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Friday – 7:10 pm

After two years of big-time decline, Shields may have put himself on a track to find himself a big league deal next season if he so chooses. He’s not good, but he’s basically been what people thought Jason Hammel would be for the Royals, doing enough to keep the team in games and giving some pretty valuable innings to a rotation. He still walks too many, but with the home runs down, he’s definitely a usable part of a rotation. He’s not the guy a team will trade multiple top prospects for anymore, but that’s okay. He’s 36 now. A big key against Shields is simply to find a way on base. With the bases empty, he’s allowed a .613 OPS with 79 strikeouts and 29 walks in 417 plate appearances. With runners on, that jumps to a .909 OPS and 43 strikeouts with 31 walks in 253 plate appearances. Something about the stretch makes his command disappear and lets the opposition get it started against him. Ryan O’Hearn and Brett Phillips both homered against him earlier this month and Lucas Duda has a 1.021 career OPS against him in 18 plate appearances, so they should all definitely be in the lineup.

Junis has provided quite the rollercoaster this season for me and Royals fans in general. Early in the year, it looked like he might actually get to his ceiling of a number three starter. He was striking out guys, limiting walks and giving quality innings. Then from May 28^th to July 2^nd, he went 0-7 with a 7.59 ERA and allowed 13 homers in 40.1 innings and it was fair to question if he was even going to be a big leaguer long term. Then he went on the DL with a back injury and since then, he’s been much better. In five starts, he’s thrown 25.1 innings with 30 strikeouts and nine walks. He’s throwing too many pitches, but he’s only allowed two home runs in that time. Now, he has allowed four unearned runs, so the ERA is a little shinier than he’s actually pitched, but the strikeouts and lack of homers have me confident again. Junis was a little shaky against the White Sox earlier this month in a game that he had a 10-1 lead, so I’m anxious to see how he fares in this one.

Saturday – 7:10 pm

There was a narrative for a bit that Covey had figured a lot of things out and had a chance to be a solid big league pitcher. And yet, here he sits with numbers pretty similar to last season when he was a disaster as a Rule 5 pick for the White Sox. He’s far too hittable and doesn’t strike out nearly enough while walking way too many. The big difference this season is that he’s giving up a home run every nine innings or so compared to 2.6 per nine. He threw six shutout innings against Boston on June 8^th to lower his ERA to 2.22. Since then? He’s made 11 starts and gone 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA with 31 strikeouts and 25 walks in 53.1 innings. He’s just not good. The stuff looks better than it is, which gives him the opportunity to have a good game here and there, but yeah, he’s not a big leaguer, not at this point anyway.

Keller, on the other hand, has shown he is definitely a big leaguer, though there are still questions about his role in spite of his 3.82 ERA over 73 innings as a starter. On one hand, I have a hard time seeing a guy with just 49 strikeouts and 33 walks in that time succeeding. On the other hand, there are other ways to find success, even in a world where strikeouts are up everywhere. He just doesn’t get hit hard at all with his hard hit rate below the league average and his barrels allowed a fair amount below the league average. All those ground balls in an era where teams have a pretty good idea where their opponents are going to hit them have to help him. I believe the stuff is there to increase swings and misses, so we’ll see how he develops. And hey, pitching against the White Sox doesn’t hurt. He got 13 swings and misses against them earlier this month after they had lit him up in his previous start in Chicago.

Sunday – 1:10 pm

I’ve said this before, but Lopez doesn’t make sense. A guy with his stuff shouldn’t have a strikeout rate of 16.1 percent. He walks too many too, which is sort of a common issue among White Sox starters, I guess. Unlike Keller, Lopez doesn’t get many grounders, allows more hard contact than league average and more barrels than the league average. It’s not a great combination. I think I said this the last time these two teams matched up, but he’d probably do well to throw his fastball less even though it feels like it should be a dominant pitch. His slider and changeup are both producing a ton of swings and misses while his four-seamer just doesn’t get the whiffs and he can’t control it very well. He’s performed pretty well against the Royals in his career with a 3.55 ERA in six starts, though six of the 22 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. Somehow (okay not somehow, it’s the Royals), he’s walked just five in 39.1 innings against KC.

Fillmyer had a tough go of it against the Blue Jays his last time out, walking five and striking out just three in five innings. It was a tight zone, and that doesn’t bode well for him at all, but it continued a trend of some similar issues that Keller has. The difference, and maybe this is just because he hasn’t had the opportunity to do it, is that Keller has had a few outings where he’s gotten the whiffs and Fillmyer just hasn’t yet. He does limit hard contact like Keller does and while he doesn’t get nearly as many ground balls, he does get his fair share. Basically, it comes down to whether or not his slider is working. He’s a bit of a combination of the previous two pitchers in this series in that his slider is his best pitch (like Junis) and he has a similar game plan to Keller. If those two succeed before him, he has a chance to follow suit. But his slider has to be working because if it’s not, the White Sox have enough power and enough patience to really make him pay.

Like the Blue Jays series, I’m expecting some uninspired baseball from both teams, but even with the way this season has gone, I still think the Royals are better than the White Sox and will take two of three.

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Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday – 7:10 pm

Duffy got hit around pretty good in his last start against the Tigers, ending a really nice three-start stretch, but there were some encouraging points. For one, he only walked two batters, which was nice as he’s been much better with his control over his last few starts. Of course, on the flip side, he generated very few swings and misses for the second straight start. This is an opportunity to get right against an offense he performed exceptionally well against just a couple weeks ago in this very park. On July 14^th, he went seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts and 16 swings and misses against the White Sox. Even with the rough start, he’s 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA in his last 12 starts, spanning 75.1 innings with just 64 hits and six home runs allowed. It’s been a nice run and hopefully a team he’s had recent success against will allow him to continue it.It’s been a semi-resurgence for Shields this season, and even though the ERA is just average and the FIP is as well, DRA seems to like him a bit when factoring in more factors than FIP provides, so that’s something, I suppose. He’s still striking out too few and walking too many, but it’s better than in years past and he’s not getting killed by the home run like he had the last two years. Honestly, he could be a reasonable back of the rotation guy for a team just needing innings, so maybe he doesn’t even get to this start. His changeup is still good, and his curve has been a really nice pitch for getting whiffs with opponents coming up empty on one out of every three this season. The four-seamer, though, that’s a problem with opponents hitting .271 against it with a .542 slugging percentage and a very low whiff rate. A team of now young hitters, I imagine Shields will attack them off speed and see what happens. Lucas Duda has two homers in 15 plate appearances against Shields, so if he’s not traded by the time you read this or steps into the box, he’s a threat. And Alcides Escobar has three extra base hits against him in 20 plate appearances, so you know he’s playing.

Wednesday – 7:10 pm

After a debut that only a mother could love, and maybe not even her, Dylan Covey was thought to have maybe figured something out. After going seven solid innings against Cleveland in mid-June, his ERA was 2.9 and he was doing a nice job of striking guys out and limiting walks. He had a little help with the ERA from some errors, but he looked solid. Since then, he’s made seven starts, going 33 innings and allowing 41 hits, walking 19 and striking out just 17 with eight home runs allowed. And that includes a game where he threw 8.1 shutout innings against Seattle. That’s really quite amazing when you think about it. So who is he? I’m inclined to think he’s just not good, but I guess we don’t know for sure yet. He pitched against the Royals earlier this year in his first appearance of the season and gave up four runs on seven hits with three walks in six innings in a loss, so even a bad team like the Royals has done well against him. One thing to note is that he’s mostly ditched his four-seamer and has gone all to sinkers, all while upping his velocity on it, so maybe there is something to his resurgence for a few starts earlier this year. Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon and Jorge Bonifacio have all hit him well in a limited sample.

Junis will be making his third start back from the disabled list and the training wheels appear to be off after throwing 100 pitches against the Yankees on Thursday. He wasn’t good but did only allow one home run, which means the under definitely would have won that bet. Since that scorching start to the year that might have been a bit Tigers-fueled, Junis has been unimpressive, and it all kind of started against the White Sox in April when he gave up five home runs to them. As usual with him, it all depends on his slider. The White Sox swing and miss enough that if it’s working, nothing else really matters. If it’s not, I think the White Sox will hit him and hit him hard. He’s rocking an ERA of 8.07 over his last seven starts, so this matchup has the potential to be a wild game.

Thursday – 1:10 pm

I feel like every time the Royals face Lopez I write the same thing. The talent is there. The stuff is there. But something is just missing. Maybe it’s just a lack of deception? That would seem to make sense because the young righty throws 95-97 with enough movement that he should be much more difficult to hit, but his fastball only has a whiff rate of 14 percent. There’s definitely a disconnect. His slider is a legitimate strikeout pitch, but I feel like he’s just not getting to two strikes as often as he should to be able to use it. And the fastball has been hit hard with a 90.6 MPH average exit velocity on it. It moves, but it doesn’t spin enough, I guess. And until he can figure out a solution (it’s probably throwing fewer fastballs, but don’t tell Lopez until the Royals are done with him), he’s probably going to be toil as a mediocre at best starter with tantalizing potential. Lopez has faced the Royals twice this year, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 14 innings. He’s allowed a whopping 19 hits and three home runs, so they’ve seen him well.

Keller’s first start in Yankee Stadium went okay enough, and I think would have been seen in a much more positive light if Ned Yost had any faith in the Royals bullpen. He labored through five innings and gave up just two runs. On a team of Royals past, that would have been it, but with the bullpen issues, he was asked to go back out for the sixth and he gave up two more runs. He continued his inconsistent strikeout work with only getting one, and that’s a Yankees team that strikes out a lot, but he had eight the start before that. In all, Keller’s work as a starter is looking a bit more pedestrian, but a 4.02 ERA and two home runs allowed in 53.2 innings will play in many ways. The White Sox were all over Keller a couple weeks ago, getting him out of the game in the third after he walked four and gave up seven hits, so he’ll obviously need to be much better in this one. I’m intrigued by Keller starting. I’m not as optimistic as some, but I’m intrigued and this is an opportunity to see something as he’s working to bounce back from a tough one in his last start and a tough one against this team, so I’m very interested in how this one goes.

I think the Royals win this series because I’m feeling optimistic for no good reason and because I think the White Sox are even worse than the Royals even though all signs point other directions.

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Friday

Good on James Shields to figure some things out and be a serviceable pitcher again. I’m not sure what happened to him when he went to San Diego, but the home run ball started plaguing him and hasn’t stopped until this season. He’s still walking too many batters, more than double the rate of his last year in Kansas City, but he’s limiting hits and doing everything you want from a back of the rotation starter, which is really what he is now and that has some value. Shields throws his fastball at 90 or so, his cutter at 86-87 and a curve, his patented changeup and the occasional sinker. He really has to mix it up to get results these days, but he’s finding a decent mix. His changeup is still top notch, holding opponents to a .219 average with it and .281 slugging percentage. His curve has been a big strikeout pitch for him, but it’s the one he can leave up and get it knocked around, so Royals should be on the lookout for some hangers. He’s been a completely different pitcher with the bases empty and with runners on and in scoring position. With them empty, opponents have a .574 OPS. When runners get on, that jumps to .909 and when runners are in scoring position, it’s .969, so, uh, get on base against him to succeed. That seems pretty basic, but it’s sound advice. A few Royals have done damage against Shields, but Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda are the ringleaders with Alcides Escobar right behind.

Keller had his first truly rough start his last time out against the Red Sox, giving up four runs on six hits in 4.2 innings. He danced around trouble early and then just couldn’t keep it up into the fifth, largely due to walking five hitters. He elicited just three swinging strikes in his 89 pitches, which seems to be not so ideal. In some ways, you don’t want to excuse young pitchers when facing good teams because they’ll have to beat good teams eventually, but in others, it was a rough start after two outstanding ones. This is a White Sox lineup he should be able to handle. Their only discernable skill offensively is that they hit some home runs and Keller has been elite at suppressing them. They strike out a ton and never walk, so I’ll be a lot more alarmed if he gets hit hard in this one than I was against the Red Sox.

Saturday

In some ways, Lopez has been the White Sox best starter with a really tidy ERA and fewer hits than innings pitched and less than a home run per nine innings. But he’s also struck out just 16.6 percent of hitters he’s faced and walked 10.4 percent. That’s not a very good ratio. He continues to be that guy you think should be at least striking out more hitters but he doesn’t. His fastball is big and it moves pretty well. His changeup looks like it might be a weapon someday. His slider is the only pitch he consistently dominates with as he’s struck out 32 batters with it and only allowed four extra base hits. If you’re looking for a reason why he may not be a reliever, don’t look at how he does the first time through the order vs. the second time. The first time, he allows a .221/.284/.407 line. The second time through that rockets to .316/.413/.471. It’s a little weird that when he’s the most dominant a third time through, but I’m guessing that’s because when he gets there and faces enough of the lineup, it’s because he’s on. He hasn’t faced anybody in baseball too often, but Moustakas has three homers against him in 13 at bats and he’s hot right now. Whit Merrifield is also 4 for 12 with a walk and an HBP against him.

Duffy is coming off a very impressive performance against the Twins. For the third straight game, he walked just two batters over six innings and he piled up double-digit swings and misses for the third time in his last four and the fourth time in his last six starts. He’s now 3-2 with a 3.07 ERA in his last nine starts, spanning 55.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and an 11 percent swing and miss rate. He’s pretty much been the guy he was throughout his career before the start of the season. He’s faced the White Sox twice and wasn’t especially good either time, but that was early in the season when he struggled. He’s actually been really good in Chicago in his career, going 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) over 52 innings with 44 strikeouts and just 13 walks. This particular lineup has been a bit of a problem for him this year, but I’m curious to see how he fares now that he’s pitching better.

Sunday

Giolito might honestly be the biggest disappointment in baseball given what he was supposed to be when he was drafted and what was expected of him coming into this season after a fantastic spring. He’s settled down a bit from earlier in the year, but he’s struck out 57 and walked 57 in 97 innings. That’s WAY too few strikeouts for a guy with his stuff and WAY too many walks for, well, anyone. Plus, he’s hit 11 batters, so he’s put 68 runners on base for free this year. Add in 94 hits allowed and he’s just working with runners on base constantly. I mentioned his stuff, and maybe it really just isn’t that good. His fastball is only averaging 92-93 and he mixes that with a sinker, changeup, slider and curve. Only the slider has been truly effective this year, limiting opponents to a .153 average and .306 SLG. He’s been an absolute disaster at home with an 8.65 ERA and 29 walks in 42.2 innings pitched. It’s not that he’s been considerably better on the road, but he’s just been so bad in Chicago. Even with all that, he’s still very good ahead in the count, allowing a .495 OPS, so get him when ahead (1.189 OPS) and even the Royals could put up some runs against him.

Bullpen day for a bad bullpen. Fun.

If we’re being honest, the Royals have a real shot to maybe even win this series. Neither team is good and bad teams playing a series can do some really weird things. For now, though, I’m predicting both teams get swept.

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White Sox vs. Royals

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Thursday

I’m officially fascinated by Giolito. He’s now thrown a few games in the last three seasons and they all have been so different. His first time in the big leagues, he got hit hard, didn’t strike anyone out and walked too many. Then last year when he came to the White Sox, he was tough to hit, had control and at least had a few more strikeouts. And now this year, he’s walked 19 in 20 innings and has only struck out nine. He’s also hit four batters. The guy is an absolute mess. His fastball velocity remains down, averaging less than 92 MPH, but it’s still been somewhat effective, though he’s walked 17 hitters with it. His changeup has been sort of mauled in a limited sample with three doubles given up in seven at bats. He gave up three runs on four hits over six innings in his first start of the year against the Royals, but he walked four and struck out just one. It was a sign of things to come. His last start was brutal with nine runs allowed in two innings to go along with seven walks. Yeesh.

With it late enough in the season, DRA makes its debut on Baseball Prospectus for the year and in the series previews! I think there might be some leveling off it needs to do because I feel like 4.57 is a little high for him. He’s pitched as well as an ace, though. I don’t think he is that, but he’s been really good for almost a half-season of pitching now, going 9-2 with a 3.13 ERA over his last 89 innings dating back to last season with just 14 walks in that time. There’s likely some regression coming, and not just because a 2.03 ERA isn’t sustainable for hardly anyone but because he’s stranding runners at an incredible rate (90.4 percent). Even so, he looks the part of a force in a big league rotation and hasn’t disappointed after a great spring raised the hype on him considerably. This will be the first time in his career he faces the White Sox.

Friday

Lopez, also originally from the Nationals, has been almost as interesting as Giolito. The thought was that his big fastball and lacking secondary pitches might play better in the bullpen, but he had a very promising showing after coming up last year because he was able to improve on his control. He also struck out fewer hitters last year, but had a better strikeout to walk ratio in general. This year, he’s striking out almost a batter per inning, but he’s allowed 15 walks in his 24 innings. Of course, he’s only allowed 12 hits. All in all, it leads to some really solid numbers, but I’m not so sure it’s sustainable. Somehow he’s averaging six innings per start with all those walks and strikeouts and hasn’t been overly taxed, but I feel like that’s going to change at some point if the peripherals don’t. But the one thing he has going for him and always will is the fact that his stuff is so good that even when he’s behind in the count, he’s still in good shape because he’s allowed just a .174 average to hitters who had the advantage. Mike Moustakas has taken him deep a couple times and Whit Merrifield is 3 for 9 against him, so they’ve seen him well and are hitters to watch against him.

I officially don’t know what to make of Danny Duffy. His velocity, while better recently, is still down for the season. His command looks like rookie year Duffy. But he’s also been very successful at times. I still think he’s battling an injury, but I’ve been wrong before here. Even though his velocity is down for the year, it’s been better in his last couple starts with his four-seamer averaging 93.6 MPH in Toronto and 93.3 MPH in Detroit. He hasn’t even really been hit all that hard on the whole. It’s just that command has led to way too many walks and way too many grooved pitches, though it’s worth mentioning that he’s only allowed one home run since the Opening Day debacle against these very White Sox. I’d love to tell you that I know what we’re going to see from Duffy in this one, but I don’t think anyone, including Danny himself, knows. Jose Abreu and Yolmer Sanchez are the two White Sox who have hit him best, so watch out for them in this one.

Saturday – Game One

Fulmer is another young White Sox starter struggling with control. He’s thrown 18 innings and walked 10 in them, which is pretty consistent with the rate for his whole career. He’s not especially deceptive, only eliciting two swings and misses in his last start, though he somehow only allowed two runs in six innings in a win over the Mariners. And if we’re being fair, six of his 10 walks came in one start against the Rays early this season, so maybe he shouldn’t be looked at as having control issues. Fulmer mixes a 93-95 MPH fastball with a changeup, cutter and occasional curve. So far this season, hitters have been able to take the fastball deep and have hit .304 with a .478 SLG against that cutter, so those are the pitches to key on. He’s also been hit very hard by right-handed hitters to the tune of a.283/.358/.543 line. That reverse split is in line with his career numbers, so this is a game where Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Merrifield might have to carry the offense.

Prior to his last start, Skoglund was coming off the second best start of his career and I mentioned that it’s a problem that the second best start of his career was allowing five runs in five innings. Well move over that start because a new second sheriff is in town. He gave up just four runs in five innings in his last start, so at this rate, he’ll be a competent starter by mid-May. All jokes aside, I still don’t see it with Skoglund. He has middling stuff and average, at best, command. Which is weird because that was sort of his calling card in the minors. The guy has given up 11 hits per nine and has a WHIP of 1.568. There’s some underlying numbers that show maybe he isn’t quite this bad, but if he’s giving up that many base runners, he’s just not going to be successful. Skoglund did face the White Sox last year, allowing three runs on five hits in three innings with two walks.

Saturday – Game Two

We will update the White Sox starter with information when it becomes available.

It looks for all the world like Buchholz will make his Royals debut in this one after a couple solid starts in the minors to begin the season. He made two starts last year, pitching just 7.1 innings and allowing 16 hits and three walks. Yikes. But, that said, he isn’t that far removed from a really nice stretch of pitching in 2016, throwing 58.2 innings in his final 19 games with a 3.22 ERA and allowing just 47 hits in that time. Can he be a serviceable big league starter? I honestly don’t know and I honestly doubt it. If his velocity is up into the 90s, he could be successful, and maybe he can figure out how to pitch without velocity like many before him have, but like any reclamation project, it’s a longshot. But hey, they’ve come through before. He’s allowed home runs to Abreu and Anderson in his career, but that’s the only hit Abreu has off him in 11 career at bats.

Sunday

Remember when the Royals signed Volstad? I barely do. He’s somehow just 31 years old and is now a decade removed from his rookie year that showed so much promise. But he’s still kicking and making starts for a beleaguered White Sox rotation. The one thing he’s done well his whole career is avoiding the free pass, and he’s doing that well again this season, though he’s pretty much as hittable as he’s always been. He relies heavily on two pitches, a sinker and a curve, and both have plus potential. The sinker has done its job this season in his 12 innings of work, limiting opponents to just a .035 ISO and helping him to an insane 68.6 percent ground ball rate. He does throw a changeup, but It’s really only for show. He made his first start on Tuesday against the Mariners and threw just 66 pitches, which is only one fewer than he threw in his only minor league appearance this season, so he’s likely not stretched out to go more than 80 to 85 pitches, which the Royals should try to take advantage of.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee Kennedy makes this start after leaving his last start following a line drive off his foot, but he’s there for now. He was looking fairly sharp before getting hit with that ball and then giving up a monster home run to Travis Shaw. Injury or not, that’s two straight subpar starts for Kennedy after a fantastic start to the season, so there is cause for concern given his rough year last season. This’ll be a big start for him after pitching very well against the White Sox earlier this season in a game Brandon Maurer blew late. Like so many Royals pitchers, Abreu has been a thorn in his side with a .429/.455/.857 line against him in 22 plate appearances. Davidson has also homered against him as has Kevan Smith.

These are two bad teams, and while the White Sox won both games earlier this year, the Royals should have come away with one of the wins if not for Gas Can Maurer. I think this will be a really ugly series and if baseball could award wins at will, both teams might go 0-5, but I’m feeling optimistic here and think the Royals actually take three of five and feel pretty good about themselves following the series.

Note: All stats are from 2017.

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Thursday

It wasn’t that long ago that Shields was actually quite good. Now he’s quite bad. He’s had two straight seasons with an ERA above 5.00 and PECOTA projects a third straight for him. His once impeccable control is no longer, and the home run has hurt him even more than most. One of the biggest issues for him has been lefties. He allowed a .279/.375/.554 line to them last season, so the Royals spring additions should be helpful in this one. And if you’re looking for one player to hang your hat on, Mike Moustakas is 5 for 10 with a double and a home run against Shields in his career.

Duffy struggled through spring training and then was lifted early in his last start due to a shoulder issue. I don’t think anyone truly knows what to expect in spite of him and Ned Yost declaring he’s fine. If he’s healthy, he might put together his best full season, but health is the question with him, as it’s always been. It may or may not be worth noting that Duffy gave up 19 runs on 34 hits in 22 innings against the White Sox last season. Of all players,  Yolmer Sanchez has been the best against Duffy, hitting .400/.423/.560 in 27 plate appearances.

Saturday

Giolito debuted last season and the raw numbers look fantastic with that shiny ERA, but the peripherals indicated he wasn’t quite so good with that high DRA you see above. In spite of having really great stuff, he just hasn’t gotten the swings and misses you’d hope for from him. PECOTA projects big-time improvement in that area with more than a strikeout per inning, and he was outstanding in spring, so maybe the breakout is coming. The sample is small, but it interested me that Giolito was excellent the first time through the order and actually quite good the third time, but pretty rough the second time through. When that happens, it’s typically that a pitcher waits too long to adjust and introduce secondary pitches in an outing, which tells me his fastball can be had after they’ve seen it. He was great against the Royals in two starts last year, posting a 1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings.

There was nothing good about Kennedy’s season last year outside of how he pitched in April. The hope is that his hamstring injury really did hamper him all season, but even if that’s true, he’s now 33 and muscle issues don’t get better as you age typically. On the plus side, he had a really good spring, allowing an almost unfathomable zero home runs and striking out 23 in 18 innings. Like Duffy, Kennedy was brutal against the White Sox last year, giving up 19 runs on 26 hits in 20 innings. Better performances from Duffy and Kennedy against the White Sox very well could have been the difference between the second wild card and the reality of 2017.

Sunday

If you like stuff, Lopez is your guy. His fastball is really good at 94-96 mph, but unless he’s able to get his changeup to be an out pitch, he’s likely not going to be able to cut it as a starter. Last year, he gave up four home runs on it, even though he got plenty of swings and misses on it. That profile means he’ll probably be hot and cold this year, but when he’s hot, he’ll probably look like one of the better pitchers in the league. Control is a question with Lopez, and it was much better last year in his big league stint, but he struggled with it in the Cactus League, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can rediscover it out of Arizona. Last year against the Royals, he made three of his eight starts and struck out just seven in 18.1 innings while giving up 11 runs (just seven earned) on 21 hits, so the Royals saw him pretty well.

While there wasn’t much positive you could say about Kennedy’s 2017, I don’t think Hammel was quite so horrible. He provided innings at least, and he probably underpitched his peripherals a bit. The obvious issue was when the lineup turned over a third time. He allowed a .690 OPS the first time through, a .740 the second time and then a .931 the third time. I’m not sure how he plans on changing that, but either he’s going to need to or Ned Yost is going to need to have a much quicker hook with him. Hammel had a brutal spring, if you’re into that sort of thing, so I imagine the Royals have more hope than expectation for him this season. This game is supposed to be very cold, so maybe he’ll have a good start with hitting conditions so poor.

I personally think the White Sox are better than the Royals, and I think they’ll be better than the Royals in this series. My money is on the Royals losing two of three with their best shot on Opening Day against their former ace.