Once the game starts, it seems managers have very little impact. They can call on bits and pieces of strategy – a stolen base, a sacrifice bunt, etc. – or they can move personnel incrementally with a pinch hitter or a pinch runner. The area where all managers make their mark is with the bullpen. As we’ve seen, bullpens are fickle creatures. One year, they’re lights out and leading a team to October glory. The next, they’re merely pedestrian. Still, it’s the manager’s job to get the matchups correct. Using a bullpen is about setting up the situation so the pitchers succeed.

You know from following the Royals all season that Ned Yost kept his starters on a short leash. Gone were the days where the goal for the rotation to net 1,000 innings. It was replaced by a realpolitik style of management that was instead about survival. Getting through nine innings isn’t always so easy. Especially when your starting pitching is a crapshoot from night to night.

The stats back up the eye test. According to The Bill James Handbook, Yost was the most likely manager to get his starters out of the game before high pitch counts impacted his pitcher. Last year, Yost only allowed two of his pitchers to go more than 110 pitches in an outing. Ian Kennedy threw 111 pitches in a start against the Angels on April 16. In that outing, he allowed just two hits and two walks while whiffing 10 and going eight innings. He didn’t get the pitcher win, though. That went to Kelvin Herrera as Royals won 1-0, on an Alcides Escobar walkoff single.

The other start where a Royals pitcher threw more than 110 pitches was on September 6 when Jason Hammel got through six innings of work, allowing just two runs. Like Kennedy five months prior, he required 111 pitches while allowing nine hits and six strikeouts.

And that’s it. A total of two games where the Royals starters threw more than 110 pitches. The sweet spot for Yost seemed to be at the arbitrary century mark. His starters tallied more than 100 pitches in a start 36 times. Again, only twice did those pitchers extend beyond the Bill James defined “Long Outing” of 110 pitches. It’s a different game.

If Yost is keeping his starters on a short leash, it makes sense to discover he’s leaning on his bullpen more than ever. Indeed, Yost summoned a fresh bullpen arm 538 times last year. That’s a ton, but it wasn’t the most in baseball (Don Mattingly led the way in Miami going to his bullpen 580 times), although it was the most Yost had ever done it in his 14 year managerial career.

Of those, Yost went to a reliever who had pitched the day before 120 times. That was the most in the majors. Here’s how they fared.

The Royals 4.18 ERA when pitching on no rest was third worst in the AL, ahead of only Houston and Detroit. When those are the only teams you’re better than in a particular split, I’m not sure there are any sound conclusions to draw. Baseball happens, man.

Examining the table above, maybe in retrospect it wasn’t such a great idea throwing Peter Moylan and Kelvin Herrera when they had pitched the previous day. Both found outs more difficult to come by and were more likely to surrender the home run when working on no rest. On the other hand, the target of your bullpen ire, Joakim Soria, could more than hold his own when pitching without rest.

Certainly, the Royals bullpen of 2017 was a shadow of its former dominant self, and if the starters are unable to get deep into games (both in innings and as seen above on pitch count), it’s going to expose a shallow pool of relievers. Yost may not have wanted to go to Moylan or Herrera so frequently when they hadn’t had a proper amount of rest. Circumstances may have said otherwise.

(Quick aside: One of Moylan’s outings with no rest was easily my favorite relief appearance by a Royal this year. On September 23 against the White Sox, Yost summoned Moylan to face Tim Anderson with two runners on base and no one out. He threw exactly one pitch and hit Anderson. He then gave way to Scott Alexander. Somehow, it was the fourth time last year a reliever was brought into a game, threw one pitch, hit a batter and was removed.)

The Royals were the only team in baseball that didn’t record a save where the reliever pitched for more than an inning. Obviously, it’s not a common occurrence these days, but the average team had five outings where a reliever went more than an inning to collect the save. Even with noted Cyborg Wade Davis in the bullpen, Yost has been reticent about leaning too hard on his Saveman. The Royals had five outings where the save was earned with more than an inning of work in 2015 and 2016 combined. Some of that likely had to do with the fact the Royals suspected Greg Holland was pitching on borrowed time for most of 2015. Then again, when you have a three inning plan to cover the final nine outs, it’s not like you’re going to lean heavily on one particular pitcher.

In the larger picture, none of the above is a signal as to how Yost will manage his bullpen in 2018. There will be some new arms to go with the old guard and again, it will take some time to mix and match and figure out roles. Still, it can be interesting to see how it worked (or didn’t) in the past. The 2018 Royals will need more innings out of their starters and more reliability out of their bullpen if they’re to push above the .500 mark.

But anyway, I’m not really here to talk about the guys who did get offers, but rather those who didn’t and what may come of them. Let’s take a look at each free agent in alphabetical order. All potential teams are not including the Royals.

Melky Cabrera

Cabrera couldn’t be offered a QO because he was traded midseason and a player must spend the entire year with one team to get the offer. He wouldn’t have anyway, but it’s good to know the skinny. Cabrera came to the Royals at the deadline and looked good at the plate for awhile, but ultimately hit just .269/.303/.399 with the Royals and provided some truly awful defense. He was decent with the White Sox, but I’m not sure what his market is and I definitely don’t think the Royals are interested. They have Jorge Bonifacio and Alex Gordon in the corners as well as Jorge Soler, and given that it didn’t work out for two months in 2017, I think they’ll probably look to stay with what they have in the corners. I don’t really know where he fits, but at worst, maybe he can pick off a team that missed out on what they really wanted and find a deal late in the offseason.

Possibilities: Miami, Toronto

Trevor Cahill

Like Cabrera, Cahill couldn’t receive a QO and wouldn’t have anyway. He was bad for the Royals, but he’s a guy who I would have some interest in as one of the rotating members of the rotation in 2018. I’m not sure the organization would be too keen on bringing him back because of what he did in Kansas City after the deadline, but a guy who can get ground balls and can be effective in relatively limited work can Have some value. I don’t think the Royals are the team to sign him, but he’ll get a one-year deal somewhere, maybe even back in San Diego.

Possibilities: Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), Cincinnati, Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay

Alcides Escobar

Escobar could have gotten a qualifying offer, but given the fact that he’s been one of the worst offensive players in baseball for the last three seasons, I just don’t see it. I think there is value in Escobar because having a guy you know will go out there and play a solid shortstop every single day is a luxury not a lot of teams have. Look at the best free agent shortstop, Zack Cozart (apologies to Dusty Coleman). He’s played 243 games the last two seasons. Escobar does that in winter ball alone. Still, even with that value, he doesn’t provide a ton else, so committing payroll and, maybe more importantly, a roster spot to him is a poor decision. Some team will give him a deal. I fear that team will be the Royals. I hope I am wrong.

Possibilities: Oakland? San Diego?

Mike Minor

There was some discussion about whether or not Minor should have been given a qualifying offer. The argument is that he’s likely going to make more on the open market than the $17.4 million, so he’d likely turn it down. And even if he didn’t, a good reliever on a one-year deal is a nice trade chip. That argument as a whole makes me laugh. Minor was fantastic for the Royals in 2017. His 2.86 DRA was in line with some of the better relievers in baseball and even better than many of them. Even so, a qualifying offer never made sense. He’d be silly to turn it down. Even if he gets the four years and $28 million projected by MLB Trade Rumors, by accepting the deal, he’d basically be banking on himself to make an additional $10.6 million over the next three seasons following 2018.

If you believe in yourself, you’re taking that bet and taking the big guaranteed deal. And as a trade chip in this scenario, Minor would be a great haul if you’re in the race, but Minor at about $300,000 per appearance isn’t going to bring back as much as maybe you’d think. The Royals would likely have to chip in some salary to get any value in return, which, I suppose is fine, but not ideal. No, it doesn’t make much sense.

So here we are, and he rightfully wasn’t extended a qualifying offer. So what’s next? I think the Royals should re-sign him. Something in the neighborhood of 3/24 or so would make a lot of sense. If he’s bad, well, that stinks, but the team probably won’t be very good anyway, so it was a decent risk. If he’s great again, well now we can talk about him as a legitimate trade chip. A season and a half of excellent relief work and a relatively reasonable salary could make Minor a huge pickup at the deadline for some team. If he’s great and the Royals are somehow in contention, then that’s not a bad scenario either.  But if the Royals don’t bring him back, there are about 29 other teams who could use a lefty with his stuff.

Possibilities: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (Cubs), Colorado, Houston, Los Angeles (Angels), Los Angeles (Dodgers), Milwaukee, San Francisco,  Seattle, Texas, Washington

Peter Moylan

Moylan is a workhorse, appearing in 79 games for the Royals last season, and he was the kind of guy every bullpen needs. He’s not really a multi-inning guy, but he limits hits, gets a ton of ground balls and isn’t afraid of any situation. He’d do well to find himself a contender to latch on with, but if he wants to stay with the Royals, I imagine everyone would be happy to welcome him back. He’s never going to cost much, so why not? If not the Royals, he’s in a similar position as Minor. Just about every team would likely make him an offer of some sort.

Possibilities: Literally every team

Jason Vargas

Vargas was the other guy who a QO was a possibility for, but I don’t think they ever thought too much about that given his collapse after the break. My guess is that even after a season with 18 wins, he ends up netting a contract similar to what Edinson Volquez got from the Marlins. The Royals may be the team to give it to him, and that’s fine, if they feel confident he can give them 300 innings or so over the course of the deal. In the right situation, I think Vargas could thrive again. Give him a manager not afraid to go to his bullpen in a ballpark that is a little more forgiving and he could put together a nice season of 25-30 starts averaging 5-6 innings with a 4.25 ERA. There’s a market for that. Put him someplace like Baltimore and he’s going to really miss Kauffman Stadium.

Possibilities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles (Angels), Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle

Free agency starts Tuesday with a five-day exclusive negotiating period that ends next week. On November 13^th, players have to make their QO decisions, which is also the day the GM meetings get underway in Orlando. Action is coming soon. Buckle up.

The formula derailed a bit in 2016, mostly due to injuries. The vaunted HDH trio was no more. Greg Holland was recovering from Tommy John surgery while Wade Davis spent multiple stints on the disabled list for a strained forearm. Luke Hochevar’s season was also cut short with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome while Joakim Soria struggled in his return to the Royals.

The defense took a hit as well. Lorenzo Cain missed plenty of time as did Mike Moustakas. Alex Gordon missed a few weeks, too. And then there was the revolving door at second base. The 2016 season suffered for many reasons, but the strengths of the team was decimated by injuries, and that led to a lot of issues.

This season, the emphasis was a little different. You know how the offensive gameplan changed and we’ve seen that in action. This year’s team looked primed to have its best starting rotation in years and a bullpen that maybe wasn’t quite on par with what previous iterations had looked like. Davis was traded, leaving only Herrera from the great 2014 unit. Soria would need to bounce back and the Royals were counting heavily on a rookie with limited big league experience in Matt Strahm.

Before the season began, my evaluation of the bullpen was that I thought it could be a good unit, but not one of the two or three best in the league anymore. Luckily, it wouldn’t have to be because of the starting rotation. And with a very good lefty specialist in Travis Wood and a very good righty specialist in Peter Moylan to go along with the guys we’ve discussed and the hope of Mike Minor as a reliever, I believed the bullpen could definitely be good enough.

I’m not here to rehash how that all worked out, but I am here to tell you that it took some time and some tweaks, but the Royals are now prepared for the postseason after their trade on Monday. The back of the bullpen still isn’t on par with the 2014 team or even the 2015 team, but few bullpens are. Where they make up for that is in depth, and the depth of this bullpen is kind of crazy.

I imagine the eighth and ninth won’t change. That’ll still be Soria and Herrera, which I’m sure people have opinions about, but both are very good relievers and I would expect them to excel in their roles. Beyond that, the Royals have the ability to mix and match in ways most teams don’t. I’m assuming they continue on with an eight-man bullpen because Ned Yost doesn’t believe in a bench, so let’s take a look at what they have to offer beyond their main setup man and closer.

From the right side, they have some thunder. Admittedly, some of that thunder is from down under and not on the radar gun in Moylan who is just death to right-handed bats (.168/.258/.215). Then they can go to Neftali Feliz, who hasn’t been great on the whole this season, but has thrown some quality innings. Or there is their new acquisition, Brandon Maurer, who throws 97 and might be a small adjustment or two away from being a dominant reliever himself.

From the left side, this is where it gets special. With the addition of Ryan Buchter and the crazy spin rates on his fastball, they have three guys who can dominate a game. Scott Alexander has a 93-95 mph sinker that generates ground balls at a rate rarely seen. Minor has a great strikeout to walk ratio and a 2.69 ERA.

Minor is better against lefties than Moylan is against righties with a .123/.194/.158 line allowed, but he’s held righties to a .678 OPS too. Alexander has actually been hit hard by lefties, but handled righties quite well. And Buchter is excellent against lefties, and he holds his own against righties like Minor.

And let’s not forget the playoff X-factor here, Trevor Cahill. I think one of the added bonuses of acquiring him is the ability to put him in the bullpen come playoff time and let him do his work out there. Before returning to starting this season, Cahill put together a really nice season-plus run with the Cubs as a reliever. His ground ball rate and his ability to get strikeouts, along with being able to get multiple innings in a relief outing, could make him a huge key in a short playoff series.

So yes, the first mission is actually getting to the postseason. None of this matters a lick if they can’t do that, obviously. But once they do, picture the Royals being able to use their starters to get through the lineup twice before turning it over to a bullpen that features three options from the right side and four from the right side before unleashing the power back of their bullpen to close the game down.

Between the bullpen depth giving the Royals the ability to shorten games once again and the Royals finding themselves healthy in 2017, this team looks ready to go for the postseason. It’s a slight variation on a previous formula, but this one sure looks like it might be able to work and make the Royals a matchup nightmare in October.

• The Royals are in a bit of a pickle with their roster. It sure looks like Peter Moylan will be the final reliever, but he isn’t on the 40-man as of right now. The Royals also will have to choose between Whit Merrifield and Christian Colon for the final backup infielder spot. As you know, Colon is out of options while Merrifield can still be sent down this season. So in a way, a trade of Colon or even a DFA sort of makes sense because they need to open up the 40-man spot for Moylan. But does it really make sense to lose Colon when he and Merrifield are similar enough that there’s an easy way to keep both? I don’t think it does. So instead, the Royals will have to find another way to get Moylan onto the roster. My vote would go toward jettisoning Billy Burns off the 40-man either by a DFA or a trade. My reasoning is that Burns is causing a roster crunch at Omaha. If the Royals were to remove him from the 40-man, that would allow them to play Hunter Dozier, Jorge Bonifacio, Bubba Starling, Peter O’Brien and Whit Merrifield in the same lineup. All need regular playing time. You could absolutely convince me to DFA Starling instead of Burns, but there’s still at least elite tools with him that could be useful in September. With Burns on the roster, Dozier likely has to play third which leaves no place for Merrifield, and I’ve mentioned my preference is to keep both Merrifield and Colon.
• One of the most common questions I’ve been asked on radio appearances over the last couple weeks is one that people don’t really want to think about. How far back do the Royals have to be around the deadline in order to start trading off parts? That answer isn’t a simple one because there are a lot of factors. If, say, Moose and Hosmer were hurt for a month or two each but both are back, maybe they feel they have a run in them. If they’re six games out but playing at an 88-win pace, the odds are that someone will fall off. But assuming everything is humming along normally – the Royals are healthy, no competitor is playing way over their heads – I think the Royals will have to be at least six games out of a Wild Card spot for them to sell. If they’re 42-46 at the break, it’s time to sell. Now, I have my doubts that they will because they can point to their record at the break in 2013 (43-49) and just out of the break in 2014 (48-50) as proof that this group of players can make a run. Still, that to me is about where it lies. If they’re 43-45, I’d give them a week or two after the break to make a quick run, but I’d still probably end up selling at that point too.
• I’ve also been wondering what the odds are that Mondesi sees the minor leagues again for anything more than a potential rehab assignment. My guess is they’re pretty good because, as you know, I don’t think he’s ready to be a big leaguer. But I also believe that he could be hitting .210/.240/.335 or something like that and stay in the big leagues all year. In a way, his spot on the roster sort of depends on the rest of the roster. If they’re winning and he’s playing good defense, the Royals have shown they’ll stick with an underperforming player (think Omar Infante in general or Alcides Escobar in the leadoff spot). That doesn’t mean it’s the right move, but it’s what they’ve done in the past. If they aren’t winning or they aren’t winning quite enough, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Mondesi in the minors by June 1^st. But what’s interesting is because the upside is there and because Ned Yost is Ned Yost, I think there’s about a 15 percent chance Mondesi is hitting in the leadoff spot by then, too. If he’s hitting something like .265/.305/.390 and Alex Gordon struggles even a little bit, I don’t think Yost would hesitate to get the speed at the top of the order. The Royals best bet, as Craig said yesterday, is for Gordon to get off to a fast start to make sure that he stays at the top of the order because he’s the best option for the team.
• I completely understand that there’s a viewpoint of the 2017 Royals team where they aren’t very good. The starting rotation is decent enough but with considerable downside. The bullpen only has one truly proven commodity in it. The lineup starts with a player coming off his worst year who is now outside his prime years and is littered with what amounts to one hit wonders. But I still really like this team. I see OBP and guys who will work the count at the top (along with some power). I see power in the middle. I see speed at the bottom, though those last three in the lineup until Soler gets back could be a black hole. I see three guys in the rotation who can get a strikeout per inning or thereabouts. I see the other two as quality veterans who can provide innings. I see a bullpen that includes a rookie who took the league by storm last year along with a great situational lefty and a very good situational righty. The two big question marks to me are Mike Minor and Joakim Soria, but if either one can turn in an above average season, I think the bullpen looks really good too. So yeah, I get it if you don’t like this team, but I’m a fan of what I’ve seen.

So, what have we learned?

Frankly, I’m not sure. Danny Duffy was named the Opening Day starter. That makes so much sense it almost falls into the dog bites man category of news, barely registering a blip on the Royal-O-Meter. Duffy was the best Royals starter last year, signed an extension during the winter, and represented the Royals with distinction pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. What’s not to like?

Duffy will be followed by Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel to finish off the opening series in Minnesota. Then, Jason Vargas and previously named fifth starter Nate Karns will take their turn against the Astros in Houston with Duffy making the start in the series finale on Sunday. When the Royals open at home on April 10 against Oakland, Kennedy will be on the mound.

As for the rest of the staff, we know the Royals will carry seven arms in the bullpen. We also know Joakim Soria will get the ball in the seventh, the eighth inning belongs to Matt Strahm, and Kelvin Herrera inherits the closer role. Chris Young, Mike Minor, and Travis Wood are the guys who will chew up sundry innings which mean there’s room for one more. I’ll leave the roster prognostications to Clark, but I’d lean to Peter Moylan for the last spot. We should learn soon, given Moylan has an opt-out on Wednesday. If anything, it seems we’re going to find out how many left-handed relievers are too many. (The answer will be four.)

It seems kind of obvious, yet should the Royals add Moylan, they would have to make a corresponding move to get him on the 40-man roster. Such is the conundrum of roster math.

Still here?

The lineup is the lineup. Which is the lineup. Seriously. At this point, even the last fan on the bandwagon can go around the horn and name the starting eight. Wait a gosh darn second, eight? Yes, eight. Because as usual, the Royals still have some thinking to do before they can lock in their keystone. You know the names. How about some spring training stats!

There is absolutely no reason to read anything into spring training stats. They’re only included here because the Royals have mentioned that spring performance will be one factor they weigh when determining the winner of this amazing competition.

If spring stats were the only consideration, Mondesi would be dropping a deposit on a seven-month lease in Kansas City. The power potential we’ve heard about for years seems so tantalizingly close. Except this is Arizona and the ball tends to fly through the thin desert air. Again, not to read too much into the small sample and spring competition, but it should be noted that Mondesi has just a single walk against 12 whiffs.

With the Royals talking up “inventory” and with Christian Colon and Cheslor Cuthbert out of options, it’s probable they head north with the team, despite coming in third and fourth statistically out of a four-man competition. If either player was exposed to waivers, they would almost certainly be claimed given their salary status and major league experience. If the Royals look to trade either, it seems unlikely the return would commiserate with how the club values either. It would be better than losing someone to waivers, but it’s difficult to imagine a trade of either would net a player who could impact the major league roster in a meaningful way.

So what about Whit Merrifield? Oh, yeah. He has options left just like Mondesi. Makes you think.

The bet here is the Royals roll out of spring with Cuthbert, Merrifield, and Colon as the non-platoon, platoon at second. There will be anger when the Royals option Mondesi, but with the hacktastic methodology at the plate, and given how overmatched he was last summer, he could use some more seasoning in Triple-A. Besides, if he rakes in Omaha, these roster problems always seem to have a way of working themselves out in a respectable way. Colon and Merrifield can play multiple positions and with the addition of Brandon Moss, the Royals have backup coverage around the diamond. Besides, we know how Ned Yost rolls once he finds his lineup. The bench rarely comes into play. There’s enough versatility here the Royals can mix and match if they’re forced to play the depth.

Which is basically where we were when camp opened six weeks ago. Opening Day can’t get here fast enough.

A top two of Zimmer, who is currently assigned to NW Arkansas, and Staumont would give Omaha their best twosome since June of 2013 when Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were fronting a rotation that would eventually win a PCL title.

Race Back On – Despite Raul Mondesi’s outstanding spring, his lingering back problems have re-opened the door open for the second base competition. With that opening, Christian Colon took advantage, going 5 for 9 through Saturday with a home run and a double. That home run was the first spring home run of his career which seems amazing considering the light air that Surprise and other Arizona sites offer. Should Christian or Whit the second base job the Royals could keep Raul in Omaha for much of the year, gaming service time should he stay through July while also helping him refine his pitch recognition and plate approach.

Peter Moylan Photo credit: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports

Final Bullpen Spot – After learning he had diabetes, Scott Alexander has adjusted his diet and turned back into the pitcher that I thought he could be a year ago. A lefty with a good slider and fastball, Alexander is giving Peter Moylan, a very reliable pitcher a year ago, one heck of a battle for that final bullpen spot. With a lack of a 40 man spot opening up unless the Royals make a trade it could prove difficult for Moylan to earn a spot on the Royals opening day squad. With an opt-out date of March 28th available what may decide Moylan’s fate is the battle for the fifth rotation spot as much as his personal battle with Alexander. The Royals bullpen as it stands would be lefty heavy should Nathan Karns secure the fifth starter spot, leaving a possible bullpen of Herrera, Strahm, Soria, Wood, Young, Minor and Alexander. Having a heavily lefty weighted pen versus the Indians would be nice but against teams like the Twins, Tigers and White Sox it could leave the Royals at a disadvantage considering the majority of those team’s power hitters dig in the right-handed batter’s box. Finding a spot for Moylan and his .583 career OPS versus RHH is something the Royals most certainly should be seeking.

Khalil’in it – We are starting to see more and more buzz about Royals 3rd round draft pick Khalil Lee with tweets like these from BA writers J.J. Cooper and Bill Mitchell.

We here at BPKC have been driving the Khalil Lee fan bus since his selection with the 103rd pick last year. More and more of the national writers are starting to come around now and a likely assignment to Lexington, a good hitting environment, while still not even 19 years old should do nothing to temper expectations. There are a couple of intriguing questions to look for in regards to Lee should he break with the Legends.

Do the Royals widen his stance? This is something the Royals have done with a few prospects and while it leads to a more balanced swing, I believe it also saps the explosiveness. If Lee maintains his current patient approach then I see no need to make any changes in his swing until proven different.

How often does he play center? The Royals have moved Marten Gasparini to center field, a spot better suited to his athletic ability and limited baseball background. Will this limit Lee’s playing time in the more premium defensive spot?

Center of Attention – Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweeted out some good information on Donnie Dewees chances to play center field the other day. While a seemingly innocent comment to some, Dewees ability to play center would be a revelation to the organization that lacks playable depth at the premium position beyond Paulo Orlando in 2018. When the Royals made the trade for Dewees, most reports said the speedster with plus speed that lacked the arm to play the position, leaving him as a corner outfielder that lacked pop. If Dewees can handle center then his career prospects take a major step up.

Lacking in Locals – A year removed from a stellar local prep class, the ’17 version is lacking in MLB prospects. At this point, it is extremely doubtful we see a local prepster in the Top 150 picks of this year’s draft. The top “local” selections appear to be college talent in Missouri’s Tanner Houck, local guy via LSU, Alex Lange, and big slugging Jake Burger of Missouri State. The Royals aren’t a favorite to select Burger with the 14th pick, but that doesn’t mean he can’t swing it, hitting .351/.444/.784 entering Sunday’s game with 9 home runs.

Not quite a local guy is Iowa Western’s talented lefty Dan Tillo. A former Iowa Mr. Basketball who works in the 91-93 mph range with his fastball while tossing a low 80s slider that earns plenty of swings and misses (32 in 20.1 IP) at the JUCO level. Lefties that register in at 6’5 235 lbs. with athleticism aren’t everywhere in this game and should intrigue the Royals with a possible buyout of his Arkansas commitment.

Transactions – The Royals traded Brandon Dulin to the White Sox for a player to be named later or cash consideration. The first baseman from a Kansas City JUCO and Lee’s Summit North high school, Dulin hit .258 with 8 home runs in 2016 between Lexington and Idaho Falls after being selected in the 12th round of the 2013 draft.

Reliever Brandon League was released from his minor league contract on Sunday by the Royals. Along with the bullpen crunch at the major league level, the Royals will face critical decisions between the quality of pitchers they have at Triple-A and Double-A. Do they keep multiple minor league signees and push a pitcher or two back to High-A when they deserve a spot on the NW Arkansas roster? How does that affect his development in the future? These are the decisions that organizations are faced with prior to and during the season.

For Royals minor league and draft coverage follow me on Twitter @ClintScoles

Featured Photo – Credit: © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

• Let’s start with the pitching side and talk about Nate Karns and his performance on Wednesday against the Cubs. Now, spring training stats just don’t matter a lick, but getting through two innings, striking out three and walking nobody on 19 pitches is still something you like to see. When the Royals signed Travis Wood and said they were going to give him an opportunity to win a starting job, I mentioned that it would be in the best interest of the team if Wood did not win that job. It’s just that Karns actually has the ability to be a middle of the rotation starter while Wood is likely nothing more than back-end guy. There’s nothing wrong with back-end guys. Every team needs solid starters in the four and five spots, but Karns can be more than that and he showed it in his spring debut. Of course, the knock on Karns is that he can’t get deep into games, which isn’t on display in the early part of spring (or the late part really, but a little bit more then), so we don’t know, but it would behoove the Royals if Karns kept pitching like that this spring and made it so they couldn’t take him out of the rotation.
• We all know about the second base competition in camp this spring, but there’s a lot of numbers thrown at the competition out of the bullpen. I think we know pretty well that Kelvin Herrera, Matt Strahm, Joakim Soria, Chris Young and either Karns or Wood will be out there, but that leaves two spots. If he’s healthy, the sixth spot is going to go to Mike Minor. Of course, he mentioned the other day that he doesn’t really know how to pitch out of the bullpen, so that might cause a minor problem there. I guess stay tuned on that. Anyway, that leaves one spot for one of the 278 pitchers vying for it. I think that number is right, but I might be off by a bit. I advocated for Kyle Zimmer to take that last spot if he’s healthy and I still believe that. My guess is that even if he is healthy, he’ll end up in Triple-A to start the season unless he just has an unbelievable spring. To me, the favorite for the role has to be Peter Moylan who took a minor league deal to come back after posting a 3.43 ERA in 50 appearances for the Royals last year. Moylan isn’t flashy, but he earned Ned Yost’s trust in 2016, which I think gives him a leg up on the competition.
• Over at the main site, all 30 teams were ranked based on their farm systems (subscription required), and the rankings were almost as unkind to the Royals as PECOTA. The Royals rank 27^th in the organizational rankings, which is pretty well on par with where everyone ranks them. On the surface, that’s not good. Beneath the surface, that’s not good. But Keith Law did make a good point in his rankings that there is actually upside in this system. I’ve been thinking a lot about that and I’m wondering if this might be one of the better bad farm systems you’ll see. Part of why I say that is that a guy like Raul Mondesi would be a legitimate top 100 prospect and probably the top organizational prospect if he had a few less big league at bats. Because he lost his rookie eligibility, he can’t be ranked on prospect lists. But for all intents and purposes, he is still part of the Royals farm system. So that helps boost things a little bit. But in addition, there actually is quite a bit of upside throughout the system. A guy like Khalil Lee could be a top three organizational prospect by the midseason rankings. Someone like Josh Staumont could get his control under, well, control and become a legit top-100 prospect rather than a fringe guy. If Zimmer is healthy and not in the big leagues, he’s immediately actually a top prospect again. So yes, the Royals system is down drastically, but it’s nice that there’s at least some upside and even beyond just those three I mentioned.
• I guess I should bring him up because he’s the talk of camp so far. Peter O’Brien is a very powerful man. He probably has the most power the Royals organization has ever seen, which is pretty darn cool considering got him for a low-level reliever without much in the way of a strikeout pitch. O’Brien does two things prolifically. He hits the ball a long way and he strikes out. He doesn’t walk. He’s not especially good defensively. But he does hit the ball a long way. I’m not saying he can’t become something. Mark Trumbo is an example of a player who used to swing at everything and has slowly become more and more patient. You’ll never confuse Trumbo with peak Barry Bonds, but he doesn’t get himself out nearly as much as he used to and he will work a walk. O’Brien gets himself out too much, plus there’s no spot on the big league roster for him. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a great acquisition by Dayton Moore to see what they can get out of him. And, worst case scenario, he’s a great September toy for Yost to have on his bench. People rave about what the speed of Terrance Gore can do, well O’Brien is a one-tool guy right now as well, with a skill that can be just as beneficial. Obviously you can’t just call for a HR from him like you can a stolen base when you pinch run with Gore, but if the Royals are down by two in the ninth and have two on and one out, O’Brien is a hell of a guy to call to the plate. Who knows? Maybe his ability to hit the ball a long way could lead to a playoff spot in that final month.

• I wrote back in December that the Royals should use Jorge Soler as their leadoff hitter. It was an unorthodox thought and one that the Royals seem highly unlikely to employ, but after the signing of Brandon Moss, I think it actually makes even more sense. See, before they signed him, Soler looked like one of key power sources in the middle of the lineup. It would have been tough to move that from the middle of the order where he could have driven in some runs. Now, though, Moss is in Kansas City, and he can be a big power source for the Royals in the middle of that lineup. I wouldn’t complain about Alex Gordon at the top either, for what it’s worth, but with Yost loving the alternating construction of a lineup that could go R-L-R-L-R-L in the top six spots without having to think too hard, Soler makes some sense to me. That’s not to say I think this will actually happen. I’m fully prepared for Alcides Escobar or Whit Merrifield to be in the batter’s box when that season opens on April 3^rd, but a guy can dream.
• In the introductory press conference for Moss, Dayton Moore mentioned that he still planned to add another pitcher. He wasn’t sure if it was a starter or reliever or if that pitcher would be acquired via free agency or trade. As Craig Brown noted on Twitter after the comment was made, the 40-man roster is full, so a trade would make sense from that perspective. Of course, guys get shoved off there all the time and the Royals have some prime candidates. To me, the best option has been Jason Hammel all along. He’s not an ace, but he can slot in the middle to back of a rotation and provide some quality innings to help the Royals alleviate some of the stress the bullpen has had to deal with the last couple years. I mentioned in my write-up of the Moss deal that Cheslor Cuthbert could be trade bait for a starting pitcher. That was met with some skepticism, but I think what we have to keep in mind is that the likely fifth starter at this moment is Chris Young. I love what Young did for the Royals in 2015, but his 2016 was nothing short of a disaster and, at his age, it’s more likely 2015 was the last hurrah than 2016 was an aberration, so an improvement on him is certainly a possible return for a 24-year old third baseman with plenty of team control who has shown he can at least hold his own playing every day in the big leagues. But still, they should just get Hammel signed and call it a day.
• I found Moore’s wording interesting regarding this potential move as well. It definitely seemed like it was a starter or a reliever, rather than a starter and a reliever, but I really think they need both. I feel like we’ve gone over the list of available relievers about 30,000 times since the start of the off-season, but there are still options available. My guess is starter or not, Luke Hochevar finds his way back to the Royals. It just makes too much sense. But I still think they need one more. Joe Smith is hanging around out there after performing well for the Cubs down the stretch in 2016. He’d be an interesting pitcher to look at. Peter Moylan performed well for the Royals and he expressed some interest in a return. Joe Blanton, as I mentioned last week, probably commands a little too much, though I wonder if that remains as true every day he doesn’t sign somewhere with spring training fast approaching. Given the details of the contract the Rockies gave to Greg Holland, I completely get why the Royals didn’t end up with him. Still, they need some help back there. And if you were wondering, there are still guys out there who could start and relieve like Travis Wood and even Yusmeiro Petit, so that may be the direction the Royals end up going.
• One of the most common questions asked when I talk about the Royals on the radio is what is the biggest key to the season. Obviously that’s a difficult question to answer because you think that one thing needs to happen, but if it doesn’t, there are ways to compensate, so in a way, there is no one biggest key. But in another way, the biggest key is Jorge Soler needs to become the beast he was expected to be when the Cubs signed him. Let’s say he puts up his career average numbers over 150 games and he hits .260/.330/.435 with 19 homers. I mean, yeah, that’s decent enough, but it’s not enough. We need to see the guy who came up on fire in 2014 and hit .292/.330/.573 in 24 games. We need to see the guy who hit .258/.348/.515 in 36 games after the break in 2016. If he can be someone to pencil in the lineup (at the top or the middle) just about every day who can give consistently good at bats and hit for some real power, I think that will drive the Royals offense. You might remember that I wrote prior to the 2016 season that Kendrys Morales was the straw that stirred the Royals offensive drink (or you might not, that’s okay). I think Soler is that guy this year. If he can help to anchor this offense and be a big contributor, they’re going to score some runs. If not, they could be in trouble again.

You probably immediately thought of Wade Davis, and then Kelvin Herrera. Easy enough. How about that third one? Luke Hochevar? Matt Strahm? Brian Flynn? Joakim Sori-okay, okay, I’ll stop. But who is it? Who can it be now?

What would you say if I told you I could make an argument that the third-best Royals reliever has been Peter Moylan? You probably want to call me crazy. I can see it in your eyes.

Evaluating relievers is always kind of tricky because of the small sample sizes, and certain people hold certain statistics in a higher regard than others. In other words, there are a few candidates against whom I wouldn’t strongly argue. Hochevar and Flynn have thrown more innings, and Strahm has been outstanding in his first few appearances, but I think I’ll give the edge to Moylan.

The Royals picked up Moylan this winter and invited him to Spring Training, but he didn’t break camp with the big-league squad, so he opted out of his contract. After re-signing with the organization on a minor-league deal, Moylan was impressive in Omaha, allowing one earned run in 12 appearances prior to being called up to Kansas City.

Moylan’s time with the Royals hasn’t been spectacular every time out, entering Tuesday’s game with an unremarkable 3.72 ERA in 29 innings. As unsightly as that number is, basically all of the damage has come in two appearances. He allowed three runs in an inning against the Tigers in June, and four runs in one-third of an inning against the Indians shortly after the All-Star Break.

Obviously relievers’ numbers can easily be skewed by just a few bad outings, so I’m not saying you can simply ignore those two appearances. But at the same time, Moylan has allowed five runs in the other 27.2 innings. What’s even more impressive, and what puts Moylan among the best in this bullpen, is how well he’s pitched in high-leverage situations.

According to Baseball Reference, Moylan has faced 16 batters in plate appearances they identify as “high leverage.” Those batters have collected two hits in 16 at-bats, with five strikeouts. Granted, that’s not a big sample, but those plate appearances happened, and largely because of that, Moylan has been a big help to the Royals’ ability to win close games.

Among relievers, only Davis and Herrera have a higher Win Probability Added than Moylan’s 0.7. I’d ask you to raise your hand if you expected Moylan to be one of the most effective relievers in the pen this season, but we all know that would be silly.

He’s come through in the clutch, and kept games close, holding opponents to a .499 OPS when the score is within one run, and .506 when the score is within two runs. He’s allowed a .541 OPS in medium-leverage situations. Basically the only times Moylan has struggled this season have been when the game was no longer in doubt, as he’s allowed an .837 OPS in low-leverage situations.

Some of Moylan’s effectiveness comes from proper usage by Ned Yost, as the vast majority of his high-leverage appearances have come against right-handed batters, who have a .536 OPS against the sidearming Aussie. As evidence of that dominance, here’s Moylan making a right-handed batter look very, very foolish with his slider:

As you can see, that was a tie game, in the seventh inning. The Royals’ bullpen did eventually lose the game, but Moylan did the job he was called to do. When he comes into close games, Moylan can unleash his slider against those right-handed hitters, and they have yet to do anything with it. They’re hitting .133 when a plate appearance ends with a slider. The combination of his arm angle and plenty of glove-side movement makes life miserable for same-side batters.

The pitch is much less effective against lefties, but that hasn’t really hurt the Royals all that much, in the grand scheme of things. Moylan has faced 39 lefties this season, and they’ve crushed him to the tune of a 1.055 OPS. But because Yost limits his exposure in tight situations, the negative impact on the team isn’t significant.

Coming into the season, many people were wondering if the Royals could find yet another useful relief arm on a minor league deal. Thanks to a funky delivery, a wipeout slider, and intelligent managing, Moylan has found himself as the man at work in that very role.

With the 2-1 triumph on the South Side, the Royals have won seven of their last 10. They have won three consecutive series. Ten games ago, they were seven games behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings. Now they’re 2.5 games back.

Seriously. Exhale. Please. You’re turning blue.

You’re Looking Gnar, Braj

The first half of this game was all about Danny Duffy. Put on a 60 pitch limit for his second round as a starter, Duffy once again dazzled. He finished 4.1 innings, allowing four hits, walking none and striking out three. If you’re the type to pick at nits (stop it, it’s going to scar) you can look at his pitch count through the first two innings and use that as ammo in your “Duffy can’t go deep into games argument.” Or perhaps you should just save it.

In the first, Duffy threw 21 pitches. Of those, 18 were strikes. White Sox hitters spoiled nine of them, fouling them off. It was frustrating, to be sure. Yet Duffy never wavered. He battled, and battled, and battled some more. Finally getting out of the frame, retiring Melky Cabrera on a foul out after eight grueling pitches. In the second, it was more of the same. After getting Brett Lawrie on one pitch to lead off the inning, Duffy required 18 more to get the next two outs. This is just who Duffy is at this point.

The good news (and there was a lot of good news on Saturday) is that Duffy battled and kept his focus. Too often we’ve seen an inning get away from him as he’s had difficulty putting away the opposition. Not on Saturday. It was fun to watch.

While We’re Talking About The Pitching

Let’s stay on this topic for a moment. Because the bats aren’t much to write about anyway.

So this bullpen. Whoa. On Saturday, Ned Yost knew he had to keep at least two of his relief bullets – Kelvin Herrera and Luke Hochevar – in his bullpen revolver. Both had pitched frequently over the last week and needed a day of rest. That meant Yost had to do something he’s not quite comfortable doing, and that’s managing his pen on the fly.

After Duffy recorded the first out of the fifth, Yost summoned Peter Moylan. Moylan allowed a single to the first batter he faced, then used a wipeout slider to record back to back whiffs to close out the inning. In the sixth, Moylan pitched around a spot of two out trouble to keep the White Sox off the board. Overall, Moylan threw 13 sliders and got four swings and misses on that pitch.

The plan was probably for Joakim Soria to pitch the eighth, but he was summoned early, when Brian Flynn couldn’t record an out in the seventh. Soria entered with the bases jammed, but got a double play (scoring the run) and another ground out to escape with minimal damage. It was vintage Soria. And with just 10 pitches required, Yost sent him back out for the eighth. Yeah, that made me a bit nervous, especially when he fell behind Jimmy Rollins 3-0 to open the inning. But he came back and whiffed Rollins on a spiked curve and got another pair of ground outs to get the game to the ninth and Wade Davis.

Not exactly like Yost drew up, but close enough.

Lean Back

OK. Let’s talk offense. It’s a short conversation. The Royals did Royal things in the first. Alcides Escobar swung at the first pitch of the game, put the fifth in play, advanced to third on a Lorenzo Cain single, and scored on an Eric Hosmer sacrifice fly.

In the sixth, Cain parked one in the bleachers. The way he was swinging the bat against Miguel Gonzales, it sure felt like he could do some damage if he got hold of one, and he did.

The Royals have scored 11 runs in their last four games. They’ve won three. Hey, whatever works.

Welcome Back, Moose

Mike Moustakas returned to the lineup after spending time on the DL with a broken thumb. Let’s just say his timing was a bit off.

In the corresponding move, the Royals sent Cheslor Cuthbert back to Triple-A. It was a move the Royals had to make as there’s no room for Cuthbert in Kansas City with the Royals carrying eight pitchers in the bullpen. With Hunter Dozier in Omaha, it will be interesting to see if Cuthbert gets some time at second.

Web Gem

Escobar booted a grounder earlier in the game, but once again had a spectacular moment with the glove.

Up Next

The Royals go for the sweep at 1:10 with Yordano Ventura on the mound. Carlos Rodon takes the ball for the Sox. Read about that match-up in our series preview.