Tigers Vitals

Royals vs. Tigers

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday – 6:10 pm

Boyd is having a nice season, getting a good chunk of strikeouts, showing similar to control to his almost solid 2016 season and limiting hits extremely well. He does a lot of his work with his slider, which has been truly outstanding this year. He’s recorded more than half his strikeouts with it and allowed a .165 average with a .263 SLG. It’s interestingly not quite as lethal against lefties, though still good, but he’s allowed a bit more power to same-siders off it. He’s put together this solid year while being surprisingly not great against runners in scoring position, allowing a .286/.333/.473 in those situations compared to .203/.279/.364 with the bases empty. He’s gone 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA against the Royals this year in four starts with just one home run allowed in 25 innings.

Lopez looks like he’s in line to make this start after leaving his last one with a chest contusion after running into Hunter Dozier. He couldn’t quite follow up his near perfect game, going just 4.1 innings before the injury and allowing three runs on nine hits, but he really fell apart after the pain started, so it’s probably not fair to box score scout. He threw four shutout innings to start, and if he has his curve working against the Tigers, that’s a team that hasn’t seen him before and a really bad lineup, so he has an opportunity to put up a fantastic start if it’s working for him. The one thing I’d like to see is the swinging strikes like he got against Baltimore when he had 14 in 99 pitches. This Tigers team seems like one he could absolutely dominate, so it might be fun.

Friday – 6:10 pm

It sure looked like a bounceback season for Liriano after his sixth start of the year when he shut down a terrible Royals team to bring his ERA down to 2.97, but things haven’t gone quite as well since. In his last 19 games (18 starts), he’s gone 2-9 with a 5.18 ERA in 88.2 innings and struck out 75 while walking a whopping 53. Basically this is who he is now, fast start or not. That said, he’s been decent in September, allowing just four earned runs in 18 innings, though he has allowed five unearned runs, so it’s not all roses for him. He hasn’t been too bad early in the games, giving up a .225/.324/.326 line the first time through the order with a 3.86 ERA in the first three innings. But the second time through is a disaster with an .855 OPS allowed and the third time through is slightly worse at .863. It’s a small sample, but Jorge Bonifacio is 3 for 5 with two doubles and a homer against Liriano. I’m guessing he’ll be in the lineup for this one.

I think most people are ready for Ian Kennedy to just be done, but he’s got two more years under contract and it’s worth mentioning that in his first two starts off the DL, he’s been quite good. He’s gone six in both starts and allowed just two earned runs total while striking out 10 and walking five. The biggest thing for him, though, is no home runs allowed. It’ll be his first start against a team other than the Twins since June 29^th, so maybe this is another real test for him. Kennedy, if healthy, is going to be in the rotation next season, so it’s in the Royals best interest for him to pitch well because that’s better than the alternative.

Saturday – 5:10 pm

Given how bad Zimmermann was last season, this year has to be considered some sort of success even if it hasn’t been that great. Of course, he matches Liriano’s 5.18 ERA in his last 11 starts since the All-Star break. He’s not striking hitters out and he’s giving up tons of long balls with 17 allowed in that time. Lefties have crushed him, which I’d think bodes well for Ryan O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi, especially considering he’s not only easy to hit, but he’s around the strike zone a lot. Given that the stuff isn’t especially good anymore, he’s been hit hard on the first pitch with a  .400 average allowed and an .833 SLG. That’s six homers in 61 plate appearances that ended there, which isn’t a great number to have. He’s been fine against the Royals, but he struggled in his last start against them in July, going five innings and giving up four runs on seven hits and two homers.

Junis had been so good for awhile since coming off the disabled list, but the home run ball has returned and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning in his last start against the Twins. He’s now allowed five homers in his last two starts, and even though one was an eight-inning outing, there’s a little reason for concern. Luckily, Junis has purchased the Tigers from the Ilitch family as he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in four starts against them, going 31 innings, allowing 21 hits and striking out 25 while walking just three. It’s been a pretty impressive display and he’ll get the opportunity to go 5-0 against them in this one.

Sunday – 12:10 pm

It wasn’t supposed to be like this for Norris. He finished so strong as a 23-year old in 2016 that it looked like he was about to really emerge as a solid starter for the Tigers for years to come. Now, his fastball velocity is down to 90-91 after averaging nearly 94 in that 2016 season. He’s been mostly a two-pitch pitcher this year, using that (with some horrible results) and a slider (with some much better results). My guess is that if the velocity doesn’t come back, he won’t either, but the Tigers need bodies, so here he is. He is still striking out a ton of hitters with 40 strikeouts in his 34.2 innings, but he’s been a bit homer prone and just generally not all that good. He did pitch reasonably well his last time out against the Twins and he held the Royals to one run over 4.2 innings back in April, so that’s a couple things to build on for him if he’s looking.

Keller picked up his first career hit and run scored in his last outing, but continued to impress on the mound even though it wasn’t a great start for him. Yes, he gave up four runs on 10 hits in six innings, but he struck out seven and got a ridiculous 19 swinging strikes in 109 pitches. His slider was the king in this one with 11 swings and misses out of 17 swings and 31 total thrown. That slider could be a huge difference maker for him as he tries to stick as a starter into next season and beyond. He hasn’t faced the Tigers as a starter, so it’ll be a test for him, but if his slider is working, the success of Junis against them should bode well for Keller.

Like I said at the top, I think the Royals are better, but they’ve got some road woes still and four-game series are notoriously hard to win, so I’ll go with a split here, but at this point, nothing would surprise me.

Tigers Vitals

Royals vs. Tigers

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Boyd has been mostly a bright spot for the Tigers in another rough season, posting big league career highs in innings pitched, wins, strikeouts and has, so far, been as difficult to hit as ever while being as stingy with home runs as ever. This is what the Tigers expected last season after he finished 2016 strong, but were disappointed with an uneven performance all year. This year, after a rough patch that started in June, he’s turned things around again and is now 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven starts. He’s not a true innings eater or anything, but his 40 to six strikeout to walk ratio in that time is truly fantastic. One issue many guys with that kind of control have is too many home runs because they’re in the strike zone, but he’s only allowed four in those 42.2 innings.  In his career, the early part of games has been a problem, but he’s done a nice job correcting that this year, and he’s oddly gotten better as games have progressed. But he has struggled with runners in scoring position, allowing a .293/.339/.495 average compared to .202/.282/.329. Base stealers are successful 88 percent of the time against him, so that’s a tactic the Royals should and likely will employ against him with their speed guys. The Royals have had their way with him in the past, but he’s 1-2 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against them this year with 13 strikeouts and just one walk in 19 innings. Whit Merrifield, Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez have all done well against him, so expect them all to be in there.

I continue to feel very good about the fact that it seems like the back issue was the cause of many of the issues that saw Junis struggle through his rough patch earlier this year. Some coming off the DL, he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.47 ERA in 36.1 innings, but there are some very encouraging peripherals, like his 40 strikeouts and just 12 walks in that time and, maybe most importantly, just two home runs allowed. Now, he’s also allowed more hits than innings and six unearned runs that give him an RA number of 4.95, but we can look past that in happiness over the home run, strikeout and walk numbers. This seems like a good opportunity for Junis to continue his strong pitching as he’s 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA against the Tigers this season in three starts with just one home run allowed. Against the rest of the league, he has a 5.28 ERA and 1.9 homers per nine, but the Tigers seem to be the cure for what ails him at all times.

Wednesday 1:15 pm

Fulmer made his first start off the disabled list on Friday against the White Sox and was fantastic. He went 4.2 innings and gave up just two hits and a walk with four strikeouts and had a nice swinging strike rate. Even with that, it’s just been a tough go this year in a lot of ways, though he’s still limited hits and home runs enough that if he can get the walk rate back down to 2016/2017 levels, he can be a really solid number two. We know the story with Fulmer having seen him in more than 11 percent of his big league starts. He throws a hard four-seamer and a hard sinker, both averaging above 96 MPH. He also has a changeup that can be nasty but has been hit hard and a slider that gets a ton of swings and misses, but he might actually throw it for a strike a little too often and that’s why it’s been tagged for a .477 SLG. He’s had a similar issue to Boyd with runners in scoring position, allowing a .302/.352/.510 line, but base stealers are just one for four against him, so they might want to stay put when they get to first base. Merrifield has also done quite well against him in 16 plate appearances, so it seems like he’s got a shot at a nice series.

Duffy’s first start off the DL was solid enough with just two runs allowed in five innings and seven strikeouts, but he only got five swings and misses out of 96 pitches, which is concerning. His velocity was also dipping noticeably in the fifth, so there’s definitely a little cause for concern there. Even with that, he has continued his season turnaround and is now 6-5 with a 3.79 ERA in his last 16 starts with fewer hits than innings pitched, just eight homers allowed in 97.1 innings and nearly a strikeout per inning. Still, too many walks for him, though he’s walked just four in his last three starts, so that’s something. Also of concern is the way he’s pitched against the Tigers this year in two starts, going 0-2 with an 11.32 ERA in 10.1 innings. That continues a trend of his career where he’s been very uneven against them with a 7-10 record and 4.63 ERA in 24 games (124.1 innings).

Two bad teams with nothing on the line? What could be better? I’ll say a split, but I’m guessing both teams get a win because the other team gave it away rather than because they played especially well.