The only wrinkle in this four-game set that is different from last weekend is that the Royals get to see their once-prized pitching prospect, Sean Manaea, take the hill for Oakland on Sunday. I’m sure nobody will be annoying about that.

Athletics Vitals

Royals vs. Athletics

Offense

Pitching

Athletics Projected Lineup

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday

Blackburn had a solid rookie campaign last year for the A’s, but has been on the disabled list all season with a forearm strain ahead of this start. He comes into it off one rehab start in AAA that went poorly with him allowing three runs on eight hits and striking out just one in 3.2 innings. The cause for A’s optimism with Blackburn is the shiny 3.22 ERA he posted, but he struck out just 22 batters in his 58.2 innings last year. He does get ground balls, though, working heavily with a sinker as well as a slider that was responsible for a good chunk of his strikeouts last year. In his short time in the big leagues, he was much better against lefties, probably because he uses a changeup a lot more against them, and it was really good against them. He faced the Royals once and they jumped on him for four runs on eight hits in four innings with three walks to only two strikeouts. It was a different team then, but I have a hunch Jorge Soler could make some very loud contact against him.

Hammel was probably asked to do a little too much in his start against the A’s on Saturday as he gave up a home run to Bruce Maxwell as the only batter he faced in the seventh that brought the A’s a little closer to the Royals. Ultimately, that probably cost him a win after the bullpen gave up another run to allow the game to get tied up before Jorge Soler’s home run gave the Royals a lead they managed to keep. The start continued a trend of solid enough performances for Hammel as he now has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts, but the troubling lack of whiffs came back in this one. After getting 13 swings and misses in each of his previous two starts, he had just four in this one, and when he’s not getting swings and misses, he’s often going to be in trouble.

Friday

Montas was the beneficiary of an offensive explosion by the A’s on Friday night against the Royals, and he was able to go eight innings to pick up his second win of the year. On Friday, he featured an impressive sinker that he threw 75 times with an average velocity of 96.3 and a max of 99.1. It was really good too. He threw 57 for strikes, but what was interesting is that he got 42 swings and just three swings and misses. While the pitch was excellent Friday, that’s a recipe for some potential bad luck hits against him. In fact, he only got seven swings and misses all game, so that’s a plus for the Royals heading into this one. The fact that Montas has never been especially good before and wasn’t great in the minors before his call-up tells me that some regression seems likely.

I thought Junis was outstanding against the A’s on Sunday, though he was a victim like Hammel of being left in a bit too long to cover for a struggling bullpen. Through seven, he had allowed just one run on four hits with nine strikeouts and one walk before allowing a run-scoring single and seeing one of his runners he left on score when Burch Smith served one up to Matt Olson. I know I mention swings and misses a lot, but Junis has had it working the last couple games with his slider looking as dirty as ever with a 21.4 percent whiff rate in his last two starts. His sinker was working very well for him on Sunday as well. I do have some of the same fears for Junis as I have hopes that Cahill will struggle when facing a team a second straight time, but if his slider is working, none of it will matter.

Saturday

Cahill got hit around a bit in his first start against his former team, which was kind of nice to see from the Royals perspective, although there was actually a fair amount to like from his performance. He struck out six in 4.2 innings and his changeup was really difficult to square up, resulting in a 26.1 percent whiff rate. I personally don’t believe Cahill’s stuff is good enough to hold up in back to back starts against the same opponent, so I have high hopes for the Royals offense in this one after getting four runs in seven hits in the first try against him. Still, though, Cahill is having a nice season, and if he can keep up his incredible pitching at home (28 IP, 17 H, 29 K, 5 BB, 0.64 ERA), he might prove me wrong and have a nice game in this one.

Duffy, after a fantastic start and an uneven start with good results threw a clunker against the Angels on Monday night that left people likely with more questions than answers. He ended up making it through five innings, which was a minor miracle given his pitch count, but he was behind in counts, couldn’t put hitters away and just generally struggled with pretty much everything he’s struggled with all season long. The encouraging thing is that after throwing 57  pitches in the first two innings, he threw 35 in the next three before starting an inning he shouldn’t have (this is a trend) and giving up a home run to the leadoff hitter that potentially cost the team a win. He’s generally pitched well against the A’s with a  3-0 record and 3.44 ERA in 36.2 innings, so as we hoped with him facing Texas, maybe his history against the team will help him to pull out a good start in this one.

Sunday

The argument for trading Manaea when the Royals did is the flag on top of the Hall of Fame. The argument against it is the state of the team today. In all, the trade worked out well for both teams. Ben Zobrist was a key contributor in a title-winning club while Manaea has turned into a dependable starter for the A’s, and has even thrown a no-hitter.

Since the start of May, though, things haven’t been as rosy for him as he has averaged just more than five innings per start with a  6.63 ERA and just 21 strikeouts in 36.2 innings with 43 hits allowed. He’s also walked 11 batters and hit six more, so he’s putting runners on base at a really high clip. His velocity on his four-seamer has dipped for the third straight year and now averages about 91-92 MPH after averaging 93+ his rookie season. It’s still incredibly effective with a .191 average against it and a .369 slugging percentage, but he’s upped his changeup usage this year. And his slider continues to be a very good pitch. It sure appears he’s in a slump right now, so the Royals ideally would take advantage of that. In his last start, he gave up just two runs over 5.1 innings, but he walked four and struck out just two while allowing two solo home runs. He faced the Royals once, during his rookie season, and went five shutout innings, allowing just three hits with five strikeouts and one walk allowed. Jorge Soler has taken him deep, and if he stays fastball heavy with him, I could see that happening again.

This is the start where I believe we’ll really find out about Keller. After throwing 75 pitches in his start against the Angels on Tuesday night, he should be up to about 90 in this one, which is enough to get him at least to a third time through the lineup. Until we see him actually pitch enough to get there, his starts are nothing more than glorified relief appearances. And don’t get me wrong, he’s been excellent in his two starts, allowing two runs on eight hits over 7.1 innings with six strikeouts and two walks. I believe he’ll need to incorporate his changeup more as he turns a lineup over multiple times, but it’s hard to not be happy with what he’s shown so far.

The Royals just don’t seem to be in an especially good place right now, though they do seem to have the right starters going (if that exists for them). I’m torn between them losing three of four and splitting, but I’ll choose the optimistic route for some reason and say they’ll split.

Now, we already know the first payment on the ’13 draft was a very large one as the Royals turned their second and third picks that season, Sean Manaea and Cody Reed, into a 2015 World Championship with the two as primary pieces in the Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto trades. Those flags shall fly forever and the money from that World Series merchandise overflowed for the Royals. While those two turned huge returns, what other players from that draft are of note?

1st Round picks or Eventual 1st round Picks
Hunter Dozier
Sean Manaea
T.J. Zeuch 31st round
Will Craig 37th round

That’s right, the Royals made four selections that turned into 1st round picks. Yes, it’s obvious that Dozier and Manaea were first round picks, but additionally their 31st round and 37th round picks turned into 1st round picks for the Pirates three years later.

Besides 1st round picks what players have made their debuts in the major leagues?
Cody Reed
Luke Farrell
Kevin McCarthy
Glenn Sparkman

So we see the Royals have drafted six players in that draft who have made it to the big leagues so far. The isn’t too bad, though it could be better. Only Manaea and McCarthy have given multiple appearances with contribution and McCarthy has limited upside as a reliever. The other four we’ll just give an incomplete as players who have struggled in limited appearances.

While ’18 will add to the story for Manaea, Farrell and Reed, elsewhere there are bigger impacts to come for a few Royals.

First, there is Dozier who, after a lost ’17 season due to injury, faces the possibility of competing with Cheslor Cuthbert for the third base job or working his way into the lineup as a first baseman. The upside of a big league average regular is still there for Dozier, and some might say that if the Royals dream to compete in ’18 that the upside that he presents might be one of the only ways along with a bounceback by starters in the pitching staff could be the only way they could get there. The 2016 minor league player of the year has 3-4 fWAR upside which is something a few other position players likely don’t have.

In addition to Dozier, this season is a big one for Glenn Sparkman and Jonathan Dziedzic. While Sparkman made a rough debut after a spring training injury for the Blue Jays, lefty Dziedzic looked to be on the cusp of shoving his way into a major league debut before an April injury sidelined this season. With the Royals likely needing innings from a rotation of oft-injured pitchers and additional bullpen pieces, these two could jump to the top of the list of players with a shot to make an impact. In particular, Sparkman and his four pitches with solid 93-95 mph velocity have a shot to be a contributor along the lines of what Jake Junis did last season. While I like Sparkman’s upside more, don’t overlook Dziedzic who, if healthy, has the possibility to grow into a Jason Vargas type crafty lefty if given a chance with his four-pitch mix and high pitching IQ.

This draft has already helped place a flag in the outfield for Dayton Moore and Lonnie Goldberg, but if they want to surprise in 2018 then additional players will have to ring the register once again.

Knowing this is a possible strategy, who is a player that the Royals may highlight as fast mover, who could be had for a tad less than slot to save money for later picks? Here’s one.

LHP Brendon Little
6-2 215 lbs
JUCO State JC of Florida

The JUCO left-handed pitcher started his college career at the University of North Carolina where he couldn’t break through their usually deep pitching staff despite his lofty recruiting ranking, pitching just four innings. From the lost year in the ACC, Little went onto the Cape Cod League where he changed his fortunes. In 13 games pitched in the Cape, he impressed from the bullpen, tossing 22 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP and earning an All-Star nod.

The lefty is attempting to build on that performance to earn a first round selection while continuing to improve his stuff. Using an exaggerated over the top motion, Little works his fastball in the low 90s with plenty of 3s and 4s and up to a peak of 96 mph. That motion allows him to attack the bottom part of the zone effectively, earning a solid 55 or 60 grade on the pitch despite lacking horizontal movement due to the over the top delivery.

The fastball is an impressive pitch and should earn plenty of outs as Little moves along in his career, but the real gem in his current arsenal is the curveball he’s working with. From his over the top delivery, he is able to use a true 12-6 downer breaking ball with depth and off the table motion. The pitch already gets plenty of 60 grades with future 70 possible grades for him. It’s a harder curveball, working in the low 80’s into the mid 80’s at times, that is a true hammer of a pitch.

With the fastball and curveball’s well ahead and both earning swings and misses, Little hasn’t had to develop his change up much in this last year, but he has shown a feel for it at times. Much like the two premier pitches from his hand, it features tumbling action while working in the mid-80s. From the pen in the Cape and working against JUCO hitters, Little has been able to work primarily with the fastball/curveball leaving the change lagging behind. Still, it has the ability to also turn into an average to above average pitch with the actions and feel he has on it.

The combination of three pitches is quite impressive, but the control and command lack considerably behind as currently grading below average. That will have to improve to reach a high ceiling 2/3 starter that he could become with three pitches at least average and two of those being above average. The Royals have had some recent success with this JUCO profile as of late and this selection seems like a logical choice that could provide them a high ceiling talent with savings on the backend to continued adding talent later in the draft.

45 JUCO Pitchers Selected/31 signed in the GMDM era
Notable Pitchers:
’12 Daniel Stumpf, Matt Strahm
’13 Cody Reed, Glenn Sparkman

BA Scouting report 2015

Little is a solid athlete with potential for three average or better pitches. His velocity took a while to come back this spring, but he was consistently 89-92 on the summer showcase circuit and has hit 93 again this spring, though he pitches more at 88-91. His second pitch is his tumbling changeup, which he’s shown a good feel for at times, and the pitch misses bats against right-handed hitters. Little has shown the ability to tightly spin a breaking ball this spring. His command was well below average to start the spring, but he came on strong towards the end, and some scouts project him to have three average or better pitches.

Picture via sfcamanatees.com

Heading into 2017, I have little doubt the Royals will have a bottom-third farm system rating from the experts and in my opinion it is likely to be a bottom five system. This is due obviously to the trading of multiple players the last few years and the graduation of others to the major leagues. With a thin system though, the Royals need to ask themselves if they should have done better with each draft class. To do that they must review the drafts of the past so let’s start there.

2011 – (List of Players Paid $500k or more) Bubba Starling, Cam Gallagher, Bryan Brickhouse, Kyle Smith, Patrick Leonard, Jack Lopez, Jake Junis, Christian Binford – When you add up the bonuses of these eight players you get to over $13m in spending, that number is nearly half of what the Royals have been allowed to spend on big money players in each draft since the new CBA. This draft was supposed to be the fat one that fed the system for years but the results are that Royals whiffed it in a major way. Put in a difficult position no doubt; coveting Bundy but watching the Mariners select Danny Hultzen changed the chances of him falling to the Royals. That forced their hand to select local star Bubba Starling, or go a different route, leaving GMDM and Scouting Director Lonnie Goldberg in a difficult position. It hasn’t worked out as many players in that first round have turned into solid contributors while others appear on the precipice of becoming stars. Beyond Starling’s lack of major league contribution though is the fact that those seven others have not turned into major league contributors.

Major League Players Drafted – Aaron Brooks (9), Terrance Gore (20), Spencer Patton (24)

The positives – Terrance Gore represents the biggest contributor to the Royals on the field from this draft and while he is exciting I doubt one can expect him to do much in his career besides being a better version of Quintin Berry. It has taken Jake Junis some time but it appears to be clicking for him at Double-A this season and he might be ready to force himself onto the 40-man roster soon with the chance at becoming a backend rotation arm. Transformations in Cam Gallagher’s stance have produced results this past month and have Gallagher looking like a future backup backstop. Things aren’t going well for Bubba in terms of the bat, but the defense remains outstanding and the base running and power are still there, there is a little time left.

The trades – Kyle Smith returned Justin Maxwell which created this great moment.
Patrick Leonard was part of the Wade Davis and James Shield return.
Spencer Patton was traded for Jason Frasor.
Aaron Brooks was included in part of the Ben Zobrist deal to the A’s.

2012 – Kyle Zimmer, Sam Selman, Colin Rodgers, Kenny Diekroeger – This one hurts even more than the 2011 draft as the Royals actually made a great selection with their pick and have had terrible luck. There is little to no doubt from most scouts that Zimmer has the pitches to perform at an above-par rate at the major leagues. He’s just been unable to stay stay out of the trainer’s room. Had Zimmer been healthy, the Royals could likely have avoided making a sign for Kennedy, and perhaps continue to force others into the rotation, but things just haven’t worked out. As for the others, lefty Sam Selman has never been able to get the ball over the plate at a decent enough rate to make any impact. He also saw his velocity back off from the mid 90’s in the Pioneer League to the high 80’s, to topping at 90 during his brief appearance at Triple-A. High schooler Colin Rodgers had Tommy John soon after getting drafted and has never been much of a prospect. Diekroeger’s problem wasn’t so much the Stanford swing as it was that he just didn’t have the skills to perform.

Major League Players Drafted – Daniel Stumpf (9), Andrew Triggs (19), Alec Mills (21)

The positives – The Royals 21st and 22nd round selections in Mills and Matt Strahm had excellent seasons last year and have built on that at the usual difficult pitching environment of the Texas League. Both pitchers have a chance to be backend starters down the line while Strahm should at the very least end up as a major league relief pitcher who could give lefties fits.

The trades – The Royals traded Andrew Triggs to the Orioles for cash, the junkballer has since made a couple appearances in the big leagues.

2013 – Hunter Dozier, Sean Manaea, Cody Reed, Carter Hope, Zane Evans – This draft helped produce a World Series championship as much as any other. On top of that title it has produced many organization players and a couple players that still have the chance to contribute to Kansas City in the future. This by far has been Lonnie Goldberg’s most successful draft since taking over the scouting director duties in Kansas City.

The positives – The development of Cody Reed helped acquire Johnny Cueto and the talent level of Manaea added Ben Zobrist to the 2015 roster that produced Kansas City’s first championship in thirty years. Besides those two, the Royals added third baseman Hunter Dozier who is having a resurgence after a couple of difficult seasons at Double-A and Andrew Edwards, a reliever with a chance at contributing in the bullpen. Pitcher Glenn Sparkman was off to a heck of a start in the minor leagues prior to Tommy John in April of last year. It appeared he had a chance at landing in the back of the Royals rotation before the surgery; perhaps his recovery will find him back on that track. In addition to Dozier and Sparkman, catcher Zane Evans has a little bit of pop and a shot at being a major league contributor as a backup.

The trades – Sean Manaea was the main arm in the Zobrist deal.
Cody Reed was one of the major pieces in the acquisition of Johnny Cueto.

2014 – Brandon Finnegan, Foster Griffin, Chase Vallot, Scott Blewett, Eric Skoglund – It’s too early to say that anyone in this draft is a bust or are not going to make it but by now you want to see some positive strides in players by now and among the big money guys only Vallot has flashed. The three high-dollar pitchers haven’t seen their stuff improve enough to get hitters out at a good enough rate in the minor leagues

The positives – First baseman Ryan O’Hearn may have pushed himself into the Royals Top 10 prospects with a strong season in High-A but needs to carry the power over to prove he is Eric Hosmer’s heir. O’Hearn’s college teammate, Corey Toups, has used the suspension of Raul Mondesi to show that he is Double-A ready and could challenge organizationally for a utility or second base role. Catcher Chase Vallot has the greatest upside of the players in the organization, flashing 20+ HR future power with only his catching skills holding him back from a High-A promotion at still just 19 years old. Should the defense not progress, there is little doubt the bat has enough power to hold first base down if he should need to move.

2015 – Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson, Josh Staumont, Anderson Miller, Garrett Davila – We haven’t seen Russell and Davila in full season ball yet but rumors of Russell’s velocity dip combined with Watson’s Low-A results aren’t a good sign for the Royals two first round picks.

Not enough information is known from these picks yet but the start to Watson’s career isn’t a good one as first round picks who get off to poor starts in Low-A typically don’t find positive results further down the line.

Summary - The Royals system needs better results than they have received over the last five drafts, even when one considers the four players dealt away that helped towards winning the World Series. In reviewing these results the two things stand out: The Royals haven’t dipped enough into the college positional player pool early in the draft and the results they have received from college pitchers far outweigh what they have gotten from prep pitchers. Third baseman Hunter Dozier remains the only positional player the Royals have drafted in the first round during Lonnie’s time at the helm. This year’s draft may not be the one to change that with just one pick in the first 100, but with a chance at having two or three picks early in next year’s draft the Royals may want to add to the system that way.

Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports – September 16, 2014 Brandon Finnegan against the Chicago White Sox