But anyway, I’m not really here to talk about the guys who did get offers, but rather those who didn’t and what may come of them. Let’s take a look at each free agent in alphabetical order. All potential teams are not including the Royals.

Melky Cabrera

Cabrera couldn’t be offered a QO because he was traded midseason and a player must spend the entire year with one team to get the offer. He wouldn’t have anyway, but it’s good to know the skinny. Cabrera came to the Royals at the deadline and looked good at the plate for awhile, but ultimately hit just .269/.303/.399 with the Royals and provided some truly awful defense. He was decent with the White Sox, but I’m not sure what his market is and I definitely don’t think the Royals are interested. They have Jorge Bonifacio and Alex Gordon in the corners as well as Jorge Soler, and given that it didn’t work out for two months in 2017, I think they’ll probably look to stay with what they have in the corners. I don’t really know where he fits, but at worst, maybe he can pick off a team that missed out on what they really wanted and find a deal late in the offseason.

Possibilities: Miami, Toronto

Trevor Cahill

Like Cabrera, Cahill couldn’t receive a QO and wouldn’t have anyway. He was bad for the Royals, but he’s a guy who I would have some interest in as one of the rotating members of the rotation in 2018. I’m not sure the organization would be too keen on bringing him back because of what he did in Kansas City after the deadline, but a guy who can get ground balls and can be effective in relatively limited work can Have some value. I don’t think the Royals are the team to sign him, but he’ll get a one-year deal somewhere, maybe even back in San Diego.

Possibilities: Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay

Alcides Escobar

Escobar could have gotten a qualifying offer, but given the fact that he’s been one of the worst offensive players in baseball for the last three seasons, I just don’t see it. I think there is value in Escobar because having a guy you know will go out there and play a solid shortstop every single day is a luxury not a lot of teams have. Look at the best free agent shortstop, Zack Cozart (apologies to Dusty Coleman). He’s played 243 games the last two seasons. Escobar does that in winter ball alone. Still, even with that value, he doesn’t provide a ton else, so committing payroll and, maybe more importantly, a roster spot to him is a poor decision. Some team will give him a deal. I fear that team will be the Royals. I hope I am wrong.

Possibilities: Oakland? San Diego?

Mike Minor

There was some discussion about whether or not Minor should have been given a qualifying offer. The argument is that he’s likely going to make more on the open market than the $17.4 million, so he’d likely turn it down. And even if he didn’t, a good reliever on a one-year deal is a nice trade chip. That argument as a whole makes me laugh. Minor was fantastic for the Royals in 2017. His 2.86 DRA was in line with some of the better relievers in baseball and even better than many of them. Even so, a qualifying offer never made sense. He’d be silly to turn it down. Even if he gets the four years and $28 million projected by MLB Trade Rumors, by accepting the deal, he’d basically be banking on himself to make an additional $10.6 million over the next three seasons following 2018.

If you believe in yourself, you’re taking that bet and taking the big guaranteed deal. And as a trade chip in this scenario, Minor would be a great haul if you’re in the race, but Minor at about $300,000 per appearance isn’t going to bring back as much as maybe you’d think. The Royals would likely have to chip in some salary to get any value in return, which, I suppose is fine, but not ideal. No, it doesn’t make much sense.

So here we are, and he rightfully wasn’t extended a qualifying offer. So what’s next? I think the Royals should re-sign him. Something in the neighborhood of 3/24 or so would make a lot of sense. If he’s bad, well, that stinks, but the team probably won’t be very good anyway, so it was a decent risk. If he’s great again, well now we can talk about him as a legitimate trade chip. A season and a half of excellent relief work and a relatively reasonable salary could make Minor a huge pickup at the deadline for some team. If he’s great and the Royals are somehow in contention, then that’s not a bad scenario either.  But if the Royals don’t bring him back, there are about 29 other teams who could use a lefty with his stuff.

Possibilities: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (Cubs), Colorado, Houston, Los Angeles (Angels), Los Angeles (Dodgers), Milwaukee, San Francisco,  Seattle, Texas, Washington

Peter Moylan

Moylan is a workhorse, appearing in 79 games for the Royals last season, and he was the kind of guy every bullpen needs. He’s not really a multi-inning guy, but he limits hits, gets a ton of ground balls and isn’t afraid of any situation. He’d do well to find himself a contender to latch on with, but if he wants to stay with the Royals, I imagine everyone would be happy to welcome him back. He’s never going to cost much, so why not? If not the Royals, he’s in a similar position as Minor. Just about every team would likely make him an offer of some sort.

Possibilities: Literally every team

Jason Vargas

Vargas was the other guy who a QO was a possibility for, but I don’t think they ever thought too much about that given his collapse after the break. My guess is that even after a season with 18 wins, he ends up netting a contract similar to what Edinson Volquez got from the Marlins. The Royals may be the team to give it to him, and that’s fine, if they feel confident he can give them 300 innings or so over the course of the deal. In the right situation, I think Vargas could thrive again. Give him a manager not afraid to go to his bullpen in a ballpark that is a little more forgiving and he could put together a nice season of 25-30 starts averaging 5-6 innings with a 4.25 ERA. There’s a market for that. Put him someplace like Baltimore and he’s going to really miss Kauffman Stadium.

Possibilities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles (Angels), Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle

Free agency starts Tuesday with a five-day exclusive negotiating period that ends next week. On November 13^th, players have to make their QO decisions, which is also the day the GM meetings get underway in Orlando. Action is coming soon. Buckle up.

Entering August the Royals trailed Cleveland by two games. They had a firm grasp on the second AL Wild Card, checking in two and a half games ahead of Tampa. Then, it went to shit. The Royals went 25-33 the last two months of the season, the third worst record in the AL during that time. They were outscored by 88 runs, which was the second highest deficit in the league. They were outclassed in every facet of the game.

They finished in third in the Central and missed the Wild Card by five games. What went wrong?

It’s not an easy question to answer. We at least need to try. Today, we begin our 2017 postmortem. This will be a series of posts detailing those final two months and how the Royals ultimately fell short in their quest for one last shot at glory with their championship core.

We begin with the trade for Melky Cabrera.

On July 30, Jorge Bonifacio was the Royals starting right fielder compiling a solid, if unspectacular, rookie campaign. He was hitting .258/.327/.446 which was worth a .260 TAv. His defense was suspect, as expected, but generally passable (let’s call him below average in the outfield) which put him at a -0.3 WARP.

As the Royals examined their roster in search of areas to upgrade, Bonifacio’s position made sense to target. A day prior to the deadline, the Royals pulled the trigger on the deal, sending AJ Puckett and Andre Davis to Chicago to bring Cabrera back to Kansas City.

At the time of the trade, Cabrera was hitting .295/.336/.436 with a .263 TAv and was worth 0.3 WARP. It wasn’t a surefire upgrade over the production they were receiving from Bonifacio, but the Royals were banking on the veteran Cabrera to rise to the challenge of the pennant race. Besides, adding another outfielder to the mix, gave Ned Yost some flexibility in his lineup construction. With Alex Gordon in a season long slump and Brandon Moss struggling against right-handed pitching, the Royals could use another option in the lineup.

It didn’t work as well as the Royals hoped.

Once Cabrera joined the Royals, he expanded his strike zone. The following charts are from Brooks Baseball and represent Cabrera’s swing rate with the White Sox on the left and the Royals on the right.

He stopped hacking at pitches up and out of the zone, but chased at pitches off the corners and down. The net difference was a 31 percent chase rate when he was with the White Sox compared to a 35 percent chase rate with the Royals.

This is the curse of the small sample size when you make a trade for a player in the stretch run. You may think you know what you’re going to get, but variations will arise. Some positive, others negative. For Cabrera, he owns a 32 percent chase rate for his career. He was a bit below his average the first four months of the season, but felt the siren of regression in the final two. He finished with a 32.1 percent chase rate overall, which was his best mark since 2009. Except the Royals didn’t reap the benefit of that. At all.

Coupled with the increased chase rate, Cabrera was making more contact than his norm on pitches outside off the zone with the Royals. Again, regression was at play here. Cabrera made contact on 77 percent of the pitches he swung at outside of the zone with the Sox. With the Royals, that number jumped to 83 percent. Combine the two and he finished the season with a 79 percent contact rate on pitches offered at outside the strike zone, which is right in line with his career average.

If we’ve learned anything from this sabermetric revolution, it’s that not all contact is created equal. By expanding the zone and putting the bat on the ball, you’re hitting on the pitcher’s terms. Cabrera’s increased chase rate coupled with the rise in contact outside the zone resulted in a precipitous drop in hard contact rate. At 32 percent with the White Sox, it tumbled to 24 percent with the Royals. So it follows his slugging percentage, on base percentage, ISO and BABIP all suffered steep declines once he switched uniforms.

The final numbers are difficult to digest. Cabrera hit .269/.303/.399 for the Royals with a .238 TAv, some 30 points lower than his TAv when he arrived from Chicago.

He struggled defensively as well. Not that he was expected to provide even average glove work in a corner outfield position, but he was especially poor. Cabrera was worth -5.9 FRAA for the White Sox in four months of work. In his two months with the Royals, Cabrera was worth a stunningly bad -6.8 FRAA. Add it together and Cabrera was worth -0.7 WARP for the Royals. Sought as an improvement over Bonifacio, Cabrera was worse.

All deadline deals represent a gamble of some sort. Cabrera was never going to provide a massive upgrade (a la Ben Zobrist over Omar Infante in 2015), but it wasn’t unreasonable to expect a tiny improvement over the expected production from Bonifacio those last two months. The Royals essentially received the worst case scenario for their end of the deal.

Fortunately, the Jason Vargas of April and May returned to stifle the Toronto bats in a 1-0 win to keep Kansas City’s Wild Card hopes, however faintly, alive.

A quick compendium of Toronto’s hits on Thursday night:

• Kendrys Morales singled to lead off the second.
• Darwin Barney singled to lead off the fifth.

End of list.

No Blue Jays baserunner reached second base. The Doctor was surgical, and he made this thing I wrote two weeks ago look pretty stupid (I look pretty stupid anyway; “lightly shaved Wookie” is a phrase I’ve heard ascribed to me). Even better than the precision with which he pitched, Vargas found the strikeout pitch again for the first time in what seemed like eons, sitting down seven Blue Jays on strikes (his most since Aug. 19) and securing just his second quality start since Aug. 1.

I’m not going to call it an anomaly, but Vargas hasn’t put together back-to-back quality starts since the end of June. Maybe what I wrote two weeks ago got shoved in my face tonight, but it’s largely possible that it still stands up the next time he takes the ball.

And lest we give Vargas all the credit for his league-leading 17^th win (“Welcome to the MLB in 2017, where everything’s made up and the wins don’t matter!”), the final 2.2 innings were carried by Peter Moylan, Ryan Buchter, Joakim Soria and Mike Minor. That quartet struck out three and didn’t allow a hit—or a walk. They looked like a real pitching staff (first time holding an opponent scoreless since June 2), and on a night that the offense failed to muster anything in the way of sustenance.

Oh, the offense. Everything that happened of importance happened in the third inning—Alex Gordon drew a one-out walk, Lorenzo Cain extended the inning with a two-out single and Melky Cabrera scored Gordon on a line drive single to center.

That was the offense, in its entirety. For all the Jays offensive foibles, the Royals put runners in scoring position just three other times—two of which, in the fourth and sixth innings, were snuffed out by double plays.

Cain had two hits. Melky had three. Salvador Perez collected two more, for some reason. All nine hits in this game were singles. Every paying customer in attendance should probably get either a refund or a free beer at the next game.

I wish I had more to report, but this game was trash if you like runs, hits or anything except routine ground balls to third base. At least the Royals only have to basically win out in order to snag the second Wild Card.

Operation Win Out has commenced in Toronto. Melky Cabrera singles with two outs in the third. 1-0, Royals

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) September 21, 2017

Thanks Rustin.

The Royals kick off their final visit to Chicago Friday night against Reynaldo Lopez and the White Sox at 7:10 p.m. (CT). Jason Hammel dances on the razor’s edge for Kansas City.

They tried to give it away, but the Kansas City Royals five-game losing streak was snapped thanks to timely home runs and a bullpen that was able to avoid becoming a complete sieve against the Quad-A White Sox.

The win got the Royals back to .500 and within a half-game of the second Wild Card spot—a spot they seem unlikely to ever be truly out of, given the logjam of teams within a couple of games within .500. The Royals, along with Minnesota, Los Angeles, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Texas, are within 2.5 games of the second Wild Card spot as of this writing.

Of course, only one of those teams went 3-7 over their last 10 games to tumble from grace. Give you a guess who.

The Royals bookended their scoring with home runs, starting with Eric Hosmer’s first-inning bomb which flew approximately forever.

Eric Hosmer gives the #Royals an early lead with his 19th homer of the season!
Tune in now on FSKC or FSGO: https://t.co/PyHkryC2Tf pic.twitter.com/pdedqD5Ug4

— FOX Sports KC (@FSKansasCity) August 12, 2017

Opposite field to boot—the direction 11 of his 19 homers this season.

An inning later, Alcides Escobar delivered a run-scoring triple and scored following a Whit Merrifield single, because of course Whit had a hand in victory. Very, very quietly, Escobar is up to .229 on the season. Maybe that’s nothing special (it is nothing special, I just wanted to leave room for ambiguity), but when you consider he was hitting .180 two months ago, Ned Yost will take it.

Three runs is never going to be enough for Ian Kennedy, and it wasn’t on this night either. He gave it all back on a pair of Jose Abreu home runs, in the fourth and sixth innings. He also was responsible for Tim Anderson, who walked with one out in the seventh, advanced to third when Omar Narvaez greeted Scott Alexander with a double then scored on Leury Garcia’s two-run single.

By the way, Alexander has now given up a run in six straight appearances, blew his season’s first save in a seventh and has been generally not as good as his 2.63 ERA would have you, John Q. Fan, believe.

But Alexander would snake his season’s third win thanks to some shut-down relief work from Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera and a big hit from new acquisition Melky Cabrera. Say what you want about Melky—he’s one of my least-favorite baseball players ever, so you know where I stand—but the man has held up his end of the bargain with the Royals.

Tonight, he swatted a two-run homer in the eighth to put the Royals ahead for good.

In 13 contests since his triumphant return to the organization, he’s hitting .314 with three homers and 13 RBI. Maybe Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer have all sucked to varying degrees—and they have—but you can’t doubt that Melky’s in on this.

Did Mike Moustakas homer? Well, no, but he did end the game and lock down Herrera’s 25^th save with this nice diving stop with a runner on second after Narvaez walked and pinch-runner Tyler Saladino stole second. If that grounder gets through, we may still be playing baseball tonight.

Holy geez, Mike Moustakas! #Royals win 5-4 on this game-saving play pic.twitter.com/eCBMotR1ZI

— Jonathan Deutsch (@wibwJonathan) August 13, 2017

As it is, the Royals finally pulled out of a tailspin and get the chance to take a much-needed series win with Jason Vargas on the mound, Sunday. Derek Holland, who is bad, will oppose the Doctor in the series finale.

With the eight (or nine) man bullpen being the norm, it can still be difficult to navigate the staff around 18 guaranteed innings in one day. Factor in stretches where days off are far in the horizon, and it’s damned essential for teams to get depth from at least one starter when playing two.

On Sunday, the way it would have been drawn up on the white board it figured to be Danny Duffy giving the Royals length in the first game while hoping for a decent enough outing from Jake Junis in the nightcap.

About those best laid plans…

Duffy was roughed up in game one. After seven runs in the first two innings, he thankfully was able to apply a tourniquet to gut it out through a little over three more frames.  That put the bullpen in play a little earlier than expected. Or hoped. Peter Moylan, Scott Alexander and Brandon Maurer held the Mariners at bay. A Nelson Cruz home run in the seventh was the only blemish on the bullpen in game one.

On the flip side, you have the Mariners, staked to a seven run lead and a starter who couldn’t get out of the fifth. They used seven pitchers in relief, with a seventh inning carousel that saw three relievers to record three outs. Modern baseball, man.

The Royals battled gamely, but the Cruz home run was the difference in defeat. They had their chances, and the Mariners, certainly in the late innings, had the look of a team disinterested in actually winning, but the 27th out was recorded before the eighth run.

With a deep bullpen and adequate cover for Duffy in the first game, it wouldn’t be accurate to say the pressure was on Junis in game two. At least not any more than any other major league start. With no days off in the schedule between now and August 17, Junis, who was recalled as the 26th man on the doubleheader roster, was pressed into starting duty. He had had a bit of a bumpy ride as a starter in the bigs so far, with a 6.00 ERA and 40 hits in 33 innings. Nine of those hits left the yard which is an unhealthy 2.5 HR/9. The majority of those starts came in June, where the Royals were still pulling themselves back into a pennant race. The stakes were higher on Sunday.

Junis shoved.

It was a brilliant outing where he required just 94 pitches to get through eight innings. Junis allowed just four hits (no home runs!), and struck out seven. By holding the Mariners in check, he was able to secure the four game series split with Seattle. That meant in a day where Cleveland lost and Tampa won, the Royals were largely able to maintain the status quo in the races. It also meant that Seattle would leave Kansas City exactly the same number of games back in the Wild Card standings (1.5) as when they arrived.

The Wild Card race seems to be getting interesting again. Just a week after the trade deadline where it looked like the Orioles and the Angels were sinking, they have found a little momentum and have tightened the standings. Stating the obvious here, wins are critical at this juncture. If anything, it matters being the team the others are chasing. Let them trip over each other and themselves trying to make up ground. Claim the high road and try to keep your balance.

Still, at this moment, Tampa and Seattle look worthy challengers. At Baseball Prospectus, the Royals playoff odds have cooled, down to 32 percent, a loss of 10 percentage points from a week ago. The Mariners have made modest gains and are at 23 percent while the team to beat looks to be the Rays, who, despite going 5-5 over the last 10 games, have surged in the playoff odds report and are now the favorites for the second Wild Card at 40 percent. While the aforementioned Orioles and Angels are hot at the moment, PECOTA isn’t buying their chances. Both are below 10 percent.

The odds of course, are the odds. They are based on computer simulation and, like team record projections published in March, don’t mean anything. It’s simply one benchmark in a season that looks a long way from being sorted.

A key man in deciding how the next two months play out will be Salvador Perez. The Royals hemmed and hawed on Saturday, declining to place their catcher on the disabled list, but it had the feeling of the inevitable. Out with a strained intercostal muscle, Perez is down for a minimum of 10 days and worst-case scenario has him out until early September.

Perez is enjoying his finest season since 2013. You know. From before the Royals were good. His .510 slugging percentage is a career high and his on base percentage has rebounded and is finally above .300 at .308. That gives him an above league average TAv at .274 and a 1.5 WARP. His loss hurts. There’s no getting around it. Take a productive bat out of the middle of any contender’s lineup and they’re going to miss it. When it’s a catcher… Sigh.

For now, the Royals will rely on a tandem of Drew Butera and Cameron Gallagher. Both are acceptable backup options under normal conditions. Starting on the regular? Let’s just say neither can replace the production of Perez.

The bottom third of the order again resembles the black hole we saw in April. Which causes a rethink on my part as to how to allocate playing time amongst the outfield and designated hitter quartet of options. Offense is now more of a priority with Perez out, which means it would behoove the Royals to figure out a way to get Jorge Bonifacio and Melky Cabrera most of the at bats.  Let Brandon Moss and Alex Gordon fight over the remainder of the available at bats. The longer Perez remains sidelined, the more critical it is that Ned Yost gets his lineup correct.

The pennant races can’t be won in August. But it sure feels like it can be lost.

• I loved the trade to bring Melky Cabrera back to the Royals. I thought it was an inspired move to pick someone up who could help to fill in at either designated hitter or outfield to give guys a day off and to maybe get some of the weak bats out of the lineup. Instead, Cabrera has played for Jorge Bonifacio. By doing that, the net gain on the trade was basically zero. Neither Cabrera or Bonifacio are especially good defensively, but both have been at least somewhat valuable hitters this season. The issue in the lineup wasn’t Bonifacio. The issue in the lineup was and is mostly Alex Gordon, but also Brandon Moss. Now, I completely understand that you don’t want to take Gordon’s defense out because it’s stellar. I also completely understand that Moss is able to carry a team when he gets hot. But if Cabrera continues to get his regular playing time in place of Bonifacio, the trade will have been mostly a waste. With 55 games to go, my ideal playing time scenario would be for Gordon to play 30 games, Moss 35-40 and Cabrera and Bonifacio get about 50 each. You’re still getting everyone playing time, but the guys who are hurting the offense the most just don’t get as much. I think it’s a scenario that makes sense. We’ll see if they employ it.
• With the Indians injury issues, I think 90 or 91 wins takes home the Central, which is a 35-20 finish for the Royals. They’ve done that once this season, but with their streaky nature, basically anything is possible. I think they only need 86 or 87 wins to take home one of the Wild Card spots though, which is just a 31-24 finish. That’s a 91-win pace for an entire season, which is less wins than they’ve been on pace for since May 1, so that’s something that seems very doable for them. With about half their games left against teams who are at least decent, it’s not going to be an easy road for them to make the postseason, but they have their road map in place. Win about 63 percent of your home games and 55 percent of your road games and that gets it done. It’s not easy, but making the playoffs is inherently not easy. That’s what happens when you dig such a deep hole so early in the season. It takes a long time to dig completely out.
• I expect the Royals to scour the waiver wire over the next couple weeks trying to continue to add to their team. I know they were working up to the deadline to try to add some additional starting pitching, so don’t be too surprised if that’s where they turn. Remember, if a player is put on waivers, a few things can happen. If the player is claimed, he can either be let go to the claiming team for nothing, while that team has to absorb the whole salary, or he can be traded to that team for a player either not on the 40-man roster or another player who has cleared waivers, or he can be pulled back and then cannot be traded for the rest of the season. If he clears waivers, he can be dealt to anyone…or no one. Anyway, I think they could continue to work on a Marco Estrada deal as I expect him to clear waivers. They could also look to Scott Feldman if he comes off the DL (please no), Ivan Nova or maybe even R.A. Dickey. My guess is they don’t really see a need for a position player, though a utility guy like Jed Lowrie or even Sean Rodriguez might be able to work during this time period. You’re not likely to get a star in August, but you can get a guy who can fit nicely on a roster to help round it out. I won’t be surprised if they do nothing, but I imagine they’ll keep on looking for help.
• This is a continual talking point in Kansas City, but the bullpen seems to have a lot of people awfully concerned. And I get it. Kelvin Herrera has been shaky at times. Joakim Soria has seven blown saves and recently gave up the winning run in the ninth inning against Baltimore. The rallying cry has been mostly that Soria shouldn’t pitch the eighth inning. And if there was someone demonstrably better, I’d be all about that, but my question is if not Soria, then who? You could go with Mike Minor, who gave up a run last night and has given up runs in three of his last four games and give of his last night. You could go with Brandon Maurer, who has electric stuff but got lit up the other night and has a 5.86 ERA. Or maybe it’s Scott Alexander who randomly suffers from a complete inability to find the strike zone. Peter Moylan has been great, but he’s better served as someone who isn’t pigeon holed into a role because he can be used when needed throughout the game. I didn’t mention Neftali Feliz, but the guy the Brewers DFAed earlier this year who has struck out just 10 batters in 15 innings doesn’t seem ideal either. The point here is not that the Royals bullpen is doomed. I think quite the opposite. It’s very deep and filled with quality pitchers. While Soria isn’t an ideal option, he’s one of many options with plenty of good points but also with flaws. Heading into play yesterday, the Royals had the eighth best bullpen ERA in baseball and the seventh best bullpen DRA. This is a good unit. It just doesn’t have the dominant forces it once did. The Royals have some issues, but the bullpen as a whole really isn’t one of them.

It’s a sort of homecoming for Cabrera, who hit .305/.339/.470 for the Royals in 2011. He was an important part of a strong offensive team that summer, and was part of the quartet that raked over 40 doubles.

Just for fun, here is the batting order from March 31, 2011, the day Cabrera made his Royals debut.

Aviles – 3B
Cabrera – CF
Gordon – LF
Butler – DH
Ka’aihue – 1B
Francoeur – RF
Escobar – SS
Treanor – C
Getz – 2B

A bit of a different cast in those days, no? Of course, 2011 was the season most of what we now know as the core made their debut. Eric Hosmer was up in May. Mike Moustakas arrived in June. Lorenzo Cain was a September call-up.

Less than a week after addressing their pitching needs, the Royals needed a bat to reinforce the lineup. The switch-hitting Cabrera is hitting .295/.336/.436 with a .266 TAv which is in the neighborhood of his career output. He turns 33 next month and has moved past the prime of his career, but it’s a graceful offensive decline. You knew based on his history with the Royals and the proclivities of manager Ned Yost, he would probably hit second in the order, behind Whit Merrifield. That was confirmed in Yost’s postgame comments about the trade.

As Yost also said in the aftermath of the Royals series victory in Boston, Cabrera will be spending the majority of his time in right field. That displaces rookie Jorge Bonifacio, who is having a fine offensive campaign, hitting .263/.332/.454 with a .269 TAv. That raised some eyebrows.

On the surface, it would seem Alex Gordon would be the natural choice for the bench. His .201/.294/.296 and .226 TAv has been a drag on the offense. However, this is the Royals. Defense matters, and they are a team that is love with their defense – and with good reason. Gordon, despite the struggles at the dish, still provides value with his glove. His 5.7 FRAA ranks fifth among all left fielders this season. That’s enough to push his WARP (barely) into positive territory at 0.3.

Outfield defense is important to the Royals because of the makeup of their rotation. Ian Kennedy (48 percent) and Jason Vargas (43 percent) are in the top ten among starting pitchers in fly ball rate. Jason Hammel (42 percent) ranks 13th. No other team has two pitchers in the top 13 in fly ball rate. The Royals have three. And with the acreage at The K, it’s important for the Royals to have a stout outfield defense.

Cabrera carries a -5.3 FRAA in left field this season. Bonifacio has likewise struggled and has posted a -5.1 FRAA in right. With such a fly ball heavy rotation, to put man each of the corner outfield positions with below average defenders is putting a ton of weight on the glove of Lorenzo Cain. Cain is a guy the Royals need to be giving some regular rest to keep him healthy down the stretch, not adding to his responsibilities in the outfield.

Bonifacio has been a revelation for these Royals, so it’s difficult to imagine he would be pushed to the bench on a semi-permanent basis. The smart money says he’s part of a pseudo DH platoon with Brandon Moss where Bonifacio gets the majority of the plate appearances. Bonifacio, in his small sample size, has fared better against right-handers this year and has been split-neutral in the power department. Moss slugs almost 55 points higher against right-handed pitching in his career so he’ll get some of those starts. Bonifacio can spell Cabrera every once in a while in right, and can maybe give Gordon the night off in left when the Royals have someone like Trevor Cahill and his 26 percent fly ball rate on the mound.

(A Bonifacio-Cabrera corner tandem wouldn’t work with Duffy and his 41 percent fly ball rate. You could maybe get away with it as most of the balls hit in the air against Duffy go to center field, but as the leader of the staff, he should merit the best defense possible. Besides, he gets plenty of action in shallow left that it could be a dangerous defensive alignment.)

The move still represents enough of an upgrade that it’s a good one for this team. The challenge will be to share the playing time among Cabrera, Moss, Gordon and Bonifacio, but these things seem to have a way of working themselves out in the long run. Besides, a little depth in August and September is never a bad thing.

Cabrera is owed around $5 million for the rest of the year before he returns to the free agent market. The Royals will pay about half of that amount. After seeing what the Tigers got in return for JD Martinez where the Diamondbacks picked up all the remaining salary, the Royals desire to lessen the impact to payroll meant a prospect with a perhaps little higher upside was shipped to the White Sox. Clint Scoles had the write-up on what it means to lose last year’s top draft pick AJ Puckett.

For the rest of the fallout, Terrance Gore loses his spot on the 25-man for Cabrera. That is obviously the correct move. It’s difficult to justify Gore on a 25-man roster. Having a pinch running specialist on a three man bench seems misguided. He’s a weapon for sure, just one that makes a little more sense when the rosters expand in September. We will see him again in about a month.

Everything hinges on the upcoming series against Team X!

This is the most important road trip of all-time!

The most amazing rose ceremony ever!

Sorry.

The hyperbole machine remains in overdrive for the Royals as they have embarked on their most important road trip of 2017 and have opened with five wins in six games. Hell yeah, wins are strongly encouraged.

Friday saw the Royals power their way to a 4-2 win. Jason Vargas had a very Jason Vargas start where he got plenty of soft contact. Salvador Perez destroyed a windshield on the other side of the Monster and Mike Moustakas hit his 30th home run of the season. The Balboni Watch is officially on. For real, we need to start a pool or something to guess when the record falls. With two months to go, it would be a major disappointment if Moustakas didn’t club at least 40 dingers. And it would probably spell not so good things for the Royals offense.

Saturday’s game was a hot mess. Ten innings in just under five hours and the Royals, despite scoring eight runs, couldn’t come out with the win. They twice lost two-run leads before surrendering on a play that was eerily reminiscent of the Hosmer Dash in Game Five of the 2015 World Series. The stakes were a little lower, but still, this team was playing for a tenth consecutive win. Everything matters!

With their winning streak derailed, the Royals wasted little time finding their proper mojo with an eighth inning rally to conquer the Red Sox by a 5-3 margin. The unlikely heroes were Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon, who were responsible for driving in all five runs. Gordon’s two-run triple to the triangle off left-hander Robby Scott was especially delightful, given his struggles all year. He was on that pitch in a vintage Gordon sort of way.

Cleveland’s own nine-game winning streak ended on Sunday, so the Royals were finally able to pick up a game on the leaders in the Central. Of course that was after losing a game the night before, so even though the Royals are 9-1 over their last 10 games, they’re somehow only treading water. Better than sinking.

It all brings into focus how the AL Central is going to play out over the next two months. The Tigers are demoralized and unfocused. The Twins are feeling the gravitational pull of their overachievement. The White Sox aren’t thinking about anything but 2018 and beyond. The race is down to the Indians and the Royals. These two teams face each other 10 more times, but the real edge may come down to who can dominate the three bottom-feeders of the division. The Royals don’t get back to divisional play until another trip to the South Side in mid-August. They finish with 23 of their final 30 games against the Central. Meanwhile, Cleveland has 21 of their final 30 against the division.

Yes, it’s not too early to focus on what Cleveland is up to in the division.

Sunday was greeted with another pre-deadline deal when the Royals acquired outfielder Melky Cabrera for the second time.

Former general managers have opinions.

“I understand #Royals going all-in, but they’re not beating #RedSox,#Astros,#Yankees in postseason. It’s all for naught.” @Jim_BowdenSXM

— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) July 30, 2017

The idea the Royals should dismantle and regroup for the future could only be reached by someone who bloviates for a living. The Royals have made a pair of pre-deadline deals and haven’t disrupted their farm system in any major way. They haven’t acquired the impact of a Johnny Cueto or a Ben Zobrist, but maybe the Royals will be fine with the moves that have been made. Do you think the Royals are a better team today than they were last week? That’s the important question. It certainly feels that way. At any rate, it’s asinine to suggest a team two games back in the division should sell.

Even if the Royals don’t win the division, the Wild Card is still in play. Sunday night the Royals were 2.5 games up for the second spot, just a half game behind the Red Sox. You know, the team someone thinks the Royals cannot beat, yet they just took two of three from and could have swept. On the road. The only thing that matters is getting to the postseason. That’s the singular focus. Worry about who your team needs to beat once they qualify for the tournament. As we learned in 2014, October momentum is a wonderful thing.

Bah. It’s silly to need to justify these trades. The “buy or sell” question was settled sometime in June, but the last week has underscored that the Royals are serious about going for it with this team for one final time. This is the way it should be. This group has given us a helluva ride the last four years. It would have been a shame to dismantle the team piece by piece in an attempt to build something for the future. The present is good enough.

The Royals will reportedly pay about $2.5 million of the remaining money on Cabrera’s contract, bringing the total added in the last week to more than $4 million.

I imagine Cabrera will take at bats away from all three of Alex Gordon, Brandon Moss and Jorge Bonifacio, but I would guess Bonifacio is impacted the least given his improvements both offensively and defensively. His .296/.327/.500 line in 114 plate appearances against lefties will give him an edge over both Moss and Gordon against southpaws. I’m not entirely sure where Cabrera will fit in the lineup, but I think you could make an argument for him to hit at the top in the number two spot or after Moustakas in the number seven spot if they want to leave Bonifacio at the top. Either way, this gives the Royals a solid top seven on most nights, which can be very difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate.

The acquisition of Cabrera is sort of an homage to the Royals of the World Series seasons for a couple reasons. The reason on the field is that Cabrera just doesn’t strike out. This year, his strikeout rate is 12.1 percent, and that’s nothing new. It was lower last year and is in line with his career rate of 11.9 percent. That will represent an improvement in that category over whoever he replaces in the lineup on any given day. Additionally, there’s the aspect of clubhouse chemistry. That’s something I didn’t believe in very much until I had the chance to be inside the Royals clubhouse during the championship years. Getting a player as respected and well liked as Cabrera is a big pickup.

It’s not like the Royals got him for free, though. They had to give up their first pick from last season, A.J. Puckett. He, of course, wasn’t a first round pick, but he was their first pick. When I’ve seen Puckett, I’ve seen a pitcher better than the mediocre numbers he’s put up, so I probably like him more than most, but a college pitcher with a 3.90 ERA and an only decent strikeout to walk ratio in a pitcher’s park isn’t very encouraging. He could end up a workhorse in time, but I think his ceiling is number three starter and his likely outcome is back of the rotation arm or middle reliever.

Davis was the Royals 8^th round pick in 2015. He’s a big lefty with some potentially good stuff, but he hasn’t had the results either. He’s currently posting a 4.83 in low-A as a 23-year old. The strikeouts are there and the walks are low enough, but he’s giving up a ton of hits and appears to be a pretty big project for the White Sox.

In all, giving that up for a player who can help the Royals reach the postseason and hopefully advance deep into the postseason is a deal you make every day of the week. It also highlights just how difficult a market it is for teams looking to sell rental bats as Cabrera isn’t great, but he’s certainly good enough to help just about every team and was only able to bring back this haul. I was worried they might give up too much for Cabrera if they traded for him, but I loved the idea of bringing him back. Having seen the return, I have to say I really like this move for the Royals and think that with the other move with the Padres, they’re in the driver’s seat for another trip to the postseason.

Take a look at the starting pitching options on the trade market.

Here are the position players I think they will be targeting in the next few weeks, listed alphabetically:

Matt Adams – Things haven’t exactly gone as planned for Adams, who burst onto the scene in 2013 with a solid .284/.335/.503 season with 17 homers, but he didn’t really build on it. Now in his age-28 season, he’s been given an opportunity with the Braves and has been outstanding, hitting .292/.338/.608 with a .305 TAv and 13 homers in 186 plate appearances with them. The Braves are trying to make it work with Freddie Freeman at third and Adams at first, but I can’t imagine they’d turn down the right offer for him. And he’s under team control for next season when the Royals might find themselves needing a stopgap first baseman.

Jay Bruce – I think the Royals have been rumored to be in on Bruce for the last 28 seasons, but I can’t confirm whether or not that’s true. He’s had a nice year for the Mets, hitting .266/.334/.538 with a .302 TAv and actually playing not horrible outfield. He has 23 homers and will strike out a bit but he has decent strike zone judgment and power that will play anywhere. He has about $6 million left on his deal, so he’s a little expensive, but I think this could be a decent fit.

Melky Cabrera – This one is kind of a longshot, but the Melkman has had a decent season, hitting .286/.332/.416. His RBI numbers are inflated by some crazy hitting with runners in scoring position, but he’d be an upgrade over what the Royals have gotten from the DH spot. He has about $7 million left on his deal this season, so the White Sox would need to eat some money and there’s the whole trading within the division thing, but he’s at least someone to think about for a minute before moving on.

Ezequiel Carrera – While this year is a bit of an aberration for Carrera in terms of overall numbers, he’s been a contributor the last two seasons from an OBP perspective. His .270 TAv would be a career high, but for a guy who can handle center at times and either corner, he’s a really nice fit for this team. Plus, he’s under team control through 2019, which is nice considering he’ll stay relatively cheap through arbitration. He’s not a perfect fit, but his rough defensive numbers aren’t in line with what he’s previously displayed, so he’d help on both sides of the ball.

Zack Cozart – This is the one that’ll make people happy. I really don’t see the Royals moving away from Alcides Escobar, but a guy can dream, right? He’ll likely cost way too much in terms of prospects, but he’s hitting .316/.394/.547 with pop and playing good shortstop. How great would this be?

Rajai Davis – Davis is having a terrible season, and I don’t think his acquisition would actually be as a starter, but it would be nice to have a guy who can handle center to back up Cain for when he gets ejected and/or injured. He’s coming off a decent enough year with Cleveland, and given how bad he’s been, the Royals may be able to get him for an old Aaron Brooks baseball card.

Jarrod Dyson – Here’s my favorite. He’s on his way to a career high in plate appearances and is hitting .258/.340/.391 with, yes, five home runs. The offense isn’t what you acquire him for, but he’s done a really nice job this season and is showing that his .340 OBP and .388 SLG last year is no fluke. He swings at strikes and he uses his speed quite well. Defensively, the Royals could put Dyson in right field, move Bonifacio to the DH spot and get back to having that amazing outfield defense. With just a few months left before reaching free agency, the cost to acquire Dyson likely wouldn’t be exorbitant. I think this is a move that could really help the team.

Carlos Gomez – If the Rangers sell, Gomez is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He’s hitting .248/.328/.477 with a .270 TAv, so he has some pop and can play solid defense. He hasn’t played much right field, which is where he’d need to be in Kansas City, but you’d think he’d be able to pick that up pretty well. He fits in pretty well with the Royals as he doesn’t have great strike zone judgment, but he makes it work when he’s going well. He’s owed about $5.5 million the rest of the season, so between that and his lack of control, I bet he wouldn’t be too terribly expensive.

Dee Gordon – I didn’t want to include him in this list, but since his name is in rumors connected to the Royals, I figured I better. He’s known as a very good defender at second and has put up a .295/.342/.358 line, so he’d fit well at the top of a lineup with that OBP and his blazing speed. He also doesn’t walk or strikeout much, so as a player, he’s kind of made for the Royals. That said, he’s owed more than $40 million through the 2020 season, which is a lot to pay for a player who has topped a .400 SLG just once in his career. He’s also coming off a year where he was suspended for PED use. I’m not saying he shouldn’t get to play anymore, but that has to factor into the analysis. Honestly, I just don’t see it because of the money, but I guess he would be an upgrade for the Royals right now if they acquired him.

Matt Joyce – Joyce is a perennial favorite of mine, even when struggling. It’s because he knows the strike zone. Last year, he posted a .403 OBP, and while he’s not near that this year, he’s showing off his ability to work a walk again with a .220/.330/.409 line. He has some pop, but he’s not very good defensively, so it becomes the same pick your poison the Royals currently have with their outfield and DH spots, but he’s also signed for next season, which is nice.

Jed Lowrie – He’s had a really nice start to the season, hitting .279/.346/.458 with a .275 TAv and has been okay at second base. The thought here is to slot him at second, move Whit Merrifield to right field and Bonifacio to DH. I suppose you could just slot Lowrie at DH as well with his not being so great defensively, but either way would likely work. He has just about $3 million left on this year’s deal and has a really reasonable $6 million club option for next year, which could be quite useful given the uncertainty around third base in 2018. He knows the strike zone well and has some pop. He could also be a basically perfect number two hitter for this club. There will likely be a fair amount of demand for him, so he may fall outside the Royals prospect price range.

Nick Markakis – I don’t make the rules, and the rules state that Markakis has to be on any list where the Royals are searching for offensive help. While his lack of power is pretty alarming, he’s settled into a solid average/good OBP guy who I think would be a nice fit in the number two spot for the Royals. He’s hitting .284/.364/.393 this year with a .273 TAv. He’s expensive with $5 million owed this year and another $10.5 million next season, but that might keep his price down. He’s not nearly the defender he once was, so you don’t get an upgrade there, but this might not be the worst thing in the world, though he wouldn’t be my first or even second or third choice.

Seth Smith – If you showed me two sets of stats and one was Smith’s while the other was Joyce’s, I probably wouldn’t have been able to tell you which was which before Joyce’s big OBP year last year. I’m just being honest. They’re similar players, though Smith doesn’t have the same strike zone judgment that Joyce does. Still, he’s hitting .259/.329/.440 this year with a .262 TAv. He’s not a great piece, and won’t help the defense, but he’d be an improvement over what the Royals have gotten from the DH spot. He’s owed a bit more than $3 million the rest of the season, which is quite reasonable, so maybe he’d be a fit.

The list isn’t very deep, but that’s partly because they likely won’t be looking for anything other than a way to upgrade their DH role. My choice would definitely be Dyson, who we know would be a huge clubhouse boost and would turn the outfield defense into something very, very special.