In the just completed six game homestand against the Rays and Yankees, the Royals held the lead just once. On Friday, they jumped out to a 1-0 lead in their half of the first and held it all the way through nine. In four of the six games, they trailed before they even came to the plate in their half of the first.

We are now 46 games into the season, meaning we are well past the quarter point and beyond the 40 or so games Dayton Moore likes to have in hand before he renders judgment on his squad. What have we learned in the first quarter of the 2018 season?

The Royals are dreadful.

None of this should be a surprise. Well, maybe the .304 winning percentage. That translates to 49 wins. Forty nine! At least they’re interesting. Except when they’re not.

Maybe this is how things play out when the “contenders” meet the “tankers.*” The competitive imbalance is so real in the American League that when the Royals face teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros, it’s bound to result in a bloodletting of tiresome proportions. There was nothing remotely interesting in these weekend games, unless you are a fan of counting down to the inevitable. The only drama on Sunday was whether Sonny Gray, he of the 71 ERA+ entering the game, could finish off a perfect game. Or a shutout. (The answer to both questions was a tepid, “No.”)

*Except the Royals aren’t trying to tank!

Duffy “leads” Royals starters in H/9 (11.1), BB/9 (4.4) and HR/9 (2.5). Taken alone, any one of those numbers would be cause for some concern. Taken together and you have a five alarm fire. 

The Royals need to make a decision on Duffy. He can go on the disabled list with a sore shoulder or a stiff elbow or a jammed eyelid. That buys him a mental break it sure seems like he could use. Shut things down for a bit, gather your thoughts and come back hopefully a little refreshed in an attempt to get your season back on track.

The other option is moving him to the bullpen. It worked before, so why not try it again? The Royals are smart enough to frame it not as a demotion, rather the opportunity to get things right. Duffy is too valuable to this team to flounder in the rotation. And he’s too valuable to pitch just one or two innings at a time in relief. 

So the Royals and Duffy have to come to some sort of agreement on a plan to put things on a more positive track. Apparently, Ned Yost is against sending Duffy to the pen. “That’s not happening,” Yost said after Saturday’s game. “He’s a major league starter.” At this point, that statement seems to stretch the boundaries of reality.

Yost teases he has some ideas on how to help Duffy, but he’s not going to let anyone know, lest opposing teams take advanatge. Kind of like they’re doing right now.

The point is, the Royals need to take action to try to solve the Duffy enigma. We’ve seen enough to know doing nothing is not an option.

(Recall I am pessimistic on Duffy’s future. He’s not the Royals ace. Not anymore. And it’s highly unlikely he will ever pitch good enough again to reclaim his position. Still, Duffy needs to find his mojo and settle in as a hopefully competent middle to back of the rotation starter. The kind of guy who gives you five innings and allows four runs and you feel good about that. In other words, a recalibration of expectations are in order.)

Meanwhile, you surely saw Clay Buchholz throw five innings of two hit ball for the Diamondbacks on Sunday. The Diamondbacks hold the top spot of the NL West and are slumping, yet have playoff aspirations. Buchholz, as you recall, was signed by the Royals prior to the season to a minor league contract. He had an opt-out in his contract that would allow him to be released on May 1 if he wasn’t on the major league roster. The opt-out was exercised and he was snapped up by Arizona.

While Royals starting pitchers are the accelerant to the American League spark, it beggars the question as to why, exactly, was Buchholz even signed in the first place. He threw 16 innings for the Royals between Double and Triple-A before his opt-out came into play. They had to know, given the date of his initial signing, that Buchholz would have close to that number of innings under his belt at that point in the season. Look, I get letting Junis and Skogland get their innings at the major league level. It would be disingenuous of me to argue for Buchholz ahead of either, given I’m wholly in the corner of Team Tank. Yet at the same time, inexpensive veterans like Buchholz are exactly the type of player a team like the Royals should be exploring. It’s unlikely such a player would return anything on the trade market, but as long as there’s a chance they could spin a little thread into even the tiniest piece of gold, doesn’t it make sense for the Royals to give him a big league look? Alas, Buchholz isn’t going to jump ahead of the overpriced and underperforming triumvirate of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel. Maybe Buchholz was brought on board to hedge against the injury bet. 

At any rate, l’affaire Buchholz is typical Royals. Sometimes, it just seems like they don’t have much of an idea of what they want to do. Don’t misunderstand, Buchholz is a fringe starter at this point and would have made minimal impact in the Royals rotation. But what, exactly, is the plan? Do the Royals themselves have any idea what they’re doing in these early stages of their rebuild? (They’re not tanking!) 

The same question could be raised about how they handle Duffy at this point going forward. They say they have some ideas, they indicate they have a plan to move forward. But do they really? And should we believe them when they say they do?

Along with the return of the losses, distrust is making a comeback as well.

White Sox Vitals

White Sox vs. Royals

Offense

Pitching

White Sox Projected Lineup

Pitching Matchups

Thursday

I’m officially fascinated by Giolito. He’s now thrown a few games in the last three seasons and they all have been so different. His first time in the big leagues, he got hit hard, didn’t strike anyone out and walked too many. Then last year when he came to the White Sox, he was tough to hit, had control and at least had a few more strikeouts. And now this year, he’s walked 19 in 20 innings and has only struck out nine. He’s also hit four batters. The guy is an absolute mess. His fastball velocity remains down, averaging less than 92 MPH, but it’s still been somewhat effective, though he’s walked 17 hitters with it. His changeup has been sort of mauled in a limited sample with three doubles given up in seven at bats. He gave up three runs on four hits over six innings in his first start of the year against the Royals, but he walked four and struck out just one. It was a sign of things to come. His last start was brutal with nine runs allowed in two innings to go along with seven walks. Yeesh.

With it late enough in the season, DRA makes its debut on Baseball Prospectus for the year and in the series previews! I think there might be some leveling off it needs to do because I feel like 4.57 is a little high for him. He’s pitched as well as an ace, though. I don’t think he is that, but he’s been really good for almost a half-season of pitching now, going 9-2 with a 3.13 ERA over his last 89 innings dating back to last season with just 14 walks in that time. There’s likely some regression coming, and not just because a 2.03 ERA isn’t sustainable for hardly anyone but because he’s stranding runners at an incredible rate (90.4 percent). Even so, he looks the part of a force in a big league rotation and hasn’t disappointed after a great spring raised the hype on him considerably. This will be the first time in his career he faces the White Sox.

Friday

Lopez, also originally from the Nationals, has been almost as interesting as Giolito. The thought was that his big fastball and lacking secondary pitches might play better in the bullpen, but he had a very promising showing after coming up last year because he was able to improve on his control. He also struck out fewer hitters last year, but had a better strikeout to walk ratio in general. This year, he’s striking out almost a batter per inning, but he’s allowed 15 walks in his 24 innings. Of course, he’s only allowed 12 hits. All in all, it leads to some really solid numbers, but I’m not so sure it’s sustainable. Somehow he’s averaging six innings per start with all those walks and strikeouts and hasn’t been overly taxed, but I feel like that’s going to change at some point if the peripherals don’t. But the one thing he has going for him and always will is the fact that his stuff is so good that even when he’s behind in the count, he’s still in good shape because he’s allowed just a .174 average to hitters who had the advantage. Mike Moustakas has taken him deep a couple times and Whit Merrifield is 3 for 9 against him, so they’ve seen him well and are hitters to watch against him.

I officially don’t know what to make of Danny Duffy. His velocity, while better recently, is still down for the season. His command looks like rookie year Duffy. But he’s also been very successful at times. I still think he’s battling an injury, but I’ve been wrong before here. Even though his velocity is down for the year, it’s been better in his last couple starts with his four-seamer averaging 93.6 MPH in Toronto and 93.3 MPH in Detroit. He hasn’t even really been hit all that hard on the whole. It’s just that command has led to way too many walks and way too many grooved pitches, though it’s worth mentioning that he’s only allowed one home run since the Opening Day debacle against these very White Sox. I’d love to tell you that I know what we’re going to see from Duffy in this one, but I don’t think anyone, including Danny himself, knows. Jose Abreu and Yolmer Sanchez are the two White Sox who have hit him best, so watch out for them in this one.

Saturday – Game One

Fulmer is another young White Sox starter struggling with control. He’s thrown 18 innings and walked 10 in them, which is pretty consistent with the rate for his whole career. He’s not especially deceptive, only eliciting two swings and misses in his last start, though he somehow only allowed two runs in six innings in a win over the Mariners. And if we’re being fair, six of his 10 walks came in one start against the Rays early this season, so maybe he shouldn’t be looked at as having control issues. Fulmer mixes a 93-95 MPH fastball with a changeup, cutter and occasional curve. So far this season, hitters have been able to take the fastball deep and have hit .304 with a .478 SLG against that cutter, so those are the pitches to key on. He’s also been hit very hard by right-handed hitters to the tune of a.283/.358/.543 line. That reverse split is in line with his career numbers, so this is a game where Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Merrifield might have to carry the offense.

Prior to his last start, Skoglund was coming off the second best start of his career and I mentioned that it’s a problem that the second best start of his career was allowing five runs in five innings. Well move over that start because a new second sheriff is in town. He gave up just four runs in five innings in his last start, so at this rate, he’ll be a competent starter by mid-May. All jokes aside, I still don’t see it with Skoglund. He has middling stuff and average, at best, command. Which is weird because that was sort of his calling card in the minors. The guy has given up 11 hits per nine and has a WHIP of 1.568. There’s some underlying numbers that show maybe he isn’t quite this bad, but if he’s giving up that many base runners, he’s just not going to be successful. Skoglund did face the White Sox last year, allowing three runs on five hits in three innings with two walks.

Saturday – Game Two

We will update the White Sox starter with information when it becomes available.

It looks for all the world like Buchholz will make his Royals debut in this one after a couple solid starts in the minors to begin the season. He made two starts last year, pitching just 7.1 innings and allowing 16 hits and three walks. Yikes. But, that said, he isn’t that far removed from a really nice stretch of pitching in 2016, throwing 58.2 innings in his final 19 games with a 3.22 ERA and allowing just 47 hits in that time. Can he be a serviceable big league starter? I honestly don’t know and I honestly doubt it. If his velocity is up into the 90s, he could be successful, and maybe he can figure out how to pitch without velocity like many before him have, but like any reclamation project, it’s a longshot. But hey, they’ve come through before. He’s allowed home runs to Abreu and Anderson in his career, but that’s the only hit Abreu has off him in 11 career at bats.

Sunday

Remember when the Royals signed Volstad? I barely do. He’s somehow just 31 years old and is now a decade removed from his rookie year that showed so much promise. But he’s still kicking and making starts for a beleaguered White Sox rotation. The one thing he’s done well his whole career is avoiding the free pass, and he’s doing that well again this season, though he’s pretty much as hittable as he’s always been. He relies heavily on two pitches, a sinker and a curve, and both have plus potential. The sinker has done its job this season in his 12 innings of work, limiting opponents to just a .035 ISO and helping him to an insane 68.6 percent ground ball rate. He does throw a changeup, but It’s really only for show. He made his first start on Tuesday against the Mariners and threw just 66 pitches, which is only one fewer than he threw in his only minor league appearance this season, so he’s likely not stretched out to go more than 80 to 85 pitches, which the Royals should try to take advantage of.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee Kennedy makes this start after leaving his last start following a line drive off his foot, but he’s there for now. He was looking fairly sharp before getting hit with that ball and then giving up a monster home run to Travis Shaw. Injury or not, that’s two straight subpar starts for Kennedy after a fantastic start to the season, so there is cause for concern given his rough year last season. This’ll be a big start for him after pitching very well against the White Sox earlier this season in a game Brandon Maurer blew late. Like so many Royals pitchers, Abreu has been a thorn in his side with a .429/.455/.857 line against him in 22 plate appearances. Davidson has also homered against him as has Kevan Smith.

These are two bad teams, and while the White Sox won both games earlier this year, the Royals should have come away with one of the wins if not for Gas Can Maurer. I think this will be a really ugly series and if baseball could award wins at will, both teams might go 0-5, but I’m feeling optimistic here and think the Royals actually take three of five and feel pretty good about themselves following the series.

BPKC Hitter of the Day: Cal Jones 2-5, 2R, 2b, HR, 3 RBI

BPKC Pitcher of the Day: Nolan Watson 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 4-4 GO-FO, 88p/55k

Transactions – Lexington placed Dennicher Carrasco and Ricky Aracena on injured reserve. In their spots, they added Matt Morales and Brewer Hicklen. Omaha added Clay Buccholz while optioning Zach Lovvorn to NW Arkansas and placing Seth Manness on the Idaho Falls roster.

Lexington Legends 9, Hagerstown Suns 2

After relievers blew leads in the last two games, the Legends pitching staff straightened things out while the offense kept slugging for a win to secure a series split. Nolan Watson rebounded after a difficult last outing to toss five innings of one-run baseball (0 ER), giving up just an unearned run on four singles and a pair of walks. The righty whuffed five as he hit the zone with 55 of 88 pitches on the afternoon. A four-run fourth inning gave Watson a lead with his batterymate Sebastian Rivero connecting on his first home run of the season, a two-run number that scored Jeison Guzman. That lead stood up until the eighth when Cal Jones connected on his first longball to push the score to 8-1. A Nick Pratto double would add a tally while extending his multi-hit streak to four games before Lexington goes back on the road to Asheville.

Nick Pratto: 2-4, 2b, RBI, BB
Jeison Guzman: 3-4, 3R
Sebastian Rivero: 2-4, 2R, HR, 2 RBI

Frederick Keys 6, Wilmington Blue Rocks 2

The Rocks were unable to finish off the four game series sweep of the Keys as the offense struggled to do damage on Sunday. Just three hits from Wilmington along with three walks with Frederick pitchers piling up the groundouts, collecting fourteen of them on the day. An Angelo Castellanos error in the sixth helped break a 2-2 tie before a pair of home runs off reliever Grant Gavin put the game out of reach.

Khalil Lee: 0-3, RBI
Emmanuel Rivera: 1-4, R
Jace Vines: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 11-2 GO-FO, 77p/50k

Tulsa Drillers 8, NW Arkansas Naturals 6

A close game got away from the Naturals when one of their relievers had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. NW Arkansas scored a pair in the first inning off hard-throwing Yadier Alvarez when Donnie Dewees singled in a pair with two out. That lead held up until the fifth inning when an error by Elier Hernandez to start the inning may have made it difficult for Glenn Sparkman to get things together, giving up the lead with a single and a triple that plated two runs to put NW Arkansas behind 3-2. The Naturals would tie the game in the seventh and again in the eighth, but in both innings home runs off reliever Franco Terrero would put them back down. The right-handed reliever struggled mightily, giving up four home runs in just two innings of work, allowing five runs to take the loss after a comeback bid by the offense fell short.

Jason Adam: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 31p/18k
Nicky Lopez: 2-3, 2R, 2BB, SB (4)
Donnie Dewees: 1-4, 2 RBI, BB, SB (3)

Omaha Storm Chasers 4, Nashville Sounds 1

Three players that will likely be Royals by the end of next week paced the way to a Chasers win on Sunday. Starting pitcher Clay Buchholz continued his preparation for a shot at the Royals major league roster with 6.1 innings of efficient pitching. The right-hander, who says he’s pitching pain-free for the first time in a couple of years, worked around the lineup with relative ease, giving up just a solo home run to Franklin Barreto while getting nine groundouts. On the offensive side, a pair of RBI doubles by Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, in their final tune up before heading back to Kansas City, plated three runs in the sixth inning to give Omaha a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Catcher Nick Dini tagged a solo home run one inning later to give the offense their final margin of victory. Scott Barlow worked the final two innings to earn the save.

Clay Buchholz: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 9-2 GO-FO, 84p/54k
Alex Gordon: 1-3, 2b, RBI
Salvador Perez: 1-3, R, 2b, 2 RBI

Boxscores from Sunday

Monday Probables
Omaha – Jon Dziedzic (lhp) 0-1 1.50 ERA 1.22 WHIP
NW Arkansas – Foster Griffin (lhp) 1-1 3.09 ERA 1.54 WHIP