The starting pitching, though, is rough. They have a lot of young arms to go along with Matt Harvey and 1-14 Homer Bailey, but they’ve all been somewhere between bad and average, so there’s a ways to go. But at least the bullpen has some promise with Raisel Iglesias at the back end.

Reds Vitals

Royals vs. Reds

Offense

Pitching

Reds Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday – 5:40 pm

The Royals get to face one of the 2015 World Series heroes in this one, though they did face him once after the World Series, so it’s not Matt Harvey’s first time seeing the Royals blue since that fateful night. Still, it’ll be fun to relive some of that Game Five magic in this one where the Royals presumably broke Harvey to the point that he was dealt to the Reds after being DFAed. He hasn’t been bad in Cincy, though, with a 4.46 ERA and a solid strikeout to walk ratio. He’s still too hittable and not nearly what he was through 2015, but he’s been serviceable. He’s had a bit of an interesting September for the Reds, posting a 4.63 ERA that’s pretty well in line with his season number, but he’s gotten a ton of whiffs while also giving up his share of homers. It’s all just sort of incongruent, but I guess that’s the story of his career lately. He just doesn’t have the same putaway stuff he used to, and when hitters go up in the count on him, they have a chance to do serious damage. He’s allowed a .462 average and .923 SLG on 1-0 counts and a .556 average and 1.500 SLG on 2-0 counts. Lefties have raked him for power with a .222 ISO, so in that ballpark, I’d expect at least four Ryan O’Hearn homers.

Skoglund has now made two starts since coming off the DL (and one relief appearance) and the results have been quite good with a total of 13 innings pitched, seven hits allowed and just two runs with only three walks. Of course, he’s also only struck out six, which isn’t good at all. I still have plenty of doubts about Skoglund long term, so it’ll be good to get to evaluate two more starts of his since the Royals have shut down Brad Keller to get him an extra one on the final day of the season. One of the most shocking Skoglund stats that I thought I’d share is that opponents are actually at their best against him when they’re behind in the count with a .318 average and .541 SLG. That can’t happen.

Wednesday – 5:40 pm

Cody Reed also has ties to the 2015 World Series squad as he was dealt in the deal for Johnny Cueto, and he’ll make his seventh start of the season against the Royals in this one. Aside from an April start, Reed had pitched out of the bullpen exclusively in the big leagues until August 30, and he’s been outstanding in his last two, going 11 innings with no runs allowed on seven hit and with 16 strikeouts against just two walks. I really liked Reed as a Royals prospect and it seems he might be starting to show off some of that potential. He works heavily with a slider, throwing it nearly 41 percent of the time since his return to the rotation, and it’s been outstanding, holding opponents to a .186 average and .279 SLG and has been responsible for 21 of his 25 strikeouts. Watch out, righties. He hasn’t faced many lefties, but he’s been basically 50/50 fastball and slider to them and they’ve crushed his fastball. Given the roster, some lefties will have to play, so they better be hunting fastballs. He does tire out quickly with his OPS allowed going from .599 in the first plate appearance to .761 in the second to a whopping 1.194 in the third. If the Royals can wait him out, they can hit him.

I continue to have no idea what to make of Fillmyer. I think his slider is big league good, but he just gets roughed up sometimes and in situations that make me wonder how he ever has good starts. But then he goes out and has some good starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his four September starts and was solid against Pittsburgh last time out. He’s actually started getting some more swings and misses, with his swinging strike rate jumping from just under six percent to just over nine percent in the second half. It’s still not quite enough, but I could see him faring very well in a swingman role on a better team. The Reds, as a team, are not exactly world class against sliders, so if he has it working, it could be another good start for him. Of course, his 7.22 road ERA makes me wonder.

Neither team is good, and I expect this series to be about whichever team is more into it. I’ll go ahead and say the Royals split it with the Reds, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Skoglund and Fillmyer both get hit around too much for the Royals offense to keep up.

Reds Vitals

Royals vs. Reds

Offense

Pitching

Reds Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Tuesday

Romano showed some promise in his rookie season to the point that you could maybe see with a tweak here or there that he could be a back of the rotation starter. He’s taken a step back this year. One of the redeeming qualities he had was that he kept the ball in the yard, which carried over from his time in AA and AAA the previous two seasons. This year, he’s allowing a lot of home runs and that’s come with his strikeout rate falling and his walk rate rising. He throws pretty hard, averaging 94-95 MPH with his fastball that he throws more than half the time. He supplements with a slider that has actually been incredibly effective. It’s accounted for the majority of his strikeouts, but it really comes back to the fastball. He’s allowed a .302 average and .554 SLG on it. His pitch mix doesn’t bode well for Jorge Soler from a volume standpoint, but on any given at bat, I could see him launching one if he gets the fastball in the right spot. Romano has been crushed by lefties (.333/.404/.543), which means there’s a good bet we see Ryan Goins in this one, if you’re looking for reasons to be disappointed. One thing to note: don’t be surprised if the Royals are swinging on the first pitch. He’s allowed a .438 average and .844 SLG on the first pitch, so it’s a good time to strike.

Kennedy against a lineup that has some guys who can mash is pretty scary. The one saving grace with Kennedy coming into the season was the hope and idea that he could at least eat some innings for the Royals, even if he was struggling. Even in one of his better starts of the last month and a half, he was only able to go five against the Angels and hasn’t pitched more than six innings at all this season. He gave up just one run over five innings in his last start, but he still has a 9.42 ERA over his last six and has pitched fewer than five innings per start in that time with 43 hits allowed in 28.2 innings. He has gotten strikeouts still at least, so there’s some hope maybe, but he just isn’t getting the whiffs he needs to be successful. He might be able to work around guys like Hamilton and Peraza in this lineup, but he’ll get punished by the Reds big bats if he continues on like he has. I still say he needs to use his changeup more, but he just doesn’t listen to me.

Wednesday

Mahle was ranked in the bottom part of both the MLB and Baseball America top 100 prospects heading into the season and has had a nice enough start to the year. While his ERA was shinier in his debut last season, he’s improved his strikeout rate and his walk rate from the small 20 inning sample last year, but has been relatively easy to hit and has allowed some home runs, which is to be expected in his home ballpark. He’s very fastball heavy, throwing it more than two-thirds of the time. He uses a slider and a changeup as well, but both have been hit quite hard this season, which might be why he leans on the fastball so much. Like Romano, lefties have been dynamite against him, hitting .286/.392/.564, but unlike Romano, he’s actually limited righties well to a hellish .666 OPS. He’s probably due for some regression, which is part of why his DRA is a fair amount above his ERA because he’s allowed a .296/.367/.526 line with the bases empty but a .186/.246/.254 line with runners in scoring position. Something has to give there. The times to get to Mahle are early (.779 OPS first time through) or a little later (1.288 OPS the third time through). I think the future is bright for him, but if the Royals are going to score some runs, they have a real shot in this series against him and Romano.

Hammel had a vintage 2017 start his last time out against Oakland, looking good for five innings before succumbing to the lineup when facing them a third time and allowing three runs in the sixth inning to sully his overall line. It doesn’t change the fact that things have been going much better for him lately since his ERA ballooned to a season-high 6.28 after his start against the Rays in mid-May. In the last four starts, he’s gone 24.1 innings, struck out 25, walked five and has posted a 2.59 ERA. He’s still allowed too many hits, but getting the strikeouts up and the walks down has helped significantly. And it’s worth mentioning that it wasn’t just the third time through the order in his last start, it was the third time through the order after facing them for six innings less than a week before. That doesn’t excuse what happened, but I’m still encouraged by Hammel lately. Like Kennedy, I worry about the Reds big bats against him, though, because even though he’s been much better, if his slider isn’t on, he could be in big time trouble.

I feel like every time I predict the outcome of a series, I can’t find a way to say the Royals win it, and that’s no fun. Sure, the likely outcome of this is that the Royals and Reds split, but what good are predictions if we don’t go on silly limbs. I say the Royals win both games this series and find a way to feel good about themselves before the Astros come to town to put them in their place.