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Monday – 7:15 pm

Things have generally been going a bit better for Giolito, but he’s still inconsistent. Still, since the start of August, he’s gone 3-2 with a 4.66 ERA, which isn’t the real story. The story is that he’s struck out 43 in 38.2 innings, allowed just 30 hits and walked 14. So yes, he’s definitely been better and has flashed some of the promise that made him a top prospect and made him such an important piece in the return for Adam Eaton. As bad as he’s generally been, he’s really handled the Royals since coming to the White Sox. He’s 3-0 in five starts with a 2.01 ERA in 31.1 innings. He’s struck out just 17, so we’ll see if his improvement is for real in this one. My guess is he handles the Royals, but this young team has surprised some.

Junis is on one now and looking like the guy we were so excited about in spring training and earlier this year. With seven two-hit, shutout innings against the Indians (with no walks, I might add), he’s padded his post-DL stats some more now having gone 52.1 innings in nine starts with 49 hits allowed, 53 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA. The six unearned runs still loom, but even adding those in, he’s still at just a 3.78 RA, which is perfectly acceptable. I’ll say again what I’ve said a few times since his DL stint as well. With just three home runs allowed, it maybe does lend some credence to the idea that his back was a bigger problem than we originally thought. The White Sox haven’t been a good matchup for him. He’s faced them three times this year and gone 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA with six home runs allowed in 16.2 innings against them. Two of those times were in August and weren’t nearly as bad as the first time, but there’s still a bad track record this season.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Dylan Covey isn’t very good, which would be a nice pickup for the Royals offense. Of course I say that and Covey has been decent against the Royals this year at times. He throws a hard sinker that can be very good at times, but other times can be a trainwreck pitch. His changeup has been outstanding this season, holding opponents to a .088 average and .158 slugging percentage with 20 strikeouts on it, so that’s one to watch out for. And on a team of somewhat aggressive young hitters, it could be the difference between getting crushed and getting through six for him. Lefties have hit him much better and he’s fared much better at home than on the road. All that, to me, adds up to a potential big night for guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Adalberto Mondesi and maybe even Brian Goodwin.

There’s every chance in the world that this is the best Keller will ever be, but it’s really encouraging to watch him get hitters out in different ways all the time. He’s still not getting enough whiffs, but he’s done much better recently and does have 45 strikeouts in 57 innings since the break. No, that’s not enough, but it plays with all the ground balls he allows. And since the start of August, his swinging strike rate and 19.8 percent strikeout rate will work. I still would like to see some improvement through his last few starts to make me feel better about his prospects moving forward, but the results have just been so strong for a guy in his position. He struck out 14 in 11.1 innings against the White Sox in August, so maybe we’ll see another big strikeout game for him in this one.

Wednesday – 7:15 pm

A number of things have stopped Rodon from putting it all together, but among them are injuries, and now that he’s healthy this season, he’s been mostly very good. Still, it’s hard not to notice his strikeouts are way down, though so are his hits allowed. His slider is still his best pitch, and he’s allowed a .067 average on it with a .112 SLG in 89 at bats that have ended on it. That’s crazy. Of those 89, 50 have ended with a strikeout. Yikes! As good as he’s been this year, he’s probably due for some regression for a few reasons. One, he has been absolutely unreal with runners in scoring position, allowing a .145/.256/.237 line with runners in scoring position. The sample is small since he hasn’t thrown that many innings, but that seems likely to turn around. Another is that I’m not sure his four-seam fastball is as good as the numbers against it have been. He doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses on it, he doesn’t throw it for strikes nearly enough and it’s not an especially elite spin rate pitch or anything. I don’t know. It just seems like that’s a pitch that can get him in trouble and he’s somewhat lucky it hasn’t yet. The Royals have hit him decently in his career with 35 hits against him in 27.2 innings. Of course, they haven’t faced him since 2016, so the sample isn’t exactly current.

I’m not exactly excited about Skoglund’s return to the rotation because I still don’t believe in him, but I was also sort of disappointed when he got hurt because this is the year to evaluate. He posted about what you’d expect for a AAAA pitcher on a rehab assignment, and now it looks like he’ll get three or four starts before the end of the season to both see what he can do and prove he’s healthy heading into 2019. If you’re looking for a reason for hope, Skoglund’s best start came against the White Sox in April when he went seven innings and gave up one run and just two hits while striking out nine. That was the game that his curve was so outstanding, giving hope that maybe he had a plus pitch to work with. Maybe he’ll flash it again in this one.

The Royals are playing much better at home recently, but the White Sox have the Royals number. I’m going to say that the Royals play well this series, but end up winning just one of three and getting a couple steps closer to their fifth 100-loss season in franchise history.

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Friday

Good on James Shields to figure some things out and be a serviceable pitcher again. I’m not sure what happened to him when he went to San Diego, but the home run ball started plaguing him and hasn’t stopped until this season. He’s still walking too many batters, more than double the rate of his last year in Kansas City, but he’s limiting hits and doing everything you want from a back of the rotation starter, which is really what he is now and that has some value. Shields throws his fastball at 90 or so, his cutter at 86-87 and a curve, his patented changeup and the occasional sinker. He really has to mix it up to get results these days, but he’s finding a decent mix. His changeup is still top notch, holding opponents to a .219 average with it and .281 slugging percentage. His curve has been a big strikeout pitch for him, but it’s the one he can leave up and get it knocked around, so Royals should be on the lookout for some hangers. He’s been a completely different pitcher with the bases empty and with runners on and in scoring position. With them empty, opponents have a .574 OPS. When runners get on, that jumps to .909 and when runners are in scoring position, it’s .969, so, uh, get on base against him to succeed. That seems pretty basic, but it’s sound advice. A few Royals have done damage against Shields, but Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda are the ringleaders with Alcides Escobar right behind.

Keller had his first truly rough start his last time out against the Red Sox, giving up four runs on six hits in 4.2 innings. He danced around trouble early and then just couldn’t keep it up into the fifth, largely due to walking five hitters. He elicited just three swinging strikes in his 89 pitches, which seems to be not so ideal. In some ways, you don’t want to excuse young pitchers when facing good teams because they’ll have to beat good teams eventually, but in others, it was a rough start after two outstanding ones. This is a White Sox lineup he should be able to handle. Their only discernable skill offensively is that they hit some home runs and Keller has been elite at suppressing them. They strike out a ton and never walk, so I’ll be a lot more alarmed if he gets hit hard in this one than I was against the Red Sox.

Saturday

In some ways, Lopez has been the White Sox best starter with a really tidy ERA and fewer hits than innings pitched and less than a home run per nine innings. But he’s also struck out just 16.6 percent of hitters he’s faced and walked 10.4 percent. That’s not a very good ratio. He continues to be that guy you think should be at least striking out more hitters but he doesn’t. His fastball is big and it moves pretty well. His changeup looks like it might be a weapon someday. His slider is the only pitch he consistently dominates with as he’s struck out 32 batters with it and only allowed four extra base hits. If you’re looking for a reason why he may not be a reliever, don’t look at how he does the first time through the order vs. the second time. The first time, he allows a .221/.284/.407 line. The second time through that rockets to .316/.413/.471. It’s a little weird that when he’s the most dominant a third time through, but I’m guessing that’s because when he gets there and faces enough of the lineup, it’s because he’s on. He hasn’t faced anybody in baseball too often, but Moustakas has three homers against him in 13 at bats and he’s hot right now. Whit Merrifield is also 4 for 12 with a walk and an HBP against him.

Duffy is coming off a very impressive performance against the Twins. For the third straight game, he walked just two batters over six innings and he piled up double-digit swings and misses for the third time in his last four and the fourth time in his last six starts. He’s now 3-2 with a 3.07 ERA in his last nine starts, spanning 55.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and an 11 percent swing and miss rate. He’s pretty much been the guy he was throughout his career before the start of the season. He’s faced the White Sox twice and wasn’t especially good either time, but that was early in the season when he struggled. He’s actually been really good in Chicago in his career, going 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) over 52 innings with 44 strikeouts and just 13 walks. This particular lineup has been a bit of a problem for him this year, but I’m curious to see how he fares now that he’s pitching better.

Sunday

Giolito might honestly be the biggest disappointment in baseball given what he was supposed to be when he was drafted and what was expected of him coming into this season after a fantastic spring. He’s settled down a bit from earlier in the year, but he’s struck out 57 and walked 57 in 97 innings. That’s WAY too few strikeouts for a guy with his stuff and WAY too many walks for, well, anyone. Plus, he’s hit 11 batters, so he’s put 68 runners on base for free this year. Add in 94 hits allowed and he’s just working with runners on base constantly. I mentioned his stuff, and maybe it really just isn’t that good. His fastball is only averaging 92-93 and he mixes that with a sinker, changeup, slider and curve. Only the slider has been truly effective this year, limiting opponents to a .153 average and .306 SLG. He’s been an absolute disaster at home with an 8.65 ERA and 29 walks in 42.2 innings pitched. It’s not that he’s been considerably better on the road, but he’s just been so bad in Chicago. Even with all that, he’s still very good ahead in the count, allowing a .495 OPS, so get him when ahead (1.189 OPS) and even the Royals could put up some runs against him.

Bullpen day for a bad bullpen. Fun.

If we’re being honest, the Royals have a real shot to maybe even win this series. Neither team is good and bad teams playing a series can do some really weird things. For now, though, I’m predicting both teams get swept.

White Sox Vitals

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Thursday

I’m officially fascinated by Giolito. He’s now thrown a few games in the last three seasons and they all have been so different. His first time in the big leagues, he got hit hard, didn’t strike anyone out and walked too many. Then last year when he came to the White Sox, he was tough to hit, had control and at least had a few more strikeouts. And now this year, he’s walked 19 in 20 innings and has only struck out nine. He’s also hit four batters. The guy is an absolute mess. His fastball velocity remains down, averaging less than 92 MPH, but it’s still been somewhat effective, though he’s walked 17 hitters with it. His changeup has been sort of mauled in a limited sample with three doubles given up in seven at bats. He gave up three runs on four hits over six innings in his first start of the year against the Royals, but he walked four and struck out just one. It was a sign of things to come. His last start was brutal with nine runs allowed in two innings to go along with seven walks. Yeesh.

With it late enough in the season, DRA makes its debut on Baseball Prospectus for the year and in the series previews! I think there might be some leveling off it needs to do because I feel like 4.57 is a little high for him. He’s pitched as well as an ace, though. I don’t think he is that, but he’s been really good for almost a half-season of pitching now, going 9-2 with a 3.13 ERA over his last 89 innings dating back to last season with just 14 walks in that time. There’s likely some regression coming, and not just because a 2.03 ERA isn’t sustainable for hardly anyone but because he’s stranding runners at an incredible rate (90.4 percent). Even so, he looks the part of a force in a big league rotation and hasn’t disappointed after a great spring raised the hype on him considerably. This will be the first time in his career he faces the White Sox.

Friday

Lopez, also originally from the Nationals, has been almost as interesting as Giolito. The thought was that his big fastball and lacking secondary pitches might play better in the bullpen, but he had a very promising showing after coming up last year because he was able to improve on his control. He also struck out fewer hitters last year, but had a better strikeout to walk ratio in general. This year, he’s striking out almost a batter per inning, but he’s allowed 15 walks in his 24 innings. Of course, he’s only allowed 12 hits. All in all, it leads to some really solid numbers, but I’m not so sure it’s sustainable. Somehow he’s averaging six innings per start with all those walks and strikeouts and hasn’t been overly taxed, but I feel like that’s going to change at some point if the peripherals don’t. But the one thing he has going for him and always will is the fact that his stuff is so good that even when he’s behind in the count, he’s still in good shape because he’s allowed just a .174 average to hitters who had the advantage. Mike Moustakas has taken him deep a couple times and Whit Merrifield is 3 for 9 against him, so they’ve seen him well and are hitters to watch against him.

I officially don’t know what to make of Danny Duffy. His velocity, while better recently, is still down for the season. His command looks like rookie year Duffy. But he’s also been very successful at times. I still think he’s battling an injury, but I’ve been wrong before here. Even though his velocity is down for the year, it’s been better in his last couple starts with his four-seamer averaging 93.6 MPH in Toronto and 93.3 MPH in Detroit. He hasn’t even really been hit all that hard on the whole. It’s just that command has led to way too many walks and way too many grooved pitches, though it’s worth mentioning that he’s only allowed one home run since the Opening Day debacle against these very White Sox. I’d love to tell you that I know what we’re going to see from Duffy in this one, but I don’t think anyone, including Danny himself, knows. Jose Abreu and Yolmer Sanchez are the two White Sox who have hit him best, so watch out for them in this one.

Saturday – Game One

Fulmer is another young White Sox starter struggling with control. He’s thrown 18 innings and walked 10 in them, which is pretty consistent with the rate for his whole career. He’s not especially deceptive, only eliciting two swings and misses in his last start, though he somehow only allowed two runs in six innings in a win over the Mariners. And if we’re being fair, six of his 10 walks came in one start against the Rays early this season, so maybe he shouldn’t be looked at as having control issues. Fulmer mixes a 93-95 MPH fastball with a changeup, cutter and occasional curve. So far this season, hitters have been able to take the fastball deep and have hit .304 with a .478 SLG against that cutter, so those are the pitches to key on. He’s also been hit very hard by right-handed hitters to the tune of a.283/.358/.543 line. That reverse split is in line with his career numbers, so this is a game where Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Merrifield might have to carry the offense.

Prior to his last start, Skoglund was coming off the second best start of his career and I mentioned that it’s a problem that the second best start of his career was allowing five runs in five innings. Well move over that start because a new second sheriff is in town. He gave up just four runs in five innings in his last start, so at this rate, he’ll be a competent starter by mid-May. All jokes aside, I still don’t see it with Skoglund. He has middling stuff and average, at best, command. Which is weird because that was sort of his calling card in the minors. The guy has given up 11 hits per nine and has a WHIP of 1.568. There’s some underlying numbers that show maybe he isn’t quite this bad, but if he’s giving up that many base runners, he’s just not going to be successful. Skoglund did face the White Sox last year, allowing three runs on five hits in three innings with two walks.

Saturday – Game Two

We will update the White Sox starter with information when it becomes available.

It looks for all the world like Buchholz will make his Royals debut in this one after a couple solid starts in the minors to begin the season. He made two starts last year, pitching just 7.1 innings and allowing 16 hits and three walks. Yikes. But, that said, he isn’t that far removed from a really nice stretch of pitching in 2016, throwing 58.2 innings in his final 19 games with a 3.22 ERA and allowing just 47 hits in that time. Can he be a serviceable big league starter? I honestly don’t know and I honestly doubt it. If his velocity is up into the 90s, he could be successful, and maybe he can figure out how to pitch without velocity like many before him have, but like any reclamation project, it’s a longshot. But hey, they’ve come through before. He’s allowed home runs to Abreu and Anderson in his career, but that’s the only hit Abreu has off him in 11 career at bats.

Sunday

Remember when the Royals signed Volstad? I barely do. He’s somehow just 31 years old and is now a decade removed from his rookie year that showed so much promise. But he’s still kicking and making starts for a beleaguered White Sox rotation. The one thing he’s done well his whole career is avoiding the free pass, and he’s doing that well again this season, though he’s pretty much as hittable as he’s always been. He relies heavily on two pitches, a sinker and a curve, and both have plus potential. The sinker has done its job this season in his 12 innings of work, limiting opponents to just a .035 ISO and helping him to an insane 68.6 percent ground ball rate. He does throw a changeup, but It’s really only for show. He made his first start on Tuesday against the Mariners and threw just 66 pitches, which is only one fewer than he threw in his only minor league appearance this season, so he’s likely not stretched out to go more than 80 to 85 pitches, which the Royals should try to take advantage of.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee Kennedy makes this start after leaving his last start following a line drive off his foot, but he’s there for now. He was looking fairly sharp before getting hit with that ball and then giving up a monster home run to Travis Shaw. Injury or not, that’s two straight subpar starts for Kennedy after a fantastic start to the season, so there is cause for concern given his rough year last season. This’ll be a big start for him after pitching very well against the White Sox earlier this season in a game Brandon Maurer blew late. Like so many Royals pitchers, Abreu has been a thorn in his side with a .429/.455/.857 line against him in 22 plate appearances. Davidson has also homered against him as has Kevan Smith.

These are two bad teams, and while the White Sox won both games earlier this year, the Royals should have come away with one of the wins if not for Gas Can Maurer. I think this will be a really ugly series and if baseball could award wins at will, both teams might go 0-5, but I’m feeling optimistic here and think the Royals actually take three of five and feel pretty good about themselves following the series.

Note: All stats are from 2017.

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Thursday

It wasn’t that long ago that Shields was actually quite good. Now he’s quite bad. He’s had two straight seasons with an ERA above 5.00 and PECOTA projects a third straight for him. His once impeccable control is no longer, and the home run has hurt him even more than most. One of the biggest issues for him has been lefties. He allowed a .279/.375/.554 line to them last season, so the Royals spring additions should be helpful in this one. And if you’re looking for one player to hang your hat on, Mike Moustakas is 5 for 10 with a double and a home run against Shields in his career.

Duffy struggled through spring training and then was lifted early in his last start due to a shoulder issue. I don’t think anyone truly knows what to expect in spite of him and Ned Yost declaring he’s fine. If he’s healthy, he might put together his best full season, but health is the question with him, as it’s always been. It may or may not be worth noting that Duffy gave up 19 runs on 34 hits in 22 innings against the White Sox last season. Of all players,  Yolmer Sanchez has been the best against Duffy, hitting .400/.423/.560 in 27 plate appearances.

Saturday

Giolito debuted last season and the raw numbers look fantastic with that shiny ERA, but the peripherals indicated he wasn’t quite so good with that high DRA you see above. In spite of having really great stuff, he just hasn’t gotten the swings and misses you’d hope for from him. PECOTA projects big-time improvement in that area with more than a strikeout per inning, and he was outstanding in spring, so maybe the breakout is coming. The sample is small, but it interested me that Giolito was excellent the first time through the order and actually quite good the third time, but pretty rough the second time through. When that happens, it’s typically that a pitcher waits too long to adjust and introduce secondary pitches in an outing, which tells me his fastball can be had after they’ve seen it. He was great against the Royals in two starts last year, posting a 1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings.

There was nothing good about Kennedy’s season last year outside of how he pitched in April. The hope is that his hamstring injury really did hamper him all season, but even if that’s true, he’s now 33 and muscle issues don’t get better as you age typically. On the plus side, he had a really good spring, allowing an almost unfathomable zero home runs and striking out 23 in 18 innings. Like Duffy, Kennedy was brutal against the White Sox last year, giving up 19 runs on 26 hits in 20 innings. Better performances from Duffy and Kennedy against the White Sox very well could have been the difference between the second wild card and the reality of 2017.

Sunday

If you like stuff, Lopez is your guy. His fastball is really good at 94-96 mph, but unless he’s able to get his changeup to be an out pitch, he’s likely not going to be able to cut it as a starter. Last year, he gave up four home runs on it, even though he got plenty of swings and misses on it. That profile means he’ll probably be hot and cold this year, but when he’s hot, he’ll probably look like one of the better pitchers in the league. Control is a question with Lopez, and it was much better last year in his big league stint, but he struggled with it in the Cactus League, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can rediscover it out of Arizona. Last year against the Royals, he made three of his eight starts and struck out just seven in 18.1 innings while giving up 11 runs (just seven earned) on 21 hits, so the Royals saw him pretty well.

While there wasn’t much positive you could say about Kennedy’s 2017, I don’t think Hammel was quite so horrible. He provided innings at least, and he probably underpitched his peripherals a bit. The obvious issue was when the lineup turned over a third time. He allowed a .690 OPS the first time through, a .740 the second time and then a .931 the third time. I’m not sure how he plans on changing that, but either he’s going to need to or Ned Yost is going to need to have a much quicker hook with him. Hammel had a brutal spring, if you’re into that sort of thing, so I imagine the Royals have more hope than expectation for him this season. This game is supposed to be very cold, so maybe he’ll have a good start with hitting conditions so poor.

I personally think the White Sox are better than the Royals, and I think they’ll be better than the Royals in this series. My money is on the Royals losing two of three with their best shot on Opening Day against their former ace.