Eh. Not really. It’s more about subtle shifts in the teutonic plates before the big shakeup that’s looming on the horizion.

Still, in the early darkness of winter, it’s something to talk (and write) about. Onward.

The Royals Sign Mike Morin To A One Year Deal

As noted in this space last week, Morin, who was eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, was a tender decision for the Royals. While MLB Trade Rumors estimated a contract in the neighborhood of $700,000, he went with a split contract that calls for him to earn $750,000 in the majors and $250,000 in the minors. It’s speculation on my part, but the above estimate dollar amount may have been the carrot for the split contract stick.

The Royals Non-Tender Terrance Gore

Gore was out of options, which meant he would need to take up residence on the 25 man roster all summer, or the Royals would run the risk of losing him on a waiver claim. It also meant they would need to pay a major league salary to a player with one tool. Chalk this up to good business sense.

The club then immediately turned around and signed Gore to a minor league deal, keeping him in the organization. If somehow by the grace of the baseball gods, the Royals are in contention in the late summer, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gore and his speed back in Kansas City for a stretch run. The move meant the Royals 40 man roster was set at 37.

The Royals Sign Yefri del Rosario

Rosario was part of the group of 12 minor leaguers set free by Major League Baseball as punishment to the Atlanta Braves for violating the rules of their international signings. The deal cost the Royals $650,000 in International bonus money, which they will apply to next year’s pool. This year’s pool is capped at $300,000 per signing.

(Seriously, these international rules are so convoluted. The NBA salary cap is easier to understand.)

Del Rosario was ranked as the fourth best prospect of the group of 12. He has a live fastball that sits in the low to mid-90 mph range and can be dialed up to 97 on occasion. The curve plays, too. He made two appearances in the Dominican Summer league last year before moving to the Braves Gulf Coast League affiliate. Overall, he threw 37 innings, walked 14 and whiffed 36.

Oh, then there’s this.

Rosario had multiple offers and turned down more money to sign with KC. The reason? His baseball idol was Yordano Ventura and he wants to pitch in the same organization where his hero once pitched. https://t.co/VRy0EkdGSL

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) December 5, 2017

He turned 18 last September, so he’s a ways from the big leagues, but he immediately shot up the chart as everyone’s prospect to watch.

The Royals Sign Wily Peralta To A One Year Deal

Believe it or not, there are different kinds of depth. There’s depth, there’s deep depth and then there’s the abyss. Let’s see if we can figure where Peralta is on this scale.

Peralta’s best year came in 2014 when he nearly reached 200 innings for the Brewers. He finished that campaign with a 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9 and a 4.41 DRA. Mix it all together and he was worth 1.0 WARP. He’s declined in value in each succeeding year, bottoming out last summer when, after a brief exile to the bullpen, the Brewers DFA’d him. He cleared waivers and ended up with their Triple-A team where things didn’t go much better. In 16 innings he posted a 5.6 BB/9 and a similar 5.6 K/9.

The Royals are viewing him as a piece to the bullpen puzzle. Or maybe he’s rotation depth. The fastball averaged 95 mph and is complimented by a slider that can have some bite. Maybe if he junks the change and the curve (which he pretty much did when exiled to the pen last summer) and leans on the fastball/slider combo, he can figure something out. Color me skeptical on any kind of rotation impact.

Peralta will make $1.5 million next year with a club option for 2019. There are a couple things to unpack here about how the Royals view Peralta. One, there’s no mutual option, so the right-hander lacks any kind of leverage in the market because there is basically no deferral of money. As we know, the Royals use the lure of the mutual option as a way to spread money over the life of the contract. Two, the buyout on his $3 million option for 2019 is just $25,000. Basically, the Royals have very low expectations for Peralta sticking the entire year in Kansas City.

Let’s mark Peralta down as “deep depth.” Hey, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Mike Minor Bids Farewell

They said the market for Minor was robust and the left-hander would be one of the first pitchers off the market. They (whomever these strangers are) were correct. Reports on Monday had Minor signing with the Rangers. Terms have not yet been disclosed.

It was a helluva journey for Minor in Kansas City. Injured when signed, the Royals hoped he could build back to contribute in 2016. Setbacks prevented that from happening. But 2017 went just fine, thank you very much. He found some velocity on the fastball (touching 97 mph) and threw 77 innings over 65 appearances in his first big league action since 2014. With a robust 10.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, he finished with a 2.0 WARP, leading all relievers. By the end of the season, he was filling the closer role with aplomb.

Reports have Minor in the mix for the Rangers rotation. The past shoulder problems and the long road back to the majors would make him a risk on any kind of multiyear deal. The Royals wanted him back for sure, but it’s likely they weren’t able to match the length of the contract he landed from Texas.

Since teams are sitting around twiddling their collective free agent signing thumbs, we’re left to mark time by the mandated deadlines as they pertain to roster construction. Last week, it was adding players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. (Wheeeeeeeee!) This week, it’s the deadline to tender arbitration eligible players contracts for the 2018 season.

A brief refresher (because, otherwise, this would be a really short post) on what this means. Teams must tender contracts to their arbitration eligible players by Friday at 7 PM, or they become free agents. Tendering a contract doesn’t mean team and player have agreed on any kind of deal. It’s merely the team signaling the intent they are willing to reach an agreement with said player. They’ll have a few weeks to hash out terms of a contract. If they don’t, they’ll exchange numbers for the purpose of heading to arbitration which is where things get really fun.

We’re a way off from that marker, though. And despite the lack of movement on the free agent front, his deadline still has the ability to be slightly entertaining.

The Royals have four players eligible for arbitration. Of those, Kelvin Herrera will cost the most to keep on the roster for 2018. Herrera was a Super Two, so this is his fourth and final year of being eligible for arbitration. (Although he basically skipped a year by signing a two-year deal ahead of the 2015 season.)

The algorithm at MLB Trade Rumors predicts a salary of $8.3 million for Herrera. That’s some kind of coin for a guy who plies his trade from the bullpen, but if that’s the actual mark for the right-hander he still wouldn’t be the highest paid reliever on the club (Hello, Joakim Soria at $9 million.) Despite his struggles last season – a career-worst 4.25 DRA, 1.35 WHIP and 0.5 WARP – his peripherals weren’t all-time awful. His 8.5 SO/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were respectable enough for a reliever. He’s probably miscast as a closer (we all remember he was removed from that role at the beginning of September), but has some potential value as a late inning reliever. That all makes his estimate feel a bit high. Arbitration favors the counting stats and his innings pitched and strikeouts were career lows. His home runs allowed was tied for a career high. Then there was that whole thing about not being able to hold the closer role.

The question facing the Royals is can Herrera recover to provide a little over $8 million in value? The bet here is, if we value one WARP at somewhere between $8 and $8.5 million, he can. Herrera averaged around 1.9 WARP in the five seasons prior to the last one, so it’s not difficult to see him as a bounce back candidate. Health permitting and provided he finds a cure for the extreme gopherballitis he was fighting last summer.

This isn’t really a difficult decision. Herrera will be tendered.

Moving on, Brandon Maurer is next in line. He made $1.9 million last year in his first season of arbitration eligibility. As documented, he struggled prior to his arrival in Kansas City and then took his struggles to another level with the Royals. Overall, he was worth -0.6 WARP. Still, he has a 96 mph fastball and features league average swing and miss rates. If the Royals can fix the control issues that plagued him at the end of last year – and the spike in home run rate – he has some intriguing upside.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a contract in the neighborhood of $3.8 million. That’s a nice neighborhood. The upside and the relative low cost for a live bullpen arm make this an easy one as well. Maurer will be tendered.

Up next, we come to Nate Karns. You’ll remember Karns was acquired from Seattle for Jarrod Dyson. He was supposed to be a reliable back of the rotation starter, but those plans were derailed after only 45 innings when he hit the DL and ultimately underwent thoracic outlet surgery. Look, the Royals weren’t going to win the division with Karns in the rotation the entire year, so maybe if we squint hard enough we can find the silver lining that he should receive just a modest bump in pay as a first year arbitration eligible player. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a bump to $1.4 million for the starter.

The risk here, like with all pitchers, is injury. Aside from his season cut short last year, he’s topped just 150 innings once in a professional career that dates back to 2011. Still, the price is going to be right. Another slam dunk. Karns will be tendered.

Finally, we have reliever and local product Mike Morin, a late season waiver claim from the Angels. Morin found success a couple of years ago on the strength of a quality change-up. That pitch deserted him in 2016. Then, in 2017 his fastball and slider left him as well. And when you’re a reliever with three pitches that have gone missing, you’re left with… Nothing.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a modest bump for Morin to $700,000. They also listed him as the Royals lone non-tender candidate. That’s possible, but unless the Royals think there just isn’t any way Morin is a major league pitcher, it’s difficult to see them cutting him loose when you figure a reliever making the league minimum would cost around $150,000 less that what he stands to earn next season. At the very least, he seems worth a flier to bring to spring training to see if anything changed over the winter, or if Cal Eldred can help him rediscover the magic of the change. He’s not as definite as the previous three mentioned, but from here it looks like he gets tendered.

Maybe that wasn’t as exciting an exercise as I thought. Somebody light the damn stove.