With a rebuild likely in the making, will GMDM, Goldberg, and staff look to go back to their roots to find a prep position players to eventually send the Royals back to the playoffs?

In a previous draft article, I highlighted one player in Jordon Adell as that type of player that could be available to the Royals while also returning them to their roots of a high ceiling prep position player. If I was to guess which of these two in Adell or Austin Beck is likely to fall to the 14th pick for Kansas City I would definitely lay the money on Adell. Considering college players typically see their stock rise ahead of the draft, it’s good to take a look at another prep player like Beck just in case.

An outfielder from North Carolina, Beck features average to better tools in all facets of the game with his power and speed standing out as his best current and future tools. At the plate, Beck features slightly above average bat speed as evidenced by his numbers in the Zep Metrics recorded by Perfect Game. Along with that bat speed, Beck features some waggle in his plate approach that likely will need to be lessened as he moves into minor league ball. On top of the waggle, he tends to get his head and body movement out in front some which could leave him vulnerable to breaking and offspeed stuff until he adjusts. During his younger years, he featured a more balanced approach with less movement to the front. This could be the adjustment he makes back to that form once he enters pro ball and is facing higher quality arms every day. That Beck is a less dynamic hitter but a more balanced, average approach hitter, a mix of the two is likely what pro teams will be looking for from the prep outfielder.

Beck certainly plays with an intensity which is reminiscent of what the younger versions of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer brought to the Royals system. Perhaps the franchise could use that type of intensity back in their minor league system, or maybe they just need more talent to win and that intensity comes with high profile games and wins.

The other skills Beck features are solid, but I wonder if he slows down and ends up in a corner rather than as a center fielder. That possible move combined with a limited ceiling in his tools and some tweaks that I think need to be made with the hitting approach give me enough caution that I would lay off him in the Top 14 picks in favor of a number other college and prep players.

Prep Position Players Drafted in the GMDM era
*Traded for James Shields, Wade Davis

Main Photo Credit – Austin Beck via Austin Dye Journalnow.com

Knowing this is a possible strategy, who is a player that the Royals may highlight as fast mover, who could be had for a tad less than slot to save money for later picks? Here’s one.

LHP Brendon Little
6-2 215 lbs
JUCO State JC of Florida

The JUCO left-handed pitcher started his college career at the University of North Carolina where he couldn’t break through their usually deep pitching staff despite his lofty recruiting ranking, pitching just four innings. From the lost year in the ACC, Little went onto the Cape Cod League where he changed his fortunes. In 13 games pitched in the Cape, he impressed from the bullpen, tossing 22 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP and earning an All-Star nod.

The lefty is attempting to build on that performance to earn a first round selection while continuing to improve his stuff. Using an exaggerated over the top motion, Little works his fastball in the low 90s with plenty of 3s and 4s and up to a peak of 96 mph. That motion allows him to attack the bottom part of the zone effectively, earning a solid 55 or 60 grade on the pitch despite lacking horizontal movement due to the over the top delivery.

The fastball is an impressive pitch and should earn plenty of outs as Little moves along in his career, but the real gem in his current arsenal is the curveball he’s working with. From his over the top delivery, he is able to use a true 12-6 downer breaking ball with depth and off the table motion. The pitch already gets plenty of 60 grades with future 70 possible grades for him. It’s a harder curveball, working in the low 80’s into the mid 80’s at times, that is a true hammer of a pitch.

With the fastball and curveball’s well ahead and both earning swings and misses, Little hasn’t had to develop his change up much in this last year, but he has shown a feel for it at times. Much like the two premier pitches from his hand, it features tumbling action while working in the mid-80s. From the pen in the Cape and working against JUCO hitters, Little has been able to work primarily with the fastball/curveball leaving the change lagging behind. Still, it has the ability to also turn into an average to above average pitch with the actions and feel he has on it.

The combination of three pitches is quite impressive, but the control and command lack considerably behind as currently grading below average. That will have to improve to reach a high ceiling 2/3 starter that he could become with three pitches at least average and two of those being above average. The Royals have had some recent success with this JUCO profile as of late and this selection seems like a logical choice that could provide them a high ceiling talent with savings on the backend to continued adding talent later in the draft.

45 JUCO Pitchers Selected/31 signed in the GMDM era
Notable Pitchers:
’12 Daniel Stumpf, Matt Strahm
’13 Cody Reed, Glenn Sparkman

BA Scouting report 2015

Little is a solid athlete with potential for three average or better pitches. His velocity took a while to come back this spring, but he was consistently 89-92 on the summer showcase circuit and has hit 93 again this spring, though he pitches more at 88-91. His second pitch is his tumbling changeup, which he’s shown a good feel for at times, and the pitch misses bats against right-handed hitters. Little has shown the ability to tightly spin a breaking ball this spring. His command was well below average to start the spring, but he came on strong towards the end, and some scouts project him to have three average or better pitches.

Picture via sfcamanatees.com

Age – At age 21 O’Hearn was right about average for the levels that he performed at; not old, but not young either, and playing players without his level of experience.

Strikeouts – Considering he was of average age, the number of strikeouts had climbed at a decent clip at every bump in the road so far in his journey going from 20% at Idaho Falls, 24% at Lexington and 29% at Wilmington in his graduation at the end of the year. The power numbers had flashed above rate at both Idaho Falls and Lexington but the large K rate wouldn’t be sustainable if he continued to climb levels.

Positional flexibility – After the draft of O’Hearn, Baseball America had mentioned that O’Hearn had a slight chance of playing a corner outfield with his average positional speed. While that can be read as a positive for most organizations, the facts are that with the Royals it just wasn’t going to be likely with one of the largest outfields in the league and a front office that knows they need defensive speed in the outfield. For a team and a manager who doubts whether Reymond Fuentes is good enough in a corner to play over Paulo Orlando against some right-handed pitchers, how was Ryan O’Hearn ever going to be good enough to play in the outfield? It just wasn’t going to happen therefore O’Hearn is a first base only guy and any first base only guy has to hit a ton, that can be a negative even for some elite prospects.

With those reasons I placed O’Hearn in the high teens/low 20’s ranking with a wait and see near Balbino Fuenmayor as both players who could possibly groove into the positions as future inexpensive first base/DH types when Kendrys Morales (Balbino) or Eric Hosmer (O’Hearn) departs via free agency. Seeing both players as similar to what Clint Robinson had been with the org previously, a capable first baseman if given a chance but not a likely All Star.

After ten games, it appears that my assessment of O’Hearn definitely needs to be altered with him showing a change in his game. That change is an ability to alter his game that the defense and opponent is playing against him as teams in the Carolina league have gone to playing the shift against him which O’Hearn has shown he can beat not only with hits to that side but plenty of power that way as well.

O’Hearn spray chart via MLBFarm.com

This is a definite change for O’Hearn as he’s already hit his two out of the park home runs to left as well as a few doubles deep to that side and plenty of other hits as well. Compared to his ’15 chart which featured two home runs for the year to the left side and the majority of his damage to center and right. My assumption was as he moved up the chain that one trick pony would start to lessen as he climbed against the competition.

2015 MLBFarm.com spray chart

The adjustment made by O’Hearn shows his hitting skill level is much greater than I assumed at the time of my assessment.

To put into context what we are seeing out of O’Hearn through 10 games, let’s compare him to a couple other Royals prospects who achieved quality results at Wilmington.

Ryan O’Hearn 2016 Age 22: .425/.467/.750 4-2b, 3 HR (one inside the park)

Eric Hosmer 2010 Age 20: .444/.512/.583 1-2b, 2-3b similar to O’Hearn the Royals current 1b returned to Wilmington after a brief audition the season prior. The ’10 season would be Hosmer’s finest in a full season as he would blast through Wilmington in just 87 games (.974 OPS) prior to leading NW Arkansas to a AA title.

Wil Myers 2010 Age 19: .425/.452/.525 4-2b Myers was somewhat slow out of the gate in April with Burlington but once he started to hit he didn’t stop earning a promotion to Wilmington in July, once there he didn’t slow down.

Obviously the ages for both Hosmer and Myers are quite a bit more positive than the 22-year old O’Hearn, but still the numbers are impressive nonetheless and at least start to prove he is a prospect who should be rated much higher than I did prior to the season. At this point O’Hearn is a definite Top 10 Royals prospect. At this pace, O’Hearn is likely to earn a midseason promotion. If he handles AA pitching, he could get inside the Royals Top 3 prior to the start of next season.

Troubling signs – While catcher Chase Vallot has hit at an extremely strong level (.367/.474/.667) at Low-A Lexington to start the year he’s struggling behind the dish defensively. Early into the year Vallot has already allowed four passed balls to squeak through while runners are successful in 14 of 17 stolen base attempts. The offensive end of his game is definitely the most important part to his career going forward but any organization with Ned Yost running the major league team will not likely allow itself to give catching time to a less than average backstop defensively.

Photo Credit: Jake Rose; follow Jake on Twitter @JRoseGraphics