On September 2, 2018, the Royals completed a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles to up their record to 45-91, 32 games behind the division leading Cleveland Indians. If it was not for the absolutely atrocious Orioles, the Royals would have the worst record in baseball by nine games.  Kansas City has won seven of eight games to get here. Five of those wins were over the Orioles and Tigers, so don’t think the darkness has ended, but it’s something.

Of course, revisiting 2005 makes some sense, given that was the year the Royals lost 106 games – the worst in their history and this year’s team was, at least until a week ago, making a helluva run at besting that. Similar results? Yes. Similar teams? Not so much. At least not anymore.

On that dreary night in 2005 (actually it was 81 degrees with a light breeze, the baseball was dreary, perhaps it was a delightful night to sip four beers and eat two hot dogs), your Kansas City Royals trotted out this lineup:

• Aaron Guiel, CF.  He would go 2-for-5, upping his batting average AND on-base percentage to .148. The 32-year old was actually on the verge of getting hot and would record a trio of three-hit games in the next week.
• Terrance Long, LF. The 29-year old (I remembered him being older) would also go 2-for-5. He had that September and 12 games with the Yankees the next season left in his major league career.
• Emil Brown, RF. Finishing off the first of two competent seasons with the Royals, the 31-year old Brown went 0-for-3 with two walks.
• Matt Stairs, DH. The 37-year old Stairs would finish that year, one in which he played in 127 games, with a .373 on-base percentage. He would double and walk in five plate appearances and Chip Ambres would pinch run for him late. Ambres, by the way, would play 53 of 80 total major league games that year for the Royals.
• Mark Teahen, 3B. This was the season before ‘The Season of Teahen’, but the 23-year old rookie would go 4-for-5 with two doubles to push his average to .238 and edge his on-base percentage over .300!
• Angel Berroa, SS. The 27(?)-year old Berroa would go 1-for-5 in this game, one of 159 he would play that year. Angel would strike out 108 times in 2005….and walk 18. Say what you want about errors, but Berroa would make 25 that year.
• John Buck, C. The 25-year old was in his second major league season and his 0-for-5 that day would drop his average to .216. He would actually ‘get hot’ to end up slashing .242/.287/.389 for the year. In other words, he was John Buck.
• Justin Huber, 1B.  My goodness I was sure that Huber was going to be somebody. The 22-year old had gotten a whole five games in June and was now back with the September call-ups. He would go 2-for-5 that day, play the bulk of September and do a decent job of tempering the excitement surrounding him. Players who also played first that year: Stairs, Mike Sweeney, Tony Graffanino, Joe McEwing, Eli Marrero and Ken Harvey. And you were mad Ned Yost was playing Lucas Duda too much.
• Denny Hocking, 2B. The 35-year old was in his last major league campaign. He went 2-for-5 in his eighth start in nine games.
• Zack Greinke, SP. The 21-year old would pitch into the sixth, allowing three runs on seven hits. This was the season before Greinke quit baseball for a time and he would go 5-17 with a 5.80 earned run average. While pitcher records and ERA are generally poor indicators, they pretty accurately reflect Zack in 2005. Greinke was followed by Andrew Sisco who gave up two runs in 2/3 of an inning, Ambiriox Burgos who did the same, Juan Carlos Oviedo (Leo Nunez) who went two scoreless and Mike MacDougal who gave up a home run to Rod Barajas in the tenth. At the time, this bullpen had some hope as Sisco was 22, Burgos 21, Oviedo 23 and MacDougal 28 and all were entertaining/maddening.

Fast forward to the lineup of September 2nd of this year.  If you are reading about the Royals at this point in this season, I’m going to assume you are die-hard enough to not need much player embellishment:

• Whit Merrifield, DH. (29)
• Alex Gordon, LF (34)
• Hunter Dozier, 3B (26)
• Ryan O’Hearn, 1B (24)
• Jorge Bonifacio, RF (25)
• Rosell Herrera, 2B (25)
• Brett Phillips, CF (24)
• Alcides Escobar, SS (31, but Mondesi is just 22)
• Meibrys Viloria, C (21)
• Jorge Lopez, SP (25, followed by Tim Hill, 28 and Kevin McCarthy, 26)

Now, we are a bit unfair to the 2005 team as the September 2nd lineup was missing the injured David DeJesus, a good player who was just 25-years old, and Mike Sweeney who was sort of that team’s Alex Gordon. Back then, there was hope – some of it logical – that Teahen and Buck would both develop into good regular players. Teahen actually did for a bit, but could not sustain it.  That hope is probably little different from what we are currently thinking about O’Hearn, Bonifacio and maybe even still Dozier.

Greinke, after a couple of years, would turn into a star and the hope, of course and as always, is that the similarly-aged Mondesi will do the same for this version of the Royals. While you can say that Greinke helped the Royals become good by getting traded for Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar later on, the 2005 Royals were seven years from even being considered ‘decent’ and no one on that roster was part of them getting to that point.

Can we say the same of this year’s Royals? Cynically you can say yes and without question the lineup above (even with Mondesi and Perez in it) is not a lineup that gets to the playoffs next year or the year after, but it just feels like a better group than 2005.

One can say that mistakes were made and resources wasted at the start of the year that got the Royals to the point where winning seven of eight MIGHT save them from the worst season in franchise history. One could also say that mistakes were made and resources wasted during the season that are keeping this team from the number one draft pick. Intentionally or not, Baltimore has done a marvelous job of being so bad that not even the Royals can tank enough to win less!

Are the Royals seven or eight years away from being in contention again?  Maybe, but I think there is hope that they are more like four years (with some luck and a hot start, maybe three) and if that is the case, there are names in the lineup from September 2nd that will be part of the next round of success.

If nothing else, that makes 2018 better than 2005 and, for the love of god, hopefully will make 2019 better than 2006.

Note: All stats in this article are through Tuesday’s action.

Who is Good?

The Diamondbacks rank as the best team in baseball in terms of framing runs with 19.1, which is a decent amount more than the Dodgers who are second at 16.9. Man, it can’t be fun to be a Padres hitter in that division with the best two teams in baseball getting extra strikes all over the place. The Rockies are seventh with 6.9, so the NL West is a framing bloodbath. The rest of the top 10 teams are Toronto, Boston, Houston, Cleveland, the aforementioned, Rockies, Seattle, Philadelphia and the Yankees.

It’s not a perfect correlation to ERA success, but six of those 10 are top 10 in baseball in ERA. Seven of the 10 are top 10 in DRA. And seven of the 10 are top 10 in FIP. Sometimes the team totals are brought down by a backup, but of the top 10 teams in ERA, all have them have at least one catcher in the top 30 in framing runs. So yeah, it matters.

Who is Bad?

The worst team in baseball in framing runs is actually the Cubs, who are quite good and rank seventh in baseball in ERA as a staff. They also rank 20^th in DRA, so take that for what it’s worth. But again, this isn’t always a perfect correlation. And second worst is your Kansas City Royals, worth -13.9 framing runs over the course of the season. The bottom 10 teams in framing runs are San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Mets, Cincinnati, the White Sox, Texas, Royals and Cubs. There’s a lot of range there in team quality and pitching staff quality, but they’re at the bottom.

Royals Factor

You’re reading this because you likely want to know what it means for the Royals. Just think if Danny Duffy had gotten the call against Jake Cave the other day or any number of instances where it sure seemed like the Royals got the short end of the stick. Well try this on for size. The Arizona Diamondbacks have had 50 pitches that were clearly graded as outside the strike zone called strikes. The Royals have had 27. That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s 85 percent more, nearly twice as many. That helps pitchers big time.

But the real value of framing can come on the borderline pitches. These are the pitches that are right around the edge of the strike zone, either just within it or just on the outside of it. This is where we see the most arguments from hitters, pitchers, managers, fans, broadcasters, passersby, etc. The Diamondbacks have gotten 1,685 called strikes on those pitches. The Royals have gotten 1,405.

Diamondbacks:

Royals:

Whoa.

It’s not all Zack Greinke either, though he’s a master of his craft. He’s thrown 13.6 percent of the Diamondbacks pitches this season and he has had 18 percent of their non-strikes called strikes, but only 15 percent or so of the borderline pitches were called strikes. So he helps, but not enough to write it off as him carrying a team in this statistic.

For some more reference, the Dodgers have had 39 non-strikes get called for strikes and 1,570 borderline pitches. The Cubs? They have just 23 non-strikes in their favor and actually have done well on the borderline with 1,550 borderline pitches called for them.

The point is that this is a problem. I brought it up in Friday Notes a couple weeks ago, but if the Royals are going to be counting on young pitching over the next few years, they’re going to need to find a catcher who can help steal them a few extra strikes. Well, now hold up. That’s not entirely true. If they can build a staff of swing and miss pitchers, that would help too. But based on the 9.2 percent whiff rate the staff has posted this year (league average is 10.7 percent and they rank second to last), I’m not sure that’s coming just yet.

The issue is that Salvador Perez isn’t the guy to steal strikes. Of 102 catchers rated, Perez ranks 100^th in framing runs at -7.7. And because I know you were wondering, Drew Butera ranks 98^th with -6.6. Royals pitching has been bad this year, but they certainly haven’t been helped much in this realm.

This isn’t me saying that Perez isn’t good enough to catch for a good team. He obviously was the rock on a World Series champion in a year where he ranked 90^th out of 109, but he was also worth a much more palatable -2.7 runs. And he obviously brings more value behind the plate than just framing pitches as he has one of the best arms back there of any catcher. This year, he ranks at the top of baseball in throwing runs with 1.0. I think that metric is a little faulty because I wonder how many attempts just don’t happen because he’s back there, but even so, it highlights how important framing is compared to throwing.

But never fear, Royals fans, there is good news. Drew Butera is a free agent after the season. That’s good news in itself, but the icing on that cake is that Cam Gallagher can frame a little. He ranks 41^st this season, but has a great reputation in that role and should be the backup catcher next season. I believe it would behoove the Royals for development purposes at the very least to give Gallagher at least 60 games behind the plate next season to let him turn some balls into strikes and get some of the young pitching to find maybe a little more success. It doesn’t hurt that Gallagher isn’t a zero with the bat like Butera and that he probably has some familiarity with a lot of the pitchers. And hey, it’s not like Salvy couldn’t use the days off.

The point here is that framing makes a big difference. Maybe stealing a few extra strikes won’t put the Royals in the playoffs in 2019 (okay, no maybe about it; it definitely won’t), but it could help in numerous ways for the years when they are fighting for that spot. Teams like the Royals can’t be passing up opportunities to get a little off the edges. You never know when it might pay off.

If you’re a fan of the (formerly Baseball Prospectus-run) podcast Effectively Wild, you’ve probably heard the story of the Salina Stockade, easily the most hapless organization in baseball this season and possibly ever (Ben Lindbergh has a compelling read on Salina at the Ringer if you’d like to check it out). Pulled into indy ball’s American Association by bizarre circumstances from the Pecos League, the Stockade have not been competitive in the slightest and currently sit at 18-75, 37.5 games out in the AA South and more than 20 games behind the league’s worst team, non-Salina division.

They haven’t been shut out in four straight games. Nor have they gone 43 innings without scoring.

Baseball has a pretty long history, so when you drop references to the 1985 Astros, 1968 Cubs and 1906 A’s (as in Philadelphia A’s), infamy is all that awaits you.

But again—low-hanging fruit. Everybody’s gonna have a “What’s the most inept offensive stretch of baseball in MLB history?” take, so that’s no fun.

But what about the 10 longest INDIVIDUAL scoreless streaks in MLB history? Could the current Royals—no confidence, wavering with the season in the balance—touch some of the best (or luckiest) hurlers in MLB history?

This has been exhaustively researched and is not negotiable. We’ll go in reverse order, only including live ball era. Everybody from the dead ball era is… well, dead. So they’re definitely out.

10 (three-way tie). Luis Tiant (1968), Ted Lyons (1926), Clayton Kershaw (2014); 41 IP

Then: Tiant was on his game in ’68, which—as you’ll see below—was a great year for pitchers. Kershaw was peak Kershaw. Lyons pitched all but seven innings during his streak on the road. The Royals would touch none of them.

Now: Kershaw is still Kershaw; he could probably no-hit the Royals twice in addition to a scoreless streak.

El Tiante is now 76 years old, but drag him out against the bottom of the order and you could probably still see a scoreless inning thanks to his funky delivery (don’t see the high leg kick much in 2017). And since Lyons has been dead since before I was born, I can guarantee the Royals wouldn’t score on him.

7. Brandon Webb (2007); 42 IP

Then: Webb was the reigning NL Cy Young winner and in the midst of a runner-up season. He recorded three straight complete-game shutouts. The Royals would not touch him.

Now: Webb’s entire right side essentially exploded in 2009. That’ll make it tough for him to pitch, thereby making it tough for the Royals to score on him. Force him to throw left-handed and it’s another story…probably.

6. Sal Maglie (1950); 45 IP

Then: The Barber mixed relief work and starts to 45 scoreless innings, limiting opponents to three extra-base hits despite a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I think—probably by accident—the Royals would score on him.

Now: Died in 1992. Definitely couldn’t give up a run in 2017.

5. Carl Hubbell (1933); 45.1 IP

Then: NL MVP was a year away from one of baseball’s most inanely memorable moments: striking out Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons and Joe Cronin in the 1934 All-Star game. If players took the game as seriously then as they do now, the Babe didn’t get to bed until sun up that morning and was nursing a hangover larger than Foxx’s bicep muscles.

The early-30s aren’t exactly baseball’s halcyon days, but Hubbell threw a screwball, a trick up his sleeve seldom seen in the modern game. If he didn’t suck (and MVP awards, etc., indicate that he didn’t), these Royals would be toast.

Now: Dead since 1988. No runs allowed 29 years later.

4. Zack Greinke (2015); 45.2 IP

Then: One of the best pitchers in baseball, who put together six straight scoreless starts and led the league in ERA (1.66) and ERA+ (222).

Now: One of the best pitchers in baseball. Either way, the current iteration of Royals ain’t touching Greinke, unless he gets whimsical about his time in KC and grooves one in there to Mike Moustakas.

3. Bob Gibson (1968); 47 IP

Then: Among the most terrifying people to ever hold a baseball, who posted possibly the greatest season by a pitcher in history—1.12 ERA, 28 complete games, 13 shutouts. The 2017 Royals are toast against Peak Gibson.

Now: 81 years old. Could probably still fan Brandon Moss, Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon with relative ease.

2. Don Drysdale (1968); 58 IP

Then: Thought to put this record out of reach with six straight shutouts. 31 years old in 1968, with a heightened mound to boot. Drysdale was a good pitcher, but this wasn’t his prime and if you lower the mound, the Royals can probably get to him within 58 innings.

Now: Dead since 1993. That’ll keep runs off the board.

1. Orel Hershiser (1988); 59 IP

Then: NL Cy Young, 41 straight scoreless innings on the road, under pennant chase conditions. And he technically brought this streak to 67 innings in the postseason. Good luck, 2017 Royals offense actively falling into a crater.

Now: The most interesting ‘now’ case study, Hershiser hasn’t thrown a pitch in 17 years. And yet…he’d still probably toss up some zeroes against the currently hapless (and runless) Royals.

Although this is (mostly) tongue-in-cheek—we have fun here—I’d like to reiterate that the Royals have been historically terrible for a week now. Knowing this bizarre team, they’ll put up 25 runs Tuesday and Wednesday. Fun times! Pass the Prozac.

The Royals were rewarded with the success of Danny Duffy last season and gave lefty Matt Strahm an introduction in the bullpen despite his likely future coming from a starting role. That move could pay off, particularly with the recent loss of Yordano Ventura, and could force the Royals hand and push the lefty into the rotation to begin the year.

With the move of Strahm from the bullpen, would there be a starting pitcher from the minors who might profile in the bullpen to get his feet wet in preparation for a future starting role?

One pitcher who I had never looked at in this role prior, but suddenly am intrigued by, is 2011 draftee, Jake Junis. The right-handed pitcher has been on a slow development path in the Royals organization, starting or piggybacking in all 100 appearances of his minor league career. The development has been slow, but as a pitcher from a cold weather area like Rock Falls, IL, that shouldn’t be all that surprising. The biggest thing for Junis is that the pitches have come forward over that time and he’s nearly ready to compete for a starting spot towards the back end of a rotation with just some fine tuning needed in his change up to put him in that spot.

To this point in his career, Junis has shown very good control, walking just 64 in 308.2 innings over the past two seasons. He does this with a solid 91-94 mph fastball from the starting role and a above average low 80’s curveball that combine with his other two pitches to earn nearly 8 SO/9 during those past two seasons. Would those two solid pitches tick up enough to become a dynamic piece in the pen?

In my opinion, Junis with his broad shoulders and strong 225 lbs. body could easily tick his fastball into the 96-97 mph range in a one-inning role while maintaining the hard bite on his curveball that he’s able to dirt and move in and out to earn swings and misses. That curve was rated as the best curveball in the system which is saying something, considering Josh Staumont’s curve is rated as a future plus pitch also.

It’s Jake’s ability to mix speeds in the low 80’s to mid 70’s with his curve, while manipulating it to perform like his slider at times with hard darting movement and controlling it to different quadrants of the zone that allow it to play up and well off of his fastball. Those two pitches, combined with small mixing of his change up and slider, could allow him to help the major league pen in a sixth and seventh inning spot. Pitching out of the pen would also allow he and Eiland to refine things with other pitches to prepare him for a starting spot either towards the end of ’17 or the beginning of 2018.

A couple of the Royals best developed starters in the past decade, Zack Greinke and Duffy, required stints in the bullpen to refine things before settling more comfortably in the rotation. Working things in an opposite direction for some like Strahm and Junis could help iron out those wrinkles prior to fitting into rotation spots further down the road for the Royals.

Adding to the Farm

MLB announced the draft slot values for the upcoming 2017 MLB draft on Thursday. The Royals with the 14th overall pick will also have the 14th largest draft pool, registering in at $7,691,500 not including any allowed overages. Their pick at the 14th slot has been given a $3,549,800 value while their 52nd pick is worth $1,233,900. The last player the Royals gave $3.5m to in the draft was Sean Manaea who they picked 34th overall in the 2013 draft.

The Royals are in their second and final year of a international bonus pool penalty in which they are unable to spend over $300k on any individual player, meaning that their $5.75m value there is likely best used in trades.

Main Photo of Jake Junis via Minda Haas Kuhlmann Flickr  

Here’s a look at their Cactus League numbers:

Yikes.

I’ll spare you the long article about why spring training stats don’t matter, but I will mention that you might notice the inning totals are nearly as small of a sample as you can find. And hey, look at the strikeout to walk ratios, especially Ventura’s. Those would certainly play in the regular season. So take comfort in the fact that these numbers really don’t mean much and that Kansas City is a much better place to pitch than Arizona.

Anyway, my point here was to take a look at some somewhat extreme spring training numbers and then how they matched up with their regular season numbers. And yes, this is not to say that pitchers can’t springboard a great spring to a great season or a terrible spring to a terrible season, but it is to say that one doesn’t necessarily continue.

2006 Mike Wood

2007 Brian Bannister

2009 Zack Greinke

2009 Kyle Davies

2010 Luke Hochevar

2010 Joakim Soria

2012 Luis Mendoza

2012 Luke Hochevar

2013 Donnie Joseph

2013 James Shields

2014 Danny Duffy

2015 Jeremy Guthrie

2015 Edinson Volquez

So what’s in a number? We don’t really have the answer to that question because spring training stats just don’t have a ton of meaning. There might be a little correlation in there with the strikeout to walk ratio numbers, but then you look an see Hochevar’s 21:2 ratio in 2012 and it makes you question absolutely everything.

I think the Royals rotation has a chance to be a problem for this team just like the 2015 Royals had issues with their rotation. I also think that the organization is prepared to deal with those issues if and when they come up, so I’m not as worried as I might be if they hadn’t won the World Series last year with a bottom five in the AL rotation. Personally, I still think this unit is better than last year’s, but they definitely didn’t show it in spring training.

I guess we’ll find out soon enough if the members of the rotation are more like the guys listed above or if they’re more like Bruce Chen in 2012. I’ll hope for the former and be mentally prepared for the latter, but, hey, there’s certainly hope.