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	<title>Kansas City &#187; Wade Davis</title>
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	<description>Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site</description>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Never Too Early to Discuss the Draft &#8211; Griffin Conine</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/24/its-never-too-early-to-discuss-the-draft-griffin-conine/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/24/its-never-too-early-to-discuss-the-draft-griffin-conine/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jan 2018 13:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Clint Scoles]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Minor League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Griffin Conine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Conine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=18913</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 1987, the draft was just a tad bit longer than it is today. That year the Royals would select 74 players as the other teams all bowed out in the 71st round or earlier before the Royals were the last team to wave the white flag. After drafting the franchise&#8217;s 2nd most valuable player [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In 1987, the draft was just a tad bit longer than it is today. That year the Royals would select 74 players as the other teams all bowed out in the 71st round or earlier before the Royals were the last team to wave the white flag. After drafting the franchise&#8217;s 2nd most valuable player by rWAR, Kevin Appier, with their 1st round pick (9th overall) Art Stewart&#8217;s crew didn&#8217;t connect on another successful pick until the 58th round. In that round, they selected a UCLA 3rd baseman by the name of Jeff Conine who, despite being a late selection, would work his way through the Royals minor league system until he would be knocking on the door in 1992 after a solid season at Triple-A Omaha.</p>
<p>Despite a possible hole at third base, the Royals would leave Conine unprotected for the expansion draft that November, likely due to a trade they were navigating with the Mets that would land them Gregg Jefferies just one month later. That move and the moves that would come after would be a mistake as Conine would establish himself as a key part of two different championship squads in Florida. Despite that mistake, the Royals have an opportunity to right that wrong some 25 years later.</p>
<p>Griffin Conine, Jeff&#8217;s son, has proven over the course of two summers that he can do some major damage with a wood bat, hitting 25 home runs between the Northwoods League in 2016 and the Cape Cod League in 2017. The right-fielder does this with a powerful swing that, while long, stays in the hitting zone for a decent amount of time. Operating with an open stance that he keeps open throughout the swing, Conine has a leveraged cut that should continue to create plenty of fly ball contact once converted to pro ball. A pull oriented swing with his stance, Conine could need to close it some once in pro ball to cover the outside of the plate even with his extension. The power and swing aren&#8217;t all he brings to the table. He possesses good speed and the movement needed to play above average defense in the outfield. In addition to the movement, Griffin inherited his father&#8217;s above average arm giving him two above-average tools from which his game is built on while working with three other average tools.</p>
<p>Coming off an impressive Cape season, and after connecting on 13 home runs during his sophomore season at Duke, there is some chance that Griffin pushes his way into the Top 10 picks. It&#8217;s possible, but not probable as just two college corner outfielders have been chosen in the Top 15 picks of the draft over the past five years. That means there is a legitimate chance that he could be available to the Royals when their selection comes around. A strong-armed corner outfielder who could move quickly through the system while offering depth to that position alongside Khalil Lee, Seuly Matias and current Royals outfielder Jorge Bonifacio would be very valuable in the rebuild of this farm system.</p>
<p><strong>Draft Strategy</strong></p>
<p>As we can see from the playoff runs by the Royals, Cubs and more, relief pitchers are suddenly extremely valuable commodities. In addition to the example of success from the playoff teams, the free agent relief pitchers have earned some of the biggest contracts available the last two seasons at a time when the free agent market has been depressed. Pitchers Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, and Brett Cecil have outpaced starting pitchers the past two offseasons. In addition to the postseason success and free agent money, relievers have produced decent returns in the trade market when one looks at what Chapman, Davis, Melancon and others have returned. While KC isn&#8217;t likely to compete during the next few seasons there is still no reason why a team like the Royals who has been extremely good at discovering power arms in the bullpen should shy away from using a pick on a power armed quick moving reliever. Even non-contending teams need quality arms in the pen, and should the Royals once again discover a closer or setup man they can always turn that player into additional prospect pieces to improve their farm system.</p>
<p>Follow me <a href="https://twitter.com/ClintScoles?lang=en" target="_blank">@ClintScoles</a> and purchase our <a href="https://payhip.com/b/u2Vh" target="_blank">Royals Prospect Guide here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Soler&#8217;s Redo</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/03/solers-redo/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/03/solers-redo/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2018 13:00:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Lesky]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Soler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=17474</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A little over a year ago, the Royals agreed to a deal with the Cubs to send them Wade Davis in exchange for Jorge Soler. The return was underwhelming at the time after what we saw relievers were traded for during the 2016 season, but I thought that in terms of pure value, it could [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A little over a year ago, the Royals agreed to a deal with the Cubs to send them Wade Davis in exchange for Jorge Soler. The return was underwhelming at the time after what we saw relievers were traded for during the 2016 season, but I thought that in terms of pure value, it could work out fine enough for the Royals. Through one year, it’s been an absolute disaster. At this point, the Royals would have been far better off giving Davis a qualifying offer and then getting a pick directly after the first round in exchange for him signing his three year, $52 million deal in Colorado. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Thankfully, this story isn’t over. Yes, Soler hit an absolutely embarrassing .144/.245/.258 with a .172 TAv. He was worth -0.9 WARP. He was horrendous. He was so bad that the major league ready outfielder the team acquired in exchange for one of the best closers in the world only came to the plate 110 times for the big league club because of being demoted to Triple-A. The good news is that he did what he was supposed to do in the minors. He posted a .952 OPS with a 15 percent walk rate and a not-horrible 25 percent strikeout rate.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Maybe more importantly, because of all that time in the minors, he is now under team control for an extra season. Yes, he has a deal that only runs through 2020 (at a guaranteed $12 million), but there are no provisions in his contract that allow him to become a free agent following that deal if he doesn’t have enough service time to become a free agent, so he’ll be slotted back into arbitration for 2021. That means when the Royals traded Davis for Soler and his four years of control, they didn’t lose one of those years in 2017. At least they have that.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">And that’s where the optimism comes in, if he can make good on his promise. Remember that heading into the 2017 season, Soler had hit .258/.328/.434, which was good for a 106 OPS+. Prior to the 2017 season, Eric Hosmer had hit .277/.335/.428, which was good for a 107 OPS+. That’s obviously a terribly crude way to look at the two because there are plate appearance differences and other things, but one guy is looked at as an absolute disaster while another has been rumored to be in possession of a seven-year contract offer presumably worth well over $100 million. Again, I’m not saying Soler is as good as Hosmer or even as good of a bet, but it’s interesting how different the perception is from one player to the next. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Before the 2017 season, I said that the three keys to the Royals season were Nate Karns, Joakim Soria and Soler. If they performed well, the Royals would be just fine. If not, they’d probably be a middling team. Karns was good enough, but didn’t make it to June. Soria was better than you think and Soler was a disaster. And the Royals were a middling team. The funny thing is that heading into 2018, it looks like Karns and Soler are again going to be keys to whether or not this team succeeds or at least exceeds low expectations (I still think Soria is traded). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If you’re like most (me included) and think the 2018 season is probably a lost one regardless, it doesn’t matter too much, but I’m really interested in seeing what Soler can do in his second year with the organization. I know I’ve talked about this a lot, but multiple people were convinced Soler would struggle in his first year with the Royals before getting on track in year two. I’m guessing they weren’t expecting the struggles he had, but we don’t know if they were right yet. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What I like is that he was a guy who swung at less than 25 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. I like that he hit the ball hard when he actually made contact with an average exit velocity of 89 MPH with roughly ⅓ of his batted balls coming at 95 MPH or harder. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I don’t like that he went 6 for 39 on sliders and curves with 20 strikeouts and one extra base hit. He swung and missed more than half the time he swung at those pitches. The cutter wasn’t his friend either, going 2 for 12 on it with two singles and six strikeouts. The curve and slider I get, but his career numbers against cutters are much better (.293 with a .586 SLG and just 10 strikeouts in 58 at bats). I think the big issue against basically any pitch that moved is that he was almost too patient and then when he was backed into a corner and had to swing, he couldn’t make contact. None of the plate discipline or batted ball stats in his favor will matter if he continues to swing through these pitches. That’s just some of the bad of Soler offensively.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Defensively, he’s never going to get confused for a gold glover, which means the offense has to come around for him to be valuable. I think there’s more to him than the absolutely abysmal showing he had last season in the outfield, but I’m not sure how much more. I will say that the defensive numbers are better in left field for him than in right, but that doesn’t mean they’re good. Plus, the Royals have a pretty good defensive left fielder right now, and if neither hits, at least get the defense out there. I’m rambling a little bit, but the point is that I think he can be passable if the bat is there.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">And that’s just it. Soler is absolutely a key for the 2018 team, at least as it is currently constructed. The rotation right now is decent enough. The bullpen has a little upside if a couple guys come around. The offense needs a thumper. Sure, they need a lot more than just a thumper, but getting that would help to start to set the rest. It’s going to take an awful lot to get the 2018 Royals to even the fringes of contention, and it’s going to take an awful lot to make the trade of Wade Davis look good for the organization. The latter happening would certainly help at least get the former a little closer. I’m not counting on it, but maybe, just maybe, Soler’s second chance will be a little more fun to watch than part one.</span></p>
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		<title>The Dynasty That Wasn&#8217;t?</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/25/the-dynasty-that-wasnt/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/25/the-dynasty-that-wasnt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Darin Watson]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alcides Escobar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Hosmer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Soler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lorenzo Cain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Moustakas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Salvador Perez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yordano Ventura]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15266</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here we are, at the end of the Royals’ championship window for this group of players. I know, the Royals have made some noise about re-signing their impending free agents, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Odds are, the key players are going to be too expensive, and at any rate there is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here we are, at the end of the Royals’ championship window for this group of players. I know, the Royals have made some noise about re-signing their impending free agents, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Odds are, the key players are going to be too expensive, and at any rate there is almost no chance they’re all back in 2018.</p>
<p>This Royals team will almost certainly finish in third place in the AL Central. Just like last year, and just like in 2013. And just like 2012, the first full year Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez played in Kansas City together. We were told once that the Royals had “the best farm system in the history of whatever.” And yes, we got two World Series appearances and one World Series title from that. But is it fair to be disappointed that we didn’t get more?</p>
<p>I don’t think it’s greedy to have expected more. Certainly this year and last are disappointments, and I don’t think anyone would argue that. On the other hand, the 2012 season was a learning experience for that group, and expecting that many youngsters to win that soon is not realistic. It can happen, but usually it doesn’t. And 2013 was a different kind of learning experience for them—remember, they went 8-20 in May of that year, then 64-46 the rest of the season, and that bad month cost them a playoff spot.</p>
<p>Write off those two years, and then you get a magical postseason run in 2014, and arguably the best team in baseball for the whole 2015 season, capped with a title. So two learning years, two winning years we’ll remember fondly as fans, and two disappointments.</p>
<p>But then I remember that it is hard to win in baseball. Here is list of all the teams that have made consecutive World Series since the Yankees played in four straight from 1998-2001:</p>
<p>2008-2009 Philadelphia Phillies<br />
2010-2011 Texas Rangers<br />
2014-2015 Kansas City Royals</p>
<p>That’s it. Three teams, and the Rangers lost both of their appearances while the Phillies also split theirs. In that regard, the Royals did just fine. Did they do better than, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won their division now for a fifth straight year but not played in the World Series in those previous four appearances? I don’t think I’d make that trade.</p>
<p>Here is the list of American League teams who have made it past the wild-card game in consecutive seasons since 2011:</p>
<p>Detroit Tigers 2012-2014<br />
Kansas City Royals 2014-2015<br />
Texas Rangers 2015-2016<br />
Toronto Blue Jays 2015-2016</p>
<p>Neither the Rangers or Blue Jays will be appearing in this postseason. Judging by their American League peers, the Royals have done just fine in this stretch. Another wild-card appearance (or two) would have been nice, yes, but for many reasons AL teams lately just don’t seem to have long strings of playoff success like they did just a few years ago.</p>
<p>The Royals, especially the last two years, had some bad injury luck and some self-inflicted wounds. Injuries to Cain, Moustakas and Alex Gordon hurt the cause last year. Yordano Ventura’s untimely passing last winter hurt this year’s team. Not finding a reliable second baseman until late May last year and dealing away Wade Davis for Jorge Soler, who contributed nothing this year, were big factors.</p>
<p>OK, one more list. Here are the Royals’ run differentials since 2011:</p>
<p>2012: -70<br />
2013: +47<br />
2014: +27<br />
2015: +83<br />
2016: -37<br />
2017 (through Sunday): -72</p>
<p>Maybe this really hasn’t been that good of a team, especially the last two years. They’ve been in the hunt thanks to the relative lack of exceptional AL teams and the existence of the second wild-card spot.</p>
<p>That’s not a slam. For years, Royals fans suffered 90- or 100-loss seasons and dreamed of the day they would experience pennant races and important baseball in September. Regardless of the run differentials, the Royals have delivered that for five straight seasons. Sure, it would have been nice to experience even more postseason play. But we got two World Series and a plethora of memorable moments we’ll be telling our kids about. You could call it The Dynasty That Wasn’t, but I’m not going to complain.</p>
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		<title>Hindsight and Wade Davis</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/12/hindsight-and-wade-davis/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/12/hindsight-and-wade-davis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Sep 2017 12:00:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Clark Fosler]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joakim Soria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Soler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kelvin Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You have seen the tweets or simply thought of it yourself: What if the Royals had not traded Wade Davis for Jorge Soler?  What IF? Full disclosure, I speculated during the off-season that Davis might be approaching the end of the line.  He had, after all, missed time due to injury twice during 2016 and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You have seen the tweets or simply thought of it yourself: What if the Royals had not traded Wade Davis for Jorge Soler?  What IF?</p>
<p>Full disclosure, I speculated during the off-season that Davis might be approaching the end of the line.  He had, after all, missed time due to injury twice during 2016 and upon returning in September had allowed 11 hits in 9.2 innings of work along with 3 runs.  Not bad numbers, but maybe not WADE DAVIS numbers. Relievers, closers especially, have a tendency to fall off the cliff. Trade a somewhat expensive reliever with some question marks (however &#8216;gut&#8217; related and possibly unfounded they might be!) for a young, controllable everyday player with lots of potential?  Yes, I was onboard.</p>
<p>It might yet yield positive results, but this trade certainly did not work out in 2017.  Soler has been a non-factor in the major leagues for Kansas City. In-house option, Jorge Bonifacio has surpassed what Soler has provided by a huge margin. Meanwhile, Wade Davis is 29 for 29 in save opportunities for the Cubs in 2017.  Oh, my friends, what if?</p>
<p>To be fair, Davis has been very good this year, but not perfect. He has allowed four home runs, which is one more than the three previous seasons combined.  Davis has allowed a run to score in 9 of his 51 appearances and in four of those nine has allowed two runs. Fun fact, the Chicago Cubs have won eight of the nine games in which Davis allowed a run. The only blemish was a loss to Arizona on August 3rd in which Davis allowed two home runs.  The last time Wade Davis allowed two home runs in a game was back in May of 2013 when he was still a starter.</p>
<p>By contrast, Kelvin Herrera has allowed a run or more in 17 of his 56 appearances.  Nine times he has allowed two runs or more and in four of those nine he allowed three runs or more.  Davis, by the way, has not been charged with three runs in a relief appearance since September 28, 2012. In those 17 runs-allowed appearances by Herrera, the Royals won eight times, which leaves us nine games (by very crude logic) hanging in the balance.</p>
<p>Does Davis give up a home run to Jake Marisnick on April 9th (Herrera&#8217;s first blown save)? You can say he does not, but Davis has allowed four homers this season. This was one bad pitch and an otherwise good inning in a game the Royals would eventually lose in twelve innings. We can dig in deeper here and envision a different reliever usage for this game, too, with both Herrera and Davis in the bullpen, but you can also stretch alternative reality scenarios so far that they have no relation to the reality we currently reside in if you are not careful. (Yes, I watch Star Trek, shut up.)</p>
<p>On April 30th, Herrera gave up a run in the top of the ninth with to Minnesota with the Royals already down by two.  Kansas City would score a run in the bottom of the ninth, but still lose by two. Nothing to see here, move along.</p>
<p>May 6th against Cleveland is a game that might well stand out. Leading 1-0, Joakim Soria gave up a run in the top of the eighth to tie the game.  Herrera entered in the ninth, still tied, and gave up back to back home runs. With Davis on the roster, does Herrera pitch the 8th more effectively than Soria?  Again, here we are changing history in the 8th inning, the 9th inning and possibly beyond.</p>
<p>Herrera&#8217;s next blown save came on May 19th against Minnesota where he allowed a two run home run with Kansas City leading 3-1.  The Royals would lose this game in the tenth inning, a frame in which they pitched Al Alburquerque and Travis Wood.   Prior to Herrera, Kansas City threw Matt Strahm, Mike Minor and Soria for an inning apiece.  You do the math here, but Davis in the pen likely means that either Strahm or Minor is available to pitch the 10th, ASSUMING Wade blows a two run ninth inning lead &#8211; something he has not done all year for the Cubs.  This one stands out a bit more to me as &#8216;Wade Davis might have mattered game&#8217;.</p>
<p>The next runs allowed in a loss occurrence on Herrera&#8217;s ledger came on June 5th when he entered a game against Houston with the Royals down 4-3 and allowed three runs (two earned) in the top of the ninth to seal the team&#8217;s fate. Too many ifs and buts to say Davis makes a difference, but worth noting nonetheless. Later in that same series, Herrera entered a tie game on June 8th (1-1) in the top of the ninth, faces five, retires one and the Royals lose 6-1.</p>
<p>On July 1st, Kelvin entered a game once more in the top of the ninth with his team down 7-5 and surrenders three runs (two earned) to Minnesota. Later in the month, on the 19th, Herrera would blow a save against Detroit, but Kansas City would win the game despite the allowance of a two-run home run to Mikie Mahtook.</p>
<p>The last two games are fresher for all of us.  Last Thursday, Herrera would blow a 2-1 lead over Minnesota by allowing three runs in the top of the ninth. To be fair, Herrera did not get a ton of defensive help on the Jason Castro &#8216;single&#8217; to short left, but he also walked the intimidating Robbie Grossman after that, so he hardly gets a pass on this game, either.  Herrera&#8217;s part of this ninith inning featured two singles, two walks (one intentional) and a sacrifice fly. I do not feel like that happens against Wade Davis.</p>
<p>Just to cover all the bases and rub some more salt in the wound, Herrera&#8217;s last runs allowed in a Royals&#8217; loss, came the next night when he entered in the eighth, down by a run and allowed two additional runs before being excused from further work.</p>
<p>In reviewing the above, I look at the games on April 9th, May 19th and September 7th as the three that one could make a very reasonable argument that Kansas City wins if Wade Davis is on the roster. Given that the first two of those three came down mostly to one bad pitch that left the yard, a logical view says Davis blows a save in at least one of those.  We could also fancy a reality in which one of the two tie games (May 6th and June 8th) goes the Royals&#8217; way with Davis in place of or in addition to Herrera.</p>
<p>Take those five games and change a Royals&#8217; loss to a win in three of them?  One could very certainly make that case.  In doing so, however, we have to honestly ask if Herrera would have performed any better back in his set up role versus being the closer.  In doing so, it would be wise to remember that Joakim Soria allowed runs in just two of his first 22 appearances in 2017.  Conversely, as rocky as Herrera has been, would he have given up four runs to Minnesota on April 28th and four to Detroit on May 29th as Soria did in the eighth inning of games his team entered with the lead?</p>
<p>We could also factor in the idea that despite the trials and tribulations of both Herrera and Soria, they certainly offered a level of effectiveness somewhere beyond that exhibited by Travis Wood, Neftali Feliz, Al Alburquerque and so forth and so on.  There are fifty some innings worth of Wade Davis that are taken not from Soria and Herrera but from the bottom portion of the Royals&#8217; bullpen. No, I don&#8217;t have the spreadsheets to prove this, but common sense tells you it almost has to have some sort of knock-on effect to the positive.</p>
<p>In the end, taking all the theories of the preceding three paragraphs and remembering that, contrary to what we remember, Wade Davis is also a human being and not an android, it would still seem that you could piece together a three game swing to the positive for the Kansas City Royals. I might even allow discussion of Davis changing the stars on four games, but that might be stretching it.</p>
<p>Still, three more wins.  How would you feel about the Royals&#8217; playoff chances if they had three more wins?</p>
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		<title>How Do You Spell Relief? (BP KC Episode 38)</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38-2/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 18:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Engel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Podcasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38.mp3 The rumor mill has stopped churning out tidbits for now, so Jeff and Mike made a wishlist of three relievers each who they&#8217;d like to see the Royals go after this offseason. We weighed some pros and cons for each and wondered if the payroll freed up by the Wade Davis trade would allow [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<audio class="wp-audio-shortcode" id="audio-10884-2" preload="none" style="width: 100%; visibility: hidden;" controls="controls"><source type="audio/mpeg" src="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38.mp3?_=2" /><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38.mp3">http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38.mp3</a></audio>
<p>The rumor mill has stopped churning out tidbits for now, so Jeff and Mike made a wishlist of three relievers each who they&#8217;d like to see the Royals go after this offseason.</p>
<p>We weighed some pros and cons for each and wondered if the payroll freed up by the Wade Davis trade would allow Kansas City to go after some of them.</p>
<p>Follow the Vault at @<a href="https://twitter.com/KCBaseballVault" target="_blank">KCBaseballVault</a>. Follow host Jeff Herr at @<a href="https://twitter.com/TheJeffReport" target="_blank">TheJeffReport</a>, co-host Michael Engel at @<a class="g-link-user" href="https://twitter.com/michaelengel" target="_blank">michaelengel</a>. You can also email feedback to <a href="mailto:KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com">KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com</a>. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.</p>
<p>Subscribe to the podcast via <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/kansas-city-baseball-vault/id543221056?mt=2" target="_blank">iTunes</a> and <a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault" target="_blank">BlogTalkRadio</a>. You can also download this episode <a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/15/how-do-you-spell-relief-bp-kc-episode-38.mp3" target="_blank">here</a> (mp3).</p>
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		<title>Bullpen By The Numbers</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/bullpen-by-the-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/bullpen-by-the-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2016 18:57:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Craig Brown]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kelvin Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luke Hochevar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Strahm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10814</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey, how about some good, old fashioned statistical baseball chatter? The Hot Stove is still simmering, but with the Wade Davis trade still fresh in our collective consciousness, why not look at some Royals bullpen numbers, courtesy of the Bill James Handbook and Baseball Reference? Davis is credited with 39 “clean” outings in 45 appearances. The [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, how about some good, old fashioned statistical baseball chatter? The Hot Stove is still simmering, but with the Wade Davis trade still fresh in our collective consciousness, why not look at some Royals bullpen numbers, courtesy of the Bill James Handbook and Baseball Reference?</p>
<p>Davis is credited with 39 “clean” outings in 45 appearances. The Handbook defines a “clean” appearance as one where the pitcher didn’t allow a run or an inherited run to score. Seems fair. As you probably know, I like to look at something like that as a percentage for a better perspective. So in other words, Davis had a “clean” outing 87 percent of the time.</p>
<p>For comparison sake, Joakim Soria had 46 “clean” appearances. Yay, that’s better than Davis! Except Soria pitched in 70 games. Oh. That’s not so good. That’s a “clean” rate of 66 percent. That&#8217;s actually kind of awful.</p>
<p>The Royals had 10 relievers make more than 20 appearances last year. Here they are ranked by percentage of “clean” outings.</p>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/12/Screen-Shot-2016-12-08-at-12.46.38-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10815" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/12/Screen-Shot-2016-12-08-at-12.46.38-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 12.46.38 PM" width="595" height="284" /></a></p>
<p>There’s not much to really glean from the table. It’s just kind of a fun exercise. But the names do tend to fall in an order you would expect. Davis was amazing and Kelvin Herrera was awesome in his own right. Luke Hochevar and Matt Strahm ranking three and four, respectively, is impressive because of how Ned Yost used them as firemen. Hochevar inherited 30 runners and allowed only four to score. Strahm, who picked up the role after Hochevar hit the DL, inherited 18 and allowed only two to touch the plate.</p>
<p>The bottom five is about what you would expect. Chien-Ming Wang’s average Leverage Index was 0.5, so it’s not exactly a huge deal he made a mess of things when he was on the mound. The game was pretty much out of hand by the time he stood up in the bullpen to get warm. Wang appeared in three tie games &#8211; all were in extra innings &#8211; and pitched with a lead four times. In those seven outings, he never gave up the game. Hey! Think positive!</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the disturbing name is, indeed, Soria. Despite mounting evidence, Yost kept running him out in high leverage situations. His Leverage Index of 1.6 was second in the bullpen, behind only Davis at a 2.0 LI. A high Leverage Index plus a low rate of Clean outings…yeah. You get the picture.</p>
<p>Davis dominated in so many ways and absolutely deserves to be in the conversation with the top closers in the game. Sure, there may have been questions about his medicals and relief pitching is notoriously finicky business, but the Cubs got great value in this trade. This isn’t to say the Royals didn’t get value in return. It’s just the Royals built their championship teams on the back of an extraordinairly strong bullpen. Yeah, yeah…their relievers rolled off 41 consecutive scoreless innings at one point last year with Davis not in the bullpen, but if you think that’s reason not to be worried about the next edition of the Royals pen, I don’t know what to tell you. Davis will be missed.</p>
<p>The Royals were great when Davis and his relief cohorts were great. It wasn’t the only reason, but it was a large one. Now the task begins to rebuild the pen. Good luck finding another cyborg.</p>
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		<title>Hasta La Vista, Wader (BP KC Episode 37)</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2016 18:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Engel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Podcasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jarrod Dyson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Soler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37.mp3 It was hinted and suggested and assumed, and then it was finalized. Wade Davis was traded for Jorge Soler. We discussed the way the market developed, the implications of the move, Soler&#8217;s potential, Davis&#8217;s history, and where it leaves the Royals. Then we continued to talk about some Jarrod Dyson rumors and his sneaky [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<audio class="wp-audio-shortcode" id="audio-10806-4" preload="none" style="width: 100%; visibility: hidden;" controls="controls"><source type="audio/mpeg" src="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37.mp3?_=4" /><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37.mp3">http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37.mp3</a></audio>
<p>It was hinted and suggested and assumed, and then it was finalized. Wade Davis was traded for Jorge Soler.</p>
<p>We discussed the way the market developed, the implications of the move, Soler&#8217;s potential, Davis&#8217;s history, and where it leaves the Royals.</p>
<p>Then we continued to talk about some Jarrod Dyson rumors and his sneaky value.</p>
<p>For more from BP KC, check out <a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/01/new-mlb-cba-could-impact-royals-offseason/" target="_blank">David Lesky&#8217;s thoughts</a>. Craig Goldstein also has a deep <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30772" target="_blank">look at the details on Baseball Prospectus</a>.</p>
<p>Follow the Vault at @<a href="https://twitter.com/KCBaseballVault" target="_blank">KCBaseballVault</a>. Follow host Jeff Herr at @<a href="https://twitter.com/TheJeffReport" target="_blank">TheJeffReport</a>, co-host Michael Engel at @<a class="g-link-user" href="https://twitter.com/michaelengel" target="_blank">michaelengel</a>. You can also email feedback to <a href="mailto:KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com">KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com</a>. Email us a question and if we answer it on the air, we’ll send you a gift certificate to our friends at Kelly’s Westport Inn.</p>
<p>Subscribe to the podcast via <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/kansas-city-baseball-vault/id543221056?mt=2" target="_blank">iTunes</a> and <a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault" target="_blank">BlogTalkRadio</a>. You can also download this episode <a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kansascitybaseballvault/2016/12/08/hasta-la-vista-wader-bp-kc-episode-37.mp3" target="_blank">here</a> (mp3).</p>
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		<title>U.L.&#8217;s Toothpick: Figuring Out Wade&#8217;s Place In Royals History</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/u-l-s-toothpick-figuring-out-wades-place-in-royals-history/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/08/u-l-s-toothpick-figuring-out-wades-place-in-royals-history/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2016 13:00:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Darin Watson]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[U.L.'s Toothpick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Quisenberry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Montgomery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joakim Soria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10781</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With Wade Davis on his way to the north side of Chicago, I began wondering if it was possible to assess accurately where he might fit in the history of Royals closers. This is a topic I’ve been thinking about for some time, but I could never quite figure out how to get an accurate [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With Wade Davis on his way to the north side of Chicago, I began wondering if it was possible to assess accurately where he might fit in the history of Royals closers. This is a topic I’ve been thinking about for some time, but I could never quite figure out how to get an accurate comparison.</p>
<p>Raw saves doesn’t really do his ability justice. Davis leaves Kansas City in ninth place in team history with 47 saves. But he was only the closer for a year and change, taking over when Greg Holland had Tommy John surgery in 2015. Davis ranks behind Jeff Montgomery, Dan Quisenberry, Joakim Soria, and Holland, of course, but also behind Doug Bird, Mike Macdougal, Roberto Hernandez, and Steve Farr. Those last four were all fine pitchers for the Royals, but never approached what Davis has done.</p>
<p>The evolving role of the closer through the years also makes comparisons tough. Quisenberry averaged 132 innings in 1980 and 1982-1985 (throwing out the strike-shortened 1981 season); Davis threw 182 2/3 innings total the last three seasons. The job was simply different in the early 1980s; Quiz would pitch multiple innings in many games. Not that he depended on an overpowering fastball, of course, but he had to pace himself a bit. Same for Montgomery, to a lesser extent. Davis had the freedom to go as hard as he could for one inning at a time.</p>
<p>Those different pitching styles also make comparisons difficult. Davis piled up the strikeouts; he had 234 over the last three seasons. Quisenberry had 321 in 10 years as a Royal. Obviously Davis was more dominant. But was he more effective?</p>
<p>The shortness of Davis’s stint as closer also hinders comparisons. Counting stats like WARP are skewed (Quiz has 10.5 as a Royal; Davis has 5.1, but 4.5 as a reliever). I suppose I could frame it as WARP per innings pitched or games or something, but that seems like a Franken-stat a little bit.</p>
<p>So perhaps the best thing to do is just look at each guy’s three peak seasons as a Royal side-by-side. I used WARP as a guide for each pitcher’s three-year peak, but I made an exception for Soria (whose best WARP score was in 2007, when he was not the closer). The caveat here is that WARP is partially dependent on DRA, and I wonder how accurate that can be for older players due to limitations in the available data. I think that is a minor quibble, though.</p>
<table style="height: 254px" width="862">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87">Pitcher</td>
<td width="40">Years</td>
<td width="35">ERA</td>
<td width="28">G</td>
<td width="28">SV</td>
<td width="29">BSv</td>
<td width="42">IP</td>
<td width="28">H</td>
<td width="28">R</td>
<td width="24">HR</td>
<td width="23">BB</td>
<td width="28">SO</td>
<td width="38">ERA+</td>
<td width="42">WHIP</td>
<td width="45">WARP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quisenberry</td>
<td>82-84</td>
<td>2.38</td>
<td>213</td>
<td>124</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>405</td>
<td>365</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>171</td>
<td>0.988</td>
<td>5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Montgomery</td>
<td>89-91</td>
<td>2.21</td>
<td>203</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>276.1</td>
<td>230</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>265</td>
<td>179</td>
<td>1.147</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Soria</td>
<td>08-10</td>
<td>1.84</td>
<td>176</td>
<td>115</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>186</td>
<td>136</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>206</td>
<td>235</td>
<td>1.005</td>
<td>5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Holland</td>
<td>12-14</td>
<td>1.88</td>
<td>200</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>196.1</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>72</td>
<td>284</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>1.054</td>
<td>6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Davis</td>
<td>14-16</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>185</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>182.2</td>
<td>104</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>234</td>
<td>351</td>
<td>0.892</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Someday, younger fans perusing the Royals’ record books may wonder why Davis has such an important place in fans’ memories. He ends his Royals career holding very few team records, and isn’t even in the top 10 in many categories. But those of us who remember him will know that he had the most dominant three-year stretch as a reliever in team history. Of course he didn’t have the longevity of a Quisenberry or Montgomery, but his peak was higher than any other pitcher who has worn Royal blue. Is he the best closer in Royals’ history? I feel confident in saying that he was. The astonishing WHIP Davis put up actually has some competition from Quisenberry. But nobody is touching that ERA+. Perhaps not surprisingly, looking at it from this angle shows just how dominant Davis was as a Royal.</p>
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		<title>This Is Not The End</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/this-is-not-the-end/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/this-is-not-the-end/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2016 22:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Clark Fosler]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Soler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To some, trading an All-Star closer for a spare outfielder and to do so with the team that is likely to be the opposing league&#8217;s representative in next year&#8217;s World Series is a sign of a tear-down. It could be just another indication that, despite the past four seasons, it is business as usual for [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To some, trading an All-Star closer for a spare outfielder and to do so with the team that is likely to be the opposing league&#8217;s representative in next year&#8217;s World Series is a sign of a tear-down. It could be just another indication that, despite the past four seasons, it is business as usual for the David Glass era Royals. This trade saves the Royals six or seven million dollars in 2017, just proving that it is all about the money.</p>
<p>Maybe you are right. Maybe the Royals are cheap. Maybe an 86-win season followed by an 89-win season and then 95 wins and then a &#8216;disappointing&#8217; 81-win campaign was just all luck and fortunate sequencing. The Royals were not going to be a playoff team in 2017 anyway, you say? Well, maybe you&#8217;re right.</p>
<p>I think you should maybe move along.</p>
<p>The recent history I saw was a pretty legitimate 89-win team that got hot in the playoffs, almost won a World Series and came back the next season to COAST to a 95-win year and beat one of the two best starting rotations in the game four games to one to win the Series. Like nine of the last 15 champions, the Royals did not make the playoffs the following year and, after an August stretch run was derailed by bullpen blowups and missed opportunities, phoned in an 81-win season. Spin it however makes you feel smart, but the jump from 81 wins to the playoffs is really just a hop and, depending on the year, just a healthy skip.</p>
<p>Close enough that the focus of this off-season is more about 2017 than some point in the future.</p>
<p>With that mindset, the Kansas City Royals may very well have passed on packages from other teams (or at least A package from ONE other team) that contained several shiny prospects and instead opted to make a one-for-one deal for a player who they can pencil into the everyday lineup next year. This deal was not a tear-down, nor was it the first match in a fire sale or even a discount sale. While the Royals did indeed trade one year of a player for four years of another, this trade was, more than anything else, done with an eye to making Kansas City better in 2017.</p>
<p>Jorge Soler will be just twenty-five at the start of the 2017 season and has a grand total of 765 major league plate appearances on his resume. He could develop into a strikeout machine with an iron glove. On the other hand, Soler could become a middle of the order power bat who can play at least average defense and he could do that in 2017.</p>
<p>In turn, the Royals gave up one of their heroes, who also happens to be a 31-year old relief pitcher coming off a season that included two trips to the disabled list and decline in pretty much whatever pitching metric you prefer from 2015. Baseball is full of relievers who, once the decline started, found themselves very quickly exiled to baseball oblivion.</p>
<p>Now, Davis might well be a cyborg next year for the Cubs, but baseball trades are all a bit of a gamble and this one seems like a reasonable calculation. The Royals have Kelvin Herrera to close and they are stuck with Joakim Soria. Matt Strahm emerged as a force out of the pen and old friends like Luke Hochevar and Greg Holland are lurking in the backwaters of free agency. The organization has exhibited a consistent ability to build bullpens.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s face it, Dayton Moore is gambling on the fact that he can manufacture another good bullpen centered around Herrera more effectively than he can find a much needed bat for his lineup. Enter Jorge Soler, a gamble in his own right, but not an absurd one. He is not a hip and cool A-ball star who will hopefully help the 2019 team maybe be decent. No, Soler is a player who will hopefully help a team one season removed from a title get back to the playoffs AND help the 2019 team be decent.</p>
<p>Rumors and speculation are just that and, this time of year, they can drive you nuts if you let them, but it certainly does not appear like Dayton Moore&#8217;s off-season is done. There are moves to come still and speculating on what those might be is just that. What I do believe, however, is that whatever follows will me aimed at making the 2017 Kansas City Royals better first and foremost.</p>
<p>No, my friends, this is not the end.</p>
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		<title>The Wade Davis Experience</title>
		<link>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/the-wade-davis-experience/</link>
		<comments>http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/the-wade-davis-experience/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2016 20:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Craig Brown]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10770</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wade Davis came to Kansas City enveloped in a cloud of anger. It was hardly his fault. The anger was of a fanbase frustrated with losing and with the trade of top prospect Wil Myers. It was called the James Shields Trade, but really, we should adjust our thought process. Turns out, Davis was the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wade Davis came to Kansas City enveloped in a cloud of anger. It was hardly his fault. The anger was of a fanbase frustrated with losing and with the trade of top prospect Wil Myers. It was called the James Shields Trade, but really, we should adjust our thought process. Turns out, Davis was the key to the trade after all.</p>
<p>It didn’t look that way out of the gate. Davis hit the shelf in his first spring training with the Royals with shoulder soreness. He opened the year in the rotation but through his first 24 starts he was punished by hitters to the tune of .320/.386/.465 with a 5.67 ERA. It wasn’t working. The Royals sent him back to the bullpen in September (he worked there for one season in Tampa) where he ditched his change and found success. In 10 innings, he allowed just three hits and one run while striking out seven.</p>
<p>Faced with a pile of evidence that he was better suited to relief, the Royals chose to ignore it and wedged Davis back to their rotation to open their Cactus League title defense in 2014. He didn’t make it to mid-March. The Royals pulled the plug on Davis as starter and, despite his objections, he went back to the bullpen.</p>
<p>Sometimes, Plan B is the better plan.</p>
<p>Yet it wasn’t obvious at first. Davis as a full-time reliever got off to a bit of a rocky start. He pitched in each of the first four games of the 2014 season and blew two save opportunities. Quickly though, he found his Zen. The Wade Davis Experience was born.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">The Wade Davis Experience.</p>
<p>— Craig Brown (@CraigBrown_BP) <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigBrown_BP/status/456258883636310017">April 16, 2014</a></p></blockquote>
<p>If I may deviate for a bit of a personal note. Oftentimes, during the course of the game, I have been known to open up my Twitter. On the night of April 30 in a game against the Blue Jays, Davis entered the game having thrown just over 11 innings on the year with 20 strikeouts. Quite amazing. However, he also had walked seven and allowed six hits. Freakish dominance wrapped around a few baserunners and some of those early season runs. It was obvious he was finding his groove. Still, I couldn’t resist. As he entered the game, I submitted this Tweet.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Wade Davis prediction. 1 single, 1 walk, a hit batter. 3 strikeouts.</p>
<p>— Craig Brown (@CraigBrown_BP) <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigBrown_BP/status/461696335528198144">May 1, 2014</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Here’s what happened.</p>
<p><a href="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/12/Screen-Shot-2016-12-06-at-10.54.53-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10771" src="http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/12/Screen-Shot-2016-12-06-at-10.54.53-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-12-06 at 10.54.53 PM" width="752" height="180" /></a></p>
<p>It was, thanks to Wade Davis, my finest moment on Twitter. (Seriously, you couldn’t have drilled Chris Getz?)</p>
<p>Perhaps inspired by my predictive powers, or maybe it was a cool new nickname, Davis flipped on the afterburners and straight dominated the rest of the season. Over the final five months of 2014 he threw 59.2 innings with 86 strikeouts and a 0.60 ERA. Oh, yeah… He didn’t allow a home run all year and didn’t even surrender an extra base hit until July 31.</p>
<p>Legend.</p>
<p>He followed that up with another exceptional season in 2015. How do you improve upon perfection? He allowed a few home runs which was always shocking. His strikeout rate dropped. But hitters still had a difficult time squaring him up and once again, he rode his dominance into the playoffs. This time, as a closer, replacing the injured Greg Holland. He didn’t miss a beat.</p>
<p>In 25 postseason innings spanning two Octobers, Davis surrendered 14 hits and one earned run. One earned run. That’s a 0.36 ERA. He limited the opposition to .163/.209/.209. Of the 14 hits he allowed, only four went for extra bases, all doubles.</p>
<p>There is dominance and then there is Wade Freakin’ Davis in the postseason.</p>
<p>To comprehend the filth, the nastiness of Davis in October, I can only point you to his performance in Game Six of the 2015 ALCS against the Blue Jays. The Royals were six outs away from advancing to their second consecutive World Series, but hit a speed bump when Ryan Madson allowed a two-run home run to tie the game. Enter Davis.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m_HlROB2y-Q" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Five outs sandwiched around a rain delay. Oh, and there was the pesky bit of business about the tying run on third with no outs.</p>
<p>I mean, I saw it. I was there. And I’m not sure I still believe it.</p>
<p>Teams don’t last forever. Players drift and find new homes. Saying goodbye to our heroes isn’t easy. It’s not supposed to be. We each have players we root for just a little bit more than others. Davis is one of those guys for me. I admire how he approaches his craft. The stoicism. The filth that comes out of his right hand.</p>
<p>While the Royals were absolutely right in trading Davis, the fallout is potentially troubling. For starters, you have Ned Yost who is the ultimate push-button manager when it comes to the bullpen. Think about it. The Royals greatest success was when Yost could go to Herrera-Davis-Holland. And then there was Herrera-Madson-Davis. Automatic. The times when Yost struggles with his bullpen (think #Yosted) is when he doesn’t have his guys in set roles. He’ll figure it out eventually, but how long exactly will it take? He needs to feel comfortable and his relievers need to share that comfort.</p>
<p>It will be impossible not to miss that feeling when Davis strides in from the bullpen, late inning, game on the line. Give me three outs.</p>
<p>The Wade Davis Experience.</p>
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