Kansas City » Mike Fiers

Series Preview: Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, May 3-6

David Lesky — Thu, 03 May 2018 14:01:54 +0000

The Tigers are multiple games under .500, multiple games out of first place and aren’t very good. And they’re still overachieving to start this season. They were expected to occupy the basement of the American League Central with the Royals and White Sox, and so far haven’t really been that bad, which does kind of make some sense. I had said before the season that they had the potential (though not likely) to have the best pitcher in the division and the best hitter in the division, so they could surprise by being less terrible than expected. Both Miguel Cabrera and Michael Fulmer have been great, but Matt Boyd and Francisco Liriano stabilizing the starting staff has been huge while Jeimer Candelario, Nicholas Castellanos and Leonys Martin have made the offense better than many expected.

Tigers Vitals

Record	13-16, 2^nd Place, AL Central
Team TAv	.245
Team SP DRA	4.80
Team RP DRA	3.59
Team WARP Leader	Leonys Martin, 0.8
Record vs. Royals	3-3

Royals vs. Tigers

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Leonys Martin	.267	.325	.467	.270	0.8
Jeimer Candelario	.287	.364	.513	.292	0.3
Miguel Cabrera	.326	.413	.528	.298	0.6
Nicholas Castellanos	.297	.352	.441	.270	0.3
Victor Martinez	.222	.294	.344	.221	-0.3
JaCoby Jones	.280	.337	.467	.271	0.5
James McCann	.259	.301	.412	.255	0.4
Jose Iglesias	.210	.245	.300	.197	-0.2
Dixon Machado	.200	.257	.310	.199	-0.5

Pitching Matchups

Thursday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Mike Fiers	4	23.0	2	2	3.91	3.30	0.5
Eric Skoglund	4	21.2	1	2	6.23	9.34	-1.0

There once was a time when Fiers was a strikeout artist who seemed unhittable at times (and he does have a no-hitter to his credit). He used his high fastball to get a lot of fly balls back before balls were flying out of the yard at a record pace. He’s not that pitcher anymore. Okay, he still uses a high fastball, but he’s changed his game to coax more ground balls and a byproduct is the strikeouts have dropped significantly. It’s working for him so far, but I have to think there’ll be a correction soon if he keeps doing what he’s been doing. He’s allowing the highest percentage of barrels of the last four years and has an xSLG allowed of .508, which is nearly 50 points higher than what he’s allowed. He’s probably been a beneficiary of the cold weather around the country, so we might see a big-time regression from him soon. This year, the sample is obviously small, but he hasn’t made it past the sixth and has struggled mightily when facing a lineup the first time. He had a rough game against the Royals in Detroit the last time these two teams met, allowing four runs on 10 hits in just 5.1 innings and he didn’t record a strikeout. He got the win, but the Royals have seen him and hit him, which bodes well.

Skoglund is coming off what I actually think is the best start of his career. Yes, I believe it was even better than his debut against Detroit last season. He faced a White Sox team that had bludgeoned the Royals and gave up just a run on two hits over seven innings while striking out nine. He’s been steadily improving with each start, and if he improves on his last one, we might be looking at a no-hitter. Now, I still don’t believe he’s especially good, but the fact that he’s done it at least gives me some hope that he can do it again. His start prior to his last one was what is now his third best start of his career against this very Tigers team. He gave up four runs in five innings, so it wasn’t exactly one for the highlight reel, but maybe he can build on that. The Tigers offense has hit for next to no power against lefties this season, so Skoglund should work to take advantage of that.

Friday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Francisco Liriano	5	29.1	3	1	3.38	5.90	-0.2
Ian Kennedy	6	31.0	1	3	3.48	6.65	-0.5

Liriano has done a great job this year of limiting hits, which has helped him to overcome a very low strikeout rate and a too high walk rate. The problem is that, like Fiers, it doesn’t seem especially likely to continue given the fact that he’s giving up some quality contact. He’s allowed a .196 average and .353 slugging percentage, but his xBA of .278 and xSLG of .547 says that isn’t likely to last. He doesn’t throw a lot of first pitch strikes, doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses and is somehow still holding hitters down even when he’s behind in the count. Opponents are hitting just .212 with a .273 SLG when they’re ahead in the count, which doesn’t make much sense given his pitching profile. He’s allowed a .071 average with zero extra base hits with runners in scoring position, a situation he’s only been in for 16 plate appearances all year. It’s a nice story how well he’s pitched to date, but it isn’t likely to continue. He’s faced the Royals twice this year and has allowed four runs on six hits in 12 innings.

Kennedy came back from two subpar starts and a line drive off his foot to pitch well against the White Sox on Sunday, giving up two runs on five hits over five innings. He threw a lot of pitches, though, and labored through his final two innings, so that’s something to keep an eye on in this game. The concern for Kennedy as the weather warms up and hitters are a little more in sync is the fact that he hasn’t gotten many swings and misses this season with a rate of just eight percent. He was at nine percent last year and 10 percent the year before. It seems like it’s not that different, but it really is, especially with the kind of contact he’s allowed this year (average exit velocity of 90.5 MPH and 14.1 percent of batted balls barreled). Kennedy hasn’t faced the Tigers yet this year, but has gone 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 34.1 innings against them as a member of the Royals. Watch out for Miggy in this one. He’s a career .316/.435/.684 hitter against Kennedy in 23 plate appearances.

Saturday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Jordan Zimmermann	6	26.1	1	0	5.81	5.00	0.1
Jason Hammel	6	36.1	0	3	4.91	5.76	-0.2

At one point during the 2016 season, it looked like Zimmermann $110 million contract might be a bargain. That point has passed. After posting a 0.55 ERA in his first month with the Tigers, he’s gone 13-20 with a 6.26 ERA in 258.2 innings. He does have a pretty good strikeout to walk ratio of 2.5 in that time because even with all his struggles, his control has been okay. So that’s a nice thing to say. This year, he’s been absolutely mauled by righties with a .308 average allowed and .577 SLG, which could make for a nice day for Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield. He’s also been a completely different pitcher on the road than at home, with a 10.13 ERA in three starts covering just eight innings on the road compared to a 3.93 ERA in three starts covering 18.1 innings at home. This game is being played on the road for him, in case you’d forgotten. Even with his struggles, the Royals haven’t taken advantage, as he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings against Kansas City since joining the Tigers.

Hammel got hit and hit hard by Boston in his last outing. After starting the year allowing just one home run in 32 innings, he gave up two big ones, including a grand slam to the Red Sox and was unable to protect an early lead he was given. That doesn’t change the fact that he has put together a very nice bounceback season outside of his last start, but given how rough he had it last year, you have to wonder if he’ll regress to last season Hammel or keep up what he’d been doing. I said this before his start in Boston and I’ll say it again. His lack of strikeouts is concerning this year and is the reason why a team that has power concerns me against him. The Tigers have enough power to be dangerous, but he’s done okay enough against them with one rough start (that was plagued by a third time through the order barrage) and a fantastic nine inning start that the Royals somehow still didn’t win. Hopefully it’s more of the latter in this one.

Sunday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Matt Boyd	5	29.0	1	2	2.48	7.70	-0.8
Jakob Junis	6	38.1	3	2	3.29	6.22	-0.4

I liked Boyd to break out last year after a solid finish to his 2016 season, but he struggled and even spent some time in AAA to work out his issues. He dominated in Toledo and has had a nice start to his big league season, though his DRA indicates his strong start, like Liriano and Fiers before him, is not to be trusted. I have to say that I’m not really sure what’s not to like other than a low strikeout rate, which isn’t nothing, but he’s done a nice job of getting weak contact and looks the part of a solid big league starter. He’s been dominant against lefties, holding them to a ridiculous .095/.174/.095 line, albeit in just 23 plate appearances, but that’s not great news for Mike Moustakas or Lucas Duda. Boyd has had an interesting career against the Royals. He made his first start with the Tigers against them and was absolutely fantastic. Since then, things haven’t gone quite so well. In total, he’s made 10 starts against the Royals and has gone 2-5 with a 7.05 ERA. In 44.2 innings, he’s given up 64 hits. Moustakas and Perez have homers against him and Whit Merrifield has a .385/.467/.692 line in 15 plate appearances.

Junis didn’t have his best stuff his last time out, but was just the second visiting pitcher all season to throw a quality start at Fenway Park. That’s not nothing. And even without his best stuff, he gave up just two runs on seven hits while striking out five and walking one over six innings. He’s certainly been better this year, but he was plenty good and now he gets to face a Tigers team that he’s thrown 15 innings against this year and allowed just two runs on seven hits with 10 strikeouts and two walks. His weapon this year has been the sinker, allowing just a .231 average with it and a .385 slugging percentage. If he can have that working, along with his devastating slider, the Tigers will struggle against him again. Hitters have chased 31.5 percent of the time against him, and if he keeps that up, he’ll be just fine against a pretty hit or miss Tigers offense.

The Tigers record is much shinier, but I don’t think they’re any better than the Royals at this point in the season. Maybe that’s silly, but I really don’t. And just as the first six games of the season series have been split, so too will this series, I believe.

Series Preview: Royals at Detroit Tigers, April 20-22

David Lesky — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 15:00:01 +0000

The Royals get to take on one of their fellow basement dwellers this weekend in what’s become a four-game set due to the postponement from a couple weeks ago. Of course, the Royals will really have to do some winning this series in order to actually be on the same level as the Tigers, who have been about as bad as expected, but not as bad as the Royals. The Tigers have struggled to hit long balls like the Royals (with similar weather struggles), but their pitching has been mostly surprisingly good. I still wouldn’t trust their bullpen, but it’s worlds better than what the Royals have put out there, which is weird to say.

Tigers Vitals

Record	7-9, 3^rd Place, AL Central
Team TAv	.241
Team K%	20.3%
Team BB%	8.2%
Team WARP Leader	Nicholas Castellanos, 0.3
Record vs. Royals	1-1

Tigers vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

Tigers Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Leonys Martin	.295	.358	.475	.270	0.3
Jeimer Candelario	.284	.360	.537	.286	0.1
Miguel Cabrera	.283	.353	.467	.261	0.1
Nicholas Castellanos	.281	.352	.391	.263	0.2
Victor Martinez	.314	.368	.471	.282	0.2
James McCann	.196	.255	.283	.209	0.0
JaCoby Jones	.269	.387	.269	.263	0.1
Jose Iglesias	.173	.246	.288	.188	-0.2
Dixon Machado	.224	.274	.397	.213	0.00

Pitching Matchups

Friday – Game One

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	K%	BB%
Jason Hammel	3	16.1	0	1	3.86	16.4%	6.9%
Michael Fulmer	3	16.1	1	2	3.86	12.7%	7.0%

Fulmer has incredible stuff and has looked very much like an ace in the making throughout his brief career, but there’s always been something missing. And then with an injury that cost him his September, he’s come back this year and has continued a troubling trend of not missing enough bats with his swinging strike percentage dropping from his rookie year to last year and so far there’s been a significant drop this year. Some of that might be a little by design as he’s flipped from way more four-seamers to sinkers his rookie year to the reverse this season. His slider is still fantastic, but he’s not getting to two strike counts as much as in his rookie season. Even so, he’s still very good and could give a Royals team that’s been struggling to make contact at times recently. In the young season, the big issue for Fulmer has been lefties. They’re hitting .351/.385/.676 against him, so I imagine Ryan Goins will get a start in this one.

Hammel has actually some pretty similar numbers to Fulmer so far this year, but he’s getting more swings and misses. He struggled in his first start of the year, which was against the Tigers because he couldn’t handle the third time through the order, which is no surprise. His last two starts have been better when the lineup turns over a third time, allowing just a .200/.273/.200 line. Now, it’s two starts and 11 plate appearances, but it has to start somewhere. I still wouldn’t trust him a third time through the order, but I fear with the bullpen issues and the double header that Hammel will get a chance to last a lot longer than he should in this game. Hammel has been hit a bit by the Tigers, but not for a lot of extra bases, which is interesting. Still, Candelario and Cabrera both have had success against him, so they’re ones to watch.

Friday – Game Two

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	K%	BB%
Jakob Junis	3	18.2	2	1	1.93	21.9%	5.5%
Daniel Norris	2	6.1	0	1	7.11	30.0%	10.0%

Norris gets the spot start here after starting the year in the bullpen for the Tigers. His spot on the big league roster might depend on this game, which seems like it could go one of two ways for him. Either he relishes the chance and earns his spot or he implodes and the Royals can take advantage. Given the evidence, I’d say there’s a decent chance he can pitch poorly and still get good results due to facing the Royals, but you never know. After breaking out in 2016, I expected some big things from Norris last year, but he really struggled and now his role is tenuous at best. The odd thing about Norris is that he really struggled with lefties last year. The worrisome trend with Norris is that his fastball velocity is WAY down this year, averaging just 90-91 on it after averaging 93-94 last year. He’s throwing a ton of sliders to compensate, but it just doesn’t work well enough.

Junis was magical in his first two starts, but hit a wall against an excellent Angels team in his last start, falling prey to the home run ball. I think he has a good chance to bounce back against a subpar offense that he’s already pitched very well against. The key for Junis this year has been his slider. He’s allowed just four hits off it in 31 at bats that ended on it this year and has struck out 12 with it. Detroit hitters went just 1 for 12 against it with three strikeouts when they faced Junis in the opening week of the season, so expect that pitch to be his bread and butter in this one. The only hitter he’s really had trouble with has been Candelario who has three hits in five at bats against him. The Royals are really going to regret not getting him in the Wade Davis deal, I fear.

Saturday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	K%	BB%
Danny Duffy	4	21.0	0	2	3.86	25.6%	12.2%
Mike Fiers	2	11.2	1	1	3.86	20.4%	4.1%

I once really wanted the Royals to go after Fiers as I thought he was sort of a better version of Chris Young. Then home runs started flying out of the park at record rates and I was glad they didn’t sign him. As sort of a scrap heap type pickup, though, he’s had a nice first couple starts with the Tigers, showing good control and some swing and miss that he hasn’t had since his National League days with Milwaukee. He also appears to have altered his game a fair amount, at least through his two starts, getting a ton of ground balls so far this season. He doesn’t seem to be throwing different pitches or anything, so it’s probably just an anomaly, but for such a noted fly ball pitcher, it’s at least interesting. At least so far, getting to Fiers means getting to him early. He’s allowed a .308/.400/.615 line in his first 25 pitches. That bodes well for a Royals offense that has gotten going early in the past this season. Mike Moustakas is 4 for 8 in his career against him, and I have a feeling he has a big game against him in this one.

Duffy is coming off his best start by far, and it was very encouraging. He still walked too many batters, but he was getting strikeouts and his velocity was there all game long. If he can continue pitching like that, he’ll be just fine and his trade value will be just fine too. Of course, pitching on three days rest is an interesting test for a guy who has struggled with some injury issues. With some right-handed thunder in the Tigers lineup, his changeup will be especially important. So far this year, opponents are hitting .158 with a .368 slugging percentage against it. Surprisingly, his four-seam fastball has been almost as good (.167/.389), though he did allow two home runs on it. He’s had his issues with the Tigers the last couple years, going 4-2 but with a 5.87 ERA in 10 appearances against them. He did pitch quite well in Comerica Park last year, so hopefully he can repeat that in this one.

Sunday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	K%	BB%
Eric Skoglund	2	9.2	0	2	9.31	14.6%	6.3%
Francisco Liriano	3	17.2	2	1	2.55	20.0%	11.4%

Liriano has some really quality numbers considering how awful he was last season. Of course, some of it is a mirage as he’s still walked too many and isn’t quite striking out enough. I’m guessing he’s benefited quite a bit from the weather as well with the warmest first pitch coming in at a balmy 37°. I don’t expect his success to continue once hitting conditions begin to resemble baseball weather and the high looks like it’ll be in the 50s for this one. One thing he has done well that will probably continue to some extent is that he’s eaten up lefties, allowing just a .059/.158/.235 line to them in 19 plate appearances. When he was in the midst of revitalizing his career with the Pirates, he used his sinker to get a ton of ground balls, and while he still gets a decent amount, it’s not what it was before and I think that’ll start to hurt him once the ball starts flying a little more. I expect Salvador Perez will come off the DL at the start of the homestand, but he’s 4 for 10 with a double and a homer against Liriano, so maybe they’ll consider getting him off a little early.

If I was a betting man, I’d say this is Skoglund’s last start with Clay Buchholz approaching his opt out date and Skoglund being not so great. He did have his second best start of his career his last time out in Toronto. For what it’s worth, the second best start of his career meant five innings and five runs allowed, so take that for what it’s worth. The Tigers have struggled with lefties in general, but they’ve fared quite well against lefty starters, which is interesting. Skoglund did have his dazzling debut against the Tigers, so maybe he’ll muster up some old feelings, but at this point with him pitching, my greatest hope is that he gets lucky and gets through five with the Royals relatively close in the game. In trying to find a spot, any spot, where Skoglund excels, I found that he has allowed a .182/.250/.455 line with a man on first, so that’s kind of good at least.

These are two bad teams and while the Royals are playing some horrific baseball right now, the tide has to turn at some time. I’m going to be optimistic and say it starts to turn here and the Royals split the four-game set. It’ll be just in time for Perez to return and people can construct a narrative about him even though things probably would have turned even if he wasn’t back so quickly.