With the first year of a rebuild in the books, and contention seemingly far in the future, it’s not a surprise the Royals list is thin and relatively uninspiring. All told, they have six arbitration eligible players on their roster. Odds are strong the club will non-tender most of this list.

The Royals have close to $67 million committed to five players for 2019, but are reportedly dicing payroll into the $85 to $90 million territory. That means every dollar counts. 

Brandon Maurer
2017 Salary – $2,950,000
2018 Estimate – $3,100,000

Maurer’s claim to fame is last winter he became the first player on Dayton Moore’s watch to go all the way to the arbitration hearing. He lost. Still, he pocketed a cool sum of cash in a season he provided an 8.9 K/9, a 7.2 BB/9 and a 2.0 HR/9 while posting a -0.5 WARP. Really, pick your metric. He stunk up any ballpark where he took to the mound.

He’s eligible for arbitration for the second time and is coming off the worst season of his career. In his best seasons, he’s a decent reliever. Averagish, if we can coin a term. In other words, he’s the kind of guy you sign in February as you’re in the final stages of piecing together a bullpen for a million or two and hope he can keep you in the game in the sixth inning. He’s not someone a rebuilding team needs to tender a contract to.

The guess here is he’s non-tendered and picked up by a mid-level team early in spring training.

Wily Peralta
2017 Salary – $1,500,000
2018 Estimate – $2,800,000

There’s always one. Peralta’s contract makes this an interesting conversation. He signed last year to a one year deal with a club option for $3 million with a low $25,000 buyout. Peralta entered last season with just under five years of service time which means the Royals could decline the option, pay the buyout and proceed through the arbitration process. In other words, could Peralta get more than the $3 million coming to him by entering arbitration?

MLB Trade Rumors takes the under. It’s not under by much, so is it worth it for the Royals to decline the option for a potential savings of around $200,000? Obviously, these are estimates so there’s no guarantee that Peralta would get the above amount. By the rate stats, Peralta wasn’t much better than Maurer: a 9.2 K/9, a 6.0 BB/9 and a 1.0 HR/9 along with a -0.5 WARP. But he saved 14 games for a team that lost 104 after spending almost half the season in the minors. Don’t forget in the arbitration process, counting stats like saves tip the scales rather disproportionately. He never blew a save, but pitched a clean inning in just four of his 14 opportunities.

The Royals of the Allard Baird era probably would’ve non-tendered Peralta to save money. The Moore era is decidedly different where the team generally does the right thing. We can debate whether or not bringing Peralta back at that amount is a good move, but there’s a very small chance the Royals will go this route to save a few dollars. They will pick up his option for 2019 at $3 million.

Jesse Hahn
2017 Salary – $574,000
2018 Estimate – $1,700,000

That’s quite a bump for a pitcher who threw only six innings in the minors last year. Hahn had surgery to repair his UCL sometime around early August with a timetable for his return estimated at around six months. If everything goes according to plan, he should be ready to go at the start of spring training. 

The Royals don’t have the luxury to wait to later in the rehab process to see how things are going. But health has always been a concern and he’s coming off unproven surgery for his injury. Plus, the most innings he’s ever thrown in a season is 115, back in 2014. He seems a candidate for a non-tender where the Royals negotiate a smaller contract with some incentives he could reach if healthy.

Nathan Karns
2017 Salary – $1,375,000
2018 Estimate – $1,375,000

All even for Karns who, like Hahn, had his season entirely short-circuited by injury. He had thoracic outlet surgery in July off 2017 and, after making a few appearances early in spring training, missed all of last year with an elbow injury. 

His stuff is tantalizing and his injury history is depressing. He’s another non-tender candidate who the Royals could bring back on a smaller deal as Karns needs to prove he’s healthy enough to get back on the field.

Cheslor Cuthbert
2017 Salary – $573,500
2018 Estimate – $1,100,000

We won’t blame you if you forgot about Cuthbert. He’s missed time over the last couple of seasons with foot, wrist and back issues. And when he’s been in the lineup… Ugh. Let’s just be kind to the infirm and say .215/.278/.313 over the last couple of seasons (and .252/.303/.378 in 830 career plate appearances) doesn’t get the job done. 

But the third base spot is up for grabs. Hunter Dozier didn’t play well enough to earn it for next year and there’s no one ready in the wings. The Royals could throw some money at Cuthbert and let him and Dozier battle it out. Plus, this estimate feels high given his injury history and lack of production. But when the estimate is already that low, we’re just quibbling over a couple thousand of dollars.

Brian Flynn
2017 Salary – $573,500
2018 Estimate – $1,000,000

Flynn is young, left-handed and has had decent success in the two seasons where he saw extended action out of the bullpen. At this price, he’s worth it to keep around for the bullpen depth. With a 5.6 K/9, a 4.2 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 last summer, he was the kind of reliever who you don’t necessarily want to give valuable innings to, but there’s still a place in a bullpen for someone like Flynn. 

The guess here is the Royals will tender him a contract for 2019.

Assuming the Royals tender Flynn and exercise the option on Peralta, that would push the 2019 payroll to around $71 million for seven players. If we’re to believe the Royals are serious about bringing payroll down to under $90 million, that leaves at most $19 million for the remaining 18 players. It’s certainly doable, but that just sets up the offseason to be one of the most boring winters in recent memory. 

Just a bit of housekeeping – this is the last series that will look at 2016 stats before we turn the calendar.

Angels Vitals (2016 Season)

Angels vs. Royals (2016 Season)

Offense

Pitching

Angels Projected Lineup

The Matchups (2016 Stats)

Friday

Ramirez hasn’t started a game since he was in Double-A in 2011, so this should be an interesting outing for him. He’s been a sinker/slider guy in the bullpen who also has a curve that he added this year in anticipation of maybe getting a shot to start. The sinker is a very hard one that comes in around 94-97 MPH while his slider is a hard one as well. He’s gotten a lot of grounders in his relief appearances this year and got a lot last season between the Reds and Angels, so that’s clearly his game. His control hasn’t been wonderful in the bullpen, so it doesn’t figure to perk up in the rotation. With that in mind, first pitch swinging isn’t a great idea because you want to work the count against him to get into the bullpen in the first game of a series relatively quickly. Plus, opponents only had a .761 OPS on the first pitch last season against him. It’s worth noting that the most pitches he’s ever thrown in a big league game is 43 and that came in 2013, so it could be a short start in this one for the righty.

Duffy has been very good in his first two starts, and while the strikeouts didn’t pile up last weekend in Houston, he got plenty of swings and misses with 16 on 87 pitches. I personally thought he was a little sharper on Opening Day in Minnesota, but he thinks differently, so maybe I’ll defer to him on this one. The Angels have adopted the Royals approach of being contact-driven, so this might be a little tougher outing for Duffy given his new-ish propensity for being around the strike zone. His changeup, as will often be the case, is the key with right-handed power up and down the Angels lineup.

Weather: 73°, Wind SSE 5-15 MPH (Gusts to 20 MPH), Mostly Sunny/Clear, 0% Precipitation

Saturday

This seems weird to say given that he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA in 2014, but Shoemaker really broke out last season in 27 starts. He made some changes following a rough outing against the Dodgers and went on a crazy run of pitching where he struck out 121 and walked 17 in his final 130.1 innings. He slowed down a bit toward the end of his year and missed the last month with a skull fracture after being hit in the head with a line drive. He’s really embraced the splitter, throwing it at about 85 and more than any of his other pitches. But he does have a four seam fastball, a sinker and a slider. so far this year, he’s given up the majority of his extra base hits on the splitter, but last year, he only allowed a .183 average and .276 slugging percentage against it. He doesn’t have a huge issue with a third time through the order, but I wonder if he waits to unleash other pitches a little too long because he tends to struggle a bit in the middle of games before turning it back on later. That’s something to watch against him.

Karns was brutally bad in relief during that opening series, but he had a nice outing against the Astros in Houston, going 5.2 innings and giving up just one run. He didn’t get as many swings and misses as I expected in that game, though, and he only notched three strikeouts because of it. This is a similar Angels teams to recent seasons and he hasn’t had a ton of success against them, but hopefully he can keep them in check and look more like the pitcher we saw in Surprise than the guy we saw in Minnesota and to some extent in Houston.

Weather: 76°, Wind SW 6-12 MPH, Mostly Cloudy, 40% Precipitation

Sunday

Skaggs is a guy who made his return to the big leagues following Tommy John surgery in Kansas City against a struggling Royals offense. Sound familiar? He went seven shutout innings and gave up just three hits and walked one while striking out five. Things didn’t go quite as well for him after that, but he did end his year with four straight starts allowing three runs or fewer. Of course, one only lasted 1.2 innings in which he threw 45 pitches. He throws a fastball, changeup and curve and it’s worth noting that his fastball velocity is pretty significantly down this year in the very early going. With that, it’s gotten hit hard to the tune of a .381 average and .714 slugging percentage. The curve has been the money pitch for him so far, but again, it’s very early. I don’t expect a ton of innings out of him, which could be a good thing if the Royals got Ramirez out in the series opener. That bullpen could be shot. Skaggs does seem to wear down as the game progresses with a 5.40 ERA in the fourth and a 7.71 ERA in the fifth last season.

Kennedy was a little shaky in Minnesota but had a very good start against the A’s in the home opener. Unfortunately, the Royals offense was in a slumber, so the two runs he allowed in six innings gave him a loss, but I’d take that every time out. What was encouraging was that his command was much better in the last outing, which is what limited him to just five innings in his first start of the year. He did face the Angels twice last year and struggled both times, so hopefully he can get that right.

Weather: 69°, Wind ENE 4-8 MPH, Mostly Sunny, 0% Precipitation

At some point, the dam has to break and the offense has to get going. You’d think anyway. Getting to face a reliever in a start could help the Royals empty out the Angels bullpen early, which could lead to big things, but it’s just hard to say at this point. I also think they struggle with Skaggs as they have in the past. I really want to say the Royals win two of three, but until they actually find their path this season, it’s going to be very difficult for me to predict a series win against basically anyone. They’ll get on track at some point, but I’m going to say they win one of three and hope this is the series they do get going and I’m off by about two wins.

Astros Vitals (2016 Season)

Astros vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

 Astros Projected Lineup (2016 Stats)

The Matchups (2016 Stats)

Friday

Fiers doesn’t throw hard, but he gets swings and misses with a high fastball that gets some quality spin on it. Of course, in Kansas City, we all know how quickly that can go bad *cough* Chris Young *cough*. Fiers mixes a fastball that sits around 90 mph with a changeup, slider, curve and cutter. When he’s good, he’s really good. When he’s bad, he’s really bad. Without possessing great stuff, he’s at a big time disadvantage later in games after hitters have seen him, and the numbers do show that. He allows a .287/.333/.520 line the second time through the order and a .267/.337/.487 line the third time. That’s an OPS increase of about 100 points from the first time through. The home runs spike big time after hitters have seen him once too. It may not be a huge issue for him in this one as first starts are often a bit shorter, but it’s at least worth noting.

I personally would have preferred keeping Vargas out of this park as I think the Astros right-handed bats will feast on him, but if his changeup is as good as it looked in Arizona, it won’t matter. Still, I fear for the worst in this one and wonder if we don’t see an extended outing from, well, someone if Vargas gets knocked around early.

Weather: 78°, mostly sunny/clear, 0% precipitation

Saturday

I mentioned a down season for Keuchel last year, but boy did he look good in his first start with seven scoreless innings. He works with that heavy, heavy sinker that he throws around 89-91 mph about half the time. Add a devastating slider when he’s on, along with a solid cutter and it’s easy to see how he won the Cy Young in 2015. Last year, the cutter was a problem, with a .315 average and .630 slugging percentage against it. With Keuchel, the strategy is a little different than Fiers. If you’re going to get him, you’re going to get him early. He allowed 17 runs in the first last year before settling down. He also allowed 24 in the fifth inning, so if we’re going to completely go by splits, maybe that’s a weird window, but that seems more like a fluke than a first inning barrage. Lorenzo Cain has hit a couple homers off him, which makes sense. I feel like he pitches right into Cain’s swing path.

Like Keuchel, Duffy had a good first start of the year on Monday. I don’t love lefties in general against this lineup and Duffy has had some home run issues with his newfound control, but I like this matchup a lot better than Vargas. Now that I’ve said that, Vargas will probably go seven scoreless and Duffy will get lit up, but what can you do? The Astros as a team were pretty solid against changeups, so he’s going to need more than that against this team to pitch well, so hopefully his slider is on because that’s the pitch these guys seem to struggle with more than anything.

Weather: 77°, mostly sunny/clear, 0% precipitation

Sunday

McCullers is such an interesting pitcher because he is so reliant on a curve in an era where sliders seem to be king. Last season, he threw it nearly half the time and his fastball just under 42 percent of the time. The fastball is good. The curve is good. In his first start, he was very good, but relied heavily on curves. The good news for him is that his fastball velocity was back up a tick. This is a big year for McCullers after his fastball got pounded last season with a .434 average against it and .606 slugging percentage. That seems to be right up the Royals alley offensively if he can’t locate it. If things are similar this year to last year, the story on McCullers was get him early or you won’t get him at all. He allowed 29 runs last season in an injury shortened season and 23 of them were in the first two plate appearances against him and 22 in the first three innings.

Karns already has a pretty big blemish on his 2017 season with a terrible relief performance against the Twins on Wednesday. On the bright side, things can likely only go up from there, though Buddy Bell might argue with me on that. If Karns is the guy we all saw in spring training with location and movement, he’ll be fine against any lineup in any park. If he’s struggling with command again, though, this one could get out of hand quickly.

Weather: 80°, mostly sunny, 0% precipitation

I think the Astros are one of the better teams in the American League. I think the Royals are much better than they showed in Minneapolis but are a step below Houston. I’m not a huge fan of most of the Royals staff in that ballpark, so I’m not sure there’s necessarily a better setup for them other than not having Vargas pitch. My guess is the Royals eek out one win before they finally get to come home and play in front of the Kansas City faithful for the first time since last season.

This week, we looked at the first week of spring training and the early signs regarding some spring training position battles.

There aren’t many, but second base has a trio (a quartet!?) of players who could see time there in 2017. We discuss Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield, and – hey, it could happen – Cheslor Cuthbert.

We also talked about the fifth starter spot. It seems like it’s Nathan Karns’s job to lose, but Travis Wood has a shot, as does Chris Young, and all three have good numbers after one appearance each.

We also covered Kyle Zimmer and what expectations should be going forward. He throws on Saturday and we’re very interested to see how he does.

And finally, we helped to spread the legend of Peter O’Brien, who felled a thousand trees with one swing, rescued the princess, and ran the villains out of town.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

So after a pretty quiet offseason, the Royals started to make a few moves. In the last week, the big move was trading longtime Royal Jarrod Dyson to Seattle for right-handed pitcher Nathan Karns.

As a fan, it’s a tough move because Dyson has been in the organization so long and has had so many big moments as a Royal, but deep down, it makes some sense, as the Royals trade from surplus to fill a need.

We looked at where the Royals are now with Karns in the fold, how Dyson’s production may be covered, and how the Royals may approach their pitching staff now with a (likely) set five-man rotation.

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).