Kansas City » Shane Bieber

Series Preview: Royals vs. Cleveland Indians, August 24-26

David Lesky — Fri, 24 Aug 2018 15:20:17 +0000

The Royals return home to take on the division-leading Cleveland Indians in a three-game set. The Indians have basically had their typical season. They started off middling and were sort of hovering around .500 for the first half of the season only to get hot after the break. They’re 21-11 since coming back and have opened up an insurmountable division lead in a division that nobody would challenge even if it was close. The offense has scored quite a few runs, but interestingly enough isn’t especially deep. They have Jose Ramirez who is their best hitter and Francisco Lindor who would be many teams’ best hitter. Then they have Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion and then a lot of average or worse. But it works for them because the stars are so good. The starting pitching is their true strength even with Trevor Bauer on the disabled list. And their bullpen has added reinforcements to cover for Cody Allen and Andrew Miller’s struggles and injuries. This is a very complete team, with the caveat that if you can work around their star hitters, you can keep it relatively low scoring. That’s just easier said than done.

Indians Vitals

Record	73-54, 1^st Place, AL Central
Team TAv	2.68
Team SP DRA	3.46
Team RP DRA	4.18
Team WARP Leader	Jose Ramirez, 6.5
Record vs. Royals	7-2

Royals vs. Indians

Offense

Pitching

Indians Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Francisco Lindor	.288	.368	.540	.343	6.5
Michael Brantley	.301	.357	.470	.285	2.0
Jose Ramirez	.296	.408	.620	.308	5.8
Edwin Encarnacion	.233	.319	.476	.273	0.8
Yonder Alonso	.246	.310	.431	.258	0.5
Melky Cabrera	.270	.311	.441	.264	0.4
Jason Kipnis	.220	.309	.350	.240	0.4
Yan Gomes	.253	.307	.428	.264	2.4
Greg Allen	.258	.296	.335	.222	0.0

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday – 7:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Mike Clevinger	25	157.2	9	7	3.25	3.85	2.6
Brad Keller	35	100.1	6	5	3.32	5.45	-0.3

Clevinger may have been a bit of a late bloomer, but he’s settled in nicely as a very good rotation option for the Indians. His stuff is fantastic when he’s on and he is extremely difficult to square up with just a 32.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 5.5 percent barrel rate. He gets swings and misses on every one of his pitches, which is impressive. His curve is his best swing and miss pitch, but he doesn’t throw it that often. His slider is nasty and it’s not far behind. He also has a 93-94 MPH fastball and a good changeup, so he can beat you a lot of ways. If you’re looking for a weakness, his delivery makes him tough on righties but lefties pick him up okay with a .250/.333/.412 line against him. Other than that, he’s just been really good. He even doesn’t struggle a third or fourth time through the order with opponents putting up similar lines to the first two times through against him. He’s another Indians big league development success story.

Keller passed the 100 inning mark during his last start and looks to be holding strong for the Royals, and maybe even getting better. Since the break, he’s thrown 37 innings and struck out 31 while walking 13 and allowing 35 hits. The home runs are up a bit, but they’re still at a very manageable level. His 3.65 ERA seems awfully sustainable. And he manages the running game well with just one stolen base allowed in five attempts. Some of that is Salvy behind the plate, but some of that is Keller. His last time out against the White Sox was a big success because it was just the second time as a starter that he didn’t walk a batter. I don’t know yet that Keller can be a big league starter long term, but these six starts since the break give me a great deal of hope. He hasn’t started against the Indians yet, but he did go three innings against them to hold them down in the big 10-9 comeback win the Royals had back in May. He also had another 1.1 scoreless against them in April, so he’s pitched well in a limited sample.

Saturday – 6:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Corey Kluber	26	174.1	16	6	2.74	2.76	5.1
Heath Fillmyer	11	45.1	1	1	4.57	7.37	-1.1

Kluber isn’t the best pitcher in the game, but he’s definitely in the conversation and even in a time of struggle, he’s posted a 3.74 ERA in his last 74.2 innings. If that’s struggling, I think any pitcher in the world will take that. He’s just had a couple hiccups recently that we aren’t used to seeing from him. The Cardinals knocked him around in late June and he didn’t get out of the second and then the Yankees and Pirates hit him hard in back to back starts. Since then, he’s been a bit better but not quite vintage Kluber. He has thrown nearly 1,100 innings over the last five years so it’s possible that’s impacting him. He’s still excellent, so I guess it doesn’t matter much. He has been much better at home than on the road with a 3.35 ERA away from Progressive Field and a 2.24 ERA there. And I guess going after the first pitch is a decent idea. At bats that have ended after just one pitch has gone the way of the hitter big time with a .382/.390/.684 line. Of course, if you’re going to go after it, you better be prepared to be down 0-1. And when he’s ahead in the count, opponents are hitting .145 with a .208 SLG, so yeah.

Fillmyer had a bad start against the White Sox his last time that is bad enough statistically with six runs allowed on seven hits in three innings with three homers, but it’s even worse when you remember that he was given a 6-0 lead after two and couldn’t escape the fourth. His slider can be really good at times, but he’s a bit like Jakob Junis in that if it’s not working, he’s not working. I think Junis has more outside the slider, though, which is why he has a much better chance to stick in the big leagues than Fillmyer. He’s now allowed 10 runs on 12 hits in his last two starts spanning just eight innings. His ERA has jumped from 3.13 after his seven shutout innings against the Cubs to 4.57 now. My guess is he’s back in the bullpen soon. Interestingly enough, he also has three shutout innings in relief against Cleveland this year, so maybe he can build on that and get back on track.

Sunday – 1:15 pm

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Shane Bieber	13	74.1	7	2	4.36	3.54	1.5
Jorge Lopez	12	29.1	0	3	3.99	5.36	-0.1

Sorry, but I do think the Royals have a shot against Bieber. I guess it’s that you just Never Say Never. At least that’s what my Friends tell me about the Indians righty with impeccable control and the ability to be a Heartbreaker on the mound with a 93 MPH fastball he throws about 58 percent of the time, a ridiculous slider and a curve that can really Hold Tight. The Royals did manage to hit him decently with four runs on nine hits in six innings back in early July and he only struck out two, which remains his season low. Don’t be a Baby, Indians fans. I’m not throwing Cold Water on your young pitcher. All That Matters is that he gets the job done and he really has this season. You really get The Feeling that he’s going to be a solid pitcher for quite some time.

The second start for Lopez was much better than the first, but it didn’t make me feel any more like he can be a big league starter. Yes, I’m a bit biased because I haven’t believed he’d be a big league starter even from his time in the Brewers organization, but that just means I need to be proven even more than maybe some others. Five innings of one-run ball is fine, but he needed 95 pitches to get through it and maybe I’m wrong, but I thought his stuff took a dive after about his 70^th pitch. He deserves to get starts the rest of the season because what does it matter, so we’ll see if things continue to get better, but at this point, he’s averaged 19 pitches per inning as a starter and that just won’t cut it long term, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can make strides.

I mean, I suppose the Royals could win a game. It’s not like Bieber is unbeatable and Clevinger is good but not elite or anything. That means they’ll probably beat Kluber because nothing makes any sense. Fine, I’ll do it. I’m going to be bold. I think the Royals take one of three.

Series Preview: Royals vs. Cleveland Indians, July 2-4

David Lesky — Mon, 02 Jul 2018 13:39:43 +0000

The hapless Royals return to Kansas City to take on the hapfull Cleveland Indians. Is hapfull a word? Officially it isn’t, but that’s okay. The Indians are quite good and seem to really be coming to life in a division that was always going to be a cakewalk for them. They can hit, they can pitch, they can field. Their one weakness is a little bit strange given their personnel, but their bullpen has been a problem for them at times, though it seems like they might be starting to figure things out there. When you have multiple MVP candidates and multiple Cy Young candidates, though, you can make up for one area that might be a bit of a weakness.

Indians Vitals

Record	45-37, 1^st Place, AL Central
Team TAv	.267
Team SP DRA	3.45
Team RP DRA	4.23
Team WARP Leader	Jose Ramirez, 4.5
Record vs. Royals	4-2

Royals vs. Indians

Offense

Pitching

Indians Projected Lineup

	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
Francisco Lindor	.296	.372	.564	.316	3.9
Michael Brantley	.308	.356	.495	.287	1.2
Jose Ramirez	.295	.399	.607	.342	4.5
Edwin Encarnacion	.233	.312	.484	.269	0.5
Yonder Alonso	.257	.325	.448	.269	0.8
Lonnie Chisenhall	.321	.394	.452	.295	0.7
Jason Kipnis	.218	.298	.344	.231	-0.3
Yan Gomes	.248	.312	.448	.268	1.7
Tyler Naquin	.281	.308	.377	.256	0.5

Projected Pitching Matchups

Monday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Corey Kluber	17	113.1	11	4	2.54	2.56	3.5
Jakob Junis	16	96.1	5	9	4.67	5.33	-0.1

Whenever the Royals face Kluber, I think back to 2012 and 2013 when I couldn’t figure out why a guy with the stuff Kluber had wasn’t getting better results. Well, he’s getting better results now. I’m not sure he’s the best pitcher in baseball or even the American League, but he’s one of a handful on the short list. What’s amazing is that I think he might be getting even better as his control, which was always good, just continues to improve as he’s walking just a batter per nine innings this season. When you have stuff like that, it’s game over. He works with a two-seamer, cutter and slider and all are phenomenal pitches with his fastball coming in at around 93 with some fantastic movement. It is the pitch that’s been hit the hardest with a .496 slugging percentage allowed and nine home runs. That’s the way to beat him. But while you’re trying to beat him on that, you’re either whiffing on pretty much all his pitches are beating them into the ground. He is coming off his worst start of the year, lasing just 1.2 innings and allowing six runs against St. Louis. Now, that can be good or bad in that maybe there’s something off with him, but I’m betting its bad, knowing Kluber. He’s faced the Royals once this year and gave up two unearned runs over seven innings in an 11-2 Indians win. If you’re looking for a bright spot, Mike Moustakas is hitting .463/.500/.707 against him in 44 plate appearances.

There was a time a few weeks ago when a Junis vs. Kluber matchup would be very exciting, given the comparisons that were made the two sliders, but Junis has been really bad for awhile now, coming out on the losing end of each of his last six starts. One thing I hadn’t noticed before is that he’s thrown about twice as many curves as last season in a pretty similar number of innings, but the whiff rate on it has dropped from 53.8 percent to just 10 percent. Now, he doesn’t throw it much, so that’s not a big issue, but it’s interesting. I really believe the issue for Junis is that he’s just spending too much time in the middle of the plate, as I mentioned in Friday Notes. He gave up four runs on six hits in 5.2 innings against the Indians earlier this year after struggling last year, so this may not be much of a matchup for him.

Tuesday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Shane Bieber	4	24.1	3	0	2.22	3.17	0.6
Danny Duffy	17	94.2	4	7	4.94	6.48	-1.4

They’ve got some Bieber fever in Cleveland with their newest rookie starter. Bieber had thrown 76.2 innings in the minors this year and control is and was his calling card, walking just six batters in those innings. He’s walked just four in the big leagues as well, so it’s carrying over, and he’s amazingly getting strikeouts as well, and a lot of them. He throws a lot of four-seam fastballs, nearly 60 percent of pitches are of that variety and he is solid velocity, averaging 93 MPH or so. His slider and curve are nice changes of pace and very good strikeout pitches for him. The numbers are really eye-popping for him. The stuff doesn’t really jump off the screen when you watch him, but it sure looks like it’ll play as a big league pitcher for a long time. His weakness in the big leagues has been lefties, so maybe this is the day Alcides Escobar gets a day off (haha, I kid), but the heavy lifting will likely need to be done against him by guys like Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda, Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi and Rosell Herrera. It might even be a day to give Hunter Dozier a breather and get Bonifacio some DH at bats with Abraham Almonte in the outfield.

You probably know the numbers by now, but Duffy has definitely been better, at least in terms of results. Over his last seven starts, he’s averaged nearly 6.1 innings per with a 2.68 ERA. The strikeouts are there with 38 in 43.2 innings, but the walks are too high, so that’s worth keeping an eye on. His four-seam fastball was simply phenomenal against the Brewers last week, getting 12 swings and misses on it out of just 40 thrown. That’s a really fantastic whiff rate for a pitch that he doesn’t typically get a ton of swings and misses with. It was working so well that he relied really heavily on it, when he typically will go to his changeup a little more often. Duffy’s faced the Indians twice this year. The first time, he had that disaster first inning before settling down. The second time, he gave up nine earned runs in 3.1 innings. He’s been pitching much better since around that start, but, like Junis, this just isn’t a great matchup for him.

Wednesday

	G	IP	W	L	ERA	DRA	WARP
Trevor Bauer	17	113.2	7	6	2.45	2.35	3.8
Ian Kennedy	17	91.2	1	8	5.11	5.07	0.2

Trevor Bauer spent a long time being the most obnoxious pitcher in baseball, but he finally has the numbers to match his annoyingness, so good for him. He’s having a phenomenal year and has been a bit of a tough luck pitcher, further demonstrating why wins and losses for starters tell a fraction of the story at best. After four straight seasons of ERAs finishing above 4.00, he’s finally managed to limit hits, home runs and walks all at once, all while seeing his strikeout rate continue to rise. Maybe I’m just missing the stories, but one of the things I’ve noticed about him is that he’s really simplified his repertoire. He still throws five or six pitches, but he really focuses on his four-seamer, slider and curve, mixing in a cutter as well. That cutter has actually been a bit of a problem for him with a .278 average allowed and .611 SLG, albeit in just 36 at bats that ended on it. You can try to find a weakness with him, but it’s tough. It is interesting to me that in “high leverage” situations, according to Baseball Reference, he’s allowed a .280/.419/.560 line in 63 plate appearances. Who knows what that’s about? Duda is 3 for 7 against him, but most of the Royals big bats (yes they have big bats, stop laughing) have struggled against the talkative righty.

Kennedy left his last start with a side injury but appears to be good to go for this one, which I’m not sure if that’s good or bad. If he can’t go, I imagine Trevor Oaks will get the nod in a battle of Trevors that the Twins would salivate over, but it looks like it’ll be Kennedy. I came into the season hoping Kennedy could somehow regain his 2016 form when he didn’t have a hamstring issue like last year. At this point, there’s really no way to expect much out of him. Yes, he will have a good game from time to time, but no, he isn’t a good pitcher anymore, and that’s really disappointing. He’s only had double digit swings and misses in three of his 17 starts. I’ll keep beating this dead horse. He needs to throw fewer sliders and more changeups. He probably needs to throw fewer fastballs too. Maybe I’m just being too obvious here, but if you have a pitch that you allow a .123 average and .246 SLG like he has with his changeup, I’d throw that more. What can it hurt? Kennedy did have arguably his best start of the year against the Indians in April, throwing six shutout inning with eight strikeouts and no walks.

The Royals are bad, the Indians are good. The Royals might get a win in this series, but I’m certainly not going to be the guy to predict it after I got burned so badly on the series win prediction from over the weekend.