• The Royals have the potential for a very awkward outfield logjam if their injured players actually return. Brian Goodwin could be back any time, including today, so there’ll be a decision to be made soon. Jorge Soler’s slow recovery makes this a little easier because he seems destined to be out until September, but the Royals could potentially have Goodwin, Soler, Alex Gordon, Rosell Herrera, Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio. The concern I have is that Bonifacio is going to end up as the odd man out because of the way he’s played. He’s hit just .209/.293/.336 and that’s after starting by hitting .306/.358/.510 in his first 13 games. He did go two for three with a walk and a double on Wednesday night, so maybe he’s starting to come around again, but he’s looked absolutely lost. The last month and a half or so of the season is really important to basically all the Royals outfielders other than Gordon because they’re fighting for playing time in 2019. We’ve talked about Herrera’s versatility being a big key for them, but even so, that’s six outfielder with Elier Hernandez knocking on the door in Omaha and potentially needing to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason as well as Khalil Lee and Kort Peterson just a couple steps away. This is a pretty good problem to have, but it’ll be interesting to see how this all gets sorted out.
• I touched on this a few weeks ago when I talked about Blake Perkins and his ridiculous walk rate and .400-plus OBP since coming to the Royals, but with Kelvin Herrera hitting the disabled list this week, I’m completely ready to walk back my criticism of the deal. Another factor in that is that Kelvin Gutierrez has been really good for Northwest Arkansas over the last month or so. I haven’t been able to confirm this yet, but it’s worth mentioning in this spot that I had heard he was working with a swing coach to try to generate more loft and add the power that he had been lacking in his game. Before last night, he had hit .340/.359/.530 over his last 26 games. The walk rate is obviously pretty atrocious, but a .190 ISO will play and he’d even hit two home runs in August already heading into last night’s action. I thought at the time there was at least a chance they thought Herrera was a ticking time bomb and wanted to move him as quickly as possible, and now that he’s on the disabled list and has been somewhere between average and bad with the Nationals, I’m believing that a lot more. There’s plenty to criticize Dayton Moore and the front office about over the last couple years and especially the last few months, but I believe this trade is not one of those things.
• I’m not sure what the point is where results weigh heavily enough to change opinions and I know we’re not there yet on Heath Fillmyer, but the results we’ve seen from him have been pretty darn good. I know that 21 strikeouts and 17 walks in 37.1 innings is a recipe for future disaster, but you have to at least be impressed with the way he’s handled himself. He’s sort of like Jakob Junis in that he really relies on a slider to be successful, but it’s been excellent for him with a 33.3 percent whiff rate. His changeup has been very good too with a 7 percent whiff rate and .190 average against it. I don’t think I’d be going out on a limb to say that Fillmyer won’t really be a factor with any team at any point in his career, but given the success he’s had with the slider and changeup, he’s definitely a pitcher who could benefit from using his fastball less, a tactic the Astros (and others) use to their advantage. In his Wednesday start against the Cubs, his curve was also very good, even though he didn’t get a single swing and miss on it. Like I said, I still don’t believe in Filly long term, but he has some things to build on and if he does, maybe he could be a viable option on a pitching staff in some capacity. It’s at least a lot more likely today than it was two months ago.
• The Royals don’t have many August trade candidates, but they do have a few guys on the 40-man roster who I suppose could possibly get moved over the next couple weeks. The most likely is Lucas Duda who could provide actual value for a contender as a lefty bat off the bench, but in the likely scenario that none of them are actually dealt, I think the Royals should really just release all of Duda, Alcides Escobar, Drew Butera and Jason Hammel toward the end of the month. Before you scoff and/or say that’s super-obvious, if the Royals can’t get anything in a trade for any of them releasing them is actually sort of a very Dayton Moore thing to do because it would give them the opportunity to latch on with a team and maybe even be on their playoff roster. I’m not sure why a team would want any of them, but hey, you never know. And obviously the important part from the Royals perspective is it opens up some 40-man roster spots to be able to give them to guys like Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady and Nicky Lopez for September call-ups (if they’re to get one). I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it definitely should, and I do think it actually might.

Note: All stats in this article are through Tuesday’s action.

Who is Good?

The Diamondbacks rank as the best team in baseball in terms of framing runs with 19.1, which is a decent amount more than the Dodgers who are second at 16.9. Man, it can’t be fun to be a Padres hitter in that division with the best two teams in baseball getting extra strikes all over the place. The Rockies are seventh with 6.9, so the NL West is a framing bloodbath. The rest of the top 10 teams are Toronto, Boston, Houston, Cleveland, the aforementioned, Rockies, Seattle, Philadelphia and the Yankees.

It’s not a perfect correlation to ERA success, but six of those 10 are top 10 in baseball in ERA. Seven of the 10 are top 10 in DRA. And seven of the 10 are top 10 in FIP. Sometimes the team totals are brought down by a backup, but of the top 10 teams in ERA, all have them have at least one catcher in the top 30 in framing runs. So yeah, it matters.

Who is Bad?

The worst team in baseball in framing runs is actually the Cubs, who are quite good and rank seventh in baseball in ERA as a staff. They also rank 20^th in DRA, so take that for what it’s worth. But again, this isn’t always a perfect correlation. And second worst is your Kansas City Royals, worth -13.9 framing runs over the course of the season. The bottom 10 teams in framing runs are San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Mets, Cincinnati, the White Sox, Texas, Royals and Cubs. There’s a lot of range there in team quality and pitching staff quality, but they’re at the bottom.

Royals Factor

You’re reading this because you likely want to know what it means for the Royals. Just think if Danny Duffy had gotten the call against Jake Cave the other day or any number of instances where it sure seemed like the Royals got the short end of the stick. Well try this on for size. The Arizona Diamondbacks have had 50 pitches that were clearly graded as outside the strike zone called strikes. The Royals have had 27. That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s 85 percent more, nearly twice as many. That helps pitchers big time.

But the real value of framing can come on the borderline pitches. These are the pitches that are right around the edge of the strike zone, either just within it or just on the outside of it. This is where we see the most arguments from hitters, pitchers, managers, fans, broadcasters, passersby, etc. The Diamondbacks have gotten 1,685 called strikes on those pitches. The Royals have gotten 1,405.

Diamondbacks:

Royals:

Whoa.

It’s not all Zack Greinke either, though he’s a master of his craft. He’s thrown 13.6 percent of the Diamondbacks pitches this season and he has had 18 percent of their non-strikes called strikes, but only 15 percent or so of the borderline pitches were called strikes. So he helps, but not enough to write it off as him carrying a team in this statistic.

For some more reference, the Dodgers have had 39 non-strikes get called for strikes and 1,570 borderline pitches. The Cubs? They have just 23 non-strikes in their favor and actually have done well on the borderline with 1,550 borderline pitches called for them.

The point is that this is a problem. I brought it up in Friday Notes a couple weeks ago, but if the Royals are going to be counting on young pitching over the next few years, they’re going to need to find a catcher who can help steal them a few extra strikes. Well, now hold up. That’s not entirely true. If they can build a staff of swing and miss pitchers, that would help too. But based on the 9.2 percent whiff rate the staff has posted this year (league average is 10.7 percent and they rank second to last), I’m not sure that’s coming just yet.

The issue is that Salvador Perez isn’t the guy to steal strikes. Of 102 catchers rated, Perez ranks 100^th in framing runs at -7.7. And because I know you were wondering, Drew Butera ranks 98^th with -6.6. Royals pitching has been bad this year, but they certainly haven’t been helped much in this realm.

This isn’t me saying that Perez isn’t good enough to catch for a good team. He obviously was the rock on a World Series champion in a year where he ranked 90^th out of 109, but he was also worth a much more palatable -2.7 runs. And he obviously brings more value behind the plate than just framing pitches as he has one of the best arms back there of any catcher. This year, he ranks at the top of baseball in throwing runs with 1.0. I think that metric is a little faulty because I wonder how many attempts just don’t happen because he’s back there, but even so, it highlights how important framing is compared to throwing.

But never fear, Royals fans, there is good news. Drew Butera is a free agent after the season. That’s good news in itself, but the icing on that cake is that Cam Gallagher can frame a little. He ranks 41^st this season, but has a great reputation in that role and should be the backup catcher next season. I believe it would behoove the Royals for development purposes at the very least to give Gallagher at least 60 games behind the plate next season to let him turn some balls into strikes and get some of the young pitching to find maybe a little more success. It doesn’t hurt that Gallagher isn’t a zero with the bat like Butera and that he probably has some familiarity with a lot of the pitchers. And hey, it’s not like Salvy couldn’t use the days off.

The point here is that framing makes a big difference. Maybe stealing a few extra strikes won’t put the Royals in the playoffs in 2019 (okay, no maybe about it; it definitely won’t), but it could help in numerous ways for the years when they are fighting for that spot. Teams like the Royals can’t be passing up opportunities to get a little off the edges. You never know when it might pay off.

• You can’t make a ton of judgments on one game. I don’t think Matt Davidson is going to win the MVP. I don’t think Brian Flynn is going to run a 20.25 ERA all season. There are more things I don’t think, but to go over all of them will take way too much time. One thing I do worry about is Danny Duffy. Spring training is what it is, but even though it doesn’t really matter, you’d like to see some success. Duffy struggled. And then he left a start with shoulder issues. I know Ned Yost said the velocity didn’t drop yesterday, and it was 93 at times, but he wasn’t throwing the gas he usually does. Maybe it was just really cold and that held him back. Maybe it was just that he was tentative because of the shoulder issue the other day. Whatever it was, he didn’t have enough, and he had command issues even when he was mowing down the White Sox. When he got to the fourth inning, he stopped missing outside the zone and started missing in the happy zone, and the White Sox absolutely pummeled him. I’m not a doctor, in spite of what you may have heard on Twitter, but I just have a hard time believing something isn’t wrong with Duffy. I’m not saying it’s a big issue and I’m not even saying it’s one he can’t pitch through, but he didn’t look right to me and when you add that to what happened at the end of spring training, it has me worried. With Nate Karns on the disabled list already and it seems like headed for the bullpen when he returns, the rotation is already hanging by a thread, but the Royals need to get Duffy right sooner than later.
• The Salvador Perez injury took everyone by surprise on Wednesday night, and it’s a tough blow, but I don’t see it as crushing. Part of why I don’t see it as crushing is that this team isn’t going anywhere, so I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world for Perez to get some time off in 2018. I suggested awhile back that the Royals sign Jonathan Lucroy for a bargain to get Perez out from behind the plate a bit in a lost season, and that would have been the preferable way to do it, but as long as there aren’t long-term ramifications from his torn MCL, this’ll work too. If Perez is out the full six weeks and then needs a rehab stint, he probably comes back around May 14 or so. That’s 41 games, so he can play a max of 121 games, which would be his lowest total since 2012 when he missed a ton of time with the first knee injury. Add in regular days off once he comes back and even if he doesn’t have any issues, he’s probably catching 100 games this year, which is just fine with me. If you’re wondering what it costs the Royals in terms of wins and losses, I’m a Cam Gallagher believer, so I think it’s maybe a win, and that’s from rounding.
• Speaking of Gallagher, if I was running the team, he’d be the guy to get the bulk of the playing time while Perez is out. I don’t think Butera is anything special, so that’s a big part of it, but I also believe that Gallagher can be a plus for this team. He’s not a star offensively, but he does do some things that I think will translate pretty well to the big leagues. He doesn’t have much pop, but he can work a walk and he makes decent contact. Tucker Barnhart from the Reds isn’t a bad comp for what he can do offensively, but he also brings some defensive skills to the table. He calls a good game, he’s a good framer and he throws pretty well too. I’m not here to tell you Gallagher is a star in the making or anything like that, but to me, he gives the Royals better production than Butera. At least we’ll get to see him when Jake Junis takes the hill (probably).
• Just a hunch, but I think the bullpen might be a bit of a problem this year. I don’t really have anything to add or any particular insights, but that was really ugly. I guess I’ll just cling to my idea that once things work out a little bit as the season progresses that it’ll look a lot better in a couple months. Until then, though? Yeesh. For some other thoughts on Opening Day, it was very cold. My feet just finally completely warmed up about 25 minutes ago. I think it’ll be pretty cool to see the 50th year stuff throughout the season, and I imagine there might be some tears remembering the good ol’ days, some of which weren’t actually all that long ago. One thing I know for sure is that win or lose, and they’ll do a lot more losing, it’ll be fun to share the season with all of you.

As far as I can tell, there are three reasons for this. They are, in order of importance:

1. Hair flips
2. Mop-up relief pitching
3. Backup catching

Let’s begin.

Hair Flips

Scouting is an inexact science, but there is no disputing Butera is blessed with 80 grade hair. There are, however, varying degrees of a successful hair flip.

This gif teases us. The hair escapes from it’s helmet prison, joyously experiencing it’s freedom. However, Butera’s form is off on this day. He keeps the helmet elevated, so only those on the first base side of the stadium can experience the glory of the hair flip. This effectively cheats those seated behind the plate and on the third base side of the field. Also, the batting gloves…really? Can he not take a moment to transfer the gloves to his non-helmet removing hand? It’s difficult to overshadow the glory of the hair, but in this case the gloves are an unwelcome distraction.

Butera keeps the gloves on his hand and lowers his helmet in the above gif. This gives everyone the opportunity to revel in the glory of the flip. Except something is amiss here. There isn’t enough bounce in his locks! Why is this the case? It can’t be the shampoo or conditioner. It’s difficult to imagine that he would skip the routine maintenance and care of his most important asset. It appears as though he has a fresh cut. Perhaps a little too much was taken off the top. His barber should be on probation.

Relief Pitching

Shoeni Ohtani is all the rage this winter, but the Royals have a two way player of their own on the roster. (No, I just didn’t compare Butera to Ohtani. Although maybe I should.) Sadly, Butera did not make it to the mound last summer. Not for lack of opportunity. With a thin starting rotation and a bullpen that never seemed to hit its stride, Butera could have made at least an appearance in each month. Ned Yost is probably saving him for a more crucial sort of blowout. Or something.

In Butera’s longest outing of 2016, he flashed a fastball in the lower 90s, a change and some sort of knuckleball.

His two-seamer (seen here in a strikeout of Houston’s Marwin Gonzalez) has some wicked kind of fade.

Something tells me there will be a few more chances again for Butera in 2018. It’s like a seasonal bucket list: Butera must pitch.

Backup Catching

Really? Salvador Perez needs a backup?

Hold on. With the Royals seeking to (finally) reduce the workload of Perez, Butera saw his most action behind the plate since his 2014 season with the Dodgers. It’s kind a shame he couldn’t capitalize on the increase in playing time. After hitting .285/.328/.480 with a .268 TAv in 133 plate appearances in 2016, he dipped to .227/.284/.319 and a .223 TAv in 177 plate appearances.

With the bat, Butera has decent enough knowledge of the strike zone and generally offers at good pitches. With an above league average contact rate of north of 80 percent, he doesn’t see many pitches per plate appearance (he had a 4.07 P/PA last year). His line drive rate of 24.6 percent and his hard contact rate of 20.5 percent were both career highs. And his .286 BABIP was above his career average of .247.

(This seems like the perfect moment to celebrate Butera’s role in Royals history. With one out in the top of the eighth inning of the fourth game of the ALDS against Houston in 2015, Butera came to the plate with runners on second and third and one out. The Royals had already tied the game on the Kendrys Morales chopper up the middle and Butera worked Luke Gregerson for a 10 pitch walk to load the bases. The next batter, Alex Gordon, grounded out to second, but it allowed the go ahead run to score. It was the epitome of the “Keep The Line Moving” mantra.)

Defensively, the metrics weren’t kind to Butera with his increase in innings caught. He graded as a worse pitch framer than Salvador Perez, who routinely ranks in the bottom quarter among regular backstops. He caught nine out of 36 would be basestealers, good for a 25 percent success rate which was the same rate for the second consecutive season and slightly below league average. The one metric where Butera did shine was in blocking runs. He was worth 1.7 blocking runs last summer, which was the fifth best result among catchers with over 3,000 framing chances. (For reference, Perez was worth 1.3 blocking runs, which ranked seventh.)

Butera signed a two-year extension after the 2016 season. He earned $1.5 million last year and is slated to make $2.3 million in 2018. That’s a bit aggressive for a team like the Royals, especially now they are looking to trim the payroll, but we know the organization values guys who fit into the clubhouse and Butera certainly seems to be happy with his role and his place within the team.

And with the Royals (maybe) committed to giving Perez more rest, there will continue to be opportunity for Butera to make an impact behind the plate. And with a pitching staff that hasn’t seen improvement (so far) from last season’s group, there could be chances for him on the mound. Let’s hope. The Royals’ modest version of the two-way player could be worth the investment.

• The Royals were committed to giving Alex Gordon some time on the bench to “reboot” as Ned Yost puts it. Of course, he started Thursday, so it’s hard to say they’re actually committed to it, but let’s pretend like it was just that they wanted to get him in there against a guy he’d had success against in the past. I’ll say this first: It’s 100 percent the right move. I’ll say this second: It blows. I know there are plenty who have never been a fan of Gordon, a stance I will never understand, but it’s out there. But for me, I’ve always loved Gordon and was thrilled when they gave him the largest contract in team history. Now, it looks like a disaster. The question is what they can do next. The answer nobody wants to hear is that they can hope that this season can be put behind him and he can be a productive player again in 2018 and 2019 because he’s not going anywhere, not right now anyway. Is there a way they can help him to get back to being a productive hitter? I can’t give you an answer for certain, but my method would be to find someone to work with him this winter. We know he’s a hard worker and will put in the time. Spend whatever it takes on that person who can bring out the productive Alex Gordon, even if it’s just a portion of what he once was. The defense is still outstanding, so if he can get to being a .240/.330/.390 hitter, he still probably gives you some No, it’s not what the contract pays him, but he’d at least be a valuable piece of the team. But yeah, it’s mostly just the closing your eyes and hoping, which is a miserable position to be in.
• I don’t know how much longer Salvador Perez is going to be out, and I don’t think the Royals really know either, even if they are trying to speculate a return date. They at least need to be looking around the league for an upgrade from Drew Butera/Cam Gallagher in case this either lasts longer, or recurs and he has to sit down again after he returns. The timing of this all is such a mess because if he went on the disabled list a week earlier, they could have easily acquired Jonathan Lucroy from the Rangers, who went for a PTBNL from the Rockies (and admittedly hasn’t been much to write home about anyway). But it was after the trade deadline, so now it’s time to hit the waiver wire. It’s hard to speculate who has cleared, who got claimed and pulled back and all that, but I would say guys to look at would be Kurt Suzuki, Nick Hundley, AJ Ellis or maybe Cameron Rupp. You’re not going to find any great names on this list, but all have their positive attributes that I think can exceed those of what the Royals currently have on their roster. It’s not the easiest thing for a deal to come together after August starts, but it’s also more than possible.
• When the Royals made their trade with the Padres, I really liked it because I thought Trevor Cahill would be a solid starter in the middle of the rotation while Ryan Buchter would provide a really good left-handed arm to pair with Scott Alexander and Mike Minor. I also liked acquiring the potential of Brandon Maurer and wondered if there might be a mechanical adjustment that could be made to help him actually pitch as well as it looks like he should. So far, my thoughts on the trade aren’t holding up very well. Cahill hasn’t looked comfortable yet and is sporting an 8.18 ERA in three starts, spanning just 11 innings. He’s also walked three more than he’s struck out. Basically he’s been early season Travis Wood, which the Royals already had. And now he’s hurt and on the disabled list, so that’s just great. Buchter has looked okay enough at times, so I’m willing to chalk his issues up to small sample, but Maurer looks absolutely out of control. His fastball appears to be straight as an arrow and he is making every right-handed hitter look like a better version of Mike Trout. It’s bad. I have no suggestion. Maybe he could try throwing his changeup to right-handed batters? They’re hitting .857 with a 1.714 SLG on his fastball as a Royal, and no, that’s not a typo, though the sample is small. He hasn’t gotten a single swing and miss on a fastball from a righty out of 40 thrown with the Royals and only has 13 out of 221 this whole season. Lefties are struggling to make good contact on his fastball, and maybe it’s because the changeup gives them enough reason to worry. I honestly don’t know, but anything is worth a try at this point. I guess the good thing is that we won’t hear many cries for Maurer to take over the eighth inning from Joakim Soria.
• Obviously the recent struggles have made things much more difficult for the Royals. Not only have they lost a ton of games lately, but that’s allowed other teams to get into what looked like it might only be a two or three team race for that final playoff spot. But like I said at the top, there is still good news to be had. With 48 games still remaining, including more than 20 percent of them against the Indians, the Royals have a chance to make up ground. One thing about this team is that we know they are capable of going on a run. A few weeks ago, they were down in the bottom of the ninth after blowing a lead and on their way to their eighth loss in nine games when they made a crazy comeback to win that game and then the next eight after that. Of course, then they started this stretch. Basically, they’re going to need to find a way to pull their collective heads out of their you-know-whats and get going. They head to Chicago and Oakland to face two teams that have thrown in the towel on this season. If they don’t go at least 3-3, I’ll personally throw in the towel on the Royals. Even if they go 3-3, I’m going to be skeptical, but at least they’ll be treading water before starting a tough stretch.

• With Ian Kennedy continuing to pitch well this year, a lot of questions have been asked about his opt-out following the 2017 season. For those who don’t remember, Kennedy’s deal pays him $7.5 million this year, $13.5 million next year and if he doesn’t opt out, he gets $16 million in 2018 and $16.5 million in 2019 and 2020. But if he does choose to opt out of his deal, he gets a bonus of $6 million from the Royals. So following the 2017 season, if he chooses to opt out, the Royals will have paid him $27 million over two seasons. That means that in order for the opt out to make sense, he has to believe he can receive a contract for at least $43 million over three seasons or more. He’s currently thrown 183 innings with a 3.64 ERA. He’s made 30 or more starts for each of the last seven seasons. He’s a guy you can count on to take the ball every fifth day. This is his first season with an above average ERA since 2012, but there’s a lot of value in going out there every start. If he can perform as well in 2017 as he has in 2016, he’d likely end up with about 65 starts and 380-400 innings of a 3.65-3.75 ERA. The 2017/2018 free agent market is much better than this year’s, but there’s a market for that out there. In a market where guys like Phil Hughes are making $14 million per year, I think there’s a very good chance Kennedy could look and say he could get something like three years and $48 million from some team and opt out. I still keep thinking back to his comments in spring training about moving his family and wonder if he’d rather have some stability, but I think the odds are much better today that he opts out after next year than they were six months ago.
• Looking ahead to the offseason, I believe the Royals will need to add at least two starting pitchers who they think can help their staff at some point during the 2017 season. In my opinion, one needs to be a guy you can slot in right away. Maybe that’s just figuring out a deal with Edinson Volquez and hoping that an October-less season will get him ready to perform well again. Some guys I’d target for the sometime in 2017 role are Jhoulys Chacin, Scott Feldman and maybe even Brett Anderson. Of course, I wouldn’t break the bank for any of them, so they might find deals that are better for them, but these are guys I’d have interest in as the swing man role that Chris Young attempted to fill this season. Add them to a rotation of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura and what seems like Jason Vargas and then to a stable of guys like Alec Mills, Jake Junis, Matt Strahm, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen (I’m assuming he’s back on a minor league deal) and maybe Dillon Gee and I think there might be enough to figure something out. Of course, I said that this season and look where that got us all. And hey, I’m not going to even think about counting on Kyle Zimmer, but if the thoracic outlet surgery was his problem all along, that would be a nice little “look what I found” type of surprise for the Royals next season. If you’re wondering who I’d target for the guys who could slot immediately into the rotation, I don’t know that answer yet. There’s not much out there that will be in the Royals price range.
• One thing I think the Royals really need heading into next season is to find someone who can get on base at the top of the order. I know that’s your “duh” comment of the day, but if they could add a piece who could post a .350 OBP at the top of the lineup, that would allow everything else to fall into place. They really would be in the market at the same two positions they’re always in the market, right field and second base, although I could see them shifting Lorenzo Cain to right and looking at center field as well. In center, Dexter Fowler would be a nice fit offensively, but will likely be expensive, and that’s if he even wants to leave Chicago. I always come back to feeling like Martin Prado will be a Royal at some point in his career. He hasn’t played any second base this season and hasn’t played much there at all in a few years, but I just wonder if that could make some sense for next year’s club. If nothing else, I’d consider moving Cain to the leadoff spot, but I fear if that happens we’d see Alcides Escobar hitting second, which nobody needs to see.
• I was talking about this with Cody Tapp on his show on 1510 AM, but he brought up how often Drew Butera has been behind the plate with Ventura on the mound. I know it’s been discussed and I knew it had happened more than a couple times, but it’s to the point that I think it’s more than a coincidence. Butera has started 29 games behind the plate this season, and 10 of them have been with Ventura on the mound. He started six games when Perez missed time with that calf injury and just one of those was a Ventura start, so in nine of his 23 other starts, he’s caught Ventura. Four of the nine starts were day games after a night game, but the most recent one was a day game after a day game when Perez had caught a day game after a night game. That’s what got both of us thinking. Now, I’m not a big believer in catcher ERA because I think there are just way too many variables to make it make sense, but in the interest of presenting the facts, Ventura has a 3.94 ERA in 64 innings throwing to Butera and a 4.58 ERA in 112 innings of throwing to Perez. He had a 3.98 ERA throwing to Perez last year, so that part is likely noise, but I think the Royals definitely see something between Ventura and Butera, so I’m now wondering if the Royals get Butera locked up as he’s a free agent following the season. I don’t really have a conclusion here, but it’s something interesting to think about.

First, jump out to a quick lead. Yes, it was a home run which isn’t very Royal, but that’s neither here nor there. The important part of my narrative I’m desperately attempting to manufacture is that the Royals scored a couple of quick runs. Then, they shelved the bats until the late innings. Twice, they had a runner on third with less than two outs. In sum, they had five opportunities to scratch across a run in the fifth and sixth. Three strikeouts, a foul out to the first baseman and a ground out netted bupkis.

They put another runner on third in the ninth. In fact, they loaded the bases with nobody out. This, was the late Royals rally. The Run Expectancy Matrix says the average team is scoring 2.3 runs when they have that situation in an inning. Drew Butera believes in the Run Expectancy. He delivered an opposite field single past a drawn-in infield to break the deadlock. Paulo Orlando made the Matrix look prescient by bringing in two more for insurance. Eric Hosmer added to the scoring with a one-run single, before Kendrys Morales added the final exclamation point with a three-run jack into the Royals bullpen. Seven runs in the inning. The Royals laugh at your Matrix.

It can be frustrating watching this team in the middle innings, but when it’s the Twins, you just need a little bit of patience.

Gee Takes The Fifth

Meanwhile, Dillon Gee surrendered the lead as quickly as he possibly could, and started the process in the most predicable way. He chose to pitch to Brian Dozier. Honestly, is there any reason any Royals pitcher should ever pitch to Dozier? And I’m not talking about just for the rest of this series or the rest of this season. Don’t throw him a hittable pitch ever again. Ever.

Two home runs later, the Twins held the lead. If you were keeping score at home, that was three bombs allowed to the first eight hitters Gee faced. However, once he drove beyond the speed bumps, he put the pedal to the floor and drove through the Twins lineup for the rest of the night. He retired 15 of his last 17 batters faced. An ugly start followed by a somewhat inspired finish. As Hunter Samuels wrote at this web address last week, Gee has delivered a perfectly acceptable performance for the Royals as their fifth starter.

Bullpen Breakthrough

The Royals finally hung another run on the scoreboard in the seventh. After Ervin Santana opened the inning hitting Salvador Perez with a pitch and following that with a walk to Alex Gordon, Paul Molitor came out with the hook. It’s always bullpen roulette, but with the Twins it’s akin to pushing all your chips on the black when the wheel only has red. Santana wore the look of a condemned man as he strolled to the clubhouse; we can only surmise he could see into the future.

It took two batters for the Royals to knot the game at three. Alcides Escobar with the honors on a single to left. Escobar has been miserable at the dish this season for the Royals, carrying a .237 TAv in 593 plate appearances. The abundance of plate appearances was an ill conceived attempt to recapture some of that “Esky Magic” the first few months of the season. Since then, he’s dropped in the order and the key situation always seems to find him. On Tuesday, he delivered. Baseball is a strange game. The single pushed the Royals Win Expectancy 18 percent to the positive.

After Santana delivered six-plus strong innings, Molitor motioned to his bullpen five times. It was a wonder he didn’t tear a rotator cuff. He probably got indigestion watching his relievers attempt to pitch, though. The final numbers on the Twins bullpen: 3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO.

Injury Report

As noted, the mini-rally in the seventh was started the Perez was hit on the wrist by a pitch. He turned and walked toward the dugout almost immediately, which was worrying enough. Perez doesn’t come out of the game under any circumstances. He stopped short of the dugout where he was met by the trainer, but he did indeed exit the contest. An update from the Royals said Perez suffered a bone contusion. You would have to think he will miss a couple of games. Yet you wouldn’t be surprised to see him back behind the plate tomorrow.

Ahead of Tuesday’s game, Lorenzo Cain said he hoped his wrist would improve over the week and is targeting a Friday return in Chicago. Cain last played a week ago Monday in the opening game of the last Royals homestand. It’s not a coincidence the Royals have gone 3-4 in his absence.

Up Next

The Royals wrap the series and go for the much-needed sweep at 7:10 on Wednesday. Danny Duffy against Kyle Gibson. Take a moment to read our series preview for the third game of this match-up.

The Royals were getting the magic back and then – boom – went on a tear.

Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain started hitting like we think they can. The Royals made three improbably comebacks against Chicago, then ran over Tampa Bay. Now they’re in first place.

But the performances of the guys called up to fill in for injured players have been the biggest boost. Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez out? No problem. Whit Merrifield, Brett Eibner, and Drew Butera – Drew Butera! – are here to help.

We also covered All Star Game voting and the absurdity of some of the columns reacting to early voting results.

REMINDER:
Mike will be joining Darin Watson from Baseball Prospectus Kansas City at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for an event featuring Jonah Keri and NLBM Hall of Game inductees Tim Raines and Andre Dawson. Tickets are available on HomestandSports.com for $25 *OR* $20 with the case-sensitive promo code “bpro”. Admission includes a year membership with the NLBM. (http://www.homestandsports.com/showslist/2016/6/10/pitch-talks-kansas-city)

Follow the Vault at @KCBaseballVault. Follow host Jeff Herr at @TheJeffReport, co-host Michael Engel at @michaelengel. You can also email feedback to KansasCityBaseballVault@gmail.com.

Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes and BlogTalkRadio. You can also download this episode here (mp3).

When spring training opened, there were battles for the fourth and fifth starters, second base, the last two spots in the bullpen, backup catcher and probably the 25th man on the roster. Jarrod Dyson’s injury added one more open roster spot for the time being, too. With just two weeks left before the season, there’s still plenty of time for things to change, but as of now, I think we’re starting to see what the roster may look like.

Let’s dive into the battles.

4th and 5th Starters
This battle seems to be as good as over, but I’m not really sure how big of a battle it really was to start. I kind of expect these two spots to be somewhat fluid throughout the year, but to start the season it looks like Chris Young will be the fourth starter and Kris Medlen will fill the fifth spot in the rotation. I thought it would be the other way around, but it doesn’t really make a huge difference who pitches in what spot.

What Could Change?
I don’t think there’s much of a chance anything changes here without an injury, but Dillon Gee and Chien-Ming Wang are still very much a part of the conversation. Both had chances to start over the weekend because of Edinson Volquez’s tired arm and Yordano Ventura being sick, and both had their moments. Gee was able to go five innings and was generally effective. Wang threw just three innings and was done in by a throwing error and a home run over the comically close wall in right field. I don’t think either has a real shot to break the rotation, but they seem to be the next in line for now.

Second Base
I’ve said this before, but when this competition opened, I didn’t think it was much of a competition. I figured Christian Colon would have to be out of this world while Omar Infante would have to be just regular season bad. Neither has happened. As it stands right now, Infante looks like he’ll be getting the nod to start. He is the better defender, and Colon hasn’t done enough this spring to wrestle the job away. So the Omar Infante Experience looks like it will continue to start, but I expect he’ll be on a short leash.

What Could Change?
Infante could go ice cold, and Colon seems to be emerging with the bat. The Royals might want to play the “hot hand” to start the year given their clear lack of trust in Infante. I don’t think that’ll happen, but you never know. As the season progresses, keep an eye on the young’n, Raul Mondesi. It’s not just the spring numbers (which are very good), but that he looks more comfortable at the plate. He’s got a lot to work on, but hey, it could happen.

Last Two Bullpen Spots
At the start of spring, I fully expected Dillon Gee to make the roster as the long reliever. The Royals clearly liked him enough to give him a very early opt out in the spring. They’ve since added him to the 40-man roster, so he’s essentially made the team. The other spot seemed to be Brian Flynn‘s to lose. He was so good last spring and Ned Yost talked about him being one of the toughest cuts he’s ever had to make and all that. Here’s the problem. He’s been really bad this spring. I haven’t seen a ton of him, but he doesn’t seem to have what he had last spring, and that’s disappointing.

All things equal, I think the Royals would like a second lefty, so that gives Scott Alexander and Brian Duensing a leg up. Both have been really good, but Alexander’s been better. Still, given the Royals affinity for inventory, I think Alexander probably gets squeezed out and Duensing is the guy. Ross Ohlendorf (yesterday was the date he could opt-out of his deal; at the time of writing, he had not yet done that) and Wang are still in the running, but I really do think it’s between the lefties even though Yost doesn’t play matchups all that often.

Update: Ohlendorf has chosen to opt out of his contract. As Rachel Phelps would say in Major League, cross him off.

What Could Change?
Who are we kidding? It’s a bullpen competition in spring training where small sample sizes reign supreme. I don’t think anyone provides what Brian Flynn could provide to the bullpen. If he has a good last two weeks, he could reclaim the top spot in this battle and make the big league roster. That would give the Royals multiple guys who can go multiple innings in Gee, Flynn and Danny Duffy and really round out a powerful bullpen.

Backup Catcher
When the Royals traded for Tony Cruz from the Cardinals for the other Jose Martinez (other as in not the guy who hit .384 in Omaha last year), it seemed a curious move. They already had a backup catcher who couldn’t hit in Drew Butera. But they had already let Francisco Pena go and needed another catcher who would be able to step in. Butera’s been very good defensively this spring and decent enough offensively. Cruz hasn’t been great in either aspect, so with his options, I expect him to go to Triple-A to start the year.

What Could Change?
Catching depth around baseball is ridiculously thin, so maybe the Royals trade one of their backups. Of course, they’re not getting much for either Butera or Cruz. Keep an eye on Parker Morin as a backup option to emerge throughout the season, though. He’s definitely not ever a starter, but he hits lefty and actually hit for the first time in 2015 in Double-A. The easy comp Royals fans will know is Brent Mayne, but if he can actually hit reasonably well, that’s a solid backup.

Paulo Orlando Complement
When Dyson went down, the right field competition seemed to be open enough, but Paulo Orlando would have had to lose the spot. Honestly, Orlando hasn’t been so great after a hot start, but I think he’s the guy to start the year, which leaves really two guys fighting for lefty hitting right fielders. Travis Snider and Reymond Fuentes are the two, and there’s not much of a competition right now. Snider has been nothing short of bad this spring, while Fuentes has lit up the Cactus League. Don’t be surprised if Fuentes even gets the nod on Opening Day since the Mets are starting Matt Harvey.

What Could Change?
Without an injury, not much. Plus, Dyson looks to be on track to return in the second week of the season. I guess Snider could go on an absolute tear and Fuentes could struggle, but based on what I’ve seen of Snider, I don’t see it.

25th Man
This is the spot that I think really opened up with Dyson’s injury, and the frontrunner appears to be Whit Merrifield. He put on muscle in the offseason, has hit very well in the spring and has some defensive versatility. I mentioned in Friday Notes that he isn’t on the 40-man roster, which brings up some logistical concerns, but the Royals seem to really like him. Some believe he could be competing for the utility role with Colon, but he’s very inexperienced on the left side of the infield, which showed on Saturday in San Antonio when he made a throwing error. I’m not sure how comfortable the Royals would be with him at shortstop even for a few innings, so he’s probably relegated to jack of all trades. Personally, I’m not sold, but they don’t let me make decisions.

What Could Change?
I would like to see the Royals have a power bat in this last spot. With four outfielders already and a versatile Colon to help in the infield, that seems to make a lot of sense to me. Snider is really the only guy in camp who fits that mold and could reasonably make the roster, so if he goes nuts, maybe he takes that spot and then keeps it when Dyson comes back and Fuentes could get sent to AAA. But likely not much will change.

So if you’re keeping score at home, here’s what I think the Opening Day roster looks like:

Catchers
Salvador Perez
Drew Butera

Infielders
Eric Hosmer
Omar Infante
Mike Moustakas
Alcides Escobar
Christian Colon
Whit Merrifield

Outfielders
Alex Gordon
Lorenzo Cain
Paulo Orlando
Reymond Fuentes

Designated Hitter
Kendrys Morales

Starting Pitchers
Edinson Volquez
Yordano Ventura
Ian Kennedy
Chris Young
Kris Medlen

Bullpen
Wade Davis
Kelvin Herrera
Joakim Soria
Luke Hochevar
Danny Duffy
Brian Duensing
Dillon Gee

With less than two weeks until the season begins, it’ll be fun to see how this plays out to see who’s on that first base line to get introduced while wearing those gold trimmed jerseys and hats.