Blue Jays Vitals

Royals vs. Blue Jays

Offense

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Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:15 pm

Sean Reid-Foley’s first big start comes against the Royals, which has historically been bad news for the boys in blue. Reid-Foley was a top-100 prospect across the board prior to the 2017 season after being drafted in the second round in 2014. It was a rough year for him as a 21-year old in AA, but his second go-round was much better and he’s been very good in AAA. He throws hard, getting it into the upper-90s at times, but sitting a bit lower. When he’s on, his curve and slider both are big weapons and his delivery makes it so righties struggle against him when he’s throwing strikes. They’re hitting .178/.251/.248 against him, so that definitely corroborates that. Lefties didn’t exactly light him up in the minors, but they hit him much better, so the Royals would be well served to get their lefty-heavy lineup in there against him.

One of the few bright spots for the Royals this year gets the ball in this one. He had a mixed bag in his last start. He gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings, but he got more swings and misses than he had in many of his starts and generally pitched with trouble very well, which is something he’d struggled with at times in the past, not all that uncommon for a young pitcher. Keller faced the Blue Jays twice while the Royals were in Toronto and actually didn’t look great against them, but it was pretty early on in his big league career back in April. He gave up a run on four hits over two-thirds of an inning in two appearances.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Borucki is a 15^th round pick from 2012 in his first big league season and he’s done quite well on the surface. His FIP matches well with his ERA, but he’s also allowed six unearned runs in his 48 innings pitched, so things are a little shinier than they appear. He has a pretty limited repertoire with fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball averages about 92 and can really move when he’s on. One thing that is worth noting is that he really throws his slider for strikes more than I feel like is usual, so that’s probably part of the reason that righties have hit him better than lefties this season. A couple things indicate that he might be due for some regression. One is that his strand rate is a bit low at 69.7 percent, which isn’t that low, but he also has allowed a .233/.288/.283 line with runners in scoring position compared with .275/.315/.441 with nobody on. Something likely has to give there. He’s also given up a home run on just 1.9 percent of fly balls. He’s had a really nice start to his career, but I don’t think this will continue. It might against the Royals because they’re bad, but some team is going to be the one to knock him back to reality.

Speaking of regression, it’s bound to come for Fillmyer. A 21 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.1 innings isn’t exactly what dreams are made of. But you can’t take away what’s happened and what’s happened is he’s been really good when he throws his slider with a 33.3 percent whiff rate. His curve has also been a great weapon for him with a .182 average allowed and no extra base hits. The sample is small but good for him. If he doesn’t start to strike more batters out, this is going to come crashing down because he just doesn’t have good enough stuff to assume he’s going to keep getting weak contact, but Fillmyer is exactly what this season and next are for, so let’s find out what he is.

Wednesday – 7:15 pm

Finally the Royals get to face a veteran. Estrada has had two straight subpar seasons. This year, his strikeout rate has dropped back down to previous levels while he’s actually allowing some hits for the second straight year. In all likelihood, age is just catching up to him, but it’s disappointing to see a guy like him who seemed to defy the peripherals for so long. He’s really a fastball/changeup guy still, and even though the changeup isn’t bad, it’s not what it once was. The real issue for him has been his fastball, on which he’s allowed a .257 average with a slugging percentage of .535. For a pitch he throws about half the time, that’s a problem. He’s sort of the opposite of Borucki in that he’s been way better with the bases empty than with runners in scoring position and men on in general. And this probably isn’t too surprising given that he’s mostly a two-pitch pitcher, but he’s allowed a .344/.374/.720 line the third time through, so either the Blue Jays get him out or the Royals get a chance to actually score some late runs.

Burch Smith is scheduled to start this game for some reason. It’s likely because there aren’t really many other options, but at the same time, there have to be other options, right? Since his magical night against the Tigers when he picked up his first win in five years, he’s gone 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in three starts spanning 10.2 innings. He’s walked six, struck out and given up five home runs. In all honestly, a 13.50 ERA seems way lower than I would have guessed. I don’t really have much else to say other than sorry if you have tickets.

Thursday – 7:15 pm

The Royals released Gaviglio in spring training when they had a 40-man roster crunch, and he’s been a solid piece for the Blue Jays, though the magic has mostly run out. After throwing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in early June, he’s made 12 starts and gone 54.2 innings with a  6.09 ERA. He’s allowed 70 hits in that time, so he’s pretty much been the old Gaviglio with one exception – he’s striking hitters out for some reason. He’s also been outstanding at home and a complete disaster on the road with an ERA of 8.10 and a .304/.361/.500 line allowed. If you have to wait for the third time to get to Estrada, it only takes one time to get to Gaviglio. He goes from an OPS of .588 the first time through the order to .985 the second time through and .886 the third time. He amazingly hasn’t faced any current Royals, which I guess isn’t that surprising, but it surprised me anyway.

Sparkman gets to make his first big league start in place of the injured Danny Duffy in this one. When I saw him in spring training, I thought he had an opportunity to be an intriguing middle reliever with maybe eighth inning arm upside, but he was stretched out in his last outing in relief of Smith and pitched pretty well before he ran out of gas in his fifth inning of work. He ended up throwing 68 pitches, so he should probably be good for 75 or so in this one before the bullpen is needed, but it’ll be intriguing to see him get his shot after looking pretty solid (3.77 ERA in 14.1 innings) since his rough debut against the Red Sox.

Man, four games between two teams that aren’t really worried about 2018 seems like it could be a really rough four games of baseball. I’ll say the two teams split only because, well, does it really matter?

The Royals could very well surprise when looking for a starting pitcher, but I think they’ll focus on middle of the rotation arms to help lengthen the crew rather than go for the big name at the top. Part of the reason for that is they don’t have the prospect capital to go get one of those pitchers. I do think the system is better than many believe, but when competing with teams with great, deep systems, the Royals will get left in the dark.

Here are the starting pitchers I think they will be targeting in the next few weeks, listed alphabetically:

Trevor Cahill – The starter turned reliever turned starter again has had his injury issues and has only made nine starts this year, but he’s been very good with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.46 DRA. With a base salary of $1.75 million (and an assignment bonus of $250k with a trade), he’s probably the right price for the Royals. What I like about Cahill is that he can give you some starts and then likely slide into the bullpen as a solid piece there if they do make a playoff run. I don’t think he’d cost too much in terms of prospects either.

Andrew Cashner – He’s having a deceiving season. He’s been healthy, but he’s made 14 starts and averaged almost six innings per. The problem is that he’s struck out just 4.4 per nine and walked four per nine. That’s not a good combination. His 3.54 ERA comes with a 4.51 FIP and 5.73 DRA. I would stay as far away from Cashner as possible, but I like to be thorough here. I imagine the Rangers wouldn’t require much of a return on him, so if they’re looking for a guy just to take the ball every fifth day and avoid the young pitchers and/or Travis Wood, I guess he’d fit the bill.

Jhoulys Chacin – He’ s made 18 starts and averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.67 DRA. He’s a back of the rotation starter if there ever was one, but he gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits home runs reasonably well and can be reliable. Like Cahill, he’s super cheap with a salary of $1.75 million and no assignment or other bonus. A move for Chacin wouldn’t make the Royals the favorites or anything but it wouldn’t be bad.

Jesse Chavez – I promise there are guys on this list who aren’t just placeholders in a rotation, but the alphabet is what the alphabet is. Chavez is just another guy, but he’s someone else who has been successful in a relief role in the past, so he could be put there in the postseason in the Chris Young/Kris Medlen role if the Royals get there and be impactful. He’s not nearly as cheap as some of the others on this list with a base salary of $5.75 million and $3 million in incentives, so I see him as unlikely, but the Royals could offer a package that doesn’t part with much to get him.

Marco Estrada – As the Blue Jays inch closer to selling with every loss, I imagine Estrada will be a popular name. He’s having a terrible season with a 5.17 ERA and a 7.41 DRA, but he’d been so good the last two years that you trade for him hoping it’s just a weird blip. He’s struck out a ton of batters and has exhibited his typically fantastic control, but he’s gone from allowing less than seven hits per nine to allowing more than nine. His opponent’s TAv is consistent with the past three seasons (all .261 before this year’s .265), so it does seem that he’s dealing with some bad luck. You might get a really nice middle of the rotation piece with him.

Scott Feldman – Of all the mediocre pitchers on this list, Feldman might be my least favorite for the Royals to acquire, but at a base salary of $2.3 million and maybe another $600k or so in bonuses, he’s inexpensive and has been solid before. It’s probably not fair that I dislike him so much as a target because he has a 3.94 ERA and a 4.36 DRA after posting a 3.97 DRA and a 4.84 DRA mostly in relief last year. He wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects, you wouldn’t think, so this is a real possibility.

Jaime Garcia – Garcia hasn’t exactly been the picture of health throughout his career, but he’s made 16 starts this year and hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been good. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 5.05 DRA with not enough strikeouts and too many walks. He’s also not especially cheap. I’d pass here, but Jon Heyman listed him, so I will too, I guess.

Jesse Hahn – I’m not sure what it is about Hahn I like, but the A’s don’t share that with me, and with good reason. He’s posted a 5.30 ERA and 5.77 DRA this year after a 6.02 ERA and 6.82 DRA last season. I remember being a fan prior to the 2016 season and not really knowing where things went wrong. I’d take a shot on the potential that he could get back to where he was before with Eiland working with him. He’s limited home runs well for the most part in his career, so maybe they can fix him. Hahn would likely require a return that the Royals might not love to part with, but I think what he could be as a middle of the rotation starter would be worth the shot.

J.A. Happ – This is potentially a waste of space, but I can’t get it out of my head that the Blue Jays would be a good match for Jorge Soler, and I can’t stop thinking about Soler for Happ. After being fixed in Pittsburgh, he had a good showing in the 2016 AL Cy Young race, winning 20 games with a 3.18 ERA. He’s followed it up this season with a 3.54 ERA and 4.09 DRA. He’s not great, but he’s definitely a solid arm who could make a rotation better. I don’t even know if the Blue Jays would trade him, but if they can get some right-handed power for a few seasons in return, maybe.

Derek Holland – I lied about Feldman. Holland is my least favorite player on this list, but Heyman mentioned him too, so here he is. Dayton, if you’re reading this, don’t do it.

Tom Koehler – A quick glance at Koehler’s numbers and you might vomit, but this is kind of out of nowhere for him, and the Royals would have him for another season. Maybe it’s not worth it, but for a guy with an ERA of 8.00 and a DRA of 7.25, you might be able to get him for a song and see if you can get him back to his back of the rotation stuff.

Ivan Nova – I’m not sure Nova would even be available, especially not for a price the Royals should pay, but his insanely good control is appealing. He doesn’t strike many out, so I’d hesitate a bit with him, but he’s averaging 20 outs per start, and there’s a ton of value there even if it just gets you through the regular season. Of course, if you’re giving up what you’d likely give up, you’d hate to just get through the regular season with it.

Edinson Volquez – A reunion with Ed could be in the offing given what the Royals need. He’s had an okay season for Miami with a high point of a no-hitter earlier this year. The issue is he’s walked far too many batters this season, but he has a 4.19 ERA and a 3.65 DRA. The bigger issue is that he’s owed $13 million next season. The Marlins would have to eat some money on this deal, but at that point, the prospect haul might be too much for him. I don’t think it’s likely, but I imagine the Royals will at least call to find out if they can make it happen.

I should note that in the original version of this article, I had Dan Straily of the Marlins listed. He’s cost-controlled and team-controlled and good. If he were to become available, he’d be my top choice, but it seems as if the Marlins aren’t interested in dealing him, so he was removed from this list.

Stay tuned for position players and relievers the Royals could target over the next couple days.