Blue Jays Vitals

Royals vs. Blue Jays

Offense

Pitching

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday – 7:15 pm

Sean Reid-Foley’s first big start comes against the Royals, which has historically been bad news for the boys in blue. Reid-Foley was a top-100 prospect across the board prior to the 2017 season after being drafted in the second round in 2014. It was a rough year for him as a 21-year old in AA, but his second go-round was much better and he’s been very good in AAA. He throws hard, getting it into the upper-90s at times, but sitting a bit lower. When he’s on, his curve and slider both are big weapons and his delivery makes it so righties struggle against him when he’s throwing strikes. They’re hitting .178/.251/.248 against him, so that definitely corroborates that. Lefties didn’t exactly light him up in the minors, but they hit him much better, so the Royals would be well served to get their lefty-heavy lineup in there against him.

One of the few bright spots for the Royals this year gets the ball in this one. He had a mixed bag in his last start. He gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings, but he got more swings and misses than he had in many of his starts and generally pitched with trouble very well, which is something he’d struggled with at times in the past, not all that uncommon for a young pitcher. Keller faced the Blue Jays twice while the Royals were in Toronto and actually didn’t look great against them, but it was pretty early on in his big league career back in April. He gave up a run on four hits over two-thirds of an inning in two appearances.

Tuesday – 7:15 pm

Borucki is a 15^th round pick from 2012 in his first big league season and he’s done quite well on the surface. His FIP matches well with his ERA, but he’s also allowed six unearned runs in his 48 innings pitched, so things are a little shinier than they appear. He has a pretty limited repertoire with fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball averages about 92 and can really move when he’s on. One thing that is worth noting is that he really throws his slider for strikes more than I feel like is usual, so that’s probably part of the reason that righties have hit him better than lefties this season. A couple things indicate that he might be due for some regression. One is that his strand rate is a bit low at 69.7 percent, which isn’t that low, but he also has allowed a .233/.288/.283 line with runners in scoring position compared with .275/.315/.441 with nobody on. Something likely has to give there. He’s also given up a home run on just 1.9 percent of fly balls. He’s had a really nice start to his career, but I don’t think this will continue. It might against the Royals because they’re bad, but some team is going to be the one to knock him back to reality.

Speaking of regression, it’s bound to come for Fillmyer. A 21 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.1 innings isn’t exactly what dreams are made of. But you can’t take away what’s happened and what’s happened is he’s been really good when he throws his slider with a 33.3 percent whiff rate. His curve has also been a great weapon for him with a .182 average allowed and no extra base hits. The sample is small but good for him. If he doesn’t start to strike more batters out, this is going to come crashing down because he just doesn’t have good enough stuff to assume he’s going to keep getting weak contact, but Fillmyer is exactly what this season and next are for, so let’s find out what he is.

Wednesday – 7:15 pm

Finally the Royals get to face a veteran. Estrada has had two straight subpar seasons. This year, his strikeout rate has dropped back down to previous levels while he’s actually allowing some hits for the second straight year. In all likelihood, age is just catching up to him, but it’s disappointing to see a guy like him who seemed to defy the peripherals for so long. He’s really a fastball/changeup guy still, and even though the changeup isn’t bad, it’s not what it once was. The real issue for him has been his fastball, on which he’s allowed a .257 average with a slugging percentage of .535. For a pitch he throws about half the time, that’s a problem. He’s sort of the opposite of Borucki in that he’s been way better with the bases empty than with runners in scoring position and men on in general. And this probably isn’t too surprising given that he’s mostly a two-pitch pitcher, but he’s allowed a .344/.374/.720 line the third time through, so either the Blue Jays get him out or the Royals get a chance to actually score some late runs.

Burch Smith is scheduled to start this game for some reason. It’s likely because there aren’t really many other options, but at the same time, there have to be other options, right? Since his magical night against the Tigers when he picked up his first win in five years, he’s gone 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in three starts spanning 10.2 innings. He’s walked six, struck out and given up five home runs. In all honestly, a 13.50 ERA seems way lower than I would have guessed. I don’t really have much else to say other than sorry if you have tickets.

Thursday – 7:15 pm

The Royals released Gaviglio in spring training when they had a 40-man roster crunch, and he’s been a solid piece for the Blue Jays, though the magic has mostly run out. After throwing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in early June, he’s made 12 starts and gone 54.2 innings with a  6.09 ERA. He’s allowed 70 hits in that time, so he’s pretty much been the old Gaviglio with one exception – he’s striking hitters out for some reason. He’s also been outstanding at home and a complete disaster on the road with an ERA of 8.10 and a .304/.361/.500 line allowed. If you have to wait for the third time to get to Estrada, it only takes one time to get to Gaviglio. He goes from an OPS of .588 the first time through the order to .985 the second time through and .886 the third time. He amazingly hasn’t faced any current Royals, which I guess isn’t that surprising, but it surprised me anyway.

Sparkman gets to make his first big league start in place of the injured Danny Duffy in this one. When I saw him in spring training, I thought he had an opportunity to be an intriguing middle reliever with maybe eighth inning arm upside, but he was stretched out in his last outing in relief of Smith and pitched pretty well before he ran out of gas in his fifth inning of work. He ended up throwing 68 pitches, so he should probably be good for 75 or so in this one before the bullpen is needed, but it’ll be intriguing to see him get his shot after looking pretty solid (3.77 ERA in 14.1 innings) since his rough debut against the Red Sox.

Man, four games between two teams that aren’t really worried about 2018 seems like it could be a really rough four games of baseball. I’ll say the two teams split only because, well, does it really matter?

Let’s take a look at the options in the order I think they’ll slot in the rotation, with their PECOTA projection highlighted:

Danny Duffy (137 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 116 K, 49 BB, 1.2 WARP)
I’ll bet on Duffy to beat that projection. He’s had his share of injury issues in the past, but I think he can get past the innings and he hasn’t had an ERA that high since his rookie season. No, Duffy hasn’t become a true ace yet, though he can look like one for stretches. Over the last four seasons and change, he’s thrown 636.1 innings with a 3.41 ERA and 3.84 FIP. Since re-entering the starting rotation in 2016, he’s thrown 308 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 8.7 SO/9 and 2.3 BB/9 while allowing just 289 hits. Duffy may not be a “true ace” but he’s very good.

Ian Kennedy (180 IP, 5.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 153 K, 72 BB, -0.6 WARP)
That’s not a good projection for the guy who probably opens the season as the number two. He’s not exactly a fan favorite and he comes by the projection honestly after his horrific season in 2017, but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion he’ll be that bad. Keep in mind that from 2014-2016, he threw 565 innings with a 3.84 ERA and 4.10 FIP while striking out a batter per inning. He’s into his 30s now, so let’s not pretend like he couldn’t have just completely fallen off a cliff, but I think there’s something to the hamstring injury sabotaging his 2017. Kennedy’s potential for continued implosion is a big reason why the depth is so important, but if the rotation is actually going to be good in 2018, the Royals will need Kennedy to be 2016 and April 2017 version.

Jason Hammel (165 IP, 5.07 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 126 K, 59 BB, 0.1 WARP)
Hammel’s season is probably contingent on him getting out of games before he can implode, which given the bullpen options seems risky to bet on that. In 2017, he was a more than serviceable three or four starter the first two times through the order before getting pulverized the third time. If he’s left in consistently to face a lineup a third time, these projections might be about right. I think he’ll start the year as the third starter, but will be the worst starter in the rotation when it’s all said and done. While the projections aren’t great for anyone, Hammel is the one I’m least confident in that he can beat them.

Jake Junis (131 IP, 5.10 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 114 K, 43 BB, 0.1 WARP)
Junis is probably the guy, second to Duffy, who I think is most likely to beat the projection. After getting demoted following a rough start in July, he came back in August and threw 62.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with just nine walks. If he does that over a full season, the Royals are in business. I think I’d expect a little bit worse, but the control is for real and that slider can be downright nasty when he’s on. No, he’s not an ace and he’s likely not a number two even, but a quality number three is worth something, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA is a full run lower than the projection and the counting stats are considerably better as well.

Nate Karns (131 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 130 K, 53 BB, 1.5 WARP)
PECOTA projects Karns as the Royals best starter in 2018, which wouldn’t shock me all that much, I guess. But I’m also a bigger Karns fan than most. Of course, he’s coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery and his health has always been a question. He showed flashes in May before getting hurt of what he’s capable of, throwing 22.1 innings in four starts with a 2.01 ERA, 32 strikeouts and just four walks. If you could guarantee me he’d make 25 starts, I’d say there’s a good bet he’d end up as the Royals best starter, but that’s just not a guarantee you can make with Karns. The strikeout and walk rate seem about right, but I think if he’s good to go, the WHIP will be lower because I think he’s harder to hit than that, so I’d bet on him beating the projections by a bit. Even if he can only give 15-18 starts, the Royals will be better for them, provided he’s recovered sufficiently from the surgery.

Jesse Hahn (73 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58 K, 30 BB, 0.7 WARP)
Hahn is projected to spend a fair amount of time in the bullpen by PECOTA, and I think he will, but I think he’ll get some starting opportunity if he’s any good, with a lot of question marks in terms of injuries ahead of him. He’s the sixth starter, and it wasn’t long ago that he was looked at as a very solid middle of the rotation piece. Injuries have derailed him, but you have to wonder how good the rotation could be if Hahn was used in tandem with Hammel. The sinker will play for Hahn, and if he’s healthy, I think there’s a good chance he bounces back. If nothing else, the stuff should play up in the bullpen to make him an interesting candidate. I’m not sure why, but I think Hahn either way beats his projection or he’s way worse. The in between wouldn’t be the worst thing, so maybe Royals fans should hope for that.

Trevor Oaks (31 IP, 4.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 25 K, 10 BB, 0.2 WARP)
I think Oaks is probably the seventh starter on this team, which is a big improvement over Eric Skoglund from last season. I didn’t mind the trade of Scott Alexander to get him because I like Oaks as a middle to backend starter. His ground ball tendencies should play well, but I worry a bit that he might throw a few too many strikes given that his stuff isn’t elite and big league hitters will be able to do damage against him. I think he spends much more time in the big leagues than the projections, but I’d say the rates are probably about right.

Eric Skoglund (73 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 60 K, 25 BB, 0.1 WARP)
Sam Gaviglio (52 IP, 5.32 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 39 K, 19 BB, -0.1 WARP)
Miguel Almonte (61 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 59 K, 27 BB, 0.3 WARP)
If these guys are starting a lot of games, the season is off the rails. Of course, they’re already only projected for 66 wins, so how on the rails was it to start? I think if any of them are your eighth or ninth starters, you’re probably fine, but, again, you don’t want to get to them too often.

Kyle Zimmer (25 IP, 5.56 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 25 K, 12 BB, -0.1 WARP)
PECOTA projected Zimmer to get starts. I just found that funny.

And that’s it. The rotation has some depth and has some opportunity to beat projections and, I think, actually be pretty good. Some things need to fall in place for that to happen, so it’s far from a guarantee, but if you’re looking for a strength on a projected 66-96 team, it may possibly be in the rotation.

White Sox Vitals

White Sox vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

White Sox Projected Lineup

The Matchups

Friday

You can’t question the stuff for Lopez, but you can easily see why he might be better as a short reliever. He’s gone at least six innings in his four September starts, but he just hasn’t been that good. He’s struck out just four in his last three starts over 19 innings. He’s also walked only four, but that’s just not going to get it done in the long run. This will be his third time facing the Royals in seven starts for the White Sox, so that’s an interesting twist as well. He’s given up five runs on 12 hits over 12 innings in the first two starts, both White Sox wins.

Lopez is a three-pitch pitcher. He uses his four-seam fastball about 61 percent of the time and it comes in at around 95 mph with movement at times, but it can straighten out. He also has a changeup and a curve, which have both been interesting this year. The changeup can be nasty, but when it flattens out, it gets hit quite hard with a .306 ISO allowed. The Royals actually do okay against changeups, in spite of the popular narrative, so if he doesn’t have it, that could be good for them. Plus, we also know that Mike Moustakas has had success against him and it looks like he might be feeling a lot better after hitting the ball well in Toronto and finally breaking the team home run record. Lopez has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched he set last season, which I wouldn’t really note other than that he had his lowest average fastball velocity of the season in his last start. It was still plenty, but it’s worth watching.

This won’t go down as Hammel’s best season ever, but if he goes seven, he’ll set his career high for innings pitched. For a really long stretch of games, Hammel was everything he was supposed to be, but he’s fallen off badly over his last two starts, giving up 12 runs in 9.1 innings. One of those starts was against these very White Sox, going just 3.1 innings and giving up five runs. Is he worn down or is this just a blip? I guess that’s the question right now. With his history of second half struggles, I’d tend to bet on the former, but the Royals need him to be the good ol’ six inning, three run Hammel in this one.

Saturday

The White Sox picked Covey in the Rule 5 draft this past winter and he’ll make it the whole season on the big league roster, but he is decidedly not yet a big league pitcher. He comes by his 8.18 ERA honestly with 33 strikeouts, 31 walks, 18 homers allowed and 74 total hits allowed in 58.1 innings. He may someday be something, but right now, this is a pitcher the Royals should hit and hit hard.

He is a four-seam and two-seam guy, averaging about 92-93 mph on each, with some decent enough movement on the two-seamer. Neither pitch is worrisome to an opponent, but when he’s on he’ll get some grounders. He also has a cutter, curve and changeup. I’m curious to see how Don Cooper can help him refine the cutter to see if he can turn him into something with it because there are very occasional flashes of a plus pitch. On the whole, it’s been destroyed along with really everything but his changeup. But in watching him a few times, you see the occasional good cutter and know that Cooper is up to something. The lack of stuff is really a problem for him. I mentioned the strikeout numbers, but it’s really even more jarring when you see that he’s allowed a .286 average and .554 slugging percentage when he’s ahead in the count. It’s way worse when he’s behind, but to give up that kind of contact when he has the advantage says all that needs to be said.

Duffy will get a few more pitches to work with in his second start back from the disabled list. He was good against Cleveland in his last outing, striking out eight and walking nobody over five innings. He also gave up just one hit, but it was unfortunately a two-run homer after a Whit Merrifield error. He now has five straight starts with at least seven strikeouts. If you want to be concerned, he’s allowed 17 runs in 16 innings against the White Sox this season, but I think he has a chance to do realy well in this one.

Sunday

The difference between Giolito’s ERA and DRA is pretty striking to me. Part of it is that he’s allowed a .186 BABIP with a fair amount of hard contact to go along with a lot of homers, not a ton of strikeouts and a nearly 90 percent strand rate. But the other part of it is sample size. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle with Giolito. The White Sox seem to be getting him back to what made him a top prospect, which is scary for the rest of the AL Central, but I also think he can be beaten.

He relies heavily on a four-seam fastball that averages about 93 mph. It sure seems to have much more movement than it did last season when I saw him pitch a few times. He also has a changeup, slider, curve and the occasional sinker. The fastball is the interesting pitch to me as he’s allowed a .194 average on it, but has allowed a .508 slugging percentage thanks to six home runs in just 67 at bats that ended on the pitch. If the Royals are going to get to Giolito, it’s probably going to be because Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas and Melky Cabrera got to him. Those three all have a better than .500 SLG against four-seamers from right-handed pitchers this season. Other guys like Brandon Moss and Eric Hosmer have had success as well, but those three have been the best, so they’re the best bets to get it done. The other thing to keep in mind is not to worry if the Royals don’t get to him early. Giolito has allowed a .432 OPS the first time through the order and then .877 the second time. Patience is a virtue here.

Gaviglio has been good for the Royals in his three games. He’s shown solid control and kept the ball in the yard, which is an issue he had with the Mariners. I’m not quite sure how he’s doing it, which has me worried in a park where mistakes don’t get forgiven. He did get the win against the White Sox in Kansas City by going five innings and giving up two runs with five strikeouts and no walks. I’m sure the Royals would gladly take that on Sunday.

The Royals really need to sweep this series, and I think they can, but I don’t think they will. The starting pitching just concerns me too much to make me think they’ll actually do it. I think they take two of three, which keeps them alive into the final week of the season, but unless the Tigers somehow get some wins this weekend, the two of three won’t be enough.

To sum up: Blah, blah, blah.

Monday was quiet on the Royals front. Too quiet for a Monday in September. But really, at this point is there any need to make any noise? Yeah, we can debate the merits of a six-man rotation, but when 25 percent of that rotation is actually worthy of our attention (talking Jake Junis and a pitch count-limited Danny Duffy, if you were wondering), that’s not exactly interesting or fun to discuss. There could have been news regarding the mystery starter on Tuesday, but do we really care if it’s Ian Kennedy and his balky shoulder or newcomer Sam Gaviglio?

Perhaps the news is that Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain will return to the starting nine for the first game of the series in Toronto after a day off on Sunday. Perhaps a moderately fresh trio can propel the club on a mini-run of success. It’s doubtful that 72 hours (or in the case of Moustakas more like 50) can heal all that ails the key of the Royals core. As Ned Yost and company have made painfully aware over the last couple of weeks, time is short. The luxury to heal and recover from injuries is past.

Or maybe the news is the Royals playoff odds have cratered to just 1.1 percent, losing almost five percentage points in the last week. The odds are the odds are the odds. You don’t need percentages to know the Royals are on thin playoff ice. The standings will suffice.

So here we are. Baseball purgatory.

As discussed in this space yesterday, the Royals are all but eliminated. Yet, as long as they remain alive, even by the slimmest of margins, these games remain important. At least that’s what I’m telling myself. There’s no way I’m adequately prepared for winter at this point.

The Yankees hosted the Twins on Monday in what could have been billed as a Wild Card preview. Minnesota entered the game four games back from the first Wild Card position, so even the idea that the outcome of Monday’s game meant something seemed a little tenuous. The usual cold, impersonal and sparse crowd at the new Yankee Stadium didn’t necessarily vibe playoffs, either.

It was a drab 2-1 ballgame. Aaron Judge smashed his 44th home run in the first. The Twins had the bases loaded with one out in the eighth and couldn’t push the tying run across. Aroldis Chapman dialed his fastball up to 104 mph to record the final out of the game and pad the Yankee lead to five games.

Who cares? I probably should have included a disclaimer ahead of that paragraph that you may be bored enough to click away. The only other game with postseason implications was in Baltimore where the Orioles blew a five run lead and lost 10-8 in extras. They, like the Royals (and the Rays and the Rangers) remain stuck on 73 wins. Holy mediocrity. Seriously, is anyone worthy of the second Wild Card spot?

These pennant races are anticlimactic. Cleveland and Houston have clinched. New York and Boston are battling for the East, but both teams are pretty much assured of making the tournament. That leaves the increasingly humdrum race for the second Wild Card as our only entertainment over these last two weeks of the regular season. That’s not enough. What a bust this season has turned out to be.

On Monday the goalposts moved a bit (if I may mix my sports metaphors) in the Twins loss to the Yankees. The Royals elimination number remains nine, which means the earliest they can be eliminated shifts back a day to Saturday. It may be simply delaying the inevitable at this point, but when the option is six months void of baseball, I’ll hold on to that 1.1 percent sliver of hope. Even if it only buys an extra day.

White Sox Vitals

White Sox vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

White Sox Projected Lineup

The Matchups

Monday

The Royals will get their second shot at Lopez, who made his White Sox debut against KC a few weeks ago. He has shown in his brief time with the White Sox what made him so attractive to them. He throws hard. He gets strikeouts. He looks like he could be a guy who could be really good. He’s also shown a little of why he’s not a future ace and some believe he’s a reliever long term. He walks a few too many and is susceptible to the home run. He kind of showed all that in his first start against the Royals, allowing two runs in six innings with six strikeouts, three walks and two home runs allowed.

Lopez throws his fastball quite a bit and it’s a big one, averaging about 95 mph, but with the ability to hit even higher than that. He also throws a changeup that flashes plus potential and a curve. The changeup has been responsible for three of the four home runs he’s allowed, but he’s also given up a .160 average on it, so there’s good and bad. With young players who haven’t really experienced a six-month season, you have to start to wonder if they wear down this time of year. He threw 153.1 innings last season and is at 143.1 this year, so that probably shouldn’t be an issue. He’s had an interesting split in his four starts, coming out of the gates looking great before stumbling his second time through the order and then getting back on track the third time. Remember those two home runs he allowed against the Royals? They were both to Mike Moustakas, so that gives some hope that the now gimpy slugger could finally break the record.

Speaking of wearing down, Jason Hammel has had some second half struggles in recent seasons, and his 161.2 innings is just five shy of last season’s total and 16 short of his career high. For the Royals to have a shot, he’ll need to match the former. He can achieve the latter in his next couple of starts. He’s coming off a typical solid start against the Tigers, going six innings and giving up two runs. He’s gone at least six innings in nine of his last 12 starts and hasn’t thrown less than five since May. Somehow he hasn’t faced the White Sox yet this season.

Weather: 76°, Wind NE 3-6 MPH, Sunny/Clear, 0% Precipitation

Tuesday

Dylan Covey is, well, not good. He doesn’t strike anyone out and he walks too many. He allows a ton of hits and has given up 17 home runs in his 49 innings. He’s faced the Royals twice this season, but he hasn’t made a start since May. He gave up eight runs in 10.2 innings against the Royals in his two starts. In his six relief appearances since getting pushed out of the rotation, he’s given up 10 runs in 11.1 innings for a 7.94 ERA, so it’s been an improvement.

He throws a four-seam fastball and a sinker at about 92-93 mph that he mixes with a cutter, curve and the occasional changeup and slider. Since it’s mostly hard stuff, it’s kind of tough for him to slow down or speed up hitter’s bats, which is a big reason why he doesn’t get many swings and misses. He’s allowed a .405 average and .811 slugging percentage on his cutter, so that’s a pitch the Royals should be sitting on if they can. It’s not like the other pitches are so good they have to avoid them, but that cutter is not good at all. Sitting on the cutter could be good news for Lorenzo Cain who has hit .444 on them, but Eric Hosmer has hit just .250, so maybe he’d do well to hold out for the four-seamer. Hosmer did hit a homer off Covey earlier this year, as did Jorge Bonifacio.

Gaviglio’s Royals debut was a success after he went five innings and gave up just one run. If we’re being honest, he wasn’t that good, but after watching guys like Onelki Garcia and Eric Skoglund get absolutely lit up, it was a nice change. He did face the White Sox once this year, going five shutout innings against them in mid-May when he was with the Mariners. The lineup then included Melky Cabrera and Todd Frazier, but maybe he can repeat that performance.

Just a reminder, due to the U2 concert at Arrowhead, this game is now being played at noon.

Weather: 77°, Wind NNE 5-10 MPH, Mostly Sunny, 0% Precipitation

Wednesday

Giolito was one of the prize returns for Adam Eaton in their deal with the Nationals this winter, and he’s been solid in his first four starts with the White Sox. Like Lopez, he made his debut last year with the Nationals, but things have gone much better this time around. He’s getting strikeouts and his control has been quality. He’s allowed just 15 hits in his 25.1 innings, but five of them have gone for home runs. The big difference for him this season, at least in the small sample, is that his fastball has been way more effective this time around.

It’s not as big a fastball as I expected it would be, but he still throws it at about 93 mph with potential for more when he needs it. He also uses a changeup, slider and curve. The curve is the pitch that he gets a lot of contact on, but it’s still been decent for him so far this season. I mentioned innings with Lopez, and the same applies for Giolito. He threw 136.2 innings last year in a career high and is now at 154 this season. He’s potentially getting to a point where he could hit a wall. It would be great for the Royals if it happened during this start. At 6’6”, he gives right-handed hitters some trouble, but lefties have hit him well this year with a .266/.336/.493 line between the majors and minors. That could mean good things for the Royals considering the fact that the big power in the lineup is almost exclusively left-handed.

Eric Skoglund will get the start in place of Ian Kennedy, who is battling a sore hamstring. Realistically, Skoglund shouldn’t be pitching for a team hoping to land a playoff spot, but times are tough in the Royals rotation. Since his fantastic debut against the Tigers, Skoglund has made three starts and they’ve lasted a combined 4.2 innings in which he’s allowed 13 runs on 18 hits with four strikeouts and six walks. The White Sox are less than good offensively, but him pitching in a day game with Jose Abreu on the prowl makes me very concerned for this one.

Weather: 81°, Wind NE 3-6 MPH, Sunny, 0% Precipitation

Like I said above, the Royals need to sweep this series. The problem is that as bad as the White Sox are, I think the Royals are just running on fumes with all their injuries, and that’ll make it tough to get what they need. I fear that one of these starters will shut down the offense while one of the Royals starters will implode, especially with how hot Abreu is lately. My guess is the Royals win two of three, and the hope is that the rest of the Wild Card contenders struggle to the point that two of three is enough to keep them close.

• As much as it seems sometimes that the Royals have no shot at the postseason, they’re still well within the playoff race. Still, I find my mind wandering toward next season a lot and I think about what the Royals need to remain competitive, which I’m sure they will attempt to do rather than rebuild. We can have the argument another day regarding whether or not that’s the correct decision, but if they do continue to try to remain competitive, one thought I have is to move one of their best players this season to a new position. Yes, that’s right. I would have great interest in Whit Merrifield moving to center field to replace Lorenzo Cain. Whit is a solid defensive second baseman, but he’s not great by any stretch and he’s been a good outfielder in the past and has said that he feels center field is his best spot. That would allow the Royals to go after a veteran second baseman like a Brandon Phillips or Ian Kinsler to pair with Raul Mondesi at shortstop which would give the youngster something of a mentor as a double play partner. The risk here is that the Royals would move Merrifield to center and then just re-sign Alcides Escobar, which would be a massive mistake. I really think it could make a lot of sense for the 2018 Royals if they don’t do that.
• I’m fairly certain a Royals pitcher going five innings and giving up one run makes him the new ace of the pitching staff, so that means that Sam Gaviglio is now the Royals ace after his performance against the Twins yesterday. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get the win in the game, which I’ll get to in a minute, and that’s sort of a huge problem. Yes, wins are always important so that’s one reason why it was a huge problem, but another reason is that when you get surprising outings like the one from Gaviglio, you have to capitalize. And when you think about what they’ve gotten from that fifth starter spot over the past few starts (remember the 12-0 and 17-0 drubbings?), they simply have to take advantage of games like this when they come along. Instead, the Royals were largely held in check for a second straight game by Kyle Gibson, a pitcher they definitely should have been able to handle. That just can’t happen. There are a number of games you can look at in a season when a team narrowly misses the postseason, but this is definitely one to look back on as a game they absolutely should have won and didn’t.
• And of course, the biggest reason they didn’t win is that Kelvin Herrera once again failed to hold a lead. I’m probably the biggest Herrera apologist out there, but even I can’t really defend what he’s done most of this season. Look, I think he’s hurt. I think he’s been hurt. I think the innings he’s thrown the last few seasons have finally caught up with him and started to catch up with him last season, but that doesn’t excuse the way he’s performed all too often this season. We know about the forearm issues he’s been dealing with, and they seem to pop up after only a handful of pitches in each outing. At this point, I don’t see the reasoning of continuing to test the forearm only to have to pull him after he’s thrown 18 pitches or whatever it is. Shut him down and hope that the rest at the end of the season is enough to make him an effective pitcher again next season. The issue, of course, is who closes? It can’t be Brandon Maurer, who I’m convinced has one of the biggest gaps between stuff and ability in baseball, but that’s something to worry about later. Oh, and for those who say the Royals shouldn’t have traded Wade Davis, I’ll tell you that I’m very confident you’re wrong. He also had multiple forearm issues last season. They should have traded him for a different return, which I said at the time, but that’s another story entirely.
• I’ve seen a lot of talk about how the Royals are too reliant on the home run this season, and that’s why the offense has sputtered at times. While I don’t disagree entirely with the notion, they were actually right in the middle of the pack in terms of run scored via the home run heading into action last night. They’ve scored 42.95 percent of their runs on the home run, which is 14th in baseball and right between the Diamondbacks and Nationals, two playoff teams in the National League. Yes, the number is higher than it was last season and the year before and the year before that, but adding the power that they have is certainly not the issue with this offense. Rather, the fact that they’ve played with a black hole in the bottom third of the lineup has held them back far too often. Giving away essentially three innings every game makes it difficult to win. There are lots of culprits for when the offense struggles, but the home run ball is way down the list.

(All advanced statistics are through Tuesday’s action)

Twins Vitals

Royals vs. Twins

Offense

Pitching

Twins Projected Lineup

The Matchups

Thursday

Gibson shut the Royals down last week, but he also did so with his team up by 10 by the time he came out for the third inning of work. I’m not taking away from his performance the other day, well I sort of am, but I’m not sure it’s indicative of what Gibson really is, which is a struggling pitcher.

As we mentioned last week, he pitches with a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider and curve. All his pitches have been hit hard, but the four-seamer remains the big problem for him. That seems like a good matchup for a good fastball hitter, which means that Jorge Bonifacio should probably be sitting in this game. Of course, he probably would be anyway, but there’s at least a reason. Of all people, Paulo Orlando has absolutely dominated Gibson with eight hits in 13 at bats in his career. That’s a tiny sample size, but it’s also a really impressive stat line. Mike Moustakas could have an opportunity to add to his home run total in this one with a .357/.438/.536 career line against Gibson as well.

Signs point to the newly acquired Gaviglio getting the nod in this one. I guess someone has to make this start in this spot in the rotation. He had his chance to make a few appearances with the Mariners and the baseball card stats weren’t awful with a 4.62 ERA and a touch under six innings per start. The stuff just isn’t there. He’s mostly a fastball/slider guy with the fastball topping out in the low-90s and averaging about 89. His slider is theoretically a decent strikeout pitch, and he does get a decent whiff percentage on it, but when it hangs, it’s very hittable. All in all, he’s an organizational arm, but that’s probably an improvement over what they’ve been running out there.

Friday

Santana is the Twins best starter, and has had a really fantastic season following a solid season a year ago. The Royals got after him a little bit on Sunday, getting four runs on eight hits against him with just two strikeouts in 6.2 innings. That was in contrast to his last seven starts where he struck out at least six each time out. If he’s not getting swings and misses, he’s susceptible to giving up hits, so that seems like a pretty big key in this one.

His repertoire hasn’t changed since Sunday. He still has a solid fastball, an excellent slider and a sinker and a changeup that work to complement his two main pitches. One of the big keys from Sunday’s game was that the Royals right-handed bats didn’t fall behind in the count and let the slider eat them up. And when they did, they were able to foul it off rather than letting it get deep enough that they swung over the top of it. Santana has been pretty mediocre at home this year, posting a 4.14 ERA in 15 starts, but on the road, he’s put up a 2.48 ERA in 13 starts and has gone 8-2. Home/road splits are weird, but that one stuck out to me. Another interesting split with Santana is that he’s very good the first time through a lineup (.592 OPS allowed) and the third time through a lineup (.661 OPS), but the second time, he allows a .280/.328/.517 line. I guess the key is get to him then because the chances will be slim otherwise.

Kennedy had his best start in awhile the last time out against the Twins. He still gave up four runs, but if not for a rare Lorenzo Cain error, he’d have likely ended up with six innings and two runs allowed. You’ll take that every time. The key is to build on that. His command has been better recently, so that’s a good sign to him pitching better. If he can be a legitimate number three starter down the stretch, the Royals might have a shot. If not, they’re in trouble.

Saturday

After a brutally bad debut season as a rookie, Berrios has shown why he was a top prospect. He’s striking guys out, limiting walks and really limiting hits. The home runs are even cut basically in half from last season. He isn’t afraid to come inside, as evidenced by his 13 hit batters this season, but he’s had a really nice sophomore season. He’s only 23, so he’ll be a problem for a long time.

Berrios throws a really lively fastball that averages about 94 MPH and a sinker that’s very similar with some serious drop to it. He mixes in a curve that can be dominant and a changeup to keep hitters honest. He’s gotten 55 strikeouts with the curve, so it’s definitely been the go to, but don’t think he can’t strike guys out with his fastball too. It’s been a heck of a swing and miss weapon. There are two ways to go after a pitcher with a pitch that can be so dominant. You can attack his other pitches or you can try to find a combination that will take the sting out of their best pitch. If the Royals choose to attack the curve, they have the horses to do it. Bonifacio has hit .435 on curves from righties while Lorenzo Cain has hit .366 and Eric Hosmer .308. Bonifacio has also slugged a robust 1.043, so he’s a must start in this one.

Junis continues to get it done for the Royals, though he did seem to hit a wall his last time out in Detroit. I don’t think he’s necessarily hitting a wall as he hasn’t even reached his career high in innings pitched, but every pitch he throws, the book on him gets a little deeper. The best part about Junis, though, is that he’s walked one batter as a starter since he came back to start the second game of that double header in early August. And he’s struck out 27 in 30 innings. The only home run he’s allowed came in a relief outing, though Alex Gordon helped him keep that alive on Monday.

Sunday

The ageless Colon gets the ball for the Twins in this one, and while his overall numbers have been lackluster, he’s been pretty good for the Twins. He’s put up a 3.94 ERA in 61.2 innings with them, but that might be a bit superficial. He’s had excellent control, but has only struck out 5.5 per nine and has allowed better than 11 hits per nine innings along with nearly two home runs every nine.

Colon is the rare pitcher who works mostly with hard stuff. His sinker is what he goes to the most and it averages about 87-88 MPH while his four-seamer comes in at around 90. He does mix in a changeup and a slider, but they’re mostly for show. Both of his big pitches have been hit very hard, so if the Royals can just get some sequencing going, they should be okay against him. Something tells me his 85.5 percent strand rate won’t last. Colon has been around forever basically, but the only Royals hitter who has seen him more than nine times is Alex Gordon. He’s hit well off him, but we can’t really glean much from that. I mentioned that strand rate for Colon, and that’s really the key to him. He’s around the strike zone a lot, so he’s hittable. The key is to make sure to stay selective when there are runners on base because he’ll give a pitch to hit at some point. With the Twins, he’s allowed a .344/.365/.649 line with the bases empty and a .235/.275/.314 line with runners on base. Something has to give there, and if the Royals can get to their contact approach, it could easily give in this game.

Of course, it may not matter because Jason Vargas has turned into a pumpkin and then some. Since ending August with a 12-3 record and a 2.22 ERA, he’s gone 2-7 with an 8.13 ERA in 11 starts, and that includes allowing 16 homers in just 52 innings. This is more than a regression to the mean. This is a guy wearing down after throwing very few innings since 2014. I don’t know what he has left, but the Royals need him here. He was great against the Twins in June, going seven innings and giving up just one run on two hits. They could use something similar here.

The Royals look like they’re running on fumes, but maybe the home air will get them back on track. I’m not optimistic, and I think they just tread water and split this series, which really isn’t enough.