Before I go on, I want to hedge a bet and couch my statement and sit on a fence and do everything that allows me to wriggle away from this opinion if pressed too hard. Okay, maybe it’s not that as much as player comparisons are tricky and just because I’m about to compare Whit to a player we actually know quite well doesn’t mean he’ll follow that career path. I really just thought the comparison was kind of interesting. Let’s take a look and then I’ll get into it.

Age-27 Season

Age-28 Season

Age-29 Season

So it’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but you see a similar progression. And just for fun, check out how both players fared in AAA at the age of 25:

Again, these players aren’t necessarily all that similar, but they’ve had a somewhat similar progression to get where they are today. By this point, you’ve probably realized that Player X is former Royals great, Lorenzo Cain. And at this point, you also probably know that Whit Merrifield changed his training regimen and became a bit of a different player after being passed over for a promotion during the 2015 season after Alex Gordon got hurt.

I’m not here to say that Whit Merrifield will age just like Lorenzo Cain, but it’s worth noting that in the following three seasons from his age-29 season, Cain hit .299/.368/.424 with his typically stellar defense. Upon his move to the Brewers, his walk numbers kicked up with a rate above 11 percent and his strikeout rate continued to impress. Athleticism tends to age pretty well, and Merrifield is a lot closer to the caliber athlete of Cain than many probably realize.

And while Cain has higher value, as you can see from his 11.1 WARP from his age-27 though age-29 season (and that’s 4.3 WARP/600 PA for him in that time) compared to Whit’s 7.9 WARP (2.8/600 PA), I think at least some of that gap can be bridged with Merrifield’s versatility. While Cain is an outstanding defender in center field, and maybe even better than that, Merrifield can handle second base and all three outfield positions well. I think we might even find out in the next few months how well he can handle third base as that seems to be an option for his near future.

You might be wondering if I have a point here, and the answer is that I don’t really. I was thinking that I bet Merrifield and Cain had pretty similar big league career paths, and so far, they do. Also, looking at the comparison made me think about just how athletic Merrifield is and while second basemen don’t tend to age well, I’m not sure classifying him as a second baseman only is really fair to him. He’s more of an athlete who happens to be playing second base. Maybe that’s looking through Royal Blue glasses, but I think there’s a distinction there.

I think it’s fair to make a bit of an assumption and say that Merrifield will be a productive player for the next year or two and maybe even all the way through his arbitration years. The only projection system currently released, Steamer, has Merrifield projected to hit .275/.329/.405. Prior to the season, PECOTA projected him to hit .254/.304/.393 in 2019, but that was before he followed up his breakout season with another very good season. I’d take the big time over on PECOTA and a general over on the current Steamer projection as well.

I do believe trading Merrifield is ultimately what’s best for the team in the long run, but I don’t think it necessarily has to be done tomorrow or even before the season. If the right offer comes, sure, pull the trigger, but I believe Merrifield has a good chance to be more like Cain and give a few more solid years. If the right offer doesn’t come right now, I don’t belief the risk is all that significant to wait.

1. Re-sign Lorenzo Cain
2. Re-sign Mike Moustakas
3. Re-sign Eric Hosmer
4. Donate an eye to Rusty Kuntz so he could keep coaching first base
5. Frame Ian Kennedy for a felony
6. Re-sign Jason Vargas
7. Get hit by a bus
8. Get hit by a larger bus going at a higher rate of speed
9. Re-sign Melky Cabrera
10. Get mauled to death by a cheetah
11. Have said cheetah show up at my funeral and maul my wife and son to death
12. Re-sign Alcides Escobar

So the last four-five days…not great. I am on high alert for cheetahs at the moment.

David touched on the Escobar stuff on Friday, and Craig wrote a stirring remembrance for LoCain the same day, and they’re both better at this than I am so I’ll keep my comments there relatively brief. I’ll say that I thought LoCain would be the easiest to sign; since he signed first, I declare myself correct! Teamed with Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun—and Keon Broxton, and Domingo Santana and someday Corey Ray and good God, the Brewers are making the whole team out of outfielders—in Milwaukee, that’s suddenly an intriguing collection of talent to play in the outfield, move around to accommodate new additions and dangle as trade chips. Good for LoCain; he deserves to be back in the postseason and Milwaukee gives him a chance.

Brewers fans, get ready for at least one of these moments:

Lorenzo Cain is a wizard

Losing Cain, while a body blow the Royals won’t soon recover from, hurts, it is not unexpected. What is unexpected is why the brass saw fit to stage a one-team bidding war for a shortstop who can’t hit, can’t get on base and can only be described as slightly above-average in the field. I don’t intend to poop on a one-year deal, because it’s only a one-year deal…Dayton Moore didn’t get that signature on the contract and think, “Alright, got our shortstop locked up for the next championship team!”

Okay, I don’t know that. But I hope he didn’t.

What I don’t understand about this signing, or this tweet that gave me the same shiver that I assume one gets when someone walks over their future grave site…

jays, royals, pirates, marlins, orioles, braves among potential fits for melky

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 27, 2018

…is why the Royals are in a rush to lock up a 95-loss season. What possible sense does it make to already throw up a panic flare in January? Maybe Raul Mondesi Jr. and one of the Jorge’s won’t pan out and you’ll…be screwed in the same general manner, only while also being on the hook for less money? Only you didn’t signal to the world that Mondesi was a bust and lock yourself into another few months of Melky for reasons that defy all logic. Play the children—letting them languish in Triple-A or spot-start in the majors stunts their growth and will never give you a full read on what you have in them.

Having already signed Esky, the damage is done there. He’s on a short deal, and I’d wager in his heart even he knows he’s probably not terribly good anymore. One can still reasonably foresee an outfield that’s configured with the Jorge’s (Soler and Bonifacio) and Alex Gordon in some capacity, with Whit Merrifield at second and whatever other pieces come together on the corners. Esky can hit ninth. He could have someone DH for him and let the pitcher hit (not the worst idea, TBH).

Sign Cabrera and everything is blown to bits. He’s going to start. And that precludes signing Logan Morrison (the most obviously intriguing player for reasons Lesky has been trumpeting for two months now), because now Brandon Moss has to play first in order to get Soler or Bonifacio some at-bats as designated hitters and God, why is this so hard? Morrison wants to come home. Sign Morrison. Leave Melky Cabrera alone. Leave him I said! No! No touch Melky!

Even though Cain is off the market, the future homes of Hosmer and Moustakas remain very much in doubt. A small part of me wonders how much that factors into decisions like retaining Esky and pursuing, however half-heartedly, Melky. It does give the appearance of being Serious 2018 Baseball Franchise and not a prelude to the rebuild the Royals so desperately need.

To which I say: if Alcides Escobar and Melky Cabrera are the carrots you’re dangling for potential signees, you’ve already lost good sir. Give it up, save your money and give it the ol’ college try again next year.

It’s weird that here, as January is poised to turn to February, there’s a prevalent feeling across baseball that the offseason is just beginning. Homes will need to be found not only for the Royals remaining free-agents, but also some of the bigger names who went on the market as a whole in December. The Royals have already begun drawing a line in the sand with the re-signing of Escobar—to put more obstacles in the way of young players before spring training begins would be a disservice not only to those young guys, but to the past as well. After all, would Hosmer, et al., have been so successful if they never got the chances necessary to prove themselves?

In the aftermath of the Wild Card game in 2014, who knew what to expect? It was all so new. Or to an older generation of fans, a really long time. When the postseason continued with the ALDS in Anaheim, it felt like the Royals were playing with house money. Maybe it was a “damn glad to be here” vibe. Or maybe the euphoria from 48 hours prior hadn’t completely ebbed.

Based on what happened over the next 12-plus months, it is easy to forget how the ALDS started. With Jason Vargas on the mound, Cole Calhoun swung at a first pitch fastball and drove it to just right of center field. From the moment the bat connected with the ball, it had the makings of a disaster. Penance for a Salvador Perez grounder down the third base line.

Except there was Lorenzo Cain.

It was an amazing catch in so many ways. From the distance Cain covered, to the timing of the jump, to doing it in the unfamiliarity of a ballpark where Cain had played center field only seven times prior over three seasons. And, most importantly, the necessity to get everything exactly right. Had Cain not made that catch, it’s not a stretch to imagine Calhoun could have opened the series with an inside the park home run. (You know how that can set the tone for a postseason series.) Cain was not going to let the Wild Card hangover get in the way.

It also gave us this:

Cain made a diving catch on a sinking liner an inning later. He had a chance at a hat trick of web gems, but was robbed on a rare defensive highlight reel-worthy catch by Nori Aoki (his first of two in that game).

Cain’s reaction to Aoki’s catch was priceless.

Of course, we can’t discuss Cain’s role on the Royals without the signature moment in Game Six of the 2015 ALCS. You know that Cain just scored from first base on an Eric Hosmer single when Jose Bautista lollypopped a throw to second base. You know that gave the Royals the margin they would need to close out the series three outs later.

That’s into right field… This ball is down. Going to third is Cain. Holding at first… Now Cain coming to the plate! ROYALS LEAD! He can fly!

What I will always, always remember from that moment was when Cain slid across the plate. How he leapt up in the air. How he elevated. He was propelled by jet fuel and lifted by 40,000 of the faithful. It was an experience. He went to first to home on a single to right field (not running on the pitch) in 10.2 seconds. That’s an otherworldly motor.

Of course, it wasn’t first time Cain had gone from first to home in a series-clinching game that month. The man is simply a marvel of a ballplayer.

Cain signed with the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday. He will get $80 million over five years. It’s a helluva payday for a complete player, especially given the market this winter. His contract is the largest in both years and total dollars (so far). Offensively, Cain closes out his Royals career at .289/.342/.421 in just over 3,000 plate appearances. He led the team in WARP in each of the last three seasons and was second in 2014 to Alex Gordon. He’s not on a lot of top 10 lists when it comes to all-time Royals offensive categories, but that’s irrelevant when assessing his importance to this franchise.

Cain arrived in Kansas City as part of the package for Zack Greinke, and the center fielder came to define these Royals. Eric Hosmer was the face of the franchise. Perez was the soul. But Cain was the motor. He was the ignitor. The guy who made damn near everything happen. The superior speed and defense with a good hit tool was part of it, for sure. But there’s some poetic justice in the best player during the Royals championship run coming over in a deal for the Royals best player during the barren years where losses were so plentiful the wins just didn’t matter all that much. Greinke wanted out of Kansas City because he didn’t see a way for the team to be competitive. Turns out, that trade opened the door to back to back Blue Octobers.

At the time, who knew what we would get? The mad dashes. The highlight reel catches. The lean backs. The limps. The reluctant foil to his hermanito, Salvador Perez.

Thank you, LoCain. It was perfect.

• Because of the slow offseason, the dismantling of the championship club hadn’t really happened yet, even though so many of the guys are no longer on the roster. Now, Lorenzo Cain is officially gone, having agreed to a five year deal for $80 million with his original club, the Milwaukee Brewers. I think it’s a great deal for all parties. Cain gets his money, though he was probably even worth more, but he definitely got his money. The Brewers picked up an elite defensive center fielder the same day they picked up another fantastic outfielder. And the Royals get a first round comp pick. If I’m to understand the collective bargaining agreement (and that’s no guarantee), I believe the Royals are now guaranteed to have the 32nd pick in the draft at worst. If Alex Cobb signs for more than $50 million with not the Rays, they’ll get the 31st pick, but then the Royals pick is next. It’ll be very difficult to see Cain in another uniform, but he accomplished everything he needed to in Royals blue, and he deserves all the praise and thank yous he’s been receiving. It was a lot of fun to watch him patrol center field since 2012, and I’m a little jealous of Brewers fans who now get to watch him every day.
• I still think the current market means the Royals should re-think their plan and maybe spend a little money, but as I’ve been saying all offseason, I really would be interested in seeing the Royals bring home Logan Morrison at the very least. Adding him and a center field option like Carlos Gomez or Jarrod Dyson wouldn’t put the Royals over the top, but it would certainly make them more watchable. Some of the reasons the Royals are interested in Hosmer should actually apply to Morrison in that he would take some pressure off young players as they make their way through the system and to the big leagues. With the market as it is and Morrison’s public desire to play for the Royals, I don’t think it’s crazy to think they can get the player who hit .246/.353/.516 in 2017 for a pretty affordable two or three year deal. And if the Royals really do believe in Samir Duenez or Nick Pratto in the not too distant future, Morrison could be the perfect stopgap. I get the idea that if you’re not going to make the playoffs, you might as well be horrible, but it’s also nice to see some competent baseball, so I’d be all for some incremental improvements that don’t impact the future beyond potential 2019 draft position.
• The Royals unveiled their 2018 promotional items and one that stuck out to me was a Whit Merrifield bobblehead on June 2. Aside from the sad reality that he’s primed to be one of the most marketable players on the team, I have to wonder if that says something about the possibility of him getting moved before the season. There have been a lot of rumors about his availability, but I feel like a bobblehead kind of tells us he isn’t going anywhere. Teams should never worry about things like this, but I have to wonder if they did field offers for him and found that the market wasn’t what they were looking for, so they know they’re going to keep him until at least mid-season. And that would make sense. I think a lot of people believed he was worth more in a trade than I thought was likely given what he is as a player. Maybe the Royals did too, so when they put him out there, the responses weren’t what they wanted. I don’t think the bobblehead is what is going to stop them from trading him, but them not trading him is why there’s a bobblehead. Of course, I’ve been wrong before, but I think there will be at least three more months of Whit as a Royal.
• I mentioned a couple center field options above, but that’s one area where I really hope the Royals do something to bring in a player who can at least be decent out there. The main options of Billy Burns, Paulo Orlando and Bubba Starling are just so bad that it’ll be truly painful to watch. But since 2018 isn’t likely to amount to much, the only option of those three who I think would be truly bad would be Billy Burns. My issue is that, while he’s fast, he’s not good defensively. If the Royals are going to rely on some young pitching this year, I’d much rather they don’t have guys losing outs because their center fielder in a huge park is subpar. At least with Orlando and Starling, you’ll get some good defense to help the pitching staff out. For my money, I’d go get a guy like Gomez or Dyson above or even a Cameron Maybin just to give some competence out there. Heck, even Peter Bourjos wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The guy did have a .160 ISO last year and is at .141 in his career, so he has at least a bit of pop. Maybe he could be flipped if he has a career year. Basically what I’m saying is that the Royals need to just say no to Billy Burns.

One such pitcher who may fall into that realm is Kumar Rocker, a pitcher who had an outstanding summer season and is suddenly on the fringe of consideration for a Top 10-15 pick. The size of Rocker at 6’5″, 250 lbs is what stands out immediately when you see him on the mound, an imposing figure already at 18 years old. While teams will see plenty of 6’3″ to 6’5″ and taller pitchers this year, they won’t see one filled out like Rocker at his age. This is one reason that he could see his stock drop some as one of the last prep pitchers to be drafted at that size was Tyler Kolek, the second overall selection of the 2014 draft. Since joining the Marlins, Kolek struggled at Low-A before encountering Tommy John surgery in 2016 and has yet to get past Low-A after nearly missing all the ’17 season. Those types of results and the similarity in size might play a factor in Rocker’s placement in the draft.

The Stuff

In terms of stuff, Rocker comes at hitters with a below 3/4 arm angle. Despite his size, Rocker does a great job of keeping his balance over his legs, preventing much leaking while keeping his motion methodical. From there, he explodes forward with a big leg push while opening up his front side. That explosion shows off in his chest flexing forward while his throwing arm lags behind before quickly catching up. Altogether, the legs are used well and the flexibility of Rocker is impressive considering his size. With him opening up early and leaving behind the arm, his control wavers showing off as below average with the fastball. His power from the legs and speed of his arm allow him to already to get to 98 mph, and I expect it to get up to 100 in the very near future. The pitch has plenty of life and late armside run making it a monster of a pitch against amateur competition. He shows moments where he can cut down and work the edges, but oftentimes he will overthrow and with the mistimed mechanics misses his spots.

In addition to the fastball, Rucker has already shown a decent changeup with armside fade. Showing the use of similar body control and pacing that he exhibited with the fastball, the changeup currently comes into the plate in the upper-80s to 90 mph. It has the chance to become his best secondary offering if he can increase the difference in velocity. That fade is there already and he has confidence in the pitch earlier in his career than most pitchers his age, as shown in some of the sequences that he has used on the summer showcase circuit. That commitment should only grow if he gains that separation in velocity while maintaining his pacing and fade. In addition to the fastball and changeup, he throws a mid-80s slider that shows off a quality horizontal break, but not much vertical break. He isn’t afraid to work the pitch in on the hands to tie up right-handed hitters or throw out of the zonme but like the fastball, it lingers in the top of the zone which would become a pro hitters dream.

Currently, the Royals don’t have a pitching prospect in the system with Rocker’s type of upside, and despite the slight mechanical changes needed, he has the stuff to become a front of the rotation starter should the control and command improve. Even if it doesn’t, his combination of athleticism and fastball leaves a decent upside to become a closer. A decent comparison in my mind is Michael Pineda in terms of athleticism, size, and upside. Should he get past the 10th pick, the Royals should have the strength in their bonus allotment to get his agent to push Rocker their way.

Draft Strategy

Flexing draft muscle is a strategy the Royals have a chance to employ should Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain sign elsewhere. The Royals could have north of $12 million in bonus dollars at that point, likely putting them in the top five of all draft pools allotted to teams. The Royals, with this type of collateral, could push a top 10 talent to them in the first round with the 18th overall pick, push another player that they like to one of their competitive balance picks, or spread the wealth to their slots throughout the draft. The type of strength that this allotment would allow could make huge changes to the farm system, the type of changes that could push them in the upper half of all farm systems.

To see information on the Royals draft last year, purchase the Royals Prospect Guide we created at Payhip or Amazon.

Featured photo Kumar Rocker via Perfect Game.

The Prospects (7) – Kyle Zimmer, Miguel Almonte, Josh Staumont, Eric Skoglund (LHP), Foster Griffin (LHP), Trevor Oaks and Andres Machado

Generally, the big name prospects get priority and one would think if these pitchers show that they’re healthy and pitch well in spring training, they will be part of the Omaha pitching staff. On a loaded Triple-A squad, Skoglund and Oaks are nearly 100% to earn starting rotation spots with the latter perhaps having a neck up on a 25-man Royals spot should Nate Karns need to be held back early in the season.

The Lock – Skoglund and Oaks both are virtual locks to be in Omaha without a trade that would free up spots for them in Kansas City.

Wild Card – With his sutures out, is Zimmer finally ready to make that next step to being ready to contribute at the major league level?

The Vets (7) – Sam Gaviglio, Jon Dziedzic (LHP), Seth Maness, Pedro Fernandez, Sam Selman, Eric Stout (LHP), and Mike Broadway

This group has pitched significant time at Triple-A last season or the year before and seem destined to return to Omaha if the roster lays out as expected. As veterans of this level, one wouldn’t think they would start at any other level considering the majority of them are veterans and/or achieved success in Omaha or elsewhere.

The Lock – Like Skoglund, reliever Eric Stout is a virtual certainty to be on the Storm Chasers roster should he not catch a break and make the Royals roster.

Wild Card – Nine different pitchers on this list are on the Royals 40 man roster including Gaviglio and Stout in this grouping but no one

In the mix (7) – Kevin Lenik, Tim Hill (LHP), Jake Newberry, Emilio Ogando (LHP), Glenn Sparkman, Scott Barlow and Richard Lovelady (LHP)

The pitchers among this group are prospects that have either appeared in Omaha or done enough at Double-A to show that they are worthy of the bounce to Triple-A.

The Lock – Two relievers in this group posted a sub-1 WHIP last year while striking out more than a hitter per inning, but Lenik gets the slight edge here due to his age and the fact that most of his dominant performance came at Triple-A last season.

Wild Card – I have written about Sparkman in my Prospect Guide as a pitcher who could have a breakout year and shove his way to the major leagues. A four-pitch pitcher, Sparkman will be over two years removed from his surgery and while the feel for the changeup should be back the comfort of going back to a full starting repertoire should be there as opposed to the relief role that he worked last season. The reality is he made just 12 appearances last season, so getting the feel for all the pitches and being able to give a starter repertoire and rest wasn’t able to happen last season.

As you can see, the pitching staff in Omaha will be full of options which in turn will push some players onto the roster at NW Arkansas or into other organizations altogether. Below isn’t the most likely pitching staff for the Chasers, but what I believe would be the best staff for the squad and pitching development for the Royals.

SP
Eric Skoglund (LHP)
Trevor Oaks
Glenn Sparkman
Foster Griffin (LH)
Andres Machado
RP
Sam Gaviglio
Jon Dziedzic (LHP)
Kyle Zimmer
Josh Staumont
Miguel Almonte
Richard Lovelady (LHP)
Eric Stout (LHP)
Kevin Lenik (Closer)

Dominican Trip

The Royals sent some of their young prospects over to the Dominican Republic this offseason to see the sites, visit the Royals Academy and experience the culture where some of their teammates come from. In addition, the young players went to Yordano Ventura’s graveside memorial. It was just another outstanding team building activity that Dayton and staff have created for his young team to create commonality between Latin players and the ones from the states. This can be valuable as not every team coming up will have players like Sal Perez or Eric Hosmer who are so eager to foster a bridge between teammates and cultures.  No matter how the Royals are performing on the field, it should be remembered that GMDM and staff continually do the correct things off of it. Check out some of the videos here on the Royals Dominican Youtube channel.

Free Agents 

The winter is grinding for major league free agents as we’ve almost reached February with many of the major products still on the board. While some have blamed Scott Boras and his methodical approach, that shouldn’t affect all the players. For example, the best value on the board in my eyes is Lorenzo Cain, non-Boras client, and his outstanding defense combined with this hitting ability. It’s mind-boggling to me that Dexter Fowler just last year got 5-82.5m from the Cardinals and teams aren’t falling all over themselves for Cain at a similar or reduced figure. Yes, there are age and injury issues, but they are the same ones Fowler brought to the table and he couldn’t play centerfield at nearly the ability that LoCain can. As more and more teams look to pass on free agency in an attempt to cut payroll, then there is major value adds to be had. Two players come to mind in Logan Morrison and Jarrod Dyson, both familiar with Kansas City they should be able to be added on or two-year deals. Even on a team that doesn’t look to making the playoffs, those types of players can show value, add butts in the seats and be traded for prospects later.

Follow me on Twitter @ClintScoles and checkout the ebook we create here.

Featured Photo Josh Staumont Wilmington Blue Rocks – Photo Jake Rose

• I hope you’re reading this early because the non-tender deadline for players is tonight (Friday, I mean duh, it’s Friday Notes) at 7pm central. Craig broke down the candidates, and while I generally agree with his assessment, I’m still not sure it’s worth it to even worry about Brandon Maurer. Yes, I’m particularly jaded about him because I don’t think I’ve ever enjoyed watching a Royals pitcher less than I’ve enjoyed watching him. That includes Kyle Davies and Round 2 of Lima Time. I know it’s “only” $4 million or so, as estimated by MLB Trade Rumors, but I also know that $4 million isn’t nothing and I just don’t trust him to be a competent big league reliever. The flip side of the argument is that the Royals aren’t likely to be especially good in 2018 and an extra $4 million to spend and the subtraction of Maurer wouldn’t change that. So, in that case, why not see if he can’t harness a 97 MPH fastball to put up a season like he did in 2015 when he posted a 3.00 ERA and 3.15 DRA? I get that. I really do. But man, I don’t see a lot of improvement happening with him. While FIP likes him a lot more than other indicators because he’s struck people out the last two years and mostly didn’t walk him, the quality of contact against him made for a nasty DRA, which has only been below league average once, and it was that magical (for him) 2015 season. I’m not going to be upset if they don’t non-tender him, but I’d vote for him to go.
• It’s kind of funny how the MLB offseason is a bit of a butterfly effect. For example, the Red Sox have been seen as the most likely landing spot for Eric Hosmer for a number of reasons. Now, they’re rumored to be in contact with the White Sox regarding Jose Abreu. Of course, if they get Abreu, the need for Hosmer is gone, which limits his market. Without the Red Sox (and Yankees) involved, his market in general becomes extremely difficult to predict. In another scenario, talks between the Giants and Marlins are moving forward regarding Giancarlo Stanton. If that came to fruition, it would likely take the Giants out of the market for Lorenzo Cain. Now, there are still a few teams who could have interest in Cain, so his market doesn’t exactly crater without the Giants involved, but given their need and history of paying older players, they seemed to be his best bet to come close to the contract he’s likely looking to receive. So far, no real rumors have derailed the market for Mike Moustakas, though the Angels did say they’re more worried about second base and have Luis Valbuena to man third base for them, so maybe that’s a story to watch in the future. The point is that at least one of these guys may end up falling into the Royals collective laps, which wouldn’t be great, I don’t think. I’ve talked a lot about the draft compensation they’ll receive for all of them, and I think that’s just too valuable to the franchise to give up to bring these guys back on the contracts they’ll want. But it’s still very interesting.
• I was reading through a recent Keith Law chat and someone asked if he saw a way the Royals could contend in 2018. He didn’t see it. Honestly, I don’t either, but if I squint, I think I know the formula. I talked a few weeks ago about how I think the combination of Logan Morrison at first and Hunter Dozier at third would be as valuable as Hosmer/Moose in 2018. So signing Morrison (or someone like him) is the first step. Then, Raul Mondesi needs to show his 2017 time in Triple-A was no fluke and he can hold down shortstop at the big league level competently. He’ll also need to stay healthy, which he’s had trouble doing over the course of a full season. Alex Gordon needs to bounce back and Jorge Bonifacio needs to continue to develop. They probably need to sign a guy like Jarrod Dyson or Austin Jackson to play center field and hope they don’t crater. Then in the rotation, they need health and some luck and also some depth signings. They also need to sign probably one legitimate big league reliever and get bounceback seasons from Kelvin Herrera and my favorite non-tender candidate, Brandon Maurer. But really, that’s it. They do all that, and they could easily maybe be fringe contenders. Yikes. Okay, maybe you have to do more than squint.
• It’s always fun to try to predict which relievers the Royals bring in to spring training who end up actually winning a spot on the club. Back in 2015, it was Ryan Madson defying all odds to get the opportunity. Chien-Ming Wang was the 2016 winner of the lottery, and I guess you could say Peter Moylan was that guy in 2017, even though he was a part of the 2016 team. It only takes one team to really screw this up and give a big league deal to one of the free agents, but there are a few guys who spring to mind for me as pitchers who get that NRI to spring training and make the club. John Axford has been largely terrible for awhile, but he was once good, so that’s a possibility. Casey Lawrence had a pretty terrible debut with the Mariners and Blue Jays, but he’s exhibited outstanding control in the minors and uses a sinker that has sort of worked at times. He might be worth a flyer. Maybe my favorite possibility here is Asher Wojciechowski, who was once a decent prospect and just hasn’t done anything. He’s seen his strikeout rate kick up a bit in the past couple seasons and has good enough control. Hey, you never know. The odds are the non-roster invitee who makes the team will be someone we haven’t thought of, but these three names could be on the Royals radar.

I’ve tried to avoid talking about the impending free agency loss of every recognizable Royal for two reasons.

1. It’s no fun to get a head start on pretending that Logan Morrison, Jarrod Dyson and Yunel Escobar manning positions that used to be owned by Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas will be an enjoyable experience for anyone.
2. Everyone has already said everything there is to say.

Everyone. Every Royals-related website, every free-agency tracking article, every tweet, everyone. A guy in my neighborhood wanted to know if Moustakas re-signing quickly might make Hosmer take a bit of a discount (LOL). Once Scott Boras’ house organ Jon Heyman started speculating about Moustakas and Hosmer both returning, the fanbase went Nero-fiddling-while-Rome-burns-crazy. I don’t blame anyone (except Heyman, obviously); it’s called the silly season for a reason.

And right now, it’s all we’ve got. Once the Atlanta Braves stopped batting their eyelashes in Dayton Moore’s general direction, the offseason consisted of waiting with bated breath to find out what the big three might do. Once the chips fall, we’ll know where we stand. If two of the trio are back, the Royals are likely planning on contending. If they’re all gone, then they might as well tear it all down and be really, really bad for a year or two. Returning one (the most likely scenario, in my opinion) means the franchise recognizes its faults, wants to keep a foundation together and tread water next year until they can figure out the pitching situation.

So I’ll summarize what I think will happen in one sentence: somebody among the Moustakas/Hosmer/Cain group is going to get Capital-P Paid by the Royals.

This is not a rumors website; we deal in hard facts around here. But I can’t shake the feeling that part of the reason Moore didn’t raise more of a stink about letting the Braves job go by without so much as an official interview (do grow up, of course they had some back-room, off-the-record discussions) is that David Glass not-so-subtly let him know that the purse strings will be loosened, allowing Moore to rain Benjamin’s down on at least (or most?) one of his homegrown talents.

Whoever that might be (head says Moustakas, heart says Hosmer, the parts of me that values being cost-effective say Cain), it’s going to touch off what one hopes will be a round of much-needed spending in the draft, on international players and player development. Although the new-fangled international cap places a limit on how much the Royals can spend there, they’ll likely add some supplemental draft picks (although, as this SI piece details, exactly what that looks like now is a matter of much debate) due to free-agency attrition, which is necessary because right now the farm system looks like Nicky Lopez, Michael Gigliotti, Nick Pratto and a bunch of late bloomers, injury question marks and fourth-starter types. A deep draft haul and some international free-agency luck would help along a rebuild.

There’s a better-than-decent chance that the Royals ceiling next year is “aggressively mediocre” (slap that on some branding materials, marketing). And if you want your argument for why none of the free-agent troika would stay, regardless of how much they may love the organization, it starts there. Money is great, and maybe it would keep Hosmer, Moustakas and/or Cain for the long haul. But they may not be interested in much of a rebuild, not with comparable money potentially coming from whatever suitor Boras’ binder turns up.

Christ. That was a lot more talk about these free-agents than I wanted. I want to enjoy the offseason; maybe not with a pennant or a World Series comfortably in the rearview mirror, but certainly without the threat of the core of the team getting uprooted and dispersed to different parts of the country. It wouldn’t be disappointing; it would signal a franchise reset, regardless of what lip-service others would pay to it. Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield are not Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, and I apologize if that news shakes you to your very fanboy core.

The Royals aren’t the Yankees or Dodgers—they can’t afford a monumental screw-up, because they can’t buy their way out of it. And next season’s payroll is already over $100 million thanks to Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy and other people who were far better five years ago than they are now. In fact, according to Spotrac’s payroll numbers, nearly 28 percent of the Royals payroll for already allocated for next season will go to Gordon, Kennedy and Travis Wood, who does not play for the Royals anymore and was terrible when he did. With that as background, I might be a little squeamish about getting in deep with any free-agent, homegrown or otherwise.

So the Royals remain in limbo, and in limbo they will stay until they can either manufacture a return to competitive October baseball (dubious, not out of the question pending signings and luck) or simply elect to move forward into a rebuild. It’s a true shame sports don’t offer a better word for “rebuild”; the ugly, negative connotation calls up the notion of tanking, of intentionally sabotaging competitive sport for the sake of the future—and, if we’re being honest, saving a GM’s job for another season or two, which shouldn’t be an issue given how clear Glass made it that he wanted GMDM around for the foreseeable future. It’s now GMDM’s job to shepherd this thing to whatever its conclusion is going to be.

The idea is that if the Royals signed Hosmer, they would also try to sign one of Mike Moustakas or Lorenzo Cain. And that makes a lot of sense because bringing one back still leaves plenty of holes, but without the payroll flexibility to make them a competitor. The way it’s mentioned to sign multiple guys who are about to hit free agency is to shed some payroll by moving guys like Ian Kennedy, Joakim Soria, Jason Hammel and/or Brandon Moss. Now that we have the stage set, I can talk about my concerns with this plan.

I think the Royals can absolutely fit Hosmer and even Moustakas into their 2018 budget. They could give Hosmer seven years and $147 million and Moustakas five years and $90 million and backload the deal to give them a combined $20 million in 2018 and then they can make more money when contracts start coming off the books after next season. And that would work if they can find enough inexpensive talent to supplement two contracts that are at $20 million or more once they start to rise. So that’s not really the issue here.

The problem is that signing Hosmer and one other (I’m just going to call it Moose for the rest of this because it’s easier than putting a qualifier on who else is signed, but just know it could be Cain) is that they’d be doing it with an eye on competing in 2018 and without necessarily knowing what future seasons could bring. So you add $20 million in payroll and to get there you trade off Soria, Hammel, Kennedy and Moss. That makes perfect sense in a vacuum. They can probably get about $17 or $18 million in savings from those deals because I think they’d have to eat a fair amount of money on all of them, though everyone but Kennedy is just on a one-year deal.

After trading all of them off, the issue that I see is that I’m not sure who is going to pitch for this team. Say what you want about Kennedy and Hammel’s seasons in 2017; neither was good. But even with that, they at least had a chance to be passable in any given start and took the ball just about every fifth day. The Royals don’t have anyone ready to go in their place. A rotation headed by Danny Duffy, Nate Karns and Jake Junis is probably not good enough to win, but if you add in a couple veterans who could have bounceback seasons and will at least give you a chance most nights, maybe you can get it done. If you trade Kennedy and Hammel, where do you turn in the rotation?

They’re not getting back any big league ready pitching for any of the veterans they’re trading, so that option is pretty much out. That means turning to free agency. Sure, they could absolutely trade 40 percent of their starting rotation and go out and sign a couple guys, but the flaw in this plan is that it both costs even more money that they’ve now tied up in Hosmer and Moustakas and they’re betting on the unknown. What happens if they can’t get any of their free agent targets? Then they’re running out every fourth and fifth day with Sam Gaviglio and Andres Machado. That doesn’t seem like a playoff team to me.

I suppose they could try to find bargains. They could sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Hector Santiago and hope for the best, but I’d rather take my chances with the two guys they have who have been good as recently as 2016. It’s not a perfect solution, but none of this is. If they had a pitcher ready to go in the system who might take some lumps but could be good, it would be a different story, but Josh Staumont’s stalled development along with the same story from Miguel Almonte and Kyle Zimmer have made it so the Royals have to go fishing for veterans. Even with the rotation as is, they need to find more starting pitching for depth purposes, so trading away two seems like a bold strategy.

Maybe I’m wrong and they can find three to five quality starting pitchers out there to help bolster their organizational depth at the top. I have my doubts about that. If it was that easy, there wouldn’t be so many teams so starving for starting pitching.

I haven’t even mentioned the bullpen without Soria. He certainly has his critics, but that bullpen isn’t in great shape right now, and it gets worse without him. I will say that his absence is more easily overcome than the starting rotation because relievers can be found (or made with failed starters), but there are worse things than having Soria available for the middle innings of games.

To me, if the Royals are indeed going to make a big play for Hosmer and Moustakas, the smart move is to do it without subtracting payroll. They could trade Moss if they wanted to, or maybe they could sell low on Jorge Soler to save a little money and create a roster spot, but rather than trading the pitchers, maybe supplement them as well to create that depth they so sorely need. Those relatively cheap free agent options like Jimenez, Santiago, Tyler Chatwood, etc. would be a lot better served for the Royals as depth pickups than need pickups. The payroll in 2018 would suffer a bit, but they could still probably come in at under the 2017 number with some creativity.

And after that, things open up. Only five players are under guaranteed contract in 2019. That drops to four in 2020 and just two in 2021. The additional $50 million or so received from the MLB Advanced Media deal with Disney could be applied to help out in the short term (though it’s certainly not required to go to payroll, just trying to help) and hopefully a new television deal that could be worth an additional $20 million to $40 million per season will help in the long term.

If the Royals are going to do this, they need to do it without robbing Peter to pay Paul. Rather, the best move is to pay them both and pay a few more people. I still think the truly smart move is to commit to a rebuild. Take the draft picks for the QO free agents, spend the international money they can spend again and they can rebuild the system pretty quickly. But if they want to bring back some World Series heroes, they need to at least give them a chance to be heroes again.

This week was pretty simple. In this episode, we say goodbye to the foursome of Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Eric Hosmer, sharing our memories of their play, key moments, and what they meant to the last era of Royals baseball.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

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