30 ERA and 3.11 FIP over his three seasons in Houston, so even his down year comes with potential upside if he can figure it out.

Astros Vitals

Record	45-25, 1^st Place, AL West
Team TAv	.262
Team SP DRA	2.70
Team RP DRA	2.52
Team WARP Leader	Gerrit Cole & Justin Verlander, 3.5
2017 vs. Royals	3-4 (yes, somehow)

Royals vs. Astros

Offense

Pitching

Astros Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
George Springer	.293	.367	.507	.289	1.9
Alex Bregman	.262	.372	.441	.271	1.3
Jose Altuve	.338	.388	.465	.283	1.7
Carlos Correa	.272	.360	.483	.280	2.4
Yulieski Gurriel	.302	.322	.405	.259	0.3
Josh Reddick	.234	.330	.386	.254	0.6
Evan Gattis	.245	.305	.495	.267	0.3
Brian McCann	.216	.308	.360	.246	0.1
Tony Kemp	.301	.381	.425	.272	0.4

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Charlie Morton	13	76.2	7	1	2.82	2.90	1.9
Jakob Junis	13	80.0	5	6	4.05	4.68	0.4

Morton has had an interesting career. He’s had some decent seasons in the past, but has had some trouble staying healthy. He’s mimicked the great Roy Halladay with his motion before, among many of the things he’s tried to become a great pitcher. The answer, though, was pretty much just throwing as hard as he could. And it’s worked. He had a nice season for the Astros last year and really up until his last two starts was having a truly amazing season this year. He walked six in his last start in 3.2 innings and gave up six runs in the start before that, so his season has been downgraded to merely excellent, but the 34-year old is really doing some things. Like I said, he throws hard. He averages 97 with his four-seam fastball that he throws about 32 percent of the team. He also throws a sinker at about 96 MPH about a quarter of the time. And then there’s the piece de resistance, his curve. He throws it a lot and it’s responsible for 58 of his 96 strikeouts. The good news is the Royals don’t completely crap the bed against curves, but Morton’s is a different animal. It could get ugly the way this offense is going. Morton hasn’t faced the Royals much in his career and not at all since joining the Astros, so the career numbers lose what little meaning they had, but he is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in two starts, if you just had to know.

When Junis is on, he can compete against any offense and any opposing starting pitcher. When he’s not, fans in the seats can be on the lookout for souvenirs. He relies so heavily on his slider that if it’s not working, it might be a long night (or short, depending on how you view it). He’s allowed 15 home runs this year in 80 innings, which is a lot, but he’s only allowed multiple home runs in three starts, which account for 73 percent of the home runs he’s allowed. What I like is that he’s increased his strikeouts significantly, striking out 51 in his last 47.2 innings and 28 in his last 23.2. The Astros have done okay against sliders, but if Junis has his working, it doesn’t matter who you are; you’ll struggle. Junis did face the Astros last year, but didn’t fare well, allowing seven runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings. This was before he returned to the big leagues later in the year, but still was a rough start.

Saturday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Dallas Keuchel	14	85.0	3	8	4.45	3.53	1.6
Danny Duffy	14	76.2	3	6	5.28	7.14	-1.7

I picked Keuchel to win the Cy Young this season, so of course he’s the worst of the five Astros starters. A lot of what went wrong for him in 2016 when he struggled after his Cy Young 2015 is what’s gone wrong this year. He’s allowed too many hits and more home runs than you’d expect for a guy with his sinker. His ground ball rate has dropped from 66.8 percent last year to 54.4 percent this year and he’s gone 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in his last five starts, spanning just 27 innings. In that time, he’s allowed a whopping 41 hits. One potential reason is his sinker just isn’t sinking as much. Last year, he averaged 5.5 inches of vertical movement on it, but this year, that’s down a full inch. That’s pretty significant. He’s using it less, replacing it with a cutter, which opponents are struggling a bit with, but have hit for some extra base pop. Keuchel has faced the Royals six times in the regular season and is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA. The Royals have been able to touch him up for some hits, with 44 in 40.2 innings, and they’ve magically hit six home runs against him in that time, which is actually the most of any non-division opponent. Of all players, Alcides Escobar is a career .333 hitter against Keuchel with a double and a home run in 24 at bats. It also would be nice if Cheslor Cuthbert was healthy for this because he’s 5 for 9 with two homers and two doubles against Keuchel.

Duffy has hit his stride and after a third good start out of his last four, it’s beginning to look like the corner might be close to being turned. He’s still walking too many hitters, but he continues to use his fastball more and has a 2.10 ERA now over his last four starts with just 18 hits allowed in 25.2 innings. That was maybe the most concerning thing about his struggles because even when Duffy wasn’t pitch efficient and was too wild, he limited hard contact enough to still be effective. Earlier this year, he couldn’t do anything right. He had a ridiculous 18.4 percent whiff rate in his last start against Oakland, which is by far his best of the season. As is usually the case when Duffy is good, his changeup was the star of the show. He threw it 34 times, got 18 swings and nine whiffs on it. He has a big test in Houston, but he pitched well against them last year, going seven innings and allowing just two runs.

Sunday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Lance McCullers	14	82.1	8	3	3.83	3.45	1.6
Brad Keller	24	35.0	1	2	2.31	5.10	-0.1

McCullers has been a bit uneven this year, but the numbers all look generally pretty good. His strikeouts are down a bit, and his walks are up a bit, but he’s allowing the fewest hits per inning of his career. Like Duffy, he’s coming off a solid start against the A’s where he went seven innings and gave up just two runs. If you recall, McCullers lived on his curve during a couple of his playoff outings last season and he’s carried that into the season a bit, throwing it 43 percent of the time, more than any other pitch, though that usage is down from last year when he threw it nearly half the time. Opponents are hitting just .205 with a .353 slugging percentage against it and have struck out 54 times (out of 81 strikeouts). His sinker has been okay enough, but it’s been hit relatively hard with a .207 ISO. Likely because of that curve, McCullers has dominated lefties, holding them to a .171/.263/.329 line while righties have hit a much more respectable .274/.339/.411. And as is true with so many pitchers, opponents hit him much better the third time, checking in with a .292/.370/.500 line.

Keller was up to 85 pitches in his third career start, so I’d imagine the training wheels are about off for this one. He wasn’t as sharp, walking four batters, but he did get 12 swinging strikes in his 85 pitches, which is certainly enough to get the job done. He faces a really tough test with the Astros offense, which leads to a situation where if he performs really well, the hype for him will be off the charts, but if he struggles, many will write it off as a pitcher struggling against a team so many struggle against. As has been the case with his previous starts, I’m curious about how he holds velocity. In his last start, he averaged 96.1 MPH with his four-seamer and topped out at 98.5, so the result so far has been pretty good. If he can maintain that, he has a shot to succeed.

I mean, I guess the Royals could win a game here. They beat the Yankees, after all. I’m not going to predict it, though.