• I wrote about the Billy Hamilton signing for the main site, but I wanted to bring some of my reasoning for disliking the trade here that includes a couple additional things I hadn’t even thought of until Clint Scoles brought them up the other day. From a pure dollars per win standpoint, Hamilton for $5.25 million is an absolute steal. With the value of a win nearing $10 million, he doesn’t have a big hill to climb to get to where he needs to be to be worth the money, but there’s an opportunity cost here that I believe makes this deal not worth the money or the roster spot. I mentioned some of this last week, so forgive me for repeating myself, but the Royals have plenty of outfielders already and they even have one who plays outstanding defense. And with all the lefty outfielders they currently have projected to at least fight for starting time, it’d be nice to have one who could hit lefties and Hamilton is worse against lefties than righties. This also theoretically limits the flexibility of Whit Merrifield, which isn’t a huge deal in itself, but could slow the Royals down in promoting Nicky Lopez. Again, it’s not a huge deal or anything, but if you want to know who Hamilton is likely blocking, there’s another answer in addition to Brett Phillips. It isn’t that both those guys couldn’t use more time in AAA or that Phillips couldn’t play right field and Lopez couldn’t play third base, but then you’re missing out on the opportunity to give Jorge Bonifacio and Hunter Dozier the requisite plate appearances to get to the magical 1,500 number that Dayton Moore preached so loudly with guys like Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. It’s a one-year deal, so it’s really not a big deal, but as much fun as Hamilton’s defense and stolen bases will be, I think it was a poor use of limited remaining funds.
• The Royals doubled down on their 2017 Rule 5 draft strategy and walked away with two pitchers, drafting Sam McWilliams from the Rays second overall and trading for Chris Ellis who was selected by the Rangers. Both are interesting picks. In McWilliams, I see a vaguely similar results profile to last year’s breakout, Brad Keller. Not that they’re the same pitcher, but McWilliams also reached Double-A in the season before the draft and had middling at best results. He was very good in high-A for the Diamondbacks in five starts, so that’s something to build on. He’s a tall righty with a decent fastball and solid slider, according to J.J. Cooper at Baseball America. He strikes out a fair amount of hitters and limits walks reasonably well, so that’s something that’d be nice to continue in the big leagues. Ellis reached Triple-A last year for the second time and had decent success, throwing 79 innings over 16 outings (14 starts) with solid control and enough strikeouts to be dangerous. His Triple-A debut in 2017 was pretty much a disaster, but he’ll be 26 in 2018 and seems like a decent bet to stick in middle relief for the big club, at least for awhile. As we’ve all learned from the Rule 5 draft, we just can’t know what he’s going to be. This time last year, I was super excited about Burch Smith and had very little interest in Brad Keller and we all saw how that worked out.
• I know that Ned Yost said he wasn’t going to talk about the lineup, but that doesn’t stop us from doing it. With the addition of Hamilton, I think the lineup is in pretty good shape as far as us having an idea what it will be. I imagine they’ll at least stick with the top three from the end of the season after Alex Gordon hit .275/.359/.425 over his final 21 games hitting there. So a top three of Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi and Gordon seems likely to be followed by Salvador Perez and his .204 ISO. This is where it gets a little murky, but if I had to guess, I’d say Ryan O’Hearn gets first crack to hit fifth and will be followed by Jorge “if healthy” Soler. I could see Soler and O’Hearn flipped with the seven-eight spots being some combination of Jorge Bonifacio, Brett Phillips, Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier, whoever wins the right field and third base jobs. And at the end of the lineup will be Hamilton. One thing I noted in my BP write-up of the Hamilton deal is that there have been just seven teams in modern history to have three or more players steal 40 or more bases. The most recent was the 1988 Cardinals. These Royals could easily be the eighth if everyone stays healthy and hits enough to stay in the lineup. So if nothing else, that’s pretty cool.
• Speaking of third base, I don’t think the Royals will bring in any competition to their current group, especially with the signing of Owings, but it is a position where I could see it. They signed Cuthbert for the $800,000, but I think I mentioned before that if they cut him early enough, they only owe him about $133,000 and if they cut him in spring, they’d owe him $200,000, so they could move on. And Dozier does have options. I mentioned some non-tenders who they could look at either last week or the week before, but could they maybe look toward signing a veteran like they did last year with Mike Moustakas? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s certainly possible. A Moose reunion would actually make some sense here, but it’s not just him. Yangervis Solarte is a player with some versatility who can play third, though he isn’t especially good. Josh Harrison is another and so is Tim Beckham. What’s appealing about Beckham would be his ability to play shortstop as well since Owings isn’t what you’d call good there. Again, I doubt it happens with that Owings already on board, but it’s something to watch for if one of these veterans gets to March in the same way Moustakas did last season.

As I have it from the Royals press release, Matheny will be a special advisor for player development, which I know has many who observed his Cardinals tenure in stitches. He won’t be on the bench. He won’t be assisting Dayton Moore in any official capacity. He’ll just… kind of be around?

And yet we all know what this is—Break Glass in Case of Managerial Change. This is the same kind of positionless position Matheny used to springboard himself into the managerial spot in St. Louis in the first place. Heck, it’s how we got Ned Yost. This act is familiar to every manager whose end is near or whose future is uncertain, and with Ned set to turn 65 next year, it’s not terribly unfair to wonder how long he plans to keep going here.

The gist I get, from spending time talking to Cardinal fans or (shudder) going to Cardinal-centric websites, is that Matheny cared a lot about his players and embodied the Leader of Men mantra that Very Serious Baseball Men™ place exceptional value on. As much as we turn players into numbers rather than people, from all appearances Matheny seemed to care greatly about the person wearing the uniform beyond his WPA or tOPS+. And he made the postseason four straight years to start his tenure, although crediting him with not completely steering the ship into an iceberg as soon as he took over seems rather back-handed—the 2012 Cardinals had talent and a pipeline of up-and-coming youngsters to keep things moving in a good direction, even with the unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras.

He also lost complete and utter control not only of the clubhouse but seemingly of the intricate little things required to be an effective manager. He was clueless as a tactician. He couldn’t run a pitching staff to save his life, and that’s giving him the benefit of the doubt for what guys like Jordan Hicks, Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver were able to do at various times under his tutelage. He played favorites. I’m no Yadier Molina stan, but hey… Yadi’s out taking shots, and I’m not sure there’s many more respected players in baseball than Yadier Molina. He’s inflexible. He wore out position players. He let veteran doofuses harass talented youngsters because Baseball Reasons and also encouraged those same vets to become clubhouse snitches. He also seemed to go out of his way to antagonize other players, including a high-priced free-agent signing and a talent they basically gave away for nothing who hit .343 for his next franchise.

Sounds like a treat!

It should be noted that Mike Shildt took the same guys Matheny barely scratched a .500 record with and went 41-28 and nearly drug the Cardinals to the playoffs last season. Maybe Mike Shildt is modern-day Casey Stengel, maybe he’s not. But one day Matheny was in St. Louis and everyone hated everyone else and they played mediocre baseball, and the next day he was gone and things were fine. I think there might be a tendency to overthink this, that perhaps there were other mitigating factors at work—don’t do that. When Mike Matheny was fired, the St. Louis Cardinals became a markedly better baseball team.

Now he’s Kansas City’s problem. This concerns me for several reasons and excites me for none. Nothing I have read about Mike Matheny, Manager makes this sound promising. No Cardinals fan I’ve spoken to enjoyed the Mike Matheny Experience.

If what we believe will happen comes to pass—that Matheny is the successor to Yost once the latter is out to pasture—one wonders what the resulting ripples might be. Free-agents are already reticent to come to small-market Kansas City—how might they feel about Matheny after he froze out Dexter Fowler? Young players may not enjoy cutting their teeth in a clubhouse if some middling reliever is gonna trash them at every turn or rat them out to the boss. And we have no proof that Matheny can “coach ‘em up,” as the parlance goes—what kind of manager will he be if/when he doesn’t have a team at the height of its powers?

I imagine it will look quite a bit like the first half of his final year in St. Louis, only worse.

For now, I go back to what I started with—that there’s only so much damage he’ll be able to do in an advisory capacity. Perhaps he’ll take a year to get indoctrinated into the Royal Way and his crash course in Baseball According to Dayton Moore will be perspective-altering. Perhaps he will develop a rapport with the next wave of Royals and they’ll rally around him in a year or two as they begin to make their big-league debuts (this seems to be what happened for the Atlanta Braves and Brian Snitker in some capacity, although Matheny would certainly be more fly-by-night). In an advisory role, I guess he’ll have some voice in development, although how much and to what end will likely be the subject of much debate—I’m sure there’s an example you could point to of a player who is better for Mike Matheny having passed through his life, but I’m not sure who and I’m not sure that same player wouldn’t also lament certain aspects of life under Matheny.

So… yeah. Even though this was rumored for a long time now, I’m nowhere closer to understanding just why. Why add Mike Matheny? He’s not a brilliant baseball mind. He’s not a well-respected teacher. I guess he’s a leader, except for the part where he got fired from his last gig in part because he lost his clubhouse. He’s just a dude who has been around baseball for a long time and happened to be unemployed.

If he’s a player, you could see taking a flier on him and hoping he turns into something you can trade for value ahead of the deadline; if not, you cut him loose in spring training. That’s not going to happen with Matheny; now we just get to watch and wait. Exciting!

(It’s November. This is what passes for news.)

• With this week’s deadline to add players to the 40-man roster around baseball, a new crop of potential free agents is now out there. Some haven’t reached the open market yet, but there are a couple new names out there. One of interest to me is Derek Dietrich. Now, he was just DFAed, so maybe the Marlins have a deal lined up, but if he reaches the open market, he might be a nice fit for the Royals to play third base for them. It’s not that there’s anything inherently wrong with giving Hunter Dozier and/or Cheslor Cuthbert a chance to earn their future spot on the roster, but I don’t think either one is so important that you don’t try to improve on them. Dietrich has been an above-average hitter for the last four years and recently completed a .265/.330/.421 season. Over the last four years, he’s hit .262/.344/.428 in about 1,700 plate appearances. No he isn’t a star and it’s not like the Royals are looking for someone to put them over the top, but Dietrich is a nice player who could be useful if the Royals end up moving Whit Merrifield at some point, even if that’s unlikely this offseason. And if you look around the diamond, there aren’t many spots where the Royals are likely to even look at outside possibilities. On a vaguely related note, it’s too bad the Royals aren’t looking to compete because now that CJ Cron is available, he’d be a hell of a nice fit with Ryan O’Hearn in a platoon situation, but I digress.
• As for the players the Royals did protect – Scott Blewett, Josh Staumont and Arnaldo Hernandez – I think those are interesting choices. Hernandez was one of the more interesting cases they had, and while I’m not surprised they did add him to the 40-man, I wasn’t sure they’d do it. I think Blewett was sort of on the bubble before his strong Arizona Fall League performance, but I am a little surprised Jecksson Flores didn’t get added. He maybe isn’t a true shortstop, but he can handle the position and broke through big time in 2018 offensively. I think the odds are that he doesn’t get picked, so it’s not that big of a deal, but I just thought he had a shot. In all three of the pitchers they did add, I think they all have an opportunity to impact the big league club. Staumont, in particular, seems like a decent bet to make the club out of spring training after he’s spent parts of the last two seasons in AAA. If the Royals are serious about using their bullpen differently next year, they’ll need a lot of pitchers who can ride the taxi, since they’ll need guys who can work multiple innings, which means they’ll need to find fresh arms wherever they can. After 2017 when they had so few pitchers with any options, it’ll be nice to be able to have some serious roster flexibility.
• I’m a little surprised that there wasn’t more hand wringing over some of the Royals decisions, but I think it’s worth noting that the Royals have a pretty darn good track record of picking the right people to add to the 40-man and protect them from the Rule 5. Even if players like Merrifield should have been picked, they had a great read over what other teams would do and haven’t really lost anyone of note. I’m talking more specifically about Frank Schwindel than anyone. I wrote during the season that Schwindel was probably the guy to earn the callup over O’Hearn, and that’s still true even after what O’Hearn did, but that doesn’t mean that he’s likely to be selected. Guys who are first base only and aren’t that great of a hitter aren’t going to be picked all that often. That’s not to say that a contending team wouldn’t see him as a bench bat who could do something for them, but I’d be surprised if he’s taken this year, just like I’d have been surprised if he was taken last year. As we saw in 2018, if he continues to hit, he’ll likely earn his shot at some point during the season, so I guess we’ll just see how that goes.
• I think it’s fair to be a little more optimistic about the offense heading into 2019 than we were prior to the 2018 season. Looking at the TAv metric on Baseball Prospectus, the Royals leaders (other than Ian Kennedy) were Ryan O’Hearn (.323), Jorge Soler (.291), Adalberto Mondesi (.284), Merrifield (.284), Mike Moustakas (.273), Jon Jay (.263) and Brian Goodwin (.263). Of those seven, you might notice that five of them will be back with the team next season and will likely all play big roles, if healthy. Maybe more important is that the vast majority of the bottom of the barrel won’t be back with the team next season. That’s a big reason why I think the Royals could easily jump 12-15 wins from last year. It’s no guarantee obviously, but they have a real strong opportunity to replace all the players from last season who were so far below replacement level with maybe guys who aren’t quite so bad. It’s at least a good thought that was a big reason why they showed improvement down the stretch. Eliminate the horrendous players and you can typically find yourself at least in the realm of respectable.

The 60-day DL Guys

Jesse Hahn, Nate Karns, Cheslor Cuthbert and Jorge Soler all are currently not counting against the roster, but will be in short order. Soler, barring a trade, is sticking around. The other three all have a case for getting non-tendered. None are expected to make much, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting the three to make a combined $4.2 million or so, but two of the three didn’t even make a big league appearance last year and the third was anemic offensively for the second straight year before an injury lingered and kept him out.

If I’m running the show, I probably non-tender both Hahn and Karns and try to get them back on minor league deals. I think that might be the way the Royals go, but you really never know with them. They always march to a different beat. With Cuthbert, I’m probably cutting bait and just saying goodbye. While he’s younger than Hunter Dozier, he never showed the power that Dozier has and doesn’t have the positional flexibility. And both may be passed up soon anyway by some of the minor leaguers working their way through the system.

So with cutting bait on those three, the Royals could call it a day and be done for at least the time being as that would put them at 39 on the roster.

The Minor Leaguers Who Need to be Added

But that 39 number comes before players who need to be added to the 40-man to avoid being selected in the Rule 5 draft. The Royals have done a really nice job of knowing who they were likely to lose and not protecting those they aren’t, but there are quite a few decisions to make this year.

Nick Dini and Xavier Fernandez are both catchers who could be solid and might attract attention as big league backups right now. The Royals are so rich in catching that they really can’t afford to add them unless they make some cuts elsewhere. This won’t thrill people, but I’m guessing they don’t add Frank Schwindel either because they feel he’s a good risk to not be lost. D.J. Burt is eligible as well, and he’s a guy they may lose, but I just don’t see how they can use a 40-man spot on him either. The same is true for Donnie Dewees. They have plenty of fourth outfielder types, so if they lose him, oh well.

I believe there will be plenty of conversations about adding Jecksson Flores who broke out in 2018 at Northwest Arkansas and hit .314/.363/.440 while playing all over the field. Elier Hernandez also could get some consideration, though I think the Royals ultimately will risk losing him after he posted a sub-.400 SLG in both stops last season. The big questions are on the pitching staff.

Jonathan Dziedzic, Arnaldo Hernandez, Jake Kalish, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Gerson Garabito, Ofreidy Gomez and Jon Perrin are all starters who are eligible for the Rule 5. Josh Staumont, Gabe Speier and Yunior Marte are all relievers eligible.

Hernandez, Blewett, Griffin and Staumont seem to me to be the likely pitching staff additions, and potentially Yunior Marte. The team likes Hernandez a lot while Blewett has had a fantastic AFL showing. Add them to Flores who I think gets the nod and that’s five new players and maybe even six if they do add Marte.

And now we’re back in trouble with 45 members.

The DFA Crew

So now it’s time to cut some players, and probably a lot of them, which means decisions the Royals don’t want to make will have to be made. To me, there are at least five obvious cuts to start. Bubba Starling, Paulo Orlando, Burch Smith, Brandon Maurer and Andres Machado can all be cut without even thinking twice. The Royals will likely think twice on all of them, but I think (hope?) they make the right call. That leaves questions on a few guys.

Ramon Torres had a similar rise to Flores, but took a big step back in 2018 and with Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez’s rise, the opportunities there for him are few and far between. I think he goes. Now we’re back in a situation where they could just stop, but it helps to have a little wiggle room, so I think they need to find one more cut. The easy answer is Ben Lively to me. He’s a depth guy and nothing more. That said, I wonder if they’d look at a DFA of Jason Adam with the idea that they could bring him back on a minor league deal. Either way, they’re down to 38, which is a good place to be for the moment.

I think it’s worth noting that Rosell Herrera may not make it through the spring, though I think he’s safe until at least then. The Royals may break camp with Lopez, and if they do, I think Herrera’s spot is the one to go and he’s out of options.

One other name to watch is Samir Duenez. He had a nice 2018 in Northwest Arkansas, hitting .279/.352/.464 and I really liked him as a prospect a couple years ago, but with Ryan O’Hearn hitting like he did in the big leagues and Nick Pratto coming on in the second half, Duenez might be in no-man’s land. I don’t imagine he loses his spot now, but his day of reckoning might be coming.

Trade Candidates

There’s really not much here that could clear a 40-man spot. Danny Duffy would have been a trade chip if he had a good season and/or was healthy, but neither really happened, so they’re not moving a guy at his lowest value, especially when they don’t want to move him anyway. They could flip someone like Jerry Vasto or Tim Hill to a team looking for a LOOGY, so that’s something to watch for. Or one of them could easily be let go as well, though I don’t really expect that.

Some would argue that Whit Merrifield should be in this list, and they might be right, but the odds the Royals trade him are so low that it’s not worth talking about. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but they’ll have to have their socks knocked off and it’s starting to get cold and they don’t want bare feet. I mentioned Jorge Soler earlier as well. Either he or Jorge Bonifacio could be moved, but the Royals need Soler’s potential and Bonifacio isn’t exactly coming off the best campaign to trade. I suppose it could happen, though, and that would open up another spot.

So that’s what the Royals are facing this offseason. It’s a lot of work for a team that isn’t likely to win more than 75 games and even that may be optimistic, but they’ll really have to work to massage this roster to get down below the 40-man and with so many fringe players, this might be a season-long struggle for them. But hey, at least it’s something to talk about!

• With the likely limited events of the upcoming offseason, it has me looking ahead to 2019/2020, which is pretty dangerous, but depending on how some of the young guys do this year, the Royals might be looking for some stopgaps to get from the end of the 2019 season to the middle of 2021 or so. A few names to keep an eye on in free agency, to me, are Mitch Moreland, Todd Frazier, Jedd Gyorko, Jarrod Dyson, Ben Zobrist (if he doesn’t retire), Mike Fiers, Erasmo Ramirez and any number of relievers. While things can certainly change over the next 12 months, any of these players might find a year in Kansas City attractive if either just for a job or maybe some nostalgia as their careers wind down. Knowing that outfield and corner infield appear to be the areas where the team might need a boost in 2020 is sort of comforting because there are passable options out there. Of course, there always seem to be passable first baseman (a la Lucas Duda), but even so, this is a short list for what the Royals might go after in 2020 in order to remain respectable while waiting on the next wave that should start to show up in the next couple seasons.
• One thing that I hadn’t really considered until really just now is how much bad the Royals are replacing on their 2018 roster heading into 2019. Of course, that doesn’t mean the replacement won’t be as bad or maybe even worse, but with the losses of Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ryan Goins, Abraham Almonte, Cheslor Cuthbert (likely), Drew Butera, Paulo Orlando, Alcides Escobar (hopefully), Kelvin Herrera, Jason Hammel, Burch Smith (hopefully), Blaine Boyer, Brandon Maurer (hopefully), Justin Grimm and Enny Romero, the Royals are actually ridding themselves of -3.8 WARP. So simply replacing that with guys who really belong on AAA and are the definition of replacement level will bring the Royals four more wins. Go out and get some one-win players to replace them and that’s how they get from horrific to simply bad without really having to do anything. The top of the roster still needs an overhaul, and that’s something that might happen naturally too if Adalberto Mondesi keeps up his second half work, Whit Merrifield continues to be this player and Jorge Soler comes back healthy. But the biggest issue for the time being is that the bottom of the roster was just so horrible in 2018 that it weighed down everything. I think a good first step is bringing that up and then going from there. Of course, there will be bad players on the roster. It’s a matter of minimizing them as much as possible.
• Gold Glove finalists were announced yesterday and while the award is a silly one, it has gotten better. The days of Rafael Palmeiro winning it while barely playing first base are over, as they actually utilize some analytics in the process. The Royals had two finalists and if you watched the team for more than a handful of games, you know it’s Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez. By pretty much all accounts, Gordon was the best left fielder in baseball. Again. And he’s doing it as now one of the slower players in baseball, so he’s getting by with instinct, arm and just some natural talent there. So I think it would be a huge upset if he doesn’t win given that he’s got the history and the name and the numbers to back it up. Perez had his streak snapped last year, so he’s going for his fifth again this season and compared to Gomes and Maldonado (last year’s winner), I do think he comes out on top as well. He really upped his caught stealing numbers and that means something to the voters. So my guess is even in a terrible season, the Royals have two familiar Gold Glovers.
• As the Royals transition from their last good team to hopefully their next, there are a few different types of players they have on their roster. One of them is the type we’ve talked a fair amount about and that’s the guys who really seem to have a short time to make an impact and an impression. One of those guys is Brian Goodwin. With Brett Phillips, he has some time, but Goodwin seems like one of those guys who can either become a part of the future in 2019 or can become a footnote of players who just happened to be on the Royals roster at some point in time. I was actually somewhat impressed by him last season in his short time with the Royals. He seemed to play a solid center field and flashed enough power to keep teams honest. The UZR numbers backed up the solid defense, though the sample is still way too small for defensive purposes. I don’t think Goodwin is a starter on the next Royals playoff team, but he’s still young enough that he can play a valuable role, and I’m very excited and curious to see how he fares in 2019 for them.

I know that probably sounds pretty snarky and mean-spirited, but it’s true: if the Royals took the team that finished the season, lock stock and barrel, into the spring of 2019, they would be fine. Fine. Not world beaters, division champs or much better than slightly below .500, but perfectly serviceable, with a young player, at least league-average and possibly better, at almost every lineup spot and rotation that wouldn’t immediately send an unsuspecting bystander into a sudden spasm of vomit. Given the trash fire that was the 2018 Kansas City Royals from April to June, that’s about as ringing an endorsement as you’re likely to find.

The Royals wouldn’t pass up a Manny Machado, Bryce Harper or (almost sure to be opting out) Clayton Kershaw; that’s stupid, and Dayton Moore might be many things but stupid is not one of them. They just won’t pony up the numbers, rumored to be astronomical in some cases, that might be required for a player of that trio’s caliber signature. They’ll buy low, look to extract value and flip an asset in decline (a player they don’t need, likely on a short deal) for an asset on the rise (a young prospect, international bonus slots, etc.). They struck at the right moment with Jon Jay last year and there’s every reason to go back to that well for a team that’s two quality starters, an entire bullpen and at least one impact bat away from contention.

With this in mind, I’d like to take this opportunity for prime offseason content farming and look at some of the names the Royals should be dialing up once free agency opens (or right now, none of these guys are still playing and breaking the rules is a part of doing business in baseball).

Versatile Infield Bat That Couldn’t Hit for Beans a Year Ago

Logan Forsythe, Marwin Gonzalez, Sean Rodriguez, Luis Valbuena

Before you send that tweet, just know that I know that most of these guys were varying states of dog crap last year. Just super-aware on that end.

The argument against both Rodriguez and Valbuena is the same argument anyone with a mind makes against bringing back Alcides Escobar: there are holes in their swings you could drive an actual truck through. Valbuena has been a sub-.200 hitter the last two seasons and Rodriguez hasn’t been the same since a car crash that tore up his shoulder in February 2017. Gonzalez was the weak link for the Astros, Forsythe thought so highly of that the Dodgers traded him for Brian Dozier and whatever Dr. Frankenstein device that was required to resurrect his corpse.

Their presence isn’t about finding someone to shore up first, or third, or wherever. It’s about making sure that Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn—two guys who exceeded many expectations in their first real extended run last year—don’t grow complacent, to challenge and push them in camp and who knows, maybe even contribute. All four can play multiple positions. In a time where bullpens keep expanding, teams can’t afford many backups who aren’t multidimensional. These guys fit that bill, warts and all.

C’mon, I gave you Lucas Duda last year, and he yielded… something. Hit the right guy in the right rebound campaign and reap some trade deadline benefits!

(Honestly, when I put it like that, it’s just so easy I don’t know why these dopes need it spelled out for them.)

Back-end starting pitcher

Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Matt Harvey, Tyson Ross, Josh Tomlin

Just the thought of Bartolo in my life every five days has plastered a big old smile on my face. May Big Sexy pitch forever.

Anyway, three spots in the rotation are set, or seem to be, heading into spring training: Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller should be the top three in some order, with a host of people—Ian Kennedy, Jorge Lopez, Heath Fillmyer, Erik Skoglund, Nathan Karns, etc.—looming as potential candidates for the last two slots unless Ned Yost embraces the opener (as always, don’t rule anything out with Ned). Kennedy we’ve covered here and elsewhere—I think he’d be better served sliding into a relief role at this stage in his career. Karns can’t stay healthy. Skoglund and Fillmyer look great one day and terrible the next. Lopez looked great two days—Sept. 2 and Sept. 9, against Baltimore and Minnesota (combined losses: 199)—and absolutely rancid in most of the rest.

There’s some room for improvement, or if not that, then a little bit of consistency.

Big Sexy is a gate and television attraction; if he’s pitching, I’m watching and if he isn’t awful, well that’s just dandy. Tomlin and Fister are far removed from their respective apexes, but both have upside still—Fister spent two seasons pitching in Texas and Boston (not exactly kind to pitchers) and Tomlin was just surpassed by better, healthier, (FILL IN THE BLANK) pitchers in Cleveland despite remaining one of baseball’s most accurate strike-throwers.

The upside plays here are Harvey and Ross. Would Harvey, given anything resembling a choice, come to Kansas City? Unclear. Is there enough potential to make a Hail Mary offer and take a flier on a guy who was considered to be a linchpin of one of the best young rotations in MLB all of (checks notes) two-and-a-half years ago? Heck yeah buddy, heck yeah.

I can’t quit Tyson Ross and I don’t want to. He’s a power pitcher, but he’s become essentially a two-pitch guy (over 70 percent fastball-slider the last two seasons); he’s got other things in the arsenal (sinker, cutter, change) he could mix in if, you know, Cal Eldred is up for a challenge. Dadgummit, Tyson Ross is gonna be heard from on a contender at some point and there’s no reason that contender couldn’t buy him from the Royals for a back-end top-30 prospect next July.

Relievers

Randall Delgado, Aaron Loup, Adam Ottavino, Oliver Perez, Drew Storen, Jonny Venters, Justin Wilson

Elmore Leonard villain Tim Hill and Wily Peralta made me feel something resembling comfort last year. Kevin McCarthy and Brian Flynn had moments. As mentioned, Kennedy belongs here. If Brandon Maurer is offered arbitration, I will consider it nothing short of a declaration of war on my sanity.

[Hmmm, this is already over 1,000 words.]

Keep Hill, Peralta, Kennedy and McCarthy, non-tender Flynn in hopes of bringing him back on a minor league deal with a spring training invite (he had moments, but not that many) and then go for high-end reclamation projects (Delgado, Storen, Venters) at reduced cost but with potential for a high yield. Wilson, Perez and Ottavino should have offers from contenders, based on recent success. Loup is a guy, albeit one who has gotten major-league hitters out for a number of years in a row. Delgado, Storen and Venters could actually help.

Tl;dr: Give me Forsythe, Bartolo, Ross, Delgado, Storen and Venters. I swear, that plus what the Royals bring back would win at least 72 games next year. I’M NOT CRAZY.

— How about an update on the Royals and their TV rights? As noted previously in this space, the exclusive negotiation rights for Fox Sports and the Royals was set to expire sometime this month. Apparently, that deadline passed last week.

From Sam Mellinger, the Royals aren’t all that concerned:

“We view it as an exciting time,” said Kevin Uhlich, the Royals’ senior vice president for baseball operations. “We don’t view it negatively at all. It’s part of the process, and we’re up for it.”

Indeed, that’s the right mindset as the team enters the most important negotiations this franchise will face over the next decade or so. TV rights deals are massively important to the fiscal well-being of all teams, especially so for the smaller markets, who are looking to grab every dollar they can to keep up with the evolving major league economy. For the Royals to cement a deal with Fox Sports just because they are the current partners would be shortsighted. Television and the way we consume media has changed massively since the Royals last inked a broadcast pact. The Royals owe it to themselves to look at all options.

Besides, just because the window of exclusivity has closed, doesn’t mean the Royals still won’t come to an agreement with Fox Sports. Fox has the right to match any offer the Royals may be willing to sign with another outlet. And for a local network like Fox Sports Midwest, the Royals are ratings gold. Both sides are reportedly happy with the current relationship. If the dollars are right, why not continue with the one who knows you best?

But in this case, options means other ways of serving the broadcast. It could be their own in-house network, although those of us around for RSTN (Royals Sports Television Network) remember that as a low budget mess. Why would the Royals go that direction again? More likely, they could explore streaming platforms such as YouTube, Amazon or even something like Netflix or Hulu. It’s difficult to say how that would work, but you could be looking at a 21st century superstation like TBS was for the Braves or WGN was for the Cubs. Admittedly, with the fragmentation of the audience and the availability of any broadcast on any night, a team gaining a national footprint with the help of a streaming app seems a little farfetched, but stranger things have happened.

Or, they could look to combine outlets to expand their reach. Which in turn, could expand their windfall.

At any rate, the Royals TV rights are officially up for bid. This is massively important to the franchise going forward. As they say in the broadcast business, stay tuned.

— The World Series is set with the Red Sox hosting the Dodgers this week for the first two games before the series moves across the country to LA. Sadly, the Milwaukee Brewers, otherwise known as Royals North, lost out in what was a rather anticlimactic seventh game of the NLCS. It’s a shame because as we ensconse ourselves back in the baseball hinterlands of second-division finishes, it was fun to have a rooting interest in the Brewers. In addition to the players such as Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and others, Milwaukee resembled those championship Royals teams in the style of play and the fashion of victories. Top-notch defense, a stellar bullpen and an opportunistic offense carried them to within the precipice of the World Series. Not a bad showing at all.

The Brewers were the hottest team in baseball when the postseason opened, won home field advantage, and came up one game short for the NL pennant. It’s just another reminder that winning leagues and championships is damn difficult.

With most of their core players returning for another year, the Brewers will continue to be a force. And Moustakas once again enters free agency, hoping for that payday that never arrived last winter to finally materialize. He performed well enough between Kansas City and Milwaukee, but his power production dropped from 38 home runs and a .249 ISO to 28 dingers and a .208 ISO. Not a great time for a downturn in those numbers, but to spin it in a positive manner it was his third consecutive season with an ISO over .200.

Like most free agents entering their age 30 season, caveat emptor if you’re looking for any kind of a long term deal. After last year, it should be interesting to see how the market treats him this time around.

— Finally, the Royals seem to forget that media can include us basement dwellers.

We invited the media to check out Hit For Your Seats this afternoon. Renew your season seats or place a deposit by October 26 to get the chance to hit on the field! https://t.co/HjCIvsVFY6 pic.twitter.com/vMVlIJHLeC

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) October 19, 2018

Give me a wood bat, a 70 mph straight fastball, put Glory Days on the PA and I could maybe generate some loft. And I’d blame my lack of visiting Dong Town on the weather.

You know, I think what jumpstarted the rebuild is we quit talking about the rebuild. I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that it’s OK to lose baseball games. It’s not… I think that was a big part of it. We just made a decision we were going to quit talking about this.

Interesting. And a little goofy. A winning culture and, by subset, a positive mindset are clearly important to Moore. If he believes that not talking about a rebuild was what led to a better second half, that’s his prerogative. But facts are facts and the 2018 season was the first year of a rebuild. Not talking about it doesn’t magically make said rebuild go any faster or disappear altogether. 

Rebuild. Rebuild. Rebuild. There. I wrote it. I’ll write it again.

The truth was, Moore didn’t think his team was going to be 100-loss bad last summer. The overall results left him dissatisfied, but the Royals improved second half left him encouraged.

I think for 2019, I’m more encouraged than I was perhaps at the beginning of 2018… I really felt that 2019 would perhaps be a much more challenging year for us from a won-loss standpoint, not 2018. I didn’t see 100 in the 2018 season. I just didn’t. I felt this team was much better than that. 

I’ve heard that Moore has expressed his thoughts that 2019 would be the real difficult year in the rebuild. Sorry. A difficult year in the process to get back to the postseason. I’m not sure why he necessarily targeted 2019. Truthfully, last season and each of the next two or three look to be lean. The Process can be accelerated through savvy drafting and smart international scouting, two things Moore mentioned, but the Royals lost a lot of talent and that makes the climb back all the more challenging.

Moore issued a bit of a mea culpa when it comes to the current state of the team.

I think one of our frustrations and one of my failures, and many failures truthfully, is the fact that we are where we are. So the focus of this next era of Royals baseball, we want to put together a winning team and then win for a long time. I’m not saying we’ll make the playoffs every year, but we want to play winning baseball. Championship caliber baseball. I like the fact that we played that way in the second half, but we want to win more consistently.

It’s a goal we can all get behind.

Of course the not-rebuild still means there is a lot of focus on the minor leagues. The best system in the history of whatever was used to launch the franchise to back to back pennants. That meant the minors need a little extra TLC to get it back to where it once was. That remains a goal and Moore is pleased with the progress that was made during the year.

It’s a lot better now (the minor league system) than it was at the beginning of the season. It’s hard necessarily to quantify that, but I like the fact that we have a lot more depth with pitching than we did at the beginning of the year obviously with the draft picks, the trades that we made as well… Internationally, I think we’re doing much, much better. I’m excited about our commitment to the Eastern Rim. I think we’re positioned really well to make sure our farm system is rebuilt to a level that is acceptable and that can produce championship, winning caliber players. 

I feel really good about where we are. We’re not where we want to be. We’re going to need to get a lot better if we’re going to play in postseason, but I think the foundation is here for us to go forward.

Obviously, most of that talent is in the low minors. Moore says not to expect them to fast-track players. 

I think it’s going to be really important we stay even more patient. I think we were probably a little too aggressive the first time around with maybe pushing players. Not changing the expectations, because the expectations as we know is what drives results. And so our expectations are always going to be very, very high for our players. 

So for example, we don’t like to see a lot of strikeouts with our players at the minor league level. We don’t want to see high strikeouts for guys we think are going to be on base guys and hit in the middle of the order and play the type of style we need to play in order to win in our ballpark. And so we may not be as aggressive with promoting them in the minor leagues until they cut their strikeout rates by 10 or 15 percent let’s say. Don’t hold me to that, but that’s just an example. 

I dig this because it’s always valuable when you get an on the record quote about a detail of organizational philosophy. Of course, we’ve known all along the Royals value contact. It’s just fascinating to hear Moore talk in some depth about this. Sorry, fans of Frank Schwindel. He cut his strikeout rate by four percent last year (from 16.7 percent to 12.8 percent) and still couldn’t get the call to The Show.

Moore specifically named Seuly Matias (34.8 percent strikeout rate last year in Single-A Lexington), Nick Pratto (27.9 percent) and MJ Melendez (30.3 percent) as players who they want to see cut their whiff rate. 

If they’re going to strike out, the Royals want to make damn sure the players they have are athletes who like to compete and are good teammates. Again, we’ve heard this before from Moore. It’s important to him and will guide him and his staff going forward. Moore admitted that they have to have the talent to play baseball as well. Duh. Let’s hope he can find players who fit this magical combination.

At least Ned Yost will be returning. Moore is pleased because of the harmony they share. Moore noted they both hold the same beliefs on how you build a team, maintain an organization and the importance of the things it takes to win.

I’m excited Ned is going to be back for the 2019 season. We’ve always just left it kind of year to year since we won the World Series just because it takes so much commitment and energy to go through the major league season.

As I’ve written before, this makes sense. Yost has managed for a long time and has accomplished everything one would hope to accomplish as a big league manager. He has nothing left to prove and managing a club that is not-rebuilding can become a bit of a chore. You could see it wear on him in the middle part of the year, but the improved second half provided Yost with a bit of positive energy. He’s back and everyone has the flexibility that is inherent in a short-term commitment. It’s a happy front office and manager.

For the most part, it sounds like Yost will be managing most of the same crew that closed out the 2018 season. 

I feel like there won’t be a lot of turnover… A lot of change… A lot of adding to that group. We’re prepared to go forward with them.

Moore mentioned two points of emphasis going forward. One, they need to build an elite farm system. And two, they need to get the major league payroll under control so the Royals are in a better position in 2020 and ’21 and beyond. He says everything will be viewed through those two objectives.

In other words, don’t expect the Royals to make any kind of interesting moves this winter. With over $67 million committed to five players and a rumored projected payroll set somewhere around $90 million (no one at the press conference asked Moore about next year’s payroll, which is really poor form) the organization will go bargain hunting when adding to the roster. The bullpen is an obvious area of need and Moore mentioned they would look into some reclamation projects. They’ve had success in the past with Ryan Madson and Joe Blanton. The Royals will look for another arm or two with some rebound potential.

And when it comes to the relief corps, Moore wouldn’t dismiss the idea of moving starters Danny Duffy or Ian Kennedy to the bullpen. Of course, Duffy has done it before. Kennedy has only made two appearances in relief in his career. Both are interesting candidates, but rotation depth figures to once again be rather thin. I’d wager they will open the year as starters. I won’t wager that they will still be in the rotation when next September rolls around.

It was a freewheeling conversation, lasting over 50 minutes and touched on topics such as analytics and how the Royals mesh the data with scouting, the importance of the team in the community and, as you’ve probably heard, Luke Heimlich. I’m not sure why the Heimlich question came up again, but Moore once again stated his belief in Heimlich as a person and a ballplayer. Why Moore feels the need to answer that question, only he can say. The smart move would be to deflect. Heimlich isn’t in the organization, after all. After the firestorm that kicked up last summer after the draft, not saying anything would have been the smart thing to do.

And now the winter is truly upon us in Kansas City. Half of the World Series is set. The GM meetings are next month. The winter meetings are about eight weeks away. Pitchers and catchers report in four months. Thanks for spending the season with us at BP Kansas City. It’s an honor when you make us part of your daily Royals routine.

Keep clicking. We’ll keep writing.

Despite protestations from the manager that he hadn’t thought about or discussed his future with the Royals, it was clear the two sides wouldn’t let this drag out beyond the final out of the regular season. The Royals wanted Yost back. Yost wanted to return. He’s already the sixth-highest paid manager in the game. His tenure with the team and accomplishments will keep him near the top of the managerial fiscal pyramid, so there was likely little haggling over salary. The negotiation took, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reported, all of two minutes. 

The pain of April and May eventually gave way to the promise of September. With the Royals playing close to .500 baseball over the season’s second half and with the necessary injection of youth once the veterans were shipped off, it wasn’t a surprise Yost found himself wanting another crack. He’s built teams before. It’s a process he enjoys. The Royals are still in the early part of their rebuild, but it’s not difficult to be enthused by what he saw over the season’s last couple of months.

Besides, knowing Yost the way we have come to know him over these years in Kansas City, it’s not his style to leave things undone. He came back for 2018 knowing his core would be scattered, but it wouldn’t be right to leave the cupboard bare for a new skipper. He returns for 2019 knowing positive steps have been made, but there is still plenty of work to be done. Should Yost decide to cede the reigns, he won’t do so until he’s convinced the club is firmly on the right path and his right successor is picked out.

For the Royals, the idea of bringing back Yost has always been the right move. Moore pointed to it in his comments and has mentioned it before: Continuity and stability counts. The lineup of the regular season finale featured just two players – Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar – who were regulars on the World Championship team. And with the baseball gods willing, Escobar won’t be back with the team next year. With an expected cut in payroll forthcoming, there won’t be a ton of moves to be made this winter when it comes to making additions to the roster. The 2019 Royals will probably look a lot like the version we saw this month. This group heads into the winter with the knowledge their leader will be back. The building, and hopefully the progress, will continue. 

It turns out Yost is the right manager at the right time for these Royals.

While the sabermetricians and the old school baseball fans are the Jets and the Sharks of 21st century baseball, both fail spectacularly when it comes to assessing the impact of a manager. In-game management is just one skill; don’t overlook the intangibles. Yost is as good as they come at handling a clubhouse. He’s managed damn near every type of club imaginable, and usually done so with success. 

There are the usual managerial peccadilloes that we have become used to over the years. Those aren’t going away. There will be odd lineups, questionable bullpen matchups, and bizarre in game strategies. But what goes on behind the scenes, off the field, it often more important. Yost is a player’s manager who has always commanded his clubhouse. Players enjoy a certain amount of freedom and respect Yost enough to rarely, if ever, to cross the line. And Yost’s respect across the game has only increased after the back to back pennants. Players like playing for Yost. They want to play for him. There’s currency in that. 

Ultimately, that’s why Dayton Moore wants Yost back. The continuity is nice and all, but Yost, at least behind the scenes, is a great manager. Yes, great. He may not be around the next time the Royals reach the promised land of postseason baseball, but if everything goes according to plan, the next time a flag goes up beyond the left field fence, Yost will have played a part in that team’s foundation.

Not a bad little idea Ned had. That’s actually the kind of Nedism that probably earned him at least one more year at the helm, as his extension was announced prior to game 162, Sunday afternoon. Rather than another start to put an exclamation point on an exemplary season for Brad Keller, who had nothing left to prove, Yost instead put Skoglund on the mound against the division champs and said, “Let’s see it.”

Even though it didn’t result in a win—and I can’t recount how many times I’ve typed something to that effect this year—it gave Skoglund a nice end to the campaign and provided another building block, however slight, as the franchise seeks to frame up the future.

‘Twas an auspicious beginning for the Royals. Skoglund booted a Francisco Lindor bouncer to open the game and of course, Lindor made him pay with a steal of second, a steal of third and of course, coming across to score when Alcides Escobar failed to haul in Meibrys Viloria’s throw.

Good old Esky, one more rancid play in a season full of them. There will always be 2015.

Lindor led off the third with a homer in the third but the Royals broke through in the fifth. Brian Goodwin led off with a single, stole second and moved to third on Escobar’s groundout. Brett Phillips walked and then Viloria singled to score Goodwin.

That’s more or less the things that happened, baseball-wise, that you probably care about—Ryan O’Hearn made a nice diving stop in the second inning—but two moments stood out. In the eighth, Whit Merrifield singled, swiped second and moved to third on a throwing catcher by Eric Haase. He locked up the MLB lead in hits (192) and steals (45)—the seventh player in MLB history to do that—and will enter next season with a 20-game hit streak intact.

In the ninth, with two outs and a runner on first, Escobar stepped to the plate. Hero, goat, All-Star, sub-replacement player—Esky has worn many hats over his Kansas City career. He received a well-deserved ovation and as I was thinking, “Boy, a walk-off homer would be the perfect cap to his career,” he hit a little dribbler to the mound and like that, his tenure—and the 2018 season for the Kansas City Royals—came to a close.

Your Tweet of Despair

About Esky’s last game as a Royal… anybody else able to confirm this? Because it’s too terrifying to contemplate.

Esky isn’t done. Dayton basically just said on #Royals radio in so many words there is an excellent chance Esky will be back in utility role.

— Chris (@bballkansas) September 30, 2018

The Bright Spot: Merrifield finished the season as the big-league leader in hits and stolen bases. Please stop the “Trade Whit!” narrative; he’s worth more to the Royals than to anyone else. Remember when he wasn’t an All-Star? That was stupid.

The Nadir: No Royals baseball for six months. While the losing got old after a while*, baseball is fun. Baseball is fun and good to watch and little moments like Whit Merrifield getting a standing O as much for surviving as anything else make the day-in, day-out drudgeries worth it.

*- It got old after about six games.

The Next Step: 2019. What will it hold? Promise, if September was any indication. Maybe they’ll lose 100 games again, but they won’t do it in the same soul-crushing fashion they seemed content to do in April, May and June. Until then, thanks for reading me roughly half the time. Clint, David and the other dudes will be around all offseason, and I’ll hop in from time to time to give my opinion about whatever happens. Adieu.